The September Callup Thread

E5 Yaz said:

This apparently doesn't matter to some of the experts in this discussion.

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Remind me again what level Francisco Rodriguez was at in 2002?

What level Ric Porcello was at before he was called up to be a starting pitcher and who the GM was who made that call?

What level did Dwight Gooden pitch at in the minors in 1983, before winning rookie of the year in 1984?

I mean half the people who are so sure Kopech isn't currently better than Heath Hembree were apoplectic That the Red Sox traded a pitcher who was doing demonstrably worse a level below Salem for a cost-controlled NL All Star Starter.

Those two positions are incongruent.

Roberto Osuna, the Toronto closer jumped from high A in 2015.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=osuna-002rob

Kopech's stats are an improvement over anything Osuna put up.

It's certainly not unheard of. And I agree that it's a waste of time debating whether he "deserves" the promotion or not. We are not in a position to make value judgements on his character. This is a business .. If the FO thinks he can get guys out at the MLB level better than Heath Hembree or Joe Kelly then I think we'll see him.

Personally I'd love to see it.

Wow, that's a fucking horridly constructed false equivalency. For you, that's saying something considering its you.

For the record, krod was in AAA. Dwight Gooden? Seriously?

Despite the glowing comments by his pitching coach, he doesn't have a secondary pitch that can get major leaguers out consistently. Even your quotes make the point that his slider is inconsistent still. Which is to say nothing of the fact that he's been effective using it against teenagers.

And to your earlier question, yes, I'll take the opinion of a "glorified blogger" who wrote for BP, was highly ranked in an MLB scouting department and is generally considered one of the top two or three prospect experts in the game over a single A pitching coach that had a cup of coffee.

But keep the dream alive man, I'm sure he would be doc2.0.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Wow, that's a fucking horridly constructed false equivalency. For you, that's saying something considering its you.

For the record, krod was in AAA. Dwight Gooden? Seriously?

Despite the glowing comments by his pitching coach, he doesn't have a secondary pitch that can get major leaguers out consistently. Even your quotes make the point that his slider is inconsistent still. Which is to say nothing of the fact that he's been effective using it against teenagers.

And to your earlier question, yes, I'll take the opinion of a "glorified blogger" who wrote for BP, was highly ranked in an MLB scouting department and is generally considered one of the top two or three prospect experts in the game over a single A pitching coach that had a cup of coffee.

But keep the dream alive man, I'm sure he would be doc2.0.

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Ok. A glorified blogger and magazine columnist.

Players in the Carolina League generally are not teenagers. And, the ones who aren't at least somewhat skilled have been weeded out. It's a higher level of ball than college, from which scores of pitchers, particularly relievers, have jumped almost directly to the majors. Most without a 100+ fastball. Brandon Finnegan for a recent example, Chris Sale after 10 minor league innings, David Price with fewer than 70 innings above A ball, Carlos Rodon with fewer than 40 innings above A ball, and Darren Dreifort (though unlike Finnegan and Price, he wasn't very good)

And you're basing your opinion that he can't get major league hitters out on what, exactly? A belief that Keith Law's Internet chat room transcript has more up to date information on a Red Sox prospect than the Red Sox do? Okeedokee.

I'm also not sure that "wipeout pitch" and "dominant weapon" are synonymous with "inconsistent." YMMV. Neither of those statements was prefaced with words to the effect of, "for this level" nor were they spoken in the future tense "will be."

Reality check: Last 3 starts 18 IP, 4 BB, 32 K.

Last 5 starts. 29 IP, 9 BB, 49 K.

John Lester, Clay Buchholz, Curt Schilling, and Drew Pomeranz all got to pitch in A+ too. They didn't do this. Sometimes it's ok to admit someone is an outlier.

Worst case scenario he's Matt Barnes with 3 to 5 mph more fastball. That's an improvement.

Plympton91 said:

Players in the Carolina League generally are not teenagers. And, the ones who aren't at least somewhat skilled have been weeded out. It's a higher level of ball than college, from which scores of pitchers, particularly relievers, have jumped almost directly to the majors. Most without a 100+ fastball.

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Please make the case that A ball hitters are equivalent to MLB hitters. Once you do that, than you can get pedantic about a year or two on the age of the average ballplayer in the Carolina league. The point is that the quality of competition is nowhere near what he would face. This is not up for debate. "At least somewhat skilled" means nothing. There is plenty of filler in every level of the minors, specifically in the lower levels.

Brandon Finnegan for a recent example, Chris Sale after 10 minor league innings, David Price with fewer than 70 innings above A ball, Carlos Rodon with fewer than 40 innings above A ball, and Darren Dreifort (though unlike Finnegan and Price, he wasn't very good)

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You can cite every single player in the history of major league baseball and it doesn't help your case. No one is making the argument that players can't jump from A+ to the majors. They're saying that this player can't do it because he doesn't have the secondary stuff to succeed. And further, listing a bunch of guys that did it coming from college is completely irrelevant to the discussion. Kopech has 134 innings at a competition level higher than high school ball. And no, he's not Doc fucking Gooden.

And you're basing your opinion that he can't get major league hitters out on what, exactly? A belief that Keith Law's Internet chat room transcript has more up to date information on a Red Sox prospect than the Red Sox do? Okeedokee.

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I'm basing my opinion on every scouting report by a non-biased party that exists says his secondary stuff flashes but isn't consistent. And I will take the opinion of the people that are paid and respected to give their opinions on these things over people with personal and organizational ties any day of the week. It's called bias.

I also see no quotes from anyone in the organization saying his stuff is ready for the majors. But I'm sure they would have no reason to speak in the most positive terms about one of their guys. Of course, if you bother to cite your sources, one would be able to read the full context of the quotes you gave to make a determination. And your quote from Bannister could certainly use some context, because I read that last sentence as referring to his fastball and his overall quote as saying nothing either way about the quality of his slider.

I'm also not sure that "wipeout pitch" and "dominant weapon" are synonymous with "inconsistent." YMMV. Neither of those statements was prefaced with words to the effect of, "for this level" nor were they spoken in the future tense "will be."

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Nor were either followed by any words suggesting that they would play up in the majors next week. You're seeing what you want to read. It's a single A coach that sees his guy striking guys out with a pitch he believes has improved.

Reality check: Last 3 starts 18 IP, 4 BB, 32 K.

Last 5 starts. 29 IP, 9 BB, 49 K.

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Reality check: the starts came in A ball and five starts mean nothing. I know you're smart enough to understand that and are choosing to ignore it. But it's still there. Just like his 4.2 BB/9 rate. But you want him to jump there levels into a pennant race based of 3 weeks of seemingly improved command and some boxscores you scouted. okeeedokeee.

John Lester, Clay Buchholz, Curt Schilling, and Drew Pomeranz all got to pitch in A+ too. They didn't do this. Sometimes it's ok to admit someone is an outlier.

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I have literally no idea what your point is or what you're trying to prove. Hey, Tony Solaita hit 49 HRs in the Carolina League in 1968. Should I list all the great HR hitters that never did that? Or perhaps there was a reason he didn't see the majors, aside from one AB, for another 6 seasons? Sometimes it's ok to admit that one can dominate in A ball with a singular skill that is far beyond your competitions. Such as throwing a fastball.

You know what, don't even bother to respond to any of that. It's cool that you think Paul Abbott is the slider whisperer and that the guys that spend their work week scouting and talking to hundreds of scouts to get reviews of top players have useless opinions because they were once wrong about a player on your team. Totally understood. So ignore all that and answer one question for me:

If the Red Sox held the same opinion as you do, why isn't he up? The team is bleeding games from the pen, they're past the deadline to acquire significant help and there's 40 man slot open. So, why is he still in A+? Why hasn't he even been moved up to AA if he's so polished at this point, after these last 29 IP, let alone on a plane to Boston to help? Because it seems the only two reasonable answers to that are that A. he's not ready or B. the Red Sox FO is completely incompetent and you're smarter than they are.

Is it A or B?

You present a quite limited field of vision here. Is that a common problem?

C. They don't think he's ready mentally.

D. Despite the current need, they don't want to mess with his development as a starter (see The Joba Rules for a cautionary tale).

E. Partly C and Partly D

E'. Partly C, Partly D, Partly 40 man implications this winter offsetting probability of success/failure.

F. Specific to why not move him to Portland or Pawtucket, they're not going to the playoffs and Salem is. He can make up to 5 more starts for Salem before they have to make a decision, which will add importantly to building his innings total and give them more data on which to evaluate physical and mental readiness before making such an unconventional decision.

G. I'm wrong.

Tony Solaita a/k/a "the Samoan Mickey Mantle."

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Please make the case that A ball hitters are equivalent to MLB hitters.

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It should be straighforward to calculate a correlation or translation between A+ and MLB, at least for certain variables such as K-BB and ISO-allowed, similar to KATOH. I suspect it would be fairly strong, depending on the variables you used, or the KATOH forecast. My hunch is his ERA would project to be sub 3.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Reality check: the starts came in A ball and five starts mean nothing.

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Five starts and over 100 TBF is about where you see the spectrum of reliability. Give him another two starts and you'd have an alpha of somewhere approaching .7, which is good enough to make predictions about how he'll do in MLB, either as a starter or reliever, with a sub-3 ERA.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

If the Red Sox held the same opinion as you do, why isn't he up?

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They are waiting to get more data from the starts in A+? If he keeps up the way he has since Aug. 2, when he introduced the new slider, then they'll have enough reliability to call him up, based on that larger data set.

My hunch is, if the data set continues as it has been, they will call him up. You'd be very, very stupid not to. DDo is not stupid.

Plympton91 said:

G. I'm wrong.

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You said it so much more succinctly than I did.

so good so good so good said:

My hunch is, if the data set continues as it has been, they will call him up. You'd be very, very stupid not to. DDo is not stupid.

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Here's the thing: there;s much more involved than looking at a set of data. One needs to actually assess how it was arrived at. Scouting a box score or a stat line, especially for someone in the low minors, means very little in the grand scheme, especially as to how it would translate to the majors. MLEs are worth next to nothing, especially with such large jump.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Here's the thing: there;s much more involved than looking at a set of data. One needs to actually assess how it was arrived at. Scouting a box score or a stat line, especially for someone in the low minors, means very little in the grand scheme, especially as to how it would translate to the majors. MLEs are worth next to nothing, especially with such large jump.

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Bannister talked about Kopech's spin rate being very high, and his deceptive release point. I gather this is coming from pitchf/x data that the public does not have access to.

With pitchf/x data they would have an even higher confidence of how he compares to MLB pitchers, at least in those terms.

so good so good so good said:

It should be straighforward to calculate a correlation or translation between A+ and MLB, at least for certain variables such as K-BB and ISO-allowed, similar to KATOH. I suspect it would be fairly strong, depending on the variables you used, or the KATOH forecast. My hunch is his ERA would project to be sub 3.

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FWIW, Steamer's RoS MLB projection for him is for a 4.69 ERA and identical FIP with a 8.57 K/9 and 5.36 BB/9. That's improved from a projected ERA in the mid 5s (IIRC) over the past couple of weeks.

I read that as "his chances of succeeding in MLB are not nil by any means, but you shouldn't be expecting miracles (or a sub-3 ERA)"

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828680&position=P

NobodyInteresting said:

FWIW, Steamer's RoS MLB projection for him is for a 4.69 ERA and identical FIP with a 8.57 K/9 and 5.36 BB/9. That's improved from a projected ERA in the mid 5s (IIRC) over the past couple of weeks.

I read that as "his chances of succeeding in MLB are not nil by any means, but you shouldn't be expecting miracles (or a sub-3 ERA)"

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828680&position=P

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The data set I think the Sox would be looking at started on Aug. 2 when he introduced the new slider. I think that data set should project to be sub-3 ERA.

(Above, I answered a question specific to the Red Sox.)

Kopech will not be called up this year I'd b absolutely shocked if they did. He'll start next year at AA and is he dominates it isn't out of the question he could be available next year. There is no need to start burning options on him already. Too may pitchers get hurt to waste years of control on him already.

That said my roster predictions are almost always wrong.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Despite the glowing comments by his pitching coach, he doesn't have a secondary pitch that can get major leaguers out consistently. Even your quotes make the point that his slider is inconsistent still. Which is to say nothing of the fact that he's been effective using it against teenagers.

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I have no dog in this hunt, but this is not accurate. There are currently exactly two teenage position players (defined as birthday on/after 7/1/1996) in the Carolina League. The median age for the Carolina League in 2012 was 23, and it doesn't look like it's changed much--at a quick glance, most of the guys Kopech is pitching to were born between 1992 and 1995. They are roughly Andrew Benintendi's or even Mookie Betts' age, though obviously not as talented or they would have risen higher than high-A by this point.

Byrdbrain said:

Kopech will not be called up this year I'd b absolutely shocked if they did. He'll start next year at AA and is he dominates it isn't out of the question he could be available next year. There is no need to start burning options on him already. Too may pitchers get hurt to waste years of control on him already.

That said my roster predictions are almost always wrong.

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He wouldn't use an option this year if he ends the year on the MLB roster.

Next year's option would be used, if he's optioned back next year, but if he comes up next year and is optioned back, that option would be used anyway.

Yes I am aware but if he isn't ready or if he gets hurt then you don't need to burn the option at all while if you bring him up now you need to use an option every year.
In my opinion it is too much risk for the small chance that he is a significant upgrade.

Kelly, Clay and Taz(maybe) will be bullpen upgrades this year for what it's worth.

Savin Hillbilly said:

I have no dog in this hunt, but this is not accurate. There are currently exactly two teenage position players (defined as birthday on/after 7/1/1996) in the Carolina League. The median age for the Carolina League in 2012 was 23, and it doesn't look like it's changed much--at a quick glance, most of the guys Kopech is pitching to were born between 1992 and 1995. They are roughly Andrew Benintendi's or even Mookie Betts' age, though obviously not as talented or they would have risen higher than high-A by this point.

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Yes, already conceded.

Byrdbrain said:

Yes I am aware but if he isn't ready or if he gets hurt then you don't need to burn the option at all while if you bring him up now you need to use an option every year.
In my opinion it is too much risk for the small chance that he is a significant upgrade.

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100% this.

The Red Sox currently are not compelled to put Kopech on the 40-man roster until after the 2018 season when he is Rule 5 draft eligible. That gives him, after this season, a minimum of five years in which the Red Sox maintain full control of his development in the minor leagues. Calling him up this season would reduced that period to three years due to the need to use his options.

That is a huge difference when we're talking about the development of a 20-year-old prospective starting pitcher who at present has a huge fastball and little else major league ready in his repertoire. It's also a huge step to take for what could be at best a marginal improvement to the bullpen in September and more likely a move of no impact whatsoever.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

100% this.

The Red Sox currently are not compelled to put Kopech on the 40-man roster until after the 2018 season when he is Rule 5 draft eligible. That gives him, after this season, a minimum of five years in which the Red Sox maintain full control of his development in the minor leagues. Calling him up this season would reduced that period to three years due to the need to use his options.

That is a huge difference when we're talking about the development of a 20-year-old prospective starting pitcher who at present has a huge fastball and little else major league ready in his repertoire. It's also a huge step to take for what could be at best a marginal improvement to the bullpen in September and more likely a move of no impact whatsoever.

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Haven't we talked about this multiple times in the various threads lately? He only burns an option if he comes up and gets sent back down. If they bring him up and he finishes the year he doesn't burn an option, just like Owens last year, who will have two options left after this season. Once he's back down, an option isn't needed until/unless he is called up and subsequently sent back down. Once he goes back down you don't need to burn options to keep him there.

If you put him on the 40 man and then call him up(putting him on the 25 man) you don't burn an option this year. However now that he is on the 40 man roster you burn an option every year he isn't on the 25 man roster, so assuming he isn't going to be on the opening day roster next year an option will be burned.

From MLB.com:
A player does not get options until he is placed on his team's 40-man roster. That's why when a non-roster invitee to Spring Training gets sent to the Minor League side, he's "reassigned" and not optioned.

Once a player is put on the 40-man roster, the option countdown begins. A player is assigned three options as a rostered player. Each year, when a player who is on the roster gets sent to the Minor Leagues for a stint of more than 20 days, it counts as an option.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110329&content_id=17188016

Papelbon's Poutine said:

Haven't we talked about this multiple times in the various threads lately? He only burns an option if he comes up and gets sent back down. If they bring him up and he finishes the year he doesn't burn an option, just like Owens last year, who will have two options left after this season. Once he's back down, an option isn't needed until/unless he is called up and subsequently sent back down. Once he goes back down you don't need to burn options to keep him there.

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And in each of those instances, it has to be pointed out that a player does not have to spend a day on the big league roster to "burn" an option year. The only way a player does not "burn" an option year once he is put on the 40-man roster is if he spends the entire season on the 25-man MLB roster or on the MLB disabled list.

If he's on the 40-man roster, stashing Kopech in AA for all of 2017 will absolutely, without question, "burn" an option regardless of whether he is called up at all during 2017. Ditto for 2018 and 2019.

When a player on the 40-man roster is in the minor leagues, he is considered to be on optional assignment. THAT is where the term option comes from. Teams get three years in which they can put a player on optional assignment to the minors without risk of losing said player to waivers. When they use one of those years, it's burned.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

You said it so much more succinctly than I did.

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That's because it doesn't appear those words are in your vocabulary.

The other view is that many of the better pitchers, like Price, Porcello and Buchholz, have options that have never been used. When you spend a whole season in MLB, without being optioned back for more than 20 days, the option is not used.

Once there's five years of service time, remaining options can't be used without the player's consent.

This is why, with prodigious pitchers, options are often used very early on, to see what the value of the prodigy might be. It's well worth the risk of using the option, since it's the only way to find out if the pitcher is as prodigious as he looks on paper (or more recently, in his pitchf/x data).

If your analysis from this data is right and he's the prodigy you projected him to be, it's as if you've picked up $50 - 100M (in surplus value).

For a GM who discounts heavily for present value going into the post-season, it's worth the risk of using next year's option, which you're likely to use anyway, to test whether a prodigy like Kopech can improve on your team's biggest need in the post-season.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

And in each of those instances, it has to be pointed out that a player does not have to spend a day on the big league roster to "burn" an option year. The only way a player does not "burn" an option year once he is put on the 40-man roster is if he spends the entire season on the 25-man MLB roster or on the MLB disabled list.

If he's on the 40-man roster, stashing Kopech in AA for all of 2017 will absolutely, without question, "burn" an option regardless of whether he is called up at all during 2017. Ditto for 2018 and 2019.

When a player on the 40-man roster is in the minor leagues, he is considered to be on optional assignment. THAT is where the term option comes from. Teams get three years in which they can put a player on optional assignment to the minors without risk of losing said player to waivers. When they use one of those years, it's burned.

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Then my apologies, I missed that.

so good so good so good said:

The other view is that many of the better pitchers, like Price, Porcello and Buchholz, have options that have never been used. When you spend a whole season in MLB, without being optioned back for more than 20 days, the option is not used.

Once there's five years of service time, remaining options can't be used without the player's consent.

This is why, with prodigious pitchers, options are often used very early on, to see what the value of the prodigy might be. It's well worth the risk of using the option, since it's the only way to find out if the pitcher is as prodigious as he looks on paper (or more recently, in his pitchf/x data).

If your analysis from this data is right and he's the prodigy you projected him to be, it's as if you've picked up $50 - 100M (in surplus value).

For a GM who discounts heavily for present value going into the post-season, it's worth the risk of using next year's option, which you're likely to use anyway, to test whether a prodigy like Kopech can improve on your team's biggest need in the post-season.

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I hope you post more around here, your thought process and approach is sorely needed.

This was true, in pre-pitchf/x years. You could expect a player to follow a traditional path to callup like the one you're describing.

Now, there's more confidence in what we've learned from pitchf/x data over the last two years. I hear Bannister and Abbott talking about Kopech's pitchf/x data when they say he has a high spin rate, a deceptive release point, late life or sink on his FB, and the ability to spot his new 91 MPH "wipeout" slider to either side of the plate. They have also said he's developed a new change with movement at 89 MPH.

This is pitchf/x data for a starter with no need to wait for the traditional development path. If this really is his pitchf/x data, then next year, they would likely call him up a starter, because he would have better pitchf/x data than whoever else is around.

The kicker is, if this really is his pitchf/x data, then when they call him up right now, mid-September, it could be as a starter.

Any conspiracy theorists out there?

Me and some friends(and perhaps some of you guys) have been speculating as to why no Joe Kelly?

He's doing pretty damn good as a reliever in AAA. Well, not just good.
As a reliever in PAW - July, 4 games 0.00 ERA/1.2 WHIP. In Aug - 8 Games 0.90 ERA, 0.70 WHIP.

Could they be just letting him settle into his new and possibly permanent role as a reliever?
Sure, as they lose game after game letting the current relievers fail.
Are they saving Joe to be a "Magic Bullet" September savior?
Take us to promised land JOE!!!(Can i get an AMEN?!?)

Or, are they holding him back because they are just about to lose the third year of control on him? Hmmmmm....

Per Baseball reference, Joe Kelly started 2016 with 3 years, 101 days of service time.
In case folks aren't familiar, a full season of service time is 172 days. Time is counted as actual time on the active roster, not games played. Even though the Major league season will be longer than 172 days, a player cannot accrue more than 172 days of service time in a single season. Players accrue time while on the major league DL and while in the minors on rehab stints if they were hurt while on the major league active roster.

So Joe Kelly began this year with 3 years, 101 days of service time.
He was part of the active roster starting with the first game on April 4th in CLE
and on the active roster until June 2nd. That is 27 days service time for April, 31 days for May, and 2 Days for June. He was then called up on July 24th and sent down August 1st for another 9 days of service time.

Doing the math 27+31+2+9 = 69 days of additional service time. 101 + 69 =170 days
If Joe Kelly gets no more time in the Major leagues this year he will finish the year with 3 years and 170 days of service time which means, with no options left, he will be under control for 3 more years instead of 2.
5 years and 170 days does not get you to free agency. Close but no cigar, as they say.

Now, is this really happening? We'll know for sure in a few days. If they actually for some reason did this,
with such a glaring need for bullpen help, I'd bet he'd have a clear case to file a grievance.
And i know there are only 2 guys that could or would be sent down for Joe to have had a spot in the last few days. Ross Jr seems to have options and Hernandez does too if you wanted a short bench, although you could argue that Shaw's slide has earned him a tune-up in AAA for a week until rosters expand.

Food for thought.

No conspiracy, the answer is rather simple.

Joe Kelly will be up tomorrow when rosters expand. Right now Boston doesn't have anyone they can send down without exposing to waivers so the thought is the cost of potentially losing an Abad or Taz for nothing isn't worth having Kelly a day or two sooner.

Personally, I would have liked to see him up a week ago but given that is water under the bridge now the logical choice is to bring him up tomorrow. Probably put him on ice in Pawtucket today just to be careful and have him on a flight to OAK tonight.

j44thor said:

No conspiracy, the answer is rather simple.

Joe Kelly will be up tomorrow when rosters expand. Right now Boston doesn't have anyone they can send down without exposing to waivers so the thought is the cost of potentially losing an Abad or Taz for nothing isn't worth having Kelly a day or two sooner.

Personally, I would have liked to see him up a week ago but given that is water under the bridge now the logical choice is to bring him up tomorrow. Probably put him on ice in Pawtucket today just to be careful and have him on a flight to OAK tonight.

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Well, they do have a guy with options that they can send down without waivers (Barnes), but he's been, for the most part, one of their best relievers.

At this point, I think it's painfully obvious that all they are waiting for with Kelly is the change in calendar. No conspiracy theory needed.

“@bradfo: The way Farrell was talking sure sounds like Moncada will be coming up to play third base soon”

Looks like Moncada is coming up

Moncada
The Yoan Moncada Era seems to be on the immediate horizon.
During his pregame media briefing, John Farrell insinuated the Red Sox are strongly considering calling up the organization’s top prospect when the major league rosters expand.

“We’ve talked about Yoan, and not just as a pinch-runner,” Farrell said. “It’s an exciting young player. Extremely talented guy. There’s all positive reviews and evaluations of him. When that major league experience is going to initiate, time with tell that. But in terms of playing the position of third base, yes, that conversation has been had.”

The plan would be to play Moncada at third base, where he has been manning for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs since earlier this month. The amount of playing time the 21-year-old would get might initially be determined on matchups, with the switch-hitter having significant more success from the left side of the plate (.314 batting average) than the right (.171).

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More at the link

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/08/31/john-farrell-insinuates-yoan-moncada-will-be-playing-third-base-for-red-sox-soon/

soxhop411 said:

“@bradfo: The way Farrell was talking sure sounds like Moncada will be coming up to play third base soon”

Looks like Moncada is coming up




More at the link

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/08/31/john-farrell-insinuates-yoan-moncada-will-be-playing-third-base-for-red-sox-soon/

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Wow! Just the other day DD was hinting it wouldn't make sense to bring him up if he wasn't going to play. But I am assuming, from reading this piece, that they want the 'injection' at third after the sluggish results at the position recently.. Febles, in Portland, has obviously begun incorporating Butterfield's program to Yoan in his short time at third so that he will be somewhat familiar with some terminology/positioning, but nothing beats being on the field with the coach and the players. Exciting.

Bogaerts '13 redux. With Shaw in the role of Middlebrooks, minus the hot gf (as far as I know).

Good for Moncada to be able to spend some time on the same dugout as Big Papi, too, I'd think -- especially in the heat of a pennant race.

Is there still any way to get him on the postseason roster *IF* he plays well, or is the K-Rod "loophole" totally gone ( I seem to remember some changes to that rule)? If no, I would think it would make more sense to call him up a day early? He has some red flags and may not play well this time around, but a guy that talented seems like he could adjust quickly. It would be nice to have the postseason roster an option if he really does make a seamless transition from AA to the majors.

jmm57 said:

Is there still any way to get him on the postseason roster *IF* he plays well, or is the K-Rod "loophole" totally gone ( I seem to remember some changes to that rule)? If no, I would think it would make more sense to call him up a day early? He has some red flags and may not play well this time around, but a guy that talented seems like he could adjust quickly. It would be nice to have the postseason roster an option if he really does make a seamless transition from AA to the majors.

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Anyone in the system on before September 1 can be added to the postseason roster for anyone on the DL.

soxhop411 said:

“@bradfo: The way Farrell was talking sure sounds like Moncada will be coming up to play third base soon”

Looks like Moncada is coming up




More at the link

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/08/31/john-farrell-insinuates-yoan-moncada-will-be-playing-third-base-for-red-sox-soon/

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Call him up tonight. I'm done watching Shaw and Hill

Since May 17, Shaw is hitting a robust .205/.270/.355/.625.

Can Moncada (or.....could Panda) do any worse?

jmm57 said:

Is there still any way to get him on the postseason roster *IF* he plays well, or is the K-Rod "loophole" totally gone ( I seem to remember some changes to that rule)? If no, I would think it would make more sense to call him up a day early? He has some red flags and may not play well this time around, but a guy that talented seems like he could adjust quickly. It would be nice to have the postseason roster an option if he really does make a seamless transition from AA to the majors.

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Moncada or any minor league position player (as of midnight Aug 31) can be substituted for any position player on the DL, who has served his regular season 60 days. Technically, you need the approval of the commissioner just to be sure it's legitimate.

I'll preface this by saying, I expect nothing because he's been awful in 24 MLB innings - but Noe Ramirez has had another very good year in the minors.
In 3+ AA/AAA seasons over 180 innings (admittedly age 24-26), he has a k rate of 8.9/9 a .4 HR/9 and a ratio around 1.1 with an ERA around 2.15.

He's a complete afterthought, but it is really hard to see how a guy with his k rate who keeps the ball in the park has failed so spectacularly so far.
He'll be up throwing low leverage, but maybe there is a low percentage chance he contributes..

Rasputin said:

Day game. Going on now, in fact.

I am somewhat surprised to see that they're going to have him play third, but it's pretty exciting.

Our potential playoff roster would include Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Bogaerts, Moncada, Barnes, and Vazquez.

Gotta wear shades, as they say.

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Right. But what I'm saying is that you can call him up tonight before the rosters expand. They have until 11:59 on him I believe. But yeah they need a better option than Shaw. At this point Panda has his job back next year...

Why would they do that? Are you still hung up on playoff eligibility even though you've been told it isn't an issue.

Rasputin said:

In no way did I intend to suggest it was the only way it could happen. People take other routes fairly regularly, but it's very uncommon to have someone come up before they show success at AA/



They put Buchholz in the bullpen, but they're going to shove someone else out of the rotation for Kopech?

There is zero chance this happens.

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You are right, of course, that it has been uncommon in the past.

But in the past we didn't have the lessons of pitchf/x data available. It should become more common now, because we have a way to measure the prodigy level of the player, independent of experience or ml level, with velocity, spin rate, release point, movement and location, and even compare that to other data for exit velocity and launch angle.

Erod may lose the fourth/fifth starter spot with another outing like the last one. Buchholz has been much better but he is not a lock to take that spot. There's a non-zero chance they will need an improvement on their fourth starter for the post-season.

Byrdbrain said:

Why would they do that? Are you still hung up on playoff eligibility even though you've been told it isn't an issue.

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He doesn't read what other people post

so good so good so good said:

You are right, of course, that it has been uncommon in the past.

But in the past we didn't have the lessons of pitchf/x data available. It should become more common now, because we have a way to measure the prodigy level of the player, independent of experience or ml level, with velocity, spin rate, release point, movement and location, and even compare that to other data for exit velocity and launch angle.

Erod may lose the fourth starter spot with another outing like the last one. Buchholz has been much better but he is not a lock to take that spot. So there's a non-zero chance they will need an improvement on their fourth starter for the post-season.

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But there is a zero chance the person who takes that spot will be Kopech and I would guess only a slightly above zero chance that Kopech gets a chance in the bullpen. If they want four starters and ERod isn't one of them they will use Price, Porcello, Wright and Pomeranz.
Even if the PitchF/X shows Kopech could be acceptable in MLB these guys aren't robots, no one is going to risk their job by bringing a guy up from A+ to start in the playoffs.