'15 - 16' Coaching Carousel

Kliq

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I always liked Les, but his problem was that he could never beat Alabama consistently. From a pure talent standpoint, LSU is the only program over the last decade that can rival Alabama, and that is mainly because of the great local talent they harvest every spring. There are more LSU players in the NFL than from any other college and include stars on both sides of the ball (OBJ, Landry, Jeremy Hill, Andrew Whitworth, Honey Badger, Patrick Peterson, Eric Reid, etc.) but despite all of that they couldn't beat Alabama enough and this their championship opportunities were going to be limited.

His (and Cameron's) biggest weakness is their inability to develop consistent quarterback play. LSU has been loaded at pretty much every position except the most important one, which is mind boggling when you consider the depth of talent they recruit from. Bama has never had a real stud QB, but they have gotten competent play from a variety of different players (McElroy, McCaron, Sims) to avoid sabotaging their seasons. During Miles' tenure they have had two good QBs, JaMarcus Russell (won the sugar bowl, embarrassed Notre Dame) and Matt Flynn (won the National Championship) and the rest has been mostly shit, even Mettenberger turned out to be someone that has been obviously boosted by playing with great playmakers. Without solid QB play they have wasted their talent at all their other positions, and this year is no different. They have maybe the best RB since Adrian Peterson and they are wasting his career because they can't get a QB to make sure ten guys aren't in the box on every play.
 

riboflav

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I get so frustrated every time I see this thread updated because...

Hey, $100 to whichever poster is the first to link to the official firing of Brian Kelly. Thank you!
 
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Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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The Miles firing is hideous. The state of Louisiana is looking through the sofa cushions to fund basic programs and they fire a football coach who has won a national championship because of a weird call at the end of a game. So stupid. At the very least give it until the end of the year.
 

Infield Infidel

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I agree accept with the money part; they likely have a handful of boosters who have been pushing for the firing since last October who agreed to pony up the buyout.

But this is a terrible way to fire a coach who won you a national title. Who was the last coach who won a title at a school to later get fired midseason? Even Gene Chizik coached to the end of his last season

Next year is the 10th anniversary of the title team, I wouldn't begrudge Miles for not showing up for the reunion.
 
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Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I agree accept with the money part; they likely have a handful of boosters who have been pushing for the firing since last October who agreed to pony up the buyout.
Maybe, but $15M is a lot of money and I would be a little surprised if boosters are going to sack up every dime. The whole thing is just stupid. When boosters get convinced that they should win every game things go sideways fast. LSU won't be relevant for 5 years.
 

Kliq

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Maybe, but $15M is a lot of money and I would be a little surprised if boosters are going to sack up every dime. The whole thing is just stupid. When boosters get convinced that they should win every game things go sideways fast. LSU won't be relevant for 5 years.
LSU will likely be in the playoff in the next five years. Way too much talent.
 

jsinger121

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LSU will likely be in the playoff in the next five years. Way too much talent.
Way too much talent. Great facilities. rabid fanbase and in the SEC. This is an elite job and they will get a top coach for it.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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LSU will likely be in the playoff in the next five years. Way too much talent.
I don't agree. Now, in fairness to your point, "relevant" may be relative. To me, a team like LSU needs to be in the top 15 3 out of 5 years and in the playoffs 1 out of every five - at least - to be "relevant", because that is the expectation when you spend that kind of cash.

The Tigers just fired one of the top coaches in the game and they play in a conference where you can't stumble if you want to end the year relevant. This strikes me as being very similar to the Phil Fulmer and the Ty WIllingham firings, where alums have insane expectations and struggle to adjust to the new reality. I stand by my position, they won't be relevant over the next 5 years.
 

Vinho Tinto

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The Miles firing is hideous. The state of Louisiana is looking through the sofa cushions to fund basic programs and they fire a football coach who has won a national championship because of a weird call at the end of a game. So stupid. At the very least give it until the end of the year.
I went to a Saints game in 2010. I didn't meet one Tiger fan that supported Miles the entire weekend. I've always looked at him as having a crazy short leash since then. They thought seriously about canning him last season. I think being viewed as an outsider and being the guy who replaced Saban (Who ended up returning to coach a rival and win at a historic pace) left him in a position of win like Saban or be viewed as a failure.

He's 62, so if he wants to get another job, he shouldn't spend too much time accepting that easy TV money.
 

Kliq

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I don't agree. Now, in fairness to your point, "relevant" may be relative. To me, a team like LSU needs to be in the top 15 3 out of 5 years and in the playoffs 1 out of every five - at least - to be "relevant", because that is the expectation when you spend that kind of cash.

The Tigers just fired one of the top coaches in the game and they play in a conference where you can't stumble if you want to end the year relevant. This strikes me as being very similar to the Phil Fulmer and the Ty WIllingham firings, where alums have insane expectations and struggle to adjust to the new reality. I stand by my position, they won't be relevant over the next 5 years.
I don't think you realize the talent and the resources that LSU has; the expectations are to match or beat Alabama and they have everything that Alabama has except Saban; at this point it was clear that Les wasn't the answer so maybe someone else is. I don't find this similar to the Willingham firing at all because the programs are vastly different.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I don't think you realize the talent and the resources that LSU has; the expectations are to match or beat Alabama and they have everything that Alabama has except Saban; at this point it was clear that Les wasn't the answer so maybe someone else is. I don't find this similar to the Willingham firing at all because the programs are vastly different.
Uhhhh........I do. They don't have as much talent as they think they do, by a wide margin. Every major college program gets top end recruits, and their alums think that they have 3 top 5 recruiting classes in the hopper. But pretty much every year the top recruiting classes don't do all that well while Alabama, tOSU, a few new upstarts etc. all roll on. LSU doesn't have a QB on campus who has ++ potential. They have some decent defensive prospects, but they also have a bunch of kids who are head cases. To say that they have everything that Alabama has except for Saban is laughable. They also don't have the coaching infrastructure that exists at Alabama. This is - much like the Willingham example - a case where a bunch of alums are convinced that their college should be in the national championship hunt every year when in truth, the results have been very good, but mixed in with some bad luck.
 

Kliq

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Uhhhh........I do. They don't have as much talent as they think they do, by a wide margin. Every major college program gets top end recruits, and their alums think that they have 3 top 5 recruiting classes in the hopper. But pretty much every year the top recruiting classes don't do all that well while Alabama, tOSU, a few new upstarts etc. all roll on. LSU doesn't have a QB on campus who has ++ potential. They have some decent defensive prospects, but they also have a bunch of kids who are head cases. To say that they have everything that Alabama has except for Saban is laughable. They also don't have the coaching infrastructure that exists at Alabama. This is - much like the Willingham example - a case where a bunch of alums are convinced that their college should be in the national championship hunt every year when in truth, the results have been very good, but mixed in with some bad luck.
Number one recruiting class in 2016, Number eight in 2015, number three in 2014, they have the talent to compete and recruiting for LSU is easier than at literally any other major college and that pipeline isn't shutting down any time soon. The reason the Willingham comparison isn't apt is because Willingham never got talent that highly ranked at Notre Dame because the recruiting was never that good (because fundamentally, the recruiting process for LSU and Notre Dame are so different), and thus he never had a fair shot at competing with the top ranked teams--not to mention Willingham got three years and Miles has had more than a decade. When you have the top talent, when you have the big money, when you have top facilities and play in the toughest conference, why shouldn't you be able to compete with anyone? An obvious answer is coaching and the failure for Les to win another national championship is what doomed him.
 

Infield Infidel

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Yeah, LSU is a bit different from ND and Tennessee. ND has to recruit nationally, and Tennessee recruits the entire Southeast because they don't have a lot of blue chips in-state.

Louisiana is a top state in per capita 4/5 star recruits, and the highly insular high school coaching apparatus gears all in-state recruits to LSU. I think the closest comp is Georgia, but they have to ward off Auburn and FSU just across the border, and to a lesser extent GT in state. The talent and lack of competition in-state makes this a supremely attractive job.
 

Ale Xander

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Totally agree with Kliq. LSU has the state of the Louisiana, which is a top-10 state for talent, maybe even top 6, and it doesn't have to share them, like Austin, USC/UCLA/Cal, or Florida/FSU have to.

Part of the reason as to why Ohio State is great almost every year. Similar situation in Georgia (to LSU).
 

Clears Cleaver

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When a dumpster fire like Miles is considered a great coach then I can tell you his competition is embarrassingly bad. He may be a great recruiter (given caveats of being in SEC and only LA school) but he's never developed a QB, his game/clock management around end of games and halves is ridiculous at best and his best strategy has been to have a superior punter to help win field position and then let his dline win games for him.

I see a guy like Miles and think Chuck Pagano would coach circles around him.
 

Drocca

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I don't agree. Now, in fairness to your point, "relevant" may be relative. To me, a team like LSU needs to be in the top 15 3 out of 5 years and in the playoffs 1 out of every five - at least - to be "relevant", because that is the expectation when you spend that kind of cash.

The Tigers just fired one of the top coaches in the game and they play in a conference where you can't stumble if you want to end the year relevant. This strikes me as being very similar to the Phil Fulmer and the Ty WIllingham firings, where alums have insane expectations and struggle to adjust to the new reality. I stand by my position, they won't be relevant over the next 5 years.
I agree completely with Yammer. I'll admit to some bias as I really enjoy Les Miles the Coach, but it's not just that. Georgia has always gotten great recruits but I really believe that they, in the next few years, will be the ones up there with Alabama in the SEC in recruiting and then, eventually once it catches up, on the field. LSU is going to start losing talent barring a truly inspired coaching hire and, given their decision on Miles and the accompanying wishy washiness the last two years with him, I don't think they have it in them.

I think we forgot how quickly programs can disappear into the ether of 6-7 win forgettable seasons, even in the SEC. Auburn is a great recent example. How long has it taken Florida to be relevant again?
 

Drocca

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I don't buy the in-state argument you guys are all making as the end-all/be-all, but maybe I'm wrong. You seem to discount Les Miles part in all of these top classes, as if the players have no out of state options? Les Miles, and before him Nick Saban, are manning that wall. Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Charlie Strong, Gary Patterson, dweeb from Clemson, hell maybe even the Chief Marketing Officer at Michigan, assuming the Colts thrilling come from behind victory against the mighty Chargers is a harbinger of things to come, will be scaling that wall very, very soon.

Larry Fedora is my guess for who replaces him long term, as an aside.
 

Kliq

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I wouldn't be that harsh with him, the quarterback thing has been his biggest bugaboo; but he did turn out Russell and Matt Flynn--plus he may have gotten screwed when Ryan Perrilloux ended up being such a fucking dope. The guy went 113-34 as a head coach, won one national championship and made it to another one while playing in the consistently toughest conference every year. He also has managed to produce more NFL talent than any other coach.

I don't buy the in-state argument you guys are all making as the end-all/be-all, but maybe I'm wrong. You seem to discount Les Miles part in all of these top classes, as if the players have no out of state options? Les Miles, and before him Nick Saban, are manning that wall. Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Charlie Strong, Gary Patterson, dweeb from Clemson, hell maybe even the Chief Marketing Officer at Michigan, assuming the Colts thrilling come from behind victory against the mighty Chargers is a harbinger of things to come, will be scaling that wall very, very soon.

Larry Fedora is my guess for who replaces him long term, as an aside.
Louisiana produces more talent than arguably any other state, and certainly more talent per capita than anywhere else. Look at LSU's roster and compare it to any other major college program, not even Alabama can rival how many of the players are locally produced:

http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=27812&SPID=2164

Not only is LSU unique in that it is the only major college program in the state, but for years it has also capitalized on being the closest major college program to East Texas and the Houston area, although the rise of Baylor in recent years has drained that flow a bit. Like you said Georgia is their closest rival, but do we really want to compare Georgia's success over the last dozen years to LSU's? While players from Louisiana certainly leave and go to Alabama, Ole Miss and MSU, but not that many notable recruits. When you grow up in an area that worships LSU football and absolutely despises Saban and Alabama, it isn't that hard to recruit the top local talent. Top recruits want to do two things: Play at a big time, winning program and increase their chances of making it to the NFL--with or without Miles LSU has as strong of a pitch as any other program in the country in those two areas, and throw in the caveat that the players can play close to home and for the team that they have probably idolized throughout their childhood and it is pretty much a slam dunk with local recruits.
 

Drocca

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I'm not comparing Georgia's success over the last dozen years to LSU's. I'm talking about LSU now, sans Les Miles and Georgia now, with Kirby Smart.

Very good post, but needed to correct that. I still think LSU slinks into the late twenties to UR for the next five years.
 

Infield Infidel

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It would be a dereliction of duty for coaches at LSU, OSU, Bama etc, to not get top 10 classes most years. That's the minimum. Miles did that, and had some really insane seasons (a title with 2 losses?), and did well for a while but didn't or couldn't adjust. Despite Saban's criticism of spread offenses, he's running that now.

Whoever said Ohio State is a comp up thread hit the nail on the head. The Miles tenure is like a luckier version of the Cooper years at OSU, monster NFL talent every year, 10-11 wins most years, but usually losing to the big rival.
 

LeftyTG

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I wouldn't be that harsh with him, the quarterback thing has been his biggest bugaboo; but he did turn out Russell and Matt Flynn--plus he may have gotten screwed when Ryan Perrilloux ended up being such a fucking dope. The guy went 113-34 as a head coach, won one national championship and made it to another one while playing in the consistently toughest conference every year. He also has managed to produce more NFL talent than any other coach.



Louisiana produces more talent than arguably any other state, and certainly more talent per capita than anywhere else. Look at LSU's roster and compare it to any other major college program, not even Alabama can rival how many of the players are locally produced:

http://www.lsusports.net/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=27812&SPID=2164

Not only is LSU unique in that it is the only major college program in the state, but for years it has also capitalized on being the closest major college program to East Texas and the Houston area, although the rise of Baylor in recent years has drained that flow a bit. Like you said Georgia is their closest rival, but do we really want to compare Georgia's success over the last dozen years to LSU's? While players from Louisiana certainly leave and go to Alabama, Ole Miss and MSU, but not that many notable recruits. When you grow up in an area that worships LSU football and absolutely despises Saban and Alabama, it isn't that hard to recruit the top local talent. Top recruits want to do two things: Play at a big time, winning program and increase their chances of making it to the NFL--with or without Miles LSU has as strong of a pitch as any other program in the country in those two areas, and throw in the caveat that the players can play close to home and for the team that they have probably idolized throughout their childhood and it is pretty much a slam dunk with local recruits.
I agree with the bulk of your post and agree that LSU has had success in East Texas, but it isn't correct to say LSU is the closest major college program to (parts) of East Texas and certainly Houston. College Station is closer to most of East Texas, and Austin, Waco, and College Station are all closer to Houston than Baton Rouge.

I think Miles is the biggest example of doing less with more this side of Mack Brown. An offensive coach with proven success will be able to get rapid improvement out of LSU. If they land Herman I think LSU is in the playoff within 5 years.

I think Smart is Muschamp dedux and will sink Georgia, but I suppose that is a different discussion.
 

grsharky7

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If WVU doesn't lose to a 28 point underdog on the last day of the season and Missouri doesn't lose to Oklahoma, Les Miles doesn't even play for that national title in 2007.
 

Drocca

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Is that really an exercise with any merit or is it just a reflection of your avatar being sad? You could say that about literally every season in every sport and, for that matter, everything in life.
 

mauf

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LSU was a pretty pedestrian program before Saban and Miles, and the state's population has shrunk in the past 15 years, as many of those displaced by Katrina never returned. I don't buy that any competent coach will automatically bring in top-10 recruiting classes most seasons.

This year's squad is underachieving, so I see the upside in this move, but there's also a ton of downside.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Is that really an exercise with any merit or is it just a reflection of your avatar being sad? You could say that about literally every season in every sport and, for that matter, everything in life.
The choking to a 4-7 version of your most hated rival with the NCG on the line was pretty special.
 

Infield Infidel

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LSU was a pretty pedestrian program before Saban and Miles, and the state's population has shrunk in the past 15 years, as many of those displaced by Katrina never returned. I don't buy that any competent coach will automatically bring in top-10 recruiting classes most seasons.

This year's squad is underachieving, so I see the upside in this move, but there's also a ton of downside.
It's grown more slowly but hasn't gone down.

Louisiana population
2000 4,468,976 5.9%
2010 4,533,372 1.4%
Est. 2015 4,670,724 3.0%

It's all about the high birthrate. The natural population increase rate has more than made up for exits. (Whoever is hired should have a boom after 2020). Also, more than half of the 250k who went from Louisiana to the Houston area returned. I read that yesterday but can't remember where. If anything Katrina helped LSU recruit Houston.

But population doesn't really tell the whole story, it's football-playing population. Louisiana is 6th in blue chips despite being ~25th in population. http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/6/28/12040586/rankings-state-stars-florida-texas-california Louisiana is on par with Ohio despite having 40% the population. From 2011-15 LSU avg 7th nationally in recruiting per 247.

Edit LSU pre Saban/Miles had some decent years (one NT way back) but they had a lot of bad coaches competing against the likes of Bear Bryant and Steve Spurrier, and a bit like Florida/FSU pre Bowden/Spurrier, the rest of the country raided the state for recruits. DiNardo seemed to turn it around some but Saban turned it into an avalanche.
 
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grsharky7

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Is that really an exercise with any merit or is it just a reflection of your avatar being sad? You could say that about literally every season in every sport and, for that matter, everything in life.
I understand there is luck in any championship season. I was just pointing out that for LSU to even play in that game took some incredible luck. On the last day of the season WVU lost to a massive underdog and Missouri lost to Oklahoma. That opened the door for a 2 loss LSU to play for the national title.
 

Kliq

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I understand there is luck in any championship season. I was just pointing out that for LSU to even play in that game took some incredible luck. On the last day of the season WVU lost to a massive underdog and Missouri lost to Oklahoma. That opened the door for a 2 loss LSU to play for the national title.
They also lost both games that season in triple overtime, so there was some luck on that end as well.
 

Senator Donut

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I'm still waiting on a 30 for 30 on the 2007 college football season. I've never seen anything like it, starting off with the App State upset, followed by every program achieving a #2 ranking at some point in the season, including powerhouses like Kansas, Boston College, Cal, and USF, and culminating with a bevy of upsets of one-loss teams during the final two weeks of the season.
 

Infield Infidel

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Apparently LSU fired Miles so soon because they didn't want him to build momentum by going on any kind of winning streak which would make firing him later more difficult. That's kind of messed up but I'm also impressed by that level of ruthlessness
 

dcmissle

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I am impressed by Miles responding to the firing maturely, responsibly, wisely and positively. ( Unlike, for example, Tom effin' Coughlin, whose barely concealed smoldering reflected an apparent belief that this is a lifetime gig.) This approach should help Miles.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Is Mark Dantonio on the hot seat? Losing to Indiana is usually a fireable offense, but he's obviously done a good job for a lesser program. That said, he's in his 60s, and is clearly now on the downside of his career. Is Michigan Light ready to move to basketball only?
 

WayBackVazquez

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I don't know what sub-pop is, but I do love me a good Spike Lee joint.

Obviously kidding about D'antonio getting fired, but I do wonder if he's close to retirement. Trying to recruit against Harbaugh and Meyer is a young man's game.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I don't know what sub-pop is, but I do love me a good Spike Lee joint.

Obviously kidding about D'antonio getting fired, but I do wonder if he's close to retirement. Trying to recruit against Harbaugh and Meyer is a young man's game.
Sub-Pop was the label out of Seattle that drove the grunge movement.

Come on now.