Just noticed JBJ has 15sb for his career and hasn't been caught. In the minors, he was 35/58. Thought it was interesting even if it means very little.
All the Way with JBJ - 2016
- Thread starter BroodsSexton
- Start date
Probably means he is more disciplined in when he decides to run. Or is allowed to.
The cool thing is that he can name the kid Jackie Bradley III, either way.
Also, shouldn't you (MadStork) already know the answer to this, given your screen name?
JBJ was rightfully named May AL Player of the Month.
Mookie's off to the races to win June's award. Pretty neat.
Mookie's off to the races to win June's award. Pretty neat.
Well his first game of June was a 2 HR game, so I'd say he's still off to a great start.
Mookie is leading the AL in OPS (3.467) for the month of June. Chris Young (3.300) is second! Old friend Matt Albers (3.000) is tied for third!!!!
Going into July his OPS was .942. His OPS atm is .944. Where is the regression? Is he really a .900+ ops player?
It's entirely possible that he is. In the minors he was always a high OBP guy without the power. It's not all that unusual for guys to grow into power in their mid 20s. Maybe this is what he really is.
On the other hand, looking at his monthly splits, he had a 1.175 OPS in April and his .872 in July is his second highest month.
Semantics, but his ISO in 2012 was .167 and in 2013 it was .196. He had power, just grew into more. His 2014 is really the year that makes no sense in his career arch. His OPS in July is also higher than .944 atm, since he went into July with a .942 OPS. It's a sample size of <100 PA, so today's game has a huge impact.
And if this is his true talent level, just how valuable is he? Why is he a side note to Betts and Bogaerts? The 3 years in age?
That, plus the extended period of abject awfulness that may be making everybody a little wary of taking his current level of play at face value. I mean, consider the fact that even now, after almost a year of All-Star offense, his career wRC+ is still under 100.
At a certain point, though, it's hard to deny that the good stuff has superseded the bad stuff--especially since the good stuff, power aside, is much more in line with what we saw in the minors.
But yeah, also the age thing. With Betts and Bogaerts, it's a real possibility that they're still getting better, and at the least, they're likely to be this good for the next 6-7 years. With JBJ, as new as this level of play is, his age makes it likely that it's his peak, and the window to stay at that peak seems a bit shorter. But right now, he's probably the best player of the three, and that's a pretty extraordinary thing.
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Of all the surprises this year, for some reason I think Bradley is the most for real. I mean, Wright - he's an incredible story too...but the knuckler giveth and the knuckler taketh away. Maybe I'm showing an anti-knuckler bias (and Wright did just get crushed) but I believe in Bradley's future a lot more. One of the worst hitters in MLB in 2014...to among the best in 2016. I'm not sure everyone (and I mean baseball fans in general, not just people here) appreciates how unusual that is. I'm a numbers guy, but I think that development shows some really outstanding personal character and baseball smarts on Bradley's part.
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Including tonight's game since the beginning of 2015 compared to 2013-2014.
168 Games, 642 PA, .283/.366/.532 100 runs, 42 doubles, 10 3bs, 25 HRs, 103 RBI, 10/11 SB, 64bb/143K. 133 OPS+ 6.3 WAR* (doesn't include tonight)
127 Games, 530 PA, .196/.268/.280 063 runs, 24 doubles, 02 3bs, 04 HRs, 040 RBI, 10/10 SB, 41bb/152K. 053 OPS+ 0.4 WAR
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I'm a believer at this point. I think he came up with exploitable holes in his game but worked hard to fill them. He's got some swing-and-miss streakiness in him but the skills look real. I'd sign him long term now with JH's money!
And using the beginning of 2015 actually soft-pedals the turnaround, because his career line continued to get worse all the way through August 8 last year. On the morning of August 9, 2015, his career slash was .188/.268/.268. Since then it's .302/.379/.575. This is, roughly speaking, like turning yourself over the course of one year from Ed Brinkman into Hank Aaron.
his career slash had OBP = OPS? that's basically impossible in a long term sample, so tha'ts wrong.
Still, yeah.
Still, yeah.
No, OBP = SLG. If you want them as 4-part slash lines, .188/.268/.268/.536 vs. .302/.379/.575/.954.
Slash is average, obp and slugging %. His obp was equal to his slugging, not OPS.
The 20th anniversary of the day Jerry Garcia ascended to join the celestial choir. That powerful mojo is elevating JBJ to greatness. I predict a long, strange career for him, with a lot of really good highs.
I was Camden Yards last night. The bombs by Leon (438' true distance) and Davis (413') were impressive-looking smashes, but they both pulled the heck out of them. What wowed me was Bradley's dinger to center.
http://m.mlb.com/video/v1062381883/?game_pk=448650
Tapped it off the end of the bat for 416'.
http://m.mlb.com/video/v1062381883/?game_pk=448650
Tapped it off the end of the bat for 416'.
JBJ is having a really cold August thus far, OPSing .712. BABIP also way down.
Interestingly, the further up the line up he's been this year, the worse he's done. He's a .363 hitter with a 1.025 OPS at #9, dropping down to a .230 hitter with a .705 OPS at #5.
He's also significantly weaker on the road than at home, by .120 in OPS. (.318 hitter vs. .242 hitter).
Is he just in a funk? Is he reverting to his mean? Has the league made adjustments? Is he better at the bottom of the order?
Interestingly, the further up the line up he's been this year, the worse he's done. He's a .363 hitter with a 1.025 OPS at #9, dropping down to a .230 hitter with a .705 OPS at #5.
He's also significantly weaker on the road than at home, by .120 in OPS. (.318 hitter vs. .242 hitter).
Is he just in a funk? Is he reverting to his mean? Has the league made adjustments? Is he better at the bottom of the order?
The Red Sox are still 2nd in MLB in wOBA from the CF spot, behind only the Los Angeles Mike Trouts.
JBJ does hit a lot of fly balls oppo off the wall in LF at Fenway. Those unfortunately get caught more often on the road.
I think it's not something to worry too much about.
JBJ does hit a lot of fly balls oppo off the wall in LF at Fenway. Those unfortunately get caught more often on the road.
I think it's not something to worry too much about.
It's the time of year where players are playing through nagging injuries. They've mentioned a couple of times recently that JBJ's toe on his back footis still bothering him from (I think) a HBP. It could be as simple a thing as not always being able to maintain his balance because of the pressure applied on the toe
"August thus far" is the definition of small sample size. He's still a few at bats away from the whole season being a fairly reliable sample size for OPS, let alone BABIP. Likewise cutting sub-season results into even tinier splits (home/away, lineup position, etc) is pretty much the definition of junk math.
( http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-samples-become-reliable/ has some discussion of how large samples need to be for the stats to be somewhat reliable when discussing various statistics).
JBJ is a human, not a computerized simulation. Small samples are likely to be incorrect in judging a player's value or abilities, however they can still be indicative of a change occurring.
When a young player with a history like JBJ (e.g. a career MLB OPS of .638) is in the midst of a cold snap, I think it's important analyze things and see whether it's bad luck, an injury (which could be the explanation), bad habits returning (I haven't seen recent screengrabs, but we did have quite a hitch in his swing initially), or something else. I still wonder if there's some correlation with the shift in line up position, which has been gradually occurring has he's cooled off from his red hot, bottom of the line up May.
How about the 70 games since his hitting streak ended: ..239 with an OPS of .781.
The discussions last year were "how low does JBJ's offensive have to be to support his defense to justify his spot on the roster." I think he's just reverting back to the mean and when all is said and done he will be a .260 or so hitter with 20-25 HRs a year and gold glove caliber defense. The interesting thing will be if DD thinks his stock will never be higher and trade him this offseason.
I was thinking about a comp for JBJ the other day, and I came up with Torii Hunter. Good not great offensive player, great defensive player for most of his career. Career slash of 277 AVG 331 OBP 461 SLG. I think JBJ may hit for a lower average with a slightly higher OBP and similar or slightly higher SLG, but I don't think I would be interested in trading him if he is going to have a Torii Hunter type of career, even if he is at the peak of his value.
So you're willing to admit that JBJ's current "cold snap" is still .074 OPS higher than his MLB career line.
That's a start.
As E5 said, he's been battling a nagging toe thing. And as I mentioned, his batting approach appears to play better in front of the Green Monster.
He had a bad game at the plate yesterday after a terrible travel schedule. Also, as the team's de facto #5 hitter, he's recently been facing LHRP specialists 1-2 PA per game more than he did while hitting 9th.
You are right that the players are human beings, but I think you're probably worrying about something that's actually a normal part of the ebb and flow of a long season.
The inreased power's still there, as is the long-term improvement in strikeout rate. JBJ still looks like a young player who's made a sustainable and significant improvement to his offensive game, to me.
Maybe if there's a dramatic change. Even that's dubious. But look at your example: a .712 OPS so far in August. Post on June 17 and he had a .717 for the month. On April 23 he had a .582 for the month. On July 19th it was .729.
If you want to make scouting observations that's fine. But looking at OPS over such small stretches tells us nothing.
The most likely case is that the year to date's full stats aren't even enough to be predictive; his career stats are more meaningful, and a lucky May is throwing the year's numbers well off his actual talent level.
I think that's a pretty interesting observation. If that's the case, I wonder if it's better to have him or someone else at #5?
Better Joey Votto.
But until that happy event, it's still better to use JBJ (.250/.336/.375 vs LHP) than Shaw (.196/.242/.391) or especially Holt (.100/.250/.100).
More realistically, you'll have to wait for Chris Young to come off the DL before there's a notably better candidate.
Maybe Leon, but he's been a rock anchoring the bottom of the lineup.
It's wonderful that a .712 OPS for a month is considered a slump when the player we are talking about is JBJ. Plus, it's not fair to ignore his season up to this point when looking at his career numbers (.239/.317/.412)... if his career numbers are even indicative of anything other than a player rushed/injured/something anyway. His career really is a one year anomaly, and that one year was 2014. And while he is only 5/20 in his last 5 games, he does have 3 HRs and a triple.
By Month: April .807 May 1.175 June .804 July .839 August .667.
Chances are, Bradley is probably the .780-.850 OPS bat he was originally projected to be.
By Month: April .807 May 1.175 June .804 July .839 August .667.
Chances are, Bradley is probably the .780-.850 OPS bat he was originally projected to be.
Update, JBJ is now 7-9 in stolen bases. Caught twice.
Somewhat puzzling. You'd think someone with his speed would steal more.
Is it? It's the entire Redsox team. Most players upon being promoted to Boston have much better success rates.
JBJ 35/58 milb 20/22 mlb
Xander 17/33 26/34, in the last 2 years 23/28. His career high in the minors was 7 sb.
Betts got worse, but he was playing against inferior competition. Moncada's will probably get worse too. 92/107, 47/59
Shaw is 4/5 this year after being 29/39 in the minors.
Holt 64/97, 24/29.
7 successful out of 9 attempts is a small sample size. Some of the successful ones could even be because of things like the ball getting away from the catcher a bit. I'd like to see a comparison of his running speed on the bases vs. in the OF. He looks plenty fast in the outfield, at least when he's busting it vs. his gliding to a can o' corn. Running the bases, he swings his arms kind of too far away from his body. Cue shots from the Elaine/Raquel Welch Seinfeld episode. But he definitely looks faster in the OF.
As long as Leon is still raking, it seems like #5 might be a worthy experiment with him. It would also be interesting to see if JBJ starts heating up again at the bottom of the line up.
Until someone can prove with math that a player can be a few ticks below league average at the plate for almost three weeks and not be full rubbish, I'm going to remain concerned.
This conversation is bizarre. Sure, BABIP hasn't helped, but Bradley in the last week is 6/25 with a HBP, six strikeouts, a double — oh, and 4 home runs. That's wringing an .865 OPS out of a .133 BABIP.
He's also tenth in the AL in OPS, and plays a plus defensive CF. Not the problem.
Another angle. Look at his monthly splits. Make especially sure to scroll over to the BABIP numbers.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/20/2016.
He's also tenth in the AL in OPS, and plays a plus defensive CF. Not the problem.
Another angle. Look at his monthly splits. Make especially sure to scroll over to the BABIP numbers.
Code:
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
April/March 23 23 89 81 11 22 6 4 1 13 1 0 5 21 .272 .326 .481 .807 39 1 2 0 1 0 0 .350 83 121
May 27 27 114 97 17 37 7 0 8 24 2 0 17 15 .381 .474 .701 1.175 68 1 0 0 0 3 0 .392 166 218
June 24 24 102 87 15 19 6 2 4 13 4 1 11 25 .218 .333 .471 .805 41 0 4 0 0 0 0 .259 83 111
July 25 25 103 94 18 28 6 0 4 12 0 0 7 18 .298 .350 .489 .839 46 2 1 0 1 0 1 .329 91 128
August 16 16 67 60 10 12 2 0 3 8 0 1 5 18 .200 .284 .383 .667 23 1 2 0 0 0 1 .231 52 76Generated 8/20/2016.
I guess it's the home runs that are doing it. Because in that same time span he's 2nd In the MLB in RBIs. (to Mookie)