The Bullpen Thread

Sam Ray Not

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Our sorry bullpen in September (18 games, not counting the Porcello CG)

2.0 0 0 0 0 4
2.0 1 0 0 0 1
2.2 2 0 0 1 2
0.0 0 0 0 0 0
5.1 4 0 0 0 4
3.0 0 0 0 2 5
3.0 2 2 2 1 5
6.2 6 1 0 3 8
1.0 1 0 0 0 0
7.0 5 1 1 4 7
1.0 0 0 0 1 0
2.0 2 0 0 1 3
2.0 3 1 0 0 3
2.0 1 0 0 0 3
2.1 1 0 0 0 3
2.1 0 0 0 0 3
0.0 1 1 0 1 0
2.0 1 0 0 0 1
2.0 2 0 0 0 4

48.1 IP / 32 H / 3 ER (2 by Abad, 1 by Noe Ramirez) / 14 BB / 56 K

 

HomeRunBaker

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Koji's presence places everyone in the role best suited to their skillset. He allows Farrell to manage the 6th and 7th inning to matchups whereas opposing managers, much like Farrell when Koji was out, are not able to burn through their pen in the 6th and 7th playing to matchups as these same pitchers may be needed later in the game. What a huge huge advantage.
 

BaseballJones

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Some recent runs by the bullpen guys...

Kimbrel last 20 games: 18.0 ip, 0.50 era, .083 avg, 0.89 whip, 16.0 k/9
Koji last 12 games: 11.1 ip, 0.00 era, .135 avg, 0.44 whip, 11.9 k/9
Ziegler last 15 games: 13.1 ip, 0.00 era, .208 avg, 1.13 whip, 12.2 k/9
Barnes last 8 games: 5.1 ip, 0.00 era, .300 avg, 1.50 whip, 10.1 k/9
Ross last 17 games: 14.2 ip, 1.23 era, .222 avg, 1.23 whip, 8.6 k/9
Tazawa last 6 games: 6.1 ip, 0.00 era, .190 avg, 0.79 whip, 8.5 k/9
Hembree last 14 games: 13.1 ip, 3.38 era, .259 avg, 0.98 whip, 4.7 k/9
Scott last 4 games: 5.0 ip, 0.00 era, .235 avg, 1.00 whip, 9.0 k/9

This has been exceptional work by the bullpen guys.
 

Auger34

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Would think the pitching staff would be..
1. Price
2. Porcello
3. ERod
4. Buck

'Pen:
Kimbrel
Uehara
Ziegler
Ross
Barnes
Pomeranz
Tazawa
Scott (seems like Farrell likes him more than Abad but I think this is the spot most likely to change)
 

nothumb

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Would think the pitching staff would be..
1. Price
2. Porcello
3. ERod
4. Buck

'Pen:
Kimbrel
Uehara
Ziegler
Ross
Barnes
Pomeranz
Tazawa
Scott (seems like Farrell likes him more than Abad but I think this is the spot most likely to change)
Yeah, this seems about right. I was bullish on Kelly for the playoff pen, but he isn't getting much run and is pretty redundant if Barnes is in.

I think the last guys on your depth chart are Pom and Scott. Kelly could also be in that mix depending on opponent. Hembree should not be anywhere close. If they go with 7 relievers, Pom may get the nod due to being more stretched out. Really depends how he looks between now and then.

I am really unhappy, by the way, with the idea of Hanigan as our playoff backup, though I'm not sure there's anything better we can do. The guy is just not competitive at the plate, and with Sandy crashing back to earth it's harder to hide it.
 

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I am really unhappy, by the way, with the idea of Hanigan as our playoff backup, though I'm not sure there's anything better we can do. The guy is just not competitive at the plate, and with Sandy crashing back to earth it's harder to hide it.
We're going to live or die with Sandy, though. I can't see the backup catcher getting many at bats at all, unless in a lopsided game.
 

KillerBs

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Would think the pitching staff would be..
1. Price
2. Porcello
3. ERod
4. Buck

'Pen:
Kimbrel
Uehara
Ziegler
Ross
Barnes
Pomeranz
Tazawa
Scott (seems like Farrell likes him more than Abad but I think this is the spot most likely to change)
I trust the Sox staff on these issues, but from here I would dissent with the above.

I would definitely need to see more out of Pomeranz the rest of the way before taking him over Kelly. Is Pomeranz hurt or has he just pitched like he is over his last 2 starts? He needs to show somehting the rest of way IMO. Currently, based on recent performance, I have more faith in Kelly to come in the 3rd or 4th inning and pitch 2-3 solid innings than I do in Pomeranz, despite this year's numbers.

If they do take Pomeranz, I don't think I want a third lefty in Scott too. Ie 2LHPs only, the second of which is likely a LOOGY.

Rather than the 3rd LHP, I would much prefer to see Hembree or Tazawa in this Curtis Leskanic role.
 

Plympton91

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I think you have to consider whether Wright is on the team when deciding about Hannigan. Is it my imagination or did Wright's rough patch coincide with Hannigan going on he DL?
 

Plympton91

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I trust the Sox staff on these issues, but from here I would dissent with the above.

I would definitely need to see more out of Pomeranz the rest of the way before taking him over Kelly. Is Pomeranz hurt or has he just pitched like he is over his last 2 starts? He needs to show somehting the rest of way IMO. Currently, based on recent performance, I have more faith in Kelly to come in the 3rd or 4th inning and pitch 2-3 solid innings than I do in Pomeranz, despite this year's numbers.

If they do take Pomeranz, I don't think I want a third lefty in Scott too. Ie 2LHPs only, the second of which is likely a LOOGY.

Rather than the 3rd LHP, I would much prefer to see Hembree or Tazawa in this Curtis Leskanic role.
We should know by now that the way a pitcher looks as a starter is not well predictive of how he'll do as a reliever. Drew Pomeranz was one of the best MRs in the game in 2014-15. I see no reason he shouldn't be the #1 lefty out of the pen in the playoffs.
 

nothumb

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I think you have to consider whether Wright is on the team when deciding about Hannigan. Is it my imagination or did Wright's rough patch coincide with Hannigan going on he DL?
I think Wright's rough patch coincided with a bunch of 90+ degree days and rain. I actually recall Hanigan struggling mightily with the knuckleball, though that was also around the time HE went on the DL, so...
 

Saints Rest

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We should know by now that the way a pitcher looks as a starter is not well predictive of how he'll do as a reliever. Drew Pomeranz was one of the best MRs in the game in 2014-15. I see no reason he shouldn't be the #1 lefty out of the pen in the playoffs.
Shouldn't the Sox get Pom (or Buch, whoever is out of the top 4), a couple games out of the pen over these last few games to get into the rhythm of warming up quick and possibly coming in with men on base?
 

FinanceAdvice

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We should know by now that the way a pitcher looks as a starter is not well predictive of how he'll do as a reliever. Drew Pomeranz was one of the best MRs in the game in 2014-15. I see no reason he shouldn't be the #1 lefty out of the pen in the playoffs.
I think a good solid bullpen would consist of
Kimbrel, to close
Uehara, for set-up
Pomeranz, Ross, Ziegler, Scott, (I like the different eye level/arm slot he'd impose on different batters) last two are difficult for me but for now Id go with Barnes and Junichi only on lower WHIP compared o other options.
Total of 12 pitchers for postseason
 

Average Reds

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I believe that they can make roster changes between series, so if (for example) you burn your pen out in the ALDS, you can add Kelly or another arm for the ALCS. Or for the WS.
 

k-factory

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Assuming 12 man staff I'd say the locks are:

Porcello
Price
EdRo
Buchholz

Kimbrel
Koji
Ziegler
Scott (LOOGY)
Pomeranz (long man insurance)


That leaves 3 on the bubble

Kelly
Tazawa
Barnes
----------
Unless Wright gets a start before the end of the season it's real tough to give him a slot. Such an unknown right now.

And while Ross has had a decent stretch in the 2nd half I'm not sure what he can do that the guys above can't do better. Do we need a third lefty in the pen?
Rejuvenated Kelly looks great. Taz in a pinch can be dominant still after this prolonged rest period and he might have his splitter back. Barnes' control scares me but Farrell has increasingly greater trust in him and he's delivered.

Hembree and Abad even further down the depth chart.
 

Byrdbrain

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There is no chance Ross isn't on the postseason roster, he has been solid all year. He is different than the other lefties one of whom would be a pure loogy and one would be starter insurance. I think it is more likely Pom would be left off than Ross, though I think he is on.

I think the two on the bubble are likely Kelly and Taz.
 

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There is no chance Ross isn't on the postseason roster, he has been solid all year. He is different than the other lefties one of whom would be a pure loogy and one would be starter insurance. I think it is more likely Pom would be left off than Ross, though I think he is on.

I think the two on the bubble are likely Kelly and Taz.
Yeah, Ross is just a solid relief pitcher who happens to throw from the left side. He gets righties out too.
 

k-factory

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So if Ross is in, who is out from the Kelly/Barnes/Taz trio? Taz I assume given his limited usage which is unfortunate. And not seeing him yesterday is probably a good indicator of trust right now.

I don't see them dropping Pomeranz from the staff. If EdRo or Buch melts down in early innings that's the guy they'd go to.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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I don't want Joe Kelly anywhere near the playoff roster facing fastball hitters on the Rangers or Blue Jays or Orioles. He gives up too much hard contact which will lead to pain & ignominy in the playoffs.

We're basing everything off his small sample size of Sept, so let's look deeper at the Sept. #s. He's got a soft contact % of 4.8% / med 57.1% / hard 38.1%. (just looking at 3 guys really quickly - Robbie Ross' season contact: 22/44/33; Taz: 16/51/32 and Pom: 19/49/31)

I still don't trust Joe Kelly based on 8.2 IP September innings. I hope the Red Sox don't either.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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So if Ross is in, who is out from the Kelly/Barnes/Taz trio? Taz I assume given his limited usage which is unfortunate. And not seeing him yesterday is probably a good indicator of trust right now.

I don't see them dropping Pomeranz from the staff. If EdRo or Buch melts down in early innings that's the guy they'd go to.
If Taz looks good this final week, I think he's in and Kelly is out.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
We're basing everything off his small sample size of Sept, so let's look deeper at the Sept. #s. He's got a soft contact % of 4.8% / med 57.1% / hard 38.1%. (just looking at 3 guys really quickly - Robbie Ross' season contact: 22/44/33; Taz: 16/51/32 and Pom: 19/49/31)
The problem with using batted ball percentages for three weeks of a reliever's work is that the sample becomes really tiny. And it gets even tinier when the reliever in question is striking out over 30% of the hitters he faces.

Kelly has faced a total of 35 batters in September. 21 of them have put the ball in play, and 8 of those balls in play have been classified as Hard. That means 22.9% of the batters Kelly has faced have hit the ball hard. If just two of the 8 hard-hit balls Kelly has given up this month had been classed as Medium instead, that percentage goes down to 17.1%.

For comparison, Tanner Roark, who has the lowest Hard% in MLB among qualifying pitchers, has given up hard-hit BIP to 16.7% of the batters he has faced. Or for an example closer to home, Rick Porcello this season has given up hard contact to 22.5% of the batters he has faced--virtually identical to Kelly. Yet his Hard% is a respectable 30.4, almost 8 percentage points better than Kelly's September number.

The reason for this is that Kelly is striking out far more of the batters he is facing than Roark and Porcello are. So the denominator for the Hard% is smaller for Kelly, which is a good thing. What matters, after all, is how many of the batters you face hit the ball hard. You shouldn't be penalized because fewer of the batters you face are putting the ball into play at all.

As long as we're playing with tiny samples, here's another take: Kelly has faced 17 batters in September with runners on base. 7 of them have struck out. That's a 41% K rate. Only one of them got a base hit. That's a .067 batting average. Do I want that pitcher on my playoff roster? Why yes. Yes I do.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I don't want Joe Kelly anywhere near the playoff roster facing fastball hitters on the Rangers or Blue Jays or Orioles. He gives up too much hard contact which will lead to pain & ignominy in the playoffs.
So even if this were accepted as true (and I think Savin Hillbilly refutes it pretty effectively above), you'd still want Kelly available to face Cleveland's lineup which mashed offspeed pitching far more than fastballs. And unless the Sox do end up passing Texas for the top seed (better chance now but still only ~1/3 likely), Cleveland will be the ALDS opponent.
 

crystalline

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As long as we're playing with tiny samples, here's another take: Kelly has faced 17 batters in September with runners on base. 7 of them have struck out. That's a 41% K rate. Only one of them got a base hit. That's a .067 batting average. Do I want that pitcher on my playoff roster? Why yes. Yes I do.
Kelly's control stinks. He had a lot of runners on base because he put most of them there.
My eyes tell me that he can't hit the target on most nights, even with his fastball.

Given the small sample sizes we have, the most informative data on Kelly is going to be how often he throws the ball where the catcher wants it. And those data are not positive.

Kelly has great stuff, he just has no control at present. He's gotten a bunch of outs and I've seen a decent number of Ks where he blows high fastballs by hitters that end up 6-12" from the catcher's glove. Farrell is reluctant to use him with runners on because Kelly is Wild Thing right now. He may make the playoff roster but I hope we never need to see him in high leverage spots.
 

crystalline

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As long as we're playing with tiny samples, here's another take: Kelly has faced 17 batters in September with runners on base. 7 of them have struck out. That's a 41% K rate. Only one of them got a base hit. That's a .067 batting average.
I realize you are mostly joking around with this, but to put it in context:
He's faced 35 batters in Sept, and 9 have gotten on base. The 95% confidence interval for his OBP against is 0.125-0.433. The top of the 99% CI is 0.485. (Those numbers assume a completely random choice of starting/ending date, so one could build an estimator that is even higher).

For comparison, Ortiz is #5 in the majors with a 0.405 OBP.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Joe Kelly just made the postseason roster tonight. no question about it.
Since his call up, 11.1ip, 8h, 3bb, 15k, 44 batters faced. Not including todays game, he had a Swinging Strike Rate of 9% though. Guessing that changes as he struck out 3 guys swinging.
 

bosockboy

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I think Hembree/Barnes is the last spot up for grabs.

If they go with a 4 man bench, my guess is:
Kimbrel
Koji
Ziegler
Kelly
Barnes/Hembree
Ross
Scott
Pomeranz

With these on the outside:
Wright
Barnes/Hembree
Tazawa
Abad
 

mt8thsw9th

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Since his call up, 11.1ip, 8h, 3bb, 15k, 44 batters faced. Not including todays game, he had a Swinging Strike Rate of 9% though. Guessing that changes as he struck out 3 guys swinging.
What exactly is the argument vis-a-vis Kelly and Barnes? Even if Kelly's control "stinks", Barnes is no better than him in that category, and doesn't have Kelly's upside (nor flexibility in being able to go a couple innings if they need it).
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
What exactly is the argument vis-a-vis Kelly and Barnes? Even if Kelly's control "stinks", Barnes is no better than him in that category, and doesn't have Kelly's upside (nor flexibility in being able to go a couple innings if they need it).
I don't know if we can say Barnes doesn't have Kelly's upside. He certainly has the pedigree advantage, as a former #19 overall pick and consensus top-50 prospect. His major league record isn't that much worse than Kelly's and he's two years younger. They both throw wicked hard; their average 4-seamer velocity this year is exactly the same at 96.6.

They're actually quite similar pitchers in many ways. I like Kelly better than Barnes too, but I'd have a hard time coming up with a rational defense of that.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think Kelly is locked, Hembree got himself in the race today and it will be between him and Barnes.
So are you going with just 2 LHRP, or a 9-man bullpen, or is Tazawa off the roster? I'm assuming the following positions are locked:

Kimbrel (closer)
Uehara (RH 8th inning)
Ross (LH 7th-8th inning)
Ziegler (GB specialist/ROOGY)
Pomeranz (emergency long man)

which leaves the last three spots for some combination of Tazawa, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, and Scott. I think Scott has a huge advantage as a lefty (I probably shouldn't be ruling out Abad, but sometimes you have to give yourself something to hold onto). So we're probably talking about four righties for two slots. I'd pick Barnes and Kelly, but Tazawa may get one of the slots because of seniority, essentially (more diplomatic version: track record of MLB success). Hembree seems like the odd man out no matter how you slice it.

Am I misreading the tea leaves?
 

Byrdbrain

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I'm not convinced Pom will be on the roster. If a starter craps himself they could piece something together with Ross, Barnes and Kelly. You are likely losing that game anyway and I'm not sure keeping a guy on the roster whose only value comes in a game that you are likely losing is great roster management.

It will be interesting to see how they handle it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Um...huh. I meant recently. Yeah, that's the ticket.
I think people are still stuck on Joe Kelly, SP and that 11.1ip is a pretty small sample size. Although, his career to date in the bullpen is 67.2ip, 69h, 19bb/65k 6HR and a 2.66 era. .263/.322/.378. For reference, as a starter it is .266/.340/.401.
 

BaseballJones

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The fact that pretty much everyone in the bullpen not named Abad is pitching his ass off makes this a very interesting - and very good - problem to have.
 

Plympton91

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I'm not convinced Pom will be on the roster. If a starter craps himself they could piece something together with Ross, Barnes and Kelly. You are likely losing that game anyway and I'm not sure keeping a guy on the roster whose only value comes in a game that you are likely losing is great roster management.

It will be interesting to see how they handle it.
Why do you feel Pomeranz's tremendous work as a relief pitcher in 2014 and 2015 should be ignored?
 

AB in DC

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What I'm hoping to see is the Sox skipping Pomeranz's turn in the rotation (give it to Henry Owens or something) and put him in as a reliever in two of the last five games. Then we can get at least a look at how he transitions back to a relief role for October.
 

Byrdbrain

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I'd be surprised if the Sox put Pom in that role without them using him in it at all. I see AB just posed a scenario where they could give him a couple shots out of the BP before the season is out.
If they were still struggling to find reliable arms out there then I could see them giving that a shot but they've been so good for a month now I'd be surprised if they mess with it.
 
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jtn46

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I think I'd prefer Kelly over Pomeranz in the ALDS. With Ross, Scott, and Koji's typical reverse split I think they are covered against lefty bats. I also think it would be shrewd to keep Pomeranz stretched out in case there's a favorable matchup in the ALCS or WS (the Dodgers for example are the worst offense in baseball against LHP and specifically didn't do very much against Pomeranz in 2 starts, 14ip, 11k's, 5h, 3bb's, Baltimore is vulnerable against LHP as well but torched Pomeranz last week.)
 

keninten

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Maybe I missed something but don`t we only need 3 SP in the division series. Buchholz or Erod would be in the pen also right? Which would also bump Pomeranz off the roster I would think.
 

Byrdbrain

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The ALDS schedule is:
Thurs
Fri
Sun
Mon
Weds

To only need 3 starters you would need the game 1 starter to pitch on 3 days rest in game 4. The Sox might do that if it was an elimination game as the game 2 starter could pitch game 5 on normal rest but I doubt they would go a starter short and plan on doing it from the start.
 

jtn46

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Maybe I missed something but don`t we only need 3 SP in the division series. Buchholz or Erod would be in the pen also right? Which would also bump Pomeranz off the roster I would think.
They would need Porcello, if he is the Game 1 starter, to go on 3-days rest in Game 4, something he has never done as a starting pitcher (there is a day off between games 4 and 5 so if Price is the Game 2 starter he could pitch on regular rest). I doubt it's plan A for either guy, but if Game 4 is an elimination game it figures to be a consideration, which is pretty much how these postseason horse legends are born these days.
 

crystalline

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What exactly is the argument vis-a-vis Kelly and Barnes? Even if Kelly's control "stinks", Barnes is no better than him in that category, and doesn't have Kelly's upside (nor flexibility in being able to go a couple innings if they need it).
Yeah, don't get me wrong, Kelly has great stuff.

What did people think of Kelly's appearance tonight in terms of getting the ball where the catcher wanted it?
(I didn't see the game.)

BrooksBaseball appears down, but here's pitchFX from FanGraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=9761&position=P&season=2016&date=2016-09-23&dh=0

Seems pretty well in the zone except for one curve to RHH that's off the chart.
 

Plympton91

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Maybe I missed something but don`t we only need 3 SP in the division series. Buchholz or Erod would be in the pen also right? Which would also bump Pomeranz off the roster I would think.
At risk of becoming a broken record, why would they have Edro in the bullpen having never thrown an inning of relief, instead of putting the guy in relief who was actually a dominant relief pitcher in the American League last year?
 

k-factory

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The pen has to be strategically constructed for adverse situations. Thats why Pomeranz is an asset and not just a fungible arm. He can predictably get you at least 3 innings if needed, without requiring JF to shred the bullpen to piece together a broken game.
And Scott is the best LOOGY they have and in modern day baseball a critical function in the post-season (even against the Indians - turning around a Santana for example).

So again:

1. Porcello/ 2. Price / 3. EdRo / 4. Clay

5. Kimbrel / 6. Koji / 7. Ziegler / 8. Scott / 9. Pomeranz

10. Ross / 11. Kelly

In the recent past JF has talked about how Kelly needs a clean inning but last night he gave him a shot to prove him wrong with 1 out and runners on 1st and 3rd and he delivered a DP. And then he shuts down TB for 2 more innings. Thats a huge confidence booster for both parties and imo seals the deal.

Which leaves for the 12th spot:

Barnes/Taz/Hembree

Chances are none of those 3 are getting a critical spot to work through so is there a unique attribute any of these guys offers? I'm just not sure it matters. I don't think i would trust Barnes or Hembree's control in a post-season situation and Taz is getting no opps lately.
 

simplicio

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Taz isn't getting much playing time but he's been pretty solid when he has. Are they just trying to rest him for October?