2016 Broncos Thread: Elway or the Highway

Shelterdog

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Is that really the case that there is a very good chance it won't work out? I'm trying to think of big money non-QB deals and it seems to be a very mixed bag. Of course, one's definition of "big money" can vary. When you look at OL, it seems like they seem to work out more often than not. Looking backwards (and in some of these cases it is hard to evaluate as you don't want to only look at the first 3 years I assume), you have Joe Thomas, Jon Runyan, Jason Peters, et al on the positive side of the docket, Jahri Evans kind of in the "Hmmmm....." side of the docket and I struggled to think of guys who really stunk as FA OL, but it's early.
There are certainly some contract that work out but the problem is the injury rate is so high that even a player's skill level when healthy is worth the top tier contract you likely lose games due to injury. So Jason peters had a 8.8 million cap hit in 2012 when he played no games; he might be worth it every other year but that's just a ton of wasted space on one player and it's really hard for his surplus value in healthy years to be worth that much. I'm also thinking of guys like Mankins who had a 7 million hit in 2012 and played 10 games (and played poorly in a bunch as he came back from injury) or Wilfork (8.6 million hit in 2012; played 4 games). In Revis's second contract with the jets he lost most of 2012 due to injury and had an 11.5 million cap hit that year and then he cost them 13 million in 2013 when he was playing in Tampa (a lost mitigated by the first round pick they got in the deal). Is 24.5 million over 2 years worth 2 games of Revis and a first? (Yes if you value a first at Sheldon Richardson, who they took with the Bucs pick--but perhaps not if you use the average value of the pick).


QBs are tough because--at least as I see it--they actually can provide meaningful surplus value on even a large contract. A healthy Brees/Manning/Brady/River gets you awfully close to the playoffs with even a marginal cast. The flip side is that below average QB play at 20 million gives you massive negative value that's hard to come back from.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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There are certainly some contract that work out but the problem is the injury rate is so high that even a player's skill level when healthy is worth the top tier contract you likely lose games due to injury. So Jason peters had a 8.8 million cap hit in 2012 when he played no games; he might be worth it every other year but that's just a ton of wasted space on one player and it's really hard for his surplus value in healthy years to be worth that much. I'm also thinking of guys like Mankins who had a 7 million hit in 2012 and played 10 games (and played poorly in a bunch as he came back from injury) or Wilfork (8.6 million hit in 2012; played 4 games). In Revis's second contract with the jets he lost most of 2012 due to injury and had an 11.5 million cap hit that year and then he cost them 13 million in 2013 when he was playing in Tampa (a lost mitigated by the first round pick they got in the deal). Is 24.5 million over 2 years worth 2 games of Revis and a first? (Yes if you value a first at Sheldon Richardson, who they took with the Bucs pick--but perhaps not if you use the average value of the pick).


QBs are tough because--at least as I see it--they actually can provide meaningful surplus value on even a large contract. A healthy Brees/Manning/Brady/River gets you awfully close to the playoffs with even a marginal cast. The flip side is that below average QB play at 20 million gives you massive negative value that's hard to come back from.
Reasonable analysis. I have to admit, your point on Peters is very fair and provokes a lot of thought.
 

86spike

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Every big money contract bears risk in the NFL, QB or not. Injuries happen. Von has already had an ACL reconstruction.

Miller's deal is effectively only guaranteed for 3 years so that's his age 27, 28 and 29 seasons. Barring catastrophic injury, which is a risk for all NFL deals, paying him top money for those years seems like a risk worth takign when you're talking about one of the top 3 or 4 defensive players in the game.
 

86spike

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Denver extends Emmanuel Sanders for 3 more years at $11M per year.

Love locking him in. Demaryius Thomas may have more God given talent and physical skill, but Sanders has three times the drive and heart. They will be a super expensive duo but if Lynch pans out the QB salary will be peanuts during Sanders' deal so it works out.

The Broncos are now set with their key parts for the next 3 seasons (again, if Lynch works out at QB).

Let's kick off the season!
 

Silverdude2167

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I have never been an Elway fan so take this with a grain of salt, but that is now 23 million (15% of the cap) tied up in two receivers going forward.

Add in Von Miller and that is 43 million and 27.7% of the cap in three players.

That does not seem like a winning strategy.
 
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Super Nomario

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I have never been an Elway fan so take this with a grain of salt, but that is now 23 million (15% of the cap) tied up in two receivers going forward.

Add in Von Miller and that is 43 million and 27.7% of the cap in three players.

That does not seem like a winning strategy.
It's more interesting than anything. The Broncos have invested a ton in WR, edge rushers, and CBs - which are exactly the positions that the Patriots go cheap on. Meanwhile, the Broncos go cheap on LB and they let DTs and TEs walk - all positions New England invests a lot in. Shows there is more than one way to skin a cat.
 

Rook05

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I have never been an Elway fan so take this with a grain of salt, but that is now 23 million (15% of the cap) tied up in two receivers going forward.

Add in Von Miller and that is 43 million and 27.7% of the cap in three players.

That does not seem like a winning strategy.
Meh--We've been waiting for the other shoe to drop with the Broncos salary cap for the past three years. I for one fully admit that Elway shines in that aspect of roster construction. You can say the jury is out on scouting and drafting, but he's been nails in the free agent and veteran-resigning game.

On a separate note, how many of us wish with could go back in time and tell Belichick to get the Sanders deal done? He'd have been a monster in NE.
 

Silverdude2167

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It's more interesting than anything. The Broncos have invested a ton in WR, edge rushers, and CBs - which are exactly the positions that the Patriots go cheap on. Meanwhile, the Broncos go cheap on LB and they let DTs and TEs walk - all positions New England invests a lot in. Shows there is more than one way to skin a cat.
My only issue is with the WR spending. They did not win anything last year because of the wideouts. They won because they were very healthy, got a ton of breaks(most champs do) and Elway did not miss on FA's which is always a risk.
 

Super Nomario

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My only issue is with the WR spending. They did not win anything last year because of the wideouts. They won because they were very healthy, got a ton of breaks(most champs do) and Elway did not miss on FA's which is always a risk.
I think that's looking narrowly at just 2015. The Broncos may not have won a Super Bowl from 2012-2014, but they went 38-10 and finished in the top two in points every year. And Thomas (1304 yards and 6 TDs) and Sanders (1135 yards and 6 TDs) both produced last year - the problem was they had nothing else (Owen Daniels was their third-leading receiver; Jordan Norwood was their #3 wideout).
 

jablo1312

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I don't think there's any question that Elway has, so far, shown himself/the organization he has put together to be one of the best in the league at drafting and developing talent. Whether it's been a hot streak, or something that will continue for years to come, remains to be seen.
 

j-man

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this is going to be a heartattick year for me

Denver is going to be good maybe AFC West Champs but after last night unless NE or Pitt has a ton of Inj NE Gronk OL pitt Ben Bell idthink Denver can win the afc

unless goodell hates NE so much he sented last night refs to the AFC Champ game

the good the QB can be a 19-20 TD 14-15 INT Guy which might be ok for this season but going foward will not work
RB is good but if anderson goes down we are fubar

the bad look simeian has to start 2-1 3-0 to give denver a fighting chance in jan the Off might be around 15 or so this year which is good for now but will not work later no inside pass rush teams that can run the ball will give denver trouble

to beat denver u are going to have to be smashmouth to beat us
 

pappymojo

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I don't think there's any question that Elway has, so far, shown himself/the organization he has put together to be one of the best in the league at drafting and developing talent. Whether it's been a hot streak, or something that will continue for years to come, remains to be seen.
No snark, what players did Elway draft or develop?
 

Rudy's Curve

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No snark, what players did Elway draft or develop?
Malik Jackson? Danny Trevathan? Brandon Marshall? Derek Wolfe? Chris Harris? That's just to name a few.

Denver supplemented its defense through FA and lucked into a generational talent with Miller but they got a ton of contributions from guys that weren't super high picks.
 

tims4wins

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Two observations:

1) The Broncos continue to invent new forms of luck. Throw a pick 6? Don't worry, the CB will pull up lame like he's been shot

2) Another dirty cheap shot on a QB. If the league won't eject or suspend players then this is going to keep getting worse because the shots are worth the flags

That said the Denver D is a nightmare to play against and the offense is similar to last year. Going to Denver in January must be avoided.
 

86spike

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Malik Jackson? Danny Trevathan? Brandon Marshall? Derek Wolfe? Chris Harris? That's just to name a few.

Denver supplemented its defense through FA and lucked into a generational talent with Miller but they got a ton of contributions from guys that weren't super high picks.
Lucked into Von Miller? Denver paid dearly for him in the form of enduring the ratfucker Josh McDaniels' 4-12 shitstain season. LOL
 

j-man

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Two observations:

1) The Broncos continue to invent new forms of luck. Throw a pick 6? Don't worry, the CB will pull up lame like he's been shot

2) Another dirty cheap shot on a QB. If the league won't eject or suspend players then this is going to keep getting worse because the shots are worth the flags

That said the Denver D is a nightmare to play against and the offense is similar to last year. Going to Denver in January must be avoided.

blame goodell for denver good fourure a win sunday in Ciny wouild spell big trouble for NE and Pitt as denver would be favored at least 5 of the next 6 weeks after Ciny and a win sunday would lead to a 9-1 start for denver with 13-3 being likely

that said i am starting to think only 2 things can stop denver from a repeat
1 INJ guys like steveton okung go down denver is in troble
2 NE is the only team that can beat denver toe to toe for most teams to beat denver Denver must turn the ball over 2+ and get no TO back
yes pittvurgh is very good but a great def DEN NE can contal their off

basically for goddell its give brady ring num 5 or make denver inmoral with the steel curtain
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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blame goodell for denver good fourure a win sunday in Ciny wouild spell big trouble for NE and Pitt as denver would be favored at least 5 of the next 6 weeks after Ciny and a win sunday would lead to a 9-1 start for denver with 13-3 being likely

that said i am starting to think only 2 things can stop denver from a repeat
1 INJ guys like steveton okung go down denver is in troble
2 NE is the only team that can beat denver toe to toe for most teams to beat denver Denver must turn the ball over 2+ and get no TO back
yes pittvurgh is very good but a great def DEN NE can contal their off

basically for goddell its give brady ring num 5 or make denver inmoral with the steel curtain
You may be right, but so far I haven't seen THE DENVER DEFENSE the same way that they were in the playoffs last season.

Also.....I am not loving their QB situation if I had money on them for the playoffs.

We'll see, they are certainly in the pool of tier 1 teams.
 

Sox and Rocks

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Denver is clearly still good, especially on defense, but that's no surprise. Also, their Oline has been better, but again, given the low standard set by last year's line, that's not a surprise either.

As j-man notes, injuries will be a factor for them, like it is for any team. Last year they had very few, which undoubtedly helped with their Superbowl run. Will they be as fortunate this year?

The other factor is that Simien, as a young and first time starter, needs to prove what he can do on the road where crowd noise affects the offense and the QB, in particular. So far Denver has played two games at home where he hasn't had to deal with this. It will be interesting to see how he handles his first road game this weekend, against a pretty good defense.
 

TomTerrific

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I hear he played pretty well at Notre Dame.
Later in the game he did, true, but it's also true that a whole bunch of people overperformed in that game. For example, the kicker whose previous long was 29 yards hit three kicks over 40 in that game. Balance his ND performance against the myriad of games he screwed up while at NU (the 10-9 home loss against Michigan just before the ND game, for example).

I would love Siemian to do well (except against the Pats, of course) but I still can't convince myself that he can ever be anything more than a below-average NFL starter in the best of all possible worlds. Of course, before this year I would have bet he could never even start, so there's that.
 

loshjott

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Also, Denver hasn't played a meaningful true road game since Dec 20, 2015, when they lost at Pittsburgh. They haven't won a meaningful true road game since beating the Chargers last Dec 6.

Their hardest 2016 out of division roadie is coming up this week against Cincy. @ Raiders and @ Chiefs may be tough but they get the Pats and Texans at home, plus home wins in the bank against Panthers and Colts.

They have the inside track for #1 seed already.
 

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Lucked into Von Miller? Denver paid dearly for him in the form of enduring the ratfucker Josh McDaniels' 4-12 shitstain season. LOL
I think he is saying they were lucky that the top pass rusher in Denver's year at the top of the draft was Von Miller and not a Clowney, Fowler or Deon Jordan.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I think he is saying they were lucky that the top pass rusher in Denver's year at the top of the draft was Von Miller and not a Clowney, Fowler or Deon Jordan.
Yeah, that's what I was getting at. On a side note, my god the 2011 first round was good. There are four likely HOFers (Miller/Green/Jones/Watt) and a ton of very good players (Newton, Dareus, Peterson, Aldon Smith before he got in too much trouble, Tyron Smith, Quinn, Mike Pouncey, Kerrigan, Liuget, Jordan, Wilkerson, Heyward) plus Ingram has really come on the last couple years after a rough start. And yet despite all that, three of the top 12 picks were Locker, Gabbert and Ponder.
 
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86spike

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Near the end of the first quarter today I said to my wife "Siemian just doesn't seem to have what it takes. He's had several plays extended by the refs and he still can't perform in the red zone. They should get Lynch ready to start ASAP."

At the end of the game I'm wondering how many rings he can win over the next decade. 3 or 4 maybe? LOL.

Cincinnati fucked themselves a few times with bad penalties and dropping a few intercept-able passes, but if that second half offense is anything close to repeatable, this might be a lot more interesting season in Denver than I expected. If he can reliably get the ball to Sanders and Thomas like he did today, look out.

The kid looked a lot better than a guy making his third career (and first road) start would be expected to look.
 

Gunfighter 09

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I think there are three teams that are pretty good and San Diego is a pain in the ass that will upset a few people this year. The AFC West is going to produce at least one wild card team that will be a very tough and have a tough division winner. I have a hard time seeing any of the teams winning more than 4 division games, so that means the winner will likely be a 2 or 3 seed.
 

j-man

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I think there are three teams that are pretty good and San Diego is a pain in the ass that will upset a few people this year. The AFC West is going to produce at least one wild card team that will be a very tough and have a tough division winner. I have a hard time seeing any of the teams winning more than 4 division games, so that means the winner will likely be a 2 or 3 seed.
sorry SD is too banged up lost too many wepaons i expect denver to be 8-0 for nov 6 denver will be 13-3 or 14-2 oakland is a 10 win team plob going to be @ houton in jan
 

j-man

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Near the end of the first quarter today I said to my wife "Siemian just doesn't seem to have what it takes. He's had several plays extended by the refs and he still can't perform in the red zone. They should get Lynch ready to start ASAP."

At the end of the game I'm wondering how many rings he can win over the next decade. 3 or 4 maybe? LOL.

Cincinnati fucked themselves a few times with bad penalties and dropping a few intercept-able passes, but if that second half offense is anything close to repeatable, this might be a lot more interesting season in Denver than I expected. If he can reliably get the ball to Sanders and Thomas like he did today, look out.

The kid looked a lot better than a guy making his third career (and first road) start would be expected to look.
\

pump the breaks for now Siemian is better than we all throuht and today game was outstading but can he do it aga NE
and in the playoffs
 

Gunfighter 09

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I think much like last year Denver will split with Oakland and KC. There are three 9-12 win teams in the division. The only 13 or 14 win team in the conference is New England.


That was a very impressive win today, but I welcome the thought of Siemian throwing 35 passes every week.
 

Toe Nash

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I didn't have the same feeling as some. Good win but it could have gone either way which is what I expected going in. Cincy threw away the game early with penalties and missed INTs. They had 3 killer penalties which extended the first Broncos scoring drive, and two Siemian passes hit CIN defenders in the hands. Very different if that doesn't happen.

On the long TDs, I thought Sanders pushed off a bit on the first, but credit to him for keeping it borderline. On the Thomas bomb, it was awful coaching -- Adam Jones had just gone out of the game, so Chris Lewis-Harris was covering Thomas, and for some stupid reason they decided to blitz (on 3rd and 11) and leave him on an island. That's a mismatch on the level of Marcus Cannon v. Von Miller.

Obviously credit to Siemian and the team for taking advantage of these things. Cincy could be so good if they had a better coach though.

Pretty sick of hearing about Siemian's calm demeanor already.
 

tims4wins

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Denver is really, really, really good and frankly, that pisses me off.
Yep. Last year like 500 things had to go perfectly right for them to end up in the Super Bowl, and they basically all went right. I am talking about the first KC game, the game in Cleveland where Manning threw a pick in his own territory in OT and they still won, the first Raiders game where Oakland was driving for the winning FG and threw a pick 6, the Chris Harper muff / DH / Gronk injuries, the Pats losing to Philly, Miami, and the Jets, the Steelers fumble in the playoff game, and probably a dozen other things.

So far this year they have had a last second missed FG against them, and also had a CB go down on an uncontested pick 6 that might have altered the game. So luck is in their favor again so far. But they almost appear better than last year, and will require less luck.
 

Rook05

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So regarding the "luck" factor, Denver finally sees an injury at a key position in Ware and what happens? Six tackles and three sacks for Shane Ray. Damn you, Scuba Steve.
 

Leather

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They look good but, again, it's week 3. Things happen, and they happen even more frequently to inexperienced QBs.

Yeah, they could (and likely will be) still good in 10 weeks, but odds are they will be materially different than they are, currently.

Remember in 2002 when the Pats started off on fire and then the league caught up to them a bit, their defense slowed down, and they missed the playoffs? It happens.
 

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All true. But as has been true since about 2011 or whenever Manning went to Denver, the Pats worst chance of getting where we want them to is having to play in Denver in January.
 

Gunfighter 09

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I think they are really good, but not 13+ wins good being so lopsided.

The last 10 NFL teams to win 13+ achieved the following ranks in terms of offensive yardage:
1st Arizona 15
11th Carolina 15
1st Denver 13
8th Seattle 13
4th Denver 12
8th Atlanta 12
2nd Pats 11
26th 49ers 11
1st Saints 11
3rd Packers 11


Only two outside the top ten and one outside the top 11. Seimian is going to have to be the guy he was yesterday for them to meet J-man's expectations. I don't see that happening.
 

Toe Nash

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I think it's probable at this point that Siemian is better than the Manning/Osweiler combo. But as discussed that team needed a lot of breaks to win 12 games. So, is he enough of an improvement to make up for likely regression in terms of luck?
 

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Taking a look at the rest of Denver's schedule:
  • 4 OCT 2 2:05PMMDT * AT
    BUCCANEERS
  • 5 OCT 9 2:05PMMDT )
    FALCONS
  • 6 OCT 13 6:25PMMDT * , AT
    CHARGERS
  • 7 OCT 24 6:30PMMDT +
    TEXANS
  • 8 OCT 30 2:05PMMDT *
    CHARGERS
  • 9 NOV 6 6:30PMMST ' AT
    RAIDERS
  • 10 NOV 13 11:00AMMST * AT
    SAINTS
  • 11 BYE
  • 12 NOV 27 2:25PMMST *
    CHIEFS
  • 13 DEC 4 11:00AMMST * AT
    JAGUARS
  • 14 DEC 11 11:00AMMST * AT
    TITANS
  • 15 DEC 18 2:25PMMST *
    PATRIOTS
  • 16 DEC 25 6:30PMMST ' AT
    CHIEFS
  • 17 JAN 1 2:25PMMST *
    RAIDERS

Their 6 remaining home games include, in order of toughness (top being toughest - rankings my opinion):

New England (Week 15)
Oakland (Week 17)
KC (Week 12 - after the bye)
Atlanta (Week 5)
Texans (Week 7)
SD (Week 8)

I'd say they are good for 4 maybe 5 wins there.

The 7 remaining road games include, in order of toughness (top being toughest - rankings my opinion):

@ Oakland (Week 9)
@ Saints (Week 10 - Brees is deadly in the Superdome)
@ KC (Week 16)
@ TB (week 4)
@ SD (Week 6 - Thursday Night game so unpredictable)
@ Titans (Week 14)
@ Jax (Week 13)
(those last 4 could be shuffled)

Probably looking at 4 or 5 wins there too.

So this may be an 11-13 win season for Denver if things stay on course. I think that's enough to win the AFC West, but Oakland (moreso than KC IMO) have a real shot at the division too. Oakland still has @ Bal, Car, Indy, and 2 against both Den and KC so they've got some tough games. Week 17 with Oakland playing in Denver could be for the division title. Interesting.

Digging in a little deeper, the hardest games (the top 3 from both lists) come in Week 9, Week 10, Week 12 (after the bye); Week 15, Week 16 and Week 17. They had 3 tough games to start and then have a soft middle schedule over the next 5 weeks before getting back into the teeth of the competition. Going 3-0 here at the start of the season is really huge for Denver's division hopes.
 
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