Pitching Targets

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Sure, relatively speaking the posting so far hasn't been too crazy, but what matches Gallo and Profar from the Red Sox? How do you match that value without touching the major league roster? Moncada and Benintendi is close, but not quite there. Moncada is a better prospect than Gallo, but not by much. And Profar is a more valuable chip than Benintendi. What do you add to that to make up the remaining gap? Kopech would probably be required to clearly beat it. If the Rangers aren't willing to go that far, then you probably just need to match it, but what works there?

Could be Moncada and Swihart. Do you do that for Sale? What about Quintana? Would you add to that? Is Chicago interested in Swihart at all right now given his injury? Moncada, Devers and Kopech? If that's the best offer I have for Quintana at the deadline, I probably do it, but I'm not sure about Sale. It's tempting, and could be enough. But that leaves the Sox with Benintendi and Groome and... well, some injured kids.

Moncada and a B lister or two isn't getting done. If they can convince Chicago to part with one of those two pitchers, it's going to hurt. How much pain are you willing to endure?
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,399
Yoknapatawpha County
I don't know. I do know that the White Sox are widely trumpeting their being open to trading one or both which immediately makes it different than the Stanton situation, and that just because they *could* also keep them and build around them does not, particularly in light of tangible evidence to the contrary, make that possibility worth bludgeoning those discussing what Boston would realistically consider.

The White Sox would love to get Betts back. Boston isn't trading Betts, and CHW likely knows it. The debate is whether there's something that could work in that space and beat the competing offers.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
What trumpeting? I mean, here's what he said yesterday:

"We're not where we want to be," Hahn said. "We've spent a fair amount of time focusing on the here-now for the last few years, and it hasn't paid off as handsomely as we hoped. So we have to stay open-minded."

If they went the rebuild route, ace Chris Sale and fellow All-Star pitcher Jose Quintana would no doubt command high prices. But with team options, the White Sox have Sale under control through 2019 and Quintana through 2020.

"The notion of let's sell off everything because it's not working might be a little extreme, especially if you expect to be able to put yourself in position to have a perennial quality product in the window of control for some of these guys," Hahn said.
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/07/17/listen-rick-hahn-on-if-chris-sale-is-untouchable-trading-with-the-cubs-more/

That's far from throwing up the fire sale signs and he doesn't even specifically mention Sale's or Quintana's names. You can even say he's hinting at not wanting to move Sale or Quintana with his line about the window of control for some of his guys. He also said this last year...

“It really comes down to, at that point, doing what’s best for the White Sox,” Hahn said. “If we were to suddenly remove potential suitors from the market for our players, I don’t see how that necessarily enhances our ability to do what’s best for the White Sox.”

Illustrating his point that he’s considering all options, Hahn said that not even ace left-hander Chris Sale is an “untouchable” on the trade market — though he comes as close as you can get to that.

“We don’t have any untouchables,” Hahn said. “It’s simply the nature of the business, is we have to listen to any ideas any clubs have on any of our players. We wouldn’t be doing our job if we didn’t at least hear out the value of our guys. And who knows, perhaps someone might overwhelm you or surprise you with something that is simply too good to turn down and makes the franchise stronger for an extended period of time.

“At the same time, there are certainly guys that are far more difficult to move than others, far more more distasteful to move than others and ones that are fairly special, special type players that you expect to be part of this organization, that you’re privileged to have in the organization and expect to be part of this organization for a long time.”
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/17121892/chicago-white-sox-open-rebuild-not-interested-rentals

Which is exactly what I'm saying and is pretty similar to what Hahn is saying now. I don't see any of quotes where he is "trumpeting" a willingness to move Sale for the best package available right now. He's listening to offers to see if someone will overpay. The Mariners did that for years with King Felix. Dombrowski probably did it yesterday with Bogaerts and Betts. You always listen when teams ask about your most valuable assets.

And even if the White Sox are dead set on moving one or both for some reason, they are already asking another team for Gallo and Profar, so that nebulous space you keep pointing to between including Mookie and packaging unnamed pieces with Moncada is much closer to the include Mookie end of the spectrum. Since Mookie isn't moving, how do you close the gap between Moncada and the pair from Texas?

Gallo and Profar is currently the line. Discussing which fair value packages we'd be comfortable parting with that fall short of that line is spinning our wheels.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,275
Sure, relatively speaking the posting so far hasn't been too crazy, but what matches Gallo and Profar from the Red Sox? How do you match that value without touching the major league roster? Moncada and Benintendi is close, but not quite there. Moncada is a better prospect than Gallo, but not by much. And Profar is a more valuable chip than Benintendi. What do you add to that to make up the remaining gap? Kopech would probably be required to clearly beat it. If the Rangers aren't willing to go that far, then you probably just need to match it, but what works there?

Could be Moncada and Swihart. Do you do that for Sale? What about Quintana? Would you add to that? Is Chicago interested in Swihart at all right now given his injury? Moncada, Devers and Kopech? If that's the best offer I have for Quintana at the deadline, I probably do it, but I'm not sure about Sale. It's tempting, and could be enough. But that leaves the Sox with Benintendi and Groome and... well, some injured kids.

Moncada and a B lister or two isn't getting done. If they can convince Chicago to part with one of those two pitchers, it's going to hurt. How much pain are you willing to endure?

Isn't Moncada a good deal more valuable than Gallo? I thought the book was sort of out on Gallo and his massive strike out rate had brought his value down.
Maybe I am missing something with Gallo and Profar but the Shaw, Swihart, Devers, ERod and Kopech package seems like a more attractive package than Gallo and Profar
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,399
Yoknapatawpha County
What trumpeting? I mean, here's what he said yesterday:



http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/07/17/listen-rick-hahn-on-if-chris-sale-is-untouchable-trading-with-the-cubs-more/

That's far from throwing up the fire sale signs and he doesn't even specifically mention Sale's or Quintana's names. You can even say he's hinting at not wanting to move Sale or Quintana with his line about the window of control for some of his guys. He also said this last year...



http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/17121892/chicago-white-sox-open-rebuild-not-interested-rentals

Which is exactly what I'm saying and is pretty similar to what Hahn is saying now. I don't see any of quotes where he is "trumpeting" a willingness to move Sale for the best package available right now. He's listening to offers to see if someone will overpay. The Mariners did that for years with King Felix. Dombrowski probably did it yesterday with Bogaerts and Betts. You always listen when teams ask about your most valuable assets.

And even if the White Sox are dead set on moving one or both for some reason, they are already asking another team for Gallo and Profar, so that nebulous space you keep pointing to between including Mookie and packaging unnamed pieces with Moncada is much closer to the include Mookie end of the spectrum. Since Mookie isn't moving, how do you close the gap between Moncada and the pair from Texas?

Gallo and Profar is currently the line. Discussing which fair value packages we'd be comfortable parting with that fall short of that line is spinning our wheels.
I have no idea what you're even saying anymore, and have no idea how you can write that many words questioning me saying "...trumpeting their being open to trading one or both" with a straight face. Hahn was asked directly if anyone was untouchable, and he said "no."
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I have no idea what you're even saying anymore. Hahn was asked directly if anyone was untouchable, and he said "no."
Of course he said no. No one is ever truly untouchable. He said the same thing last year and somehow managed to not trade Sale then, either. What he said is a far cry from looking to move him for anything less than an overpay this trade deadline.
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,399
Yoknapatawpha County
Ok, all I am saying is that I no longer buy any of the Bs as a plausible trade target for a team looking to sell at the deadline. If Rick Hahn thinks of one of them as his baseline, it isnt happening. If he does look at it that way, then youve got a shot working around Moncada. Maybe he loves Moncada. The first ask of TEX isnt as convincing to me, and even then, as someone like Beane is an example of, it matters what CHW ends up liking and not what we think is better. We have limited info to speculate, which is why the discussion was well within the realm of reality from the start.

I agree it is a tremendous long shot and I expect CS and JQ to be White Sox on 8/2.
 
Last edited:

Brian26

New Member
Nov 16, 2015
22
The White Sox aren't going to send you Sale, one of the top three pitchers in baseball, a franchise player, signed to a ridiculously small team-friendly contract and a possible future HOFer, for a minor leaguer as the centerpiece of the deal who's never played one major league game. Moncada may turn out to be a future superstar, but there's certainly a fear that he may not amount to anything in the majors. He's unproven.

Also, the Sox aren't interested in Profar and Gallo for a number of reasons, so that's not going to happen.
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,399
Yoknapatawpha County
The White Sox aren't going to send you Sale, one of the top three pitchers in baseball, a franchise player, signed to a ridiculously small team-friendly contract and a possible future HOFer, for a minor leaguer as the centerpiece of the deal who's never played one major league game. Moncada may turn out to be a future superstar, but there's certainly a fear that he may not amount to anything in the majors. He's unproven.

Also, the Sox aren't interested in Profar and Gallo for a number of reasons, so that's not going to happen.
The White Sox are not going to get a 23 year old All Star, potential MVP-candidate OF under control until 2021 from a team looking to contend for Chris Sale. If they're looking for a Mookie Betts, they're not actually looking to trade him which, bully for them.

If they are actually looking to trade him and simply maximize the return, the best prospect in baseball in addition to a 23 year old LHP with big league success and an assortment of pieces from a top-level farm is also nothing to sniff at for a rebuild.

Kinda weird they'd ask for Profar and Gallo with no interest in them.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,479
Rogers Park
Sale has been pitching with his offspeed stuff this year to try to go deeper into games and deeper into the season. Don't read too much into the lower Ks.
Thank you.

The White Sox are not going to trade Chris Sale straight up for Betts, and they are not of the same value. That's crazy talk.
This is hardly gospel, but Dave Cameron at Fangraphs ranked Sale #15 in trade value and Betts #7. You might not agree, but it's not crazy.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,468
Somewhere
Dave Cameron just published his trade value prospectus. He's not the final authority on these matters, but I trust his opinion more than most:

Sale #15
Quintana #25

Betts #7
Bogaerts #20
Moncada #26
Bradley #28
Benintendi #38

For reference, Gallo rates an honorable mention, and Profar is not rated.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,468
Somewhere
This is hardly gospel, but Dave Cameron at Fangraphs ranked Sale #15 in trade value and Betts #7. You might not agree, but it's not crazy.
I would be pretty upset if the Red Sox traded Betts for any pitcher, even one as great as Sale. There's something to be said about the reliability of great everyday players, especially in light of Kershaw's recent injury.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Again, they asked for Gallo and Profar from Texas supposedly. That puts them in Marlins "shopping" Fernandez territory, which went nowhere fast. It's in their best interest to see if someone will go nuts. They're not giving him up for a prospect package built around Moncada, though. At least not one that doesn't completely gut the farm. That's all I'm saying. If we're gonna discuss it, discuss it realistically. The cost will be prohibitively high.
Unless I'm misunderstanding you, you're saying that the difference between Moncada and Profar + Gallo is so large that it would require multiple additional top prospects to make up the difference. Which seems odd. Isn't Moncada the most valuable single chip in that trio?
 

pdub

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2007
516
Not that I wouldn't love having Sale, but when do "super rotations" actually work out? I'm just thinking of the time when LAD had Kershaw and Greinke out-pitching the whole MLB, yet they still didn't win a World Series. And they don't look poised to win one any time soon even though they boast the largest payroll. I'd rather keep the lineup balanced and acquire decent depth pieces in both the rotation and bullpen. To me, Betts represents part of that balance. Trade him for Sale and you suddenly have to shift the whole lineup, the outfield, and the whole offensive mindset. He's too valuable to trade - even for Sale. Acquire more bullpen help and I think we're done. Price-Wright-Procello should be enough in any 3-game series. If it isn't, we have problems that require more fixing than a single trade deadline can offer.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
(I can't believe I'm saying this, but) It's too bad the Sox moved so quickly on Pomeranz; a package with Espinosa & Benintendi would be a very attractive start for Sale.

I would not include Moncada. Cameron mentioned that absolute top prospects are rarely traded (on the FG podcast) and there's a reason for that that doesn't show up on the trade value rankings: the overall potential value if he plays to his potential will exceede Sale, and probably in short order. The Sox have room for him on the IF and I wouldn't be surprised to see him pass Sale in the trade value rankings once he has a bit of a ML track record.

Conversely, pitchers still get hurt, and Sale's value takes a huge hit if he's on the shelf for a year and a half. I'm a bit wary of his declining K's in that context (especially with his mechanics); arguments to the contrary have a bit of a "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" whiff to them. I'd be worried that the Sox are buying into a Sonny Gray-type performance curve at its peak. I'd be willing to start a package with Benintendi, whose value diminishes in LF enough to offset the risk, but not at a price of the team's young core, in which I include Moncada
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,250
Postseason is notoriously small sample size. Dodgers have had that history of having little offense in the playoffs, and great offenses have done just enough vs even their best pitchers to keep them from a World Series this century.

You would hope our offense could support a "super rotation" enough even in the playoffs. But last night at mostly full strength, the 2nd-8th had no hits against the Twins - that's baseball in a one-game sample size. All you can do is maximize your odds of enough coming together in the short term - and a hopefully above average rotation like ours right now with Sale/Quintana swapping out ERod would absolutely do that.

But regardless Sale right now could cost Moncada, Benintendi, and one of the B's - absolutely no chance. I'm sure we sniffed around - every team would when the White Sox are listening right now - but the only remote chance I see is Quintana, and that probably is going nowhere as the White Sox could be asking for Moncada there too.

Fake edit: I knew someone would say we moved too quick on Pomeranz. You can't predict the potential drastic market shift, and the cost is going to be so exorbitant anyways that I doubt we'll see a blockbuster come Aug 1.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Notice I did preference my remark about my disbelief as well. I'm trying to get used to DD's no nonsense, straight to the heart of the matter approach, and I think he already had a sense of the cost of Sale and found it too high. That said message board opinions thrive in drastic changes to the market that are old news to top baseball officials.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Not that I wouldn't love having Sale, but when do "super rotations" actually work out?
Well the Mets got to the World Series last year with something close to a "super rotation," but nothing close to the offense the Sox have this year.

To me, Betts represents part of that balance. Trade him for Sale and you suddenly have to shift the whole lineup, the outfield, and the whole offensive mindset. He's too valuable to trade - even for Sale. Acquire more bullpen help and I think we're done.
No one here is seriously advocating trading Betts for Sale. People are debating Moncada, but not Betts. There is debate about "worth," but I don't think anyone here would trade Betts for Sale. The fact is, Betts isn't getting traded for anyone.

Price-Wright-Procello should be enough in any 3-game series. If it isn't, we have problems that require more fixing than a single trade deadline can offer.
Actually, if it isn't, it might be if one of those three is upgraded to Sale.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Gallo
Unless I'm misunderstanding you, you're saying that the difference between Moncada and Profar + Gallo is so large that it would require multiple additional top prospects to make up the difference. Which seems odd. Isn't Moncada the most valuable single chip in that trio?
Gallo and Profar have both been extremely highly rated prospects and Gallo still is. If you don't think there's a large gap between Moncada and the combination of Gallo and Profar, you are either underrating that pair or are overrating Moncada.

Yes, he's the most valuable single piece but the gap between him and Gallo isn't that large. Add in Profar who has pedigree and is performing at the major league level already and you've got some catching up to do if you are the Red Sox. Remember that Profar was a Bogaerts level prospect.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
I honestly think the gap between Beni and Gallo is much narrower than the gap between Moncada and Gallo.

Here are notable mid season prospect rankings for all three:
Baseball Prospectus: Moncada 2, Beni 11, Gallo 12
Baseball America - Moncada 3, Gallo 8, Beni 21
Keith Law has Beni at 3, Moncada at 5, but I can't see where he has Gallo since it's behind a paywall, but it's at least in the teens.
The SB Nation guys averages are: Moncada 2, Gallo 6, Beni 12

It's a consensus that Moncada is a top three guy. The other two guys, we're just going to butt heads on because they have such vastly different skill sets.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
15,069
UWS, NYC
Moncada, Beni, Devers, Groome & Kopech for Sale. That would be monumentally stupid.
"Five top prospects" is not the same as "the Red Sox top five prospects".

I'd imagine a prospective package might be more like Moncada, Owens, Marrero, Devers and Chavis. Not that I'd be looking to pull the trigger on that, either.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
It may be all true but do the Sox really want to go there?
Of course not, and as has been stated not all prospects are the same. The ChiSox are going to let some stuff leak to try to drive a bidding war, it's just good business.
I doubt Sale is moved and if he is I don't think it will be to the Sox. Of course I was way wrong on the Pomeranz deal so what do I know.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,094
Gallo


Gallo and Profar have both been extremely highly rated prospects and Gallo still is. If you don't think there's a large gap between Moncada and the combination of Gallo and Profar, you are either underrating that pair or are overrating Moncada.

Yes, he's the most valuable single piece but the gap between him and Gallo isn't that large. Add in Profar who has pedigree and is performing at the major league level already and you've got some catching up to do if you are the Red Sox. Remember that Profar was a Bogaerts level prospect.
Keep in mind Profar has only 3 years of club control left.
 

bosox1025

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,426
Jon Morosi reporting on Twitter that the scratch is reportedly not related to an illness...

Keep refreshing that Portland box score
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,312
The timing of this "incident" is very suspect. Not saying it's a fabrication, but what are the odds that it's directly related to trade talks?
If it's not related to a trade, it'd seem to affect his trade value, no? A clubhouse incident that results in him being sent home doesn't sound too enticing. Obviously a minor blemish given his ability and track record, but still I'm surprised they went public.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
If it's not related to a trade, it'd seem to affect his trade value, no? A clubhouse incident that results in him being sent home doesn't sound too enticing. Obviously a minor blemish given his ability and track record, but still I'm surprised they went public.
It won't affect his trade value one baseball worth.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,017
Oregon
It just shows that he's smart enough to be fed up with White Sox management