General Playoff Thread: The Long 2nd Season
- Thread starter ElUno20
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Read something today that every first team All-NBA Center that isn't currently active or awaiting induction is in the HOF.
Towns, arguably. Though perhaps they figured they'd throw someone else a bone since he'll win it for the next ten years or so.
I am obviously biased but I think people who have just started following this Thunder team are too by recency. The Thunder shot 43.3% from deep this game and 37.2% in this series. That said, their 3P% during the entire playoffs is 34.2% which tracks more closely with their 34.7% season average.
In short, they have been hot from deep. Roberson is shooting 36.4% from outside after averaging 31.1% during the season while Dion Waiters is hitting at 41.7% from deep after averaging 35.8% during the season. Hell, Westbrook was poor from the outside during the regular season at 29.6% (lifetime he is 30.2%) and since the playoffs began, he is hitting threes at a 34% rate.
I get that the odds are heavily stacked in OKC's favor here but if any of these guys regresses to their averages, the Thunder won't look so imposing. So how does GS win in Oklahoma City (as a side note, their crowds are simply outstanding. I hate that the Sonics moved but if there is a more deserving location for NBA basketball, I'd like to see it)?
Well tonight was part of the blueprint. Ball movement with smart passes, limit turnovers and limit cheap fouls. Bogut needs to be on the floor as much as possible and I like the defense they got when they brought Iguodala in to switch between Durant and the other bigs. And hope that the suddenly lethal from deep Thunder starts to run into the law of averages but make sure you stay in front of Waiters (they did a good job on him tonight) and Roberson.
I know this much - OKC does not want to head back to Oracle with the specter of blowing a three to one series lead hanging over their heads. That is a recipe for disaster. Expect them to come out firing with their home crowd on Saturday but if the Warriors manage to steal that game somehow...
In short, they have been hot from deep. Roberson is shooting 36.4% from outside after averaging 31.1% during the season while Dion Waiters is hitting at 41.7% from deep after averaging 35.8% during the season. Hell, Westbrook was poor from the outside during the regular season at 29.6% (lifetime he is 30.2%) and since the playoffs began, he is hitting threes at a 34% rate.
I get that the odds are heavily stacked in OKC's favor here but if any of these guys regresses to their averages, the Thunder won't look so imposing. So how does GS win in Oklahoma City (as a side note, their crowds are simply outstanding. I hate that the Sonics moved but if there is a more deserving location for NBA basketball, I'd like to see it)?
Well tonight was part of the blueprint. Ball movement with smart passes, limit turnovers and limit cheap fouls. Bogut needs to be on the floor as much as possible and I like the defense they got when they brought Iguodala in to switch between Durant and the other bigs. And hope that the suddenly lethal from deep Thunder starts to run into the law of averages but make sure you stay in front of Waiters (they did a good job on him tonight) and Roberson.
I know this much - OKC does not want to head back to Oracle with the specter of blowing a three to one series lead hanging over their heads. That is a recipe for disaster. Expect them to come out firing with their home crowd on Saturday but if the Warriors manage to steal that game somehow...
Every non-Center on second and third all-NBA team. Aren't positional awards dead yet? Even ASG is frontcourt/backcourt, right?
Man if they blow a 3-1 lead KD might be frustrated enough to.....oh hell I can't even bring myself to think like that again.
Great post, DBMH.
I'll add, the Warriors haven't had a dagger game yet in this series. Haven't had a KO punch. Shooting has let them down -- now, that can be legs at the end of a 100 game season -- but just not like them. Game 6 is the pivotal game (duh). On top of OKC coming down to Earth and Dubs playing with game 5 rotations... goddamn the Warriors should have one game where shooting flat wins it.
You wouldn't call game 2, where Steph loses his mind and scores a billion points in 2 minutes, a game where shooting wins it? They already had that game you think is yet to come.
Bogut averaged a foul every 4 minutes he was on the floor in the 2 games in OKC. The Thunder were driving at him the same way in the first quarter last night as they did in games 3 and 4 and the calls weren't there, which is just part of the difference between playing at home and on the road. If the refs call things a bit less tight than they did in OKC, he'll definitely have a chance to have a similar impact in game 6. Otherwise, Kerr will have to choose between: returning to the small lineup, playing Ezeli more, or giving some of Speights/Varejao more minutes.
Some of this was officiating but Bogut also played a lot better. In OKC he was picking up dumb fouls going over the back on offensive rebounds, he avoided that kind of thing last night.
Was just going to make this point myself. I actually thought that after the first quarter, the game was pretty evenly officiated. The Ws did get most of the marginal calls in the first quarter, in particular the offensive foul on Steven Adams was pretty iffy. The Warriors ended up shooting more free throws for the game, but that was mostly because OKC fouled a lot in the last minute trying to catch up. There was nothing like the crazy disparity from Games 3-4, when in the first half OKC shot like 28 FTs or something.
With Bogut in and playing well, and the Ws not turning the ball over like crazy, OKC was a lot less aggressive on offense and had trouble getting to the rim. They settled for a lot of tough jump shots, which they made at a surprisingly high rate that exceeds their historical efficiency (as Dejuses points out). Durant didn't shoot that well, but he had the burden of taking a lot of hard shots, and Ibaka/Roberson/Westbrook/Morrow were 10-19 on 3s. That's not likely to continue.
If you're a GSW fan looking for hope, that has to be the strategy: stay big to protect the rim, avoid turnovers so the Thunder can't get out in transition, don't commit dumb fouls, force OKC to make tough shots in the half court.
The Ws also won last night despite Steph/Klay shooting 5-17 on 3s. They will need that % to go up to win on the road.
7-1 early when the home team was the aggressor. Balanced thereafter once OKC matched the Warriors aggression. Seems pretty standard to me.
The home court officiating bias doesn't exist and never has existed imho. The home team being more aggressive than the passivity displayed by the road team has gone on for decades at many levels in the game of basketball. The aggressor forces defenses to react which results in more movement and more scrambling. The passive offense doesn't place the defense in these compromising positions which is why they don't commit as many fouls.
HCA definitely exists, and at the pro level probably consists mostly of favorable officiating. (At lower levels, factors like familiar surroundings and lack of travel play a role, but cookie-cutter arenas and charter travel largely eliminate those factors in the NBA.) But we're talking about a swing of a few possessions per game -- when one team gets dramatically more FTA than the other, it's almost always because that team forced the action while the other settled for jump shots. That's exactly what happened in the early going last night.
I thought the Warriors got a generous whistle, but it wasn't Kings/Lakers bad.
The major failing of the refs (and League) in this series has been handling Draymond. He almost certainly should have been tossed last night. And he should be given a retroactive flagrant 2 for kicking Westbrook in the face.... but he won't.
The major failing of the refs (and League) in this series has been handling Draymond. He almost certainly should have been tossed last night. And he should be given a retroactive flagrant 2 for kicking Westbrook in the face.... but he won't.
He also did the kick move again early in the first quarter that nearly hit Durant. He seems to be very close to completely melting down under the emotion of the series.
Anyone else surprised by the flagrant foul call?
I'm guessing it will be reversed if the Raptors win tonight -- can't suspend him for Game 7 for that.
I'm guessing it will be reversed if the Raptors win tonight -- can't suspend him for Game 7 for that.
That looked like a pretty hard elbow. The problem is the non call on the groin kick for Green. But that's Golden State. This is Toronto. Biyombo will be suspended for Game 7, if necessary.
So 26-18... 10 more foul shots and the home team won by 9. And I've consistently heard the idea that one team is 'more aggressive' when a foul disparity like 7-1 happens, but Durant and Westbrook were definitely going to the hole and a number of fouls called on OKC were barely touch fouls. One team was definitely more aggressive on D, but they were also allowed to be.
Yeah, JR isn't a great human being, but he's played great fucking basketball all series. Unselfish on offense, and as engaged, if not more, than the rest of his team on defense. He's been directing the defense on the perimeter the last few games in impressive fashion and playing great on the ball.
Love and Irving sure but one thing that hasn't mentioned much is that JR has committed to playing defense. http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2016/05/the_evolution_of_jr_smith_from.html
Who is guarding LeBron on GS? You put Draymond on him then Love goes off. You put Thompson on him, then Curry is forced to guard Irving and gets torched. I think both sides would present some defensive problems for the other team.
I would agree that OKC/CLE would be an interesting matchup. Durant and LeBron square off for 40 minutes / game, Irving/Westbrook run each other ragged, and Love/Ibaka spread the court and open up the driving lanes. Roberson would be able to focus solely on closing out on Smith on the perimeter. And Adams/Thompson would battle down low. Neither team has much of a bench.
I would agree that OKC/CLE would be an interesting matchup. Durant and LeBron square off for 40 minutes / game, Irving/Westbrook run each other ragged, and Love/Ibaka spread the court and open up the driving lanes. Roberson would be able to focus solely on closing out on Smith on the perimeter. And Adams/Thompson would battle down low. Neither team has much of a bench.
The current version of the Cavs is nothing like the team Golden State faced last year. Irving and Love are just eons better than Dellabadova and Movgov.(obviously) And Smith is playing well and much smarter than he has in year's past. And Thompson is a man possessed, too. His work on the offensive glass extends a lot of plays. Over a lot of minutes, that wears the other team out. And Lebron has much more in the tank than he did last year, because he had to carry way more weight just to get the team to the finals.
The is just about the closest Cleveland is going to come to a title in the next few years/decades. They are rightthere. They didn't beat Toronto the past two games. They obliterated them. It was like an NBA team playing an NCAA team. Even with Lowry doing everything in his power to keep it close. If he didn't have a monster game, it would have been a bigger blowout. And that is saying something.
I agree with all that, but do you think the differences in this Cavs team mean that Iguodala won't guard Lebron again if there's a rematch?
Agreed. Using last year's results is pretty lazy analysis. That Cavs team was decimated by injuries. It was LeBron and junk vs. GS. Now the Cavs have everyone healthy and are more rested. They could still very well lose because GS and OKC are obviously really good but Cleveland fans have to be thinking that this is their year. Their window certainly isn't closed if they lose but the further removed LeBron gets from his prime, the harder it will be.
Iguodala doesn't start so unless Kerr messes with his rotation, it'll be Barnes, Green, or Thompson or, more likely, a combination of everyone. I'm sure Iguodala will get LeBron when he's in.
You guys seem to think I'm saying something other than "I think Iguodala will guard Lebron", but I'm really not. BSF, I took your "Who will guard Lebron?" questions literally.
Maybe you interpreted the "the 2015 NBA Finals MVP" line as an expression of confidence for Golden State. I merely meant to point out that Iguodala did a really good job guarding Lebron last year and will likely be his primary defender again. Do either of you disagree?
Maybe you interpreted the "the 2015 NBA Finals MVP" line as an expression of confidence for Golden State. I merely meant to point out that Iguodala did a really good job guarding Lebron last year and will likely be his primary defender again. Do either of you disagree?
Which is exactly what he did last year when Iggy started 3 games in the Finals and averaged 37 minutes per game.
If GS somehow gets past OKC they will beat the Cave in Six. The Cavs had trouble in Toronto when the Raps moved the ball, and the Raptors are nothing like the Warriors in taking advantage of gambling D.
I believe the Cavs can beat the Thunder though. A lot will depend on if NBA focus groups prefer KD is the new man, vs LeBron redeemed himself in Cleveland as a narrative.
I believe the Cavs can beat the Thunder though. A lot will depend on if NBA focus groups prefer KD is the new man, vs LeBron redeemed himself in Cleveland as a narrative.
Sorry - misinterpreted your post. But I do disagree to some extent. Barnes has been in the starting lineup the whole playoffs this year. Kerr could certainly make a switch but I think there will be some long stretches where Iguodala isn't in the game. It will be an interesting chess match because if Kerr goes small and puts Iggy in there for Bogut, then Thompson/Love would probably kill GS on the glass. I think Kerr would probably throw the kitchen sink at LeBron and everyone short of Curry and Bogut could be matched up on him for periods of time.
He could afford to do that last year given that Love and Irving were out. Don't think the decision would be as easy this year. But I certainly could see them starting out with that lineup if they advance.
Yeah, I don't think it would be Barnes (he started every playoff game last year as well), I think it would be Bogut again, though I agree this Cavs team is much better suited to take advantage of the small ball line-up. The three Finals games were the only games Iggy started the entire year last year, and Lebron shot 38% while he was on the floor. I think it's a trade-off Kerr has to make given how vital Lebron is to that offense, and how effectively it worked last year. Though with his weapons this year, Lebron may be too much for Iggy and the kitchen sink. It will be really interesting to see what Kerr does if they pull through.
Yes, that's the thing. Last year it was "stop Lebron and the rest of the team can't do much". This year, the rest is unbelievable. Irving is playing incredibly right now. His ability to drive leaves Lebron with approximately 40 thousand more miles of space. That's a non scientific measurement, I would like to add. But this year it is different.
This healthy version of the Cavs is much better on offense but much worse on defense, especially in terms of how they match up with GSW. The Ws will throw Irving/Love into a million 1-4 PnRs with Draymond as the screener and they will get a good shot out of it nearly every time. The Cavs don't have the length and athleticism across their lineup to disrupt the Ws offense like OKC does, and they will get roasted as a result.
The Cavs just don't have the horses. Their offensive lineups can't defend well enough against the Ws, and their defensive lineups can't score well enough against the Ws (as we saw in the finals last year). It's a game of matchups and GSW is a terrible matchup for them, they'd fare a lot better against OKC (plus they'd have home court). The Ws would probably beat them in 5, and a sweep would be a real possibility.
But this is getting ahead of ourselves. OKC is still a solid favorite to close out tonight. I think the Warriors will play much better than they did in Games 3-4, and they've made some smart adjustments that will help (abandoning the Green on Roberson gambit, playing big more, switching more on D), I'd be very surprised if they lose by 25 again. But it still may not be enough. I think they need a big Steph Curry game to win there. He hasn't had one in this series yet. It will be hard for them to win if he doesn't have an efficient 30-35 points.
Yup. And a short leash from Kerr as well.
Boy, how can you defend Westbrook if he's hitting that pull-up jumper?