Pitching Targets

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
And by holding out, maybe DDski can still provide the best package by offering more of the lesser (but still good) options he's got on hand. But maybe he won't be able to get Atlanta to bite on Devers and Kopech and Chavis instead; and if Atlanta doesn't budge then I think DDski will absolutely bend from this current no-Moncada, no-Benintendi stance, to get the guy he and Frank Wren want.
He may do that. But again, unless he's an idiot, he won't do it to guarantee a title in 2016--which it won't, at all--but rather to increase the probability of a title every year for several years to come--which it will, as long as the prospect cost is not so exorbitant that it becomes a net medium-term loss even allowing for the vagaries of development.

It shouldn't be necessary to spend either Moncada or Benintendi to get Teheran, who is a #2, not an ace, and just a year removed from a Rick Porcello season. And I'm very dicey about trading for Vizcaino. I don't think the likelihood that he will give us more value than, say, Pat Light, is certain enough to be worth spending what he will probably cost. His walk rate makes me nervous, and relievers are just inherently unstable. He's thrown less than 90 major league innings to date, and only the last 65 of that 90 have been elite. I don't like the idea of giving up a top-50 prospect for the privilege of finding out if his next 65 will be just as good.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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He may do that. But again, unless he's an idiot, he won't do it to guarantee a title in 2016--which it won't, at all--but rather to increase the probability of a title every year for several years to come--which it will, as long as the prospect cost is not so exorbitant that it becomes a net medium-term loss even allowing for the vagaries of development.

It shouldn't be necessary to spend either Moncada or Benintendi to get Teheran, who is a #2, not an ace, and just a year removed from a Rick Porcello season. And I'm very dicey about trading for Vizcaino. I don't think the likelihood that he will give us more value than, say, Pat Light, is certain enough to be worth spending what he will probably cost. His walk rate makes me nervous, and relievers are just inherently unstable. He's thrown less than 90 major league innings to date, and only the last 65 of that 90 have been elite. I don't like the idea of giving up a top-50 prospect for the privilege of finding out if his next 65 will be just as good.
I actually think Teheran's below-market extension is a huge reason DDski has tabbed him as option #1. The cap hit under $3.5MM AAV is great for the back end of the rotation. Trading for him should pay dividends now as well as in the future, even if he is a #2/3 in the AL. And there's enough uncertainty with even top prospects, that 4.3 years during Teheran's age 25-29 seasons ends up more valuable than the entire career of either Moncada or Benintendi.

However, if there wasn't going to be an expected immediate impact, DDski wouldn't be making the trade. Because the present is valuable, regardless how crummy the Sox have played over their last 10 games.

I just hope it doesn't take either of those two prospects.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I actually think Teheran's below-market extension is a huge reason DDski has tabbed him as option #1. The cap hit under $3.5MM AAV is great for the back end of the rotation. Trading for him should pay dividends now as well as in the future, even if he is a #2/3 in the AL. And there's enough uncertainty with even top prospects, that 4.3 years during Teheran's age 25-29 seasons ends up more valuable than the entire career of either Moncada or Benintendi.

However, if there wasn't going to be an expected immediate impact, DDski wouldn't be making the trade. Because the present is valuable, regardless how crummy the Sox have played over their last 10 games.

I just hope it doesn't take either of those two prospects.
Curious where you are getting an AAV of $3.5? His deal is 6/$32.4. That works out to $5.4. What am I missing?

The difference doesn't make a lot of impact on your argument - which I can see your point, but I don't think it's really accurate - we have no idea that DD has tabbed him as option #1 aside from media speculation from the likes of Jim Bowden; and even if he did I think he gives two shits with payroll coming off and the cap going up, though it would be a nice kicker.
 

OCD SS

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If this isn't a GFIN year, there is at least a much greater sense of urgency. The thing is that building long-term always allows one to defer making painful decisions where the results are immediately apparent. It's important to remember that 2004 & 2007 don't happen without franchise altering deals. I don't think the Red Sox have completely changed their team building philosophy, but they're also not going to be content to just ride this year out.

Benintendi looks like the most obvious trade candidate to me. He's a LFer on the Red Sox and another team can better utilize his defense. JBJ & Betts have 2/3 of the starts locked up. Comparatively, the IF looks more unstable. Moncada is untouchable as he can move into 3B long term, or take over 2B if anything happens to Pedroia. Espinosa is a close second as a SP with ace potential simply doesn't come along that often, and this team is always looking for pitching. Devers is far enough away that he's unlikely to be a centerpiece of a blockbuster.

If DD can leverage Benintendi's meteoric rise into a move to stabilize the staff, without giving up Moncada or Espinosa, he's probably gone.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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OCD, I'm not quite sure I get your argument. You're saying Moncada is untouchable because he can move to 3B or back up 2B. But at least we have a 3B and a 2B (and we have more depth coming, at 3B at any rate, in the next few years). We don't even have a left fielder--at the moment, literally, unless you regard Brentz as a major leaguer. And while Young has been heroic vs. RHP this year, history says that won't last. And there's very little good OF depth in the minors.

Of course, it's entirely possible Moncada could move to LF as well if it turns out that's where we need him. I can see making the argument for preferring Moncada strictly on the basis that his ceiling is higher. But I don't see the argument from positional need.
 

NoXInNixon

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Moncada is also perhaps the #1 prospect in all of baseball, which is another factor that makes him less touchable. I'd only want to trade him for a true #1, but it doesn't seem there are any of those on the market.
 

OCD SS

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Sorry Savin, I'm looking at this a combination of long-term and short-term goals. Moncada is a better prospect than Benintendi, and ultimately more flexible. In comparison to the pitching staff and IF, the OF is quite stable. My opinion is that Hanley, Sam Travis Shaw, and even Panda might pull together solid contributions, but aren't impact talent. And as solid as Petey has been, his durability has to be a concern going forward. When Moncada is ready, he looks like an upgrade on any of them. Benintendi has less potential for positional (and overall) impact, making him the prime chip to trade for pitching.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Sorry Savin, I'm looking at this a combination of long-term and short-term goals. Moncada is a better prospect than Benintendi, and ultimately more flexible. In comparison to the pitching staff and IF, the OF is quite stable. My opinion is that Hanley, Sam Travis Shaw, and even Panda might pull together solid contributions, but aren't impact talent. And as solid as Petey has been, his durability has to be a concern going forward. When Moncada is ready, he looks like an upgrade on any of them. Benintendi has less potential for positional (and overall) impact, making him the prime chip to trade for pitching.
Who's the left fielder in this "quite stable" outfield?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Curious where you are getting an AAV of $3.5? His deal is 6/$32.4. That works out to $5.4. What am I missing?
Just my mistake - I must have fat-fingered one of the numbers without noticing, or something equal dumb.

The difference doesn't make a lot of impact on your argument - which I can see your point, but I don't think it's really accurate - we have no idea that DD has tabbed him as option #1 aside from media speculation from the likes of Jim Bowden; and even if he did I think he gives two shits with payroll coming off and the cap going up, though it would be a nice kicker.
Well, DDski isn't about to go out and say who his #1 target is beforehand, and afterward all we'll get is some vague statement that the Sox "got their guy" at best. But prioritizing Teheran would be 100% consistent with what we've seen from DDski so far. Teheran throws harder than every other obvious trade candidate, he's got a better overall track record than every other obvious trade candidate, he's got more upside than every other obvious trade candidate, he's the obvious trade candidate that DDski's senior-most advisor is most familiar with, etc.

It's just so cognate to the David Price vs. the field situation during the offseason. And cognate to the baseball-related reasons that helped make Kimbrel the choice over Chapman.

And I agree with OCD -- Benintendi is the obvious guy to bend on, eventually, to patch the team's pitcher-shaped hole. Now that Swihart and Travis are injured, and with JBJ still hammering the ball occasionally even when he's slumping, Benintendi's the chip with the highest level of redundancy. Especially after considering how Moncada has the athleticism to shift to LF, if that's the only position which eventually opens up long-term on the field.

Now, I'd love to keep both, and hope the Red Sox do.

But to contend, the Sox need to find another couple decent pitchers, somewhere. The rotation sports three guys with an ERA+ under 100, and it's almost July. Honestly, the season probably would have been sunk already, if not for Wright's superhuman start to the season.

Still, if the Sox can get enough upside surprise through partial-season turnarounds by high-volatility guys like Buchholz or Rodriguez or Kelly (or Owens or Elias or Johnson), then that's ideal. If Farrell's bullpen management adapts to take advantage of non-elite guys like Hembree and Ross enjoying up-seasons rather than down-ones, even better.

But at this point, it looks to me like DDski will move premium talent to acquire a starting pitcher, and that pitcher will be Julio Teheran.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Chris Young would seem to be the obvious answer in 2017.
So, one good month vs. RHP and suddenly this guy who hasn't made 100 outfield starts since 2011, and who historically is so unproductive vs. RHP that we had a whole thread built around the dire necessity of finding a platoon partner for him, is our everyday LF next year at age 33? That sounds promising.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Ok, if you don't want to rely on Young full-time, or to go back to the Holt/Young platoon that's fine. Whatever.

There's an entire offseason to work on a better solution between now and when the 2017 season starts.

It's a lot easier to find a market-based solution to hit at the bottom of the order and play LF than it is to find a #1/2 starting pitcher.

It generally costs a lot less, too.
 

OCD SS

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Who's the left fielder in this "quite stable" outfield?
Two thirds of the OF is set, vs only half the IF or the obvious issues in the rotation. My feeling is that LF should be the easiest position to shore up; certainly easier than 3B or suitable pitcher.

Other than Moncada, there is no obvious impact help in these areas that aren't a long way off. Id hate to see his long term defensive value crippled by a move to LF. I would like to see him stick as a 3B-2B, so he can slide over in case Petey is hurt.
 

pdub

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Ugh, I'm hating this years trade deadline. I don't have much confidence in our current rotation at all outside of Steven Wright. And even then, a 31-year-old knuckler is bound to regress even slightly at some point, right? ...Right? I think Price will be fine but he has gotten shelled in a handful of starts, and then I realize that this is also the first year out of seven. He has a current RA/9IP of 4.76.

Then, I look at the trade market options that have been floated around. Sonny Gray? He's been solid but not an ace for, what, his last 15+ starts? Teheran is pretty darn good but I've read numerous suggestions stating that he's out-pitching his peripherals. Definitely a player I'd love to have but I'd rather save my top chips for a "true #1" - whatever that means at this juncture. With Wright being the only consistently great pitcher, I don't know if we need a #1 or #3-5. Just a week ago I felt we didn't necessarily have to acquire a #2, now I'm starting to think that I'd accept any kind of pitching support.

What a weird deadline. Anyone else?
 

E5 Yaz

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Wren is in Atlanta this weekend to watch Teheran(starting tonight) and Vizcaino.

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/knuckleball-news/red-sox-frank-wren-scouting-teheran-vizcaino/
Perhaps. This report is based off why Cafardo says Wren is there. Yet the second paragraph points out Wren has been in Atlanta often this season to watch the Braves.

So, yes, this comes after that Jim Bowden report -- which led to the the Braves GM's denial, and Cafardo saying the Braves GM was just obfuscating.

When Cafardo and Bowden are the primary pushers for this type of report, it's difficult to get worked up

edit: fwiw, there's a video up on espn that has law and olney discussing Teheran and saying that some GMs are of the idea that he won't be dealt unless they get a "Shelby Miller deal"
 

RedOctober3829

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Perhaps. This report is based off why Cafardo says Wren is there. Yet the second paragraph points out Wren has been in Atlanta often this season to watch the Braves.

So, yes, this comes after that Jim Bowden report -- which led to the the Braves GM's denial, and Cafardo saying the Braves GM was just obfuscating.

When Cafardo and Bowden are the primary pushers for this type of report, it's difficult to get worked up
Of course the Braves are going to deny talks are going on. It would take away leverage. Even if that Bowden report didn't come out, knowing that Wren is watching Teheran's start would generate buzz knowing that they need starters.
 

E5 Yaz

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Of course the Braves are going to deny talks are going on. It would take away leverage. Even if that Bowden report didn't come out, knowing that Wren is watching Teheran's start would generate buzz knowing that they need starters.
I'm just saying what the story said. Wren has been in Atlanta a lot this season. It's not unusual, and only gets buzz because of the Bowden report
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Ugh, I'm hating this years trade deadline.

.....

Anyone else?
I'm hating it, too. But it's also fascinating.

Sometimes this team looks like the 2003 offense that could never, ever, be counted out of any game against any pitcher. And other times, they look like they need a minor miracle to go 1-3 against a floundering White Sox team.

Trading away talent this year to make a run makes me queasy, but the idea of watching other teams can play deep into October when Papi, and Wright, and the Killer B's are performing so well does, too. And standing pat isn't exactly what Henry brought DDski in to do.

Again, I just hope the talent evaluations are better than the past couple years, and the team gets the right guys while keeping the right guys. In a way, I'm relieved that Swihart got hurt, since I still see him as the team's primary catcher a year or two down the road, and I don't think anyone's going to want him in a trade package until his ankle is healed.
 

Coachster

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I'm in. It drives me nuts. What worries me the most would be the trade of some of the young guys, and then NOT winning it all, or winning anything. I think this team is flawed beyond one or two starters. The 7th and 8th inning scares me to death. Outfield depth, even after Holt returns and Young is OK. We're an infield injury away from being in deep shit.

My solution is low-priced 4/5 guys, and trading nobody important. I'm big now on Jeremy Hellickson and Ervin Santana. They are what they are, but unlike Buchholz and Rodriguez, their WAR's are above 0.

So if they can get us to the 7th, we'll still be in trouble, but we can blame Matt Barnes and look towards 2017 with some enthusiasm.
 

nvalvo

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I don't think so. He has his history of being a wheeler-dealer, but looking over his transaction history, how many times has he traded premier prospects?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Dave_Dombrowski#Significant_Trades

If you ignore the fire sales in Montreal or Miami, outside of the Cabrera deal, I'm not seeing a whole lot of big name prospects, or at least any that bit him in the ass later. Even the Price deal, he didn't send out much - Smyly is doing admirably but he certainly wasn't highly rated.

I don't think he's going to move Moncada or Benintendi unless he gets a decree from the ownership (which I don't think happens). I could see Devers or Espinoza and for the right guy I'd be ok with those because they are still pretty volatile being so far away.
This is smart. He's dealt blue-chip prospects (Miller and Maybin), but for Cabrera-level superstars. I think everyone is okay with that. If pre-prime Miguel Cabrera's coming back, you don't care as much about who's headed the other way. It's dealing blue-chippers for a Julio Teheran type that I object to.

It would be defensible if we had a clear shot at a championship, and Teheran was the one missing piece, but I don't see that.
 

nvalvo

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Ugh, I'm hating this years trade deadline. I don't have much confidence in our current rotation at all outside of Steven Wright. And even then, a 31-year-old knuckler is bound to regress even slightly at some point, right? ...Right? I think Price will be fine but he has gotten shelled in a handful of starts, and then I realize that this is also the first year out of seven. He has a current RA/9IP of 4.76.

Then, I look at the trade market options that have been floated around. Sonny Gray? He's been solid but not an ace for, what, his last 15+ starts? Teheran is pretty darn good but I've read numerous suggestions stating that he's out-pitching his peripherals. Definitely a player I'd love to have but I'd rather save my top chips for a "true #1" - whatever that means at this juncture. With Wright being the only consistently great pitcher, I don't know if we need a #1 or #3-5. Just a week ago I felt we didn't necessarily have to acquire a #2, now I'm starting to think that I'd accept any kind of pitching support.

What a weird deadline. Anyone else?
Gray has not been solid at all. His rate stats look bad (walk and HR rates way up, mediocre strikeout rate), and he hasn't been especially unlucky. I know Oakland's defense is horrible, but unless you believe that the HR spike is just random chance, he's basically having Clay Buchholz' season, but in a pitcher's park.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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This is smart. He's dealt blue-chip prospects (Miller and Maybin), but for Cabrera-level superstars. I think everyone is okay with that. If pre-prime Miguel Cabrera's coming back, you don't care as much about who's headed the other way. It's dealing blue-chippers for a Julio Teheran type that I object to.

It would be defensible if we had a clear shot at a championship, and Teheran was the one missing piece, but I don't see that.
This is definitely where I'm at. I just don't see Teheran being either the missing piece this year, nor a significant asset for the next 3-4 years over what it will take to get him here. We clearly need a short term pitching boost (either starting pitcher on board steps up with some consistency, an additional bullpen late inning guy or whatever) and we need one to be part of the Killer-B's controlled years or longer and there's nothing in FA or at AA, AAA that looks like that piece.

Out of our top 4 prospects, as OCDSS, Benintendi is the one piece where we could plug a FA in and be okay. Devers may actually have more long term and applicable skill set to the future. Moncada could take over in LF with the option to step in behind Pedroia, Devers to 3rrd/1st/DH, Sam Travis Shaw at 1st/DH and we've got a solid core w/o Benintendi. I just see Benintendi and two other guys in our top ten to be worth more than Teheran.... but I also don't know who that could be that could step in and contribute ASAP and long term other than Teheran.... ugh.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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This is definitely where I'm at. I just don't see Teheran being either the missing piece this year, nor a significant asset for the next 3-4 years over what it will take to get him here. We clearly need a short term pitching boost (either starting pitcher on board steps up with some consistency, an additional bullpen late inning guy or whatever) and we need one to be part of the Killer-B's controlled years or longer and there's nothing in FA or at AA, AAA that looks like that piece.

Out of our top 4 prospects, as OCDSS, Benintendi is the one piece where we could plug a FA in and be okay. Devers may actually have more long term and applicable skill set to the future. Moncada could take over in LF with the option to step in behind Pedroia, Devers to 3rrd/1st/DH, Sam Travis Shaw at 1st/DH and we've got a solid core w/o Benintendi. I just see Benintendi and two other guys in our top ten to be worth more than Teheran.... but I also don't know who that could be that could step in and contribute ASAP and long term other than Teheran.... ugh.
Regardless if he's not a #1, I see Teheran's contract a serious positive for the team. Even if he only pitches like a #3/4 starter on average in Fenway, a $5.4 MM AAV contract (thanks, PP) is still so far under-market that it allows the team a great amount of flexibility to make more changes on the fly until it ends after 2019-20. And Vizcaino was a super-2 so he's under club control through 2019, too. Which is huge with Carson Smith likely out until the ASB next season, and Taz and Koji also likely headed elsewhere.

The more I think about it, the more likely I think the Sox are also laying plans to take on Markakis and his full contract, and making this a true blockbuster transaction. Something like Teheran + Vizcaino + Markakis for 6 guys, with the blow of losing Benintendi perhaps softened in the near term by securing a solid veteran platoon situation in LF until Moncada's had sufficient time to figure out what his ultimate position will be. And there's so much club control left for both Teheran and Vizcaino, that the Braves can hold out for a 6-prospect package with or without including him in it.

Eating Markakis's remaining $25MM also might allow Boston to close the deal for lower-ceiling A-ball prospects after the core SP-RP-OF is covered. This is just spitballing names, okay, but maybe by adding in Markakis's salary the Braves seal the deal for something like Owens + Light + Benintendi + Ball + Rijo + Raudes, instead of something like Owens + Light + Benintendi + Kopech + Chavis + Cosart.

And last, Boston cleared almost all of Markakis's $11 MM AAV of its Salary Tax spreadsheet by outrighting Castillo last week, in a transaction that simply didn't need to happen.
 

E5 Yaz

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Jon Heyman (I know) with another doozy

6. Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens, RHP Michael Kopech and 1B Sam Travis. Since it isn’t clear the A’s will even entertain trade offers for their ace Gray, this one is a major long shot. But it has to have a better chance than these two: Jose Fernandez and Gerrit Cole, two other pitchers the Red Sox called on (“pipe dreams” one rival GM calls those two inquiries). While there’s no evidence Gray is available yet, A’s GM Billy Beane has a history of being willing to try to do anything. The price for a front-line starter is way up, and though Gray is having an uncharacteristically poor season and Beane doesn’t like to sell low, the belief is that he could still get 75 cents on the dollar, or more, for such a beloved ace. Kopech is a talented guy with some questions and Travis is on the D.L. but had a huge spring (“the next Paul Goldschmidt,” one scout said).

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/dream-trade-scenarios/
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Jon Heyman (I know) with another doozy

6. Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens, RHP Michael Kopech and 1B Sam Travis. Since it isn’t clear the A’s will even entertain trade offers for their ace Gray, this one is a major long shot. But it has to have a better chance than these two: Jose Fernandez and Gerrit Cole, two other pitchers the Red Sox called on (“pipe dreams” one rival GM calls those two inquiries). While there’s no evidence Gray is available yet, A’s GM Billy Beane has a history of being willing to try to do anything. The price for a front-line starter is way up, and though Gray is having an uncharacteristically poor season and Beane doesn’t like to sell low, the belief is that he could still get 75 cents on the dollar, or more, for such a beloved ace. Kopech is a talented guy with some questions and Travis is on the D.L. but had a huge spring (“the next Paul Goldschmidt,” one scout said).

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/dream-trade-scenarios/
I dunno.... Gray's stock is pretty low but if this complete deal happened this past offseason, as high as all those guy's value was then... I think it would have been an overpay. I like Gray- but I think ERod has a chance to be as good or as close as Gray has been. Then, add in everyone else and the way Gray has been pitching (and in an extreme pitchers park) and I'm not sure I'd do this- although I do like not losing one of our Big Four prospects
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Man, remember how many people really didn't want them to trade Swihart and Owens for Hamels last year? One year later and one guy has been moved off his position for the foreseeable future and the other guy has been an adventure at AAA and a disaster in MLB. Meanwhile Hamels is going to be an All Star for the best team in the AL - remember how that was the knock against him, that he couldn't hack it in the scary AL?

I feel like there's a lesson in there somewhere, even if it is just "we have no idea what deals are ever on the table."

EDIT: actually more people were willing to deal Owens, but Swihart was very much untouchable.
 

NoXInNixon

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But that was before Vaz came back healthy. They would have been taking a much bigger risk trading away Swihart last year than this year.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Most of the chatter was in Jan/Feb before Vaz's injury happened. This time last year, they were pretty buried in last and wouldn't have made any kind of "buys" to speak of (not that it stopped people around here from speculating).
 

soxhop411

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ARLINGTON, Texas — The scuffling have Red Sox have been looking for help via trade, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Sunday afternoon after the Rangers sent the Sox out of town with a 6-2 loss, but Dombrowski intimated that there aren't many choices out there.

"It’s still early," Dombrowski said. "I can tell you I’ve done a great deal work, there’s five clubs that are willing to talk about it. They’re the same five clubs that have been at it all year, so it’s still a little early for that type of situation. We’ll just see what happens.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/06/dave_dombrowski_on_red_sox_trades_ive_done_a_great_deal_of

More at the link
 

Rasputin

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Jon Heyman (I know) with another doozy

6. Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for Eduardo Rodriguez, Henry Owens, RHP Michael Kopech and 1B Sam Travis. Since it isn’t clear the A’s will even entertain trade offers for their ace Gray, this one is a major long shot. But it has to have a better chance than these two: Jose Fernandez and Gerrit Cole, two other pitchers the Red Sox called on (“pipe dreams” one rival GM calls those two inquiries). While there’s no evidence Gray is available yet, A’s GM Billy Beane has a history of being willing to try to do anything. The price for a front-line starter is way up, and though Gray is having an uncharacteristically poor season and Beane doesn’t like to sell low, the belief is that he could still get 75 cents on the dollar, or more, for such a beloved ace. Kopech is a talented guy with some questions and Travis is on the D.L. but had a huge spring (“the next Paul Goldschmidt,” one scout said).

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/dream-trade-scenarios/
I would like to ask the people who suggest these trades if they realize that trading Eduardo Rodriguez for anyone, no matter how good they are, doesn't solve the problem of not having enough competent starting pitchers.

Regardless if he's not a #1, I see Teheran's contract a serious positive for the team. Even if he only pitches like a #3/4 starter on average in Fenway, a $5.4 MM AAV contract (thanks, PP) is still so far under-market that it allows the team a great amount of flexibility to make more changes on the fly until it ends after 2019-20. And Vizcaino was a super-2 so he's under club control through 2019, too. Which is huge with Carson Smith likely out until the ASB next season, and Taz and Koji also likely headed elsewhere.

The more I think about it, the more likely I think the Sox are also laying plans to take on Markakis and his full contract, and making this a true blockbuster transaction. Something like Teheran + Vizcaino + Markakis for 6 guys, with the blow of losing Benintendi perhaps softened in the near term by securing a solid veteran platoon situation in LF until Moncada's had sufficient time to figure out what his ultimate position will be. And there's so much club control left for both Teheran and Vizcaino, that the Braves can hold out for a 6-prospect package with or without including him in it.

Eating Markakis's remaining $25MM also might allow Boston to close the deal for lower-ceiling A-ball prospects after the core SP-RP-OF is covered. This is just spitballing names, okay, but maybe by adding in Markakis's salary the Braves seal the deal for something like Owens + Light + Benintendi + Ball + Rijo + Raudes, instead of something like Owens + Light + Benintendi + Kopech + Chavis + Cosart.

And last, Boston cleared almost all of Markakis's $11 MM AAV of its Salary Tax spreadsheet by outrighting Castillo last week, in a transaction that simply didn't need to happen.
I have to be honest, the thought of a mega trade for Teheran, Markakis, and Vizcaino makes me all tingly in the sexyparts. If we can keep Moncada, Espinoza, and one of Benintendi/Devers, there is almost no deal I wouldn't like.
 

E5 Yaz

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I have to be honest, the thought of a mega trade for Teheran, Markakis, and Vizcaino makes me all tingly in the sexyparts. If we can keep Moncada, Espinoza, and one of Benintendi/Devers, there is almost no deal I wouldn't like.
You're talking about three of the four biggest chips the Braves have; Freeman being the fourth. If Atlanta is going to put all those chips into one deal, they're darn well going to do it for more than one strong prospect and a bunch of flotsam and jetsam. That's the type of "proposal" fans make and try to defend because it helps their team, and then use convoluted ideas to show how it "benefits" the other team.

In all the trades Atlanta made while dismantling, they focused on getting young arms in return. Even in the Miller trade, they got pitching in addition to Swanson. Outside of Espinoza (and perhaps Kopech), the Red Sox don't have those kind of arms. The presumed package for such a megadeal would have to include at least two of the Sox prime position prospects.

Saving money on the Markakis contract is not a big enough incentive for Atlanta alone. In fact, it likely doesn't matter at all. They dismantled so they could time a resurgence with the opening of the stadium next year. Their payroll will be trending up in the coming years.
 
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Hee Sox Choi

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Teheran's BABIP is .209 and his xFIP is 4.00. Wait for him to regress and then talk to Atlanta again but to give up that much above is dumb. I really hope Dombrowski isn't that stupid. The Kimbrel trade worries me a little bit but Margot was expendable due to our OF. Crap, Margot might have been our LF by now. .297 with a .351 OBP in AAA at age 21. Pretty sweet.
 

Rasputin

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Jim Bowden (I know) today on MLB radio theorized a Dombroski trade of Benitendi, Devers, Kopeck and Owens for Teheran and Vizcaino.
Hell no.

Which is to say nothing of the fact that Markakis pretty much sucks at this point.
Platoon him with Young and you'll get better than league average production from the position.

You're talking about three of the four biggest chips the Braves have; Freeman being the fourth. If Atlanta is going to put all those chips into one deal, they're darn well going to do it for more than one strong prospect and a bunch of flotsam and jetsam. That's the type of "proposal" fans make and try to defend because it helps their team, and then use convoluted ideas to show how it "benefits" the other team.
There are plenty of prospects in the Sox system that aren't the big four and aren't flotsam and jetsam. Kopech, Dubon, Basabe, Lakins, Raudes. Hell, Owens, Elias, and Johnson still have value.
 

ehaz

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Hell no.



Platoon him with Young and you'll get better than league average production from the position.



There are plenty of prospects in the Sox system that aren't the big four and aren't flotsam and jetsam. Kopech, Dubon, Basabe, Lakins, Raudes. Hell, Owens, Elias, and Johnson still have value.
Is that really a hell no? I think that's close to fair value for those two pitchers, even if Teheran is really more of a #3. You still get to keep Moncada and Espinoza. Vizcaino is almost like a second Kimbrel, and has many years of cheap control.
 

Sampo Gida

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I'd love to be able to grab another front line starter but I don't see anyone available that would not cost a ton. I think DD would be best served in trying to shore up the bullpen and give Farrell better options to go to in the 7th and 8th and move Koji, Tazawa and Barnes to lower lev situations.
Man, remember how many people really didn't want them to trade Swihart and Owens for Hamels last year? One year later and one guy has been moved off his position for the foreseeable future and the other guy has been an adventure at AAA and a disaster in MLB. Meanwhile Hamels is going to be an All Star for the best team in the AL - remember how that was the knock against him, that he couldn't hack it in the scary AL?

I feel like there's a lesson in there somewhere, even if it is just "we have no idea what deals are ever on the table."

EDIT: actually more people were willing to deal Owens, but Swihart was very much untouchable.
Its a valid point, we do tend to over value our prospects. There was some concern on how Hamels would fare in the AL East and Fenway, and after the losing streak after the AS break Hamels did not seem enough to turn it around. Also, if we had pulled that trade its unlikely there would have been enough to sign Price, although on second thought I am not so sure that would have been a bad thing (not giving up on Price yet but he has put up a few stinkers ).
 

ArgentinaSOXfan

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Mauricio Dubon has been putting similar or better numbers than Moncada at the same age but he has no hype. Maybe take advantage of the Moncada hype and get a stud and keep Dubon as insurance for SS/2B/3B?
To be honest, I dont want the FO to make stupid decisions based on that we are the Red Sox and we are supposed to be competitive and win every fking year. Thats not true. Neither do I care about this being Papi's last season. Its his call. We cant go all in because he decided to quit after this season.
On the other hand, we wont be able to add (good) pitching in the FA market unless you hit a HR out of nowhere but that almost never happens. The FA class is terrible. So does it make any sense to keep on waiting to make the inevitable move for pitching?
 

smastroyin

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Dubon had a power surge (of sorts) early but has largely been a singles hitter. He gets on base and can play SS but I wouldn't imply he's a similar prospect to Moncada.

I'm not against the idea of trying to find some value in other ways with all of these guys but I don't know that I would specifically look at Moncada as being a helium illusion.

I guess what I'm saying is this sounds similar to when people wanted to trade Xander because Marrero was hitting in Portland.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Jim Bowden (I know) today on MLB radio theorized a Dombroski trade of Benitendi, Devers, Kopeck and Owens for Teheran and Vizcaino.
I think I'd do that deal. I'd probably push to get Markakis if doing so would reduce the hit from some minor pieces. I do think he'd make an effective platoon partner for Young, he's continued to post a good isoD and mostly decent production against RHP, and the Sox would need to move in a different LF direction for 2017-18 anyway.

That being said, this proposal alone would keep Moncada and Espinoza in the system, who are my two most-wanted-to-keep. Benintendi's a jewel, of course. I think he'll be a star, and it really hurts to put him on the table. And while I love Devers' easy power and his increased BB rate is wonderful to see this season, Ockimey has been translating his LHH power from batting practice into games a bit better.

So I think it's a pretty reasonable package, come August 1.

However, no matter how much we may want DDski to fix the team ASAP, the Braves have no reason to budge on an asking price that surely includes both Moncada and Benintendi until they start feeling some pressure themselves to seal the deal (and considering Miller's trade return, I think it's reasonable to assume this); only the trade deadline's going to create sell-side urgency.
 

Rasputin

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Is that really a hell no? I think that's close to fair value for those two pitchers, even if Teheran is really more of a #3. You still get to keep Moncada and Espinoza. Vizcaino is almost like a second Kimbrel, and has many years of cheap control.
Yes it is. I don't think I am giving up two of the big four for anything. Maybe that's stupid, but with the exception of Espinoza, they look like they're going to be contributing at the major league level very soon.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Yes it is. I don't think I am giving up two of the big four for anything. Maybe that's stupid, but with the exception of Espinoza, they look like they're going to be contributing at the major league level very soon.
Maybe it depends on your definition of "very soon," but Devers right now is 19 in A Ball and putting up a .235/.299/.336 line. For all the talk of his prodigious power, he has four home runs and nine doubles. He's got a lot of potential, and I'm excited to see what he develops in to also, but I think we're looking at three years at least until he makes it to the majors.
 

nighthob

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I would agree with that in general terms, and it's part of why I'd prefer they look for a lower cost end-of-rotation starter or a bullpen arm. Moncada and Benintendi will both be in Boston come September (Benintendi possibly sooner) while the A Ball players have less value (due to time delay). My preference is that any deal be built around Devers & Kopech, but I'm not sure what that gets you in this in this hyperinflationary market.
 

PapaSox

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I would like to ask the people who suggest these trades if they realize that trading Eduardo Rodriguez for anyone, no matter how good they are, doesn't solve the problem of not having enough competent starting pitchers.

Agree. This seems to be a strange line of thought. Why trade EdRod away? I can understand Buchholz/Kelly but not EdRod.


I have to be honest, the thought of a mega trade for Teheran, Markakis, and Vizcaino makes me all tingly in the sexyparts. If we can keep Moncada, Espinoza, and one of Benintendi/Devers, there is almost no deal I wouldn't like.
I think I'd let Benintendi and Devers go but the others I'd want to hang on to. That's a nice package and I'd be willing to let some promising prospects go to get it. The sexparts did not tingle.
 

Rasputin

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Maybe it depends on your definition of "very soon," but Devers right now is 19 in A Ball and putting up a .235/.299/.336 line. For all the talk of his prodigious power, he has four home runs and nine doubles. He's got a lot of potential, and I'm excited to see what he develops in to also, but I think we're looking at three years at least until he makes it to the majors.
Yeah, Devers isn't very close, but if we assume that Moncada and Benintendi continue to perform well for the remainder of the season, they'll start 2017 at AAA and have a reasonable chance of being significant contributors at the major league level at positions where we're going to have vacancies.