Has to be the Dodgers, who would have loved to get Groome at #20 and then go under-slot with their other first round picks.
Red Sox Select LHP Jason Groome 12th Overall
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The Dodgers and Groome can signal one another and "agree" to a deal, but if another team drafts him first, Groome's choices are to strike a deal with that team or re-enter he draft next year, at the risk of injury or sub-par performance hurting his stock. Years back, Matt Harringiton was picked 5th overall but didn't sign, came back next year but was picked 58th, against didn't sign and was picked in the 13th round the following year, still didn't sign, and ended up never making it out of the independent league.
Red Sox had a handshake deal with Porcello his draft year, until DD and DET swooped in and picked him ahead of us.
Jim Callis weighs in on Groome and says SD promised him $5 million if he made it to either 24 or 25.
San Diego hoped Groome would fall all the way to its pair of extra first-round picks at Nos. 24 and 25, and multiple industry sources say the Padres promised him a $5 million bonus if he got there. That didn't happen, with the Red Sox stepping in at No. 12. With a winning big league club that has a strong core of young talent, not to mention several blue-chip prospects rising through the Minors, it may be years before Boston has an opportunity to draft a player with as much upside as Groome.
I don't believe the Red Sox care what the Padres offered, and I don't think they're going to scrape together every dollar they can in their $6,997,400 bonus pool and just hand it to Groome. He'll likely get more than the $3,192,800 assigned pick value at No. 12, but Boston may get all of its other signings done and offer him whatever remains in its allocation. The Red Sox would get the No. 13 choice in the 2017 Draft if he doesn't sign, and I don't see them exceeding their pool by more than 5 percent to land him and forfeiting a future first-rounder as a penalty.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/184402554/pipeline-inbox-2016-mlb-draft-picks-on-rise?topicid=151437456
San Diego hoped Groome would fall all the way to its pair of extra first-round picks at Nos. 24 and 25, and multiple industry sources say the Padres promised him a $5 million bonus if he got there. That didn't happen, with the Red Sox stepping in at No. 12. With a winning big league club that has a strong core of young talent, not to mention several blue-chip prospects rising through the Minors, it may be years before Boston has an opportunity to draft a player with as much upside as Groome.
I don't believe the Red Sox care what the Padres offered, and I don't think they're going to scrape together every dollar they can in their $6,997,400 bonus pool and just hand it to Groome. He'll likely get more than the $3,192,800 assigned pick value at No. 12, but Boston may get all of its other signings done and offer him whatever remains in its allocation. The Red Sox would get the No. 13 choice in the 2017 Draft if he doesn't sign, and I don't see them exceeding their pool by more than 5 percent to land him and forfeiting a future first-rounder as a penalty.
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/184402554/pipeline-inbox-2016-mlb-draft-picks-on-rise?topicid=151437456
So the Sox can exceed their draft allotment, at the cost of losing a future first round pick? Seems like an easy choice since they're not likely to be picking 12th or worse again for a while, if that's what it takes to get it done and they conclude he's worth $5M
Random off topic question: Is it allowed to add a no trade clause to a minor league contract? I'm not aware of any ever, but is that because a team amd player have never wanted to do it, or that it can't be done.
Yes they can, but I think its an easy choice that having the 13th and, say, 30th pick next year is better than one high school arm this year. There's a reason no team has ever given up an additional pick under the new system. Unless you think Groome is the second coming of Strasburg, you stick to your offer and take the comp pick if he doesnt sign.
Plus everyone who seems to know such things will swear that the 2017 draft will be loaded with quality college pitchers. Sox won't want to miss out on that.
Room for Groome: http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/red-sox-agree-to-terms-with-four-2016.html
Significant savings on Scott and McLean.
Significant savings on Scott and McLean.
Keith Law talking about the Red Sox is like Sean Hannity talking about Barack Obama.
I love it when you talk out of your ass. Glad to see it permeates every subforum on the board.
Maybe you can cite something to show that - other than over a decade ago him questioning Pedroia. How often do you even read Law?
Maybe you can cite something to show that - other than over a decade ago him questioning Pedroia. How often do you even read Law?
Don't you know that Law had an incorrect scouting profile for Dustin Pedroia and has yet to grovel enough for our forgiveness?
Didn't we see video of the kid after the draft that showed the opposite of this? Either way, he's likely to sign at around $4 mil, which is what the Red Sox can offer. The potential positive payoff if everything goes his way next year and he goes back into the draft isn't so much more money that it's worth giving up a year of professional development.
This seems to be the right answer. If he can get 4 million this year and the best case next year is 6 or 7 million that's a huge gamble. Injury or ineffectiveness at the juco level could easily lose him millions.
I'd also be interested in how a year of juco affects the time-line of a top prospect. It seems possible that it could be likely to push back a players mlb debut - something that could cost a player 10s of millions in the long run (all theoretical of course since the most likely outcome for all prospects is a career in the minors).
Law slots him in at #5, as expected:
12. Jason Groome, LHP
Boston Red Sox
New No. 5 prospect
The Red Sox got the No. 2 prospect in the draft class, but he's not getting into their top four with Boston's elite quartet of prospects atop their system in Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, and Anderson Espinoza.
12. Jason Groome, LHP
Boston Red Sox
New No. 5 prospect
The Red Sox got the No. 2 prospect in the draft class, but he's not getting into their top four with Boston's elite quartet of prospects atop their system in Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, and Anderson Espinoza.
Not only is law fair about red Sox prospects he has done multiple Mia culpa on pedroia. He has brought it up multiple times as something he got really wrong.
He's been positive about groome and played down the supposed character issues. He's also said he things he will sign. Saying that he heard groome had an agreement if he fell with another team is not a criticism.
I can understand why people don't like him. I enjoy his chats and snark personally.
I think they are going to want a really good idea of how much Anderson, Dalbec, and Shawaryn cost before they really get engaged with Groome. They don't have a lot of time, but I think it helps explain the whole "not close" business.
At the end of the day, they may prefer Quintana and Shawaryn and a comp pick next year to Groome, for instance.
At the end of the day, they may prefer Quintana and Shawaryn and a comp pick next year to Groome, for instance.
1. Before July 15th it's absolutely clickbait bullshit to write about the Sox and Groome not being close
2. Quintana and Shawaryn and bumping back the pick a year is asinine to want over Groom. It's HORRIFYING that they would offer Shawaryn over slot (BY 40%???) that the Herald suggested. His arm is going to explode.
2. Quintana and Shawaryn and bumping back the pick a year is asinine to want over Groom. It's HORRIFYING that they would offer Shawaryn over slot (BY 40%???) that the Herald suggested. His arm is going to explode.
“@ChrisCotillo: Update on Groome/Red Sox: ”Large gap“ between sides at this point with Groome seeking top-4 money ($4.8M+): https://t.co/wz6tSx5NeX
Lot of posturing here over a 'workable" amount, maybe $750K? Groome can go play JC ball. He'll end up quite possibly getting picked about the same spot next year for about the same dough. I thought he really wanted to play for the Sox, a dream come true thing. Who blinks first?
Offer him 4... if 800 grand is too large of a gap, let him go. JC is fun, but how well does it pay?
Callis theorized that the Sox approach will be to sign the rest of their draft and then offer Groome as much as they can pay without losing a pick. It would be the epitome of making your best offer first.
I'm not a big fan of the slot values at the top of the round 1. It drops off so quick. When Groome is rumored to want top 4 money, how much of that is a hard line and how much in set up for negotiation. Because if it is really top 6 money it changes things dramatically in our favor. There's about a $1.2M difference b/w 4 and 6, and less than $1M difference b/w 6 and the Sox slot at 12. If he wanted to take a super hard "pay me or I'm going to JC" line, he'd be saying top 3 money. Anyway just putting some stuff here.
Looking at the slot values and how many picks you go before the slot is nearly half of the original value.
1. 9M
4. 4.4M
24. 2.2M
59. 1.1M
108. 550K
2016 Slot values (putting top 12 here)
1. Phillies: $9,015,000
2. Reds: $7,762,900
3. Braves: $6,510,800
4. Rockies: $5,258,700
5. Brewers: $4,382,200
6. Athletics: $4,069,200
7. Marlins: $3,756,300
8. Padres: $3,630,900
9. Tigers: $3,505,800
10. White Sox: $3,380,600
11. Mariners: $3,286,700
12. Red Sox: $3,192,800
Looking at the slot values and how many picks you go before the slot is nearly half of the original value.
1. 9M
4. 4.4M
24. 2.2M
59. 1.1M
108. 550K
2016 Slot values (putting top 12 here)
1. Phillies: $9,015,000
2. Reds: $7,762,900
3. Braves: $6,510,800
4. Rockies: $5,258,700
5. Brewers: $4,382,200
6. Athletics: $4,069,200
7. Marlins: $3,756,300
8. Padres: $3,630,900
9. Tigers: $3,505,800
10. White Sox: $3,380,600
11. Mariners: $3,286,700
12. Red Sox: $3,192,800
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Am I the only one to whom that seems like an incredibly perverse way to approach the situation they're in?
EDIT: I guess it could make sense if they have a very high confidence that Groome will sign when push comes to shove. I hope they're right.
How else can they approach it. The maximum amount of money that can be used to pay him comes from getting everyone else (top 10) signed. Otherwise, that money goes away and the 5% kicker goes to a lower number.
And if they can't sign him... then they can use their extra money to try to sign someone in the later rounds.
They don't really have much choice.
And if they can't sign him... then they can use their extra money to try to sign someone in the later rounds.
They don't really have much choice.
Or if they are quite confident he won't sign for what they can offer without penalty. If that's the case, offer the minimum to secure the pick next year, sign the later round bonus babies with their savings from elsewhere and then go into next year's draft with the #13 pick in a draft expected to be stocked with college arms. They could conceivably get just as good a pitcher who is closer to the majors as well. Otherwise they lose out on everyone.
I believe Callis' implication was including players drafted after the 10th round (Quintana, etc.) and then simply offer the remains, which he spitballed at around 3.5M, which to Savin's point, might not be the best approach if it means essentially prioritizing some of these late round lottery tickets over Groome.
But if he won't sign for slot + their savings on everyone else + 5% kicker, than you either use the savings to sign the later guys or you lose everyone. If you're not signing Groome in either scenario, why wouldn't you do your best to sign the Quintana types?
The order in which things happens impacts the calculations of this scenario though. Once they sign all of the rest of the first 10 rounds, they'll presumably have something like 1 million+ in overslot money to pay between Groome and any post-10th rounders. Let's say for the sake of argument that they have 900K remaining and all that remains to be signed is Groome and Quintana. Groome could certainly demand the entirety of that 900K, and it might be worthwhile from the Red Sox perspective (the certainty of signing Groome vs. the loss of Quintana). But if you do it the other way, and sign Quintana for say 600K, and then you can only offer Groome slot + 300K, from his perspective, that isn't as good an offer as the Red Sox could have made, so maybe he simply walks. Groome has to be the priority, and unless the FO is 1000% certain he'll sign in the end, I think they need to make a competitive offer to him rather than simply offering him the remainder after taking care of everyone else first.
I agree Groome should be the top priority, but if there is speculation that the Sox might take this route instead, I assume that is based in knowledge that Groome won't accept slot + the hypothetical $900k + 5%. I don't think Callis was suggesting this was strategy from jump street. I think this coming out is probably borne of reports of it not looking good for Groome to accept what they can offer without sacrificing next year's first rounder. And in that case, I say follow through and sign the guys you can.
Fake edit: I'm working off the assumption that they know what it would take to sign Quintana, etc and likely have handshake deals in place. Once they sign the remaining 1st rounders, they will leave the remaining offer on the table for Groome until minutes before the July 15th deadline and if he takes it, great, if not submit the minimum and sign the other guys.
Actually, IIRC Callis said that shortly after the draft (on the Sox Prospects podcast). It's not that Groome isn't the number one priority, just that the Sox aren't going to let him hold their draft hostage. It really comes down to if the difference between the extra overage they might give to Quintana is really enough of a difference between Groome signing and going to Juco. Given how the pool numbers shake out vs Groome's reported demands, its probably not.
And they've already made that choice, given that they drafted guys like Shawaryn and Dalbec as opposed to a couple of college seniors they could have gotten for 50K or less.
It may not be a bad strategy, signing as many as possible now, in that they can go into every negotiation with the premise that their priority is to sign their #1 and thus need to save every penny possible on every pick.
Sort of dovetails nicely with the "Red Sox don't pay their minor leaguers enough" thread. They're conspiring to hold down the payments to 3 very valuable assets based on a labor agreement to which those players had no input or choice to accept. The epitome of insiders screwing over outsiders that happens with all agreements between unions and politically protected crony capitalist businesses.
You could just as easily say they need to prioritize getting as many prospects on board as possible rather than putting all of their eggs in one basket.
If the Sox only have something like #5.5 or #6 money even if Groome wants something like #4 money, the ball is in his court. He dropped through no fault of the Sox, and his situation is what it is. It would be foolish for him to say no to $4m because everyone tells him he's worth $5-6, although one senses he hasn't been getting the best advice so far.
I don't think we substantially disagree here, I was more responding to the people that felt that the other players were more important. I agree that that they should be getting as close to four million as they can and make that offer. Because increasingly it looks like the alternative will be two top 20 picks next year.
“@KnuckleballFRS: Jason Groome and the #RedSox are in a stare down with a $3.5 million offer on the table, @JonHeyman reports: https://t.co/qhwzLJjRqV
If $4M is what the Sox can offer, it makes good tactical sense to wait until the eleventh hour to get there--make it seem like a concession and a win for Groome, rather than putting Groome in the position of giving in to take it.
With the slotting system in place that simply isn't the case. There is a set amount they can offer. If you put that amount out there now he'll either take it or he won't. If doesn't, you we're never going to be able to afford him. And if he says no you still have time to offer that money to other players holding out for a bit more like Dalbec or Shawaryn.
There Red Sox know what they can offer. Groome's camp knows what they can offer. Dalbec and Shawaryn aren't worth losing Groome over. Put your best offer on the table and make him decide if it's going to be enough to sign. Playing stupid games by upping it at the last second is how you lose a top of the draft talent and maybe the other two guys, too.
There Red Sox know what they can offer. Groome's camp knows what they can offer. Dalbec and Shawaryn aren't worth losing Groome over. Put your best offer on the table and make him decide if it's going to be enough to sign. Playing stupid games by upping it at the last second is how you lose a top of the draft talent and maybe the other two guys, too.