How Good Are The Sox Now?

jtn46

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I'd prefer not to deal with a divisional opponent that early, particularly ones that have explosive offenses. That said, you beat who is put in front of you.
Their explosive offenses in September have both been below average and well below both the Indians and Rangers (all well below the Red Sox both in September and overall). I think we should prefer to have HFA against Texas (likely in an ALCS) above all. If we must play the Jays, better in the short series where we can throw Porcello at Fenway twice.
 

BaseballJones

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I'd prefer not to deal with a divisional opponent that early, particularly ones that have explosive offenses. That said, you beat who is put in front of you.
If Toronto and/or Baltimore are really that good (and don't get me wrong, I worry about them too), there's a good chance they'll beat Texas, and the Sox would have to play them anyway. So yes, I agree with those folks that think you may as well play them in a 5-game series, with HFA, and the ability to set up your rotation so that Porcello gets games 1 and 5 (if necessary) at home.

When you get to the playoffs, you are going to have to beat some good teams and get some luck along the way. No matter what.
 

tims4wins

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It has been mentioned several times in this thread that the Rangers early-mid season run differential was not representative of their team quality due to the moves they made at the deadline... but since August 1 they are 30-20 with a run differential of only +2. They are looking more and more like the smoke and mirrors 2014 Orioles IMO.
 

grimshaw

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Assuming a clinch some time next series, ideally by Tuesday or Wednesday, I'd just as soon rest people the last series or so than worry about trying to get the 1 seed. The extra home game is always nice, but the kids in particular could really use a battery recharge, even with a few days off after the season. The Jays will have to kill themselves either way to knock out home field in the wild card.

Give the lineups and starters 5 innings and then Noe Ramirez and Junichi Tazawa, them to death and call it good. All of these divisional games in a row are just serious grinds. I'd just as soon have the easier Cleveland match up regardless of where it starts.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Extrapolating from the same dataset of 538's ELO's for all MLB clubs through history: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/complete-history-of-mlb/#BOS, it would appear that this edition of the Sox are entering some rarified territory.

Boston's current ELO rating is 1573, the highest its been since winning the '13 WS (1586). If they maintain this level through the week, they would finish with the highest end-of-regular-season ELO since 1949 (tied with the 2008 and 1950 seasons and 1 pt ahead of 2004). They are also within shouting distance of their regular season peak value since 1950 of 1582 (in 2008) and would have a chance in the playoffs to set a new all-time high (1596 following the 1912 WS victory over the NY Giants).

Each of the past 3 WS wins has increased ELO from the end of the reg season by 21, 23 and 21 pts, reaching peaks of 1593, 1594 and 1586 in '04, '07 and '13 respectively. Unreachable would be the record set in 2013 for the largest gain in ELO over the course of the season: 102 pts. This year's season began at 1514.
 

uk_sox_fan

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For those of you almost as geeky as I am for numbers here are the stats for the last 20 years:

Code:
Year   Start   Low   High   End RS   PlOff rslt   YearEnd   PlOff pk
1997   1518   1496   1527    1504       n/a        1504       n/a
1998   1504   1501   1554    1539       ALDS       1536      1545
1999   1526   1515   1550   1549        ALCS       1552      1562
2000   1536   1519   1563   1521        n/a        1521       n/a
2001   1516   1481   1544   1493        n/a        1493       n/a
2002   1497   1495   1551   1540        n/a        1540       n/a
2003   1528   1526   1562   1552        ALCS       1554      1558
2004   1538   1532   1577   1572        WS-W       1593      1593
2005   1564   1545   1571   1558        ALDS       1546      1558
2006   1532   1503   1560   1506        n/a        1506       n/a
2007   1506   1502   1564   1561        WS-W       1594      1594
2008   1564   1556   1582   1573        ALCS       1567      1581
2009   1546   1536   1574   1562        ALDS       1553      1553
2010   1537   1524   1563   1543        n/a        1543       n/a
2011   1530   1510   1576   1542        n/a        1542       n/a
2012   1530   1473   1541   1473        n/a        1473       n/a     
2013   1484   1484   1570   1567        WS-W       1586      1586
2014   1559   1488   1561   1496        n/a        1496       n/a
2015   1499   1475   1523   1518        n/a        1518       n/a
2016   1514   1513   1573   1573
As well as for some other notable seasons:
Code:
Year   Start   Low   High   End RS   PlOff rslt   YearEnd  PlOff pk
1912   1513   1513   1595    1592       WS-W       1588      1596
1946   1487   1487   1576    1560       WS-L       1555      1563
1950   1560   1548   1587    1573       n/a        1573      n/a
1965   1477   1443   1487    1448       n/a        1448      n/a
1967   1486   1484   1543    1538       WS-L       1537      1542
1975   1512   1503   1546    1537       WS-L       1551      1554
1978   1540   1535   1581    1550       n/a        1550      n/a
1986   1519   1516   1556    1537       WS-L       1544      1554
1994   1493   1468   1521    1468       n/a        1468      n/a
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Just pointing to Sox rankings in hitting in the American League actually does them a bit of a disservice. They're not just leading the league, they're destroying it.

OPS+ as a team is 112. Next closest is Detroit at 107. They're almost double the amount better than the next best team is better than average.

They have 193 more total bases than the Orioles, the 2nd best team. The Orioles do NOT have 193 more total bases than the 12th best team, the Royals.

They have 110 more runs than Cleveland, the 2nd best team. The Indians do NOT have 110 more runs than the 14th best team, the Yankees.

They have a team OBP of .350 (which is pretty staggering), which is .020 more than the Tigers, the 2nd best team. The Tigers do NOT have a .020 lead over the 13th best team, the Royals.

They're not just the best. They are remarkably the best.

And it's pretty amazing they've done those things while having 41 fewer homers than the leader and sitting sixth overall.
 

BaseballJones

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Since that three game losing streak to KC (twice) and Tampa (once), the Sox have:

- Gone 21-7 (.750)
- Gone 13-3 (.813) on the road
- Gone 8-4 (.667) at home
- Scored 169 runs (6.0 per game)
- Allowed 93 runs (3.3 per game)
- Gained 8 games in the standings
 

tims4wins

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Coming out of the All Star Break, the Sox were 49-38, and had a 3 game set @ NYY to start the 2nd half, followed by a 9 game homestand: 2 vs. the white-hot Giants; 4 vs. the Twins; and 3 vs. Detroit. We all thought that stretch would be key. The Sox took 2 out of 3 vs. the MFY, then swept the 2 games vs. SF, and took the first game vs. Minnesota for a 5-1 start out of the break, and a 3-0 start to the homestand. But then they lost 2 of the final 3 to Minnesota and got swept by Detroit to limp to a 5-5 finish on the homestand.

At that point they faced a remaining schedule of 41 road games vs. 22 home games. They went out to LAA and lost the first game of the series in heartbreaking fashion on Hanley's throwing error. They bounced back and won 2 of 3 games to split the series, then also split a 4 game series in Seattle before finishing the trip losing 2 of 3 to the Dodgers. A 5-6 trip - not horrible, but certainly not inspiring - left them with an 11-12 record post-ASB.

They returned home for a 3 game set vs. the MFY, and lost 2 of 3, dropping them to 12-14 post-ASB and 61-52 overall. They were 3 games back of Toronto at this point and I don't think anyone felt very good about their WC chances, let alone their division chances.

Quite the turnaround from then on.
 

TFisNEXT

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Coming out of the All Star Break, the Sox were 49-38, and had a 3 game set @ NYY to start the 2nd half, followed by a 9 game homestand: 2 vs. the white-hot Giants; 4 vs. the Twins; and 3 vs. Detroit. We all thought that stretch would be key. The Sox took 2 out of 3 vs. the MFY, then swept the 2 games vs. SF, and took the first game vs. Minnesota for a 5-1 start out of the break, and a 3-0 start to the homestand. But then they lost 2 of the final 3 to Minnesota and got swept by Detroit to limp to a 5-5 finish on the homestand.

At that point they faced a remaining schedule of 41 road games vs. 22 home games. They went out to LAA and lost the first game of the series in heartbreaking fashion on Hanley's throwing error. They bounced back and won 2 of 3 games to split the series, then also split a 4 game series in Seattle before finishing the trip losing 2 of 3 to the Dodgers. A 5-6 trip - not horrible, but certainly not inspiring - left them with an 11-12 record post-ASB.

They returned home for a 3 game set vs. the MFY, and lost 2 of 3, dropping them to 12-14 post-ASB and 61-52 overall. They were 3 games back of Toronto at this point and I don't think anyone felt very good about their WC chances, let alone their division chances.

Quite the turnaround from then on.


31-12 record since blowing those 2 games to MFY at home. If I recall, they won the first game where Kimbrel almost blew it and Farrell actually brought in Matt Barnes to finish the game.

Here's something remarkable:

Out of those 12 losses since that series, only 4 of them have been by more than 1 run.
 

tims4wins

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31-12 record since blowing those 2 games to MFY at home. If I recall, they won the first game where Kimbrel almost blew it and Farrell actually brought in Matt Barnes to finish the game.

Here's something remarkable:

Out of those 12 losses since that series, only 4 of them have been by more than 1 run.
Yeah for me there were probably two really low points this summer. One was blowing that homestand out of the break then going to LAA and losing the way they did. I had little hope at that point.

Then, after they seemingly pulled it together and won 10 out of 12 from August 12-23, they had that brutal 11 inning loss in Tampa where they blew the lead in the 8th, and then lost 2-1 the following night, blowing a Pomz gem, and then they followed this up by losing 2 of 3 to a hot KC team, then blew the 2nd game in TB (3-0 lead in the 6th), and a few days later had those brutal 1-0 and 2-1 losses to Oakland and San Diego, respectively. That 5-7 stretch was brutal due to the way they were losing games. 5 losses by a single run, with zero corresponding one run wins.

16-3 since.
 

uk_sox_fan

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They returned home for a 3 game set vs. the MFY, and lost 2 of 3, dropping them to 12-14 post-ASB and 61-52 overall. They were 3 games back of Toronto at this point and I don't think anyone felt very good about their WC chances, let alone their division chances.
Add to that a sleepless night thinking we may have seen Papi's career end there and then when he fouled that Betances cutter off his shin at the end of the Wednesday game of the MFY series.
 

Al Zarilla

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Has anybody else heard the "OMG OMG, they're peaking too early" argument? One of the talking heads on MLBN today even said it's like if you hit .500 in spring training, you're bound to start out 0 for 12 when the real bell rings. Maybe it was just a you have to have a devil's advocate side in every discussion thing, as most are high on the Red Sox chances in the AL.
 

tims4wins

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Has anybody else heard the "OMG OMG, they're peaking too early" argument? One of the talking heads on MLBN today even said it's like if you hit .500 in spring training, you're bound to start out 0 for 12 when the real bell rings. Maybe it was just a you have to have a devil's advocate side in every discussion thing, as most are high on the Red Sox chances in the AL.
Haven't heard it but it's the worst argument. The Rockies had that absurd streak in 2007 and still made it to the WS. Plus I am sure the Sox will drop a couple games this week.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Has anybody else heard the "OMG OMG, they're peaking too early" argument? One of the talking heads on MLBN today even said it's like if you hit .500 in spring training, you're bound to start out 0 for 12 when the real bell rings. Maybe it was just a you have to have a devil's advocate side in every discussion thing, as most are high on the Red Sox chances in the AL.
I mean, post season starts in a 9 days. I'm not sure how much later you would want them to get hot. Timing seems perfect to me.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I'd like them to win these final two series so Papi can leave the Toilet with a proper sendoff and so that the Sox take the season series from the Jays (now tied 8-8) and for the first time beat all 4 AL East opponents head-to-head in their respective season series.

4-2 would be just fine. Price, Buch, Porcello and Price getting the wins would be just perfect with Porcello throwing a shutout to bring his ERA < 3.00.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Has anybody else heard the "OMG OMG, they're peaking too early" argument? One of the talking heads on MLBN today even said it's like if you hit .500 in spring training, you're bound to start out 0 for 12 when the real bell rings. Maybe it was just a you have to have a devil's advocate side in every discussion thing, as most are high on the Red Sox chances in the AL.
I think the best answer to that is to point out that multiple key players have actually been hitting below their season average level over the past few weeks. Remember, we had a string of consecutive games recently in which we scored 5 runs -- which is below average for us. Here are some of the guys who've been slumping, or at least in a dip:

JBJ, .786 since Sept. 11
Pedroia, .512 since Sept. 13
Bogaerts, .640 since August 1
Mookie, .789 since August 29
Leon, .232 since Sept. 12
Shaw, .371 since Sept. 9
Hanley, .629 since Sept. 18
Young, .434 since Sept. 12

We're actually in a bit of a teamwide slump, yet we're winning anyway, largely thanks to the pitching*. About the only hitters who've been really hot the past couple of weeks are Ortiz, Holt, and Benintendi.

So there's plenty of room for guys to catch fire for the postseason. My eye is on Xander, JBJ, Shaw, and Young.

*2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 4.42 K/BB, and .604 OPS allowed. That's the whole staff for September. I knew it had been good, but I didn't realize it had been that good.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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I think the best answer to that is to point out that multiple key players have actually been hitting below their season average level over the past few weeks. Remember, we had a string of consecutive games recently in which we scored 5 runs -- which is below average for us. Here are some of the guys who've been slumping, or at least in a dip:

JBJ, .786 since Sept. 11
Pedroia, .512 since Sept. 13
Bogaerts, .640 since August 1
Mookie, .789 since August 29
Leon, .232 since Sept. 12
Shaw, .371 since Sept. 9
Hanley, .629 since Sept. 18
Young, .434 since Sept. 12

We're actually in a bit of a teamwide slump, yet we're winning anyway, largely thanks to the pitching*. About the only hitters who've been really hot the past couple of weeks are Ortiz, Holt, and Benintendi.

So there's plenty of room for guys to catch fire for the postseason. My eye is on Xander, JBJ, Shaw, and Young.

*2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 4.42 K/BB, and .604 OPS allowed. That's the whole staff for September. I knew it had been good, but I didn't realize it had been that good.

Minor point, but since the start of the winning streak, Mookie is hitting .463/.551/.537. Definitely on the upswing.
 

dcmissle

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So there is no jinxing with the loss tonight. I have been waiting days to post this.

In my lifetime, I recall no other Red Sox team that have been such assassins down the stretch. Just yesterday, it seems, I was posting about relative underperformance measured by run differential. At the time, there were three teams at the table and a huge jackpot to be claimed.

The Red Sox just grabbed it. No scoreboard watching to see the magic number shrink: they just won. Finish it right; win tomorrow.

I don"t give a rat"s ass whether they finish first in the AL and who they face first in the post. Just win and clinch that way. Screw the scoreboards.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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How poorly Price looked last night was what upset me more than the loss. He has a relatively unfair reputation as being a big game choker...... and that was a pretty big game last night. A chance to lock the division down and end another team's playoffs hopes in one game and he ended up pitching a turd.
He'll have me more worried than I feel a pitcher of his pedigree and abilities should when he takes the mound during the playoffs....
 

Tyrone Biggums

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How poorly Price looked last night was what upset me more than the loss. He has a relatively unfair reputation as being a big game choker...... and that was a pretty big game last night. A chance to lock the division down and end another team's playoffs hopes in one game and he ended up pitching a turd.
He'll have me more worried than I feel a pitcher of his pedigree and abilities should when he takes the mound during the playoffs....
What worries me more is the fact the Sox will probably have to face Texas at some point. Price has pitched really poor against 3 teams this year overall the MFY Minnesota and Texas. I personally feel like if Price pitches in a semi positive environment he will be fine. But he's probably not going to give you a Lester like performance.
 

uk_sox_fan

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How poorly Price looked last night was what upset me more than the loss. He has a relatively unfair reputation as being a big game choker...... and that was a pretty big game last night. A chance to lock the division down and end another team's playoffs hopes in one game and he ended up pitching a turd.
He'll have me more worried than I feel a pitcher of his pedigree and abilities should when he takes the mound during the playoffs....
I'm sorry, but how was last night a 'big game'? Per fangraphs the Sox' odds of winning the division were 99.9% on Monday and dropped all the way to 99.7% with the loss / Toronto win. Had he pitched a perfect game with 26 K's they'd have been 0.3% higher than they are now. Granted, the odds of the #1 and #2 seeds would be higher as well but you get the idea. Odds of making the playoffs, of course, were unaffected as they have already clinched at least the #1 WC spot.

In his last start before this one the Sox' division winning odds went from 98.0% to 98.7%. Two starts ago the probability was 69.6% before and 80.9% after. Odds of making the playoffs went from 97.2% to 98.9% or to put it another way, the odds of a soul-sapping complete collapse were better than halved (2.8% -> 1.1%)

Even as far back as his 1st start after the ASB the games were an order of magnitude more meaningful. Price's loss on 17 July dropped the division winning odds from 54.8% to 50.6% and making the playoffs from 87.9% to 84.3%. Obviously, each of these figures depends also on whether the other teams win or lose but no matter how you slice it, last night's game was as low leverage as Tazawa's 9th inning appearance in Price's 12-2 smack down of the O's 2 weeks ago!
 

AB in DC

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Putting aside the "big game" stuff, it was a genuinely terrible performance, the first time since his rookie year that he had more HRs allowed (3) than Ks (2). That has to be a concern. And he doesn't seem like one of those crafty veterans who can find a way to get outs on a day when his stuff isn't working. When things go bad, they go bad.
 

Max Venerable

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Certainly seems like a good game to dip into the deep September pen... Price had nothing. Was Farrell trying to see if he could stretch to get him his 18th W after they tied it up?

I remain a fan of the quick hook.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Putting aside the "big game" stuff, it was a genuinely terrible performance, the first time since his rookie year that he had more HRs allowed (3) than Ks (2). That has to be a concern. And he doesn't seem like one of those crafty veterans who can find a way to get outs on a day when his stuff isn't working. When things go bad, they go bad.
And when he's going good he pitches 10 masterpieces in a row. It was a stinker but even still he was competitive through 6 innings. I'm not too worried about giving up a couple of HR's in an almost meaningless game.
 

rodderick

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Putting aside the "big game" stuff, it was a genuinely terrible performance, the first time since his rookie year that he had more HRs allowed (3) than Ks (2). That has to be a concern. And he doesn't seem like one of those crafty veterans who can find a way to get outs on a day when his stuff isn't working. When things go bad, they go bad.
The Yankees just seem to have his number, for some reason. Even some of their stiffs like Romine see him well.
 

JohntheBaptist

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Certainly seems like a good game to dip into the deep September pen... Price had nothing. Was Farrell trying to see if he could stretch to get him his 18th W after they tied it up?

I remain a fan of the quick hook.
Eh--it almost would have been better had he given up the 4 runs in the first; you'd know he didn't have it and could have yanked him. It was an insidious sort of bad in that he'd seem to settle, the Sox would score... and then he'd give it back. Twice. And his pitch count never got close to out of hand, so it definitely seemed like it *could* have been a mediocre start they could use him to get outs with and pound out a win.

He probably shouldn't have come out for the 7th but considering the game wasn't nearly as *big* as the reaction it created (I do get it, its the Yankees), I'm fine with Farrell seeing what he's got in that spot. A HR to Tyler Austin in that big a spot did not speak well, I agree.

Neither Boston nor Baltimore are getting swept in these series, I don't think they have much to worry about.
 

uncannymanny

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So we want to go to the bullpen in the 2nd right before the playoffs? Seems like a fine idea! Not like any of those guys are old or coming off injury.

This game was gravy. If they won awesome, if they didn't whatever. John put his foot on the gas to get them into this spot during the winning streak and now he's easing off over the last week. As he should be. I don't understand what people are expecting. He's not going to tax the bullpen in the last week when they are in the catbird's seat. The division is effectively over (sure I guess they could lose all 6 games in a row for the first time this season). They are needed for much more important games.

On leaving Price in:
“You go with a right-hander they’re going to go with [Mark] Teixeira and [Brian] McCann with that right field porch,” Farrell explained. “Wanted to keep the right-handers in the ballgame, mislocated over the plate.”
 

JimD

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Was this a big game? No. Are the Sox worse off this morning after it? Not really.

Should we have expected a better game from our $217 million ace against a depleted Yankees roster? Absolutely.
 

drbretto

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I'm sorry, but how was last night a 'big game'? Per fangraphs the Sox' odds of winning the division were 99.9% on Monday and dropped all the way to 99.7% with the loss / Toronto win.
By losing last night's game, Red Sox now 3 times more likely to lose division!
 

uk_sox_fan

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Should we have expected a better game from our $217 million ace against a depleted Yankees roster? Absolutely.
Price's resurgence after the ASB has been one of the primary reasons the Sox are where they are. He's a fly ball pitcher pitching in all ballpark that yields more HRs than any other - stuff happens. Would you rather we signed Greinke?
 

dcmissle

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Eh--it almost would have been better had he given up the 4 runs in the first; you'd know he didn't have it and could have yanked him. It was an insidious sort of bad in that he'd seem to settle, the Sox would score... and then he'd give it back. Twice. And his pitch count never got close to out of hand, so it definitely seemed like it *could* have been a mediocre start they could use him to get outs with and pound out a win.

He probably shouldn't have come out for the 7th but considering the game wasn't nearly as *big* as the reaction it created (I do get it, its the Yankees), I'm fine with Farrell seeing what he's got in that spot. A HR to Tyler Austin in that big a spot did not speak well, I agree.

Neither Boston nor Baltimore are getting swept in these series, I don't think they have much to worry about.
I think Baltimore getting swept in Toronto is quite plausible despite what it has riding on that series. It would be nice to get one of these games in NY. Fuck drama.
 

dcmissle

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Good thing John was right. Kimbrel is a significant problem.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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I look at it as Kimbrel getting a bad one out if his system. The moaning about him on the game thread was pitiful. They already clinched. I don't give a rip how. Doesn't matter. Only hurts the home field possibility. AL East Champions. No BS wildcard play in game.
 

JimD

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How good are the Sox now? Good enough to blow a game and still win the American League East title with four games to go, that's how good. Tonight's disappointing loss and muted celebration do not change the fact that this September has been a remarkable month for our team and one hell of a fun ride.

Huge relief - no sweating a win-or-go-home WC game or having Toronto potentially coming to Fenway with the division still in play. Line up the pitching for the Division Series and give guys some rest. Play the last four games to win but don't go crazy in doing so.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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How good are the Sox now? Good enough to blow a game and still win the American League East title with four games to go, that's how good. Tonight's disappointing loss and muted celebration do not change the fact that this September has been a remarkable month for our team and one hell of a fun ride.

Huge relief - no sweating a win-or-go-home WC game or having Toronto potentially coming to Fenway with the division still in play. Line up the pitching for the Division Series and give guys some rest. Play the last four games to win but don't go crazy in doing so.
I hopped in my car right after the Sea Biscuit HR and the Rays game is on the radio. The 2 douchebags are saying how we backed into the division win like the Sox always do. I guess winning 11 straight down the stretch to open up a huge lead is somehow backing in. I guess we could be the last place Rays who play in a Craptacular ballpark. The Sox are the AL East champs. That's how good they are. The 9th inning sucked but it doesn't mean they backed into anything.
 

Al Zarilla

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58,867
San Andreas Fault
I hopped in my car right after the Sea Biscuit HR and the Rays game is on the radio. The 2 douchebags are saying how we backed into the division win like the Sox always do. I guess winning 11 straight down the stretch to open up a huge lead is somehow backing in. I guess we could be the last place Rays who play in a Craptacular ballpark. The Sox are the AL East champs. That's how good they are. The 9th inning sucked but it doesn't mean they backed into anything.
Even Harold Reynolds on MLBN today said nobody backs into anything because it's a 162 game season. That's good, Harold, for once. I watched the entire celebration on NESN. How long was it, certainly over an hour, and there was as much jumping around and champagne dousing as any of the World Series celebrations. I said it in another thread, say it again, Koji was right there with Ortiz as the wildest of the celebrators.