I would love to see the research behind how many pitchers have debuted as teenagers and become standouts.
Infinite trade speculation
- Thread starter dhappy42
- Start date
So fuck it, I do the same in my posts.[/QUOTE]
Please provide us with a well-researched list of these teenagers became standouts in MLB. And next time, when you say something like you did above, back it up with facts.
And I think I can speak for the group here in saying that up is a good goal for you.
I was curious over lunch so I googled "MLB pitchers who debuted before they were 20" and found this link: http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/list/201206/mlbs-greatest-teenage-debut-seasons#1
This list included the following pitchers:
This site lists the youngest player in MLB at any given time, many of whom were under 20. Some noteworthy names from that list:
This list included the following pitchers:
- Babe Ruth
- Bob Feller (the first one I thought of before googling)
- Joe Nuxhall (debuted at 15! during WWII. Ended up with the Reds record for most games pitched in a career by a LHP)
- David Clyde
- Dwight Gooden
This site lists the youngest player in MLB at any given time, many of whom were under 20. Some noteworthy names from that list:
- Tim McCarver
- Booby V
- Bert Blyleven
- Jack Clark
- Ramon Martinez
- Steve Avery
- Rich Garces
- Julian Tavares
Pitchers 20 or under in MLB
2016 - None
2015 - Roberto Osuna (20), Miguel Castro (20)
2014 - None
2013 - Jose Fernandez (20), Taijuan Walker (20)
2012 - Dylan Bundy (19), Jacob Turner (20), Tyler Skaggs (20)
2011 - Arodys Vizcaino (20), Julio Teheran (20), Jordan Lyles (20), Jacob Turner (20)
2010 - Madison Bumgarner (20), Jenrry Meija (20)
2009 - Madison Bumgarner (19), Rick Porcello (20)
2008 - Clayton Kershaw (20)
2007 - None
A pretty impressive group, generally, although Bumgarner and Bundy I think are the only legit teenagers in the past 10 years, and like smas says, the reason they debuted so early is because they had excellent pedigree and pitched exceptionally well to get there. And many of them didn't exactly set the world on fire upon their first exposure to MLB. There hasn't been a player as young as 18 in MLB since A-Rod....22 years ago.
Good lord, Jose Fernandez went straight from A+ in 2012 to the big leagues in 2013 and dominated. That guy is ridiculous.
EDIT: Woah, the ESPN database has some wildly incorrect age filters. Updated.
2016 - None
2015 - Roberto Osuna (20), Miguel Castro (20)
2014 - None
2013 - Jose Fernandez (20), Taijuan Walker (20)
2012 - Dylan Bundy (19), Jacob Turner (20), Tyler Skaggs (20)
2011 - Arodys Vizcaino (20), Julio Teheran (20), Jordan Lyles (20), Jacob Turner (20)
2010 - Madison Bumgarner (20), Jenrry Meija (20)
2009 - Madison Bumgarner (19), Rick Porcello (20)
2008 - Clayton Kershaw (20)
2007 - None
A pretty impressive group, generally, although Bumgarner and Bundy I think are the only legit teenagers in the past 10 years, and like smas says, the reason they debuted so early is because they had excellent pedigree and pitched exceptionally well to get there. And many of them didn't exactly set the world on fire upon their first exposure to MLB. There hasn't been a player as young as 18 in MLB since A-Rod....22 years ago.
Good lord, Jose Fernandez went straight from A+ in 2012 to the big leagues in 2013 and dominated. That guy is ridiculous.
EDIT: Woah, the ESPN database has some wildly incorrect age filters. Updated.
Last edited:
Play Index shows 327 guys who pitched in the majors at 19 or younger--here are some of the more familiar names:
Bert Blyleven
Gary Nolan
Chief Bender
Larry Dierker
Rube Bressler
Hal Newhouser
Smoky Joe Wood
Catfish Hunter
Felix Hernandez
Don Gullett
Jim Palmer
Walter Johnson
Sam McDowell
Ralph Branca
Don Drysdale
Sandy Koufax
Waite Hoyt
Vida Blue
Frank Tanana
Denny McLain
Herb Pennock
Fernando Valenzuela
Blue Moon Odom
Red Ruffing
Wilbur Wood
Dave McNally
Ken Holtzman
Claude Osteen
Early Wynn
That was an unfamiliar name to me. Based on his Wikipedia page, he seemed like an amazing guy.
Just in keeping with the title of the thread, here are some of the "best" pitchers who could be FA at the end of the year:
Rich Hill
Andrew Cashner
Clay Buchholz
Jorge de la Rosa
Ivan Nova
Edinson Volquez
Kris Medlen
Scott Kazmir
James Shields (if he opts out, which seems highly unlikely)
That's pretty rough. However, the whole 2018 class could be totally nuts, although a bunch of these guys will get locked up or not opt out:
Bryce Harper
Josh Donaldson
Andrew McCutchen
Adam Jones
David Price
Jose Fernandez
Manny Machado
Jason Heyward
Adrian Gonzalez
Garrett Richards
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Harvey
Adam Wainwright
a bunch of high end closer-types
Lots of speculative possibilities in there.
Rich Hill
Andrew Cashner
Clay Buchholz
Jorge de la Rosa
Ivan Nova
Edinson Volquez
Kris Medlen
Scott Kazmir
James Shields (if he opts out, which seems highly unlikely)
That's pretty rough. However, the whole 2018 class could be totally nuts, although a bunch of these guys will get locked up or not opt out:
Bryce Harper
Josh Donaldson
Andrew McCutchen
Adam Jones
David Price
Jose Fernandez
Manny Machado
Jason Heyward
Adrian Gonzalez
Garrett Richards
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Harvey
Adam Wainwright
a bunch of high end closer-types
Lots of speculative possibilities in there.
18-year-old Felix Hernandez started 2004 in high A ball and was in the majors by summer of '05 at age 19. In '04 he was up to AA in time to make 10 starts, then began '05 in AAA for 14 more before the Ms gave into the obvious reality that he had nothing left to prove. That's one example of how a meteoric rise can work. If Espinoza can make it to AA in time to dominate that competition this year, then he can follow in his countryman's footsteps. Not something I'd bet on though. For what it's worth, King Felix has a bigger body type, which may mean nothing in the end but he seemed more physically mature at age 19 than 160-pound Espinoza does.
These are some great case studies. I would think, however, that especially among Red Sox fans, we wouldn't discount the potential of an undersized player who's been chronically underestimated and feels like he has something to prove. So I like Espinoza for the attitude and confidence as much as the stuff. He ought to have outsized goals and expectations for himself.
Well, yes and no. It would make him a standout of a pretty rare order: the teen starting pitcher. But I was attempting sort of a dumb joke: I'd said that lots of teens had debuted and become stars, presuming that the brash and overconfident Espinoza fancied himself amongst them, hence, "for this reason;" it's not as funny when you explain it.
Turns out that I had erred in saying "most"—my thought process went Urías, Harper, Trout, Félix, A-Rod/Griffey, ... Gooden, ... Conigliaro. Four of my favorites. I did not thoroughly research that penultimate point, though, thanks fellas. Aging curves are getting younger these days.
They are easy to root for, as the nation will do, but our proposed superteams cannot both win it all. Have you seen the standings? The Cubs are a monolith powerhouse in the OOTP vein. Schwarber was injured in a plane accident and Jason Heyward has imploded harder than Lester's pickoff move. Still their run differential is twice that of anyone (us!), on pace for the winningest record in league history.
They're the losingest team in World Series history, subjectively speaking. On the one hand: d'awww. On the other, they are a contender now through Trump's second term. They're only easy to cheer for if somebody repeatedly hits the Achilles heel, and I don't think there's a fable for that. I wouldn't be quite so keen to beat on them specifically if they were powered by Moisés Alou.
But yeah. I want to play the antagonist. I'd love to subject their fanbase to that kind of startling, unprecedented doldrums. That'd be one of the greatest, most spectacular, memorable triumphs in sports, I'm pretty certain. It'd canonize the Cubs as losers in my mind. Theo becoming Branch Rickey without having to have gone through us is not, I don't think, a more enjoyable timeline. Mine's unlikely, but so too is an All-Star three-for-none.
Amazing that in this fantasy Theo Epstein builds both World Series rosters.
Last edited:
Who's saying we should suppress the goals Espinoza wants to set for himself?
I have some news for you guys, Anderson Espinoza isn't going to log on to SoSH, read this thread, and say "aw shit I guess I don't have a chance to make it as a teenager, I'm giving up." So, it's perfectly fine for us to have a realistic discussion about his chances based on things like his actual performance, age, and level.
I have some news for you guys, Anderson Espinoza isn't going to log on to SoSH, read this thread, and say "aw shit I guess I don't have a chance to make it as a teenager, I'm giving up." So, it's perfectly fine for us to have a realistic discussion about his chances based on things like his actual performance, age, and level.
Who are you arguing with? The conversation has basically gone -
"Espinoza says he wants to be in the majors before he's 20"
"Well, he could do it if he sets the world on fire"
"What are the precedents if he does? Does it mean anything?"
"ok, here they are"
Chrisfont brought up frame and body size and spoke of it as if it were predictive, and I replied that a fanbase whose idols include Pedro Martinez and Dustin Pedroia probably shouldn't overrate that. I'm not seeing anyone who's telling Espinoza to pack it in and wait his turn.
"Espinoza says he wants to be in the majors before he's 20"
"Well, he could do it if he sets the world on fire"
"What are the precedents if he does? Does it mean anything?"
"ok, here they are"
Chrisfont brought up frame and body size and spoke of it as if it were predictive, and I replied that a fanbase whose idols include Pedro Martinez and Dustin Pedroia probably shouldn't overrate that. I'm not seeing anyone who's telling Espinoza to pack it in and wait his turn.
That's your quote. So point me to who you are arguing with or who thinks he shouldn't have outsized goals or who doesn't love the exact quote you are talking about.
Regardless, the flow of the discussion is about the claim that we might see Espinoza on the Boston Red Sox playing a significant role in 2017. No matter how many "soft" things you want to talk about, that's the frame of reference. Having a discussion about the chance of that happening isn't really enlightened by a rebuttal that is essentially "rah rah skies the limit."
Put another way, there is noone that doesn't want it to happen if it is a result of Espinoza forcing the issue. But the Red Sox can't and shouldn't plan on it.
I'm not sure what you're saying. I'm not sure that you're sure what you're saying. I will say this.
If you're trying to build a "superteam" you're probably going to screw yourself. I have seen the standings. If the Cubs somehow don't come back to earth a bit, and they win 118 games...so what?
It's pretty rare for a team to stay good for eight years, what with it being only six years before a player hits free agency and if they are, so what?
You'd love to subject their fanbase to that kind of startling, unprecedented doldrums. The fanbase of a team that hasn't won the World Series in over a century? The fanbase of a team that went 116-36 in 1906 and didn't win the World Series? The doldrums you're talking about are precedented. The Cubs have been canonized as losers for decades now.
Why the hell would you hold any animosity towards the Cubs? Do you not remember what it was like before 2004? Why the hell would you wish that on anyone?
Everybody except the 2004 Red Sox? They still hang those league championship banners, you know.
I was reacting to a blend of:
To dive deeper into some of the more recent precedents alwyn brought up, let's take some case studies... (TLDR: Even if he reaches Boston next year, the odds seem strongly against him adding a lot of value to the team in 2017).
Jose Fernandez had an inconsistent first pro season at 18, both K'ing and BB'ing the park in Rookie and A- leagues. In his second season (age 19), he did 14 starts in A (11.3 K9 / 2.1 BB9), then 11 in A+ (9.7 / 2.8). He came up to MLB for his entire 3rd year as a 20yo, pitching 28 starts with a 9.7 K9 / 3.0 BB9. That's sort of an ideal scenario.
Clayton Kershaw wasn't much different. Drafted out of HS, his age 18 year had 10 games in rookie ball (13.1 / 1.2), age 19 was mostly at A ball (20 starts, 12.4 / 4.6) with 5 starts in AA (10.6 / 6.2). His third professional season, 11 more starts in AA saw him put up 8.7 Ks / 2.8 BBs, getting him called up in mid-2008 for half a season. His walk rates stayed high his first few years in the pros (4.3 in 2008, then 4.8 and 3.6 in full seasons) before dropping to 2.1 in his first CYA season in 2011.
Backing down to true teenagers, MadBum might be the very fastest rise in recent years. He went straight to A-ball at age 18, putting up a 10.4 / 1.3 in 141 IP. In his second season, he got 5 starts in A+ (8.5 / 1.5), 19 in AA (5.8 / 2.5, a sharp drop in K rate), earning a Sept call-up and 10 IP in the majors (10 Ks, 3 BBs). He started his age 20 year in AAA for 14 starts (6.4 / 2.4) before joining the bigs for good for the rest of his 18 starts (7.0 / 2.1). His K rate has been steadily climbing the last 6 years since that drop in AA.
Dylan Bundy might be a cautionary tale. Drafted at 18 at #4 overall, he debuted at 19 in A-ball (8 starts), A+ (12 starts, 10.4 / 2.8) and AA (3 starts), before going up to Baltimore for 2 relief appearances at the end of the year. He spent all of his age 20 year injured, returning at 21 to A- and A+ ball (9 starts total), age 22 in AA (8 starts, plus 2 in the AFL), and began this year at age 23 in the majors as a reliever.
Among foreign signings who remained starters, Julio Teheran is maybe the best recent example. Spent a short bit of age 17 in rookie ball, but his first full pro season at 18, he had 7 starts in rookie (8.0 / 1.4) and 7 starts in A (6.7 / 2.6). His second full season was very interesting: 7 starts in A (10.3 / 2.3), 10 in A+ (10.8 / 1.8!), 7 in AA (8.6 / 3.8, a slightly worrying shift). In his age 20 year, he began in AAA for 24 starts (7.6 / 3.0), earning a september callup, followed by Dominican winter league. At 21, he put in another 26 starts in AAA (6.7 / 3.0) and a spot start in the majors, so arguably he was held back a bit by the Braves. His age 22 season, he broke through with a brilliant rookie season for Atlanta (8.2 / 2.2), earning RoY votes.
Roberto Osuna spent a little time in Mexico's leagues as a 16yo, but once joining the pros in the US, his age 17 was abbreviated (43 IP) but promising (10.1 / 3.1 across Rookie / A- ball). He spent all of his 2nd pro year in A ball, only getting 42 IP in 10 starts (injured, I assume) but looking good (10.8 / 2.3). In his 3rd year at age 19, he got 7 decent starts in A+ (12.3 / 3.7), then 6 relief appearances in the AFL (10.9 / 2.9). He went straight from A+/AFL to Toronto the next year at age 20 as a full-time reliever, putting up 9.7 K9 / 2.1 BB9 in 69IP.
A less-recent but meteoric parallel could be Josh Beckett, who started a little bit older (his first pro season was his age 20 year). He spent that first season dominating A ball (9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), and in his second season, had 12 starts in A+ (13.8 K, 2.1 BB), 13 starts in AA (12.3 K, 2.3 BB), and then 4 september starts in MLB (9.0 K, 4.1 BB). His first two full-time years in the bigs had BB rates in the mid-3s, but his K rates were so high (mid-9s) that he was highly effective - famously so in 2003.
Similarly, Felix Hernandez
Generally, however, MLB debuts as early as age 20 either are abbreviated september call-ups, go very poorly, or both. Jenrry Mejia got a cup of coffee at 20, had 4 awful starts, and wasn't an effective ML starter until age 23. Arodys Vizcaino did OK in 17 IP of relief at age 20, but then spent 2 years out of baseball and wasn't effective in the bigs until age 24. Jacob Turner had rough 3-start road tests for Detroit at age 20 and 21, before getting traded to Miami and struggling through age 22, and has been bouncing around between the high minors even today at 25. Jordan Lyles stuck at 20, but had 4 terrible seasons in a row before Colorado decided to send him back down, and at 25 still has not been effective in MLB.
By comparison, we thus have Anderson Espinoza. Last year in 10 starts in rookie ball, he had a 9.0 K9 / 2.0 BB9. In 7 starts thus far at A-ball in Greenville, he's putting up an 11.9 / 3.8. The most successful starters are able to control their walks in A / A+ / AA, so that BB rate is worrying, absent further context.
So he strikes me as being not in the elite group (Fernandez, Beckett, Kershaw) who find effectiveness at the highest level in their 2nd pro year, and add a lot of value to the big team in their 3rd. But may be in the "midlly useful by his 3rd year" category with Osuna, Teheran, and Bumgarner. And that assumes he doesn't end up injured a la Bundy or Vizcaino. I'd be interested to read assessments of his delivery, stuff quality and approach with batters. But from looking at progression and general success at ages across levels in the minors, with an admittedly small sample, I would say counting on him for major value in 2017 is unrealistic.
Whether he can help the Red Sox in 2017 is informed by A) his performance track record so far, B) precedents and what we can learn from them, and C) how he projects qualitatively, on his stuff / approach / endurance / consistency / etc.
To dive deeper into some of the more recent precedents alwyn brought up, let's take some case studies... (TLDR: Even if he reaches Boston next year, the odds seem strongly against him adding a lot of value to the team in 2017).
Jose Fernandez had an inconsistent first pro season at 18, both K'ing and BB'ing the park in Rookie and A- leagues. In his second season (age 19), he did 14 starts in A (11.3 K9 / 2.1 BB9), then 11 in A+ (9.7 / 2.8). He came up to MLB for his entire 3rd year as a 20yo, pitching 28 starts with a 9.7 K9 / 3.0 BB9. That's sort of an ideal scenario.
Clayton Kershaw wasn't much different. Drafted out of HS, his age 18 year had 10 games in rookie ball (13.1 / 1.2), age 19 was mostly at A ball (20 starts, 12.4 / 4.6) with 5 starts in AA (10.6 / 6.2). His third professional season, 11 more starts in AA saw him put up 8.7 Ks / 2.8 BBs, getting him called up in mid-2008 for half a season. His walk rates stayed high his first few years in the pros (4.3 in 2008, then 4.8 and 3.6 in full seasons) before dropping to 2.1 in his first CYA season in 2011.
Backing down to true teenagers, MadBum might be the very fastest rise in recent years. He went straight to A-ball at age 18, putting up a 10.4 / 1.3 in 141 IP. In his second season, he got 5 starts in A+ (8.5 / 1.5), 19 in AA (5.8 / 2.5, a sharp drop in K rate), earning a Sept call-up and 10 IP in the majors (10 Ks, 3 BBs). He started his age 20 year in AAA for 14 starts (6.4 / 2.4) before joining the bigs for good for the rest of his 18 starts (7.0 / 2.1). His K rate has been steadily climbing the last 6 years since that drop in AA.
Dylan Bundy might be a cautionary tale. Drafted at 18 at #4 overall, he debuted at 19 in A-ball (8 starts), A+ (12 starts, 10.4 / 2.8) and AA (3 starts), before going up to Baltimore for 2 relief appearances at the end of the year. He spent all of his age 20 year injured, returning at 21 to A- and A+ ball (9 starts total), age 22 in AA (8 starts, plus 2 in the AFL), and began this year at age 23 in the majors as a reliever.
Among foreign signings who remained starters, Julio Teheran is maybe the best recent example. Spent a short bit of age 17 in rookie ball, but his first full pro season at 18, he had 7 starts in rookie (8.0 / 1.4) and 7 starts in A (6.7 / 2.6). His second full season was very interesting: 7 starts in A (10.3 / 2.3), 10 in A+ (10.8 / 1.8!), 7 in AA (8.6 / 3.8, a slightly worrying shift). In his age 20 year, he began in AAA for 24 starts (7.6 / 3.0), earning a september callup, followed by Dominican winter league. At 21, he put in another 26 starts in AAA (6.7 / 3.0) and a spot start in the majors, so arguably he was held back a bit by the Braves. His age 22 season, he broke through with a brilliant rookie season for Atlanta (8.2 / 2.2), earning RoY votes.
Roberto Osuna spent a little time in Mexico's leagues as a 16yo, but once joining the pros in the US, his age 17 was abbreviated (43 IP) but promising (10.1 / 3.1 across Rookie / A- ball). He spent all of his 2nd pro year in A ball, only getting 42 IP in 10 starts (injured, I assume) but looking good (10.8 / 2.3). In his 3rd year at age 19, he got 7 decent starts in A+ (12.3 / 3.7), then 6 relief appearances in the AFL (10.9 / 2.9). He went straight from A+/AFL to Toronto the next year at age 20 as a full-time reliever, putting up 9.7 K9 / 2.1 BB9 in 69IP.
A less-recent but meteoric parallel could be Josh Beckett, who started a little bit older (his first pro season was his age 20 year). He spent that first season dominating A ball (9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), and in his second season, had 12 starts in A+ (13.8 K, 2.1 BB), 13 starts in AA (12.3 K, 2.3 BB), and then 4 september starts in MLB (9.0 K, 4.1 BB). His first two full-time years in the bigs had BB rates in the mid-3s, but his K rates were so high (mid-9s) that he was highly effective - famously so in 2003.
Similarly, Felix Hernandez
Generally, however, MLB debuts as early as age 20 either are abbreviated september call-ups, go very poorly, or both. Jenrry Mejia got a cup of coffee at 20, had 4 awful starts, and wasn't an effective ML starter until age 23. Arodys Vizcaino did OK in 17 IP of relief at age 20, but then spent 2 years out of baseball and wasn't effective in the bigs until age 24. Jacob Turner had rough 3-start road tests for Detroit at age 20 and 21, before getting traded to Miami and struggling through age 22, and has been bouncing around between the high minors even today at 25. Jordan Lyles stuck at 20, but had 4 terrible seasons in a row before Colorado decided to send him back down, and at 25 still has not been effective in MLB.
By comparison, we thus have Anderson Espinoza. Last year in 10 starts in rookie ball, he had a 9.0 K9 / 2.0 BB9. In 7 starts thus far at A-ball in Greenville, he's putting up an 11.9 / 3.8. The most successful starters are able to control their walks in A / A+ / AA, so that BB rate is worrying, absent further context.
So he strikes me as being not in the elite group (Fernandez, Beckett, Kershaw) who find effectiveness at the highest level in their 2nd pro year, and add a lot of value to the big team in their 3rd. But may be in the "midlly useful by his 3rd year" category with Osuna, Teheran, and Bumgarner. And that assumes he doesn't end up injured a la Bundy or Vizcaino. I'd be interested to read assessments of his delivery, stuff quality and approach with batters. But from looking at progression and general success at ages across levels in the minors, with an admittedly small sample, I would say counting on him for major value in 2017 is unrealistic.
One edge case that doesn't quite fit the profiles talked about here but I think is useful to think about is CC Sabathia. He was drafted and started in Rookie ball at age 17 in 1998. He made it to high A in his age 18 season, split age 19 season between high A and AA, and made his pro debut April 8, 2001 at age 20. Never sent down (unless for rehab stints) and made at least 28 starts per year until 2014, most years hitting at least 200IP and often substantially higher than that. He didn't appear in MLB as a teenager but he's similar enough to discuss as a counterpoint.
Some talk elsewhere that -- given the Carson Smith news -- the Sox could be in the market for another bullpen arm.
Clearly the Sox may be comfortable with relying on their existing crew to step up (Barnes, Hembree, Ross, plus the AAA guys).
But if they aren't -- or are concerned about overtaxing Taz and Koji -- who could be available?
I've seen MLBTR mention Fernando Salas, LAAoA: He'll be a free agent at the end of the season, and an already suspect Angels team has been devastated by injury. Not overpowering stuff, but a solid veteran RH bullpen arm (3.11 FIP, career 9 K/9).
-
Clearly the Sox may be comfortable with relying on their existing crew to step up (Barnes, Hembree, Ross, plus the AAA guys).
But if they aren't -- or are concerned about overtaxing Taz and Koji -- who could be available?
I've seen MLBTR mention Fernando Salas, LAAoA: He'll be a free agent at the end of the season, and an already suspect Angels team has been devastated by injury. Not overpowering stuff, but a solid veteran RH bullpen arm (3.11 FIP, career 9 K/9).
-
So I know the dialogue last week was about Cafardo's article trading for Trout. I was on vacation, but did anyone bring up the precedence of Dombrowski already doing a deal like this? He traded for a 24 year old Miguel Cabrera in 2007. The deal was:
Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Eulogio de La Cruz, Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop
Willis was coming off a bad season (10-15, 5.17 ERA), but Cabrera was coming off 4 great seasons in Florida. As far as I can tell it's the closest recent comp to Trout (Who was admittedly better during the equivalent years in his career).
On the 2008 BA Top 100, Maybin was 6th. Miller wasn't on the '08 list but was 10th on the 2007 list.
In short, at least in theory the price for Trout should be 3 of the Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Anderson Espinoza group.
I don't think it's a situation where you have to give up Betts and/or Bogaerts, but it can certainly be done in other ways.
Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Mike Rabelo, Eulogio de La Cruz, Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop
Willis was coming off a bad season (10-15, 5.17 ERA), but Cabrera was coming off 4 great seasons in Florida. As far as I can tell it's the closest recent comp to Trout (Who was admittedly better during the equivalent years in his career).
On the 2008 BA Top 100, Maybin was 6th. Miller wasn't on the '08 list but was 10th on the 2007 list.
In short, at least in theory the price for Trout should be 3 of the Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Anderson Espinoza group.
I don't think it's a situation where you have to give up Betts and/or Bogaerts, but it can certainly be done in other ways.
Some combination of those prospects also would net you virtually any starting pitcher who could reasonably be expected to be available in July. Of course, Trout would be an upgrade over JBJ, even at his recent best. But from an efficiency standpoint, I would rather trade some combination of those prospects for the more immediate need, which is pitching. Trading for Trout not only would ignore our most pressing need but also would remove the pieces we would need to address that need.
It's a fun exercise. But it won't happen, and it shouldn't.
It's a fun exercise. But it won't happen, and it shouldn't.