NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time

reggiecleveland · Sep 28, 2016

I do not have the time to read all the lengthy posts, but is the NFL's loss of viewers just part of the competition for entertainment? I know a lot of people that are getting rid of cable. Sports seems the only compelling reason to have cable TV. I used to watch at least two NFL games a week now I only watch the Pats. People are becoming used to watching what they want when they want.

The concussion cover up drives away casual fans, and most important, parents from putting kids in football. You will never convince me that DFG is not a convenient distraction of the concussion problem. There has always been a lot of WWE in the NFL but now MMA offers as close to the real WWE as is possible.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 28, 2016

kenneycb said:
I doubt it since both companies are still private and any other industry source probably has an inherent goal to either goose up the numbers or say it's dying. If I had to guess, the revenue figures are down but profitability, or more likely loss figures, are improved from prior years due to less ad spend, though possibly offset by legal/regulatory related fees.

It's still very much in its infancy and I personally believe this is a "winner take all" industry that will require the merger/buyout of one of the two major firms, but I have a hard time seeing it falling completely. It's essentially a more niche version of fantasy sports, so I see DFS growth to somewhat mirror trends in that industry, especially as it matures.

I know a good number of smart people who feel the same way that you do, but I am struggling with that view.

The opinion of one of my "smart guy" friends is that people know that the house always wins in casinos and they know that poker tables are loaded with sharks at casinos......but they still play, so the DFS situation where people are scared off by the megaplayers will not shake everyone out of the game. To me....I don't see how DFS is profitable without the scale, and with so many other gambling opportunities popping up (I can't believe that for 10 years I ran bets through a human "bet aggregator" who in turn gave bets to a real human bookie.....it seems quaint) I am not sure how these companies are valued anywhere near where they are. So many powerful lobbies - including the leagues themselves, who seem to want a taste of this - want DFS to be regulated out......I'm skeptical of their long term survivability, but I have been wrong before, that's for sure.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 28, 2016

crystalline said:
But that is not the question.
As a fan of Tom Brady, I too hope that the decline in NFL ratings is due to Goodell's actions.

The fact that dehere clarified this to "more people are watching, but they are watching for shorter periods" would indicate to me that this is not a factor.

Plus the whole "no one outside of New England sees DFG as being all on the league"

Drocca · Sep 28, 2016

The best posters in this forum, save Yammer, are now writing incredible pieces for ITP, as well as editing it, designing it, promoting it, podcasting and everything else that goes into a platform like that. I am happy with the trade off, because it's how I prefer to consume content but it is absolutely the biggest reason for the downside in content and views in this forum.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 28, 2016

I occasionally put things in the comments section.

Stitch01 · Sep 28, 2016

kenneycb said:
I doubt it since both companies are still private and any other industry source probably has an inherent goal to either goose up the numbers or say it's dying. If I had to guess, the revenue figures are down but profitability, or more likely loss figures, are improved from prior years due to less ad spend, though possibly offset by legal/regulatory related fees.

It's still very much in its infancy and I personally believe this is a "winner take all" industry that will require the merger/buyout of one of the two major firms, but I have a hard time seeing it falling completely. It's essentially a more niche version of fantasy sports, so I see DFS growth to somewhat mirror trends in that industry, especially as it matures.

Its also hard because there are states missing or restricted (Texas cant play on some sites) so trying to figure out apples to apples numbers is hard. They have also raised the rake over the last year (whether this is or will remain a beatable game is an open question).

Agree that the big two sites will merge sooner rather than later and that its unlikely to fail completely barring regulatory/legal changes as there is a market for the product, but not sure how much growth there is and the ecosystem for players is really, really bad.

Red Right Ankle · Sep 28, 2016

Yeah but pictures of our moms usually get deleted right away.

Give mine a call by the way.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 28, 2016

TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle said:
Yeah but pictures of our moms usually get deleted right away.

Give mine a call by the way.

Hoodie Sleeves · Sep 29, 2016

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:
The fact that dehere clarified this to "more people are watching, but they are watching for shorter periods" would indicate to me that this is not a factor.

Why would that indicate it's not a factor?

It's certainly possible that disinterest caused by whatever can present itself as getting bored quicker, and turning off the tv on games you otherwise would have finished .

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 29, 2016

Hoodie Sleeves said:
Why would that indicate it's not a factor?

It's certainly possible that disinterest caused by whatever can present itself as getting bored quicker, and turning off the tv on games you otherwise would have finished .

I don't think that "anger at Goodell" would manifest itself as someone turning on the tv, and instead of watching two full games, only watch one and a half. If you feel that the Goodell stuff has hurt people's enjoyment of football I wouldn't agree with you, but I would also think it would manifest itself more as people not watching football at all, or at least very very occasionally....so fewer viewers as the occasional fan base would wither. We aren't seeing that.

Quintanariffic · Sep 29, 2016

I wrote inelegantly in a rush. By high share of Latino fans/viewers, I meant that when you look at the composition of fandom in those sports, Hispanics represent a far higher share of fans than their share of overall population.

bosox4283 · Sep 29, 2016

Sorry to ask this question: what is ITP? It's hard to keep up sometimes. Thanks.

mauf · Sep 29, 2016

bosox4283 said:
Sorry to ask this question: what is ITP? It's hard to keep up sometimes. Thanks.

Inside the Pylon.

Red Right Ankle · Sep 29, 2016

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:
I don't think that "anger at Goodell" would manifest itself as someone turning on the tv, and instead of watching two full games, only watch one and a half. If you feel that the Goodell stuff has hurt people's enjoyment of football I wouldn't agree with you, but I would also think it would manifest itself more as people not watching football at all, or at least very very occasionally....so fewer viewers as the occasional fan base would wither. We aren't seeing that.

Yes, more people watching but for less time indicates either dissatisfaction with the product that they are seeing (so they are losing interest more quickly) and/or increasing preference for other choices.

BrazilianSoxFan · Sep 29, 2016

bosox4283 said:
Sorry to ask this question: what is ITP? It's hard to keep up sometimes. Thanks.

maufman said:
Inside the Pylon.

http://insidethepylon.com/

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 29, 2016

TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle said:
Yes, more people watching but for less time indicates either dissatisfaction with the product that they are seeing (so they are losing interest more quickly) and/or increasing preference for other choices.

Agreed, although I am skeptical that they are THAT dissatisfied by the product given the sharp YoY decline. I would think that dissatisfaction with the product would be a slower, steadier decline, more like a trend line than a surging step function. I think that, as much as anything, people are probably enjoying some nicer weather and watching the games on their phones (not sure if those are counted in the ratings) while picking apples or something.

GeorgeCostanza · Sep 29, 2016

I wonder if NFL RedZone channel has experienced similar ratings decline, or have they actually increased given our collective ADHD viewing habits. And if so, could it perhaps be cutting into the standard ratings on the networks? I know I watch redzone far more than I watch non Patriot games at any length.

Drocca · Sep 29, 2016

GeorgeCostanza said:
I wonder if NFL RedZone channel has experienced similar ratings decline, or have they actually increased given our collective ADHD viewing habits. And if so, could it perhaps be cutting into the standard ratings on the networks? I know I watch redzone far more than I watch non Patriot games at any length.

Tangent:

I do not understand the appeal of the RedZone channel other than the lack of commercials. Friends of mine have sworn by it but every time I go over and watch a game it's like we're constantly bouncing and only seeing the same basic red zone plays over and over mixed in with highlights. It's not football.

Marciano490 · Sep 29, 2016

Drocca said:
Tangent:

I do not understand the appeal of the RedZone channel other than the lack of commercials. Friends of mine have sworn by it but every time I go over and watch a game it's like we're constantly bouncing and only seeing the same basic red zone plays over and over mixed in with highlights. It's not football.

Drocca doesn't fast forward the first five minutes of porn so he can get into the scene.

Drocca · Sep 29, 2016

I like a little backstory.

Rough Carrigan · Sep 29, 2016

And a lot of backside.
The bigger the cushion the better the pushin'

sorry.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 29, 2016

Drocca said:
I like a little backstory.

I at least like to know why we are there. The interviews are, to me, the worst. I don't like the 4th wall being broken by someone who might have an STD

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Sep 29, 2016

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:
I don't like the 4th wall being broken by someone who might have an STD

You refer to your mom as "the 4th wall"?

Marciano490 · Sep 29, 2016

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:
I at least like to know why we are there. The interviews are, to me, the worst. I don't like the 4th wall being broken by someone who might have an STD

Interviews like the casting couch stuff, or is there something I'm missing?

shoosh77 · Sep 29, 2016

They're during the credit scenes? Don't tell me you fast forward through the set up and then selfishly turn off it before they roll credits.

Marciano490 · Sep 29, 2016

shoosh77 said:
They're during the credit scenes? Don't tell me you fast forward through the set up and then selfishly turn off it before they roll credits.

It's a stamina thing. I'm done by the time they're on the second position. Am I supposed to just lie there in my filth?

Section30 · Sep 29, 2016

I can see why the casual fan doesn't keep watching. There seems to be more poor games, constant flags, and poor execution by teams.
When I watch replays where a catch isn't a catch, where the spot is off by a foot or more, where the continuous commercials seem to kill of any excitement I'm actually surprised that the decline isn't bigger.

Marciano490 · Sep 29, 2016

Section30 said:
I can see why the casual fan doesn't keep watching. There seems to be more poor games, constant flags, and poor execution by teams.
When I watch replays where a catch isn't a catch, where the spot is off by a foot or more, where the continuous commercials seem to kill of any excitement I'm actually surprised that the decline isn't bigger.

The problem is you can't have so much attention paid to getting things right while at the same time having fans think games are rigged. Either getting things right is sacrosanct and it's worth the delay, or it's all bs and let's not waste time.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 30, 2016

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
You refer to your mom as "the 4th wall"?

Clearly you missed the word "might"

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 30, 2016

Marciano490 said:
Interviews like the casting couch stuff, or is there something I'm missing?

Alot of them start with an interview. They last about 10 minutes and are painfully horrible, and then a guy walks in naked. It isn't really a great concept. Is it as annoying to me as people who make amateur porn who leave kids toys scattered around the room? No. But it is in my top 6.

Marciano490 · Sep 30, 2016

Kids toys in a porn is like getting a nude bathroom selfie with the toilet paper roll in the frame.

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag · Sep 30, 2016

I would argue that it is even worse. Unless the roll is used and in the toilet.

Rook05 · Sep 30, 2016

Drocca said:
Tangent:

I do not understand the appeal of the RedZone channel other than the lack of commercials. Friends of mine have sworn by it but every time I go over and watch a game it's like we're constantly bouncing and only seeing the same basic red zone plays over and over mixed in with highlights. It's not football.

I'm probably in the minority but I find watching "live football" to be a nigh unwatchable experience at this point. Touchdown, commercial, kickoff, commercial, three plays, CHALLENGE, commercial, commercial, four plays, punt, commercial, two minute warning, commercial commercial, HALFTIME!

I don't have Direct TV (and I actually like Comcast) so my choice is between RZ or whatever game is on, which is usually the Broncos or some AFC West team out here. RZ let's me check in on all the games live or semi-live. Admittedly, this is more appealing as I play fantasy football and gamble on some games. It's also much easier to throw RZ on my iPad while I putter around the house, so it doesn't come with the typical spousal stink eye that a three-hour coach potato would.

Beyond this, I usually record night games and start them about an hour in. I realize this is tough for purists who want to see the action as it happens, but a) we're on a 45-60 delay anyway, and b) skipping the commercials AND the dead time between boring plays is absolute gold; the 30 second skip button on my remote is the greatest thing in the world as it turns every game into a Chip Kelly offense! The hour delay usually lets me catch up some time in the fourth quarter so I can experience that "live". The biggest upside of this method: I have yet to see a Peyton commercial all the way through this year.

Playoff games or big games are different in that I'm usually hosting people, but the ability to pause allows us to watch the game on our terms if we're grilling, parenting, or playing some cornhole or shoes out back.

TheRooster · Sep 30, 2016

I think Rook's post nails it as I consume in almost the exact same way. RZ has spoiled us and makes the interminable commercials more glaring.

Drocca · Sep 30, 2016

How do you guys decide which truck to buy?

Rook05 · Sep 30, 2016

simplyeric · Sep 30, 2016

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
You refer to your mom as "the 4th wall"?

This made me laugh out loud in my office. Nice work.

Marciano490 said:
Kids toys in a porn is like getting a nude bathroom selfie with the toilet paper roll in the frame.

But what iif she had those baby wipes you like in the background...?

Freddy Linn · Oct 3, 2016

Just saw a tweet from Jefferies that the NFL accounts for 19% of Q4 network ad spend.

crystalline · Oct 3, 2016

SOSH update:

2015 SOSH NFL Game threads, number of posts, Weeks 2-6:
2100, 1500, 1300, 1600, 2500

2016 SOSH NFL Game thread, number of posts, weeks 2-4:
450, 520, 346 (week 4, as of right now)

OCST · Oct 4, 2016

crystalline said:
SOSH update:

2015 SOSH NFL Game threads, number of posts, Weeks 2-6:
2100, 1500, 1300, 1600, 2500

2016 SOSH NFL Game thread, number of posts, weeks 2-4:
450, 520, 346 (week 4, as of right now)

Interesting and significant but I would think that there are some factors at work besides a decline in interest per se:

-TB suspension temporarily limiting interest in following NFL until he's back

-Red Sox one of best teams in baseball and playoff bound, not dumpster fire, so traffic diverted to main board

-Presidential campaign huge dumpster fire, so traffic diverted to V&N

Just spitballing, no data.

crystalline · Oct 4, 2016

OilCanShotTupac said:
Interesting and significant but I would think that there are some factors at work besides a decline in interest per se:

-TB suspension temporarily limiting interest in following NFL until he's back

-Red Sox one of best teams in baseball and playoff bound, not dumpster fire, so traffic diverted to main board

-Presidential campaign huge dumpster fire, so traffic diverted to V&N

Just spitballing, no data.

Should I check the soccer game threads for comparison?

Kidding. These factors are all possible contributors, and I think the Sox playoff run is significant. The ITP effect contributes too.

rguilmar · Oct 4, 2016

crystalline said:
Should I check the soccer game threads for comparison?

Kidding. These factors are all possible contributors, and I think the Sox playoff run is significant. The ITP effect contributes too.

I would actually be interested in a comparison with college football ratings. Is this a general football trend or is it an NFL thing? I know they are distinctly different entities, and college football has its own issues (booster influence, pay to play, outsized fan expectations to name a few), but declining viewership across the football spectrum could be indicative of a trend against the sport. Declining viewership of just the NFL but not college games could mean the NFL has its own issues to address.

johnmd20 · Oct 4, 2016

OilCanShotTupac said:
Interesting and significant but I would think that there are some factors at work besides a decline in interest per se:

-TB suspension temporarily limiting interest in following NFL until he's back

-Red Sox one of best teams in baseball and playoff bound, not dumpster fire, so traffic diverted to main board

-Presidential campaign huge dumpster fire, so traffic diverted to V&N

Just spitballing, no data.

Agreed on TB and the Red Sox, (not politics, however) but that is still a pretty steep decline of posts.

GeorgeCostanza · Oct 4, 2016

I'm personally contributing to the trend. I was a fairly regular poster in the weekly NFL games thread. This year I'm not and outside of red zone I'm watching way less than I did last year too. I'm honestly not even sure why. It could be a culmination of:
Goodell
Brady
Commercials
Concussions

lars10 · Oct 4, 2016

I haven't had as much time this year, but I'm also getting tired of the announcers saying how well the NFL is doing with protecting their athletes when there seems to be very little difference from years past... other than how often the NFL congratulates itself through its announcers.

Also the farce of having TB sit for something that didn't happen.

jmm57 · Oct 4, 2016

My NFL watching is wayyyyyyyy down. I think the main reason for me is officiating/rules. There is nothing I hate more than seeing a competitive game turn on a nothing/minimal long DPI penalty or a joke of a roughing the passer call, and the last few years those occurrences seem way up (no data). The pass friendly rules also have lead to such a pass heavy league that I just don't enjoy it as much, I like more balance. Basically I just don't enjoy the product that much anymore.

MuzzyField · Oct 4, 2016

Sports viewing is down and it's not just for football.

How much is really attributable to viewer flow to the political coverage of the election on the news channels?

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2016/10/03/Research-and-Ratings/Ratings.aspx

Bergs · Oct 4, 2016

The officiating is a disaster, I can no longer ignore concussions, the broadcasts suck, and fuck Roger Goodell (really, fuck the owners). This is the least amount of football I've watched in 20 years, and the first time in 15 I'm not in a fantasy league.

Ralphwiggum · Oct 4, 2016

Not sure what reduced participation in the game threads indicates, if anything, but at least for me the game threads are unreadable. I used to participate regularly, then found that the only thing I was doing in there was responding to people who are ready to proclaim the end of the Patriots as we know them every time they give up a play.

They are game threads and people are entitled to their emotional reactions so I stay out. But I found that they were not adding to my enjoyment of the game as they once did. It's been a steady decline for me, but this year but for a post or two I've been totally out.

NFL's Declining Viewership: One Slice at a Time

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