Xander and Mookie in 2016

pokey_reese

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If he's really an "above average defender," then his defense is likely to measure higher if anything, since his advanced defensive numbers were essentially average by both UZR (1.0) and DRS (0). I'm not sure where you got the idea that he had the numbers of "one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball."

I think an average defensive shortstop is exactly what he is at this stage in his career, so I think the likeliest result is little to no change in his dWAR, though of course we all know how volatile those numbers are from year to year, so who knows.
I would assume that he is referring to Fangraphs, which had him as the 9th best SS in all of baseball based on their defense component of fWAR, right between Tulo and Iglesias.

link: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
 

EricFeczko

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This is a massive straw man.

No one is talking about ignoring Xander's change of approach nor has anyone indicated, at least not in this thread, that they think 2015 Xander is forever Xander. The general discussion has assumed regression from a .372 BABIP. But, the discussion of expected range for 2016 has matched a belief that Xander made clear adjustments that produced a high BABIP and that a high BABIP is sustainable. Additionally, a lot of people, myself included, think that the power he showcased earlier in his career is likely to come back, at least to some degree.

Basically, I haven't seen anyone express a disbelief in his development. But, BABIP regression based decline will happen this year as a virtual certainty. I'd also argue his defense is likely to not measure as high, because he's probably not one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, even though he has developed into an above average defender.

You combine the above, and it will take a dramatic improvement in the power/discipline categories for him to be as good as he was last year. I think, even for those optimistic about his development trajectory, it's hard to project that level of improvement year to year. I do think it's possible, but the more likely scenario is a modest decline that couples regression, as discussed above, with skill and performance progression in other areas. To reiterate, I am not saying he won't continue to develop. He absolutely will. I think that in a few years time, he will likely be a true talent 4+ win player, and this year will be a step in that direction. It will look, superficially, like a step back, only because of his BABIP overperformance last year and the likely fact that the defensive metrics modestly overstated his defensive skill because, SSS.
From Iayork's post above:

Quick and dirty ... Xander had 196 hits in 2015. With a .372 BABIP, that means 572 balls in play. If he had a .325 BABIP instead, it would mean 527 * .325 = 171 hits, for a .279 BA. That leaves him 25 bases short, so if 8 of his hits were home runs instead of singles, that would pretty much make up for it as far as total bases go.

He hit 7 home runs in 2015, so 8 more home runs would be 15. Could Xander be a 15 home run hitter? Well, he hit 12 in Boston in 2014, when he was 21, so it seems very realistic to expect that sort of modest power uptick from 2015.

I think that even accounting for a lower BABIP, it wouldn't be surprising to see Bogaerts contribute pretty much the same in 2016 as in 2015
.
Sure, his defensive measures may regress. However such numbers are unreliable, and therefore we really shouldn't pay close attention to defensive measures. Perhaps we shouldn't focus on WAR as a metric for measuring Xander's progress.
It'd be nice to use a single number encompassing one player's value. If we don't have a reliable version of that, it is better to split up his contributions into their respective factors (i.e. use multiple metrics).
In terms of pure offensive numbers, it wouldn't take a massive improvement in the power/discipline categories, it would take a return to his 2015 rates (coupled with a .325 BABIP).

All these questions are why I think Xander may be the single most fascinating player to watch in all of MLB this year. You can make a plausible scenario for him going .300/.370/.480 or .240/.280/.330, depending on how the possible developments in approach, contact, discipline and power play out.
I agree completely. It's hard to be either pessimistic or optimistic regarding Xander. He's demonstrated a power/patience approach and last year he demonstrated he can make contact and put the ball in play. This is the year to see whether he can merge those types of productiveness and maintain or improve his offensive output.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I would assume that he is referring to Fangraphs, which had him as the 9th best SS in all of baseball based on their defense component of fWAR, right between Tulo and Iglesias.

link: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
dWAR is a counting stat, and you get points just for showing up. Being 9th in dWAR is not that impressive when you are 2nd in innings played, as Xander was. Not that there isn't value in showing up every day and putting a ton of innings on the board, but that's not really specifically defensive value, even if FG counts it as such for convenience' sake.

(Just to be clear, I'm not trashing Xander's defense; there's nothing wrong with being an average defensive shortstop.)
 

soxhop411

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This seems like the most recent Xander-related thread. Any word on his status after getting hit in the wrist (I think) tonight?
This seems like the most recent Xander-related thread. Any word on his status after getting hit in the wrist (I think) tonight?
“@TimBritton: Bogaerts said he’s good, although a little anxious about how he’ll wake up tomorrow. No wrap on his wrist.”

“@JMastrodonato: Bogaerts: It feels pretty strong right now but tomorrow it’ll probably wake up feeling bad so I’ll be anxious to see how it feels tomorrow.”
 

HriniakPosterChild

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It looked like he was going to be hit in the face live, then the slo-mi replay showed that his helmet came off before he fell and hit his head against the dirt. And all of this after there were a series of sliders low and away. Definitely a scary plate appearance to me, and I watched it from my couch.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Alex Spier with an interesting stat on Xander:

"The 23-year-old has now scored eight times from first on doubles this year – a trick that, according to Baseball-Reference.com, no one else in the majors has accomplished more than three times this year."
 

Spelunker

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Alex Spier with an interesting stat on Xander:

"The 23-year-old has now scored eight times from first on doubles this year – a trick that, according to Baseball-Reference.com, no one else in the majors has accomplished more than three times this year."
It'd be interesting to see that expressed as a percentage of chances. It may be that he's a really, really good baserunner (which the eye test suggests) but it's also potentially a function of being a singles hitter on a team that hits a lot of doubles.
 

nvalvo

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It'd be interesting to see that expressed as a percentage of chances. It may be that he's a really, really good baserunner (which the eye test suggests) but it's also potentially a function of being a singles hitter on a team that hits a lot of doubles.
It helps to hit in front of Ortiz, who is leading the majors in doubles (tied with Altuve).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It helps to hit in front of Ortiz, who is leading the majors in doubles (tied with Altuve).
Seven of those scores from first came on doubles by Ortiz who not only hits a lot of them but hits doubles that, anecdotally, tend to be no-doubters whether they're in the gap, off the Monster, or near-home runs.
 

pokey_reese

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Since this thread got bumped, it's interesting to look at how the expected drop in BABIP has affected X, his WAR, and his development to this point in the season.

The answer is... just how people thought. BABIP is down 44 points, and his BA fell almost the same amount, 40 points (from .320 to .280), however his offense is still good because he has increased his walk rate (from 4.9 to 7.8%) and his ISO is up a bit (.134 vs .101), as a few of those singles turned into doubles, so his wRC+ has actually improved.

So, pretty much in line with the conversation from the winter, we are watching a guy getting less lucky on balls in play, but seeing his value increase because he is maturing as a hitter in other metrics. He is actually on pace to even potentially increase his fWAR. Nice.
 

BestGameEvah

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Also from the 108 stitch newsletter:
BOGAERTS ON THE BAGS: As Brett Cowett writes for Baseball Prospectus, Bogaerts –bases.who is on pace for 30 steals – is becoming a game-changer on the bases.

If you recall last year, Bogie stated a desire to increase the SB's. So, he more than doubled his attempts in 2015 and already has 5 in 2016. The coaching staff is constantly reminding Xander that he has a weapon with his legs.
I think that is why we say him swipe third in Tuesday's game. He had previously watched Pedroia score on a passed ball. He is thinking aggressive and trusts his instincts to go there ( knowing Flowers was catching helped.)
 

DJnVa

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Any ideas on Mookie's 19/4 K/W ratio? It's still early, but the last few years he's been:

2014: 1.5 to 1
2015: 1.8 to 1
2016: 4.8 to 1

Of note, 11 of his 19 Ks came in his first 7 games, and in his last 14 games he's only K'ed 8 times. It looks like he figured out whatever the early K issue was, but he's still not walking much.
 

bellowthecat

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I am pleased to see that so far Bogaerts has maintained his strikeout reduction from last year as that was one of my biggest worries. He's lowered his SwStr% and O-swing% a little bit and increased his walk rate despite seeing a career high number of pitches in the zone. Unfortunately his GB% is still going the wrong way (22nd highest in the majors this year), but once he makes that adjustment the sky's the limit. I feel like I've said this before, but really his development these last few years has been so much fun to watch.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Any ideas on Mookie's 19/4 K/W ratio?
He's swinging-and-missing away and down more than in the past (SSS). Seeing a few more cutters and change's, nothing startling. Just seems like, with all the righties we're seeing, he's chasing more stuff out of the zone. Xander's actually seeing a similar pattern (uptick of down/away pitches), but fighting off a few more of those down ones while whiffing a bunch more away.
 

smastroyin

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There is a long way to go but I think most people in this thread would have bet against Xander being so much better with the bat than Mookie after 30 games.

Xander still has a high BABIP - .360. Probably he won't be carrying that through. But, he's been hitting more doubles (on pace for 50+) and that has propelled his ISO to be up from 101 to 138. As well, his BB% is up from 4.9% to 8.1%, bringing his IsoD up from 035 to 059. If those two improvements are "real" then even if he backs down to that .320ish level BABIP he'll be as valuable as he was last year. And of course, if that doubles power turns into HR as the weather gets better, then he could be much much better. I wouldn't bank on it quite yet, of course.

Of course it is just confirmation bias at this point and the sample is still small, but it is nice to see that at this point Xander seems to be progressing in the way that many of us thought he would. Hopefully he keeps it up.

Mookie I presume is just in a slump. He started slow, had a great week or so, and then has been terrible the last two.

Small samples let me say anything I want, of course.
 

smastroyin

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Don't look now, but while you weren't paying attention, Mookie has finally turned it on. He's 354/396/750 over the last two weeks and is now second on the team in HR.

This is a bit hidden because of course Xander has also been on fire, hitting 408/453/612 over the same span.

And last, JBJ over that span has been 421/542/658.

What can you say? Fun times. Bad times will come, sooner than we want, but it's a joy to watch right now.

Streaks are streaks, but it is also nice to see Xander and JBJ bringing up their ISOd which we can hope will continue even when their BA's drop. And while I'm sure we would all like to see more HR power from Xander, that 2B fueled 200 ISO makes the AVG look a lot less "cheap."
 

Devizier

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The new killer bees?

Bagwell (1998) 147 G, 162 WRC+
Biggio (1998) 160 G, 145 WRC+ (50 SB!)
Bell (1998) 156 G, 129 WRC+

Bradley (2016) 44 G, 178 WRC+
Bogaerts (2016) 44 G, 148 WRC+
Betts (2016) 45 G, 119 WRC+

I mean, a long way to go...
 

Sam Ray Not

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Don't forget the 4th Killer Bee with his .976 OPS in 34 games of A ball at age 21.

But yeah, an even longer way to go with him...
 

smastroyin

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We'll wait until he is conquering Portland. At least he got a hit last night.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
What can you say? Fun times. Bad times will come, sooner than we want, but it's a joy to watch right now.
We really should stop and smell the roses, shouldn't we? This is what we dreamed about back in the winter of 2013-14 when Xander and JBJ were top-50 prospects and Mookie had just flashed onto the radar screen with his great year in Greenville and Salem. It looked like it might be a mirage for a while there, but the oasis is all the sweeter for that. Sure, they're not going to stay this hot, but we have three legit young stars here. Good times, indeed.
 

SouthernBoSox

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So I hope people are appreciating getting to watch two 23 year old superstars on the same team.

This isn't the norm.
 

ifmanis5

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So I hope people are appreciating getting to watch two 23 year old superstars on the same team.

This isn't the norm.
Amen.

And if you throw JBJ (age 26) in there, the Sox have 3 players in the current Top 30 WAR hitters in all of MLB who are comfortably under 30 right now. X at #4, JBJ at #19 and Betts at #28. FWIW, Papi at #11 and Pedey at #21 give Boston 5 players in the Top 30 WAR batters. Cubs have 3 in the Top 10.

LINK: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
 

Hank Scorpio

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Amen.

And if you throw JBJ (age 26) in there, the Sox have 3 players in the current Top 30 WAR hitters in all of MLB who are comfortably under 30 right now. X at #4, JBJ at #19 and Betts at #28. FWIW, Papi at #11 and Pedey at #21 give Boston 5 players in the Top 30 WAR batters. Cubs have 3 in the Top 10.

LINK: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
Travis Shaw not far behind, at #33.
 

smastroyin

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As for the original question of the thread. Given that WAR is accumulative (though you can have negative WAR), how are we doing so far.

Looking at FG:
Xander 2015: 4.3 WAR
Xander 2016: 2.9 WAR, 9.0 WAR pace (this kind of makes some assumptions about positional adjustment and replacement level, but that's fine)

Mookie 2015: 4.8 WAR
Mookie 2016: 2.1 WAR, 6.5 WAR pace (same thing re: assumptions)
Mookie as CF 2016: 2.4 WAR, 7.5 WAR pace (this is just what he would look like if we gave him the CF positional adjustment as opposed to the RF one and there is absolutely no reason to think he would have the same fielding numbers, etc., but I add it to remind folks that his WAR will necessarily be lower from his position change)

I wouldn't expect current pace to continue, really, and especially defense will have a bunch of fluctuation. But, both guys are on pace to improve rather than regress from 2015 numbers, and Xander may accumulate more WAR by the end of June than he did all of 2015.

bWAR:
Xander 2015: 4.6 WAR
Xander 2016: 2.7 WAR, 8.4 pace

Mookie 2015: 6.0 WAR
Mookie 2016: 2.4 WAR, 7.5 pace
 
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Bunt4aTriple

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There is a long way to go but I think most people in this thread would have bet against Xander being so much better with the bat than Mookie after 30 games.

....

Mookie I presume is just in a slump. He started slow, had a great week or so, and then has been terrible the last two.

Small samples let me say anything I want, of course.
I just opened this thread for the first time in a while and this post was at the top. I love it!

What this team is doing is video game on easy-esque. It is such a pleasure to root for them.
 

derekson

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As for the original question of the thread. Given that WAR is accumulative (though you can have negative WAR), how are we doing so far.

Looking at FG:
Xander 2015: 4.3 WAR
Xander 2016: 2.9 WAR, 9.0 WAR pace (this kind of makes some assumptions about positional adjustment and replacement level, but that's fine)

Mookie 2015: 4.8 WAR
Mookie 2016: 2.1 WAR, 6.5 WAR pace (same thing re: assumptions)
Mookie as CF 2016: 2.4 WAR, 7.5 WAR pace (this is just what he would look like if we gave him the CF positional adjustment as opposed to the RF one and there is absolutely no reason to think he would have the same fielding numbers, etc., but I add it to remind folks that his WAR will necessarily be lower from his position change)

I wouldn't expect current pace to continue, really, and especially defense will have a bunch of fluctuation. But, both guys are on pace to improve rather than regress from 2015 numbers, and Xander may accumulate more WAR by the end of June than he did all of 2015.

bWAR:
Xander 2015: 4.6 WAR
Xander 2016: 2.7 WAR, 8.4 pace

Mookie 2015: 6.0 WAR
Mookie 2016: 2.4 WAR, 7.5 pace
Not necessarily. If he's better in RF by an amount that is larger than the difference in the position adjustment, then his WAR could be higher as an RF. In theory the position adjustment is supposed to be about the average difference in defensive value between a defender of similar ability at each position, so if a player translates "typically" then his WAR should be the same in either position.
 

Wake's knuckle

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indeed.

Right...but...no one ever projected him at 30+ right?
Well, 8 of his 14 HRs are of the "just Enough" variety, as judged by hittracker. That's leading the league. And in the past, players that have a year with unusually high HR totals relative to the rest of their careers have a lot of these types of HRs. While the ones he has hit are in the bank, it would not be surprising at all to see his HR rate tail off.
 

BaseballJones

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I'd be very surprised if he ended with 30+ homers, for the very reason Wake's knuckle points out. I still expect his final numbers to be in the "superstar" range, but he's just not a big-time home run guy. I think he's on a great tear here, but I don't see him with more than 30, never mind 40. That's ok...I'll be perfectly happy with 27 homers and everything else he brings to the table.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I'd be very surprised if he ended with 30+ homers, for the very reason Wake's knuckle points out. I still expect his final numbers to be in the "superstar" range, but he's just not a big-time home run guy. I think he's on a great tear here, but I don't see him with more than 30, never mind 40. That's ok...I'll be perfectly happy with 27 homers and everything else he brings to the table.
Mookie's #1 comp to me after watching him in 2014 was Gary Sheffield. Watching what he's done in 2015-16 hasn't made me change my mind one bit.

Sheffield hit 33 HR as 23-year old in 1992.

So while it may not be this year, in my mind there are definitely going to be some 30+ HR seasons out there for Mookie. And a 40 HR season shouldn't be taken off the table just yet, either.