The Bullpen Thread

BaseballJones

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At risk of becoming a broken record, why would they have Edro in the bullpen having never thrown an inning of relief, instead of putting the guy in relief who was actually a dominant relief pitcher in the American League last year?
I cannot imagine them putting Rodriguez in the bullpen. Unless something bad happens, it appears the rotation for the playoffs will be:

1. Porcello
2. Price
3. Buchholz
4. Rodriguez (or flipping 3 and 4)
 

lexrageorge

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At risk of becoming a broken record, why would they have Edro in the bullpen having never thrown an inning of relief, instead of putting the guy in relief who was actually a dominant relief pitcher in the American League last year?
I wouldn't worry. Any thoughts of EdRod going to the bullpen were finally dispelled yesterday.
 

nothumb

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Taz isn't getting much playing time but he's been pretty solid when he has. Are they just trying to rest him for October?
I suspect yes. Given JF's tendency to defer to vets, I have to believe he's at the front of the Barnes / Kelly / Taz group of RH middle guys.

Here's how I would break it down as of today:

Locks (4) - Kimbrel, Koji, Z, Ross. Seems obvious.

Probables (3) - Pom (experience as a reliever, ability to go long), Scott (hard to believe given his path but he's probably the one true LOOGY JF trusts), Taz (per above).

Fringe (3) - Barnes, Kelly, Hembree. I think HH is clearly last of these three right now and Barnes' usage seems to suggest he's ahead of Kelly, but a lot of people seem higher on Kelly. If they had to decide today I'd guess they go with an 8 man pen and Kelly is in.

How could this change? Well, I think it's anyone's guess how they view Taz / Barnes / Kelly and they could shuffle those based on performance over the last few weeks. I think you could also see one of Pom or Scott dropped in favor of another from that group of righties, particularly if Pom looks really cooked.

So really just three questions in my mind:

1. 7 or 8 man pen?
2. Pecking order for Taz, Kelly, Barnes
3. Do both Pom and Scott make it?
 

SpaceMan37

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I suspect yes. Given JF's tendency to defer to vets, I have to believe he's at the front of the Barnes / Kelly / Taz group of RH middle guys.

Here's how I would break it down as of today:

Locks (4) - Kimbrel, Koji, Z, Ross. Seems obvious.

Probables (3) - Pom (experience as a reliever, ability to go long), Scott (hard to believe given his path but he's probably the one true LOOGY JF trusts), Taz (per above).

Fringe (3) - Barnes, Kelly, Hembree. I think HH is clearly last of these three right now and Barnes' usage seems to suggest he's ahead of Kelly, but a lot of people seem higher on Kelly. If they had to decide today I'd guess they go with an 8 man pen and Kelly is in.

How could this change? Well, I think it's anyone's guess how they view Taz / Barnes / Kelly and they could shuffle those based on performance over the last few weeks. I think you could also see one of Pom or Scott dropped in favor of another from that group of righties, particularly if Pom looks really cooked.

So really just three questions in my mind:

1. 7 or 8 man pen?
2. Pecking order for Taz, Kelly, Barnes
3. Do both Pom and Scott make it?
Taz last pitched on the 18th and there have been a few games where almost everyone pitched. Hembree even seems to be ahead of him since he got 5 high leverage outs yesterday.
 

grimshaw

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Taz last pitched on the 18th and there have been a few games where almost everyone pitched. Hembree even seems to be ahead of him since he got 5 high leverage outs yesterday.
Agree - Taz just hasn't been tested, and he would have by now if they were looking ahead to the post season.
I'd rather have Hembree for the tough RHH matchups before Ziegler time. If they go with 7 men, I'd rather have Kelly.
 

nothumb

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Taz last pitched on the 18th and there have been a few games where almost everyone pitched. Hembree even seems to be ahead of him since he got 5 high leverage outs yesterday.
I mean, I was answering a question about whether they are holding Taz back to save him for October. So to say "his usage suggests he's further down the depth chart," in response is kind of weird. Yes, of course, if his usage directly reflects JF's view of him then he is like 10th or 11th on the reliever depth chart.

I think Barnes or Kelly could still easily be ahead of Taz for a spot, or could pass him in the next week. But I would be shocked if HH makes it ahead of any of those guys, barring injury or a total meltdown.
 

Devizier

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An extended bullpen is a nice problem to have. The Red Sox can take advantage of this (should they need to) by changing the roster on a series-to-series basis.
 

jtn46

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I mean, I was answering a question about whether they are holding Taz back to save him for October. So to say "his usage suggests he's further down the depth chart," in response is kind of weird. Yes, of course, if his usage directly reflects JF's view of him then he is like 10th or 11th on the reliever depth chart.

I think Barnes or Kelly could still easily be ahead of Taz for a spot, or could pass him in the next week. But I would be shocked if HH makes it ahead of any of those guys, barring injury or a total meltdown.
Hembree has just atrocious splits and if he finds his way onto a postseason roster should face zero lefties. I think if he does make a roster it's specifically to get hitters out that will not be hit for, Donaldson, Bautista, Trumbo, Machado, Cabrera.
 

grimshaw

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I think Barnes or Kelly could still easily be ahead of Taz for a spot, or could pass him in the next week. But I would be shocked if HH makes it ahead of any of those guys, barring injury or a total meltdown.
A case for Hembree over Taz at least is that if neither are likely to be used in a high leverage situation, then why not keep Hembree as a specialist since Taz has no favorable split (at least this year). Heath can also go multiple innings which Taz doesn't do very often or very well. Taz just doesn't really have a situational use at this point. He's not the sort of guy you bring in with guys on. That has been Barnes this season.

Either way, I don't think Barnes and Kelly are that big an upgrade where it's obvious. I think they make it ahead of him, but it's not like Barnes is the go to guy he was in the first half.
 
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nothumb

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A case for Hembree over Taz at least is that if neither are likely to be used in a high leverage situation, then why not keep Hembree as a specialist since Taz has no favorable split (at least this year). Heath can also go multiple innings which Taz doesn't do very often or very well. Taz just doesn't really have a situational use at this point. He's not the sort of guy you bring in with guys on. That has been Barnes this season.

Either way, I don't think Barnes and Kelly are that big an upgrade where it's obvious. I think they make it ahead of him, but it's not like Barnes is the go to guy he was in the first half.
I think if Taz makes it it's because JF thinks that his midseason swoon was due to injury / dead arm and that he is more or less back in form after some rest. Granted he would be in middle relief rather than setup, but as basically a one inning reliever without a pronounced split (if anything he has a bit of a reverse split for his career).

I'm not saying I agree with this, I'm just saying that I doubt JF is comparing them based on their full-season stats. Personally I would rank Kelly and Barnes ahead of both of them so I think it's kind of a moot point, but my guess is that JF will give Taz a couple of hi lev spots in the final week and put him on the roster if he does well.
 

joe dokes

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To me, the decision not to use Taz this weekend suggests that Farrell is going to give him a bit more of the extended rest that rejuventated him in the past (he hasn't pitched since the 18th) and see if it has a positive impact by the end of this week.
 

RedOctober3829

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My pen would be the following.

Kimbrel-CL
Koji-relief ace role. First sign of trouble from 7th inning on in a close game you bring him in regardless of who is coming up.
Ziegler--right handed specialist. Could come in highest leverage situation with RHB's up. Should face minimum number of lefties.
Kelly--6th-7th or even 8th if Ziegler is used earlier
Ross--6th-7th against lefties
Barnes--6th/7th
Scott--LOOGY
Pomeranz--long man
 

simplicio

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I'd be totally fine seeing Hembree over Taz against Toronto, where the front half of the order is all righties and Taz has historically struggled. Texas and Baltimore each feature 3 righties in their 1-4 and a balanced back half, so that's less clear cut. And definitely keep Hembree away from Cleveland, who alternate up and down the lineup.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I think one of the tipping points is going to be whether it's 12 or 11 pitchers. If just 11 they can carry a 5 man bench .. With the 5th guy hopefully someone who can pinch run. Sadly that won't be Moncada as he's here now solely to watch and learn.

Over 162 you need at least a 12 man staff. But with only 4 starters needed they can go to an 11 man staff.

The relievers on the bubble would seem to be chosen based on the matchup I would think. There's not much to choose between Barnes and Kelly. And Hembree is even more redundancy.

So .. For me 7 relievers

Locks
Kimbrell
Koji
Ross
Ziegler
Scott

And, depending on the opponent two of
Pomeranz
Kelly
Barnes
Tazawa
Hembree

Given Tazawa's recent non usage one has to think that JF has given up on him - despite his recent improvement.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Koji-relief ace role. First sign of trouble from 7th inning on in a close game you bring him in regardless of who is coming up.
I have trouble seeing this as the best way to use a 41-year-old just a month back from a long injury layoff. I would rather use him as a consistent 8th-inning guy where he knows when he's coming in and has plenty of time to get loose.

The news about Pomeranz's sore arm should simplify things, though I greatly fear they'll slap him on the roster anyway and then not use him. But if they do keep him off the roster, then this seems like a pretty straightforward 8-man pen:

Kimbrel 9th
Koji 8th
Ross 7th-8th
Ziegler GB/ROOGY
Barnes/Kelly 6th-7th
Scott LOOGY
one of Hembree/Tazawa

It's conceivable they could manage without that last slot and go with a five-man bench and seven-man pen.
 

simplicio

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Does a five man bench even make sense before the WS? I'd rather have the extra arm, given potential questions about the 2-4 starters.
 

dynomite

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Does a five man bench even make sense before the WS? I'd rather have the extra arm, given potential questions about the 2-4 starters.
It's an interesting question.

In the 2013 ALDS the Sox opted to carry a 5-man bench in large part to accommodate base theft specialist Quentin Berry.

The 2016 Sox don't have a dedicated pinch runner. Moncada might be fast enough to play that role, but has seemed too raw to trust.

On one hand, it's air to wonder who will pinch run for Papi if he gets to 1st or 2nd late in a tight game. On the other, the injuries to our starting rotation argue in favor of adding a 12th pitcher. We may, after all, be relying on Clay Buchholz to go deep into a playoff game.

For the record, Sean McAdam is in favor of a 12th pitcher: http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/sean-mcadams-projected-red-sox-postseason-roster
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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On one hand, it's air to wonder who will pinch run for Papi if he gets to 1st or 2nd late in a tight game.
Not every pinch running situation has to be a recreation of The Steal. I think so long as the runner represents some sort of upgrade to Ortiz, both in the health and speed department, that's good enough for about 98% of any such situations. That means that whoever is on the bench, whether it's Chris Young or Brock Holt or even Aaron Hill, gives them a better chance to score than Ortiz does.

I'm frankly more in favor of carrying the 12th pitcher just because other than pinch running for Ortiz, there really shouldn't be much need for a lot of maneuvering with the lineup during a game. Seven of the nine lineup spots aren't going to be pinch hit for, with the two that are being the ones with the built in platoons already. Other than an injury situation, there's little chance the 3rd and 4th guys (including the back-up C) get into games, let alone a 5th guy.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Not every pinch running situation has to be a recreation of The Steal. I think so long as the runner represents some sort of upgrade to Ortiz, both in the health and speed department, that's good enough for about 98% of any such situations. That means that whoever is on the bench, whether it's Chris Young or Brock Holt or even Aaron Hill, gives them a better chance to score than Ortiz does.

I'm frankly more in favor of carrying the 12th pitcher just because other than pinch running for Ortiz, there really shouldn't be much need for a lot of maneuvering with the lineup during a game. Seven of the nine lineup spots aren't going to be pinch hit for, with the two that are being the ones with the built in platoons already. Other than an injury situation, there's little chance the 3rd and 4th guys (including the back-up C) get into games, let alone a 5th guy.
It doesn't have to be THE STEAL, but I would like a free taco. Is that asking for too much?
 

Zososoxfan

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Not every pinch running situation has to be a recreation of The Steal. I think so long as the runner represents some sort of upgrade to Ortiz, both in the health and speed department, that's good enough for about 98% of any such situations. That means that whoever is on the bench, whether it's Chris Young or Brock Holt or even Aaron Hill, gives them a better chance to score than Ortiz does.

I'm frankly more in favor of carrying the 12th pitcher just because other than pinch running for Ortiz, there really shouldn't be much need for a lot of maneuvering with the lineup during a game. Seven of the nine lineup spots aren't going to be pinch hit for, with the two that are being the ones with the built in platoons already. Other than an injury situation, there's little chance the 3rd and 4th guys (including the back-up C) get into games, let alone a 5th guy.
So much this. The extra arm is far more helpful to this club than the extra bench spot.
 

grimshaw

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Young
Back up catcher
Holt
Hill
Pretty much all you need. The bench guys really are just bench guys in this series. The pinch hitting options are LF and 3B, and honestly, I'd rather just save Young for Shaw instead of Beni if it comes to a pinch hitter.

They don't have a specialized pinch runner but that could also be filled by Beni/Young/Holt.

I don't want to see a Hill or back up catcher at bat the whole series unless something goes wrong.
 

nvalvo

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Young
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Holt
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Pretty much all you need. The bench guys really are just bench guys in this series. The pinch hitting options are LF and 3B, and honestly, I'd rather just save Young for Shaw instead of Beni if it comes to a pinch hitter.

They don't have a specialized pinch runner but that could also be filled by Beni/Young/Holt.

I don't want to see a Hill or back up catcher at bat the whole series unless something goes wrong.
I'm not sure, but I might bring Marco instead of Hill. He doesn't hit from the right side, like Hill, but he is a better hitter overall at this stage, can backup 2B/SS/3B and is fast, even if he isn't a great base stealer.

It would really have helped if Yoan were more ready.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Hill did hit a pinch hit homer yesterday and had a big pinch hit double in San Diego so he's not a complete zero at the plate. Why don't you ever want him to bat?
 

grimshaw

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I'm not sure, but I might bring Marco instead of Hill. He doesn't hit from the right side, like Hill, but he is a better hitter overall at this stage, can backup 2B/SS/3B and is fast, even if he isn't a great base stealer.

It would really have helped if Yoan were more ready.
I'm a Marco fan, but doesn't that seem unlikely given his usage?
 

grimshaw

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Hill did hit a pinch hit homer yesterday and had a big pinch hit double in San Diego so he's not a complete zero at the plate. Why don't you ever want him to bat?
I mean, he wasn't going to go o'fer the season, but his wRC+ is 58 with the Red Sox.
They don't have much of a choice vs. a lefty starter (thankfully the Indians don't have one), but I'd rather see Young pinch hit for Shaw in the late innings.
 

moondog80

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Odd circumstances for sure, but last night seemed like classic Kelly to me. Strikeout--looks great. Pop up--looks great. Hard contact--hope it's at someone. He gives up a lot of loud outs, and then some, like last night, that aren't outs. I'm really not sure what role he would have on the playoff roster.

15.2 IP in relief, 13 hits, 1 HR, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.15 ERA.
 

HomeRunBaker

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To me, the decision not to use Taz this weekend suggests that Farrell is going to give him a bit more of the extended rest that rejuventated him in the past (he hasn't pitched since the 18th) and see if it has a positive impact by the end of this week.
Or maybe Farrell didn't wish to concede games down the stretch. I can't see a scenario where Taz is even considered based on performance or how Farrell has utilized his pen down the stretch. Then again I don't get all the Kelly love here either so who knows.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Probably because Kelly has been very good, but people want him to be perfect. He has a little bit of the Clay factor going for him, people just don't trust him and are expecting the other foot to drop at any moment.
 

Adrian's Dome

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The bullpen version of Joe Kelly has been fantastic. Last night, Kimbrel set him up to fail and he was only one pitch (granted, it was a fat one) away from getting out of it. That guy deserves a spot.

In the playoffs, you're going to be riding Kimbrel, Koji, and Ziegler like horses. Kelly gives you another power arm (of which you can never have too many) for the 5th/6th/7th.
 

Plympton91

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Odd circumstances for sure, but last night seemed like classic Kelly to me. Strikeout--looks great. Pop up--looks great. Hard contact--hope it's at someone. He gives up a lot of loud outs, and then some, like last night, that aren't outs. I'm really not sure what role he would have on the playoff roster.
So, a lot like Barnes, except with Barnes you'd replace the strikeout and popup with two walks?
 

crystalline

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Wow, people are still defending Kelly after last night? The grand slam came off only one bad pitch, that is true. He did seem to have a little better control last night, but to me it looked like Kelly was taking some off to avoid walking batters. Unfortunately that pitch was wild in the zone and got crushed.

I still think Kelly is not trustworthy due to his poor control.



15.2 IP in relief, 13 hits, 1 HR, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.15 ERA.
On one hand - Forget stats and watch each pitch. How often does Kelly hit the target put up by the catcher? Those data will be way more informative than data on PA outcomes, which is a smaller data set.

On the other hand - Give us a confidence interval or other measure of variability on those numbers. Single numbers (e.g. 13 hits, 1.15 ERA) are useless without a measure of variability.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Wow, people are still defending Kelly after last night? The grand slam came off only one bad pitch, that is true. He did seem to have a little better control last night, but to me it looked like Kelly was taking some off to avoid walking batters. Unfortunately that pitch was wild in the zone and got crushed.

I still think Kelly is not trustworthy due to his poor control.





On one hand - Forget stats and watch each pitch. How often does Kelly hit the target put up by the catcher? Those data will be way more informative than data on PA outcomes, which is a smaller data set.

On the other hand - Give us a confidence interval or other measure of variability on those numbers. Single numbers (e.g. 13 hits, 1.15 ERA) are useless without a measure of variability.
Except he didn't provide you with single numbers, he provided you with an entire line. IP, H, HRs, BB, and Ks along with ERA. Of those numbers, the only one that's not useful when evaluating a somewhat small sample size for relievers is the ERA, and nobody believes Kelly is a guy that can consistently put up a 1.1 ERA. However, I do think he can be a guy that consistently delivers a K/9 above 9 and a WHIP not significantly above 1, and for the 5th or 6th guy out of the bullpen, that's not only acceptable, it's fantastic.

Last night he got torched on the HR, but he also got a fairly weak popup and caught a batter looking on a dirty low and outside fastball on the black. He's never going to be Captain Consistency, but his stuff seriously plays up in the pen and his mistakes will be mitigated in shorter outings. Last night was one the bad, but why does one home run in a pressure situation outweigh the other 15IP? It shouldn't. He wasn't the guy that put on four baserunners without recording an out.

Simply, let's put it this way: if Kimbrel never touches that game, Kelly comes in, records two easy outs, gives up a meaningless solo shot, and most likely records the third out. Game over, save, and everyone goes "meh, that HR sucked, but no big deal, he's pretty much been fantastic since coming back." But because Kimbrel loaded them up, Kelly can't be trusted? I don't buy that.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Simply, let's put it this way: if Kimbrel never touches that game, Kelly comes in, records two easy outs, gives up a meaningless solo shot, and most likely records the third out.
There is no way to know what would have happened had Kelly started the ninth. For one thing, among many, he wouldn't be facing the same batters he got to pop up and strike out
 

Adrian's Dome

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There is no way to know what would have happened had Kelly started the ninth. For one thing, among many, he wouldn't be facing the same batters he got to pop up and strike out
Thanks for the insight? The actual point was that you can't fairly judge Kelly on Kimbrel's shitty outing.

A single there ties that game. Even Pedro in his prime allowed singles here and there. Are you going to fault a pitcher for giving one up when put into a bases loaded, no-out situation? No, that'd be unreasonable, so why is the HR all that different? Yeah, he threw one fat pitch in a pressure situation, but I'm more impressed he got the first two batters out in timely fashion without letting a run in. The home run sucked, but again, that loss isn't on him, so why does that change anyone's view of if he's trustworthy or not? Why does the HR bear more weight than the K and the popup when a tie or loss was the probably most likely scenario when he came in?

He's the 5th option out of the pen at this point behind Kimbrel, Koji, Ziegler, and Ross, and he's been great. We all know his control isn't perfect, but he can miss bats and the hit rate is acceptable. That's a guy I want in my pen.
 

E5 Yaz

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Thanks for the insight? The actual point was that you can't fairly judge Kelly on Kimbrel's shitty outing.
If that's the actual point, then don't bother with hypotheticals that can't be proven -- and particularly don't bother making it the closing paragraph of your argument, because all you do at that stage is take away from more pertinent issues. As for the "insight" remark: If you post shit, expect to be called on it.

I agree that Kelly shouldn't be judged by, really, one pitch. His stuff, to me, seems a better fit than that of Barnes for innings through the postseason.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I said it a few months ago to every person I passed by on the street until I was thrown into the psyche ward for a bit.... but the Sox really need to give up on Henry Owens Starting Pitcher and start him in AAA right out of the gates as Henry Owens Relief Pitcher.
He could be dominant there.
And... could potentially work his way back into a starting role down the line (who knows?), but he has the potential to be a shutdown reliever and the Sox have enough AAA guys to be starters 7,8 next season
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Wow, people are still defending Kelly after last night? The grand slam came off only one bad pitch, that is true. He did seem to have a little better control last night, but to me it looked like Kelly was taking some off to avoid walking batters.
I was watching on Gameday so I didn't get a clear sense of this, but given that he was brought in to take over after a closer meltdown, my first assumption was that he didn't get the normal amount of time to warm up. Can anybody say whether this occurred?
 

capecodjr41

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If that's the actual point, then don't bother with hypotheticals that can't be proven -- and particularly don't bother making it the closing paragraph of your argument, because all you do at that stage is take away from more pertinent issues. As for the "insight" remark: If you post shit, expect to be called on it.

I agree that Kelly shouldn't be judged by, really, one pitch. His stuff, to me, seems a better fit than that of Barnes for innings through the postseason.
His curve looks nasty - almost like a slurve if there is such a thing anymore. I like the way they set up the first batter he faced Wednesday against the MFY. Two tight diving curves for strikes, then 98 on the black low and away for the backwards K. He has given up some hard line drives and the slam but I think he's earned himself a spot. Barnes has been with the big club much longer but does he have a secondary pitch as good as Kelly's curve right now?
 

BaseballJones

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If that's the actual point, then don't bother with hypotheticals that can't be proven -- and particularly don't bother making it the closing paragraph of your argument, because all you do at that stage is take away from more pertinent issues. As for the "insight" remark: If you post shit, expect to be called on it.

I agree that Kelly shouldn't be judged by, really, one pitch. His stuff, to me, seems a better fit than that of Barnes for innings through the postseason.
Merloni on WEEI yesterday was talking about Koji vs. Kelly. How in the world can Koji throw letter-high 85 mph fastballs and get away with it, while Kelly throws 99 mph gas and it gets absolutely crushed?

Chicks dig the fastball, but it's more about control, location, and deception. Koji has that in spades. Kelly....doesn't.
 

moondog80

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Merloni on WEEI yesterday was talking about Koji vs. Kelly. How in the world can Koji throw letter-high 85 mph fastballs and get away with it, while Kelly throws 99 mph gas and it gets absolutely crushed?

Chicks dig the fastball, but it's more about control, location, and deception. Koji has that in spades. Kelly....doesn't.

Koji HR/9: 1.6
Kelly HR/9: 1.2
 

SpaceMan37

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Merloni on WEEI yesterday was talking about Koji vs. Kelly. How in the world can Koji throw letter-high 85 mph fastballs and get away with it, while Kelly throws 99 mph gas and it gets absolutely crushed?

Chicks dig the fastball, but it's more about control, location, and deception. Koji has that in spades. Kelly....doesn't.
It's all about the spin rate. Koji's is higher than just about anyone else's. There is more movement and it's tough for players to adjust to a fastball that doesn't move like other fastballs.
 

Adrian's Dome

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If that's the actual point, then don't bother with hypotheticals that can't be proven -- and particularly don't bother making it the closing paragraph of your argument, because all you do at that stage is take away from more pertinent issues. As for the "insight" remark: If you post shit, expect to be called on it.

I agree that Kelly shouldn't be judged by, really, one pitch. His stuff, to me, seems a better fit than that of Barnes for innings through the postseason.
What exactly in my post that you decided to take issue with was irrelevant or took away from "more pertinent issues?" The entire point was that it was unfair to judge Kelly on that one outing. The fact is that you, once again, wanted to take a shot at me and nitpick over singling out one sentence instead of actually reading into the entirety of the greater point.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
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What exactly in my post that you decided to take issue with was irrelevant or took away from "more pertinent issues?" The entire point was that it was unfair to judge Kelly on that one outing. The fact is that you, once again, wanted to take a shot at me and nitpick over singling out one sentence instead of actually reading into the entirety of the greater point.
The part I responded to the first time.

Simply, let's put it this way: if Kimbrel never touches that game, Kelly comes in, records two easy outs, gives up a meaningless solo shot, and most likely records the third out.
You've constructed a series of events that simply can't be proven. There's no way of know what Kelly would have done coming in to the start of the ninth ("if Kimbrel never touches that game"). You made the assumption that Kelly would have produced the same results he did as it played out.

Making this the final part of your post -- particularly with the into "Simply, ..." -- it reads like a summation of what you were saying, when it is really an unprovable hypothetical
 

Dewey'sCannon

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It's all about the spin rate. Koji's is higher than just about anyone else's. There is more movement and it's tough for players to adjust to a fastball that doesn't move like other fastballs.
I remember this point being raised as a result of a study earlier this year - it's amazing to me that the TV guys still profess amazement at how Koji can blow guys away with his 86 mph fastball, without any acknowledgement of the reason for it. Are they really all that ignorant (or think that we are)?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
How does he get that spin rate on baseballs that only go about 85 mph?
Cool article here suggests a weak correlation between spin rate and velocity:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/160896926/statcast-spin-rate-compared-to-velocity/

You can see a slight southwest-to-northeast orientation in the fastball scattergram, but it's pretty minor, and the peak spin rate seems to come toward the middle of the velocity range, not at the top of it.

OTOH it's true that you can't see the kind of outlier high spin/low velocity point on that graph that would correspond to what we're reading about Koji here. He's presumably that red dot at around 87 velocity/2400 spin, but if so, there are lots of guys with higher spin than him.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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People can talk about spin rate, but Koji hides the ball as well as anyone in baseball. He takes the ball from behind his head and almost short arms it to home

It's all about reaction time. And Koji plays on that bettwr than anyone in the game