Survivor: Bullpen
- Thread starter Sprowl
- Start date
Honestly Pap if you're not going to use the guy what difference does it make who you replace him with? If the Sox are blowing another team out the starter is likely to go at least 6 or maybe more just so as not to get into the pen unless you're in one of those rare stretches where the bullpen needs some work. So in all likelihood you're looking at games where the Sox are getting it handed to them early or a situation like last night when Buchholz might be used and in all honesty, how many of the former have we seen this season? And when that occurs, how long is he going to require to warm up? Haven't we seen Farrell have to use another arm while Buchholz gets sufficiently warmed? I really see no value in keeping him on the roster if that's all he can offer.
If it doesn't make a difference, then who cares if it's Clay, when you're paying him anyway? Anyone in AAA that offers any modicum of future value should be getting experience by actually pitching. I see zero value in bringing a guy up solely for the purpose of mop up duty when you already have a guy you're paying $13M on the roster who can perform that duty. I can't answer your question about how long it takes him to warm up because I haven't been able to sit and watch a full game where that problem has occurred, but is be interested to know if it's legitimate. If that were truly the case last night he could have had him up in plenty of time as Hembree and Layne self destructed. I just don't see the point of getting our panties in a bunch when he will be gone in a matter of weeks anyway and there's no one at AAA that offers much upside. I'm working off the assumption that they want Kelly to settle in a bit more and have him actually contribute, so otherwise I see no one to replace him. Open to suggestions tho.
This is good. Alternately: "It was a close game for a few innings there. With so many injuries, I needed to make sure we had pitching depth in case it went into extras."
You have a point assuming that the role that Buchholz has been banished to is all they would be looking for out of his replacement and quite frankly i would be hugely disappointed if that were the case. My point is and has always been that they need more out of that spot and if you're going to pitch him MAYBE once a week in a situation where you find yourself without Kimbrel, Koji, Taz and Smith then IMO that slot is being wasted.
I don't necessarily agree with having someone get regular reps in AAA is always preferred over a once-in-a-while outing in MLB, esp. if that spot is going to go to Kelly or Tazawa anyway. I think there is some degree of value of getting exp. pitching in the big leagues, even if sporadically for a while and in low-leverage situations -- especially for the guys that are on the other side of 25.
Another potential issue with CB's lack of use (but roster spot) is the fact that it just encourages Farrell to ride RP harder, something that could be a problem in September/October if any of these guys fatigue/break down. For example, going into the 9th inning the Red Sox were 98.4% to win by WE. Isn't that exactly where we want Buchholz chewing up innings? Did Farrell really need to go to Ziegler there and put himself in a situation where he might have to go to him 3 nights in a row (in a higher leverage situation, no less)?
I'm not a minion of WPA, so 98.4% kinda means crap to me. I've been critical of Farrell on may occasions but let night I had no problem with him going to Ziegler there. The game was a shit show, they had little left other than him and I'd rather not have taken many chances at that point, no matter what the numbers someone generated after the fact told me. They got out with a win by the skin of their teeth. Especially with Wright going tonight against a shitty team, I have no problem with that move.
I see your point, in the earlier statement and it's fair in certain cases, I'm just not seeing a candidate that fits that bill right now. Again, I'm open to suggestions. Who would you prefer they promote and DFA Clay?
If all Buchholz is going to do is pitch meaningless 9th innings in blowouts, I'd rather someone like Pat Light or William Cuevas get that spot, TBH (particularly Light who, assuming he can marginally cut the walk rate, could be an interesting in-house relief option the next few years). Last night's 9th inning appearance was not "absorbing innings," either especially after Farrell pretty much said "CB didn't pitch because he's stretched out and we wanted to keep him available if we needed a long guy."
If he's still doing mopup work after the waiver deadline then I agree with you, but if there's any chance we can turn him into even a low level prospect by not DFAing him I'm all for that. We know what Cuevas and Light are able to do (and what they aren't able to do, why risk exposing them?).
Kelly? I mean, I dislike him and his inconsistencies almost as much as Clay, but he's less of a mess right now.
And assuming Kelly doesn't go completely off the rails at AAA over the next week, I think you'll have him no later than 8/1. Isn't pre-deadline maneuvering all that's really going on here? Farrell is being allowed to manage the players, and has made it clear to DD where Buchholz stands. He won't start short of Ebola ripping through the clubhouse on game day. He won't relieve unless they're ahead by more than twice the number of innings remaining* or they are getting killed or its the 26th inning. I think DD is just doing all he can to see if and they can turn Buccholz into something useful, maybe even for this season. There are a lot of possible permutations, given the range of $$$ the Sox can throw in, the availability of a 3-team deal, etc. And the extra few days might give the FO some insight into whether they need to get some rotation support if Rodriguez isn't really better than Buchholz, or whether they can concentrate on bullpen arms while Koji and Kimbrel are idle.
*my personal formula. YMMV.
Heyman on MLB saying Sox have inquired on Sale and Quintana, thinks they may also talk Robertson
For what it's worth, Taz back and Noe Ramirez down.
http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/191047966/red-sox-activate-junichi-tazawa-from-dl/
http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/191047966/red-sox-activate-junichi-tazawa-from-dl/
Some BP updates
“@EvanDrellich: Farrell said Red Sox are ”hopeful“ Koji Uehara comes back in regular season. That implies some uncertainty.”
“@bradfo: Kimbrel to throw bullpen tomm. Hopes to have two bullpens before West Coast trip. Sim game might be next. Sounds like progressing quickly.”
“@EvanDrellich: Farrell said Red Sox are ”hopeful“ Koji Uehara comes back in regular season. That implies some uncertainty.”
“@bradfo: Kimbrel to throw bullpen tomm. Hopes to have two bullpens before West Coast trip. Sim game might be next. Sounds like progressing quickly.”
Went from a month to hopeful for regular season comeback for Koji?
Sounds good about Kimbrel.
Layne has now retired exactly 3 of the last 9 batters he's faced (over three appearances).
Hembree has now retired 2 of the last 11 (also over three appearances).
That...just doesn't happen.
Hembree has now retired 2 of the last 11 (also over three appearances).
That...just doesn't happen.
In his 7 relief appearances, Kelly has only given up runs in one (his second), but he is giving up a lot of hits (at least one hit in all but 2 appearances). In 9 innings from the pen, he does have 14:2 K:BB. So, he isn't walking a lot of guys.
The way the pen is going, I don't see why not go to Kelly. He isn't Mariano Rivera out there, but he has to be better/as good as what we currently are trotting ot there
The way the pen is going, I don't see why not go to Kelly. He isn't Mariano Rivera out there, but he has to be better/as good as what we currently are trotting ot there
I have slightly more than zero confidence in Kelly, but agree with the second sentence above. Not much to lose giving him one last shot at redemption.
Sadly, he doesn't. I know that Hembree was awful last night, bad this week, and mediocre this month, but there is no reason to believe that Kelly has to be any better.
If anyone should be cut loose for Kelly, it's Clay, not Hembree. Hembree's had a bad week, Clay's been awful all season.
You could play that game with Kelly as well, who in August and September had a 3 ERA in his final 9 starts.
I'm no glamouring for Kelly by any means, but he was sent to the minors and moved to the bullpen to see how he would transition. He appears to be doing OK, he's striking out a lot of guys, not walking many and not giving up a ton of runs. He also has a (spotty) track record of getting major league hitters out, which not many guys in AAA have.
Also, per rotoworld:
Red Sox recalled RHP Joe Kelly from Triple-A Pawtucket.
Kelly tossed five scoreless innings with a 9/1 K/BB ratio since being moved to Pawtucket's bullpen. A relief role is probably where he's belonged all along, and he could be a weapon out of the 'pen.Jul 24 - 8:20 AM
Hembree can come back. If Clay goes he may be gone.
For better or worse, Clay is about the only guy who can pitch a start if we're in a pinch right now. Maybe Kelly, but we spent all this effort converting him. Clay is our number 6. That makes him worth keeping around. Maybe he becomes expendable when O'Sullivan is off the DL. But really the only difference between them is we've had much longer to learn to hate Clay.
Isn't Brian Johnson back in AAA? I'd rather give Owens or him or Cuevas another shot at it- managing the 25 man is trickier there though of course....
Buchholz (somewhat surprisingly) has a better FIP as a RP than Hembree (this year), FWIW.
Not worth much, IMO. It's SSS noise, and FIP doesn't tell the whole story. Are you saying you're more confident in Clay as a RP in general than Hembree?
If you want a large sample size, we could use Clay's 4.02 Career ERA (4.05 FIP). He seems to be adjusting well to life in the bullpen, even if he's overpaid and not happy in that role. So, I have a little more confidence in Clay than Hembree.
Not sure I'd make the latter decree, but I'm not a ton LESS confident in Clay than Hembree. Not enough to overcome the fact Hembree had options and Buchholz didn't.
And like what @phenweigh said -- over their careers, Buchholz has been the better pitcher. Over the last few outings, Buchholz has been the better pitcher. Over the 3-4 month sample size of 2016, Hembree is the better pitcher. Where to draw the line?
Also-also, completely from the eye-test the last couple outings, but 95-96 mph 4-seamer + cutter + curve Clay could be an interesting bullpen arm. If the Sox really aren't desperate to move him and are actually willing to pitch him (even in low-medium leverage spots) for the next week, I wouldn't hate seeing what that stuff looks like a little more. Could save us from having to expend energy to acquire another 7th inning guy since we're paying the rest of his contract no matter where he pitches.
I am intrigued by Clay in the bullpen. He was hurt badly by misplays in the OF last time out against the Twins, but looked like he had 3 pitches going for him--fastball at around 94 with life, effective curve, changeup that got swings and misses (even when it was up in the zone, it looked like he was fooling guys). I'm not saying he's a high leverage guy right now, but I'd be interested to see what he can do in middle relief and take it from there. Of course, always possible it doesn't pan out.
I wouldn't be so sanguine about Buchholz the reliever. His velocity was good, but his location was downright awful. This charts shows a lot of pitches above the belt and right down the middle. Martinez failed to make the RF warning track catch, so blame the fielder to be sure, but the ball was hit a long, long way.
true. I noticed some changeups up in the zone, so I guess that is a warning sign even though he still got swings and misses. Thanks for the additional data...location was clearly more of a problem than I thought...I wouldn't be so sanguine about Buchholz the reliever. His velocity was good, but his location was downright awful. This charts shows a lot of pitches above the belt and right down the middle. Martinez failed to make the RF warning track catch, so blame the fielder to be sure, but the ball was hit a long, long way.
At what point do you look at a guy with zero consistency over the course of his career and think citing the career numbers as a whole is a solid argument? I don't think I've ever seen a more up-and-down pitcher numbers wise than Clay. I don't know if I'm the only one, but it's been a decade. I'm sick of what Clay "could be", regardless of the role. Hembree has a clear effective role on the team as a ROOGY.
I get it. You hate Clay. He's been inconsistent, and you choose to focus on the down and ignore the up.
Unless a guy is toast because of age or injury, career numbers with some reasonable downward adjustment for aging is the best we can do. Clay doesn't look toasted to me. I hope we don't see him starting again, but I think Clay can provide value in a middle relief role, and it's more than reasonable to send a struggling ROOGY with options to Pawtucket rather than DFA Clay.
This is true. Past be damned. I agree that Hembree is probably the "better pitcher" right now. Ain't saying much, but its true.
But, it's also true, for better or worse, that Buchholz is the *only* guy in the organization right now who even has a ghost of a chance of starting a major league game competently should one of the 5 starters go down.
"Zero consistency" (even from pitch to pitch) sugests that it *could* happen on occasion. I see it as different than "zero chance," which, IMO, is what all the other possible emergency starters -- Owens, Elias, Johnson -- give. Maybe SOS if he's healthy can be counted on for twice through the lineup (which translates to 5 innings with 3 baserunners). And since Buchholz has no options and Hembree does . . .
Not all moves are referenda on some overarching question like "Will Clay ever pitch to his potential?" Sometimes its just about what's more useful (and possible, given rostering rules) right now, or this week.
I still stand by what I said, if you think "career numbers with some reasonable downward adjustment for aging" is reasonable when looking at Buchholz, we're never going to agree. The dude is peaks and valleys personified, and I don't see anything behind the idea that he can provide positive value in a middle relief role. A guy who is dominant against RHH in short stints is a useful major league piece, a guy with serious consistency and injury issues over a 10 year sample size who is on a serious downward trend is much less so.
Not only is Clay one injury away from making a start.....Hembree had also pitched 3 of the last 4 days so bringing Kelly's fresh arm up also added an available bullpen arm for 2 of the next 3 games that Hembree wouldn't have been available.
I think calling Hembree dominant against RHH is a dubious conclusion based on SSS, and regardless I don't think such a guy is very useful anyway. How many ROOGYs are there in MLB? Wouldn't ROOGYs litter the rosters of MLB teams if they were useful? (I truthfully don't know, but my impression is very few, if any. I seem to recall a study concluding that ROOGYs don't really exist, but I don't trust my memory.)
I think you're right about ROOGYs, although my PI subscription expired so I can't really confirm. I can't think of many relievers used as ROOGYs - they're mostly just considered good relievers who have trouble with lefties. I think It's kind of like how you hear about RHH who "mash lefties," but you don't really hear as much about guys who "mash righties." Because those guys are more or less just everyday players.
I agree that it's too early to call Hembree officially "dominant against RHH" at this point, but if Hembree turns out to be a pitcher who is dominant against RHH, I think that would be pretty useful as a middle reliever. Just straight-up not being terrible against everyone is a skill that manages to elude many a Red Sox pitcher. I'm agnostic on whether he's more useful than Buchholz long-term, but in terms of rest-of-season 2016, I trust Hembree slightly more, despite their WHIPs being identical.
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http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/07/28/koji-uehara-might-out-for-season/PHY25HTuEmrDsfIKick1HP/story.html
Red Sox manager John Farrell acknowledged the team is planning for the idea that Uehara, 41, will not return this season.
“At this point, that’s an unknown, his return date,” Farrell said Thursday night before the Red Sox played the Angels
Red Sox manager John Farrell acknowledged the team is planning for the idea that Uehara, 41, will not return this season.
“At this point, that’s an unknown, his return date,” Farrell said Thursday night before the Red Sox played the Angels
I will never understand why Ben didn't trade him in 2014. The haul would have been amazing and there was zero to gain by keeping Koji. Do not make the same mistake with Buchholz.
The sox should try and find a low cost arm or give Light some extended innings in the bigs and see how he does.
Because the team won in 2013 and thought they might win again and he was a lights out closer and they didn't have anyone else ready to be the closer and you don't really get an amazing haul for an almost 40 year old closer?
Methinks that if the haul would have indeed been amazing for Koji in 2014, they'd have pulled the trigger. In a deadline situation in which they jettisoned 4/5 of the original starting rotation, keeping a free-agent-to-be closer through the end of a lost season makes little sense unless there just wasn't enough of a market for moving him to be worthwhile.
Closest analog might be the David Wells for Kotteras trade. Maybe Koji brings slightly more, but probably not a haul.