Ue-2016: A Rapidly Decaying Isotope?

Savin Hillbilly

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Koji now has allowed a .953 OPS over the past 28 days, encompassing nine games and 36 PA. His season OPS allowed is a still-respectable .699, but his ERA of 4.78 and FIP of 3.73 are career worsts, as are his HR/9 of 1.7 and BB/9 of 2.7. He's still striking lots of people out, so there's that.

The PitchFX story is not encouraging either. According to Brooks Baseball, his FB velocity has fallen every year since his magical 2013 (90 to 89 to 88 to 87.5 this year). The core of the problem, though, seems to be his splitter. Its velocity has fallen along with that of the FB--it's now a sub-80mph pitch for the first time--but there has also been a slight but perhaps crucial decrease in its downward movement from month to month this year. A splitter that's just a little slower and breaks just a little less sharply out of the zone is, perhaps, a splitter that's a lot more hittable. Certainly batters have been hitting it: SLG by month on the splitter has been .060, .520, .710.

Is this the promis'd end? Or image of that horror? Discuss.
 
czar

czar

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We are certainly seeing regression (expected) from a very old pitcher, which is really a continuation of the last few years.

That said, he's still posting ridiculous (16+%) SwStr% rates and has a 2.53 SIERA on the season (his xFIP/FIP by month are also pretty solid, with the biggest problem being his June FIP due to last night). He's also generally outperformed his FIP/xFIP throughout his career, so one could argue that "regression" with regard to ensuring weak contact and suppressing HR/9 should merely bring him closer to league average (making his DIPS adequate predictors).

It might not be a terrible idea to give him a break (2 week DL stint for a "tired arm?"), but I think it's still reasonable that he can be effective for the rest of the year as long as we acknowledge he's not going to be a sub-2.00 ERA guy.
 
DeadlySplitter

DeadlySplitter

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What was discouraging about yesterday is that he had plenty of rest (believe he last pitched Saturday?) and still looked flat at a key time. Farrell has been using him more sparingly already, but it looks like in 1/4, 1/3 of his appearances he's not going to have it regardless of rest.

Losing Carson Smith sucks because the 8th inning is now pretty damn dicey about half the time.
 
Rasputin

Rasputin

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I'm concerned and if like to see some of his innings go to Barnes and Ross.
 
MadStork

MadStork

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Koji! Great pitcher yes, old pitcher yes. Was he worth a second year, Yes. The problem is not Koji. The problem is the Smith injury. Smith injury was huge. Is Koji in decline? Im sure he is. Again, what are the options when your Cap strapped with more than one CCrawford Contract.

Farrell has his moments. At some point, if the Barnes's and Layne's are not trusted, give your system a chance. Light, Martin, Shephard?
 
terrynever

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Would the Yankees even consider trading Andrew Miller to Boston? Probably not. What would it take to bring him back to Boston?
 
WalletTrack

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Ha! Isotope! Dig it-inspired.
At the game last night-the lead off single was a bad omen, folks were immediately uneasy. Seemed the manager was managing like it's 2013.
Especially after Tazawa went K,1-3,K in 7th.. why not have him start the eight..
Felt for Koji falling to crouch covering his face. I think HE thinks he done. Koji never should have been in there after Cabrera.
He was great to watch while it lasted but no high leverage, anymore.
 
simplicio

simplicio

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WalletTrack said:
Ha! Isotope! Dig it-inspired.
At the game last night-the lead off single was a bad omen, folks were immediately uneasy. Seemed the manager was managing like it's 2013.
Especially after Tazawa went K,1-3,K in 7th.. why not have him start the eight..
Felt for Koji falling to crouch covering his face. I think HE thinks he done. Koji never should have been in there after Cabrera.
He was great to watch while it lasted but no high leverage, anymore.
Click to expand...
More Taz isn't the answer; we've seen how he can fall apart through a season already, and his splitter can be abused just as much as Koji's. No way he should be taking multiple innings with a lead unless we're in playoff mode.
 
SMU_Sox

SMU_Sox

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czar said:
We are certainly seeing regression (expected) from a very old pitcher, which is really a continuation of the last few years.

That said, he's still posting ridiculous (16+%) SwStr% rates and has a 2.53 SIERA on the season (his xFIP/FIP by month are also pretty solid, with the biggest problem being his June FIP due to last night). He's also generally outperformed his FIP/xFIP throughout his career, so one could argue that "regression" with regard to ensuring weak contact and suppressing HR/9 should merely bring him closer to league average (making his DIPS adequate predictors).

It might not be a terrible idea to give him a break (2 week DL stint for a "tired arm?"), but I think it's still reasonable that he can be effective for the rest of the year as long as we acknowledge he's not going to be a sub-2.00 ERA guy.
Click to expand...
Even his mediocre velocity on fastballs won't fully explain a 1.7+ HR/9. (http://examiningbaseball.weebly.com/fastball-velocity-and-hr9.html). I can't find anything that alarming on fangraphs aside from his home run rates and possibly a mediocre strand rate 69.6%. Isn't this more likely that instead of him being complete toast that he is giving up an unsubstanable amount of homers in a small sample size as a reliever? He won't be Koji 2013 going forward (getting old stinks) but if I had to put money where my thumbs are I'd wager he's closer to a 3.00 ERA guy than a 4.78 one. There are a few other fascinating pieces floating around looking at the relationship between velocity and home run rates - so far from what I've digested this morning none of them indicate Koji should be this home run prone going forward. Fingers crossed.
 
P

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Rasputin said:
I'm concerned and if like to see some of his innings go to Barnes and Ross.
Click to expand...
Hasn't Heath Hembree been significantly better than both of them?

Could someone tell me more about Chandler Shephard? His strikeout rate is ridiculous.
 
pantsparty

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SMU_Sox said:
Even his mediocre velocity on fastballs won't fully explain a 1.7+ HR/9. (http://examiningbaseball.weebly.com/fastball-velocity-and-hr9.html). I can't find anything that alarming on fangraphs aside from his home run rates and possibly a mediocre strand rate 69.6%. Isn't this more likely that instead of him being complete toast that he is giving up an unsubstanable amount of homers in a small sample size as a reliever? He won't be Koji 2013 going forward (getting old stinks) but if I had to put money where my thumbs are I'd wager he's closer to a 3.00 ERA guy than a 4.78 one. There are a few other fascinating pieces floating around looking at the relationship between velocity and home run rates - so far from what I've digested this morning none of them indicate Koji should be this home run prone going forward. Fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
One thing to note about Koji is that he has a much higher than might be expected spinrate on his 4-seam fastball. Over the past season and half, Kimbrel has an average 4-seam spinrate of 2160. Tazawa has an average of 2147. Koji averages 2397. So while those guys throw a whole lot harder, it's possible that Koji's fastball is harder to track relative to his split-finger because it sinks less than it "should" because of its spinrate relative to other pitchers.
 
joe dokes

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FWIW-- As I was fading in and out of sleep -- awakened by a shrieking Joe Castig -- one of the radio guys said last night that Farrell had said that they (whoever "they" are --Farrell, Willis, Pedroia??) noticed that koji was (I can't remember which) either keeping or not keeping one of his legs (again, cant remember if it was landing or push-off -- IT WAS LATE) straight (they used the term "collapsing") and it was affecting the splitter.

tldr--"they" found something mechanical.
 
Max Power

Max Power

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SMU_Sox said:
Even his mediocre velocity on fastballs won't fully explain a 1.7+ HR/9. (http://examiningbaseball.weebly.com/fastball-velocity-and-hr9.html). I can't find anything that alarming on fangraphs aside from his home run rates and possibly a mediocre strand rate 69.6%. Isn't this more likely that instead of him being complete toast that he is giving up an unsubstanable amount of homers in a small sample size as a reliever? He won't be Koji 2013 going forward (getting old stinks) but if I had to put money where my thumbs are I'd wager he's closer to a 3.00 ERA guy than a 4.78 one. There are a few other fascinating pieces floating around looking at the relationship between velocity and home run rates - so far from what I've digested this morning none of them indicate Koji should be this home run prone going forward. Fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
I know this is what we do around here, but the numbers are basically irrelevant with Koji. Watching the game tells you everything you need to know. When he's throwing his good splitter, he's the same old Koji, even with a 86-88 fastball. When the splitter doesn't move, he's throwing batting practice and gives up a homer per inning.

It would be amazing if it really were a mechanical issue that's solved already. But if age or injury is making him more likely to throw flat splitters, there's no way to project which Koji we're going to see over the rest of the season.
 
Mugsy's Jock

Mugsy's Jock

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Oddly, I find myself hoping more that Koji's final appearance with the Red Sox results in a save than I do that Papi's final at bat results in a base hit.
 
Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'd like to see Barnes handed a 7th or 8th inning "hold" opportunity-hi-leverage time. He's been pitching well and Koji and Taz haven't been.
 
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