#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?

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MarcSullivaFan

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Hoo-hoo-hoo hoosier land.
Also, I want to clarify that while Pats/Brady could have done a better job PR wise, they were never, ever, going to win in the court of public opinion. When it comes to NFL fandom, these stupid controversies are just another field on which rooting interests play out. Few fans are burdened by reason or fairness, not even the smart ones who care deeply about those values in non-sports contexts. (Many if not most of us are guilty of the same thing.) And people fucking *hate* the Patriots. The idea that the the general public, and NFL fans in general, were ever going to be persuaded of Brady's innocence was and is fantasy. Not in a country where Donald Trump has a realistic chance of becoming president, and his main contenders are a borderline crook and a delusional demagogue. Facts are but a minor impediment on our march towards idiocracy.

The legal proccess (not the NFL's internal proccess) was always the best shot that Brady had at getting some measure of justice.
 
Eddie Jurak

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I heard Ted Olson's interview on OMF. Sharp guy. Seems to know the facts of the case cold, or at least is able to convey that impression.

Really too bad the NFLPA did not bring him in before the "Hail Mary" stage in the process. Seems like he would have had a decent shot at flipping one judge.
 
EL Jeffe

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The Monday morning quarterbacking about PR seems to ignore the actual reality of what was taking place at the time. You have to keep in mind the following facts:
  • The Patriots knew their footballs were set to ~12.5 PSI.
  • After doing their IGL research, the Patriots knew their footballs would have registered ~11.5 PSI, the loss of about 1 PSI.
  • ESPN was reporting that their footballs were 2+ PSI low.
  • They had a letter from an NFL VP saying one of their footballs was as low as 10.1 PSI.
So shouting Ideal Gas Law over and over again wasn't going to be an effective strategy because the IGL would still leave ~ 1-1.5 PSI unaccounted for. There were already scientists and articles explaining that the IGL couldn't account for the PSI loss shortly after the Mona Lisa football press conference, so going down that path would have only highlighted the still missing PSI. Of course in reality, that still "missing" PSI was made up of 1) fabricated (or exaggerated) PSI numbers, and 2) assigning the incorrect air gauge readings.

From a PR battle, the Patriots fought this with both arms tied behind their backs. The NFL was the only party with the real numbers and they chose to essentially lie to make the Patriots look as bad as possible. While the Patriots would have known they didn't do anything wrong, they weren't able to explain the missing 1-1.5 PSI which is why Kraft used the language he did. He said they wouldn't find a smoking gun, but the unaccounted for PSI was out there and that was a pretty big obstacle for them to deal with. Obviously once the real numbers were released in the Wells Report they could attack them, but by that time it was too late to do anything.
 
ElcaballitoMVP

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EL Jeffe said:
The Monday morning quarterbacking about PR seems to ignore the actual reality of what was taking place at the time. You have to keep in mind the following facts:
  • The Patriots knew their footballs were set to ~12.5 PSI.
  • After doing their IGL research, the Patriots knew their footballs would have registered ~11.5 PSI, the loss of about 1 PSI.
  • ESPN was reporting that their footballs were 2+ PSI low.
  • They had a letter from an NFL VP saying one of their footballs was as low as 10.1 PSI.
So shouting Ideal Gas Law over and over again wasn't going to be an effective strategy because the IGL would still leave ~ 1-1.5 PSI unaccounted for. There were already scientists and articles explaining that the IGL couldn't account for the PSI loss shortly after the Mona Lisa football press conference, so going down that path would have only highlighted the still missing PSI. Of course in reality, that still "missing" PSI was made up of 1) fabricated (or exaggerated) PSI numbers, and 2) assigning the incorrect air gauge readings.

From a PR battle, the Patriots fought this with both arms tied behind their backs. The NFL was the only party with the real numbers and they chose to essentially lie to make the Patriots look as bad as possible. While the Patriots would have known they didn't do anything wrong, they weren't able to explain the missing 1-1.5 PSI which is why Kraft used the language he did. He said they wouldn't find a smoking gun, but the unaccounted for PSI was out there and that was a pretty big obstacle for them to deal with. Obviously once the real numbers were released in the Wells Report they could attack them, but by that time it was too late to do anything.
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Definitely agree with you but I would've loved to have seen the Pats tell the NFL to screw once they did find out what the real PSI numbers were. The NFL put a gag order on them and I wish Kraft would've told them to piss off and gone public that Mort's tweet wasn't even close to the truth. The Pats had little recourse, but this is one area of PR that they could've gotten aggressive with and likely would have turned public opinion in their favor.
 
gammoseditor

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
Definitely agree with you but I would've loved to have seen the Pats tell the NFL to screw once they did find out what the real PSI numbers were. The NFL put a gag order on them and I wish Kraft would've told them to piss off and gone public that Mort's tweet wasn't even close to the truth. The Pats had little recourse, but this is one area of PR that they could've gotten aggressive with and likely would have turned public opinion in their favor.
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Yup. Kraft should've realized that something was wrong and the team wasn't going to be treated fairly when they were told they were not allowed to correct the wrong public information. There was no reason for the NFL to leave the incorrect report out there, and it's even worse that when the Patriots found out the report was wrong they were told they were not allowed to correct it.
 
Shelterdog

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gammoseditor said:
Yup. Kraft should've realized that something was wrong and the team wasn't going to be treated fairly when they were told they were not allowed to correct the wrong public information. There was no reason for the NFL to leave the incorrect report out there, and it's even worse that when the Patriots found out the report was wrong they were told they were not allowed to correct it.
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They did. That's why Brady added Kessler to his team, they didn't produce the dinks for additional interviews, their attorney started bickering with Wells and why (probably) the Pats leaked the corrected PSI data.
 
edmunddantes

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
You're conflating a PR battle with an actual power struggle between Goodell and the NFLPA. Both were involved here, but they are not the same thing.

Kraft standing up and bloviating everyday isn't winning a PR battle with anyone except Pats fans. It would have been a waste to time and if we saw any other owner do the same, we'd be just as critical as the rest of the league if Kraft had done it.

Rice and the Saints directly led to this. Roger got overturned by an arbiter (Tagliabue) in the Saints case, so he acted as his own in the Rice case (and Peterson). He got overturned by a court in those, but he had already doubled down here.

Kraft wasn't changing either of those.
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Peterson was Henderson as Roger had somewhat learned his lesson from Rice and appointed a different arbritator

dcmissle said:
I expressed the belief that Wells would play it straight and that he would bill a fortune.

I did not believe he would sell his soul to frame Brady and the Pats, but that is exactly what he, his partners and associates did.

I thought this was a rogue operation gone bad -- Kensil -- and that they'd eventually get it right because Goodell had no skin in the game and no incentive to get it wrong.

What I didn't realize at the time is that the owners -- or certain owners -- drove this, not Goodell. And that from the get go, the mission was to hurt the Pats. They pull the strings, he takes the heat and is paid extravagantly, in part, for doing exactly that.

It goes well beyond this. If you look to concussion land and beyond, League owners rather plainly are running a criminal enterprise. Goodell is the fall guy -- and so was Wells.
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As to the criminal enterprise, there is talk of owners trying to force Mark Davis out because they don't like him as an owner or think he has the chops to run a team in Vegas, LA, etc. They will make the re-location fee to Las Vegas so high he can't afford it, etc.

So yeah, NFL fans need to realize that most of these owners are business men that don't give a shit about the brotherhood of owners (Kraft was an idiot to ever buy into that idea), etc. If they think there is a bigger dollar to be made, they will cut you.
 
TheoShmeo

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
Definitely agree with you but I would've loved to have seen the Pats tell the NFL to screw once they did find out what the real PSI numbers were. The NFL put a gag order on them and I wish Kraft would've told them to piss off and gone public that Mort's tweet wasn't even close to the truth. The Pats had little recourse, but this is one area of PR that they could've gotten aggressive with and likely would have turned public opinion in their favor.
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I agree that the Pats should not have complied with any gag order.

But I really have trouble believing that anything they could have said would have helped them much.

Once Mort's damaging tweet took hold, Joe Public had the story -- CHEATRIOTS AGAIN! -- and any corrections, even early ones, would have been discounted.

This is not obviously scientific but virtually all of the people I have spoken with who mouth the "you know Brady really did it, right?" type stuff really know almost nothing about the story beyond the early damning allegations. They are either opportunists or just not that interested in the details. The Pats argue in their brief that the NFL correcting the story early would have changed perceptions and that's possible, but I think (a) once the original story got out there, most folks irrevocably reached their conclusions, which in many cases confirmed their SpyGate based impression of the Pats in general and (b) anything that Kraft might have said early on would have been viewed with skepticism, meaning that the only correction that could have mattered would have been from the NFL.
 
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EL Jeffe

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GeorgeCostanza said:
When did the Pats leak the corrected PSI data? I don't recall that happening before the Wells Report came out.
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IIRC, Rapaport reported Super Bowl morning that most of the Patriot footballs measured where they were supposed to and only a couple were a "few ticks" low. The specific measurements weren't released but the Patriots essentially did leak out that the numbers were where the IGL predicted they'd be.
 
djbayko

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EL Jeffe said:
IIRC, Rapaport reported Super Bowl morning that most of the Patriot footballs measured where they were supposed to and only a couple were a "few ticks" low. The specific measurements weren't released but the Patriots essentially did leak out that the numbers were where the IGL predicted they'd be.
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The NFL didn't provide the Patriots with the actual PSI measurements until much later.

I do remember a report like that, but unfortunately it never really picked up steam, and it was probably because it was extremely vague.
 
gammoseditor

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EL Jeffe said:
IIRC, Rapaport reported Super Bowl morning that most of the Patriot footballs measured where they were supposed to and only a couple were a "few ticks" low. The specific measurements weren't released but the Patriots essentially did leak out that the numbers were where the IGL predicted they'd be.
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Was Rapaport quoting the Patriots as his source? A reporter with anonymous sources who is contradicted by another reported with anonymous sources doesn't carry much weight.
 
Hendu for Kutch

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EL Jeffe said:
IIRC, Rapaport reported Super Bowl morning that most of the Patriot footballs measured where they were supposed to and only a couple were a "few ticks" low. The specific measurements weren't released but the Patriots essentially did leak out that the numbers were where the IGL predicted they'd be.
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As I understood it, the Patriots didn't even get the numbers until well after this, so I don't see how they could have been the leak there.
 
lexrageorge

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edmunddantes said:
As to the criminal enterprise, there is talk of owners trying to force Mark Davis out because they don't like him as an owner or think he has the chops to run a team in Vegas, LA, etc. They will make the re-location fee to Las Vegas so high he can't afford it, etc.

So yeah, NFL fans need to realize that most of these owners are business men that don't give a shit about the brotherhood of owners (Kraft was an idiot to ever buy into that idea), etc. If they think there is a bigger dollar to be made, they will cut you.
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I would not assume Kraft ever bought into that idea. He's just as ruthless as the other owners, and has been more then willing in the past to further his self interests. Perhaps he may have briefly thought he would have support from some owners after Goodell issued his over the top punishment. But once the other owners viewed the Brady situation as union vs owners, the game was over for Kraft.
 
BaseballJones

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Don't know if this should go here or in the other thread....

From Steph Stradley (http://www.stradleylaw.com/faqs-deflategate-second-circuit-rehearing/) regarding the whole phone issue - this is in her comments section at the end:

"The "destruction of the phone" thing was a finding that Goodell made up after the appeal based on some evidence that came in, but Brady's team was never allowed to properly refute that as a spoilation issue. In my opinion, it was not spoilation in the sense normally used legally given that Wells never wanted the phone, never placed a hold on the phone, never notified the parties that the phone was going to be the key to a ball deflation case given that they already had texts from other sources.

The best evidence that has been made public suggests that Brady's lawyers asked for the authority of why Wells' should be entitled to the contents of private electronic communications, and that Wells' team didn't get back to them. Crickets. And them blammo, Brady is surprised by this fishing expedition being the crux of the punishment.

The majority opinion cobbling together a spoilation argument that Brady couldn't fully refute after his Goodell appeal decision is bizarre. There is no reason why Brady should have ever known that the phone was going to be the key to anything involving his discipline. ZERO reason. Either in the Wells Report, in Wells' comments after the Report, in the Context Report, none of it. IT IS INFURIATING THAT ONE OF THE BEST QUARTERBACKS IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL IS BEING SUSPENDED FOUR GAMES IN PART BECAUSE OF A COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE DISCOVERY DISPUTE BETWEEN LAWYERS.

Yes, blame the lawyers. I wouldn't blame Brady's lawyer/agent because how the hades would he have known that the contents of the phone was going to be a crucial part of an equipment violation allegation. That they would ignore everything that the witnesses said, and go all in on this. It's not like he was being accused of sexually harrassing someone with d pix or whatnot.

(I am a super non-fan of the spoilation part of the Brady majority opinion. From the record, Brady had no fair notice from Wells that not providing the electronic information would be taken as an adverse inference and non-cooperation. Brady tried to remedy the issue on appeal to Goodell the best he could given the no notice. Very cooperative. Under oath. Offered all sorts of irrelevant info despite his (what turned out to be well-founded) privacy concerns. Not only was he not given credit for that, Goodell used that attempt at cooperation after the fact to manufacture an intentional spoilation case against him that was a new issue. He couldn't refute that because it was a surprise after the hearing. Then, it goes in front of Berman, where the facts are not supposed to be an issue, and it can't be propertly refuted then because technically, the legal standard for reviewing the arbitration isn't supposed to be a fact finding exercise.)"
 
DourDoerr

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BigJimEd said:
But I believe at the time of Belichick's conference, he and just about everyone else was still under the belief the balls were 2 psi, or even more, under the limit.
That's where he got into rubbing the footballs which can heat up the air inside etc...
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I had forgotten about the missing psi - thanks. Obviously, until the Pats could account for it, they'd be foolish to pound IGL. They could have pressed publicly for the NFL's documents of the ref's recorded numbers of the footballs and perhaps kept the focus there.
 
DourDoerr

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Super Nomario said:
I don't think it would have mattered. The Wells Report does not deny the existence of the IGL; it says the IGL cannot explain the full level of the Patriots' deflation.
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According to the new petition though, it states that Exponent reported the IGL would explain it. The Wells Report then pretty much lies and acknowledges the IGL but misstates that it, yes, doesn't fully explain what happened to the footballs.
 
allstonite

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Could be any of them except probably Benson. And I'm sure all of them wouldn't mind their starting quarterback sitting for the first quarter of the season over nothing at all
 
Van Everyman

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Mara is tops on my list. He's always disappointed. Which is understandable. Nothing will ever be as good as when things were handed to you with nothing expected in return.
 
Gorton Fisherman

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If I am the Patriots, I wear the "disappointment" of these unnamed owners as a badge of honor. Seriously, fuck those guys right in the earhole. The fact that these douchebags are "disappointed" is evidence that the Patriots did exactly the right thing.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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allstonite said:
Could be any of them except probably Benson. And I'm sure all of them wouldn't mind their starting quarterback sitting for the first quarter of the season over nothing at all
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I know you were being sarcastic but Woody and the entire Jets fanbase probably wouldn't mind.
 
Super Nomario

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DourDoerr said:
According to the new petition though, it states that Exponent reported the IGL would explain it. The Wells Report then pretty much lies and acknowledges the IGL but misstates that it, yes, doesn't fully explain what happened to the footballs.
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IGL can explain the level of deflation if you assume certain things, and it can't explain it if you assume other things - specifically, which gauge was used, what the starting temperature was and the temperature when the balls were measured was, and the time at which the balls were measured. The Wells / Exponent report concludes that the set(s) of assumptions favorable to the Patriots are not plausible and thus IGL can't plausibly explain the level of deflation. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on that, but IGL does not fully exonerate the Patriots depending on which assumptions are made, and therefore pounding the IGL doesn't change anything.
 
Myt1

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BaseballJones said:
Don't know if this should go here or in the other thread....

From Steph Stradley (http://www.stradleylaw.com/faqs-deflategate-second-circuit-rehearing/) regarding the whole phone issue - this is in her comments section at the end:

"The "destruction of the phone" thing was a finding that Goodell made up after the appeal based on some evidence that came in, but Brady's team was never allowed to properly refute that as a spoilation issue. In my opinion, it was not spoilation in the sense normally used legally given that Wells never wanted the phone, never placed a hold on the phone, never notified the parties that the phone was going to be the key to a ball deflation case given that they already had texts from other sources.

The best evidence that has been made public suggests that Brady's lawyers asked for the authority of why Wells' should be entitled to the contents of private electronic communications, and that Wells' team didn't get back to them. Crickets. And them blammo, Brady is surprised by this fishing expedition being the crux of the punishment.

The majority opinion cobbling together a spoilation argument that Brady couldn't fully refute after his Goodell appeal decision is bizarre. There is no reason why Brady should have ever known that the phone was going to be the key to anything involving his discipline. ZERO reason. Either in the Wells Report, in Wells' comments after the Report, in the Context Report, none of it. IT IS INFURIATING THAT ONE OF THE BEST QUARTERBACKS IN THE HISTORY OF THE NFL IS BEING SUSPENDED FOUR GAMES IN PART BECAUSE OF A COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE DISCOVERY DISPUTE BETWEEN LAWYERS.

Yes, blame the lawyers. I wouldn't blame Brady's lawyer/agent because how the hades would he have known that the contents of the phone was going to be a crucial part of an equipment violation allegation. That they would ignore everything that the witnesses said, and go all in on this. It's not like he was being accused of sexually harrassing someone with d pix or whatnot.

(I am a super non-fan of the spoilation part of the Brady majority opinion. From the record, Brady had no fair notice from Wells that not providing the electronic information would be taken as an adverse inference and non-cooperation. Brady tried to remedy the issue on appeal to Goodell the best he could given the no notice. Very cooperative. Under oath. Offered all sorts of irrelevant info despite his (what turned out to be well-founded) privacy concerns. Not only was he not given credit for that, Goodell used that attempt at cooperation after the fact to manufacture an intentional spoilation case against him that was a new issue. He couldn't refute that because it was a surprise after the hearing. Then, it goes in front of Berman, where the facts are not supposed to be an issue, and it can't be propertly refuted then because technically, the legal standard for reviewing the arbitration isn't supposed to be a fact finding exercise.)"
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She doesn't know what she's talking about. There's not very much more to it than that. The underlying premises she's offering are built on dust.

Wells didn't have to place a hold on the phone, the duty to preserve it arises once litigation can be reasonably anticipated. "Litigation holds," are really internal instructions that you give a client or that internal counsel gives to company personnel who may not otherwise know that a duty to preserve evidence has arisen.

And, "How the Hades"? Because that's something that real lawyers know because they practice law, that's how. Like 2nd year associates. She's been good on this stuff to the extent that she was asking questions and reading critically early on, but this is just dumb.
 
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Myt1

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The phone thing was so, so galactically stupid (or brilliant if it had a smoking gun) that it was a gut punch to anyone who drinks and knows things. "I always destroy them but not the one before this one I destroyed, I still have that one" is the sort of thing that rightly gets people laughed out of court. It's a huge, huge credibility issue.
 
Ed Hillel

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Super Nomario said:
IGL can explain the level of deflation if you assume certain things, and it can't explain it if you assume other things - specifically, which gauge was used, what the starting temperature was and the temperature when the balls were measured was, and the time at which the balls were measured. The Wells / Exponent report concludes that the set(s) of assumptions favorable to the Patriots are not plausible and thus IGL can't plausibly explain the level of deflation. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on that, but IGL does not fully exonerate the Patriots depending on which assumptions are made, and therefore pounding the IGL doesn't change anything.
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I would dispute the "reasonable minds" thing, unless we are comfortable thinking the balls were being snuck into the bathroom to deflate .15 PSI, which has absolutely no practical effect. It also asks us to ignore the testimony of Anderson, whom the NFL took at face value for every other piece of information.
 
dcmissle

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Myt1 said:
The phone thing was so, so galactically stupid (or brilliant if it had a smoking gun) that it was a gut punch to anyone who drinks and knows things. "I always destroy them but not the one before this one I destroyed, I still have that one" is the sort of thing that rightly gets people laughed out of court. It's a huge, huge credibility issue.
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We said it at the time but most of Gen Y will never, ever, never, never, ever, ever get it. Cuz -- privacy!

This is one of the things Kessler probably would have handled more effectively. A lesson of this case is have the right guys with the right tools at the right time. Brady had the plumber by his side when the electrician should have been there, the electrician when he needed the finisher, and so forth.
 
lexrageorge

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Super Nomario said:
IGL can explain the level of deflation if you assume certain things, and it can't explain it if you assume other things - specifically, which gauge was used, what the starting temperature was and the temperature when the balls were measured was, and the time at which the balls were measured. The Wells / Exponent report concludes that the set(s) of assumptions favorable to the Patriots are not plausible and thus IGL can't plausibly explain the level of deflation. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on that, but IGL does not fully exonerate the Patriots depending on which assumptions are made, and therefore pounding the IGL doesn't change anything.
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That was the conclusion that was thoroughly debunked.
 
splendid splinter

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Ed Hillel said:
I would dispute the "reasonable minds" thing, unless we are comfortable thinking the balls were being snuck into the bathroom to deflate .15 PSI, which has absolutely no practical effect. It also asks us to ignore the testimony of Anderson, whom the NFL took at face value for every other piece of information.
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This is what kills me. If you accept Exponent's assumptions for the sake of argument, you're left with the implication that Tom Brady directed that the equivalent of a breath of air be let out of those footballs. It's such a ludicrous suggestion.
 
T

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Super Nomario said:
IGL can explain the level of deflation if you assume certain things
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It actually completely explains it if you don't apply an unnecessary constant to a fucking scientific Law.

Indianapolis's balls came in high due to the shoddy methodology where they just ignored the fact that the balls were not measured at the same time. In fact, if Indianapolis was accused of overinflation the same process and numbers used to nail NE could have been applied in the opposite direction. Since Wells couldn't have that (and it wouldn't have supported his case) Exponent inexplicably used Indy's balls as a control, applying a constant to make their balls work with the IGL and then keeping that constant when deciding whether or not NE's balls were low. So in effect, rather than testing whether NE's balls were low they instead tested whether the combinations of Indy's (high) and NE's (low) was more than the IGL would allow. And their shitty methodology (ignoring the difference in time the balls had to heat up) helped to make sure that combination was outside the allowed.

Remove that constant and NE's balls were fine. So no, you don't even have to make assumptions that favor NE other than "the Ideal Gas Law doesn't require a fucking control."
 
Bergs

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Super Nomario said:
IGL can explain the level of deflation if you assume certain things, and it can't explain it if you assume other things - specifically, which gauge was used, what the starting temperature was and the temperature when the balls were measured was, and the time at which the balls were measured. The Wells / Exponent report concludes that the set(s) of assumptions favorable to the Patriots are not plausible and thus IGL can't plausibly explain the level of deflation. Reasonable minds can certainly differ on that, but IGL does not fully exonerate the Patriots depending on which assumptions are made, and therefore pounding the IGL doesn't change anything.
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Fucking christ. Why do people insist on not actually paying attention to the details of the Wells Report? Yeah, if you "assume" batshit crazy nonsense, the IGA can't explain it. Great point.
 
Bergs

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amarshal2 said:
All he's saying is that the IGL can't prove the balls were not deflated, which is true.
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One can never prove a negative, so...uhhhh...OK I guess?

Providing equal weight to inequal arguments is essentially the entire narrative in this 18 month saga of dumbfuckery, and I'm equal parts drunk and sick of it.
 
dhappy42

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amarshal2 said:
All he's saying is that the IGL can't prove the balls were not deflated, which is true.
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Is it, though?

The Wells Report says the before and after temps were 71*F and 48*F or 295*K and 282*K. (You have to use Kelvin when using the IGL.) That's a 4.4% temperature drop.

If everything else remains constant and ambient air temperature (according to weather records) was 14.6 psi, then the IGL predicts a 4.4% drop in ball pressure.

The internal air pressure of the balls before game time was 12.5 psi (gauge reading) + 14.6 psi (ambient air pressure) = 27.1 psi. (The gauge reads the difference between internal and external air pressure.)

95.6% of 27.1 psi is 25.9 psi. Adjusted back to gauge readings (subtract 14.6 psi) and you get 11.3 psi.

The average psi reading for all 11 footballs, each measured twice with two different gauges, was 11.3 psi, exactly what the IGL predicts.
 
Bergs

Bergs

funky and cold
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
21,695
dhappy42 said:
Is it, though?

The Wells Report says the before and after temps were 71*F and 48*F or 295*K and 282*K. (You have to use Kelvin when using the IGL.) That's a 4.4% temperature drop.

If everything else remains constant and ambient air temperature (according to weather records) was 14.6 psi, then the IGL predicts a 4.4% drop in ball pressure.

The internal air pressure of the balls before game time was 12.5 psi (gauge reading) + 14.6 psi (ambient air pressure) = 27.1 psi. (The gauge reads the difference between internal and external air pressure.)

95.6% of 27.1 psi is 25.9 psi. Adjusted back to gauge readings (subtract 14.6 psi) and you get 11.3 psi.

The average psi reading for all 11 footballs, each measured twice with two different gauges, was 11.3 psi, exactly what the IGL predicts.
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Yeah, but like...fuck you, ScienceMcScienceface.
 
Ed Hillel

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,973
Here
dhappy42 said:
The average psi reading for all 11 footballs, each measured twice with two different gauges, was 11.3 psi, exactly what the IGL predicts.
Click to expand...
To be fair, taking the average isn't really proper here, since it's a binary issue - one of the gauges was used pre-game, not both. However, the circumstances and the proximity to the PSI levels being where we'd expect them to certainly indicates that tampering was far less likely than it simply being a natural occurrence. Of course, Wells and Pash knew that, which is why they hired Exponent, discounted the refs testimony in a footnote with no logical explanation, and pulled that middle school bullshit with the pics of the gauges.
 
Super Nomario

Super Nomario

Member
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Nov 5, 2000
14,013
Mansfield MA
dhappy42 said:
Is it, though?

The Wells Report says the before and after temps were 71*F and 48*F or 295*K and 282*K. (You have to use Kelvin when using the IGL.) That's a 4.4% temperature drop.

If everything else remains constant and ambient air temperature (according to weather records) was 14.6 psi, then the IGL predicts a 4.4% drop in ball pressure.

The internal air pressure of the balls before game time was 12.5 psi (gauge reading) + 14.6 psi (ambient air pressure) = 27.1 psi. (The gauge reads the difference between internal and external air pressure.)

95.6% of 27.1 psi is 25.9 psi. Adjusted back to gauge readings (subtract 14.6 psi) and you get 11.3 psi.

The average psi reading for all 11 footballs, each measured twice with two different gauges, was 11.3 psi, exactly what the IGL predicts.
Click to expand...
My original point here is being lost - it was more about the Wells Report says, not about whether the Patriots are guilty or not.

At the risk of taking us further down this rabbit hole, however, you are missing a few things.
1) You are assuming the Patriots' footballs are exactly 12.5 PSI - obviously if they average 12.55 or 12.6, that's additional PSI that needs to be explained.
2) 71F is again a charitable assumption for the Pats - it could have been as low as 67 (and Exponent argues on page 52 that the lower end is more likely), which would add another 0.2 unexplained PSI
3) The balls were not measured at 48F at halftime. They were measured at some higher temperature as they returned to room temperature. Based on the charts in the exponent report and a reasonable WAG at timing (first Pats ball measured at 2 minutes, last at 7 minutes) based on Exponent data, the PSI would have raised between 0.1 and 0.3 PSI
4) Some of the balls were wet, which works in the Pats' favor, lowering PSI by as much as 0.2

Add it all up, and depending on the set of assumptions, the IGL explains anywhere from 60% of the pressure drop to 100%. If there was tampering, it was small. The science certainly is not damning evidence of tampering, but neither does it exonerate the Patriots - depending on the assumptions one makes. I think the penalty is absurd, I think the Wells Report was written in a biased fashion (it hides that IGL could explain 100% of the drop, and using the Colts balls as a control at all is flat-out laughable), and it's clear the NFL did not understand the Ideal Gas Law and generally handled this whole thing like boobs. None of that makes the Patriots 100% for sure innocent - there is not enough information to be sure.
 
amarshal2

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,913
dhappy42 said:
Is it, though?

The Wells Report says the before and after temps were 71*F and 48*F or 295*K and 282*K. (You have to use Kelvin when using the IGL.) That's a 4.4% temperature drop.

If everything else remains constant and ambient air temperature (according to weather records) was 14.6 psi, then the IGL predicts a 4.4% drop in ball pressure.

The internal air pressure of the balls before game time was 12.5 psi (gauge reading) + 14.6 psi (ambient air pressure) = 27.1 psi. (The gauge reads the difference between internal and external air pressure.)

95.6% of 27.1 psi is 25.9 psi. Adjusted back to gauge readings (subtract 14.6 psi) and you get 11.3 psi.

The average psi reading for all 11 footballs, each measured twice with two different gauges, was 11.3 psi, exactly what the IGL predicts.
Click to expand...
Yes, it is. You seem informed enough to realize this. Pick a different gauge, assume different measurement times, and don't average the balls. You can easily find balls that fall out of the expected range.

Of course I am convinced they didn't do it but it's not like there isn't a scientific possibility.
 
lexrageorge

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,186
Super Nomario said:
My original point here is being lost - it was more about the Wells Report says, not about whether the Patriots are guilty or not.

At the risk of taking us further down this rabbit hole, however, you are missing a few things.
1) You are assuming the Patriots' footballs are exactly 12.5 PSI - obviously if they average 12.55 or 12.6, that's additional PSI that needs to be explained.
2) 71F is again a charitable assumption for the Pats - it could have been as low as 67 (and Exponent argues on page 52 that the lower end is more likely), which would add another 0.2 unexplained PSI
3) The balls were not measured at 48F at halftime. They were measured at some higher temperature as they returned to room temperature. Based on the charts in the exponent report and a reasonable WAG at timing (first Pats ball measured at 2 minutes, last at 7 minutes) based on Exponent data, the PSI would have raised between 0.1 and 0.3 PSI
4) Some of the balls were wet, which works in the Pats' favor, lowering PSI by as much as 0.2

Add it all up, and depending on the set of assumptions, the IGL explains anywhere from 60% of the pressure drop to 100%. If there was tampering, it was small. The science certainly is not damning evidence of tampering, but neither does it exonerate the Patriots - depending on the assumptions one makes. I think the penalty is absurd, I think the Wells Report was written in a biased fashion (it hides that IGL could explain 100% of the drop, and using the Colts balls as a control at all is flat-out laughable), and it's clear the NFL did not understand the Ideal Gas Law and generally handled this whole thing like boobs. None of that makes the Patriots 100% for sure innocent - there is not enough information to be sure.
Click to expand...
Exponent ignored the fact that 0.2 psi is within the accuracy rating of these gauges. It's not enough to assume that a certain gauge was used and therefore the error is repeatable.

It was also never explained why Wells/Exponent selectively ignored Coleman's own testimony and made an assumption that was entirely unfavorable to the Patriots.
 
amarshal2

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,913
Their reasoning is that when they went out looking for gauges everything they found marched the gauge they used in the analysis/not the gauge Coleman said was used. Therefore it seems likely that the Pats gauge matched the non-Coleman gauge when they set to 12.5. Or something like that. The NFLPA countered that they didn't look for a gauge like the Coleman gauge and every gauge they did find was like the non-Coleman gauge so the search was biased.
 
OCST

OCST

Sunny von Bulow
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2004
24,548
The 718
Myt1 said:
The Patriots and Brady were so destroyed in the PR battle which clearly drove the legal reasoning of the amateurs on the bench who are no better than the OJ jurors that half the federal judges agreed with them and took the extremely rare position that a CBA arbitration result should be reversed. I know this is true because I read it on the Internet from some pissed off fans who think PR is Sean Connery's speech in The Untouchables and know that the public would have just suspended its decision-making about the guilt of the Spygate!!!11!1 Patriots and their handsome, goat hugging, super-model-loving golden boy QB had they been offered an angry Bob Kraft on consecutive days or, like, something.
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Sad!
 
Harry Hooper

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,605
lexrageorge said:
Exponent ignored the fact that 0.2 psi is within the accuracy rating of these gauges. It's not enough to assume that a certain gauge was used and therefore the error is repeatable.

It was also never explained why Wells/Exponent selectively ignored Coleman's own testimony and made an assumption that was entirely unfavorable to the Patriots.
Click to expand...

Amen. The fact that PSI readings with decimal points are still being tossed around speaks to the whole evil stupidity of the Exponent work.
 
nighthob

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,704
amarshal2 said:
Their reasoning is that when they went out looking for gauges everything they found marched the gauge they used in the analysis/not the gauge Coleman said was used. Therefore it seems likely that the Pats gauge matched the non-Coleman gauge when they set to 12.5. Or something like that. The NFLPA countered that they didn't look for a gauge like the Coleman gauge and every gauge they did find was like the non-Coleman gauge so the search was biased.
Click to expand...
Somewhere on this monster of a thread is an analysis from an outside source that demonstrated that the Colts reported pressures on the sidelines, using the Patriots' staff gauge, gave results consistent with the gauge that Anderson reported using. The ensuing disappearance of the gauges by the NFL would seem to bear out the claim.

EDIT: Here's the link. He points out that the NFL sideline official used the Patriots' staff gauge to measure the intercepted ball, they took three different readings and the air pressure readings were entirely consistent with the gauge that Anderson recalled using.
 
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geoduck no quahog

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Haven't seen this posted yet.

Daily News:

Roger Goodell should forget Tom Brady and Deflategate, focus on issues that really threaten the NFL

Roger Goodell should call it even with Tom Brady and put an end to Deflategate and focus all his attention and the NFL’s endless resources to find solutions to the concussion crisis...

Making Brady sit four games is vindictive, with the league admitting in court it had no direct evidence linking him to deflated footballs as it tries to hide behind the flawed Wells Report...

It has been a bunch of nonsense and a waste of time from the moment the Colts bellyached during the whipping they took from the Patriots in the 2015 AFC title game. The league spent about $5 million for Wells to come up with nothing better than it was more probable than not that Brady was at least generally aware of the deflation scheme...
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