Worth the Price of Admission?

Darnell's Son

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We're through the halfway point of the season and David Price has been lackluster at best. From iayork's own words:
David Price hasn’t been terrible this year, but he certainly hasn’t been the ace the Red Sox expected to get for their 7-year, $217 million contract. His ERA of 4.74 as of the end of June puts him at just 73rd of 98 qualifying pitchers.
However...
His FIP (3.59) and xFIP (3.28) are better, putting him at 28th and 7th respectively, suggesting that he has had some bad luck. However, not all his of poor results can be blamed on bad luck. Can we see any particular issues with his pitches?
You can read on here, it's filled with the usual great graphics and data.
 

twibnotes

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Bumping this thread...seems like a hugely important topic as it relates to both the short- and long-term fate of our beloved Sox.

A few questions to spur the discussion...

- were there any signs last year that Price could be losing his velocity and effectiveness?

- can he find a way to be a legit "ace" if what we are seeing is in fact who he is now?
 

Doooweeeey!

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I'm not a huge stats guy but I think he's trying too hard to strike guys out with lesser stuff.
His K/9 went up and H/9 went down significantly in Toronto after being close to his career norms in Detroit.
In Boston his K/9 is even better than in Detroit but his H/9 has come up at the same time.
Is he trying to be the guy he was in Toronto?

Edit: wording.
 
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Tyrone Biggums

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Here's what I see with Price. His K's are up and his velocity isn't down. The stuff is still there. Which is a very positive sign. What this tells me is that maybe it's a mental thing to show he's worth 30 million a year. A good manager could probably keep him focused. John Farrell is unfortunately not a good manager.
 

OptimusPapi

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Or he is having issues in his personal life we are not privy to, or Boston is a scary city, or a thousand other reasons he can't regain focus that doesn't have to do with JF. Do we really have to rehash this debate for the hundredth time since the season started?
 

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Here's what I see with Price. His K's are up and his velocity isn't down. The stuff is still there. Which is a very positive sign. What this tells me is that maybe it's a mental thing to show he's worth 30 million a year. A good manager could probably keep him focused. John Farrell is unfortunately not a good manager.
Sort of like Samarzija with the Giants.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Or he is having issues in his personal life we are not privy to, or Boston is a scary city, or a thousand other reasons he can't regain focus that doesn't have to do with JF. Do we really have to rehash this debate for the hundredth time since the season started?
I could see that however, it's been a trend all year. Not just with Price but everyone. Price went back to an older delivery that didn't work and it took Pedroia to see a flaw. Farrell couldn't catch any flaws with anyone on this staff. If the debate keeps coming up then maybe there is something to it. I just don't have a lot of faith in this team and this staff to keep a guy who might be overwhelmed level headed.
 

PapaSox

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I think it's all in his head. Pedro & Schilling could deal with Boston but I think Price is having a bit of trouble. Tampa, Toronto and Detroit are not Boston. Too many minds (Last Samurai)
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Or he is having issues in his personal life we are not privy to, or Boston is a scary city, or a thousand other reasons he can't regain focus that doesn't have to do with JF. Do we really have to rehash this debate for the hundredth time since the season started?
Boston is a scary city? The guy spent a year in friggin Detroit.
 

OptimusPapi

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Boston is a scary city? The guy spent a year in friggin Detroit.
That made me laugh. Nothing makes you appreciate pitching like almost getting murder or carjacked on the way to the stadium. I was trying to highlight the silliness of blaming Prices struggles on the manager and bringing up a debate that has been covered in a bunch of other threads
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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After last night, the Red Sox now hold an even 11-11 record in games started by David Price.

W-L isn't a good way to judge pitchers, but the team plays .500 ball when he starts, and his ERA is 0.03 worse than the AL average of 4.23 even after last night's dominance. He hasn't remotely pitched like a dominant ace. He's been an average pitcher, with average results.

And for all the concerns about luck, Price's season was front-loaded with it, when the team went 8-3 in his starts through the end of May, despite his 5.11 ERA.
 

Youkilis vs Wild

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Boston is a scary city? The guy spent a year in friggin Detroit.
I think there's a pretty decent precedent at this point, post-Schilling, for high-profile pitchers taking a year to adjust to Boston. Beckett, Porcello, and even Daisuke have been noticeably better in Year 2 than Year 1. (Daisuke, of course, reverted pretty hard after that, and benefited big-time in 2008 from luck.)
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I think there's a pretty decent precedent at this point, post-Schilling, for high-profile pitchers taking a year to adjust to Boston. Beckett, Porcello, and even Daisuke have been noticeably better in Year 2 than Year 1. (Daisuke, of course, reverted pretty hard after that, and benefited big-time in 2008 from luck.)
This is ludicrous. Even if your facts were true, the difference would still be expected to have less than nothing to do with the city, or the region, around Boston.

And your facts aren't true.

The number of in-their-prime MLB star pitchers who Boston has brought over from another team since 2004 is exactly three: Beckett, Lackey, and Price. Beckett see-sawed back and forth pretty much every other year; Lackey sucked when he was hurt and was good when his arm was healthy, and it's too soon to tell about Price.

Peavy's a close call for a fourth such pitcher, but he pitched better in red socks than white, when he was first acquired.

The narrative of "can't pitch in Boston" needs to die and get buried alongside Tom and Jean Yawkey.
 

PapaSox

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This is ludicrous. Even if your facts were true, the difference would still be expected to have less than nothing to do with the city, or the region, around Boston.

And your facts aren't true.

The number of in-their-prime MLB star pitchers who Boston has brought over from another team since 2004 is exactly three: Beckett, Lackey, and Price. Beckett see-sawed back and forth pretty much every other year; Lackey sucked when he was hurt and was good when his arm was healthy, and it's too soon to tell about Price.

Peavy's a close call for a fourth such pitcher, but he pitched better in red socks than white, when he was first acquired.

The narrative of "can't pitch in Boston" needs to die and get buried alongside Tom and Jean Yawkey.
I think you miss the point. No one said these guys couldn't pitch. The thought is that Price is a good pitcher but Boston can be tough on someone expected to be the new hero. Its a head thing and nothing to do with abilities.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I think you miss the point. No one said these guys couldn't pitch. The thought is that Price is a good pitcher but Boston can be tough on someone expected to be the new hero. Its a head thing and nothing to do with abilities.
Give me a break.

It's not a head thing, or anything at all. It's a fiction created and propagated by the knights of the keyboard and the stooges of sports talk radio looking to drum up controversy about "mental weakness" and puff up their own (and their consumers') sense of self-importance in a drive for ratings.

The last pitcher who I can recall actually having a negative view of pitching in Boston was David Wells, and that was 11 seasons ago.
 

lexrageorge

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Price's BABIP by month:

April: 0.386
May: 0.296
June: 0.324
July: 0.377

Sometimes bad luck actually happens.
 

Harry Hooper

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Price's BABIP by month:

April: 0.386
May: 0.296
June: 0.324
July: 0.377

Sometimes bad luck actually happens.

Yeah, and sometimes your mistakes get fouled off.He's still serving up crushable pitches too frequently, even in reasonable starts.
 

scotian1

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With David Price there is historical evidence that when he loses it, he does so fast. Last night reminded me of the second game in the ALCS series vs the Royals last fall. Price had thrown 6 scoreless innings retiring 18 Royals in a row and then came the 7th inning. Five hits and five runs later, Price had given up the lead and the game. To me this should be a consideration in all things Price.
 

Rico Guapo

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With David Price there is historical evidence that when he loses it, he does so fast. Last night reminded me of the second game in the ALCS series vs the Royals last fall. Price had thrown 6 scoreless innings retiring 18 Royals in a row and then came the 7th inning. Five hits and five runs later, Price had given up the lead and the game. To me this should be a consideration in all things Price.
Tell that to Forrest Gump...

"The way he was throwing the ball," manager John Farrell said, "I'm thinking he was probably looking at a potential shutout."
 

moondog80

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With David Price there is historical evidence that when he loses it, he does so fast. Last night reminded me of the second game in the ALCS series vs the Royals last fall. Price had thrown 6 scoreless innings retiring 18 Royals in a row and then came the 7th inning. Five hits and five runs later, Price had given up the lead and the game. To me this should be a consideration in all things Price.
Did he give up 3 soft singles because he lost it?
 

DJnVa

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Did he give up 3 soft singles because he lost it?
No shit. It's baseball. Earlier in game someone hits a bullet right at Aaron Hill. In the 8th, a guy hits a blooper that JB can't get to. Price pitched really well, and we're in good shape if he keeps it up.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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With David Price there is historical evidence that when he loses it, he does so fast. Last night reminded me of the second game in the ALCS series vs the Royals last fall. Price had thrown 6 scoreless innings retiring 18 Royals in a row and then came the 7th inning. Five hits and five runs later, Price had given up the lead and the game. To me this should be a consideration in all things Price.
Is "historical evidence" in this case "a data set that demonstrates his tendency to fall off a cliff after X number of pitches," or "I remember when this happened once before?"
 

Harry Hooper

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This applies not just to Price, but in defense of Farrell no one in the dugout is allowed to watch a tv screen to see how a pitcher is doing in terms of location/command. As a result there is a certain "what are the batters telling you" dynamic, which tends to the reactive {vs. proactive} side of things.
 

DJnVa

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Is "historical evidence" in this case "a data set that demonstrates his tendency to fall off a cliff after X number of pitches," or "I remember when this happened once before?"
But even falling off after a set number of pitches isn't "when he loses it, he loses it in a hurry" because that description is so vague--implosions are easy to remember.

And which pitchers lose it slowly? What's the definition? And a few weeks ago the talk was you have to get Price early, cuz then he settles. So it seems the narrative of whoever wants to argue against Price is determined by whatever happened yesterday.

Anyway, here's his career splits: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=priceda01&year=Career&t=p and they have stats by inning and after certain pitch numbers and number of times facing someone.

And FWIW, Price's best numbers come on pitches 76-100.
 

TheoShmeo

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If you could hit the undo button right now on the signing, would you? I don't think it's an easy no.....
 

DJnVa

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If you could hit the undo button right now on the signing, would you? I don't think it's an easy no.....
It is for most rational folks. But considering the audience here, your last sentence still makes sense.
 

scotian1

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Is it true now that the Sox have a losing record in the games that Price has started this season? When does the reply; "I need to pitch better" become tiresome.
 
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TheoShmeo

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It is for most rational folks. But considering the audience here, your last sentence still makes sense.
At the risk of being irrational, I note:

- He is clearly not pitching like a $30 mm pitcher this year and I don't see a lot of reason to believe that will change in 2016 (notwithstanding the last two mostly strong outings);

- There's a chance at least that the pressure of pitching in Boston is getting to him and will continue to do so;

- Part of his problem, it seems, is a diminished fast ball, and that may get worse as the years move along;

- Ha has not shown signs thus far of being a guy who will be able to compensate for lost velocity with pinpoint accuracy and great secondary pitches;

- Most big contracts are more valuable to the team in the earlier years than the later years...if Price does not opt out, there's a decent chance his contract could be an albatross in the later years.

I'm far from a Price Hater and as I said or implied, I do not think the answer to my question is obvious either way. But if you do, I'd love to hear more than the one liner you just offered as to why that is so.
 

SouthernBoSox

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It's just been a super weird year. My eyes tell me he's the same pitcher he's always been. I just don't see a difference. The strikeouts are there, the walks are where they need to be, the stuff seems crisp and all of the advanced metrics say this is basically the exact same guy he's always been.

I know the sample size is growing and growing but there's still a good chance this is just a snake bitten pitcher who seems to have everything working against him.
 

SouthernBoSox

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The "pressure in Boston" stuff needs to stop, it's so nonsensical.

His FIP and xFIP are perfectly in line with career numbers and a full run below his ERA. "Pressue" doesn't cause that. It really just can't sustain itself long term. Regression is needed.
 

phenweigh

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FWIW, I don't think it was anything to do with pitching in Boston ... Price pitched in pennant races and was used to pressure environments. I do think there is something to the idea that there is a psychological weight when pitching with a mega-contract that takes some getting used to. Lester talked about it when he went to the Cubs. Until the eighth inning yesterday and considering other recent starts, it seemed like Price had made the adjustment and was pitching like the ace the Sox signed. The eighth? ... probably a combination of his leg getting sore and affecting his command and "it's baseball, rallies sometimes happen against good pitches." I'm bullish on Price going forward.
 

joe dokes

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Is it true now that the Sox have a losing record in the games that Price has started this season? When does the reply; "I need to pitch better" become tiresome.
What would you prefer that Price say that wouldn't be "tiresome." "Fire Farrell"? "Asshole Abad"? "Thanks Dumbrowski"?
 

Harry Hooper

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And FWIW, Price's best numbers come on pitches 76-100.
This is a biased sample, of course, since he pitches deeper into games when doing well.

It's just been a super weird year. My eyes tell me he's the same pitcher he's always been. I just don't see a difference. The strikeouts are there, the walks are where they need to be, the stuff seems crisp and all of the advanced metrics say this is basically the exact same guy he's always been.

I know the sample size is growing and growing but there's still a good chance this is just a snake bitten pitcher who seems to have everything working against him.
He's displaying generally good stuff (great command all around the strike zone in first 5 innings or so last night), but as previously noted he's mixing in too many clunker pitches this season. He's so talented that it's not like he shows common problems like walking more batters. He gets wild in the heart of the strike zone too often. Without an exhaustive film review, I can't say for certain whether this is a new thing for him or he just used to get away with it more when he had his peak velocity. I suspect it's the former, however. It probably wouldn't hurt if he made batters move their feet more often.
 

LesterFan

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Is it true now that the Sox have a losing record in the games that Price has started this season? When does the reply; "I need to pitch better" become tiresome.
Yes, Red Sox are now 11-12 in games started by Price and are 3-9 in his starts since June. However, Price has pitched well in many of those losses.

6/3 vs Toronto: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 SO, Sox lose 5-2
6/8 vs SF Giants: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, Sox lose 2-1
6/14 vs Baltimore: 8 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 11 SO, Sox lose 3-2
7/5 vs Texas: 8 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO, Sox lose 7-2
7/28 vs LAA: 8 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, Sox lose 2-1

And then of course there's last night where we can all agree he looked pretty good until the 8th where he gave up a homer and a couple of 70 MPH singles. The homer ABad gave up makes his pitching line look worse than what it was. As a whole, including the game last night, the team has gone 0-6 in games started by Price in which he's gone: 46 IP, 2.74 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP, 8 BB/45 SO. The offense scored more than 2 runs just once during this stretch, which was 4 last night. So while Price has definitely had his fair share of disappointing starts, he's also had plenty of great ones that have gone to waste.
 

DJnVa

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This is a biased sample, of course, since he pitches deeper into games when doing well.
I know. That's kind of my point. He was pitching great last night. Until he wasn't. But even that wasn't horrible. Up 4-0 he tried to sneak a breaking pitch past a guy he's dominated and for some reason that hitter was apparently looking for it and ripped it. Then a soft single and we're off....
 

ifmanis5

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MLB Network had a good graphic of showing where on the mound Price was starting his windup from. He's used a bunch of different spots and hasn't found a comfort zone yet. It's like he's forgotten how to be himself.
 

soxhop411

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I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox skip his next start. Give him a "breather" or whatever teams call skipping the start of a struggling pitcher. Spend some extra time in the BP to fix whatever issues he has
 

nothumb

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I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox skip his next start. Give him a "breather" or whatever teams call skipping the start of a struggling pitcher.
They're in the middle of a pretty hellish stretch schedule-wise, I can't see giving your alleged horse a breather just to bring up Roenis Elias or give Clay a spot start or whatever.
 

rembrat

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I don't think it comes down to where he holds his hands or what side of the rubber he's on or what the defense does behind him or what the offense does for him... It might simply be a down year. They happen all the time.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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But if Price continues to struggle I would think the Sox would at least consider skipping him once in the rotation so he can spend more time fixing his issues with the pitching coach.
Skip him in favor of who, though? That's the issue, not whether Price could use a breather or if it would help or not. The alternative, in the heat of a pennant race, is Buchholz (who probably isn't stretched out enough to give them more than 60-70 pitches) or calling up Elias or Owens or Johnson. Not all that appealing. And if you think they can utilize a scheduled off-day to skip him, the next one is September 1. He should make four more starts by then. If he still needs a "breather" to fix himself at that point, the team might be sunk anyway.