Brooklyn Nets 2016-17 (the Year of the Swap)

Jed Zeppelin

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I've been reading far too much negative talk about only landing the #3 pick and all of X, Y, and Z being suddenly unavailable in trade. Cheer up. We get two more tanktastic Nets' seasons to enjoy (before we move on to Grizzwatch, of course). Let's talk about it!

First, some housekeeping. Sean Marks' first big decision was to hire Atlanta assistant Kenny Atkinson as the new head coach. If you read the above remarks from his press conference, he and Marks appear to be filled to the brim with cautious cautionism. Prokhorov is ever-lurking, and the Nets' assets are ever-invisible. Patience is the keyword. Reading between the lines--they expect to suck unless they get lucky. In one breath you can read that Thad and Brook have been told they won't be traded, while at the same time the GM preaches flexibility and openness. My read is that he would trade either in a heartbeat if it meant bringing in some prospects with talent. Stay tuned for June 23--at the Barclays no less.

Speaking of the draft, let's recap where the Nets stand right now. Here is the list of every pick they have in this year's draft: #55. That's it. 55. Will they buy some more? Almost certainly. Can they trade for more? Sure, if they're willing to give up their only two decent players and start entirely from scratch.

Anyway, it's early, but here is what they're looking at for a depth chart entering this offseason:
PG: Kilpatrick
SG: Hollis-Jefferson
SF: Bogdanovich
PF: Young, McCullough
C: Lopez

Jarrett Jack (coming off major injury) and Markel Brown (bad) have team options. Larkin (bad), Ellington (bad), and Robinson (bad) have player options. Also, not that it matters, but they'll still be paying Deron Williams $5mil and change to play somewhere else.

The fans will hang their hats on cap space but let's be honest, nobody near the top tier is signing on for this train wreck, and any trade possibilities are going to be super-limited because they have no picks to offer and the roster is so thin as is. So what can they do? Scour the globe for overlooked Euros, buy as many picks as possible and hope for some miracles, and pick up the free agent scraps in the hopes of at least playing competitive ball in a decent environment while they try to develop what few developable players exist on the roster.

Here's the catch: Brook and Thad played about as well as they ever have last season. Both were iron men and meant almost nothing for team success. This is a team that needs a major influx of outside shooting, capable distribution at the pg position, significant defensive upgrades at the 1 and 3 and generally speaking, more multifaceted players. RHJ is a nice-enough wing prospect but he's a zero on offense. Bogdanovich can blow up every now and then but he's a sieve, and so on. Lopez now and forever doesn't rebound well for his size and often disappears in the 4th quarter. Young is good, but still pretty limited in what he can do well. This is a team that needs a massive makeover, but all they can afford is a manicure on one nail. I think the best they can hope for is something on par with signing Jeremy Lin.

Meanwhile, elsewhere at the bottom of the table, Philadelphia figures to improve. Los Angeles is desperate to improve. Phoenix had a worst case scenario season and still outplayed Brooklyn. Same for New Orleans. Who can the Nets overtake in the East? I don't see any clear opportunities there. Maybe the Nuggets are a possibility out West if they sell off their vet pieces.

Without a serious stroke of good fortune this summer, I just don't see any way Brooklyn doesn't have us right back in the same spot next season, for what is supposed to be a much better draft.
 

DJnVa

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Without a serious stroke of good fortune this summer, I just don't see any way Brooklyn doesn't have us right back in the same spot next season, for what is supposed to be a much better draft.
Mmm, 2017 draft. Giles, Jackson, Fultz, Tatum....
 

Nick Kaufman

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The fans will hang their hats on cap space but let's be honest, nobody near the top tier is signing on for this train wreck, and any trade possibilities are going to be super-limited because they have no picks to offer and the roster is so thin as is. So what can they do? Scour the globe for overlooked Euros, buy as many picks as possible and hope for some miracles, and pick up the free agent scraps in the hopes of at least playing competitive ball in a decent environment while they try to develop what few developable players exist on the roster.
I think their best strategy is overpaying for mediocre talent and that's the strategy that keeps them from the bottom cellar. Meanwhile, other teams, some of which we can foresee yet are likely to choose a tanking strategy. The picks are bound to be top 10, even top 5, but we ll need a great deal of luck either in season or the lottery to land a top 2.
 

cheech13

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Jeremy Lin and Kent Bazemore were effusive in their praise of Atkinson when the Nets hired him. If they could add both guys in FA and then overpay one of the second tier wings (Barnes, Parson, Batum, etc.) they could back their way into a 25-30 win season.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Jeremy Lin and Kent Bazemore were effusive in their praise of Atkinson when the Nets hired him. If they could add both guys in FA and then overpay one of the second tier wings (Barnes, Parson, Batum, etc.) they could back their way into a 25-30 win season.
But what point would this serve? I read an article a couple months ago (no idea where though), that said, basically, they need to tank hard. Sell off any assets and get back draft picks and take a piece of humble pie and be willing to see the Celtics get the 1-4 picks. Pick up your own lottery tickets and not worry about the Celtics.
 

cheech13

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Why tank? They won't have their own pick until 2019. Lopez, Young, and anyone they sign this offseason will probably be gone by then. If you can get good picks for Lopez and Young okay, but otherwise you have to spend money on somebody.
 

DJnVa

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The #16, the #23, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Brook Lopez. Who says no?
Amir likely. It'll come out like "Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!"
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Why tank? They won't have their own pick until 2019. Lopez, Young, and anyone they sign this offseason will probably be gone by then. If you can get good picks for Lopez and Young okay, but otherwise you have to spend money on somebody.
I've seen this movie before:
 

Swedgin

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Jeremy Lin and Kent Bazemore were effusive in their praise of Atkinson when the Nets hired him. If they could add both guys in FA and then overpay one of the second tier wings (Barnes, Parson, Batum, etc.) they could back their way into a 25-30 win season.
Lin I could see. He is an interesting position. I think a lot of teams would have an interest in him as a third guard. Does he prefer a decent situation with a chance to play in May while coming off the bench or would he rather be a starting PG on a bad team and get paid a little more.

Bazemore on the other hand is going to have lots of suitors. Likewise given the exploding cap it will be hard to overpay for Barnes, Batum and Parsons. There are already reports (to be taken with giant grain of salt) about potential destinations willing to offer the max, or very close to it, for each of those guys. While their agents are no doubt behind most of those, there is still going to be so much money to spend on a relatively weak class of FAs.
 

zenter

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The Nets today are a more extreme version of the Sixers in 2013, when Hinkie took charge - no real future assets and limited on-court assets. The solution will have to be similar, with on-court product being irrelevant to the next two years. The biggest mistake would be to worry about how their performance impacts owed picks. That's too late now.

The interesting question is what the team plans to do with on-court product in 2019, and how that affects moves today.
 

nighthob

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If anything I expect the Nets to sell off Thad Young and Pouffy Lopez to one of the losers this summer in an attempt to get some extra #1s for 2017 and beyond. I think that's what PC was getting at, the Nets had limited assets and they should stop worrying about Boston's draft position and start maximising their own draft chances.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But even if they trade them, they would sign guys to win games as their win/loss record doesn't matter, and maybe later on you could flip those guys as well. It's not like they would just trade Lopez and Young and then not sign anyone and be resigned to a 7 win season. They can sign whatever mediocre talent is willing to sign.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But even if they trade them, they would sign guys to win games as their win/loss record doesn't matter, and maybe later on you could flip those guys as well. It's not like they would just trade Lopez and Young and then not sign anyone and be resigned to a 7 win season. They can sign whatever mediocre talent is willing to sign.
While this is true there is a limited ceiling as to how many more wins this gets them. I'm actually hoping that the Nets spend this summer on the Bazemore's or Turner's with the 2018 draft having the big prize in my binkie DeAndre Ayton. He's the best HS player I've seen since LeBron, is Hakeem with a smooth perimeter game, and already dominated UNC's starting frontcourt in an exhibition game when he was 15 putting up 18/17 against Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks, and Kennedy Meeks. He would start on most NBA teams as a HS senior if the rules allowed it.
 

nighthob

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But even if they trade them, they would sign guys to win games as their win/loss record doesn't matter, and maybe later on you could flip those guys as well. It's not like they would just trade Lopez and Young and then not sign anyone and be resigned to a 7 win season. They can sign whatever mediocre talent is willing to sign.
Again, not having read the article I am only guessing, but this summer it's going to be uniquely difficult to find a roster full of mediocre players because everyone has cap room. Even if they overpay for the Evan Turners and Harry Barnes of the world, they might not be able to add more than a couple of players like that to a roster of cruft.
 

DJnVa

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But even if they trade them, they would sign guys to win games as their win/loss record doesn't matter, and maybe later on you could flip those guys as well. It's not like they would just trade Lopez and Young and then not sign anyone and be resigned to a 7 win season. They can sign whatever mediocre talent is willing to sign.
I think the point was trade them, get lesser players and picks back and hope team you trade with doesn't make postseason. Then you lose a shit ton of games, but at least there's some outside shot that you get lucky with some other team's draft choice.
 

mauf

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The Nets today are a more extreme version of the Sixers in 2013, when Hinkie took charge - no real future assets and limited on-court assets. The solution will have to be similar, with on-court product being irrelevant to the next two years. The biggest mistake would be to worry about how their performance impacts owed picks. That's too late now.

The interesting question is what the team plans to do with on-court product in 2019, and how that affects moves today.
Why wouldn't the Nets try to acquire a few nice, complementary pieces who won't be around past 2019? Their limited young talent will develop better if they have a few competent teammates (the Philly model isn't good for development), and they'll sell more tix by being quasi-competitive. Then, they can let the bottom fall out in 2019, and either get lucky in the lottery or convince a superstar to sign in Brooklyn (not hard to imagine, if they had a path to acquire some complementary pieces).

The whole reason you tank is to improve your draft position. Absent that motivation, it's clearly a bad strategy.
 

zenter

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Why wouldn't the Nets try to acquire a few nice, complementary pieces who won't be around past 2019? Their limited young talent will develop better if they have a few competent teammates (the Philly model isn't good for development), and they'll sell more tix by being quasi-competitive. Then, they can let the bottom fall out in 2019, and either get lucky in the lottery or convince a superstar to sign in Brooklyn (not hard to imagine, if they had a path to acquire some complementary pieces).

The whole reason you tank is to improve your draft position. Absent that motivation, it's clearly a bad strategy.
Seems like a decent plan. The 76ers comparison is about the draft pick situation - building a decent pipeline between now and then (which seems like a not terrible idea) may require some hits on the court. Not a full teardown necessarily, but if someone offered 2 1st rounders for Lopez, I've seen worst deals.
 

cheech13

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Each year we discuss what a fool's errand it is to try to improve toward the middle because such a move doesn't get a team any closer to a championship and the mechanics of that improvement usually leave a team without a chance to acquire high-end talent through the draft or free agency. However, Brooklyn doesn't have to worry about their draft position for several years and the increasing cap negates any side effects to spending. Taking that into consideration, Brooklyn should be looking to improve their on-court product as much as they can now because there is no tangible benefit to a long-term tear down.
 
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Mugsy's Jock

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Jeremy Lin in Brooklyn makes sense. The marketing hook is clear -- super promotable to the Chinese population in Brooklyn and Queens. Plus his game is fun to watch. The basketball angle makes sense too -- Lin is a usually competent and occasionally better than that basketball player, and the Nets don't have a lot of those.

And then there's the tweaking the Knicks thing.

And he won't particularly help or hurt tanking efforts when they need to tank.
 

nighthob

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Each year we discuss what a fool's errand it is to try to improve toward the middle because such a move doesn't get a team any closer to a championship and the mechanics of that improvement usually leave a team without a chance to acquire high-end talent through the draft or free agency. However, Brooklyn doesn't have to worry about their draft position for several years and the increasing cap negates any side effects to spending. Taking that into consideration, Brooklyn should be looking to improve their on-court product as much as they can now because there is no tangible benefit to a long-term tear down.
Unfortunately for the Nets this is the worst possible time for it, because 2/3 of the NBA has major cap space and sub-max talent is going to get bid up this year and next.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Why wouldn't the Nets try to acquire a few nice, complementary pieces who won't be around past 2019? Their limited young talent will develop better if they have a few competent teammates (the Philly model isn't good for development), and they'll sell more tix by being quasi-competitive. Then, they can let the bottom fall out in 2019, and either get lucky in the lottery or convince a superstar to sign in Brooklyn (not hard to imagine, if they had a path to acquire some complementary pieces).

The whole reason you tank is to improve your draft position. Absent that motivation, it's clearly a bad strategy.
I think I comes down to basically a cost/benefit analysis. How much more $ are you really pulling in by fielding a 30 win team as opposed to a 20 win team?

The nets averaged just over 15k in attendance last year, in an arena that seats just shy of 18k. With an average ticket price of $66, even if middling moves get them selling out, you're talking about rounding errors on the balance sheet. Concessions and merchandise (which are likely contracted out) aren't covering paying Jeremy Lin, let alone multiple guys in that tier.

There's an argument to be made for having gets to help with maturation, but you need the young guys there first and while I'm not as on top of the Nets roster as many others might be, I'm not seeing players there worth making that effort. They fucked themselves six ways from Sunday, I don't see the point of dropping $20-30M on role players to add ten wins and hope to put another 4K asses in seats.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Shane Larkin opts out of his contract and is now a free agent. He's nothing special, but leaves the Nets with another roster spot to fill.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojVerticalNBA 9m9 minutes ago
Brooklyn has traded forward Thad Young to the Indiana Pacers for the 20th pick and a future 2nd rounder, league sources tell @TheVertical.


Brook has to go now right? They would be wasting his talent there. Wow. Happy times!

Has a team's D-League squad ever been close to competitive with their parent team? We may see that this year.

Who will they use their money on? Young players who they can try to develop and get more out of or a Jeremy Lin type player?
 

Auger34

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While this is true there is a limited ceiling as to how many more wins this gets them. I'm actually hoping that the Nets spend this summer on the Bazemore's or Turner's with the 2018 draft having the big prize in my binkie DeAndre Ayton. He's the best HS player I've seen since LeBron, is Hakeem with a smooth perimeter game, and already dominated UNC's starting frontcourt in an exhibition game when he was 15 putting up 18/17 against Brice Johnson, Isaiah Hicks, and Kennedy Meeks. He would start on most NBA teams as a HS senior if the rules allowed it.
HRB, what do you think of the 2017 draft? Isn't Harry Giles supposed to be like a young Shawn Kemp?
 

Yossarian

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Giles could be great, but he's already had multiple serious knee injuries before even stepping foot on a college campus. To me he's a giant question mark until he can make it through his freshman year healthy and productive. Having said that, people have raved about his upside for years now, so I guess we'll see.

I tend to think the most impressive of Duke's freshmen is going to be Tatum.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Lopez, who on several occasions has nearly been traded, appears now to be a building block, with Atkinson insisting the team is not looking to deal him. He is currently recovering from plantar fasciitis in his surgically repaired right foot, though team officials maintain the 28-year-old will be fine.
Link
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, what do you think of the 2017 draft? Isn't Harry Giles supposed to be like a young Shawn Kemp?
Just now saw this. Yeah, what Yossarian said in response. Giles was like LeBron as a HS sophomore as a can't miss superstar with all the tools to be that guy.....now 2 ACL's later there is a lot of questions surrounding him which really is a shame. My guy is in 2018, 6-11 manchild DeAndre Ayton......this is the draft I'm looking to win the lottery as you have a guy with legitimate HOF potential for the taking. I also like Kevin Knox in that class but he's redundant to Jaylen. DeAndre is the prize I'm looking for out of these Nets picks without a doubt.
 

DJnVa

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What if I told you we could possibly have BOTH? Would that be something you might be interested in?
 

HomeRunBaker

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What if I told you we could possibly have BOTH? Would that be something you might be interested in?
I know. It's freakin scary!!

People are freaking out about Jaylen but he's only one of the 3 top picks we're going to have in the next 24 months. Even if Ainge can't put together a KG-like trade it is not the end of the world as our young core could include three Top-3 picks in a row including one or even two #1 picks.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know. It's freakin scary!!

People are freaking out about Jaylen but he's only one of the 3 top picks we're going to have in the next 24 months. Even if Ainge can't put together a KG-like trade it is not the end of the world as our young core could include three Top-3 picks in a row including one or even two #1 picks.
I'm not going to lie. Last year, Nets wins bothered me more than Celtics losses.
 

Blacken

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Unless he's replaced by a better player, which is likely. I'd rather they trotted 33 year old Jarrett Jack out there 30+ minutes a night.
Jack's probably not worse than whatever replacement-level dude they chloroform and press-gang into a Nets uniform, though.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Doesn't it just (slightly) increase his trade value? "We're in no rush to move him, so you need to motivate us" vs "Fire sale - EVERYTHING MUST GO!!"
I mean if you buy into that kind of stuff.....sure? I don't particularly think any GM worth his salt is going to look at that situation and think "Damn, I gotta increase my offer now, they want to build around a 28 year old guy with injury concerns and I know they don't have any draft picks and won't be able to sign anyone decent anytime soon, so it doesn't make sense, but that's what they said!"
 

zenter

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I mean if you buy into that kind of stuff.....sure? I don't particularly think any GM worth his salt is going to look at that situation and think "Damn, I gotta increase my offer now, they want to build around a 28 year old guy with injury concerns and I know they don't have any draft picks and won't be able to sign anyone decent anytime soon, so it doesn't make sense, but that's what they said!"
Not in that sense. In the sense that they may not take any offer - there's no need to take the best offer available.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Not in that sense. In the sense that they may not take any offer - there's no need to take the best offer available.
Are you really buying that they won't take a legit offer? I get your point, I just don't buy the posturing. He's only signed for two more seasons, despite the other factors, in what way is he a building block for a team that has a 4-5 year road to relevance?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jack's probably not worse than whatever replacement-level dude they chloroform and press-gang into a Nets uniform, though.
Jack tore his ACL in January against Boston. I wouldn't have been too worried from the Celtics perspective if he was playing for the Nets this season. He had no future with that team anyway.
 

Blacken

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Shit, that's right, I forgot about that.

Still probably not worse than whatever replacement-level dude they chloroform and press-gang into a Nets uniform.
 

Auger34

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Decent chance you plug in Harrison Barnes at SF.
Let's say they get Barnes (or Bazemore)... they are still in the conversation for worst team in basketball right? I think its a toss up between them, the Lakers and the Kings
 

tbrep

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Let's say they get Barnes (or Bazemore)... they are still in the conversation for worst team in basketball right? I think its a toss up between them, the Lakers and the Kings
I wouldn't worry as much about the Lakers for the lottery. Kobe's retirement will be addition by subtraction and the young guys (Clarkson, Randle, Russell) will have had a year under their belt so should be improved. Add in Ingram who could contribute right away and I think they're likely inn the 4-5 range for the lottery (which would be phenomenal for Philly).