Tracking the Mocks

Cellar-Door

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Well now that the lotto is set the mock drafts are actually starting to really consider need:
First mock taking into account team just went up from Givony at draftexpress:
Here's his picks for us:
3- Jaylen Brown
16- Furkan Korkmaz
23- Cheick Diallo
31-Malachi Richardson
35-Guerschon Yabusele
45- Ben Bentil
51- Prince Ibeh
58- Joel Bolomby

I don't hate it other than 3 and 31, but I think it's too many college players and I really hate 3 and 31.

I'm not going to bother with Nbadraft.net because they don't really start making an effort beyond clickbait until later:
Highlights- Hield at 3 (probably to me the worst possible pick at 3), EIGHT college players in 8 picks. ALL FUCKING EIGHT OF THEM ARE GUARDS!

I'm going to add tankathon because I like their site, no clue who they use for scouting or if they are any good I kind of doubt it since the only do round 1, but....
3- Bender
16- Korkmaz
23- Stone

Chad Ford (I don't have insider so on round 1 I found elsewhere not sure if he updated this):
3-Murray
16-Zizic
23-Maker

NBA.com (Scott Howard-Cooper):
3- Bender
16- Valentine
23- Zizic
 
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chilidawg

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Givony has Maker at 32, there's no way I'd pass him up at 31. Brown is surprising at 3, I thought his stock was falling. Maybe he's showing more at workouts.

If we're making all these picks I'd go with more Euros, but both Korkmaz and Yabusele are intriguing. One of Zizic/Zubac would be nice. I think I'd take them over Diallo at 23, especially if you thought you could get Maker at 31.
 
Cellar-Door

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chilidawg said:
Givony has Maker at 32, there's no way I'd pass him up at 31. Brown is surprising at 3, I thought his stock was falling. Maybe he's showing more at workouts.

If we're making all these picks I'd go with more Euros, but both Korkmaz and Yabusele are intriguing. One of Zizic/Zubac would be nice. I think I'd take them over Diallo at 23, especially if you thought you could get Maker at 31.
Click to expand...
Givony has both the Z's gone by 23.

Personally I'm 100% out on Maker, of the guys Givony has available there I'd much rather Zimmerman, Stone, Yabusele, Zagorac, Cordinier, McCaw, or Onuaku.

I'm incredibly leary of a Youtube mixtape guy who avoided competition intentionally, and didn't dominate against players who are both athletically inferior and younger than him.

He's a guy who even if he'll be good seems like it will be 3/4 years away at least, and he isn't going to let someone stash him in Europe to develop. He's got bust written all over him.
 
nighthob

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If Boston really could get Prince while adding Korkmaz as a draft & stash at #23 they would have had a successful night regardless of what happens at #3 (I realize that I'm higher on Prince than most).
 
BigSoxFan

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sox311 said:
I watched the video with Jaylen Brown interviewed, it was refreshing. He seems like a smart kid, most of these college kids don't.
Click to expand...
Which is weird because I saw a report where a front office guy called him by far the worst interview. No idea what to believe.
 
DannyDarwinism

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BigSoxFan said:
Which is weird because I saw a report where a front office guy called him by far the worst interview. No idea what to believe.
Click to expand...
I saw that quote as well, but reading more about him, it seems like he's a very bright guy who thinks differently than most people and can come across as confident to the point of arrogance and somewhat aloof. I'm not sure what, if anything, these interview impressions say about his coachability. That's a tough thing to suss out. The Suns basically took Kawhi Leonard off their draft board because of his interview. FWIW, Bill Walton loves Brown- "He is one of the most interesting, thoughtful, conscientious and inspirational people I’ve ever had the chance to work with. And he’s only 19 years old." He's apparently a student of the game, and big Larry Bird fan. Isiah Thomas (a mentor of our own Isaiah Thomas) is one of his advisors. His poor handle, vision and jump shot are reason enough to avoid him, but I do get the sense that he could excel in the right environment and defend three positions from day one in the NBA.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Tankathon added the second round:
31- Qi
35- Hernangomez
45- McCaw
51- Hammons
58- Layman

That added to their 1st of Bender, Korkmaz and Stone is a really interesting draft. Nice balance of bigs and 3s, a few stashes.
I'd really love that draft actually.


Edit- They changed the 1st and I missed it:
3- Bender
16- Stone
23- Jackson

I like that less, they seem to have Stone rising
 
Cellar-Door

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Okay.
nbadraft has finally uploaded a legit one:
3- Hield
16- Diallo
23- Zimmerman
31-Stone
35-Levert
45- Finney-Smith
51- Cordinier
58- Uthoff
 
nighthob

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Cellar-Door said:
Tankathon added the second round:
31- Qi
35- Hernangomez
45- McCaw
51- Hammons
58- Layman

That added to their 1st of Bender, Korkmaz and Stone is a really interesting draft. Nice balance of bigs and 3s, a few stashes.
I'd really love that draft actually.


Edit- They changed the 1st and I missed it:
3- Bender
16- Stone
23- Jackson

I like that less, they seem to have Stone rising
Click to expand...
I also hate that they have Boston passing up a legitimate NBA player (Kay Felder) for two draft & stash longshots at the top of round two.
 
HomeRunBaker

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nighthob said:
I also hate that they have Boston passing up a legitimate NBA player (Kay Felder) for two draft & stash longshots at the top of round two.
Click to expand...
Some of the stuff I've heard coming out of that site the last couple years make me question if they even know wtf they are talking about. I don't know if this was from a rogue writer for them or from their main guy but it makes me take what comes out of that site with a grain of salt.
 
nighthob

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I mean I get that Boston needs to find either draft & stash guys or guys willing to play in D for a year while they work out their roster issues, but there are legit NBA rotation guys that will be on the board 31-35, that's not the spot for lottery tickets with little to no upside, you use the late #2s for those.
 
Cellar-Door

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nighthob said:
I mean I get that Boston needs to find either draft & stash guys or guys willing to play in D for a year while they work out their roster issues, but there are legit NBA rotation guys that will be on the board 31-35, that's not the spot for lottery tickets with little to no upside, you use the late #2s for those.
Click to expand...
QI and Hernangomez are both not at all close to your description.
They are also both considered significantly better prospects than someone like Felder.
 
OilCanMDS

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Cellar-Door said:
Chad Ford (I don't have insider so on round 1 I found elsewhere not sure if he updated this):
3-Murray
16-Zizic
23-Maker
Click to expand...
I can't believe nobody has made this joke yet: Chad Ford will wait until after the draft to update it.

I've been reading every mock I've been able to come across for the past couple weeks. The most popular pick at 3 seems to be Bender. I'm surprised how many mocks I've seen with Brown at 3 because he seemed to be considered a 5-10 pick a few weeks ago.
 
nighthob

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Cellar-Door said:
QI and Hernangomez are both not at all close to your description.
They are also both considered significantly better prospects than someone like Felder.
Click to expand...
Actually they're the definition of what I'm talking about. And in case you've missed it I have Felder in my top 15 for this draft, in terms of overall productivity when we look back at this draft in a decade's time. The reason that people don't think he's a good prospect is the same reason that Lil' Zeke went 60th as I screamed at my TV set in frustration, he's short. But unlike the BFCD Jr and Hernangomez, Felder is eventually going to start in the NBA.
 
Cellar-Door

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Things are officially getting weird:
New Givony draftexpress mock:
3- CHRISS?
16- Prince
23- Diallo
31- Richardson
35- Yabusele
45- Bentil
51- Ibeh
58- Bolomby

Seems that Chriss is rising fast, not sure I'm crazy about him.

Edit to add new NBAdraft:
3- Hield
16-Davis
23-Zimmerman
31- Stone
35- LeVert
45- Finney-Smith
51- Williams
58- Uthoff.

8 college guys again. Paired with 7 from Givony seems like people are putting too much weight on the whole "Ainge doesn't draft non-college guys" idea to me. Also of note, this is very low on Davis comparatively and high on Zimmerman.

Edit2- Vecenie at CBSsports has one up:
3- Bender
16- Valentine
23- Zizic

I like this one quite a bit
 
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RedOctober3829

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I'm selfishly hoping that Jameel Warney is one of those 5 second round pick choices. He's hard-working and very skilled for a player his size. If Sullinger is to leave, Warney would be a nice developmental piece with a similar skill set as was Sully's coming out of Ohio State. Sully added a better jumper in the NBA which I hope Jameel will do.
 
DJnVa

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I was hoping we'd eventually get a recommendation to draft a Stony Brook guy from you. You were cutting it kind of close.
 
Cellar-Door

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Kevin O'Connor's first round mock (he does it based on who he thinks teams SHOULD draft not who they will):
3- Bender
16- Bembry
23- Qi
 
BigSoxFan

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I still can't get over the Tyrus Thomas vibes for Chriss. Better perimeter shooter obviously but he scares me more than Bender.
 
Cellar-Door

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BigSoxFan said:
I still can't get over the Tyrus Thomas vibes for Chriss. Better perimeter shooter obviously but he scares me more than Bender.
Click to expand...
If I were comparing the two I'd say Chriss has a bit higher ceiling, and a much lower floor. On the whole I prefer Bender because I think he's more likely to come close to his ceiling than Chriss.
 
nighthob

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I don't think it's Chris vs. Bender per se, it's Chris + added value for trading back vs. Bender. I'd guess it's what constitutes the added value.
 
chilidawg

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The whole 3-8 range is so volatile right now that I don't think you can trade down and expect that someone like Chriss (or Bender, Hield, Murray ....) will be there. If Ainge really likes one of these guys I think you take them at 3. If you think their value is relatively equal, then you try to trade down and take whoever is left.
 
nighthob

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I don't see a world's difference in the 3-12/13 range. So if someone grabs Chriss in the top five you happily take the guy that slides as a result and smile for whatever else you got out of the deal.
 
Cellar-Door

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nighthob said:
I don't see a world's difference in the 3-12/13 range. So if someone grabs Chriss in the top five you happily take the guy that slides as a result and smile for whatever else you got out of the deal.
Click to expand...
I think it would have to be a really significant return to make that worth it.
Personally I think there ARE clear distinctions between the players 3-12, and I would guess AInge and most GMs agree with that, however they may have different preferences and orders among themselves.

Given the roster and pick situation for the Celtics I don't see how trading back makes much sense unless the value return is massive. What the Celtics need more than anything is a star (Now or in the future), from what we've seen in the past the #3 is probably a better asset for a trade for a star than say.. 8 and a bunch of parts (the return you're probably talking about).

Beyond that, I have to think that internally there is no way Ainge has 8 guys with the exact same grade, so if you are picking, you just use the 3 and take the guy you think has the best chance of being developed into a star. No reason to trade back for a few mediocre pieces that you don't have roster space for anyway if that reduces the chances even a tiny bit of getting a star with the early pick.

Now, personally I think that pick is Bender, but if Ainge thinks it is Chriss I'd rather see him just take Chriss at 3 than trade back a few picks and play cute hoping his guy is there (or taking someone lower on the list) unless the assets attained are truly exceptional. This is where I think it differs from the NFL draft. In the NBA you start 5 guys, play probably 8-10, and can only roster 15. So the value of getting a slight upgrade at the bottom of the roster is worth far less than a slight upgrade in the top 10. For the Patriots, trading down and maybe taking a slight hit on one starter to get better at another starter makes sense, but in the NBA it's usually taking a hit at a high minutes player for a low minutes player, which is not worth it.

Now obviously it depends on the offer, but I don't see where an offer that makes sense would come from. Most teams in the lottery don't have a ton of non-draft pick assets to reasonably package with a top 12 pick that make the Celtics significantly better. And adding more future mid-1sts doesn't make much sense. That's why I would guess that a trade of 3 is more likely a trade out than a trade down.
 
nighthob

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I agree that their first goal is to trade #3 for a star. Unfortunately I only see one that I think is moving in the near future and I'll be stunned if he isn't a Laker on draft night or shortly thereafter. That leaves praying that someone at three turns into a star, or moving back for future firsts. I've said it often, I think the sweet spot this year is the 8-18 range, and I'm not adverse to Boston turning #3/#23 into a pair of picks in that range and some future picks to chase after a star player next trade deadline.
 
BigSoxFan

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nighthob said:
I agree that their first goal is to trade #3 for a star. Unfortunately I only see one that I think is moving in the near future and I'll be stunned if he isn't a Laker on draft night or shortly thereafter. That leaves praying that someone at three turns into a star, or moving back for future firsts. I've said it often, I think the sweet spot this year is the 8-18 range, and I'm not adverse to Boston turning #3/#23 into a pair of picks in that range and some future picks to chase after a star player next trade deadline.
Click to expand...
Denver would be your trade partner then with 7/15 but that isn't enough for 3/23. Could get there if they toss in another asset. Would be guaranteed Brown, Hield, Murray, or Chriss.
 
Cellar-Door

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Sharp at SI has a new mock:
3- Bender
16- Valentine
23- Zizic

New Chad Ford
3- Dunn
16- Zizic
23- Diallo


Hoopshype
3- Hield
16- Davis
23- Zimmerman

Parish at CBS
3- Murray
16- Sabonis
23- Diallo
 
Cellar-Door

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Not a mock draft, but putting it here anyway. Dean Demakis has up his big board. As usual it's a bit unconventional.
https://deanondraft.com/2016/06/03/2016-big-board/

Highlights in terms of higher than average:
Bender at 1.
Wayne Baldwin at 5.
Onuaku at 7.
Qi at 15

Highlights of fallers:
Buddy Hield at 21
Skal at 34
Richardson at 87
 
luckiestman

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Are guys currently doing team workouts? How much do those workouts matter compared to college scouting. I ask this and in the back of my mind I'm thinking about Penny Hardaway. I used to watch college basketball and I remember not even knowing who Penny was (never saw Memphis) and all of a sudden he was going 3rd. So, without access to these workouts, how can you hold a strong opinion on this stuff?
I think I remember (and this is going back 25 years now) people talking about how impressive he was in workouts which I, of course, didn't see.
 
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Cellar-Door

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luckiestman said:
Are guys currently doing team workouts? How much do those workouts matter compared to college scouting. I ask this and in the back of my mind I'm thinking about Penny Hardaway. I used to watch college basketball and I remember not even knowing who Penny was (never saw Memphis) and all of a sudden he was going 3rd. So, without access to these workouts, how can you hold a strong opinion on this stuff?
I think I remember (and this is going back 25 years now) people talking about how impressive he was in workouts which I, of course, didn't see.
Click to expand...
Yes they are doing workouts, there are two types, ones set up by agents that a bunch of teams attend and private team workouts. Draftexpress has some of the highlights from the former in their interview videos. The later are obviously closed. Tough to say how much influence they have. Also a lot of agents are real careful what they let their clients do, and with whom. Last year for example supposedly a lot of the top guards refused to have any workouts where they would have to go up against Rozier.
 
DannyDarwinism

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Penny was a 6'7 point guard who won conference player of the year in both of his seasons at Memphis and was a consensus 1st team All-American as a sophmore after averaging 22.8/8.5/6.4/2.5/1.2. I don't know how much workouts move the needle today, but I suspect not much, and doubt they moved it significantly for Penny. For the rare prospect with limited playing time against decent competition, they may matter more, but for the most part, teams are going to place far more importance on the hours and hours of tape they have of guys playing actual meaningful games in NCAA, FIBA, Euroleague, or CBA.
 
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DJnVa

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luckiestman said:
Are guys currently doing team workouts? How much do those workouts matter compared to college scouting. I ask this and in the back of my mind I'm thinking about Penny Hardaway. I used to watch college basketball and I remember not even knowing who Penny was (never saw Memphis) and all of a sudden he was going 3rd. So, without access to these workouts, how can you hold a strong opinion on this stuff?
I think I remember (and this is going back 25 years now) people talking about how impressive he was in workouts which I, of course, didn't see.
Click to expand...


It seems odd to me that you watched college basketball and didn't know who Penny Hardaway was.
 
Cellar-Door

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Bodner at usatoday
3- Bender
16- Valentne
23- Sabonis

And just for fun, Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE-
3- Brown
16- Luwawu
23- Damian Jones
31- Zimmerman
35- Zipser
45- Bolomby
51- Siakam
58- Finney-Smith
 
Cellar-Door

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From Chris Reichert:
3- Bender
16- Valentine
23- Zubac

New Givony:
3- Chriss
16- Korkmaz
23- Valentine
31- Qi
35- Murray
45- Bentil
51- Ibeh
58- Bolomboy

Nbadraft:
3- Hield
16- Ellenson
23- Stone
31- Bembrey
35- Baldwin
45- Jacobs
51- Webb
58- Uthoff

CBSSports (Veceinie/Parrish)
3- Brown/Murray
16- Zizic/Korkmaz
23- Prince/Zizic

basketball insiders:
3- Murray/Murray/Brown/Brown
16- Sabonis/Sabonis/Sabonis/Valentine
23- Zubac/Prince/Hernangomez/Zizic
 
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edoug

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Murray has had a workout with the Celts.
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2016-washingtons-marquese-chriss-soars-into-top-10/

Jamal Murray, SG, Kentucky: Murray made 79 of 100 3-point attempts during his workout with the Celtics this week in a performance that suggests there's nothing fluky about the 40.8 percent he shot from 3-point range during his one season at Kentucky. Meantime, Boston really needs shooting. And I just can't imagine a scenario where Murray isn't a good NBA scorer. So the Celtics going this direction makes a lot of sense on multiple levels, I think.
 
bakahump

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DannyDarwinism said:
Penny was a 6'7 point guard who won conference player of the year in both of his seasons at Memphis and was a consensus 1st team All-American as a sophmore after averaging 22.8/8.5/6.4/2.5/1.2. I don't know how much workouts move the needle today, but I suspect not much, and doubt they moved it significantly for Penny. For the rare prospect with limited playing time against decent competition, they may matter more, but for the most part, teams are going to place far more importance on the hours and hours of tape they have of guys playing actual meaningful games in NCAA, FIBA, Euroleague, or CBA.
Click to expand...
Recently watched a 30 for 30 on the Magics startup and first few seasons.

One of the things they mentioned as a huge part of Pennys "surprise meteoric rise" was that Shaq was making a movie (Blue Chips). He and Penny played during filming and while hanging out. Shaq liked him. On Pennys part he was playing with a (newly minted) NBA Star and was smart enough to know making him look and feel good was smart business. Shaq had quotes about "If I put my hand up....the ball was there man".

According to the show Shaq called the Magic brass and said "Get this guy". They of course passed and took Webber. That had some scratching thier head as Webber and Shaq could have presented spacing issues. They then worked out the deal for Penny and 3 1sts making everyone happy. Shaq gets his guy. Magic get Penny and 3 1sts and GS gets their marquee player.

The show did not say if the GS deal was worked out ahead of time. If so, then that could have explained why Hardaway was chosen by GS at 3. (in order to facilitate the trade).
 
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DannyDarwinism

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bakahump said:
Recently watched a 30 for 30 on the Magics startup and first few seasons.

One of the things they mentioned as a huge part of Pennys "surprise meteoric rise" was that Shaq was making a movie (Blue Chips). He and Penny played during filming and while hanging out. Shaq liked him. On Pennys part he was playing with a (newly minted) NBA Star and was smart enough to know making him look and feel good was smart business. Shaq had quotes about "If I put my hand up....the ball was there man".

According to the show Shaq called the Magic brass and said "Get this guy". They of course passed and took Webber. That had some scratching thier head as Webber and Shaq could have presented spacing issues. They then worked out the deal for Penny and 3 1sts making everyone happy. Shaq gets his guy. Magic get Penny and 3 1sts and GS gets their marquee player.

The show did not say if the GS deal was worked out ahead of time. If so, then that could have explained why Hardaway was chosen by GS at 3. (in order to facilitate the trade).
Click to expand...
It's crazy to think that Shaq had that kind of clout as a rookie. But I guess I still take issue with the categorization of Penny as a surprise meteoric rise. He was one of the top recruits out of high school, (there was a reason he was in Blue Chips in the first place) where he was Parade Magazine's high school player of the year, back when that meant something. He then went on to dominate in his two years at college- the aforementioned Player of the Year awards, the 1st team All-American, Naismith and Wooden finalist, and selected to the developmental squad to scrimmage the Dream Team. I don't know why he chose to stay local at Memphis, surely this cost him some exposure, but he was still very much on the map of NBA front offices. I guess him going ahead of Mashburn is surprising, maybe J.R too, but looking at that draft (understanding hindsight bias is tough to overcome) his position given where he was at at the time seems pretty justified. FWIW, the other four 1st Team All-Americans (Webber, Mashburn, Cheaney, Hurley) from 1993 were all drafted with the first 7 picks, with Sean Bradley and JR Rider as the other two.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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luckiestman said:
Are guys currently doing team workouts? How much do those workouts matter compared to college scouting. I ask this and in the back of my mind I'm thinking about Penny Hardaway. I used to watch college basketball and I remember not even knowing who Penny was (never saw Memphis) and all of a sudden he was going 3rd. So, without access to these workouts, how can you hold a strong opinion on this stuff?
I think I remember (and this is going back 25 years now) people talking about how impressive he was in workouts which I, of course, didn't see.
Click to expand...
Penny was the National High School Player of the Year. He has to sit out his freshman year at Memphis so was off the national radar for a season but then was one of the best college players in each of his two seasons so he never made this meteoric rise leading up to the draft.......that summer had a concrete top-6 well before the draft with Webber clearly #1, Shawn Bradley going to Philly at 2, then Hardaway/Mashburn at 3/4 depending on who you believed, JR Rider 5 and Calbert Cheaney 6.

As was said above.....the workouts can move guys like Labissiere, Maker, Diallo, and those type......scouts and GM's don't need to see the guys they have been watching all year any more to know what they are.
 
luckiestman

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HomeRunBaker said:
Penny was the National High School Player of the Year. He has to sit out his freshman year at Memphis so was off the national radar for a season but then was one of the best college players in each of his two seasons so he never made this meteoric rise leading up to the draft.......that summer had a concrete top-6 well before the draft with Webber clearly #1, Shawn Bradley going to Philly at 2, then Hardaway/Mashburn at 3/4 depending on who you believed, JR Rider 5 and Calbert Cheaney 6.

As was said above.....the workouts can move guys like Labissiere, Maker, Diallo, and those type......scouts and GM's don't need to see the guys they have been watching all year any more to know what they are.
Click to expand...
Ok, the Penny thing is odd because I looked him up after I posted and read how he was so highly regarded but I really remember being surprised by the pick (but I was young) and the story about Shaq pulling the strings seems to go with the "surprise" factor. Thanks for the general answers on workouts.
 
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The show made it seem like Shaq had a significant amount of Pull. At least for the early 1990s. Today many of us wouldnt give that kind of clout for a young Superstar a second thought. Yes he was young and coming off his rookie season, but everyone knew he was the real deal. Plus Ownership was new. He had improved the Magic 20 games in his first season and the show went to great lengths describing how he WAS Orlando's entire sports scene those first couple years.

The Program was vague enough to make you think that the Magic would have been happy with Hardaway and 3 1s regardless of Shaqs preference. To me the show reinforced the idea that this worked out perfect for everyone involved.

Check it out. I saw it on Netflix. The Magic Moment.

Nick Andersons collapse at the foul line (and subsequently his career FT shooting) was one of the most interesting things in the program. Talk about the Yips!
 
HomeRunBaker

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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bakahump said:
The show did not say if the GS deal was worked out ahead of time. If so, then that could have explained why Hardaway was chosen by GS at 3. (in order to facilitate the trade).
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I am almost certain that the trade was announced immediately based on my recollection of watching that draft......like maybe after 1-2 commercial breaks. Something like that almost always was a trade agreement prior to the selections.
 
wade boggs chicken dinner

wade boggs chicken dinner

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SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,742
bakahump said:
The show did not say if the GS deal was worked out ahead of time. If so, then that could have explained why Hardaway was chosen by GS at 3. (in order to facilitate the trade).
Click to expand...
This article says that the deal was worked out ahead of time and Nelson told Pat Williams he could have taken Webber or Shawn Bradley for Penny and the 3 firsts. Everyone knew Nelson wanted a big man and everyone knew that Orlando wanted Penny.

It would have been interesting to see Webber and Shaq face off against an all-Hardaway backcourt in GSW. Penny, Tim, and Chris Mullin would have been fantastic to watch.

Speaking of GSW, anyone else remember the legend of Billy Owens?
 
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