Pitching Targets

kazuneko

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So looks like the Dodgers just picked up Bud Norris for a couple of minor league relief prospects, neither of whom were highly ranked in their system. Norris has a 2.08 ERA (in 30.1 innings) while striking out nearly a batter an inning in June. He is hardly a Cy Young candidate but he is pitching well enough that he would have been a low cost upgrade for the Sox...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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So looks like the Dodgers just picked up Bud Norris for a couple of minor league relief prospects, neither of whom were highly ranked in their system. Norris has a 2.08 ERA (in 30.1 innings) while striking out nearly a batter an inning in June. He is hardly a Cy Young candidate but he is pitching well enough that he would have been a low cost upgrade for the Sox...
Norris was shit last year for the Orioles until they released him and so bad this April he was demoted to the bullpen for a month. Granted, he had a solid June once he returned to the Braves' rotation, but I'd hardly consider him an upgrade even with the state the Red Sox are in at the moment. The Braves were wise and fortunate to capitalize on his hot five-start stretch and get anything for him at all.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Assuming our current rotation is Price, Wright, Porcello, Buchholz, and either Elias or Kelly--as bad as the last three guys named there have been, I'm not sure Bud Norris is a reliable upgrade over any of them. Our pitching problem lies higher up the food chain than that.
 

soxhop411

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Frankly, the debate over John Farrell bores me.
The far more interesting question with the Red Sox is whether president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will trade one of the team's two top prospects, infielder Yoan Moncada or outfielder Andrew Benintendi.

Dombrowski needs to improve the Red Sox's rotation, which is sub-par under Farrell and would remain sub-par under Torey Lovullo or any other manager.

Not that Farrell should be safe if the team continues to sputter. I’ve always believed that there comes a tipping point when the manager’s becomes a distraction, almost suffocating the club. But the Sox are not at that point; in fact, they’ve rebounded nicely from Saturday’s humiliating 21-2 loss to the Angels with resounding back-to-back triumphs.

Dombrowski probably would prefer to be patient — he never had a chance to evaluate Farrell last season because the manager was undergoing treatment for cancer. Mercifully, Dombrowski does not appear to be conducting a Twitter or talk radio poll on whether to make a change — though, of course, the Red Sox's reactionary ownership might be.
Fix the pitching, then worry about the manager.
Some improvement might come from within — if left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez straightens out, if righties Joe Kelly and (ahem) Clay Buchholz prove assets in the bullpen. Athletics left-hander Rich Hill, who revived his career with the Red Sox last September, remains a perfect trade target. But the only way Dombrowski should move Moncada or Benintendi is if he can acquire the type of pitcher who does not currently appear to be available — a true, controllable ace.

Braves right-hander Julio Teheran is not at that level in the opinion of most in the industry. Neither is Athletics righty Sonny Gray nor Rays righty Chris Archer, at least not in their present forms.


Perhaps some team will fall out of the race in the next few weeks, creating new possibilities (the Mets and Matt Harvey would be a doozy). But both theCubs and Rangers have demonstrated the value of hoarding young position players and retaining depth, flexibility and athleticism. The Red Sox, already blessed with shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr., are in position to do the same.

Moncada, 21, has played second base exclusively in the minors, but he is the most complete player in the Sox's system and could be the long-term answer at third. Benintendi, who turns 22 on Wednesday, could be the everyday left fielder and serve as protection in center if Bradley got injured, with Betts remaining in right.\
Some with the Sox believe that Dombrowski is sold on Moncada becoming a superstar, and the universal feeling in the organization is that Benintendi will develop into a better all-around player than two other advanced young hitters, the Cubs' Kyle Schwarber and Mets' Michael Conforto.

The Sox routinely whiff on pitching prospects, but they haven't missed lately on young hitters —€“ Bogaerts and Bradley simply required patience, and the same might be true of Blake Swihart, who is out with a sprained right ankle.


Meanwhile, the chances of landing a top starter in a trade probably will be better in the offseason, when Harvey, the Marlins' Jose Fernandez and others might be more available.



Never mind that the Sox can use some good news at a time when their major-league team is struggling and baseball just imposed an international signing ban on the club for 2016-17 and voided the contracts of five Sox signees.



Dombrowski is too shrewd and too experienced to create a cheap headline, either by firing his manager or making a rash trade.
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/boston-red-sox-john-farrell-upgrade-rotation-070416
 

simplicio

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It's not often (never) that I find myself hoping Fox is right. Glad to hear that the rest of the industry isn't sold on Teheran or Gray either.
 

soxhop411

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It's not often (never) that I find myself hoping Fox is right. Glad to hear that the rest of the industry isn't sold on Teheran or Gray either.
Fox sports, especially Ken Rosenthal are the best in the biz. You can trust them
 

Rasputin

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Honestly, if Benintendi and Moncada can make a real difference as soon as 2018 the lineup could be devastating.

Benintendi Bradley Betts
Moncada Bogaerts Pedroia Ramirez

It almost doesn't matter who you have at DH and C.
 

DeadlySplitter

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if he hits like the past couple of weeks the rest of the way, there could be a market.

unlikely, yes. impossible, no
 

Maximus

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Thank God it seems like DD is sold on Moncada, I know I am FWIW. Moncada to 3rd, Shaw to 1st, Hanley to DH next year. I just wish he had added 2 starters in FA this year, like the Giants did instead of one with all their good positional talent already either in place or on the horizon (Moncada, Benintendi). I don't think he felt ownership could stomach 2 high priced FA starters in one year.
 
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Mighty Joe Young

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So .. Any thoughts on what it's going to take to get Rich Hill back from Oakland? He's strictly a rental on a one year cheap deal ($6m).

Obviously the big four should be off the table .. Likewise I can't see them trading Swihart at this point given Vazquez's struggles.

Considering Hill's arm could fall off at any time it shouldn't require a brinks truck full of prospects.

So which other prospects should get the job done ? Or you think the Sox would balk at? Would A Michael Kopech or Sam Travis for Hill be acceptable from both sides?
 

TimScribble

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Doubt Travis would go anywhere in a trade because of his injury.
 

dynomite

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So .. Any thoughts on what it's going to take to get Rich Hill back from Oakland? He's strictly a rental on a one year cheap deal ($6m).

Considering Hill's arm could fall off at any time it shouldn't require a brinks truck full of prospects.
He's also one of the most sought after targets in baseball at this deadline, for the reasons you cite. It's not clear what it will take to get him, but there's plenty of competition for the honor.

The A's are going to be able to set their price and see which team meets it.

"The Orioles, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Pirates and Royals were only some of the teams with scouts in attendance Saturday, according to a report from Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle."

http://www.scout.com/mlb/rumors/story/1683501-report-scouts-in-attendance-for-rich-hill
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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As good as Rich Hill has pitched since last September, I'd rather not see the Sox trade anything of note for him. Let someone else give away an asset or two for the privilege of having Hill on the roster when he turns back into a pumpkin (or gets hurt again). He hasn't topped 100 innings in 10 years, let alone the 150+ it's going to take to finish out the season. I don't trust he'll have the stamina to get to the end of August, let alone the end of the season and into the postseason.
 

the moops

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In order to entice the Rays to trade Moore in the division, you will need to give up both Moncada and Andrew last name I can't spell.
Matt Moore is 27 years old, only has one more year of team control, and owns a career ERA+ of 98. While they may be reluctant to trade within the division, they would certainly not be as brash as to ask for those two, for what is an average pitcher.
 

smastroyin

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I think the thing on Moore is that recent results may indicate he through his post injury adjustment and on his way back to being the guy he was before TJ surgery.

While I agree he's not likely to fetch 2 top prospects (honestly, I thought he was a bit overrated here even before his surgery) I don't think Rodriguez plus even a decent prospect really gets it done. It's a bad fit for Tampa since they have plenty of guys to fill their rotation in the near future that have higher upside than Rodriguez. In a straight up trade today I would happily take Archer, Moore, Snell, or Honeywelll, probably take Odorizzi or Andriese and frankly other than the possibility of needing 2016 performance, I would probably take my chance on Alex Cobb post TJS as well. Anyway I'm not trying to blast Rodriguez, he's still fine, it's just the Rays have plenty of starting pitching upside already.

It's too bad about Sam Travis, a Devers/Travis type thing might be workable. But probably not enough, and of course, Travis is injured. Swihart might be a good centerpiece, but also injured. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rays get a Benintendi level prospect for Moore. I'm just not of the opinion that the Sox are close enough to make that kind of present for future trade.
 

E5 Yaz

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Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
Red Sox will have Brian Bannister in uniform for the rest of the season to assist pitching coach Carl Willis before and after games. He will watch games from the clubhouse and be more hands-on with the pitchers. Bannister, a second-generation former big-league pitcher, was brought in last season in an analytical role. Played a big role in revival of Rich Hill's career.
 

Remagellan

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At this point I don't want the person who paid exorbitant financial and player assets to acquire Price and Kimbrel to waste any more on this season until we see if Bannister or anyone else can straighten out what we have on hand. Because if those two are going to continue to pitch below their reputations, no additions to this roster can make this team a serious contender for a World Series title----which is the only goal worth sacrificing our rich farm system for. It would be glorious to wrap Papi's career with another championship, but I wouldn't risk the future for the slim chance of providing a man with three rings with a fourth as a retirement gift.
 

Lowrielicious

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....providing a man with three rings with a fourth as a retirement gift.
I've seen this sentiment mentioned a lot when it comes to whether to make a push for the World Series this year with it being the big mans last go around.

The reason to push for another ring with Ortiz is not for him but because of him. 1.100 OPS so far this year.
.962 lifetime postseason OPS. Loves the big stage and can lift an offense on his back and carry the team through a postseason series.
1.948 OPS in the 2013 World Series.

He will leave an enormous sized hole in the lineup when he's gone.

If you think sacrificing assets to push this year is not worth it because Ortiz has enough rings already then you're nuts.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I've seen this sentiment mentioned a lot when it comes to whether to make a push for the World Series this year with it being the big mans last go around.

The reason to push for another ring with Ortiz is not for him but because of him. 1.100 OPS so far this year.
.962 lifetime postseason OPS. Loves the big stage and can lift an offense on his back and carry the team through a postseason series.
1.948 OPS in the 2013 World Series.

He will leave an enormous sized hole in the lineup when he's gone.

If you think sacrificing assets to push this year is not worth it because Ortiz has enough rings already then you're nuts.
I'm not sure how I feel about this (the "go for it year"). I can understand sacrificing one of the top four (but it damned better be better than Gray or Teheran!) for Ortiz in the way Lowrielicous mentions here. But I also can understand the crowd that sees adding Benintendi to LF, Moncado to 3rd, moving Shaw to 1st and Hanley to DH could make up for the loss- spreading the offensive talent across the lineup more.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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That said... That future lineup will still need pitching help and there's nothing in free agency or in the near term to help in '17-'19 which are the years we still have the Killer B's do something needs to be done via trade...
 
If Benintendi was ever on the table, I think it's time he wasn't;

Mookie Betts
2012 A- 71 GP 103 wRC+ (Age 19)
2013 A 76 GP 160 wRC+ (Age 20)
2013 A+ 51 GP 166 wRC+
2014 AA 54 GP 177 wRC+ (Age 21)
2014 AAA 45 GP 158 wRC+

Andrew Benintendi
2015 A- 35 GP 175 wRC+ (Age 20)
2015 A 19 GP 183 wRC+
2016 A+ 34 GP 170 wRC+ (Age 21)
2016 AA 43 GP 127 wRC+ (before last night's 2/4 with a HR and a 2B so probably more like mid 130s now)

He has a projected 287/338/450 rest of season line in MLB right now, according to Steamer, good for a 110 wRC+ (Mookie's career wRC+ is 122). Again, that'll be fractionally higher after last night. He's smoking the ball after a poor first couple of weeks at AA.

Are there any pitchers in baseball you'd be prepared to give up Mookie for straight up? No more than a couple, right? Certainly not Teheran. (Dave Cameron's trade value list will be coming out in the next couple of weeks and Mookie will be one of the top 10 most valuable players in baseball). Well, Andrew Benintendi is showing remarkably similar numbers to what Mookie put up, except he's moving through the system even faster (so admittedly, sample size is smaller). It's quite possible, given the situation at LF, that AB would be more valuable to the Sox this year than any pitcher he could bring back in a trade, let alone over the next half decade plus. Steamer would certainly suggest that.

No prospect is a sure thing. But man, if the college player of the year, a top 10 draft pick who is putting up 170+ wRC+ numbers consistently as he marches through the minor leagues isn't as close to a solid bet to be a good major leaguer as I've seen in the sox system then I don't know who is.

Also I have a fantasy of the Sox team being entirely made up of studs whose names begin with B.

Just say no.

(Edit: Added ages)
 
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Auger34

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If Benintendi was ever on the table, I think it's time he wasn't;

Mookie Betts
2012 A- 71 GP 103 wRC+
2013 A 76 GP 160 wRC+
2013 A+ 51 GP 166 wRC+
2014 AA 54 GP 177 wRC+
2014 AAA 45 GP 158 wRC+

Andrew Benintendi
2015 A- 35 GP 175 wRC+
2015 A 19 GP 183 wRC+
2016 A+ 34 GP 170 wRC+
2016 AA 43 GP 127 wRC+ (before last night's 2/4 with a HR and a 2B so probably more like mid 130s now)

He has a projected 287/338/450 rest of season line in MLB right now, according to Steamer, good for a 110 wRC+ (Mookie's career wRC+ is 122). Again, that'll be fractionally higher after last night. He's smoking the ball after a poor first couple of weeks at AA.

Are there any pitchers in baseball you'd be prepared to give up Mookie for straight up? No more than a couple, right? Certainly not Teheran. (Dave Cameron's trade value list will be coming out in the next couple of weeks and Mookie will be one of the top 10 most valuable players in baseball). Well, Andrew Benintendi is showing remarkably similar numbers to what Mookie put up, except he's moving through the system even faster (so admittedly, sample size is smaller). It's quite possible, given the situation at LF, that AB would be more valuable to the Sox this year than any pitcher he could bring back in a trade, let alone over the next half decade plus. Steamer would certainly suggest that.

No prospect is a sure thing. But man, if the college player of the year, a top 10 draft pick who is putting up 170+ wRC+ numbers consistently as he marches through the minor leagues isn't as close to a solid bet to be a good major leaguer as I've seen in the sox system then I don't know who is.

Also I have a fantasy of the Sox team being entirely made up of studs whose names begin with B.

Just say no.
Could you add their age for each season to the table? I believe Mookie was a full year younger while he was in AA/AAA. That doesn't diminish your point but does add some context to it.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Let's see what AB does at AAA before saying he has value this year to the MLB club. If AB continues to rake and LF is still kind of a hole, I can see a September call-up if the division race continues to be close, but I doubt he comes up in August.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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No prospect is a sure thing. But man, if the college player of the year, a top 10 draft pick who is putting up 170+ wRC+ numbers consistently as he marches through the minor leagues isn't as close to a solid bet to be a good major leaguer as I've seen in the sox system then I don't know who is.
The problem isn't whether Benintendi is a "sure thing" or not. It's that the Sox have multiple holes in the rotation right now, and only one "probable thing" on the pitching side of the upper minors. That's Rodriguez, and there's basically nobody standing between him and Espinoza.

And regarding "sure thing" college stars, here's another point of comparison:

Andrew Benintendi
2016 A+ 34 GP 170 wRC+
2016 AA 43 GP 127 wRC+ (before last night's 2/4 with a HR and a 2B so probably more like mid 130s now)

Jackie Bradley Jr
2011 A+ 67 GP 181wRC+
2012 AA 61 GP 127 wRC+
2013 AAA 80 GP 137 wRC+
2014 MLB 127 GP 46 wRC+

Of course, it's a minor miracle that JBJ is headed to the All-Star Game this season after that inexcusably terrible 2014 line. Even more miraculous is that he's headed to the All-Star Game this season as a Red Sox -- rather than us fans getting to enjoy the wait for Charlie Furbush to return to bolster the bullpen. Or whatever.

Assuming the risk of Benintendi scuffling at the MLB level is real, does that change your calculus on whether DDski should trade him to build a playoff-caliber team now and over the next three years, at which point the Sox might expect some of their young pitching to finally arrive?

I honestly don't have an answer.

But I know the injury to Sam Travis really crippled DDski's flexibility to add pitching mid-season, without moving either Moncada or Benintendi.
 
The problem isn't whether Benintendi is a "sure thing" or not. It's that the Sox have multiple holes in the rotation right now, and only one "probable thing" on the pitching side of the upper minors. That's Rodriguez, and there's basically nobody standing between him and Espinoza.

And regarding "sure thing" college stars, here's another point of comparison:

Andrew Benintendi
2016 A+ 34 GP 170 wRC+
2016 AA 43 GP 127 wRC+ (before last night's 2/4 with a HR and a 2B so probably more like mid 130s now)

Jackie Bradley Jr
2011 A+ 67 GP 181wRC+
2012 AA 61 GP 127 wRC+
2013 AAA 80 GP 137 wRC+
2014 MLB 127 GP 46 wRC+
I think many of us would be looking on aghast at what JBJ is doing this year if he were doing it for another team...I think JBJ emphasizes my point - which is that trading away guys that are showing the potential to be stars at a young age is really stupid if you're not getting the equivalent back. And Teheran isn't the equivalent back. Now if I believed Sale were available...

Assuming the risk of Benintendi scuffling at the MLB level is real, does that change your calculus on whether DDski should trade him to build a playoff-caliber team now and over the next three years, at which point the Sox might expect some of their young pitching to finally arrive?

I honestly don't have an answer.

But I know the injury to Sam Travis really crippled DDski's flexibility to add pitching mid-season, without moving either Moncada or Benintendi.
Of course the risk of him scuffing is real. Xander and JBJ both demonstrated how easily that can happen. But a number of people pointed out last year that Mookie was showing as a 4+ win player on the Fangraphs projection systems and that's a supremely valuable asset. I'm pointing out that AB is projecting at close to that level now too. Maybe he turns into another Mookie, maybe he doesn't. But regardless of holes in the rotation, flipping six years of that projection for a guy that Fangraphs thinks is a 2 win pitcher seems utterly foolish to me, especially if we're expected to throw in extra pieces.

My preferred alternative to Teheran, at least as a first try, is Aaron Wilkerson. Fangraphs depth charts have Teheran as a 3.67 ERA/3.91 FIP pitcher for the rest of this year. They have Wilkerson at 4.06/4.14. Surely worth a try?

FWIW, I don't expect AB to provide significant value this year. I'm merely pointing out the possibility given that Steamer thinks he's a better player than Teheran already.

To some extent DDski hurt his own flexibility when he traded four prospects for Craig Kimbrel (-0.11 WPA so far, which seems amazing given how dominant he can look). But I don't want to get into that discussion again.
 
Could you add their age for each season to the table? I believe Mookie was a full year younger while he was in AA/AAA. That doesn't diminish your point but does add some context to it.
I've added the ages. Apparently it's AB's birthday today. Happy Birthday him.

This is his age 21 season, which is the same age as Mookie at AA/AAA. So yes, Mookie was doing the same thing a little younger, albeit months rather than years.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Mookie was showing as a 4+ win player on the Fangraphs projection systems and that's a supremely valuable asset. I'm pointing out that AB is projecting at close to that level now too. Maybe he turns into another Mookie, maybe he doesn't. But regardless of holes in the rotation, flipping six years of that projection for a guy that Fangraphs thinks is a 2 win pitcher seems utterly foolish to me, especially if we're expected to throw in extra pieces.
In a vacuum, this is true.

However, acquiring Julio Teheran would replace the innings currently given to the worst starter. And no matter who that's been on the 2016 Boston Red Sox, that pitcher's been comfortably worse than replacement level.

Buchholz, Owens, and Elias have so far combined to start 17 games, which equals the average GS by Price (18), Porcello (17), and Wright (16). It is also equal to the amount of GS by Julio Teheran. So we're starting on a relatively equivalent comparative footing.

Price, Porcello, and Wright have averaged 2.0 fWAR {2.3, 1.7, 2.0}. Buchholz, Owens, and Elias have combined for -1.1 fWAR. Teheran is rated at 1.7 fWAR, which is a 2.8 fWAR swing, at mid-season. That's the same as Porcello, so let's call him a solid #3 starter.

In a vacuum, a team would never trade an asset like Benintendi for a solid #3 starter.

However, acquiring Teheran -- assuming the validity of fWAR comparisons -- would theoretically provide a +5.6 swing per 34 games over the so-called "production" of Buchholz, Owens, and Elias. And, Teheran is controlled for 4.5 years. And, the Sox have no prospects who project to be MLB-ready any time soon.

A "solid #3 starter" is not worth a prospect like Benintendi, but generating a +5.4 win swing over the next 4.5 years just might be.
 

E5 Yaz

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Unless Teheran gets to Boston and we discover he can't pitch under pressure against American League lineups
 
In a vacuum, this is true.

Price, Porcello, and Wright have averaged 2.0 fWAR {2.3, 1.7, 2.0}. Buchholz, Owens, and Elias have combined for -1.1 fWAR. Teheran is rated at 1.7 fWAR, which is a 2.8 fWAR swing, at mid-season. That's the same as Porcello, so let's call him a solid #3 starter.

However, acquiring Teheran -- assuming the validity of fWAR comparisons -- would theoretically provide a +5.6 swing per 34 games over the so-called "production" of Buchholz, Owens, and Elias. And, Teheran is controlled for 4.5 years. And, the Sox have no prospects who project to be MLB-ready any time soon.
Yeah, but you don't get what's happened in the first half. You get what will happen in the second half. The comparison you want to do here isn't "What happened in the first half?" -1.1 WAR v +1.7 WAR. It's "What do we expect to happen in future?" Buchholz, Owens and Elias project for 0.6 fWAR in 90 IP. Teheran for 1.1 fWAR in 99 IP. That's a pretty marginal upgrade.

And it's actually less than what Fangraphs thinks we'd get from putting Benintendi in LF, where Holt, LeMarre, Brentz et al are apparently expected to give us 0.1 fWAR over the rest of the year.

Yes we'd have Teheran for another 4 years, and I'm actually not averse to having him on the team, he's a decent pitcher on a good contract. I'm just not paying anything like what it appears that it would take to get him.

If you don't believe the projections, well then this line of argument won't hold much sway with you. But we shouldn't mistake "the projections have a wide margin for error" with "the projections are systematically biased".
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Unless Teheran gets to Boston and we discover he can't pitch under pressure against American League lineups
I don't believe in "he can't pitch here" type stuff -- it smacks of fan hubris, except when applied to Colorado. With proper game prep and coaching, anyone with MLB-caliber stuff and a track record of success in the NL is just as likely to carry that success over to an AL park as an AL-pedigreed pitcher.

And I'm not advocating that the Sox move Benintendi. But Teheran's 25 years old, with a solid track record of success against MLB hitters, and locked up through 2020 at low money.

The Sox desperately need a pitcher like him, since they can't get any reasonable production at all from the back-end guys they already have.

If you don't believe the projections, well then this line of argument won't hold much sway with you.
I don't believe in the projections, either.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The problem isn't whether Benintendi is a "sure thing" or not. It's that the Sox have multiple holes in the rotation right now, and only one "probable thing" on the pitching side of the upper minors. That's Rodriguez, and there's basically nobody standing between him and Espinoza.
That's selling Kopech a little short, I think, depending on your definition of "probable." I'd certainly call him a "plausible thing."

My preferred alternative to Teheran, at least as a first try, is Aaron Wilkerson. Fangraphs depth charts have Teheran as a 3.67 ERA/3.91 FIP pitcher for the rest of this year. They have Wilkerson at 4.06/4.14. Surely worth a try?
Worth a try, perhaps, but projections of minor leaguers need to be taken with a few thousand tons of salt. FG projections have top-10 Cardinals prospect Alex Reyes at 4.01/3.91, barely distinguishable from Wilkerson. Does that mean Wilkerson is really as good a pitcher as Reyes? No, it just means that major league projections of minor league players are extremely blunt instruments.

To some extent DDski hurt his own flexibility when he traded four prospects for Craig Kimbrel (-0.11 WPA so far, which seems amazing given how dominant he can look). But I don't want to get into that discussion again.
WPA seems like a poor metric to use for closers, who by definition only come into games when win probability is already high. They're going to add little to the positive side when they do their job well, and a huge amount to the negative side when they do badly. So WPA provides a funhouse-mirror exaggeration of their real performance. (That doesn't mean that Kimbrel hasn't been mildly disappointing, just that there are probably better stats to use to make that point, like his career-worst ERA and xFIP.)
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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That's selling Kopech a little short, I think, depending on your definition of "probable." I'd certainly call him a "plausible thing."
True, but especially after the last year he's had, Kopech profiles as a future bullpen arm to me: no third pitch, bad decision-making skills, and very hairy cheese.
 

E5 Yaz

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I don't believe in "he can't pitch here" type stuff -- it smacks of fan hubris, except when applied to Colorado. With proper game prep and coaching, anyone with MLB-caliber stuff and a track record of success in the NL is just as likely to carry that success over to an AL park as an AL-pedigreed pitcher.
Where were you when Ed Whitson needed you?
 

ehaz

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I don't believe in "he can't pitch here" type stuff -- it smacks of fan hubris, except when applied to Colorado. With proper game prep and coaching, anyone with MLB-caliber stuff and a track record of success in the NL is just as likely to carry that success over to an AL park as an AL-pedigreed pitcher.

And I'm not advocating that the Sox move Benintendi. But Teheran's 25 years old, with a solid track record of success against MLB hitters, and locked up through 2020 at low money.

The Sox desperately need a pitcher like him, since they can't get any reasonable production at all from the back-end guys they already have.

I don't believe in the projections, either.
I don't think it is at all unreasonable to assume that Teheran could initially struggle against AL East lineups in Fenway, Rogers, Camden, and le Toilet after pitching half his games in Atlanta, NYM, MIA, WAS. He gets a lot of flyball outs.

Teheran's xFIP is over 4.00 and according to Fangraphs he's giving up the highest proportion of hard contact in his career. I just cannot rationalize giving up someone like AB or even Swihart and signing up for that likely regression.
 
That's selling Kopech a little short, I think, depending on your definition of "probable." I'd certainly call him a "plausible thing."



Worth a try, perhaps, but projections of minor leaguers need to be taken with a few thousand tons of salt. FG projections have top-10 Cardinals prospect Alex Reyes at 4.01/3.91, barely distinguishable from Wilkerson. Does that mean Wilkerson is really as good a pitcher as Reyes? No, it just means that major league projections of minor league players are extremely blunt instruments.



WPA seems like a poor metric to use for closers, who by definition only come into games when win probability is already high. They're going to add little to the positive side when they do their job well, and a huge amount to the negative side when they do badly. So WPA provides a funhouse-mirror exaggeration of their real performance. (That doesn't mean that Kimbrel hasn't been mildly disappointing, just that there are probably better stats to use to make that point, like his career-worst ERA and xFIP.)
Well, to be fair to Wilkerson, the projections aren't just pulling those numbers out of nowhere. He's projected to be about as good as Reyes because he's been...about as good as Reyes. Succeeding in a different way, but there's nothing to dislike about his numbers at all really;

Since the beginning of 2014 (across all levels)
Reyes - 267 IP, 363 SO (!!), 140 BB, 3.30 ERA
WIlkerson - 286 IP, 297 SO, 80 BB, 2.64 ERA

K-BB almost the same for both, Wilkerson has the edge on ERA, these numbers aren't park-, league- or even level-adjusted so don't read too much into them- I'm absolutely not arguing Wilkerson is a better prospect than Reyes. He's six years older for a start. I'm just not seeing any reason not to give him a shot. He's Daniel Nava all over again and Nava gave us 4.9 fWAR in 364 games over the course of 3+ seasons. And a great story.

Are minor league-based projections really that much worse than MLB-based projections? Can anyone point to any research on this?

I used WPA because I wanted to show the impact Kimbrel had had on the team so far (ie, basically none) as opposed to talking about his level of performance out of context. His WPAs in the past 5 seasons have ranged from 1.90 to 4.25, so I'm not seeing much of an argument for closers being unable to accrue high numbers. Last season 14 relievers had more than 3 WPA and only 3 of them didn't reach double figures in saves, only 1 had an ERA above 3.00. Yes they have the chance to lose a lot more than they gain if they blow the save, but that's compensated for by the fact that it's relatively easy to come in and win a game with even a 1-run lead. Most relievers can win that, most of the time. But this is a digression to what was already a digression, so it doesn't matter - If you prefer to look at other stats I have no problem with that.
 

nvalvo

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FG projections have top-10 Cardinals prospect Alex Reyes at 4.01/3.91, barely distinguishable from Wilkerson. Does that mean Wilkerson is really as good a pitcher as Reyes? No, it just means that major league projections of minor league players are extremely blunt instruments.
Well, because of the age difference, you'd certainly favor Reyes' pre-arb years over Wilkerson's by leaps and bounds. But if you're picking someone to throw fifteen starts over the next three months, the gap is less.
 

Toe Nash

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Jul 28, 2005
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It's malpractice to me, with the state of the team, that Sean O'Sullivan is getting another start tomorrow when we have a guy with Wilkerson's numbers in AAA. It's totally possible that he won't translate to the majors, but the bar he has to clear is "better than Sean O'Sullivan" (or, if you like, Clay Buchholz). I'd love to know what information they're looking at that suggests that O'Sullivan is any better than he's ever been, which is below replacement level.

Yes, Wilkerson's not on the 40-man, but that is an easy fix. If you don't want to lose SOS for some reason (would anyone even claim him?), Williams Jerez or Sean Coyle don't seem like they'd be missed much.

You give Wilkerson a couple starts and you have far more information on the team need for a starter. Remember when they somewhat surprisingly brought up Workman in 2013 and Farrell / Cherington later told us that they wanted to find out what he could do before they made any deadline moves? This is the same kind of thing. I don't know if Wilkerson is the answer, but he certainly looks like he could help.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
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I think at this point we should all be rooting for the White Sox to completely fall apart. Sale and Quintana are the only pitchers I feel comfortable paying the price needed to acquire a good starting pitcher
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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It's malpractice to me, with the state of the team, that Sean O'Sullivan is getting another start tomorrow when we have a guy with Wilkerson's numbers in AAA. It's totally possible that he won't translate to the majors, but the bar he has to clear is "better than Sean O'Sullivan" (or, if you like, Clay Buchholz). I'd love to know what information they're looking at that suggests that O'Sullivan is any better than he's ever been, which is below replacement level.

Yes, Wilkerson's not on the 40-man, but that is an easy fix. If you don't want to lose SOS for some reason (would anyone even claim him?), Williams Jerez or Sean Coyle don't seem like they'd be missed much.

You give Wilkerson a couple starts and you have far more information on the team need for a starter. Remember when they somewhat surprisingly brought up Workman in 2013 and Farrell / Cherington later told us that they wanted to find out what he could do before they made any deadline moves? This is the same kind of thing. I don't know if Wilkerson is the answer, but he certainly looks like he could help.
O'Sullivan has a history with Brian Bannister, and they brought him on as a project thinking he was better than his history: http://m.providencejournal.com/article/20160506/SPORTS/160509466

But beyond that, he also both has good numbers in AAA and has demonstrated an ability to give five solid innings in Boston better than most of the staff. You absolutely have to pull him as soon as he starts to crumble, but as of his last start it seems they have a pretty good handle on that.

That said, he's currently starter #4; as soon as we need a #5 I have to guess that's Wilkerson unless they make a trade before then or Edro proves he's actually fixed.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think at this point we should all be rooting for the White Sox to completely fall apart. Sale and Quintana are the only pitchers I feel comfortable paying the price needed to acquire a good starting pitcher
Why should we believe that if the White Sox "completely fall apart" they'll be interested in trading either of their two best pitchers?
 

geoduck no quahog

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I'm joining with those who say the best option right now is fixing 2 of Buchholz/Rodriguez/Kelly + finding a cheap restoration project off the heap + landing a good back end reliever (which could also be Kelly). Anything else mortgages the future to obtain 1 arm (that could fall off) and possibly a playoff spot.