The sixers and building a winner

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Drocca

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It's absolutely real. I made Simmons basically a much-watch because his passing is really, really fun. But he gave no shits on the other end of the court.
 

LondonSox

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Agreed. It's a concern. But I'd rather be concerned about the mental than the physical. I would like to see it though, esp as he seems very competitive in everything else, bit odd to thing he would slack off in this area, but it is a concern.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Agreed. It's a concern. But I'd rather be concerned about the mental than the physical. I would like to see it though, esp as he seems very competitive in everything else, bit odd to thing he would slack off in this area, but it is a concern.
Absolutely. The upside is all in a players physical and how much growth he has in other improveable areas of his game. He doesn't have to be a lockdown defender to be an elite player.....he only has to be passable.
 

LondonSox

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We've seen stars before be pretty eh and then turn it on when they felt like it. My hope is he actually cares and is competitive and the likes of Embiid and Saric and Noel (who all appear as high effort high character guys and work hard) push him into it.

I think he'll get pissed off being embarrassed. But if he's guarding a bad player... yeah he could well loaf. I wouldn't be shocked to see him play defense to the level of his guy. On lebron? max effort. On some scrub, eh. Anyway we shall see. He's making the sixers a fun watch. Already.
 

Cellar-Door

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Simmons has a bit of Harden syndrome on D for sure. The question is going to be whether he also has the ability to turn it on. Harden did it for one year when he got mocked on twitter all year then spent the summer with the national team and got to working like they did. He backslid after a year of being lazy all summer, coming in out of shape and the team being dysfunctional (and his coach getting fired). Those guys often CAN defend, but getting them to do it consistently is based on their personalities, and getting a coach/teammates that can effectively pressure them into making the effort.

Edit- personally I think he'll always be a not great effort defender, he never really showed that he cares about getting embarrassed at the college level.
 

Drocca

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We've seen stars before be pretty eh and then turn it on when they felt like it. My hope is he actually cares and is competitive and the likes of Embiid and Saric and Noel (who all appear as high effort high character guys and work hard) push him into it.

I think he'll get pissed off being embarrassed. But if he's guarding a bad player... yeah he could well loaf. I wouldn't be shocked to see him play defense to the level of his guy. On lebron? max effort. On some scrub, eh. Anyway we shall see. He's making the sixers a fun watch. Already.
It's just a guess, but I think he will turn it on. He needs coaching, of course. But his elite athleticism, and the chip on the shoulder you allude to, make me think he turns into an above average defender and potentially a very, very good one.

I mean, he's really good at basketball.
 

Drocca

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Simmons has a bit of Harden syndrome on D for sure. The question is going to be whether he also has the ability to turn it on. Harden did it for one year when he got mocked on twitter all year then spent the summer with the national team and got to working like they did. He backslid after a year of being lazy all summer, coming in out of shape and the team being dysfunctional (and his coach getting fired). Those guys often CAN defend, but getting them to do it consistently is based on their personalities, and getting a coach/teammates that can effectively pressure them into making the effort.

Edit- personally I think he'll always be a not great effort defender, he never really showed that he cares about getting embarrassed at the college level.
My counter would be that he had one goal in college - don't get hurt.
 

HomeRunBaker

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We've seen stars before be pretty eh and then turn it on when they felt like it. My hope is he actually cares and is competitive and the likes of Embiid and Saric and Noel (who all appear as high effort high character guys and work hard) push him into it.

I think he'll get pissed off being embarrassed. But if he's guarding a bad player... yeah he could well loaf. I wouldn't be shocked to see him play defense to the level of his guy. On lebron? max effort. On some scrub, eh. Anyway we shall see. He's making the sixers a fun watch. Already.
Simmons seems to be the type of player where you need a legit defensive stopper at the wing to avoid having him matched up against the LeBrons and Durant's of today and the next generation. Someone like a Bruce Bowen/Trenton Hassell type defensivley who develops are a spot-up 3-point shooter as Bowen did......unlike Hassell.

Long term I don't like the fit with Saric at the other forward spot but these are the early stages so championship level fit isn't important until way down the road. I look for Colangelo to look to develop this player through the system on the cheap.
 

LondonSox

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It's just nice to have real potential and the resultant problems to talk about again!
But yes there's one outcome where he's very good defensively but even then you don't really want him on the top guy all the time. Maybe in spurts.

I agree re Saric. Saric tries so hard on d but he's not got the talent to be great defensively. Saric is an interesting one. A lineup with Simmons could be fun as another very good passing big man, could be really fun. But yeah you would need Simmons to show defensively and either Embiid to work out or Noel cover them.
And you'd need some good defensive guards. Or Saric could point forward a second unit. So many questions. What to do with Saric, how will he be in the NBA is the shooting really legit? (exciting if so) can he stay out of foul trouble? Just how bad will the d be in nba?
How does Okafor fit all this?
What is Embiid going to do? If healthy Embiid and Simmons.... I mean FUN.

We don't know much. But it's likely to be fun after the last 3 years
 

LondonSox

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Saric has impressed in the Olympic qualifying games, and was named mvp. He also confirmed he's heading to the US to sign with the sixers before he goes to Rio.

I was impressed, Vs Greece he was defending giannis a lot and did well, he also played great and had one coast to coast which was very impressive.

I think it's likely that they are adding 4 good rookies, plus Bayless Rodriguez and Henderson. That's seven guys from what maybe... 3? (Noel, Okafor and Covington maybe grant.)

The team will still be bad, but this kind of talent addition even while stashing korkmaz. YAY!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Saric has impressed in the Olympic qualifying games, and was named mvp. He also confirmed he's heading to the US to sign with the sixers before he goes to Rio.

I was impressed, Vs Greece he was defending giannis a lot and did well, he also played great and had one coast to coast which was very impressive.

I think it's likely that they are adding 4 good rookies, plus Bayless Rodriguez and Henderson. That's seven guys from what maybe... 3? (Noel, Okafor and Covington maybe grant.)

The team will still be bad, but this kind of talent addition even while stashing korkmaz. YAY!
I like the veteran stabilizing acquisitions. Still need a PG and I'd like to see a veteran big for Embiid, Noel/Okafor, etc to pick up nuances from without having to commit long term. Someone like a Brandon Bass is what I'm thinking.
 

LondonSox

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Even in Summer League, Ben Simmons refuses to even attempt jumpers.
Yeah after the game brown was basically saying he can shoot but he's not really needed to and he's less confident than other areas but the message is shoot, miss is fine. Improve.
Which is clearly the right move. They're going to still be bad this year. Don't worry about it just practice and improve. We shall see.
The form doesn't look brutal to me. I don't know if more knowledgeable shot analyzers out there have an opinion yet?
 

Bob420

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I don't think he will ever be a good shooter. He brings the ball across his body a little, his elbow is out and shoulders aren't square. His body is always moving or sliding. It is actually pretty common for lefties. He is more comfortable finishing with his right hand at the basket. Funny thing is when he gets in the lane, fakes and spins to his right, he hits short jumpers and his form and touch are good with his right hand. His scoring should pick up once he starts taking some of the easy shots he gives up for the pass and stops taking the difficult shots.

He really only needs to develop a show me Magic set shot. It will be tough because he isn't comfortable when he isn't moving. The sixers have plenty of time to work on it but I am surprised they aren't forcing him to take X amount of shots from 15 feet and out in the summer league. Especially after hearing the in game interview from Brown.

The guy has been the best at every level and is definitely afraid to get away from his comfort level and fail
 

LondonSox

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Yeah agreed I'm sure they will. I mean it's clear the goal of the team this year is development. You need to know where you are at before year end and that includes letting Simmons try and fail as needed.
I think he's potentially a 6'10 Jason Kidd. And Kidd was a bad shooter until late in his career. If I remember correctly. But was pretty damn useful.

Anyway it's too exciting to just say lets see. The sixers have been waiting a long time to get excited. I actually was damn impressed by saric defense in the qualifiers. He has the motor and the attitude so just needs to show he can. Given the shooting improvement if he can he's a really exciting addition too.

Yay. Exciting. It's hard. You don't realise how long it's been since the sixers were exciting. We are excepting them to be in the mix for a top 3 pick and we are still pants wettingly excited
 

Bob420

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I am a sixers fan going back to the early 80s and I am definitely excited. That was my opinion and it wasn't meant to be negative. Just an honest opinion. He will be able to impact the game in so many ways even with a below average outside shot. But at this point he has no outside shot. He is too good to not at least develop a keep the D honest outside shot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not a Sixers fan yet still excited to see how quickly this teams personnel evolves over these next couple seasons.

There is no rush with Simmons and the worst thing you can do to a young player is force something on them until they are ready for it. Let him continue playing the game that earned him the #1 pick in the draft and make adjustments based on how defenses adapt to him. In time he'll figure it out and even hit a mid-range face up jumper in his first game. He'll be fine.
 

jon abbey

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What he should be upset about is that evidently no one especially wants him. "His people", too funny.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ginobili reportedly had a 2/$30m offer on the table from Colangelo forcing the Spurs to increase their original $5m offer to $14m or risk losing him to the Sixers. Good job by Manu's agents to work that deal from Philly as leverage......I can't imagine he wanted to end his career in a situation like this.
 

BigSoxFan

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Saric officially signs. Will definitely be some moves made but Sixers really aren't in a rush to do anything. Brown will certainly have his hands full keeping all these guys happy.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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trump isn't the only brand with his own winery. You can soon own your very own bottle of 76ers wine. http://www.eater.com/2016/7/20/12240554/philadelphia-76ers-wine

"The franchise is unveiling a series of wines meant to pay tribute to the good years when the Sixers actually won trophies, reports Sports Illustrated. The first to be released, a red blend, honors the Philadelphia team that claimed the NBA championship in 1983. The "Banner Series," which will include two more blends that honor championships in 1967 and 1955, is being produced in partnership with Pennsylvania's Chaddsford Winery.

The Sixers' debut wine offers notes of raspberry, black cherry, black pepper, and oak, according to Chaddsford, and it apparently pairs well with beef, "chips snacks," pizza, and pasta. If you're a Philadelphia basketball fan who wants to celebrate the good times while drowning your current sorrows, this wine is being sold for $24.99 a bottle. Ten percent of the proceeds go to the Sixers Youth Foundation, a non-profit that's "committed to coaching and mentoring young people in Philadelphia and Camden to be the next generation of leaders and innovators."

What they don't say is some of the money will be invested to make sure they have enough money to pay Ben Simmons when his rookie deal is up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They should create "The Process Series" line. Who wouldn't like a fine glass of Covington with their meal?
 

cheech13

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Sam Hinkie wine would be a box of mismatched grapes that they tell you will be good in 5-10 years.
 
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LondonSox

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Guess that shows that the Sixers really had no interest. I don't like him but that contract seems a steal, esp as it might actually motivate him.
He was chirping about getting a MAX from the Sixers. Or a 1Y 2.9m deal whichever.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Building off what II posts immediately above, here are the videos that went with the series of tweets. Very interesting read and watch.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/7/29/12317906/okafor-defense-video-analysis

I never really was thrilled with the rumors on possibly trading for Okafur. Now, after this, I am actually against it.
Why does Okafor continue to be crucified for being a raw defensive player in a rookie season he entered at the age of 19? I don't understand why he's viewed to some as a finished product when at his age he woudn't have seen ANY minutes last year and only did due to his offensive game.
 

LondonSox

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Why does Okafor continue to be crucified for being a raw defensive player in a rookie season he entered at the age of 19? I don't understand why he's viewed to some as a finished product when at his age he woudn't have seen ANY minutes last year and only did due to his offensive game.
I think because the smarter analytic people are increasingly focused on the analysis that the more important side of a centre's play is the defensive side. So he's getting killed for his liabilities there and down playing his offensive skills.
For me he's just a bad fit on the Sixers, the idea he's some kind of awful player seems a bit much, but I do get the sense that better watchers of basketball (I'm learning) are getting better at understanding how to look at and evaluate defence and the impact.
One way players are constantly getting exposed in the new NBA. Got no shot, sag. Got no ability to drive, get in close. Got a vulnerability to switches, run them through multiple. Can't defend the pick and roll, go to it until they sub you.
Okafor, right now, is a true one way player. But as you say he's 19, and the level of that one side is extremely high for the age. The requirement of improvement on the other to be a good player is lower. If he's just blah defensively he's a good player. If he could be a tick above average a very good one.

That said people (other than Orlando) aren't building their teams this way. For the sixers he's too slow too. They have a team of transition runners. Simmons, Saric in particular are players who can grab the board and take off. Rodriguez is good there too. Noel and potentially Embiid can play this way. As can all the new signings and Luwawu. Okafor needs to improve fitness and motor to even ahve a chance. Right now if he runs he takes off time defensively to recover.

So I think Okafor is a bit undervalued, but just isn't a great fit for the sixers roster. If they can get a sensible deal - even if it's lower value than they'd like, I think they might take it. I'm a bit surprised no one is willing to buy low on the kid. Most anyone would have snapped him up in the draft a year ago if he slipped, and he did basically exactly what we thought he would last year. Suggests the league REALLY has moved on to modern NBA, analytics and there are few old school team builders.

If no one wants to offer anything sensible I think the Sixers have to keep him and see if they can get him to show improvement in the weak areas. Use him as a change of pace, second unit focal point. See if there's more interest towards the trade deadline. In the first half of the season with Embiid on minute limits etc there's probably enough to go around. Let's you see if Embiid is healthy, if Okafor can improve/ raise value. Downside is developmental, and that's likely later than earlier in the season and goes away more if anyone gets hurt. He's also CHEAP in the new agreement with 3 years of cheap left.

A lot of sixers fans want to seemingly borderline cut him.
I got to think he'd be potentially good next to a KAT. A rim protector who can spread the floor on offence. Rubio isn't really a fit, but if they love Dunn that could be a move. Again one that might work better at the deadline. I'm mildly surprised they couldn't figure something out with Minny for Dunn at draft time.
 

bowiac

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London, the issue with this analysis is that many (most) analytics people also think Okafor is bad on offense. That's why no Dunn deal was possible, and that's why nobody wants to "buy low". They just don't grant the premise that he's a one-way player. He may well be a zero-way player unless he learns to pass much better. You may disagree, and that's fine: that's why they play the games. But that's where the Okafor detractors are coming from. Why buy low when you don't think the guy is good on either end?

Context makes it hard to be sure, and he's young, so I wouldn't be opposed to the Celtics acquiring him for a proverbial bag of balls, but I wouldn't give up anything resembling a real asset for him, let along a high pick.
 

LondonSox

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I agree the passing was bad. But he improved drastically in efficiency and fg% when they had a point guard.
I think he's being a better passer out of the double team from a good offensive player. Bizarrely he showed this in college. Link below says he was 6th ranked Centre for passing out of the post at college. So it wasn't an expected weakness.

The offense part of the link above, only the he's crap defensively part was linked, suggests he looks fine offensively. I think this he's bad offensively claim is not backed up by any good analysis. At least that I've seen. Esp with a nba point guard on his team. Defense. Yup. Note especially the the before and after ish part.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2016/7/28/12310140/jahlil-okafor-offensive-video-analysis-sixers

47% to 60% fg% before and after ish...

As you say that's why they play. But I'm open to arguments why he's bad offensively. I don't see it. Passing issues yes, but reasons for optimism. Boards and defense yeah bad no argument. Also no argument this matters a lot. But bad offensively...
 

bowiac

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As you say that's why they play. But I'm open to arguments why he's bad offensively. I don't see it. Passing issues yes, but reasons for optimism. Boards and defense yeah bad no argument. Also no argument this matters a lot. But bad offensively...
I'm loathe to just cite to plus/minus metrics, especially in a context as quirky as Okafor's, but given they actually do work quite well (i.e., you can pretty easily build a model to beat Vegas over/unders using them), I think they serve as a pretty strong null hypothesis. Okafor's are awful on offense - his offensive RPM is -3.72, which is far below replacement level. His oPT-PM (plus minus blended with SportVU data) is a little kinder, at -1.7, but that's still below replacement level. His oBPM, which is actually just a box-score metric is -2.6, which again, is far below replacement level.

These are three distinct data sources which all see Okafor as an offensive black hole as well as a defensive one. RPM and PT-PM are both adjusted for teammate quality, BPM is not. And it's not like it was just impossible to post good numbers on the Sixers last year. His numbers were by far the worst on the team. And these metrics have generally recognized guys who carry a heavy offensive load on terrible teams. They just universally hate Okafor however, even on the offensive side of the ball.

No "all-in-one" metric is perfect, but as a starting point, it should probably make you question your convictions that he's a plus offensive piece. You may not think that's right, and it may not be, but I'd bet that goes a long way to explaining why there's a "surprisingly" small market for him. Your mileage may vary of course.
 

luckiestman

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I'm loathe to just cite to plus/minus metrics, especially in a context as quirky as Okafor's, but given they actually do work quite well (i.e., you can pretty easily build a model to beat Vegas over/unders using them), I think they serve as a pretty strong null hypothesis. Okafor's are awful on offense - his offensive RPM is -3.72, which is far below replacement level. His oPT-PM (plus minus blended with SportVU data) is a little kinder, at -1.7, but that's still below replacement level. His oBPM, which is actually just a box-score metric is -2.6, which again, is far below replacement level.

These are three distinct data sources which all see Okafor as an offensive black hole as well as a defensive one. RPM and PT-PM are both adjusted for teammate quality, BPM is not. And it's not like it was just impossible to post good numbers on the Sixers last year. His numbers were by far the worst on the team. And these metrics have generally recognized guys who carry a heavy offensive load on terrible teams. They just universally hate Okafor however, even on the offensive side of the ball.

No "all-in-one" metric is perfect, but as a starting point, it should probably make you question your convictions that he's a plus offensive piece. You may not think that's right, and it may not be, but I'd bet that goes a long way to explaining why there's a "surprisingly" small market for him. Your mileage may vary of course.
Speaking of this, do you now have 2years of data showing your model. vs Vegas? If do, can you bump that thread?
 

LondonSox

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I'm loathe to just cite to plus/minus metrics, especially in a context as quirky as Okafor's, but given they actually do work quite well (i.e., you can pretty easily build a model to beat Vegas over/unders using them), I think they serve as a pretty strong null hypothesis. Okafor's are awful on offense - his offensive RPM is -3.72, which is far below replacement level. His oPT-PM (plus minus blended with SportVU data) is a little kinder, at -1.7, but that's still below replacement level. His oBPM, which is actually just a box-score metric is -2.6, which again, is far below replacement level.

These are three distinct data sources which all see Okafor as an offensive black hole as well as a defensive one. RPM and PT-PM are both adjusted for teammate quality, BPM is not. And it's not like it was just impossible to post good numbers on the Sixers last year. His numbers were by far the worst on the team. And these metrics have generally recognized guys who carry a heavy offensive load on terrible teams. They just universally hate Okafor however, even on the offensive side of the ball.

No "all-in-one" metric is perfect, but as a starting point, it should probably make you question your convictions that he's a plus offensive piece. You may not think that's right, and it may not be, but I'd bet that goes a long way to explaining why there's a "surprisingly" small market for him. Your mileage may vary of course.
I wonder what this makes of the drastic improvement post Ish signing? A 13% improvement is pretty drastic in FG%. Is it possible to compair.
I do agree Okafor pre Ish was not great. However, I think the data suggests he was solid esp at 19, post having a PG of any kind.

If that's incorrect I'll back off.
 

bowiac

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Ish and Okafor played 432 minutes together, and were outscored by 13.1 points per 100 possesions during that time. This compares to the 1184 minutes Ish Smith played without Okafor for the Sixers, during which time the team was outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. They were about 4.5 points worse with Okafor on the court than without him, even after Smith joined the team.
 

LondonSox

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Ish and Okafor played 432 minutes together, and were outscored by 13.1 points per 100 possesions during that time. This compares to the 1184 minutes Ish Smith played without Okafor for the Sixers, during which time the team was outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. They were about 4.5 points worse with Okafor on the court than without him, even after Smith joined the team.
Sure but we agree he's a liability defensively. So that doesn't mean he was an offensive one.
I'm not arguing that's he's a good player now dude. I totally agree he's horrible defensively.
 

LondonSox

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We are sure Hinkie isn't still running the team right?

How colangelo got two seconds for eating 3mm and kendal Marshall.... When they are well below the floor! Nice work.
 

chilidawg

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Ish and Okafor played 432 minutes together, and were outscored by 13.1 points per 100 possesions during that time. This compares to the 1184 minutes Ish Smith played without Okafor for the Sixers, during which time the team was outscored by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. They were about 4.5 points worse with Okafor on the court than without him, even after Smith joined the team.
I have no argument with the stats that say okafor was a bad player last year, but isn't the real question what do you think he'll be in another year or two? I have no insight, but I'd like to know what people with a deeper understanding of him and his game think.
 

oumbi

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Chilidawg, that is a good question and no one, I mean no one, can predict his future with great accuracy. However, earlier in this thread some posters raised intelligent and insightful comments about Okafur's future and the areas in which we can, and cannot, expect improvement. You may want to look at earlier parts of this thread.
 
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