The Biggest Play in MLB History (article on .com site)

ToeKneeArmAss

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I've been having an argument with a buddy (Rangers fan) about which was the bigger play: the Cruz play in the 2011 World Series or the Buckner play. I started to research it and it led me to search for the biggest play in MLB history, and I was surprised by the result. It turned into this article now up on the sonsofsamhorn.com site. Would be interested to hear what people think.
 

loshjott

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Great article. I did not know the full story of the 1960 WS game 7 at all.

One quibble, calling Mariano Rivera the emerging star closer of the Yankees in the 2001 WS. By the start of that WS he had already amassed 23 of his 42 postseason saves, won 4 titles, and was MVP of the 1999 series.
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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Great article. I did not know the full story of the 1960 WS game 7 at all.

One quibble, calling Mariano Rivera the emerging star closer of the Yankees in the 2001 WS. By the start of that WS he had already amassed 23 of his 42 postseason saves, won 4 titles, and was MVP of the 1999 series.
Good point. I should have researched that.
 

Kliq

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Nice piece. I imagine the play that had the greatest impact on the game was the day Ray Champman got hit with that baseball.
 

terrynever

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Most Pirates fans from my father's era would tell you Hal Smith was the real hero of that game. But it's nice to see the impact of his home run quantified. Article is very well done. Funny that the two biggest plays in WS history both went against the Yankees in tightly contested 7-game series. The Yankees made a lot of big plays in the WS over the years but they often won in four or five games. They are 5-5 in 7-game series and 1-3 in their last 4 series that went the distance.
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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Wouldn't the biggest play be the Joe Carter walkoff that won the World Series?

Game 6 so no
Good observations. Carter's homer came in the bottom of the ninth down by one with two on and one out, and added 66% to the Jays's win expectancy in that game. But because they would still have had the chance to win the series in game seven, it adds 33% to their "championship expectancy".

Similarly, or maybe even more dramatically, Bobby Thomson's "shot heard 'round the world" changed the Giants' fate in that deciding playoff game by 71%. But that only raised their CE by 35.5% since they were then 50/50 to win the series.

Edit: doing math in my head.
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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Grantland had a good article looking at this from a similar angle, last October after the Royals won. I'd say it's a spiritual brother of TKAA's article, and has some good video of some of the plays they both celebrate.
Thanks for pointing that out, TPIW. They even used the same acronym (CPA). I guess it's comforting to have my logic and research confirmed, though it's a bit deflating to discover I was late to the party.
 

snowmanny

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I've been having an argument with a buddy (Rangers fan) about which was the bigger play: the Cruz play in the 2011 World Series or the Buckner play. I started to research it and it led me to search for the biggest play in MLB history, and I was surprised by the result. It turned into this article now up on the sonsofsamhorn.com site. Would be interested to hear what people think.
Regarding the Cruz play, once the ball was in the air the Rangers' win expectancy had to go from 92% to about 99%, presuming average outfield play. So I think a straight before/after WPA discounts his miscue.

It's interesting how we now look at these sorts of questions only in terms of winning the World Series. When I was a kid the play widely and generally considered the biggest in baseball history was Bobby Thompson's home run. Mazeroski was probably next.
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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Nice work. Where does Renteria's 1997 Game 7 extra inning walkoff rate?
The Grantland article puts it at #7 all-time with 34% CPA. Remember that the winning run was on third with two outs. So if you consider a typical ML batting average as being maybe .265-ish and then add for the small likelihoods of passed balls, wild pitches, or errors, that sounds about right.
 

tntoriole

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May 7, 2014
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Gabby Hartnett's walk off homer in the gloaming for the Cubs against Pirates that vaulted them into first place at end of 1938 season.
 

budcrew08

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That's such a great article. Super informative and not too numbers-heavy (i.e. You don't get bogged down by all the percentages)
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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That Womack hit was so improbable. I'm sure it's correct that taking that set up without considering personnel that the home team has a 35 percent chance, but the reality was that the D-Backs were bigger underdogs when you consider the actual situation.

First, the air had been completely sucked out of the building. Rivera had given the D-Backs a gift, but Bell blew the chance to get the lead runner to third with one out with a terrible bunt. It was so bad that it probably should have been a double play but Brosius decided to hold the ball. I was there that night and the stadium just deflated.

Second, Womack wasn't just a light hitter but was especially poor that year with two strikes. Rivera was ahead, and dominating to lefties. He had given up three extra base hits to lefties all year. It's still amazing to me that he was able to make contact let alone pull one down the line with two strikes.
 
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JGray38

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Interesting- I guess that means Merkle's/Meyer's missed foul pop-up on the pitch before Speaker's hit is just a hair below Buckner's play in terms of WPA swings if Speakers' hit was good for a 38% .
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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Interesting- I guess that means Merkle's/Meyer's missed foul pop-up on the pitch before Speaker's hit is just a hair below Buckner's play in terms of WPA swings if Speakers' hit was good for a 38% .
WPA-wise you're right. Buckner's error cost the Sox 40% WE. To calculate the effect of the dropped popup in 1912, we can thank Tom Tango who helpfully provided a Win Expectancy matrix for 'close and late' situations on his site here: WE Close and Late.

From this table I looked up the game situation with Speaker at bat (bottom of home inning, ninth or later, one out, 1st and 3rd) and the home team's WE is 46%. If the Giants get that out, it drops to 20%. So if they catch that ball, their chances increase by 26%.

But again, since the Buckner play happened in Game 6, it cost the Red Sox 20% of Championship Expectancy whereas the missed popup cost the Giants 26% - ranking it just below the Cruz play.

EDIT: For apples to apples-ness, we should probably examine both plays on the basis of what the WE would be if made or if not made. If Buckner fields the grounder (which incidentally I still expect him to do, every time I see the replay), the Red Sox are 50% likely to win that game. When he misses it, it drops to 0%. So the full effect of the misplay is -50% WPA (not simply "They were 40% to win before the play and 0% after, so -40% WPA."). The -50% WPA is comparable to the -26% WPA calculated above for the 1912 popup. Again though because of Game 6 vs. Game 7, the popup has more impact on CE - 26% vs 25%).

Doing similar "make the play/don't make the play" math on the Cruz play makes it -31% CPA.
 
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