When the Red Sox traded for Rick Porcello, I felt at the time that it was a good trade. When they extended Porcello to more than $20 million a season, before he even threw a pitch for the Boston Red Sox, I thought they were crazy. I did not like that move at all. I believed he needed to prove that he could pitch in Boston (I don't just mean in Fenway Park...I mean in this market) at a level that would justify that contract before they bestowed it upon him, and frankly, I didn't think he could do it.
The first half of 2015, he proved me right. From the start of the season through July 1, he put up this line:
6.08 era, .818 ops, 1.40 whip, 7.1 k/9, 0.81 gb
Then the rest of the season happened. 9 of his last 12 starts he gave up 3 or fewer runs. He compiled this line:
3.49 era, .747 ops, 1.31 whip, 8.5 k/9, 1.02 gb
Those numbers, obviously, were remarkably better than the previous numbers. But they came at a time when the Sox were pretty much out of it, and it wasn't really clear if this was the "real" Rick Porcello, or if this was the non-pressure Rick Porcello.
Well, fast-forward to this season. 14 of his 19 starts, he's given up 3 or fewer runs. 18 of his 19 starts, he's given up 4 or fewer runs. And that 19th start? He just gave up 5. He didn't totally blow up, like even David Price has on occasion. Just remarkable consistency game-to-game from Porcello.
His line this season:
3.47 era, .702 ops, 1.16 whip, 7.5 k/9, 0.83 gb
So what has happened? How did Porcello turn it around? Was it just bad luck? Compare his 2015 fip and era numbers with those numbers in 2016:
2015
fip: 4.13
era: 4.92
DIFF: +0.79
2016
fip: 3.83
era: 3.47
DIFF: -0.36
He's been more like the 2014 Porcello - the one maybe the Sox were getting. That year Porcello put up this line:
3.43 era, .712 ops, 1.23 era, 5.7 k/9, 1.01 gb
He accomplished those numbers in 2014 with a much heavier dose of ground ball outs, and this year he's elevating more and getting more strikeouts than in 2014.
Since July 1, 2015, here's what Porcello has done for the Red Sox:
31 g, 196.2 ip, 200 h, 76 er, 49 bb, 174 k, 3.48 era, 1.27 whip, 8.0 k/9
28 of those 31 starts, he's given up 4 or fewer runs. In the other three he gave up 5, 6, and 6 runs, with those two 6-run games being just 5 earned runs.
Just tremendous consistency from Porcello. The overall line is not quite Cy Young worthy, but he's proven to be a pretty damned good pitcher for them, and worth that contract they gave him.
So what have you guys seen in Porcello that accounts for his success? I saw him hit 95 a few times last night, which surprised me. The movement on his two-seamer looked very good, especially inside to lefties. And his poise (an intangible, obviously) seemed very good, especially in that first inning when it could have been a crooked number for San Fran and he got out of it unscathed.
The first half of 2015, he proved me right. From the start of the season through July 1, he put up this line:
6.08 era, .818 ops, 1.40 whip, 7.1 k/9, 0.81 gb
Then the rest of the season happened. 9 of his last 12 starts he gave up 3 or fewer runs. He compiled this line:
3.49 era, .747 ops, 1.31 whip, 8.5 k/9, 1.02 gb
Those numbers, obviously, were remarkably better than the previous numbers. But they came at a time when the Sox were pretty much out of it, and it wasn't really clear if this was the "real" Rick Porcello, or if this was the non-pressure Rick Porcello.
Well, fast-forward to this season. 14 of his 19 starts, he's given up 3 or fewer runs. 18 of his 19 starts, he's given up 4 or fewer runs. And that 19th start? He just gave up 5. He didn't totally blow up, like even David Price has on occasion. Just remarkable consistency game-to-game from Porcello.
His line this season:
3.47 era, .702 ops, 1.16 whip, 7.5 k/9, 0.83 gb
So what has happened? How did Porcello turn it around? Was it just bad luck? Compare his 2015 fip and era numbers with those numbers in 2016:
2015
fip: 4.13
era: 4.92
DIFF: +0.79
2016
fip: 3.83
era: 3.47
DIFF: -0.36
He's been more like the 2014 Porcello - the one maybe the Sox were getting. That year Porcello put up this line:
3.43 era, .712 ops, 1.23 era, 5.7 k/9, 1.01 gb
He accomplished those numbers in 2014 with a much heavier dose of ground ball outs, and this year he's elevating more and getting more strikeouts than in 2014.
Since July 1, 2015, here's what Porcello has done for the Red Sox:
31 g, 196.2 ip, 200 h, 76 er, 49 bb, 174 k, 3.48 era, 1.27 whip, 8.0 k/9
28 of those 31 starts, he's given up 4 or fewer runs. In the other three he gave up 5, 6, and 6 runs, with those two 6-run games being just 5 earned runs.
Just tremendous consistency from Porcello. The overall line is not quite Cy Young worthy, but he's proven to be a pretty damned good pitcher for them, and worth that contract they gave him.
So what have you guys seen in Porcello that accounts for his success? I saw him hit 95 a few times last night, which surprised me. The movement on his two-seamer looked very good, especially inside to lefties. And his poise (an intangible, obviously) seemed very good, especially in that first inning when it could have been a crooked number for San Fran and he got out of it unscathed.
