How Good Are The Sox Now?

chrisfont9

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True. But, while I realize it's an eyeball test, there's just something about the way Seattle is winning games that makes me think they'll be around at the end.
I gather you were watching last night? That was pretty exciting. I was out with my wife and swore not to pay attention to the tv at the bar, but couldn't resist when Zunino went deep. I've been watching them a fair amount and it's clear that the bullpen nightmare was really holding them back. Now with Diaz out there the atmosphere is totally different. Paxton comes back any moment now. The offense is a bit feast-or-famine but if the rotation gets hot and the bullpen calm down (Zych is back today), they will be strong WC contenders.

Adding, it would be so great to see them eliminate the Orioles. I certainly don't wish Tillman ill health, but that sounds pretty ominous for a team that was already fading. And of course [insert hatred of Showalter].
 

BaseballJones

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Encouraging signs on the pitching front...

- Price: Last 6 starts: 42.0 ip (7.0 per game), 2.36 era, 1.07 whip. Season era down to 4.00.

- Pomeranz: Last 4 starts: 24.0 ip, 2.25 era, 1.17 whip

- Buchholz: Last 8 games (most in relief): 2.41 era, 0.86 whip

- Porcello: Last 5 games: 39.0 ip (7.2 per start), 2.08 era, 0.69 whip. CYA contender.

And Wright seems to be on the mend. The starting pitching has been very, very solid lately.
 

Rasputin

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At this point, I think it's safe to say nobody is going to want to play the Sox. Good starting pitching, great offense.

If they slot Buchholz in the 8th inning and Barnes in the 7th, that might settle things down in the bullpen and maybe this team emerges as the next in the AL.
 

Sampo Gida

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Since Bannister was announced to be joining the pitching coaching staff the teams ERA has been 3.56 coming into tonights game and that's almost a full run lower than it's ERA of 4.52 at the time. Coincidence?
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe. But they did say one interesting thing about Clay last night at the start of the game. They said that he overthinks out there, trying to set up hitters for their second and even third at bats of the game. That what they've been talking a lot about - what being a reliever has helped him with - is just to go after guys and trust his stuff and not worry about future at bats.

Obviously as a one or two inning reliever you're not remotely concerned about setting a hitter up for his third at bat several innings down the road.

So he's throwing with more conviction, trusting that he's just a good pitcher who has the arsenal to get guys out, period.

Now I don't know how much of that is true, but it's an interesting point if it is. Whatever has happened with Clay sure seems to be working. Of course, maybe he's just getting better results over a small sample size too, who knows.

But maybe, just maybe, they've hit on an approach with him that has clicked.
 

jimbobim

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One of the issues I think with this team is it suffers in comparison to the last playoff bound Red Sox squad. That team won 97 games and beat a Cardinals team in the WS that everyone in pundit land adored.

This Red Sox is a good at least offensively elite team with a nice blend of vets, improbable years, and a MVP candidate in Betts or 2 if you are inclined to what Ortiz is doing. The pitching has been dominating this month. Maybe there will be some regression but Price and Buch did start off brutally.

If playoff X 2013 plate discipline/eye shows up watch out. Tor is a bear. Cle's offense still shakey and Tex has an imposing lineup with 2 studs at top of staff.

I'm elated to have late august/september baseball be meaningful again. Yeah the pen is iffy and the 7th and 8th with Farrell are going to be a tightrope. Bring it. Kimbrel 90 percent of the time is unhittable.

I really really want Ortiz to walk off blocking Theo's Cub dream season.
 

paulb0t

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Since Bannister was announced to be joining the pitching coaching staff the teams ERA has been 3.56 coming into tonights game and that's almost a full run lower than it's ERA of 4.52 at the time. Coincidence?
I figured it was really just Sandy Leon calling pitches behind the plate that made the difference. Not really, but the way his season is going, why not?

I just hope that whatever positive contribution Bannister is making to the staff, he starts working on the bullpen next.

Bottom line for me – this team still has a lot of question marks to make a deep run. The starting pitching has sorted itself out the last month+, but that's been combined with a regression/downtick on guys like Xander and JBJ. Then again, I didn't think we had much of a chance in 2013, either.
 

pokey_reese

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From today's Frangraphs Chat:

12:35
Sleeper Star: Playoff Odds Question: The Red Sox and Blue Jays are tied for the AL East lead, with the Red Sox projected to finish with 1.1 more wins on the season. Obviously a lot of luck and uncertainty in there, but that’s what the odds are… Despite that uncertainty, and with the Indians and Rangers each expected to win their respective divisions by 5+ Games, and with the Indians projected to finish as the AL’s #1 seed, the Red Sox have the best projected World Series odds of any team in the American League… What gives?

12:35
Dave Cameron: Team quality matters in the postseason too, and our projections think BOS is the best team in the AL by a decent margin.
 

BestGameEvah

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Zososoxfan

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One of the issues I think with this team is it suffers in comparison to the last playoff bound Red Sox squad. That team won 97 games and beat a Cardinals team in the WS that everyone in pundit land adored.

This Red Sox is a good at least offensively elite team with a nice blend of vets, improbable years, and a MVP candidate in Betts or 2 if you are inclined to what Ortiz is doing. The pitching has been dominating this month. Maybe there will be some regression but Price and Buch did start off brutally.

If playoff X 2013 plate discipline/eye shows up watch out. Tor is a bear. Cle's offense still shakey and Tex has an imposing lineup with 2 studs at top of staff.

I'm elated to have late august/september baseball be meaningful again. Yeah the pen is iffy and the 7th and 8th with Farrell are going to be a tightrope. Bring it. Kimbrel 90 percent of the time is unhittable.

I really really want Ortiz to walk off blocking Theo's Cub dream season.
I can't find pitches faced/AB or helpful game logs, but yesterday X battled back from at least one 0-2 count to run it full (and IIRC had at least one other full count) and had 2 BB. My memory tells me that he's had some good ABs recently, but just can't get good wood on mistake pitches lately. I'm sure he and the Sox would both like to see his average P/AB number get above 4 again (at 3.93 for this year). Since the ASG, his OBP is .315 and he's slugging .393, which are both below league average for SS (.319/.410).
 

dynomite

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One of the issues I think with this team is it suffers in comparison to the last playoff bound Red Sox squad. That team won 97 games and beat a Cardinals team in the WS that everyone in pundit land adored.
Well any comparison to a team that won the World Series is going to be a little unfair, especially in hindsight.

I will say that the 2013 team was notably consistent, winning 15-18 games every month, having an almost identical winning percentage in the 1st and 2nd halves of the season, never losing more than 3 games in a row, and so on.

The 2016 version, by comparison, has already had a terrible month (10-16 in June) and might be in the midst of their best month (14-8 so far in August).

All in all, the story of this year's team is yet to be written, and will obviously depend to a great deal on their performance from here on out.

But this I agree with wholeheartedly:

I'm elated to have late august/september baseball be meaningful again
 
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tims4wins

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I think I may have said this elsewhere - gamethread perhaps - but in a way this season reminds me of 2004. Not so much in terms of the roster composition, obviously that is different, and of course the story is quite different. But in terms of performance relative to expectations, and the rollercoaster of the season.

The 2004 team was 31-19 though 50 games, then 62 games later they were still only 12 games over at 62-50 (and even dipped to only 6 games over at one point during that stretch). However as we all remember, after scuffling for a week or so post-Nomar trade (5-5 start to August), that team finished 38-14 in its last 52 to get to 98 wins.

This year's team got off to a similar good start - 31-20 through 51 games - and sat at 61-52 on August 12, for a 30-32 62 game stretch, at almost the exact same point in the season as the 2004 team (coincidentally they also dipped to only 6 games over at one point). Since then they are 10-2. Will they win at the same pace as the 2004 team to close the season (which would equate to winning 36 of their last 49, for 97 wins)? Doubtful. But the pattern has been eerily similar.
 

Maximus

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In theory they would move Buchholz and/or Pomeranz to the pen in the postseason
That will definitely help but I think they still need another power arm on the backend that Pomeranz and Clay are not.
 

Rasputin

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They desperately need to make a waiver trade for a late inning reliever. They are at least 1 arm short back there.
I'm not sure that's actually the case.

In the postseason, one of the starters is going to move to the pen. I suspect that's Wright, but it doesn't matter much.

If Buch takes the 8th inning, it means Barnes and Ziegler can be matched up in the 6th and 7th. That's not a shutdown bullpen, but it does look perfectly serviceable.

And with Wright added to it in the post season, it's going to be more than serviceable.
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm not sure that's actually the case.

In the postseason, one of the starters is going to move to the pen. I suspect that's Wright, but it doesn't matter much.

If Buch takes the 8th inning, it means Barnes and Ziegler can be matched up in the 6th and 7th. That's not a shutdown bullpen, but it does look perfectly serviceable.

And with Wright added to it in the post season, it's going to be more than serviceable.
They need the late-inning reliever to get to the postseason IMO.
 

Rasputin

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They need the late-inning reliever to get to the postseason IMO.
Have you been paying attention lately?

The team is 10-2 over the last twelve even though two starters have missed a total of three games. All this team has to do is win one more game than a Toronto team that just sent out its best pitcher so his arm doesn't fall off.
 

Bergs

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Have you been paying attention lately?

The team is 10-2 over the last twelve even though two starters have missed a total of three games. All this team has to do is win one more game than a Toronto team that just sent out its best pitcher so his arm doesn't fall off.
I don't think this post puts enough weight on the fact that we are very clearly DOOMED.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They need the late-inning reliever to get to the postseason IMO.
I guess then the question becomes where does this reliever come from if not internally? It's easy to say they should go out and find one on the waiver trade market, but given their position in the standings, unless the right guy has already cleared waivers, I have a hard time seeing the ideal candidate getting to Boston at all.

As hard as I expect DD is going to be looking, I think the expectation should be that any further help for this team has to come from within the organization.
 

RedOctober3829

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Have you been paying attention lately?

The team is 10-2 over the last twelve even though two starters have missed a total of three games. All this team has to do is win one more game than a Toronto team that just sent out its best pitcher so his arm doesn't fall off.
Have you been paying attention to the amount of games they've blown in the bullpen lately? I know you're the extreme optimist to the point where you disregard anything negative that's going on with this team. Even you have to acknowledge the bullpen is an issue especially against the top teams in the league.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Have you been paying attention to the amount of games they've blown in the bullpen lately? I know you're the extreme optimist to the point where you disregard anything negative that's going on with this team. Even you have to acknowledge the bullpen is an issue especially against the top teams in the league.
The bullpen does need to be better. But shifting Buchholz or Pomeranz to a high lev bullpen spot, bringing up Kelly, and hopefully getting Koji back in a couple of weeks is probably better than anything they'll get from the outside. And it has the potential to be good enough.
 

Bergs

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Have you been paying attention to the amount of games they've blown in the bullpen lately? I know you're the extreme optimist to the point where you disregard anything negative that's going on with this team. Even you have to acknowledge the bullpen is an issue especially against the top teams in the league.
Not to speak for Ras, but "the bullpen is an issue" and "we should probably still make the postseason" are 2 thoughts that are pretty easily contained in one worldview. Had you said "they need the late-inning reliever to win it all IMO", you likely would have received a milder response.

My take is that 2 of the 4 of Buch/Pom/Wright/EdRo will be in the pen in the postseason (I'm assuming Price & Porcello are locks). That is some pretty serious late relief potential. I'd love to have a dominant 8th inning guy for the rest of the regular season (duh), and maybe some combo of Buch/Pom/Kelly give us that in the regular season, but I actually think we line up better in the the post-season than we do in the regular season due the quality of the starters we won't be using.
 

Rasputin

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Have you been paying attention to the amount of games they've blown in the bullpen lately? I know you're the extreme optimist to the point where you disregard anything negative that's going on with this team. Even you have to acknowledge the bullpen is an issue especially against the top teams in the league.
The amount of games the bullpen has blown lately is one. One of the last twelve games, which includes games that were won by the following scores:

2-1
3-2
5-2
3-2

That's four eminently losable games in the last twelve that somehow weren't lost.

Also as has been pointed out, the Sox would have to lose four games in the standings--over the course of 37 games--to miss out on the playoffs and as I and others have pointed out, Buchholz going to the 8th inning would help a lot.

Kimbrel in the 9th. Buch in the 8th. Barnes and Ziegler by matchup in the 7th. It's not the best bullpen in baseball, but it will do, especially when combined with the best offense in the game and a solid rotation.

And no matter how often you and others try to paint me as someone ignoring the negative, it won't be true.
 

RedOctober3829

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The bullpen has gotten the job done in the last couple of weeks as has pretty much every area of the team. I'm just not comfortable going into high-pressure situations with the middle relief they currently have.

As to your comment on the Sox 4 games up with 37 to go, that is very easy to do if you remember 2011.
 

Rasputin

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The bullpen has gotten the job done in the last couple of weeks as has pretty much every area of the team. I'm just not comfortable going into high-pressure situations with the middle relief they currently have.

As to your comment on the Sox 4 games up with 37 to go, that is very easy to do if you remember 2011.
If it were easy to do, nobody would remember 2011.

Okay, that's an exaggeration. Making up four games over 37 is a lot easier than 2011, but it's not like there's a ton of time to get it done. Someone trying to make up that much ground this late has very very little room for error.
 

DeadlySplitter

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So the last three games of the trip were some terrible baseball against a bottom tier team. One of the strangest contenders I've seen
 

dynomite

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So the last three games of the trip were some terrible baseball against a bottom tier team. One of the strangest contenders I've seen
It is definitely a strange team.

Still, I don't know about "terrible" baseball. Take the last two losses. Our starters were very good in both games, the bullpen gave up 1 unearned run in 5 total innings, and while they didn't hit today the lineup was missing its best player.

Coming back from this trip at most 1 game out of 1st place is a good position to be in, I think.
 

Zososoxfan

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Pre ASB (MLB Rank)
OBP - .359 (1), Cubs 2nd at .348
SLG - .474 (1), O's 2nd at .467
GB/FB - 0.89 (middle of the pack)

Post ASB
OBP - .327 (10), Cincy 1st at .343
SLG - .446 (4), Dodgers 1st at .474
GB/FB - 0.74 (3rd lowest)
 

dhappy42

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It's a "strange team" in this respect: if Price had lived up to minimum expectations, the bullpen didn't suck so badly, they didn't leave the bases loaded so often and make stupid walk-off errors (only two?) the Red Sox would probably be 4-5 games ahead, in first place, running away with the division.

This is a potentially great team, performing like a very good one, with some fundamental flaws. I'll take that.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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It's a "strange team" in this respect: if Price had lived up to minimum expectations, the bullpen didn't suck so badly, they didn't leave the bases loaded so often and make stupid walk-off errors (only two?) the Red Sox would probably be 4-5 games ahead, in first place, running away with the division.
And yet, Porcello has done what we hoped Price would do. Wright has done what we hoped Buchholz would do, and Price has done what we hoped Porcello would do. Buchholz has done what most expected Wright would be able to do.

It's a weird season, but it feels like 2003 did, or the 2015 Cubs. They're really close, they're really exciting, and they're really only a few lucky breaks away from the championship.
 

nvalvo

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Pre ASB (MLB Rank)
OBP - .359 (1), Cubs 2nd at .348
SLG - .474 (1), O's 2nd at .467
GB/FB - 0.89 (middle of the pack)

Post ASB
OBP - .327 (10), Cincy 1st at .343
SLG - .446 (4), Dodgers 1st at .474
GB/FB - 0.74 (3rd lowest)
Also, pre/post ASB BABIP: .335/.294
 

dhappy42

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And yet, Porcello has done what we hoped Price would do. Wright has done what we hoped Buchholz would do, and Price has done what we hoped Porcello would do. Buchholz has done what most expected Wright would be able to do.
Yep. Weird season. Price and Buchholz falter, but Porcello and Wright are Cy Young contenders. Ortiz, at 40, is having a career year. (Not quite. 2007 was slightly better, but this one's not over yet.) The Sox pick up one of baseball's elite closers to add to Koji and Taz, which should be a lights-out bullpen, but... well, you get the idea. Strange things happen.

It's a weird season, but it feels like 2003 did, or the 2015 Cubs. They're really close, they're really exciting, and they're really only a few lucky breaks away from the championship.
Or unlucky breaks. There've been at least six games this team "should have" won. Great teams are "lucky." They win games when a ball falls out of a fielder's glove. This team has Bill Buckner-itis. (No cut on Buckner, but you know what I mean.) I hope it clears up before the playoffs.
 

Sampo Gida

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Right now, the Red Sox have a few guys struggling. JBJ, XB, Shaw, and Holt all have sub 600 OPS this month. Starting Pitching has been great. Everyone in the rotation has a sub 3 ERA this month. Barnes, Abad and Tazawa have struggled in the pen though. Ebb and flow of a season.

Having Chris Young get a ton of AB against RHP'ers probably won't go well but XB, JBJ and Shaw should turn it around soon and offset Benintendis loss somewhat . The key will be keeping the SPing on track.
 

AB in DC

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The Red Sox now have:
- OPS of .761 with no one on base (1st in the AL -- league average is .732)
- OPS of .859 with runners in scoring position (1st in the AL, by a lot -- league average is .757)
- but an OPS of .600 with the bases loaded (13th of 15 -- league average is .685)


That...has to be luck. Right??
 

luckysox

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The Red Sox now have:
- OPS of .761 with no one on base (1st in the AL -- league average is .732)
- OPS of .859 with runners in scoring position (1st in the AL, by a lot -- league average is .757)
- but an OPS of .600 with the bases loaded (13th of 15 -- league average is .685)


That...has to be luck. Right??
Both B and C are likely luck driven. It'll all even out, even though it doesn't feel like it.
 

grimshaw

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One thing the Sox haven't done this year is lose vs. 500 teams or worse.
The only crappy team they were under .500 against was the White Sox. (3-4).
They also haven't dominated any team by going anything more than 5-2.

Every other AL playoff contender has had their quirks:
O's were 2-12 vs Houston and Seattle. The O's are 1 game over vs playoff contenders with a -51 run spread.
Cleveland was swept by the Phillies, were 3-10 vs the O's and Yanks and are 11-1 vs Detroit
Tigers are 20-3 vs Miami, Minnesota and the Rays, and 1-11 vs Detroit
Astros are 17-2 vs LAA and Balt and 2-11 vs Tex
KC is 20-5 vs ChiW and Minn and 2-11 vs LAA and Tex
Yanks are 4-12 vs Col and Tor
M's are 6-1 vs Balt and were swept by the Twins
Rangers are 11-18 vs the Twins, White Sox, Angels and Rays and 28 games over vs playoff contenders
Jays were 1-5 vs the White Sox and have an 81 positive spread vs playoff contenders
 

mfried

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The Red Sox now have:
- OPS of .761 with no one on base (1st in the AL -- league average is .732)
- OPS of .859 with runners in scoring position (1st in the AL, by a lot -- league average is .757)
- but an OPS of .600 with the bases loaded (13th of 15 -- league average is .685)


That...has to be luck. Right??
What's the big difference when bases are loaded? The pitcher is pretty much forced to throw the ball over the plate. He can't really risk a walk forcing in the run, nor a wild pitch/passed ball letting in a run. Thus, our offense does better with stronger and less predictable pitching than with meatball or their relatives. Our guys are putting pressure on themselves to live up to expectations, and they can't handle it. This isn't only a matter of luck, though that plays a role as well.
 

geoduck no quahog

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It's certainly hard to imagine this bullpen coming up big in pressure-packed October playoff games.
Read Bergs' post above. The playoff bullpen will be stronger than the regular season one.

Now it simply comes down to which teams are going to get hot at the right time in mid-September. The Red Sox bullpen through September is what it is. No saviors are walking through that door.
 

Al Zarilla

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Read Bergs' post above. The playoff bullpen will be stronger than the regular season one.

Now it simply comes down to which teams are going to get hot at the right time in mid-September. The Red Sox bullpen through September is what it is. No saviors are walking through that door.
Won't the other playoff teams be putting a starter in the pen also? I guess you could say that the Red Sox could benefit more by adding a starter because their bullpen is so bad.