General Playoff Thread: The Long 2nd Season

HomeRunBaker

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That's exactly my point -- Westrbrook's ability to react and move more quickly than anyone else is an athletic skill, not a reflection of some psychological trait.

Psychology, competitiveness, and toughness matter a lot, but mostly in terms of willingness to work hard at preparation when the bright lights aren't on. The idea that the Thunder are "outworking" the Warriors because they "want it more" is total nonsense. They're just longer and faster and the Warriors haven't figured out how to tactically negate those advantages (if they can). But if they do, it will because the Warriors made some smart adjustments and figured out how to play their game, and not because they "toughened up" or "matched the Thunder's desire" or some psychological BS cliche.
Is it your opinion that effort and intensity levels don't matter in playoff basketball?
 

RedOctober3829

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The Thunder are just playing better basketball at this point in the season, guys. The Warriors seemed to peak in the regular season and combine that with Curry's injuries they aren't playing at their best. OKC's pieces around Westbrook/Durant have suddenly come together and are playing awesome.
 

coremiller

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Is it your opinion that effort and intensity levels don't matter in playoff basketball?
I mean, it matters, I'm just skeptical that there's any significant difference between teams' effort/intensity levels in the latter rounds of the playoffs. In the early rounds sometimes you get teams like Houston that just want to get out of there and go on vacation. And there have been the odd weird game/series where teams just don't show up (like when Kobe decided to stop shooting in that Game 7 against the Suns, or when the 2-time defending champ Lakers got totally blitzed by Dallas in 2011)

But most of the time, in the Conference Finals and later, effort/intensity are not what separates teams.
 
I used to be as hard on officials as anyone especially back when I played. Then I began officiating rec games one winter and only one winter......that's all it took for me to recognize how wrong I was all those years. You simply cannot comprehend everything that is occurring, nevermind at NBA quickness levels, without experiencing it firsthand.
I've been catching up on this thread and reflecting upon the constant issues with NBA refereeing, and one thing which has occurred to me is that basketball referees are probably too close to the action to do their job well. As a qualified soccer referee, one piece of advice we're always given as referees is to "go wide", i.e., step back far enough from the action to get a holistic view of the action and be able to see everything that's going on. That's virtually impossible to do in basketball, particularly given the size and athleticism of the average NBA player. Actually, fans at home watching through the standard halfcourt camera view are more likely to spot certain types of incidents than referees on the floor - e.g.:
Perimeter or open-floor travels were the hardest call for me to see when officiated back in the day. And now that I coach high school, I'd say it's the most consistent missed call by our conference refs.
Anyway, I think this discrepancy between what the fan sees and what the referees see is the single biggest problem with NBA refereeing. And short of positioning extra referees in the television camera position or dangling on platforms above the backboards or beneath the Jumbotron (which would be a sight to see but obviously isn't practical), I don't think there's any way to create the sort of width or space that referees need to see the whole court well.
 

jablo1312

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Part of the problem with hiding Curry defensively last night was that Klay got in early foul trouble. That meant they had to move Klay off Westbrook and hide him to keep him on the court for his offense, which meant Curry had to guard Westbrook. Curry can't keep up with Westbrook (no one can), and that wore Curry down in the second half, causing his offense to suffer.

But defense was not really the Warriors' issue last night. OKC only shot 43%. GSW's problems were turnovers, rebounding, fouls, and Curry's health.
Those are all certainly issues. The Warriors have defended well for stretches. But 91 points in 26 minutes of court time for that lineup speaks volumes to me. Part of that high point total is due to the quick pace the Thunder are playing at, but they are eviscerating the Warriors at their own game.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Neither of these are chokes, "choke" is the most misused word by sports fans. Choking is when you have a lead on an inferior team or player, and then end up losing because your head fucks with you. Jana Novotna forgetting how to serve in the Wimbledon Finals, choke. Jean Van De Velde, choke. OKC has now done this to two of the best regular season teams in NBA history (both also playoff-tested), this is just OKC raising their level and SA and GS not being able to match them (thus far for GS).
That's quite a rant for something with no basis other than your own opinion. Choke has been used for decades in the sports context to describe the phenomenon of decreased performance under increased pressure. Typically, that is either falling apart when having a seemingly insurmountable or very comfortable lead, or losing when heavily favored in an important event, especially after dominant performances in less stressful or meaningful matches. The former are the Van de Veldes and the 2004 Yankees you know so well. The latter would be in the GSW of this year or the South African cricket team historically.

Abstract
Choking under pressure is defined as performance decrements under circumstances that increase the importance of good or improved performance.

http://psycnet.apa.org/index.cfm?fa=buy.optionToBuy&uid=1984-16956-001
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I think that people have to stop comparing OKC's regular season stats with those of Golden State. For Donavan, the regular season was about experimentation. He had to re-integrate Durant (coming off an injury) into a lineup full of players he'd never played with before (Waiters, Kanter, Singler, DJ Augustin, etc.). He tried all sorts of different combinations out there; some worked, some didn't. From the Lee Jenkins article on SI.com (sorry my attempt to post a link was unsuccessful):

"They had a new coach, Billy Donovan, who experimented with lineups, minute allotments, pick-and-roll coverages. He went small, with Durant at power forward and Ibaka at center, and then big, with 6' 11" Enes Kanter alongside 7-foot Steven Adams. He played Durant and Westbrook together the entire first quarter, allowing the bench more freedom in the second, but that backfired so he staggered his stars’ court time. He stopped blitzing every ballhandler, a Thunder trademark, to better protect the three-point line. He emphasized weakside action, an OKC sore spot, to grease movement."

"'I needed to take risks,' Donovan says. 'I needed to get answers. Sometimes you have to throw stuff out there and see whether it’s a good idea or isn’t. I told the guys there would be some rocky roads.' They started 7–6. They lost eight of 12 after the All-Star break. At Florida, Donovan would have said he was playing for March. In Oklahoma City it was for May. Durant required some late-night reassurances, via text, from Presti and assistant GM Troy Weaver: Stay with this, they urged. Execs compared Donovan with a masseur, working out long-lasting knots, a process both painful and productive."

KD wasn't the only one getting impatient; Thunder fans complained incessantly about the lineups, Kyle Singler, Randy Foye, Kyle Singler, Randy Foye, and the defense. In any case, it's now the playoffs, and just like there was "Playoff Tito" there is "Playoff Donavan."
Okay, fine. Remove the OKC comparison. Point still stands. If you're making the argument that "defense wins championships" and Golden State's the best defensive team left in the playoffs, what's the argument?
 

johnmd20

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That's quite a rant for something with no basis other than your own opinion. Choke has been used for decades in the sports context to describe the phenomenon of decreased performance under increased pressure. Typically, that is either falling apart when having a seemingly insurmountable or very comfortable lead, or losing when heavily favored in an important event, especially after dominant performances in less stressful or meaningful matches. The former are the Van de Veldes and the 2004 Yankees you know so well. The latter would be in the GSW of this year or the South African cricket team historically.

Abstract
Choking under pressure is defined as performance decrements under circumstances that increase the importance of good or improved performance.

http://psycnet.apa.org/index.cfm?fa=buy.optionToBuy&uid=1984-16956-001
Please. Abby thinks it's the Red Sox who choked in 2004 because they fell behind 3-0. He has no idea what he's talking about on this topic.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I mean, it matters, I'm just skeptical that there's any significant difference between teams' effort/intensity levels in the latter rounds of the playoffs. In the early rounds sometimes you get teams like Houston that just want to get out of there and go on vacation. And there have been the odd weird game/series where teams just don't show up (like when Kobe decided to stop shooting in that Game 7 against the Suns, or when the 2-time defending champ Lakers got totally blitzed by Dallas in 2011)

But most of the time, in the Conference Finals and later, effort/intensity are not what separates teams.
I agree with this. To paraphrase an old saying, if someone can't get geared up to a play a NBA conference finals game, then he is in the wrong profession.

To me what is more important is confidence, or swagger, and OKC has taken that from GSW. GSW was walking on to the court knowing that if they ever got in a pinch, they had a lineup to go to that was better than anything the other team could put on the floor. Having that taken away so decisively is a tough thing to overcome.

Maybe Kerr has a counter-move but his options are pretty limited. I suspect that at some point he tries to go even smaller but I don't see that helping with KD and Ibaka on the floor.
 

coremiller

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The real key, at least on offense, is just for Curry to play better. Turn the ball over less and make more shots, and you take away all the transition stuff where OKC is killing them right now, and force OKC to play in the halfcourt, where their offense has been merely ok.

It doesn't matter what Kerr does if Curry shoots 6/20 with 6 turnovers. Some of that is OKC's length on defense, granted, but even apart from missing threes (and he missed a few good looks last night), Curry is failing to do things he's normally excellent at -- split double-teams or pass to open guys when trapped, take advantage of switches in the PNR, finish at the rim, etc. That he's playing so much worse than his usual level suggests to me that he's far from 100% healthy:

Curry has been a shell of himself – missing shots, throwing away passes, losing his dribble and completely unable to prove that there's Curry-esque agility in that knee. "He's playing at 70 percent, at best," a source close to Curry told The Vertical. Curry refuses to make excuses, but privately the Thunder see something – no explosion, no ability to make the bigs switching onto him pay a price. Nineteen points on 20 shots Tuesday night bore no resemblance to the two-time NBA Most Valuable Player.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/draymond-green-on-warriors--fall-from-73-wins-to-3-1-hole---it-s-stunning-072224030.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
 

Hagios

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Okay, fine. Remove the OKC comparison. Point still stands. If you're making the argument that "defense wins championships" and Golden State's the best defensive team left in the playoffs, what's the argument?
Yes but even their defense is based on *cough* finesse. Lots of movement, players switching off defensive responsibilities, guards on centers, sowing seeds of confusion and chaos. The reason for the "defense wins championships" slogan is that the refs tend to swallow their whistles a bit in the postseason* so a rougher and more physical style of defense emerges. You can get away with more contact and there is more pushing and shoving for rebounds. Defense becomes less about the scheme and more about athleticism.

* This being SoSH I should probably qualify that statement. I wouldn't say that the refs swallow their whistles so much as that basketball has multiple equilibria and a different equilibrium emerges in the playoffs.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I mean, it matters, I'm just skeptical that there's any significant difference between teams' effort/intensity levels in the latter rounds of the playoffs. In the early rounds sometimes you get teams like Houston that just want to get out of there and go on vacation. And there have been the odd weird game/series where teams just don't show up (like when Kobe decided to stop shooting in that Game 7 against the Suns, or when the 2-time defending champ Lakers got totally blitzed by Dallas in 2011)

But most of the time, in the Conference Finals and later, effort/intensity are not what separates teams.
I agree with this general premise. I was only pointing out what I saw as obvious in the past two games. One team clearly out worked and out hustled the other and did so pretty consistently throughout both games.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yes but even their defense is based on *cough* finesse. Lots of movement, players switching off defensive responsibilities, guards on centers, sowing seeds of confusion and chaos. The reason for the "defense wins championships" slogan is that the refs tend to swallow their whistles a bit in the postseason* so a rougher and more physical style of defense emerges. You can get away with more contact and there is more pushing and shoving for rebounds. Defense becomes less about the scheme and more about athleticism.
.

I simply cannot agree that the Warriors are a "finesse" team. Klay Thompson is a well above average on the ball defender and has been effective for stretches on Westbrook. Draymond Green is a defender who usually can guard just about anybody on the court - admittedly we haven't seen that this series. Andrew Bogut is a good rim protector, Andre Iguodala is a plus defender and Harrison Barnes is an average to above average defender. I don't think anyone would call any of those players finesse players in any sense of the word. They are all fairly physical players and I don't think they are fooling teams by using confusion.

Regarding the athleticism, I know it appears to those who casually watch basketball that the Thunder are clearly more athletic than Golden State and this may be true *this series*. Westbrook aside, I would say the athleticism is fairly even across the teams and that the difference is defensive scheming of Donovan (forcing the Warriors to go inside and then using their length to bother their shots) as well as Curry not playing up to his potential.

* This being SoSH I should probably qualify that statement. I wouldn't say that the refs swallow their whistles so much as that basketball has multiple equilibria and a different equilibrium emerges in the playoffs.
I agree with this statement. One other thing that the Thunder have done much better than the Warriors is adapt their game-plan to how games are being officiated. And while it isn't the reason OKC is up 3-1, its been a contributor in how the Thunder have attacked Golden State - look at the FTAs in the series - OKC has 128 to GS's 99.
 

Cellar-Door

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OKC is winning with Athleticism and by murderizing them on the boards. GS when the struggled in the regular season it was against long athletic defenders who can switch like crazy, which OKC going all out is maybe the best in the league at. Draymond has been just swallowed up by Durant/Adams/Ibaka, he can't beat them off the dribble, can't back them down and can't shoot over them with any consistency. Curry they are being physical with, and daring him to drive.
The other key is that they are just killing the "death lineup" where most teams are at a disadvantage, OKC loves seeing it, they have the guys to defend it, and they are pounding that lineup on the boards.
Kerr's insistence on putting Green on Roberson and making Curry defend Westbrook that much is crazy, Curry can't even come close to guarding him and it's wearing him down. It's amazing that the GSW team that ran opponents into the ground with pace is getting run out, but they are. OKC is getting easy baskets, and on top of it crashing the O-boards so effectively that GS can't leak out. OKC is also strangling the GS halfcourt PnR.
 

Kliq

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The athleticism for OKC has really helped them on switches on the pnr against Curry. With their normal starting five, all of them have shown the ability to effectively guard him on switches, with Adams and Durant being particularly impressive. The second bit is that GS cannot turn the ball over in transition or at the top of the key; doing that to a team with Westbrook and Durant is suicide.
 

DJnVa

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Heard 2 interesting stats this morning on the drive in:

1--The teams with the regular season win record in MLB, NHL, and NFL all failed to win titles that year. Obviously, should the Warriors lose, then that's all 4.

2--Before this season, 10 teams in NBA history won 65 games, with a +9 scoring margin. Those 10 teams all won the title. This year there were 2 such teams--the Spurs and the Warriors. OKC is a win away from defeating both.
 

ifmanis5

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Heard 2 interesting stats this morning on the drive in:

1--The teams with the regular season win record in MLB, NHL, and NFL all failed to win titles that year. Obviously, should the Warriors lose, then that's all 4.

2--Before this season, 10 teams in NBA history won 65 games, with a +9 scoring margin. Those 10 teams all won the title. This year there were 2 such teams--the Spurs and the Warriors. OKC is a win away from defeating both.
Wow, those are actually interesting. How often has the first one happened, if ever?
 

DJnVa

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I think they said something like the last 10 or so NBA teams that set the single season win record all won the title.
 

coremiller

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I think they said something like the last 10 or so NBA teams that set the single season win record all won the title.
Teams that set the wins record:

1996 Bulls 72
1972 Lakers 69
1967 76ers 68
1965 Celtics 62
1962 Celtics 60
1960 Celtics 59
1959 Celtics 52
1950 Lakers 51*

All of these teams won the title.

*In 1950, three teams tied for the record with 51 wins: Minneapolis, Rochester and Syracuse. However, Syracuse played four fever games, and so had a higher winning percentage. Minneapolis beat Syracuse in the Finals.

It's fun trivia, but I'm not sure how meaningful it is.
 

ifmanis5

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Pretty fascinated for tonight. What changes will Kerr make (if any)? Will the typical NBA playoff favorite hometown whistle be in effect to bail out the Warriors and Curry? Is Westbrook really going to keep hitting threes?
 

coremiller

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Something else to watch for tonight is the crowd. The Oracle crowd has gotten a little spoiled I think and doesn't quite bring the thunder (no pun intended) the way the 2007 We Believe crowds did. OKC has had better home crowds this series. The Dubs need all the help they can get from the crowd.
 

ifmanis5

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Something else to watch for tonight is the crowd. The Oracle crowd has gotten a little spoiled I think and doesn't quite bring the thunder (no pun intended) the way the 2007 We Believe crowds did. OKC has had better home crowds this series. The Dubs need all the help they can get from the crowd.
Great point. Used to be raucous to the point of near-riot status in that building. Now it feels like pink-hatted tech bandwagon oligarchs who peak up at the game while they text.
 

AMS25

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Pretty fascinated for tonight. What changes will Kerr make (if any)? Will the typical NBA playoff favorite hometown whistle be in effect to bail out the Warriors and Curry? Is Westbrook really going to keep hitting threes?
Looking forward to the game. Hoping the Thunder wrap it up tonight, but I expect Golden State will make it a really good game and that the Warriors will feed off of their home crowd. I'm sure the Warriors don't want their season to end tonight and that Kerr will try anything he can think of to get a win.
 

Tangled Up In Red

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Between home court and extending the series, I have a hard time believing whistles aren't going to go the Warriors' way tonight.
 

coremiller

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I think the Warriors will win tonight, because Steph and Draymond can't possibly both play that badly again, and there's no way OKC is going to play that well on the road. They'll still be good, but Roberson had 17 points, 12 boards, 5 steals, 3 assists, and 2 blocks in Game 4 -- this from a guy who averaged 4.8 pts/3.6 rbs/.8 steals during the regular season and had only one previous double-double in his career. Ibaka shot 7/11, Westbrook shot 4/8 on 3s (he's normally <30%), etc. Those things aren't likely to repeat anyway, but especially not on the road. OKC will be worse tonight. They could still win, because they've won the last two by big spreads and so have some margin for error. But I don't think we'll see them dominate like they did the last two games.

The other thing to watch for is that the Thunder have basically only played six guys the last two games. Waiters got big minutes as the 6th man, but Foye only played 13 minutes in Game 4 and Kanter 8. Those top-6 lineups have been killer, but if the Warriors get some early favorable whistles and someone on OKC gets in foul trouble, their whole gameplan goes out the window.
 

jablo1312

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Warriors staying big so far with Bogut at the 5 and only 1 of Iggy or Barnes on the court. OKC needs to try and get him in foul trouble to get him off the court and force them to play Ezeli more if GSW wants to stay big. Dubs protecting the rim very well so far (and not getting called for some of the stuff they were called for early in both OKC games).
 

coremiller

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Those top-6 lineups have been killer, but if the Warriors get some early favorable whistles and someone on OKC gets in foul trouble, their whole gameplan goes out the window.
Gonna pat myself on the back for this one. Adams getting 2 quick fouls and going out, while Bogut has no fouls yet, has allowed Bogut to control the paint on both ends. Bogut has been excellent.

Frankly, the Warriors should probably be up more considering that the Thunder 5-22 on FGs with no free throw attempts.
 

coremiller

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Donovan trying to steal some Kanter minutes here with Curry out. Curry kills Kanter on PNR switches.
 

jablo1312

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Lol sorry but this is a joke. Warriors getting a call on every single drive. Thunder getting calls on precisely 0 drives.
 

coremiller

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If Roberson can keep knocking down 3s, the Thunder became almost impossible to defend. He was only 31% this season.
 

coremiller

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OKC is 5-9 from 3, GSW is 1-8. That is ... unexpected. Curry and Thompson a combined 0-6.
 

coremiller

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Bogut has been awesome, his best game in a long time. His rebounding and rim protection have been huge. We may have underrated just how much his foul trouble in Game 4 hurt the Ws.
 

coremiller

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Yeah, this is big. A lot of that is improved defense. OKC is settling for a lot more jump shots in this game.