Pitching Targets

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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Mar 11, 2008
27,644
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I'm not talking about his perception or value and I didn't say they were elite. I was responding to you saying they "are not inspiring". I also didn't conveniently leave out this year--I was/am acknowledging that he has struggled some this year, but again, I was responding to you saying he has "never" had inspiring peripherals--that speaks to more than this season.

My question is not to start an argument--it's to ask what is wrong with a guy that had a career 133 ERA+ besides that you think others overvalue him. If the only issue is that you really think that others do have this incorrect perception then maybe we're just talking past each other.

But he'd be a decent pickup *if* the cost was right.
I thought it was pretty obvious that my description was to be taken within the context of him being a front of the rotation starter. He's fine for a middle of the rotation guy, but he's not going to be acquirable for that cost. Sorry if I wasn't clear.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
54,030
I thought it was pretty obvious that my description was to be taken within the context of him being a front of the rotation starter. He's fine for a middle of the rotation guy, but he's not going to be acquirable for that cost. Sorry if I wasn't clear.
Noted. But the post I responded to didn't mention anything about "front of rotation" or cost to acquire him, just that he'd bump EdRo or Wright and his numbers were, well, what we discussed.

Moving on...
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
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Aug 15, 2006
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With these prices Buchholz better be playing elsewhere on August 1st...Cashner might actually be a worse pitcher this year.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Mar 27, 2006
6,134
Jeffress will cost a top prospect.
I'm not sure that Jeffress will cost a top prospect. He looks like a ROOGY to me. .321/.398/.487 vs. Ls this year. Over the past 3 years before that - .294/.367/.406. Overall, xFIP of 3.47 in '16, nice GB rate. Miller Park is a launching pad too. Of course, with 24 saves(!) and a 2.13 ERA, you might be right that the ask will be high.
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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“@JeffPassan: Sign that the trade market has officially gotten out of hand: Jeremy Hellickson may well fetch at least three, and perhaps four, prospects.”
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
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No, put the whole MLB staff on the market and see what offers you get.
Bingo.

One of Epstein's mantras was the cliche of "wanting to build for the future and for the now." If you can trade Buchholz or a reliever or two in a sellers market, then see what the hell you can get.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
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Dec 4, 2009
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Wut

“@jonmorosi: Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.”
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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With these prices Buchholz better be playing elsewhere on August 1st...Cashner might actually be a worse pitcher this year.
This is fascinating to me. When we talk about moving Buchholz, we think that there's basically no market for him. But all of a sudden, Jeremy Hellickson, of all people, might fetch 3-4 prospects? Let's compare Hellickson with Buchholz.

Hellickson
2013 - 174.0 ip, 5.17 era, 4.22 fip, 1.35 whip
2014 - 63.2 ip, 4.52 era, 4.15 fip, 1.46 whip
2015 - 146.0 ip, 4.62 era, 4.44 fip, 1.33 whip
2016 - 125.2 ip, 3.65 era, 4.17 fip, 1.12 whip
TOTALS - 509.1 ip, 4.56 era, 4.26 fip, 1.30 whip

Buchholz
2013 - 108.1 ip, 1.74 era, 2.78 fip, 1.03 whip
2014 - 170.1 ip, 5.34 era, 4.01 fip, 1.39 whip
2015 - 113.1 ip, 3.26 era, 2.68 fip, 1.21 whip
2016 - 85.2 ip, 5.99 era, 5.78 fip, 1.47 whip
TOTALS - 477.2 ip, 4.15 era, 3.73 fip, 1.28 whip

Clay's ceiling is much higher than Hellickson's. Hellickson is signed through the end of this year, so he's purely a rental. Clay has a team option at a reasonable price for 2017, so he's not necessarily a rental (though if he sucks, it costs just $500k to decline the option). I get that Hellickson has been better so far this year, and I'm ok with him even having a better market than Clay. But Clay has like no market while Hellickson could fetch three or four legit prospects?
 

TimScribble

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“@jonmorosi: Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.”
That's crazy.

DD should definitely gauge the market for Kelly, Clay, etc. +4 ERA pitchers and relievers bringing back that much? That's just insane.
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 50m50 minutes ago
On off chance either team gets serious about Chris Sale, White Sox scouted #RedSox Double-A club last night (Moncada, Benintendi, Dubon,etc)

Red Sox were not at his last start yesterday
“@jaysonst: Still think it’s unlikely that Chris Sale gets dealt. But FWIW, the Rangers, Orioles, Marlins & Nationals all had scouts at his start Thurs”
 

E5 Yaz

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Red Sox were not at his last start yesterday
“@jaysonst: Still think it’s unlikely that Chris Sale gets dealt. But FWIW, the Rangers, Orioles, Marlins & Nationals all had scouts at his start Thurs”
Does anyone really need to "scout" Chris Sale at this point?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
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Wut

“@jonmorosi: Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.”
I'm not sure why that's such a surprise. Miller fetched Rodriguez two years ago as a 2-month rental. While his salary is higher now, it's in line with his production and he's locked into it for two more years (so the Yankees aren't in a move him or lose him for nothing position). Between that and the current market place, is it any surprise that a consensus top 5 prospect is the asking price?
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
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I would send Kimbrel for Giolito in a heartbeat.
This is fascinating. Despite his back-to-back losses, Ziegler could close with occasional help, perhaps, from Barnes. It would be tempting to see if the Nats would bite.

Of course, I used to think that Buchholz should close
 

heavyde050

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Nov 17, 2006
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I'm not sure why that's such a surprise. Miller fetched Rodriguez two years ago as a 2-month rental. While his salary is higher now, it's in line with his production and he's locked into it for two more years (so the Yankees aren't in a move him or lose him for nothing position). Between that and the current market place, is it any surprise that a consensus top 5 prospect is the asking price?
I am still a little surprised. Giolito is a much better prospect than ERod ever was.

I know that Miller is a great pitcher, but I don't see how a reliever of his age (31, but not 32 until May of next season) would net one of the best prospects in all of baseball.

I think it would greatly benefit the Yankees in the future to take Giolito for Miller straight up, if offered. I don't buy the talk that Giolito is not enough. I also tend to place a lot of value in prospects, especially consensus top 10 prospects.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
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Does anyone really need to "scout" Chris Sale at this point?
With his latest meltdown probably more than ever. Aside from that you always want to have people checking for mechanical changes that could indicate physical issues.
 

E5 Yaz

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With his latest meltdown probably more than ever. Aside from that you always want to have people checking for mechanical changes that could indicate physical issues.
Perhaps, but it's unlikely that either of those elements could be determined based off one appearance before the deadline
 

nvalvo

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I think I would too, but what would we have to pay for another good bullpen arm to replace him?
We'd trade for one of the Royals' arms with different prospects (or something like that). We really need a legit high-minors starting pitching prospect with top of the rotation potential for the 2017-21 window.

Part of this is that I'm a bit bearish on the 2016 team, in part because I'm worried about the bullpen and in part because Steven Wright has allowed 23 R in his last 29 2/3 IP.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
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Not mentioned is if the Yanks pay a lot of the salary or not - though I don't know if "straight up" means salaries as they are.

I think part of the reason for the ravenous pitching market is because of the parity and the teams who never win have a crack at it. If you're the Rangers, Astros Nats, Cubs and Indians who don't ever win anything, I can understand it a little bit that this year could be the exception for paying insane prices. Being put on the map is huge for them. Look what it did for the Royals.

The Nats and O's are competing for fans in that market as well and both of them are definitely close. A Texas based team, I don't believe has ever won either.

I'm still inclined to think all of this is bullshit anyhow with the Yankees outright lying. How often does a top 3 prospect in all of baseball get dealt, much less for a reliever?
 
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payne8567

New Member
Jul 9, 2007
126
Heyman says Yankees would not agree to Miller for Giolitto swap

@JonHeyman
for the record, yankees would not do this

"Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up."


Apologies for the formatting, I'm behind the times
 

pokey_reese

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Jun 25, 2008
16,308
Boston, MA
Heyman says Yankees would not agree to Miller for Giolitto swap

@JonHeyman
for the record, yankees would not do this

"Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up."

Apologies for the formatting, I'm behind the times
If it's true that the Yankees turned this deal down, or anything like it, then count me in as thrilled. If they still can't decide that this isn't their year and turn a reliever into a guy who, a year or two from now, could well be the best starter in the division, then I applaud their organizational philosophy.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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If it's true that the Yankees turned this deal down, or anything like it, then count me in as thrilled. If they still can't decide that this isn't their year and turn a reliever into a guy who, a year or two from now, could well be the best starter in the division, then I applaud their organizational philosophy.
They probably won't have space for him once they buy all the 2018 free agents.
 

BoSoxFink

Stripes
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Jul 31, 2006
7,662
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Heyman says Yankees would not agree to Miller for Giolitto swap

@JonHeyman
for the record, yankees would not do this

"Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up."


Apologies for the formatting, I'm behind the times
holy shit, seriously? I would trade Kimbrel straight up for Giolito of the Nats would do it
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Which Kimbrel is it that any of you think the Nats would be interested in. The guy coming off knee surgery who's working his way off the DL and has been perhaps slightly less than we hoped for this season?
I don't think anyone does. Just pointing out that I think the Yankees are crazy if that deal is actually on the table and they turn it down.
 

YTF

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I think they squeeze the Nats and get one more guy OR add something else to get a couple more pieces back. Wondering what Value (if any) Gardner might hold. Also curious as to whether Papelbon keeps his closer slot of if he gets Storened. Guessing Miller would start out as the set up guy.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
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Sep 20, 2005
8,208
Do we think the Yanks are simply trying to hold out for more, or would they genuinely rather have Miller than Giolitto if those were the only two options? My guess is the former. I hope it blows up in their face and Washington trades for Davis instead.
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
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Which Kimbrel is it that any of you think the Nats would be interested in. The guy coming off knee surgery who's working his way off the DL and has been perhaps slightly less than we hoped for this season?
Both of them
 

dcmissle

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Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Do we think the Yanks are simply trying to hold out for more, or would they genuinely rather have Miller than Giolitto if those were the only two options? My guess is the former. I hope it blows up in their face and Washington trades for Davis instead.
There is nothing in Rizzo's track record to suggest this will happen. They will put Giolito in the pen before this happens in all likelihood.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
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Jul 15, 2005
71,125
There is nothing in Rizzo's track record to suggest this will happen. They will put Giolito in the pen before this happens in all likelihood.
They would put Lopez in the bullpen probably, not Giolito, but the thing is that if he doesn't transition well, then they're stuck for this season. I thought they would work something out for Melancon before I read that PIT needs a MLB-ready 7th inning guy back in any deal for MM, and that doesn't really help WAS.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
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Nov 28, 2005
7,222
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@JaneMLB
Rich Hill will not make his Sunday start.
With a setback from the blister, Hill won't be able to pitch until at least August 5th they are reporting. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing if the cost has come down for Hill (reportedly was Espinosa) and seeing if Beane gets desperate and takes a couple of 2nd tier prospects for him. If you get 5-7 starts out of him down the stretch and have him for the postseason, that is probably and upgrade on EdRo and insurance in case, you know, it rains on Steven Wright in October.