Hire Farrell? (12/5: 2018 Option Exercised)

uk_sox_fan

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FiveThirtyEight just put up an interesting article about the best and worst bullpen managers since 2000 and how valuable it is. Their measure is how well the manager does at using his best relievers for the highest leverage situations, which of course isn't everything. Still, it's an interesting read. Their conclusion is that bullpen management can swing a single win in either direction over a season. The best bullpen managers by their measure gain a win above average, and the worst lose a win below average.

I think it's mostly solid analysis at first pass. I think the biggest thing it doesn't account for is how tired vs. healthy/effective a guy is on a certain day and the effect on whether the best relievers continue to be available all year and the following years. Torre didn't lose any credit for Proctoring Proctor, for example.

Oh, and they say Farrell and Francona are both in the middle of the pack. Not top 10 or bottom 10. Gibbons is bad, Girardi is good according to them. They don't seem to acknowledge Maddon's genius...
Rob Arthur (the author) seems to use inconsistent criteria for choosing whom to include in the analysis. He offers a correction saying he inadvertently listed Dale Sveum but shouldn't have because he had 'fewer than five MLB seasons' since 2000, but then goes ahead and includes Bobby V (who had 4), Bob Geren (4 full plus a 63 game partial), Buddy Bell (4 full, 2 partials) and Jerry Narron (2 full and 3 partial). I can understand the impulse to show how bad BV was but it means we miss out on seeing how Francona, Farrell, Showalter, Maddon, Sciosia, Gardenhire, Bobby Cox, Ned Yost, Pinella, Mattingly and the Manuel brothers stack up to list some of the more interesting ones that weren't in the top or bottom 10.
 

czar

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Drellich: Hey Farrell-bashers, it's time to give the manager some credit

It has been written in this space before how relatively small the impact of a manager’s in-game moves really are, particularly in comparison to how much people talk about them.

But, if you were someone who disagreed — if you were someone who believed that in the bad times, a lot of blame fell to Farrell because managers’ choices are just that important — don’t sit there now and pretend these Sox aren’t winning.

Don’t bury your head in the sand and look the other way at the bullpen’s success. Don’t pretend you haven’t noticed Clay Buchholz’ turnaround, or Price’s turnaround or the bullpen’s best ERA in the majors this month. Farrell’s a former pitching coach, right?

You can’t have it both ways. The manager can’t be burning down Fenway Park in the bad times, and then a forgotten-about-nothing in the good times.

There are two sides to that coin.
 

uncannymanny

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I think this board has challenged those last 2 sentences pretty well. Bad = credit to manager. Good = credit to players.
 

rembrat

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I've been saying this forever but Farrell learned (and I'm sure he has his own ideas too) to manage under Tito and we're seeing Tito like moves now that stretch run is coming to a close. Farrell's hook is quick when it has to be and he gives rope to guys who have earned it. Now that his bullpen isn't a tirefire he's going to the matchups early and often. And he is in full on kill mode - from pinch hitting David Ortiz in the 6th inning of a game they were leading to going to Kimbrel in a 5-1 game once a hitter reached base. They're even talking about hitting Benny 6th!
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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While Farrell has proven himself to be a very good post season manager, he did have a brain fart in the WS when workman came up to bat...
 

SpaceMan37

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I think this board has challenged those last 2 sentences pretty well. Bad = credit to manager. Good = credit to players.
Hmm, it's either Farrell or the players who are doing much better this year than the last two years.

Both sides of this debate are pretty ridiculous. Managers marginally affect won-loss record, when the team is both good and bad. Though really bad managers will screw things up worse.

In my opinion of course.
 

uk_sox_fan

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And Tito put Pedro in against the MFYs in the ALCS and almost let them back into the game.
Sure he did - that move went and doubled the Yankee win expectancy!

When Pedro came in with the Sox up 8-1 to start the 7th Yankee WinX was 1%. When he left after closing out the inning at 8-3 it was a horrific 2%! And the crowd was chanting Who's Your Daddy and everything - it was just terrible.
 

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Sure he did - that move went and doubled the Yankee win expectancy!

When Pedro came in with the Sox up 8-1 to start the 7th Yankee WinX was 1%. When he left after closing out the inning at 8-3 it was a horrific 2%! And the crowd was chanting Who's Your Daddy and everything - it was just terrible.
If that's your definition, genius, then what did batting Workman do to the win expectancy?
They all do puzzling shit sometimes, even in playoff mode.
 
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AB in DC

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It's nice to see some signs of Playoff Farrell showing up lately. Wouldn't be the first person wearing a Red Sox uniform to seemingly flip a switch in September/October.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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When Pedro came in with the Sox up 8-1 to start the 7th Yankee WinX was 1%. When he left after closing out the inning at 8-3 it was a horrific 2%! And the crowd was chanting Who's Your Daddy and everything - it was just terrible.
Yeah, but it FELT like 50%!:eek:

Farrell has stopped bunting and the hit & run is almost non-existent (making hitters swing at non-strikes is a bad idea). I think baseball ops really pounded in to stop giving away outs and just let the talent play. Farrell is playing matchups now and doing a nice job. I actually think he has learned and improved his strategy as the season has progressed.
 

rembrat

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Farrell hasn't really ever played the bunt at a high clip as a Red Sox so I'm not sure what you mean he stopped unless you mean the players stopped trying to bunt on their own then alright.
 

Byrdbrain

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joe dokes

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Farrell hasn't really ever played the bunt at a high clip as a Red Sox so I'm not sure what you mean he stopped unless you mean the players stopped trying to bunt on their own then alright.
Sox at or near the bottom in AL attempts in all of Farrell's years.
 

uncannymanny

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And pitcher's pinch baserunning...If Wright had pitched last month like he was pitching and playoff Farrell had shown up in August the AL pennant race would be over and we would be relaxing with the Cubs.
Yeah, his 5+ second half ERA wouldve really let us run away with the division.
 

Ed Hillel

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Meant to post this a few minutes ago but why on god's green earth did he send Porcello out to start the 7th
Farrell would probably be lying if he said the whole 7-inning streak thing wasn't on his mind. I agree it was a poor decision, but at least he got him out quickly.

The bigger issue, I thought, was letting Leon hit in the 7th with the bases loaded. That has to be Benintendi, it's a no-brainer.
 

Al Zarilla

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I've been on the side of find somebody better if DD can, but tonight Farrell impressed me. His "one inning doesn't detract from a great season" speech when the players didn't know what to do in the locker room, and whatever he said to Kimbrel when he came to get him (I think it was a bit of an ass kicking) were just what was needed at the time. I think I might be won over, or at least I'll be looking for positive stuff from him going forward.
 

joe dokes

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I've been on the side of find somebody better if DD can, but tonight Farrell impressed me. His "one inning doesn't detract from a great season" speech when the players didn't know what to do in the locker room, and whatever he said to Kimbrel when he came to get him (I think it was a bit of an ass kicking) were just what was needed at the time. I think I might be won over, or at least I'll be looking for positive stuff from him going forward.

I think that just goes to the question of the relative value of that kind of stuff (that we can often neither define nor identify and see only occasionally) vs. the in-game stuff (where we see every game and decision and think we have the expertise to make informed judgments all the time). And beyond that is the most important question you hint at: "somebody better." "Better" at what? And how do we know who is "better" when the Sox play a team no more than 18 times a year, and there aren't many of us who watch a really large sample of other teams' games. Of course, just because there aren't stats on it doesn't mean that that there aren't better managers, but judging that stuff from the outside seems like a fool's errand.
 

Byrdbrain

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Fangraphs had an interesting piece up regarding picking manager of the year. The writer tried to use advanced statistics to measure the key strategic decisions, here is what he was trying to measure:
"As far as I, noted idiot, can figure, it’s these variables that define a manager:

  • When he uses his best relievers.
  • How rigid his approach to the bullpen is.
  • Where he puts his best hitters in the lineup.
  • How often he bunts with non-pitchers."
He follows with some interesting statistics with my favorite being BMAR or bullpen management above random.
This is his conclusion:
"In sum, we have some arguments for the managers who will be on the short list for American League Manager of the Year. John Farrell, John Gibbons, and Buck Showalter do well across the board, while Jeff Banister and Terry Francona have their strengths and weaknesses. Picking between them will be difficult. Almost impossible, even."

He considers and then dismisses using pythag, which some here seem to think is a good measure of a manager, due to all the other external influences. That makes sense to me but I also understand that Farrell has always been(at least a little) below his pythag so maybe there is some value.
I know I certainly question moves that Farrell makes but I also know when he is up against Buck or Girardi I question at least as many moves that they do. At this point I'm kind of rooting for Farrell to win it just to read the posts here and listen to talk radio go on about it.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/
 

soxhop411

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Its Bowden, so take it FWIW but...

Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell battled the hot seat for most of the season before the Red Sox pulled away and won the AL East. Boston's performance down the stretch has likely saved his job, for the time being.

Rumor CentralESPN's Jim Bowden reports that Farrell will start next season as the Red Sox's manager even if they lose their AL Division Series to the Cleveland Indians. However, Bowden believes that he would start 2017 on the hot seat.

Farrell appeared to have been close to losing his job this year, but led the Red Sox to the playoffs after two consecutive last-place finishes
If the Red Sox do decide to part ways with Farrell, bench coach Torey Lovullo could be the most likely option to replace him.
http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/29592/mlb-rumor-central-john-farrells-job-likely-safe-for-now
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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At this point the only manager available that I'd rather see than Farrell is Lovullo. Bud Black, Dave Roberts, Tito and Madden aren't moving. I'd love to see Tek move to a bench coach position under Lovullo. That's about it...
I'm not crazy about Farrell in either direction. I don't think he's the best manager and the only thing I can really judge a manager on is actual wins vs expected wins and he comes down consistently on the wrong side of that. That said, both Girardi and Showalter I think could get the team closer to expected wins, but I don't trust them during crunch time as much as Farrell.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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At this point the only manager available that I'd rather see than Farrell is Lovullo. Bud Black, Dave Roberts, Tito and Madden aren't moving. I'd love to see Tek move to a bench coach position under Lovullo. That's about it...
I'm not crazy about Farrell in either direction. I don't think he's the best manager and the only thing I can really judge a manager on is actual wins vs expected wins and he comes down consistently on the wrong side of that. That said, both Girardi and Showalter I think could get the team closer to expected wins, but I don't trust them during crunch time as much as Farrell.
Do you mean Bruce Bochy? Because Bud Black isn't currently coaching anyone.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The total failure to show up in this postseason will undoubtedly be counted against Farrell by management when the reckoning is made. Maybe it's his fault and maybe it's not, but a manager cannot escape questioning when the team closes out the season with an incredibly weak-ass effort in the playoffs.
 

moondog80

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I suspect if they lose and Farrell got fired, it won't be that the sweep caused DD to fire him, but that it enabled him to. Even if he wanted to last year, the cancer deal prevented it.
 
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P'tucket rhymes with...

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The total failure to show up in this postseason will undoubtedly be counted against Farrell by management when the reckoning is made. Maybe it's his fault and maybe it's not, but a manager cannot escape questioning when the team closes out the season with an incredibly weak-ass effort in the playoffs.
It might be at your finger tips, although I'm having a hard time remember the last time a team reeled off eleven straight to shut three other teams out of a division race. I'm not a Farrell fan, but if you want to hold him responsible here, he gets credit for that.
 

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They followed that run up by losing HFA, losing 5 of 6 in the regular season and then 2 more in the playoffs. Unless a miracle happens tonight they'll close the season by losing 8 of 9. Credit Farrell for the 11 game streak, he has to take heat for 8 of 9.
 

Stitch01

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I suspect if they lose and Farrell got fired, it won't be that they sweep caused DD to fire him, but that it enabled him to. Even if he wanted to last year, the cancer deal prevented it.
This is probably right. If he's not DDs guy this gives them an out, but what he did this year was certainly not a fireable performance. I'd keep him but won't shed many tears if he's replaced by a random manager.
 

JayMags71

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At this point the only manager available that I'd rather see than Farrell is Lovullo. Bud Black, Dave Roberts, Tito and Madden aren't moving. I'd love to see Tek move to a bench coach position under Lovullo. That's about it...
I'm not crazy about Farrell in either direction. I don't think he's the best manager and the only thing I can really judge a manager on is actual wins vs expected wins and he comes down consistently on the wrong side of that. That said, both Girardi and Showalter I think could get the team closer to expected wins, but I don't trust them during crunch time as much as Farrell.
Are those really the the limits of Dombrowski's options?
 

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Plympton91

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I didn't see any head slap moments this postseason, but letting Crisp hit right handed against Pomeranz and removing Benintendi aren't thing I agree with.

I do give him credits t for recognizing the weapon he had been given in Joe Kelly and riding him, but maybe one batter too late tonight. :(.

But overall, hard to. E disappointed in this season. Sox were great, and there's still 3 teams alive who I'd love to see win it all.