Sandy Leon's very own thread

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
His current line is so skewed by BABIP love that it's hard to evaluate. But his success has certainly been more than luck, as a quick look at his LD% and Hard% will confirm: he's been making a lot of high-quality contact. His xBABIP according to FG's formula is .322, and plugging that number into the rest of his line gives a slash of .283/.345/.556--which may not be a solid basis for projecting anything, but at least should provide a more or less valid answer to the question "how good has he really been this year?".

His career slash line is now .266/.330/.397. That's a thoroughly presentable line for an average-or-better defensive C, and it represents about half again as much data from before 2016 as from 2016. So if the truth lies halfway between the guy he was and the guy he's been this year, that's a very desirable location for the truth to occupy.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
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Jul 10, 2002
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Springfield, VA
So has Leon officially turned back into a pumpkin? His batting line over the past 30 games is .201/.279/.250

Obviously his early success was unsustainable, but that's a bit of a hard landing.
 

threecy

Cosbologist
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Sep 1, 2006
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Tamworth, NH
So has Leon officially turned back into a pumpkin? His batting line over the past 30 games is .201/.279/.250

Obviously his early success was unsustainable, but that's a bit of a hard landing.
I wouldn't jump to any conclusions until next season. He's still relatively young and this is his first quasi-full MLB season. We saw how a full season wore down Xander, and he's not even a catcher.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
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Jul 10, 2002
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In that case, shouldn't they be giving him some more rest this week? Sunday was the first non-Pomeranz off-day in about a month. Surely the Sox could be giving Vazquez or the H's a little more work this week. And with Pom off to the bullpen (at best), I have no idea who'd be the backup catcher in October. Seems like now's the time to find out.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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So has Leon officially turned back into a pumpkin? His batting line over the past 30 games is .201/.279/.250

Obviously his early success was unsustainable, but that's a bit of a hard landing.
He's been terrible. He ain't passing the eye test, the simple numbers test, and then there's the batted ball profile.

First (per fangraphs) -- a .300 BABIP in September (his lowest of any month by 60 points). Pretty fucking good for a guy who isn't cracking .600 on his OPS for the month. Then, there's the fact that he's hitting the ball hard a dismal 19.6% of the time (where he was sitting in the mid 30's the rest of the year, peaking at 37% in August). When JBJ had his bad August, he was still hitting the ball hard 30% of the time. Even A-Rod maintained a Hard% of 29% this year.

Remember that the zenith is soon-to-be-old friend David Ortiz, a scorching 46% for the year, and the nadir is old friend Jose Iglesias at a flaccid 18%.

Anyways, telling us a bit of what we already know: the decline has indeed been precipitous, and it doesn't look all that flukey. The only good news, really, is that at his worst, Leon is still hitting the ball harder than Iglesias has for his entire year. And, for that matter, at his worst, he's better than he was last year, where his hard% was 14% (!).

Far be it from me to conclude much from this -- I've stopped myself from looking at whether or not hes being pitched differently cause I ain't got time for that shit right now. I am still encouraged by the 200-some-odd superhuman PAs Leon put together, and I think it's perfectly normal for a guy who's made a major transformation in his batted ball profile and hitting style to turn back to pumpkintude at least for a while. Whether he makes another adjustment will be up to him. It'd be nice if it happened in October.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
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He's basically gone from Nintendo, best of all time in relatively small sample size numbers to all-star caliber. Still an OPS+ of 120.
It'd be nice to get some sort of handle on his true offensive value, but at worst he has been masterful in his game calling, and fantastic defensively.
It's still tough to justify trying one of the noodle bats behind him because of all the reps he's had with this great pitching run, though I don't think it's being advocated anywhere.

From the eye test he hasn't made adjustments since the book has been out on him and they started shifting him, but he's still decent at working the count and putting up competitive at bats albeit ending with weak contact.

I'll chalk it up to fatigue and hope he shows something next spring training. I think he's still our guy next year even if he's something like a .300/.350/.650 since the position is so weak.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
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Oct 19, 2008
12,408
He needs to adjust to the adjustments that other teams have made. The interfering comparison would be JBJ's struggles late last year after his torrid August, who then came back as a great hitter again this season.

But, until that readjustment happens, he's a guy that needs to be pinch hit for late in tight games. Given the reluctance to go down to one catcher, that might suggest a need to use the 5th bench spot to carry a third catcher in the postseason. Of course, only Young against leftues is even an attractive option from our bench right now.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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I'm guessing he goes back to the Sandy of old and it was just a hot few months. See Travis Shaw. They are who we thought they were.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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I dont know if its Farrell wishcasting / Ausmus Theory, but in his public comments, he really gushes about Leon's catching. And while its impossible to disaggregate the various factors involved, the pitching staff's shit together-getting roughly coincided with him becoming the clear #1.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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I'm not claiming to be an expert on such things but one has to imagine that if Leon's 2015 is his "true talent level" it would be damn near impossible to put up the two month hot steak we witnessed.
I'd guess his minor league slash numbers are closer to his true talent level than 2014 and 2015. .235/.325/.330. Maybe a little more power and more average. But over his last 115 PA he is slashing .206/.274/.245 with 9bb/32k. His 2014/2015 numbers: 198 PA, .174/.234/.208 with 13bb and 48k.