2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma

Agree with the sentiment but think that Brady stands in a category apart with Bob Kraft. Brady had him with, "Mr. Kraft, this is the best decision you ever made, I promise you that ..." and then everything else that has followed.

This does not -- let me say it again, NOT -- mean what TB will play one down longer than BB wants him playing. Quite the opposite -- Kraft will yield on who should start at QB.

But I don't think the Patriots will dispatch TB to East Buttfuck because that's who will be offering the best deal. That's where I think Kraft steps in.

Whenever it ends, it will be a delicate dance -- unless Tom decides he wants to them up. If he doesn't while in a Pats uniform and the Pats want to move on, I can easily see Kraft granting him a release, with perhaps an understanding of certain teams he would not go to.

dcmissle said:

Whenever it ends, it will be a delicate dance -- unless Tom decides he wants to them up. If he doesn't while in a Pats uniform and the Pats want to move on, I can easily see Kraft granting him a release, with perhaps an understanding of certain teams he would not go to.

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If Kraft cares about which team he goes to, but nevertheless grants him a release with "an understanding of certain teams he would not go to", then Kraft will rightfully be pilloried when/if TB12 ends up in New York Jet green. It would be akin to Kraft thinking that Goodell would go easy on Brady in the penatly phase of DFG if Kraft dropped any intent to fight the fine/draft pick penalties on the team. Except much much worse, because in the latter, Kraft had no real remedy.

I realize we're getting way ahead of ourselves with the hypotheticals, but I see 4 scenarios how Brady leaves:

a.) He decides to call it a day after 2017 or 2018 while still a Patriot and still playing reasonably well. Avocado juice can only do so much when you have 300 pound guys trying to drive you to the turf every week.

b.) He is traded to a team of his choosing in 2018 or 2019 for a fairly small return.

c.) He is given his release after 2017 or after 2018. There will be no stipulations or side agreements or anything else. There's too much downside there, and no real upside for anyone involved.

d.) He plays out his contract, and then leaves as free agent or simply retires. And the Patriots welcome Jacoby as their new starting QB in 2020.

Nothing else makes any sense.

Pandemonium67 said:

Maybe more importantly, his game does not depend on having elite athleticism. He needs to be able to throw hard and accurately, of course, and to withstand the occasional pounding, but he doesn't need to run fast, jump high, or complete a 4-minute mile. His mental acumen is a big part of his game, and that isn't going anywhere in the next few years. There's just no way to predict when or even whether he's going to fall off a cliff, or just decline slowly. Not even BB's crystal ball can see that.

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I just can't agree with this - it's the same argument people were making for Manning a couple years ago - his declining arm strength doesn't matter because his game has always been about the mental side, and the accuracy, and the adjustments. And then his arm strength declined a little too much (because of injury) and defenses collapsed on him and all the adjustments and accuracy and mental stuff just didn't matter. (luckily he had a historically good defense)

Brady's ability to sense pressure, and react to it and move about the pocket is a combination of ridiculous peripheral vision, ridiculous reaction times, and some really impressive agility. These are all things that decline in middle age.

Brady's ability to cut teams apart across the middle is a result of him having a pretty strong arm, being able to make decisions ridiculously quickly, being able to track several objects moving in his peripheral vision at once, coupled with a fast release, and the ability to maintain almost perfect throwing form while not even looking at his target until after the motion has started.

Brady doesn't run all that fast, and looks kind of ridiculous when he does run - but that doesn't mean he's not a supremely gifted athlete, and that his skills aren't dependent on his physical condition. Any one of his gifts declines enough, and his game will fall apart like a house of cards.

The arm strength wanes a bit and he won't be able to make viable enough challenges to the outside, and we'll end up with late stage Chad Pennington. The peripheral vision goes a little and he won't be able to look off safeties and corners as long, and those balls to Gronk up the seam will get real dangerous. Brady's legs start to go and he'll just fall apart - ball velocity goes down, his ability to avoid the rush goes away, accuracy goes out the window, etc.

Hoodie Sleeves said:

Nobody is mentioning Jacoby because there's no real reason to think he's anything more than Ryan Mallet at this point - he's a 3rd round quarterback pick with a single preseason and very little time under center - nobody should be making any plans based on him because the vast majority of the probability spectrum is him being nowhere near as good as JG looks right now. The most likely result for him is he holds a clipboard for a couple years, doesn't get a 2nd contract from the Pats(and they draft another mid round QB), and then floats around the league for a couple years.

If Jimmy could be a top 10 starter, there's almost nothing worth giving that up for. Not a mid first rounder, not a year or two more of Brady. You simply do not let a good, young NFL quarterback walk. Even for a young probowl player at another position - there just aren't any positions nearly as important as QB.

If the Patriots trade JG - to me it's a sign that they don't think he's actually that good - It's Cassel Redux where the system and surrounding talent made him look better than he actually was - and if that's the case - how much of that is happening with Brady?

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Jacoby was a third round pick with Parcells approval. There is a nonzero chance that Jacoby in 2019 (his third year) is just as good as Jimmy is this year.
I get it. Jimmy G has looked great. But when he was drafted (as a 2nd rounder) no one thought (at the time) he would become a top 10 QB. I am not saying Jimmy is a top 10 QB yet, just using the terminology being used in the thread.
Listen if Brady goes Peyton Manning this year I am all for moving on with Jimmy. But if Brady wins the super bowl and puts up stats similar to last year, I don't see BB getting rid of Brady for Jimmy.
Last point, Jimmy may have more trade value (to better help the Pats roster) than Brady at this point in their respective careers.

BannedbyNYYFans.com said:

I called into F&M the other day...

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You could have stopped typing right there.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

You could have stopped typing right there.

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He can fence with those two a-holes like no other. Pitches a shutout. Legendary.

All this talk about trading Brady in 2018 is probably not going to happen.
Tom Brady very well may not be the QB for the New England Patriots in 2018, but a trade seems far fetched. I know Bill can be cold, but I don't believe he is cold enough to dump Tom somewhere like Cleveland or any other NFL backwater. It's much more likely that Tom would be released then it is that he is traded. It'd be hard to gripe about the Tom Brady trade vs. release opportunity cost.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:

All this talk about trading Brady in 2018 is probably not going to happen.
Tom Brady very well may not be the QB for the New England Patriots in 2018, but a trade seems far fetched. I know Bill can be cold, but I don't believe he is cold enough to dump Tom somewhere like Cleveland or any other NFL backwater. It's much more likely that Tom would be released then it is that he is traded. It'd be hard to gripe about the Tom Brady trade vs. release opportunity cost.

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Tom will retire before he's released. The team will frame it as a mutual decision as to not appear they are dumping him. He will never play for another NFL franchise because Robert Kraft will never let it happen. Brady will play for the Patriots as long as he's physically able to play the game of football.

RedOctober3829 said:

Tom will retire before he's released. The team will frame it as a mutual decision as to not appear they are dumping him. He will never play for another NFL franchise because Robert Kraft will never let it happen. Brady will play for the Patriots as long as he's physically able to play the game of football.

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No doubt. Brady's game/health will have to go pretty far south for all parties to declare it over and he will not go anywhere else but retirement. The only part of this equation that is in question is to sell high on JG (possibly too late with the injury?) or to hold and hope the cap numbers work.

Will there ever be a fullblown official QB Controversy(TM) with TB and JG? I think BB would defuse that.

RedOctober3829 said:

Tom will retire before he's released. The team will frame it as a mutual decision as to not appear they are dumping him. He will never play for another NFL franchise because Robert Kraft will never let it happen. Brady will play for the Patriots as long as he's physically able to play the game of football.

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Kraft won't stand in BB's way if he wants to trade Brady. No question. Will he? No clue.

Although remember that BB is getting up there in age. How long do you think he wants to continue coaching?

Kenny F'ing Powers said:

Oh great. So, a week and a half ago when I said you keep a guy if he shows he can be a top 10 QB, nobody wanted to agree with me. Now we got a bunch of people on the bandwagon.

You all get off my JGWagon.

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Beat you to it in the same thread.

MuppetAsteriskTalk said:

If Jimmy G looks this good every game, they would be crazy to trade him. Just hold him for this year and next and see if Brady slows down at all before making a decision.

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Pandemonium67 said:

"If he thinks Brady will be great for three years..."

And that's where it gets tricky. There has never been anyone like Brady -- a guy whose idea of indulgence is an avocado sugarless non-dairy milkshake, followed by staying up on Friday night to 10:30. He takes care of himself like no other QB.

Maybe more importantly, his game does not depend on having elite athleticism. He needs to be able to throw hard and accurately, of course, and to withstand the occasional pounding, but he doesn't need to run fast, jump high, or complete a 4-minute mile. His mental acumen is a big part of his game, and that isn't going anywhere in the next few years. There's just no way to predict when or even whether he's going to fall off a cliff, or just decline slowly. Not even BB's crystal ball can see that.

Accordingly, the shrewd approach is to be prepared by 1) having the best backup possible given the salary cap restraints, and 2) having a potentially good 3rd-string guy developing in the wings in case Brady plays long enough that the top backup leaves in free agency. Check and check.

Oh, and a third thing is having an offensive plan that minimizes the QB's exposure to hits. Other than the shaky O-line play, they've got this covered too.

TL;DR: BB is on it.

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Excellent post. You covered much of what I was going to say on the aging of Brady's skillset, including the warning about the offensive line.

One more thing to add - Brady relies less on his legs than almost any other elite quarterback. Montana relied on his legs as well as the short passing game. Manning lost his skills because of genetic spine problems that pushed his brother out of the game and decimated his arm strength. Brady has shown no signs of losing his arm strength so far. If that goes, he is toast. But Brady last year was throwing slants and outs MUCH harder than we have seen this year from JG (a reason I am slightly down on Jimmy).

Brady could drop off a cliff tomorrow. But due to his style of play, his unique pocket skillset, and the modern passing game, I don't think the other players listed are good comps.

axx said:

Kraft won't stand in BB's way if he wants to trade Brady. No question. Will he? No clue.

Although remember that BB is getting up there in age. How long do you think he wants to continue coaching?

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Don't know, but for legacy reasons I would not be surprised if he wants to sustain the dynasty for at least a couple of years beyond Brady.

axx said:

Kraft won't stand in BB's way if he wants to trade Brady. No question. Will he? No clue.

Although remember that BB is getting up there in age. How long do you think he wants to continue coaching?

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Segue, but interesting question because BB is on record, emphatically, on this subject -- *you won't see me coaching on my 70s.* And it's particularly interesting to me because he usually is Mr. Depends On The Circumstances.

Today he is 64 years, 6 months.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

You could have stopped typing right there.

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Well, because you're so interested...Greg Bedard, senior writer for SI, agreed and said he thinks Bill is the best coach he's ever covered when it comes to player evaluation of his own team. That goes for self scouting used in specific gameplans and for roster decisions of internal impending free agents. Bedard thinks NE will try to keep both QBs as long as possible but if he was forced to pick right now, he thinks Garoppolo outlasts Tom in a Patriot uniform (but he was sure to add that he wasn't super confident with that prediction). And fwiw, you can hate F&M as much as you want, and I'd agree with you most of the time, but Bedard's insight during his two hour visits every Tuesday makes for great radio. He's fantastic.

Pandemonium67 said:

"If he thinks Brady will be great for three years..."

And that's where it gets tricky. There has never been anyone like Brady -- a guy whose idea of indulgence is an avocado sugarless non-dairy milkshake, followed by staying up on Friday night to 10:30. He takes care of himself like no other QB.

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I agree with @crystalline - excellent post. You're right, if there is a guy who can buck the odds and play at a high level until he's 43 or 44, it's Brady. His seemingly Spartan like lifestyle is borderline fanatical.

So suppose Brady plays at a high (but declining, at least towards the end) level through 2018, and at the end of the season, he can see the all-time records for TDs and 4th quarter comebacks. Does he retire? Do the Pats let him move on to move up a rank in the record books?

BannedbyNYYFans.com said:

Well, because you're so interested...Greg Bedard, senior writer for SI, agreed and said he thinks Bill is the best coach he's ever covered when it comes to player evaluation of his own team. That goes for self scouting used in specific gameplans and for roster decisions of internal impending free agents. Bedard thinks NE will try to keep both QBs as long as possible but if he was forced to pick right now, he thinks Garoppolo outlasts Tom in a Patriot uniform (but he was sure to add that he wasn't super confident with that prediction). And fwiw, you can hate F&M as much as you want, and I'd agree with you most of the time, but Bedard's insight during his two hour visits every Tuesday makes for great radio. He's fantastic.

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Was just busting your balls man, Bedard is good (from what I read, I don't listen to F&M very often) and I agree mostly with your stance, save the part about BB trading Brady. I don't see that ever happening, but obviously it's nonzero.

Barnwell with a deep dive on this today. You can agree or disagree with his points (I found myself doing a bit of both), but one huge factor he points out ... Garappolo and Brady have the same agent, Don Yee

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17609350/the-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-hall-famer-way-many-possibilities-2016-nfl

Yeah I didn't know that either. It gives me hope. Honestly, I might be crazy, but I think there is a non-zero chance that Jimmy could sign something like a 4 year deal worth $40 ish million after his contract expires next year, while Brady signs through say 2019, and then Jimmy could take the reigns. Maybe Jimmy realizes that the best option for his long term success is to stay in NE. Maybe.

The key factor is simple. Brady's career is about over. We have no idea how it is going to end. He may get injured. His play may start to decline dramatically forcing the Patriots hand. I guess it is possible he plays at a high level through 2018, but he is at the point in his career where his productivity could plummet. Time always wins. One thing I do know. BB is not going to coach a team with a crappy QB. So, it may not be JG, but we all should have faith they will play their cards right to have a solid QB post Brady.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Was just busting your balls man, Bedard is good (from what I read, I don't listen to F&M very often) and I agree mostly with your stance, save the part about BB trading Brady. I don't see that ever happening, but obviously it's nonzero.

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No offense taken, PP. I've seen (and appreciated) your posts long enough to know you're a ball buster.

Great post by @E5 Yaz , I had no idea Yee was Garoppolo's agent. I wonder if the whole DFG drama helped or hurt Yee's relationship with Belichick and the Krafts.

E5 Yaz said:

Barnwell with a deep dive on this today. You can agree or disagree with his points (I found myself doing a bit of both), but one huge factor he points out ... Garappolo and Brady have the same agent, Don Yee

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17609350/the-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-hall-famer-way-many-possibilities-2016-nfl

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That is an interesting point.
I have always had a tough time with Barnwell as everything he writes tends to slant against the Pats and Brady (that is probably just all in my head as a Pats fan).
He brought up some great points but he did lose me when started touting QBR.
I have watched both Pats games and Jimmy G was not "magnificent" against Arizona in my opinion. He played really well, but I would save the magnificent for what he did against the Dolphins and that was only for 2 quarters. I mean Jacoby came in and played okay right off the bench.
He did hammer home the point that BB will have a plan and do what is best for the Pats.

The Barnwell article was a good read. His compensation conclusion was a reach though. The Schaub and Cassel trades will have just about nothing to do with any potential JG trade this offseason. Yes, a college player drafted in the top 10 has a rookie contract and is younger, but I just can't conclude that those factors make him more valuable than a kind of proven JG. You'd think a team picking 5th would use that pick as their starting point and be willing to add other picks to it. Common sense and the Goff, Wentz, and Bradford deals all dictate that.

That said I am more in favor of keeping him, even if it means the unthinkable (assuming a restructure with Brady makes it financially possible).

E5 Yaz said:

Barnwell with a deep dive on this today. You can agree or disagree with his points (I found myself doing a bit of both), but one huge factor he points out ... Garappolo and Brady have the same agent, Don Yee

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17609350/the-patriots-jimmy-garoppolo-hall-famer-way-many-possibilities-2016-nfl

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That was a good read but I think he does a little sleight of hand regarding the cap possibilities for the 2017 offseason.

If the Patriots release or trade Brady after the 2017 season, its a $14M cap hit which can either be swallowed at once or spread over two years (if designated as a post-June 1 cut). They can pretty easily sign JG to the type of contract that Barnwell suggests ($20M AAV) while reducing the first year hit to smooth the values, such that total 2018 cap allotment to the QB position is in the 20-$25M range, which is pretty common among teams with elite QBs.

Heck, if they could convince JG to sign that type of contract even without Brady off the roster in 2018, by backloading the JG deal they could probably enter 2018 with total cap commitments to the QB position for that year only in the $30M range. That is high but not totally off the charts crazy by any means.

Ultimately, I don't think the salary cap is going to be the big problem here. Its going to be deciding when and how to move on from Brady and whether or not JG is truly the long-term answer as a successor. As with most cases in the NFL, the salary cap issues in the short term can be creatively managed.

I think this largely comes down to (a) whether they think Brady will play through 2018, and (b) what they think they have in Brissett. Unless Brady falls off a cliff this year, it is safe to assume that he will play at least through 2017. He is the starter, and it would be fine keep Jimmy G as the backup because he is on his rookie contract.

In 2018, if Brady wants to keep playing, they obviously wouldn't resign Jimmy G to a fair market deal. You aren't going to pay two QBs $35-40m combined, even if it is for just one year. But letting him walk likely means a 3rd round pick as compensation. In that case, you maximize your ROI by trading him this off-season.

An interesting sub-plot, btw, is that Jimmy G's trade value may be inversely proportional to Brissett's success. If Jacoby steps in and plays well for the next two games, the book may become, "Ahh, the Pats can throw anyone at QB and make him look like an all-pro. Jimmy G's numbers were just a product of the system. He's basically Matt Cassel."

CoolPapaLaSchelle said:

I think this largely comes down to (a) whether they think Brady will play through 2018, and (b) what they think they have in Brissett. Unless Brady falls off a cliff this year, it is safe to assume that he will play at least through 2017. He is the starter, and it would be fine keep Jimmy G as the backup because he is on his rookie contract.

In 2018, if Brady wants to keep playing, they obviously wouldn't resign Jimmy G to a fair market deal. You aren't going to pay two QBs $35-40m combined, even if it is for just one year. But letting him walk likely means a 3rd round pick as compensation. In that case, you maximize your ROI by trading him this off-season."

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I think this clarifies why you keep Jimmy G through the end of his rookie deal (barring an unexpectedly great showing from Brissett). Say the expected price for Jimmy G if traded in the offseason is a first-rounder (it could be higher, could be lower -- I think that's slightly optimistic). If Brady remains elite through 2017 and wants to play in 2018, then a.) God bless us all, and b.) you still get a third for Garropolo as compensation. Having a great back-up QB on hand in 2017, to me, feels like it's worth the difference between a 1st and a 3rd.

The cap issues are the biggest reality. If you want to keep the defensive guys (Collins, Hightower, Butler, even Sheard) you can't keep JG beyond next year, without doing some kind of crazy deal that shoehorns him in and they kick the an down the road. And the Pats don't do that.

I know he's looked good, but it amazes me how quickly we are talking about trading Brady after six quarters of the Jimmy G era. God forbid Brisset plays well tonite, I can only imagine the scenarios dreamt up.

One thing to be considered, which no one knows the answer to, is what BB's plan is for himself. He's stated he doesn't want to be a Mary Levy type, coaching into his eighties. We've all bandied about if he will walk away when Brady does or stick around to try to do it without him. I think the answer there will tell us what he will do with JG and vice versa.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

The cap issues are the biggest reality. If you want to keep the defensive guys (Collins, Hightower, Butler, even Sheard) you can't keep JG beyond next year, without doing some kind of crazy deal that shoehorns him in and they kick the an down the road. And the Pats don't do that.

I know he's looked good, but it amazes me how quickly we are talking about trading Brady after six quarters of the Jimmy G era. God forbid Brisset plays well tonite, I can only imagine the scenarios dreamt up.

One thing to be considered, which no one knows the answer to, is what BB's plan is for himself. He's stated he doesn't want to be a Mary Levy type, coaching into his eighties. We've all bandied about if he will walk away when Brady does or stick around to try to do it without him. I think the answer there will tell us what he will do with JG and vice versa.

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The reason we are talking about Brady is that he will be 41 in 2018, and there is no guarantee that Brady will BRADY! in 2018, or even half of BRADY!. The other reason is that Brady's contract makes a trade of Brady in 2018 feasible.

I would prefer Brady 2018 to be Ortiz 2016, with his last game a victory in Atlanta. But this is the NFL, and avocado juice and concussion water do not prevent 300lb lineman pounding a 41 year old body to the turf.

lexrageorge said:

The reason we are talking about Brady is that he will be 41 in 2018, and there is no guarantee that Brady will BRADY! in 2018, or even half of BRADY!. The other reason is that Brady's contract makes a trade of Brady in 2018 feasible.

I would prefer Brady 2018 to be Ortiz 2016, with his last game a victory in Atlanta. But this is the NFL, and avocado juice and concussion water do not prevent 300lb lineman pounding a 41 year old body to the turf.

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Exactly. I don't care how much he works out and how much probiotics and antioxidants he consumes, he is approaching 40 years old. We don't need to go over the history of NFL QBs in their 40s. I am just hoping it ends well, and there is a smooth transition to his successor.

lexrageorge said:

The reason we are talking about Brady is that he will be 41 in 2018, and there is no guarantee that Brady will BRADY! in 2018, or even half of BRADY!. The other reason is that Brady's contract makes a trade of Brady in 2018 feasible.

I would prefer Brady 2018 to be Ortiz 2016, with his last game a victory in Atlanta. But this is the NFL, and avocado juice and concussion water do not prevent 300lb lineman pounding a 41 year old body to the turf.

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I'm fully aware of Brady's age. And the future going forward. But bottom line is that it's six quarters of football that has a large contingent now flipping their script and not only discussing the possibility but advocating for it. Before the season started no one was considering it a realistic possibility. I don't see that six quarters should change that in such a manner.

Man, I really wish we could have seen Jimmy for the entirety of these four games.

But when I think hard about this, if what we saw is real (BB knows better than anyone if it is), you have to move on from Brady after next season if you can secure Jimmy.

It is really, really hard to find a good quarterback (ask Browns fans), and if you have one in hand you just can't let him go because you want to let the older guy have the luxury of leaving only when he's ready to leave.

Can't believe we wasted all these bytes on Wally Pipp.

H78 said:

Man, I really wish we could have seen Jimmy for the entirety of these four games.

But when I think hard about this, if what we saw is real (BB knows better than anyone if it is), you have to move on from Brady after next season if you can secure Jimmy.

It is really, really hard to find a good quarterback (ask Browns fans), and if you have one in hand you just can't let him go because you want to let the older guy have the luxury of leaving only when he's ready to leave.

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Jacoby filled in admirably for a true rookie. This win by him is almost as impressive as what Jimmy did versus Arizona.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

I'm fully aware of Brady's age. And the future going forward. But bottom line is that it's six quarters of football that has a large contingent now flipping their script and not only discussing the possibility but advocating for it. Before the season started no one was considering it a realistic possibility. I don't see that six quarters should change that in such a manner.

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Sign me up in the camp that getting rid of Brady in favor of Jimmy is a mistake. Jimmy will have tremendous trade value, and I will take my chances with BB and Jacoby after Brady retires.

We all agree JG is a handsome dude. Have Brady set him up with some mega wealthy model that out earns him and then he will take a below market deal like Brady. Solves the cap problems of re-signing him.

lexrageorge said:

I realize we're getting way ahead of ourselves with the hypotheticals, but I see 4 scenarios how Brady leaves:

a.) He decides to call it a day after 2017 or 2018 while still a Patriot and still playing reasonably well. Avocado juice can only do so much when you have 300 pound guys trying to drive you to the turf every week.

b.) He is traded to a team of his choosing in 2018 or 2019 for a fairly small return.

c.) He is given his release after 2017 or after 2018. There will be no stipulations or side agreements or anything else. There's too much downside there, and no real upside for anyone involved.

d.) He plays out his contract, and then leaves as free agent or simply retires. And the Patriots welcome Jacoby as their new starting QB in 2020.

Nothing else makes any sense.

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e. Mid season injury, doesn't rehab well, JG (or JB) tearing it up, TB12 IR'd then he just doesn't return.

Edit: I should say, I don't mean JG tearing it up 'Brady in his prime' style. I should have said 'playing well'.

Can I be the first to say "small sample size?"

CoolPapaLaSchelle said:

Unless Brady falls off a cliff this year, it is safe to assume that he will play at least through 2017.

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This is not a safe assumption at all. Favre, Manning, and Marino all had years where they were absolutely elite, followed by years where they were among the worst in the league.

Brady is right at the age where elite performance can very quickly be followed by below-replacement performance. You really can't make any positive performance assumptions going forward.

Hoodie Sleeves said:

This is not a safe assumption at all. Favre, Manning, and Marino all had years where they were absolutely elite, followed by years where they were among the worst in the league.

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Isn't that exactly what he said? That unless Brady craps the bed when he returns, he's back next season ("through 2017")?

DrewDawg said:

Isn't that exactly what he said? That unless Brady craps the bed when he returns, he's back next season ("through 2017")?

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No - the point is that there's a reasonable probability that he looks great this year, and then isn't a viable quarterback next year. 40ish quarterbacks fall apart pretty much overnight.

If by "back" you mean he shows up at training camp, sure. If by "back" you mean a reasonable facsimile of an above average NFL quarterback, then there's absolutely no guarantee.

Hoodie Sleeves said:

No - the point is that there's a reasonable probability that he looks great this year, and then isn't a viable quarterback next year. 40ish quarterbacks fall apart pretty much overnight.

If by "back" you mean he shows up at training camp, sure. If by "back" you mean a reasonable facsimile of an above average NFL quarterback, then there's absolutely no guarantee.

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The point is that if he's looks like Tom Brady this season, by the time they figure out he's not a viable quarterback the 17 season is likely fucked and they're not going to kick him to the curb midseason. They're certainly not going to bench him based on training camp.

So yes, it's what he said. Much like Favre, Manning and Marino got a season to show hey were done. Unless he shits the bed the remainder of '16 he will be the starter for '17. And even if he does it's still 97%+ likely he is.

No ones arguing you that qbs can drop off a cliff. But short of catastrophic injury this year your comps are poor. Manning's neck, Marino's Achilles and Favre's long injury history, pain killer addiction and switching teams and systems the last few years are not factors here. Even I f Brady blows something out he's going to get the chance to be the qb next season if for no other reason than the cap hit. And a twelve game season this year likely reduced the chances of him declining at a precipitous rate next year.

Hoodie Sleeves said:

No - the point is that there's a reasonable probability that he looks great this year, and then isn't a viable quarterback next year. 40ish quarterbacks fall apart pretty much overnight.

If by "back" you mean he shows up at training camp, sure. If by "back" you mean a reasonable facsimile of an above average NFL quarterback, then there's absolutely no guarantee.

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If Tom Brady is good this year, no matter how shitty training camp is next year, he's not getting cut. So if he plays decent this year he's back "through 2017" which was the poster's point.

DrewDawg said:

If Tom Brady is good this year, no matter how shitty training camp is next year, he's not getting cut. So if he plays decent this year he's back "through 2017" which was the poster's point.

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He's back, yes, but I think BB moves on from him as a starter in that case much quicker than Denver did for Manning. If he's 2015 Manning, he's lost his job by week 4 or 5.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

No ones arguing you that qbs can drop off a cliff. But short of catastrophic injury this year your comps are poor. Manning's neck, Marino's Achilles and Favre's long injury history, pain killer addiction and switching teams and systems the last few years are not factors here. .

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The problem with this argument is the "short a catastrophic injury" part - as you get older these things become more common, and healing gets slower. Again, there's a reason there's basically no comparables

Again--all anyone is saying is that unless Brady completely shits the bed the rest of this year, he's going to be on the team in 2017. Which is what was meant by saying he's "playing through 2017".

Of course if he's injured that changes things. We're talking about the Patriots having these 3 QBs around through at least 2017. And there is NOTHING outside of this unpredictable injury that will stop that from happening outside of some Ryan Leaf-like 12 game stretch from Brady this year. And since you can't predict injury (yes, it's more likely now that he's 103, but there's still no % you can put on it) and the chances he sucks are low, it's entirely reasonable to say Brady will be here through next year. Unless you want the team's planning to wait until after the year to see if anyone gets hurt.

That was the entire point.

DrewDawg said:

Of course if he's injured that changes things. We're talking about the Patriots having these 3 QBs around through at least 2017. And there is NOTHING outside of this unpredictable injury that will stop that from happening outside of some Ryan Leaf-like 12 game stretch from Brady this year. And since you can't predict injury (yes, it's more likely now that he's 103, but there's still no % you can put on it) and the chances he sucks are low, it's entirely reasonable to say Brady will be here through next year. Unless you want the team's planning to wait until after the year to see if anyone gets hurt.

That was the entire point.

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Right - I get that - I just think it's a facile point.

The Patriots shouldn't be making decisions about Garappolo (or Brisset) based on whether or not Brady is going to be on the team - they should be making those decisions based on whatever they think the chances are of Brady being an elite quarterback in that particular year.

It doesn't really matter if Brady is on the team (in 17, or 18, or whatever) if he's not an effective starter.

They gave Brady a contract extension like five months ago and structured his contract in a way that makes him uncuttable in '17 and not particularly easy to move on from in '18. Right or wrong, I think the team believes the chances of Brady being an elite quarterback for the next several years is pretty high.

Stitch01 said:

They gave Brady a contract extension like five months ago and structured his contract in a way that makes him uncuttable in '17 and not particularly easy to move on from in '18. Right or wrong, I think the team believes the chances of Brady being an elite quarterback for the next several years is pretty high.

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Actually, his contract makes him tradeable or cuttable in 2018. They would have a dead money charge of $14M, but they actually would save $$$ on the cap. I'll go on the record as saying that I don't think either will happen, and there is the chance of another restructure next year if the team thinks Brady will play for them in 2018.