The sixers and building a winner

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TheRooster

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And yet those peers gave him votes for GM of the year the same year. So...

Either Hinkie sucks and the sixers are still crap or he did at worst fine and the sixers are in good shape.
I'll go with he sucks and the Sixers are still crap. Who knows if/when/how Saric plays on this side of the Atlantic. Embiid may very well be Oden redux. Noel doesn't seem destined for stardom. And there's not a decent guard in sight. When exactly will Philly win 40 games in a season, never mind 50? I guess that something will break their way sooner or later but there is a reason teams in all sports pay a premium for established talent.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I'll go with he sucks and the Sixers are still crap. Who knows if/when/how Saric plays on this side of the Atlantic. Embiid may very well be Oden redux. Noel doesn't seem destined for stardom. And there's not a decent guard in sight. When exactly will Philly win 40 games in a season, never mind 50? I guess that something will break their way sooner or later but there is a reason teams in all sports pay a premium for established talent.
Saric will play in Philly next season. Noel was the #6 pick. Should he be destined for stardom? Is that a fair standard? And Philly is about to draft a 6'10 point guard.
 
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zenter

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"The Process" failed and it was because he wasn't particularly interested in building relationships with players
Is this so?
other GMs
Definitely not so, given the number of deals he was able to make. Other teams don't need to talk to him if they don't want to.
Is this so?
and was thus unable to mitigate some of the collateral damage of trotting out a horrible basketball product year after year.
Fans - and more importantly the NBA - got mad that he didn't pay lip-service to "winning". He committed to the exact same strategy everyone else in the same situation does and did.

More to the point, "the process" (which he didn't coin) hasn't failed. We're in smack in the middle of a 5-7 rebuild. It could fail, but the coffin you're nailing shut is empty right now.
 
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cheech13

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Maybe it was a stretch to say players hated him, but situations like the KJ McDaniels contract, the Kirilenko buyout snafu, and the Payton/Orlando trade were clear examples of his approach rankling the people he was supposed to be working with. Maybe all that would have sorted out over time when Philly decided to actually dip into free agency or extend their young players, but the optics of how the front office worked were clearly terrible. Let us not forget that Colangelo was brought in specifically to smooth over a lot of the "ill will" that was developing.
 

LondonSox

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This is such nonsense, everyone tries to sign their 2nd round picks, now, to the longer term non guaranteed version that Hinkie used. KJ didn't want to sign it, and good for him. His choice. Hinkie decided that he would trade him, given he had no way of keeping him cheap, I never fully agreed with the trade, but that's by the by. His view was (I think) giving valuable playing time to a guy he had no ability to keep wasn't worth it, esp for a 2nd tier type of player.

AK47 refused to play for them. I don't know why. Most vets there, publicly at least, say they enjoyed it.

And for the record I wonder if KJ would do it differently? He got 1319 minutes with the Sixers and 33 for the rockets that first year, and 235 minutes this whole year. If KJ had signed a multi year deal he'd be playing regular minutes and maybe have better options than be buried on the bench.
I understand why this might annoy players. Signing that deal for Covington is going to get him paid after this contract. I also understand why not signing anyone would annoy agents. I understand Hinkie wasn't a great making nice guy. He's not perfect. That's hardly the point.
 

Devizier

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Maybe the Sonics just got lucky? They weren't the first team to tank all their assets for a string of high draft picks. As people recall, the Bulls did this in the early 2000s by emptying the cupboard for Curry and Chandler.

It helps when you acquire that run of first rounders in a stretch of historically great ones (like the Sonics did) and it doesn't help much when you are dealing with historically terrible ones (the Bulls, and seemingly the Sixers).
 

tims4wins

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Maybe the Sonics just got lucky? They weren't the first team to tank all their assets for a string of high draft picks. As people recall, the Bulls did this in the early 2000s by emptying the cupboard for Curry and Chandler.

It helps when you acquire that run of first rounders in a stretch of historically great ones (like the Sonics did) and it doesn't help much when you are dealing with historically terrible ones (the Bulls, and seemingly the Sixers).
This rings so true to me. When thinking about the Celtics returning to true contender status, it was always going to be about the Nets picks. Short of signing a Durant / Lebron type, or making a blockbuster trade (also using the picks), I always thought the Celtics had to get lucky in THREE different ways in order to capitalize on the picks:

1) The Nets had to be really bad for a few years and earn a lot of ping pong balls
2) The ping pong balls had to bounce the Celts way
3) The years in which the picks come to fruition had to be very good drafts, with multiple potential HOF-ers

#1 was achieved this year
#2 was semi-achieved in that the Nets finished with the 3rd worst record and got the #3 pick
#3 was most likely not achieved this year. Maybe Simmons and Ingram will be stars but the Celts can't get them anyway. And maybe there is another potential HOF-er beyond those 3, who knows. But this isn't a great draft in terms of stars

The Bulls plan wasn't bad, they just got unlucky. At least the Celts have a good foundation on which to build right now. Adding a prime Tyson Chandler type of player alone would be a huge difference maker for this C's team. Starting from scratch would be really hard.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Maybe it was a stretch to say players hated him, but situations like the KJ McDaniels contract, the Kirilenko buyout snafu, and the Payton/Orlando trade were clear examples of his approach rankling the people he was supposed to be working with. Maybe all that would have sorted out over time when Philly decided to actually dip into free agency or extend their young players, but the optics of how the front office worked were clearly terrible. Let us not forget that Colangelo was brought in specifically to smooth over a lot of the "ill will" that was developing.
What about the Payton/Orlando trade do you take issue with? Hinkie got back a first round pick to trade down 2 spots. I'm not sure I understand what the issue is?
 

moly99

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Maybe the Sonics just got lucky? They weren't the first team to tank all their assets for a string of high draft picks. As people recall, the Bulls did this in the early 2000s by emptying the cupboard for Curry and Chandler.
You can't tank assets. You trade them. The Sonics traded their assets for picks. They did not intentionally sabotage their own team just to improve their draft stock. With the exception of playing big, letting Durant shoot as much as he liked and letting Westbrook to play through his turnovers they didn't do anything different from a normal team.

They did get lucky, but then they also traded away Harden for 50 cents on the dollar and a big part of their luck was a product of stockpiling picks so their GM had the juice to make moves. They won the lottery with Ibaka, but they also gave Sam Presti a lot of lottery tickets to play with.

You can also look at the Raptors, who don't have a superstar yet acquired enough quality assets to let Masai Ujiri build a strong team.

Any team building strategy requires some good luck. You have to hope that a star becomes available for a trade, or that a very good player wants to sign with your team in free agency, or that the guys you draft turn into stars.

The only two ways to game the system are to acquire enough assets to let your GM make moves and build something (see the Celtics, Seattle/OKC, Cleveland or Toronto) or to tank. I don't like what was done in Philly, but they had no option to build a team through asset collection after the Bynum trade. So the only way to quickly rebuild was to tank.
 

Devizier

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You can't tank assets. You trade them.
Pedantry is boring as fuck. They tanked by trading their assets. There have been plenty of other teams that did this, including our very own Celtics, but these are three especially extreme examples.
The Sonics traded their assets for picks. They did not intentionally sabotage their own team just to improve their draft stock.
They did both at the same time. The Sonics were a middling 30-35 win team in the late Allen/Lewis era, thanks to injuries and the mediocrity of their surrounding talent. Dumping Allen and letting Lewis walk brought them down to the second worst record in the league.

Of course, they already had Durant in hand, and it was clear that it would take an exceptional turn of events for him not to become an elite player.

I compare the Sixers' strategy to the Bulls because of the vicious cycle they find themselves in. However, to the Sixers' credit, they didn't trade anyone nearly as good as Brad Miller and/or Ron Artest.
 

moly99

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Pedantry is boring as fuck. They tanked by trading their assets. There have been plenty of other teams that did this, including our very own Celtics, but these are three especially extreme examples.
Definitions matter.

Tanking is making decisions with the intent of making your team worse for the sake of improving a team's own draft stock. Asset building involves making trades for the purpose of collecting more picks and useful players.

The distinction is an important one for merely decent players entering their primes like Bradley, Crowder, Sullinger, Olynyk, etc. The Celtics are not tanking, and are not going to sabotage the development of those guys for the sake of getting a higher draft pick.
 
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Devizier

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Definitions matter.

Tanking is making decisions with the intent of making your team worse for the sake of improving a team's own draft stock. Asset building involves making trades for the purpose of collecting more picks and useful players.
That is a distinction without a difference, since you can (and often do) achieve both at the same time.
 

cheech13

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What about the Payton/Orlando trade do you take issue with? Hinkie got back a first round pick to trade down 2 spots. I'm not sure I understand what the issue is?
I don't really take any issue with it, but there were reports that Philly found about Orlando's draft promise to Payton and took him specifically to try excise some additional assets from the Magic. On one hand, you could say that's just smart practice, but it seems to have bothered some of the other GMs in the league. Maybe that's making too much of the situation, but the optics of some of the deals were really bad and no doubt contributed to the team replacing him with Colangelo.

AK47 refused to play for them. I don't know why. Most vets there, publicly at least, say they enjoyed it.
The Nets and Kirilenko's handlers have intimated that the deal was made with the expressed intent that Philly would buy him out so he could return home with his sick, pregnant wife. The Sixers not only reneged on that deal, but started fining him for not showing up.

Perhaps most of this stuff would have blown over in the long run, but it certainly seems like there was too much ill will in a relatively short amount of time.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I don't really take any issue with it, but there were reports that Philly found about Orlando's draft promise to Payton and took him specifically to try excise some additional assets from the Magic. On one hand, you could say that's just smart practice, but it seems to have bothered some of the other GMs in the league. Maybe that's making too much of the situation, but the optics of some of the deals were really bad and no doubt contributed to the team replacing him with Colangelo.
Well in that case, the Celtics should promise Simmons at #3 and Ingram at #16.
 

zenter

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I don't really take any issue with it, but there were reports that Philly found about Orlando's draft promise to Payton and took him specifically to try excise some additional assets from the Magic. On one hand, you could say that's just smart practice, but it seems to have bothered some of the other GMs in the league. Maybe that's making too much of the situation, but the optics of some of the deals were really bad and no doubt contributed to the team replacing him with Colangelo.
So...Help me understand:
- Worst case, Hinkie leveraged a situation to get an additional asset. This is... bad?
- Best case, he wanted Payton as well, and the Magic were willing to pay extra to get him. This is... bad?
- In all likelihood, it's a mix of best and worst cases. And I have no doubt that all teams do some version of this kind of arbitrage, especially when stupid promises are made.

Doesn't seem fireable, even if it happened repeatedly. Good management is arranging your team to win.

The Nets and Kirilenko's handlers have intimated that the deal was made with the expressed intent that Philly would buy him out so he could return home with his sick, pregnant wife. The Sixers not only reneged on that deal, but started fining him for not showing up.
Other than Kirilenko, are there lots of reports of player issues? I ask because Tayshaun Prince has similar criticisms of Ainge breaking promises, and no GM lacks a few critics. I have no sense of how much more prevalent this was for Hinkie versus other GMs.

Not saying Hinkie wasn't an ass - he was/is, semi-famously - but I think we don't need to look too deep for reasons to push him out, and none of them are basketball ops. A GM needs to manage the media and fan relations. He failed at this.
 

cheech13

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So...Help me understand:
- Worst case, Hinkie leveraged a situation to get an additional asset. This is... bad?
- Best case, he wanted Payton as well, and the Magic were willing to pay extra to get him. This is... bad?
- In all likelihood, it's a mix of best and worst cases. And I have no doubt that all teams do some version of this kind of arbitrage, especially when stupid promises are made.
I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole on this, but it was one of those stupid "unwritten rules of baseball" things where it was considered uncouth to draft a player you didn't want for the sole purpose of fleecing another team.

Not saying Hinkie wasn't an ass - he was/is, semi-famously - but I think we don't need to look too deep for reasons to push him out, and none of them are basketball ops. A GM needs to manage the media and fan relations. He failed at this.
This is my take-away as well. We can't really rate his team-building skills, but he clearly failed at building long-term trust in his vision and that's why he no longer has a job.
 
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RG33

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Great, so Hinkie = Duquette. Now, who are they going to draft?
 

LondonSox

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I don't really take any issue with it, but there were reports that Philly found about Orlando's draft promise to Payton and took him specifically to try excise some additional assets from the Magic. On one hand, you could say that's just smart practice, but it seems to have bothered some of the other GMs in the league. Maybe that's making too much of the situation, but the optics of some of the deals were really bad and no doubt contributed to the team replacing him with Colangelo.


The Nets and Kirilenko's handlers have intimated that the deal was made with the expressed intent that Philly would buy him out so he could return home with his sick, pregnant wife. The Sixers not only reneged on that deal, but started fining him for not showing up.

Perhaps most of this stuff would have blown over in the long run, but it certainly seems like there was too much ill will in a relatively short amount of time.
Yeah that is one side. The sixers said publically from the start they wanted him to play. It's not his call after all. He threw a tantrum for being traded to the sixers as far as I can tell.
They let him go back and look after his wife and then he said he wouldn't come back. I'm unclear why the sixers are dicks for wanting a player under contract to play esp after giving him some time to deal with personal issues.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Result isn't the process, the decisions are. So the people now claiming the sixers are set up so well for the future who were also slamming Hinkie are full of shit. Either Hinkie sucks and the sixers are still crap or he did at worst fine and the sixers are in good shape.

Look I get people really struggle to look impartially at this but whatever. I know where I stand disagree if you wish.
Hinkie is the best ever . . . . at convincing his bosses to throw away multiple seasons.

A lot of his moves were predicated on this - he could bring on salary and he could wait and extract the maximum possible value out of trades because he didn't have the same pressures as other GMs. So in some ways he was a great GM.

BTW, here is a list of moves that were made in HOU when he was there. Interesting that there were no real short-term impact moves but HOU did trade for some really good players when was there like Lowry, DeMare Carroll, and Dragic.

There have been plenty of other teams that did this, including our very own Celtics, but these are three especially extreme examples.
Every time I read about the Cs and tanking, I am reminded about this Chad Finn article that demonstrates the fine between success and failure: http://touchingallthebases.blogspot.com/2005/06/pitino-dynasty.html
 

LondonSox

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Well he's been a solid gm as he was asked to build for the future and not worry about the present. He has put the team in a great situation for the future from one of the worst in the league. He could have done better and perhaps others could have done as well with the same remit.

But given the starting point and the end he did great. I don't really understand any other view. The team had one all star and he was hurt and over rated. No picks and now has a foundation, if not one of the best foundations to built on for any non contender.

The best argument against him is that others could have done this. But the Noel trade and the Kings trade are examples of just insanely one sided trades which assuming another would have pulled of is a bit much.

Further everyone mocked him for accumulating 2nd round picks, only for him to turn two into that insane kings trade and now everyone wants more seconds as this draft is deep and high seconds are valuable.
Sadly colangelo gave up two to get an average point guard. Of course this in part was due hinkie screwing up on the point guard situation. So point counterpoint.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Yahoo reports that the Sixers are discussing a Noel for Teague swap. It seems more like a win now, be mediocre over the long term move to me. What do more knowledgeable people think?
 

Devizier

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Yahoo reports that the Sixers are discussing a Noel for Teague swap. It seems more like a win now, be mediocre over the long term move to me. What do more knowledgeable people think?
Not sure if more knowledgeable applies, but sounds like the Sixers aren't interested in signing Noel to an RFA offer.
 

cheech13

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Teague is a good player but he's an unrestricted free agent next summer. That's a lot to give up for what amounts to a probable rental.
 

BigSoxFan

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Teague is a good player but he's an unrestricted free agent next summer. That's a lot to give up for what amounts to a probable rental.
Especially for a team that has absolutely no shot at contending in 2016-2017. Would be a great trade for Atlanta.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not sure if more knowledgeable applies, but sounds like the Sixers aren't interested in signing Noel to an RFA offer.
I expect Colangelo to clean house from all of the players from the previous regime possibly as early as this summer. Clearing out the logjam of 5's and acquiring a legitimate starting 1 would kill two birds with one stone.

Teague is a good player but he's an unrestricted free agent next summer. That's a lot to give up for what amounts to a probable rental.
They would have to extend Noel the year after anyway. Having the ability to go an extra year on a big contract would give them a hand up in retaining Teague as well.
 

Cellar-Door

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I expect Colangelo to clean house from all of the players from the previous regime possibly as early as this summer. Clearing out the logjam of 5's and acquiring a legitimate starting 1 would kill two birds with one stone.



They would have to extend Noel the year after anyway. Having the ability to go an extra year on a big contract would give them a hand up in retaining Teague as well.
Actually same time for Noel and Teague free agencies. Noel redshirted his first year which is why people forget that this is his 4th season coming up not 3rd.
 

LondonSox

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Noel for Teague is exactly what people like myself feared, a move for a young player with upside for a mediocre player with no upside.
I think one of Noel and Okafor is going to get moved, and it's been so telegraphed it's goign to be hard to get fair value. But Jeff Fucking Teague on a one year deal for the wrong centre is pretty much exactly what I feared.
Noel I can see working well with a Simmons led team, and anchoring an up tempo team defensively. Okafor doesn't obviously fit the style simmons would seem to thrive in, high pace, transition etc.
Noel for me is a great fit for the modern NBA, athletic, shot blocker who can switch onto smaller guys easily on switches, can attack the rim from the weak side for dunks and off the pick and roll. He's not going to be a good jump shooter and his hands are the only thing stopping him from being a really excellent player right now. He's who I would want, valuable as a starter or off the bench.

I think okafor is undervalued, he's so young and so talented offensively, but he's a bad fit especially for Simmons.
 

Devizier

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I'm also intrigued by the deal from the Hawks' perspective. Assuming that Horford walks (likely) that means they are subtracting two of their frontline scorers and adding one of the worst offensive players in the league. I understand handing the reins over to Schroeder, but that is going to be a pretty bad team, offensively. I suppose weak offense was bound to happen with or without a Noel trade (due to Horford's departure).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Moved from offseason thread.


To be fair, we have no idea about the validity of such an offer. Noel could certainly end up fetching more than Teague.
To be fair Teague is a borderline All-Star who iirc was selected 18 months ago to participate in the game. While he certainly isn't a top tier guy which Noel doesn't ever figure to be either this isn't Ish Smith we are talking about here. He was the best player on the floor in more than one playoff game this spring. I can't imagine Noel bringing back more than a very good starting PG in the prime of his career. Maybe Okafor's value is slightly higher however it's close enough to really be based on the eye of the beholder.

It seems to me that this is a win-win swap that greatly improves both teams. Philly takes a major leap in perimeter offense, leadership, stability, and lineup balance while Atlanta has a young replacement for Horford who now seemingly would be wildly overpaid somewhere else (Boston?)
 

BigSoxFan

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Teague is a good player but he'll be 28 in a week and 29 when he becomes a FA next offseason. The Sixers will be excrement for the next 3-4 years so, while he is a good player, I'm not sure he's the kind of guy who they should commit to. He certainly could play a Lowry role on a better team but I still think Philly can do better than 1 year of Teague for Noel. If he were signed for 3-4 years, I'd probably feel differently.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Teague is a good player but he'll be 28 in a week and 29 when he becomes a FA next offseason. The Sixers will be excrement for the next 3-4 years so, while he is a good player, I'm not sure he's the kind of guy who they should commit to. He certainly could play a Lowry role on a better team but I still think Philly can do better than 1 year of Teague for Noel. If he were signed for 3-4 years, I'd probably feel differently.
Sure but you are trading Noel who also is under contract for only one year. There are a lot of "ifs" with a project like Philly hear but adding a quality PG, acquiring another quality young veteran for Okafor, a quick Simmons transition, and a healthy Embiid (obv the biggest ? here) suddenly changed the landscape by the All-Star break. They were 3-4 years away however I expect a full retool on the fly and if the moves click this has the potential to be a decent team very soon while still having the upside of future picks plus the Simmons/Embiid development. There is a scenario for a fast and furious leap here if Colangelo makes the right moves and gets a little lucky (Embiid) is all I'm saying. It's very interesting to me now and Colangelo has done this in the past.
 

BigSoxFan

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I certainly see the rationale but Noel is only 22. You could sign him up and still find a trade partner eventually. I do think the Sixers will be very aggressive these next couple of years. They have tons of assets to work with.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I certainly see the rationale but Noel is only 22. You could sign him up and still find a trade partner eventually. I do think the Sixers will be very aggressive these next couple of years. They have tons of assets to work with.
I feel the opposite and opine strongly that both healthy bigs will be moved by the draft later this month. Embiid's saving grace is that he hasn't yet established his value due to injury while Noel and Okafor have. Saric could be another one if the price is right.....he certainly has no ties or loyalty to him while Simmons will be playing his position for the foreseeable future.

Colangelo is going to get his players in here asap as this is surely the vision he told to Harris and the ownership grop. His dad did it his first week by bringing Ish back after Hinkie let him go.
 

Cellar-Door

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I certainly see the rationale but Noel is only 22. You could sign him up and still find a trade partner eventually. I do think the Sixers will be very aggressive these next couple of years. They have tons of assets to work with.
Sure, but he's also not very good at basketball right now, and they have 3 players who pretty clearly need to play C to be effective. Rotating Noel/Embiid/Okafor is going to be tough, because it means either someone gets too few minutes or has to play out of position or both.

The more I think about this trade the more I think PHI should do it if they have some indication from the agent that an extension is possible. Noel is all upside, but also still so raw he's unlikely to reach it before he gets a new contract if ever.

The thought on Teague is likely this:
He's a borderline All-Star PG in his prime, he'll immediately help develop the big men in Embiid and Okafor, and take some of the load off Simmons as well. He'll help the team become a respectable option in FA next year instead of a smoldering tire fire.
He also is attractive to different teams than Noel as an asset if they decide to re-trade him down the line.

If anything the one thing this rumor, coming after several weeks of aggressively shopping Noel tells us is that Noel's value around the league is not where Philly fans think it is. He isn't going to bring back a good young guard under contract for multiple years. He isn't bringing back a high 1st either.
 

BigSoxFan

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How do you know? We have very little information on these discussions. I don't think Noel for Teague is a horrible deal for Philly but it's not one that I would do given their respective ages. I think signing a guy like Clarkson makes more sense for Philly. Not as good but only 24 in a few days so there's plenty of room for growth there as Colangelo remakes the roster.
 

LondonSox

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Teague is an average pg. By any metric 10-15 th type pg in the league.
He's an unrestricted free agent next year and will need a big deal. He's past his physical prime and relies on his athleticism to make plays.

Meanwhile Noel is a restricted free agent who is eligible for the rookie max, is 22 improving and a good player today with upside at a position of scarcity. Which pg is not.

This is an awful trade idea. Terrible. Not least because Simmons means you can go for defense and shooting at pg and may be able to find a good player for less due to him. Instead overpay in trade to pay too much for a good but not star player who is decline.

People defending this trade are mad. Sorry baker I know you like to slam everything Hinkie and sixers, but by any metric this is a bad move. It's a shit trade to become mediocre. It's a horrible horrible idea that everyone from Toronto warned exactly about.
 

nighthob

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Meanwhile Noel is a restricted free agent who is eligible for the rookie max, is 22 improving and a good player today with upside at a position of scarcity. Which pg is not.
You may want to take another look around the NBA. Center is not a position of scarcity anymore and making deals involving them isn't easy unless they're potential superstars. Which Noel is not.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How do you know? We have very little information on these discussions. I don't think Noel for Teague is a horrible deal for Philly but it's not one that I would do given their respective ages. I think signing a guy like Clarkson makes more sense for Philly. Not as good but only 24 in a few days so there's plenty of room for growth there as Colangelo remakes the roster.
Ugh. Isn't the idea to move these guys for better players? What are the chances that Clarkson ever becomes as good an NBA player as Teague......if he does hit on that 5-10%(?) you still could have already had this player and all the immediate positives it creates in Teague.

London, I was never a fan of Hinkie and I'm glad he's out of the league but that is all in the past. Today the Sixers have assets and turning them into the best possible team to create a playoff team then a contender is what I'm focusing on moving forward. The team desperately needs backcourt stability as we saw what Ish Smith was even able to accomplish in allowing the team to get into some semblance of an offensive set......and that was Ish Freakin Smith. Having a Top 10-15th PG in the league immediately allows this team to function in an offensive system while being competitive each night at a critical position on the floor. I also feel you are overvaluing what Noel can fetch. Rome wasn't built in a day......Philly's may take a summer or two.
 

BigSoxFan

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Baker,

You can kindly fuck off with this "ugh" shit. If you don't agree, sweet, but your condescension is tiring.
 

Cellar-Door

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How do you know? We have very little information on these discussions. I don't think Noel for Teague is a horrible deal for Philly but it's not one that I would do given their respective ages. I think signing a guy like Clarkson makes more sense for Philly. Not as good but only 24 in a few days so there's plenty of room for growth there as Colangelo remakes the roster.
Why would Clarkson want to play in Philly? That's the problem, the FA class is weak and everyone has money, so a team like Philly which is a tire fire in a non-appealing market has little chance.

Teague is an average pg. By any metric 10-15 th type pg in the league.
He's an unrestricted free agent next year and will need a big deal. He's past his physical prime and relies on his athleticism to make plays.

Meanwhile Noel is a restricted free agent who is eligible for the rookie max, is 22 improving and a good player today with upside at a position of scarcity. Which pg is not.

This is an awful trade idea. Terrible. Not least because Simmons means you can go for defense and shooting at pg and may be able to find a good player for less due to him. Instead overpay in trade to pay too much for a good but not star player who is decline.

People defending this trade are mad. Sorry baker I know you like to slam everything Hinkie and sixers, but by any metric this is a bad move. It's a shit trade to become mediocre. It's a horrible horrible idea that everyone from Toronto warned exactly about.
He is not a good player today. He's a defense only backup at this point, his offensive game is near unplayable as a starter. It's also not at all clear he's improving, his offense might have taken a slight step forward this year, I guess? TOV went up, and his percentages look better, but it's mostly just that he got more dunks, his shooting of jumpshots and FTs actually regressed if anything. His defense also backslid some from terrific to just very good.

Listen I know PHI fans have a ton invested in Noel, and he still has a lot of potential, but right now he's not actually very good, he's basically 2013 Biyombo but playing more minutes.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
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Baker,

You can kindly fuck off with this "ugh" shit. If you don't agree, sweet, but your condescension is tiring.
You are correct and I apologize. I shouldn't have typed what I was thinking even though what I was thinking wasn't meant to sound like it did.
 

BigSoxFan

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You are correct and I apologize. I shouldn't have typed what I was thinking even though what I was thinking wasn't meant to sound like it did.
All good. I get we're all passionate on this board, which is good. I just don't see this as a cut-and-dry decision. But I don't think we're that far off. Teague is a nice player and Philly desperately needs to become more credible, especially since everybody and their aunt has money in FA. I just think that I would exhaust non-trade options first for a PG.

To answer the above question about why Clarkson would want to play in Philly, nobody "wants" to play there but not many teams need a PG so who knows how his FA will play out. I personally think he's a promising player but we obviously have no idea where his head is at. Not really a distributor but with Simmons that isn't as much of a need. He's an improving 3pt shooter and is already capable in that department.

A guy like Teague might treat a year in Philly like a one year jail sentence and then bolt immediately next summer. Does having one year of Teague really change the narrative of the Sixers? And if they sign him long-term, you're committing to a guy at big money well past his 30th bday at a position where there is an abundance of talent. He's a better player than Rondo but it's a similar issue.
 

Swedgin

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Jun 27, 2013
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He is not a good player today. He's a defense only backup at this point, his offensive game is near unplayable as a starter. It's also not at all clear he's improving, his offense might have taken a slight step forward this year, I guess? TOV went up, and his percentages look better, but it's mostly just that he got more dunks, his shooting of jumpshots and FTs actually regressed if anything. His defense also backslid some from terrific to just very good.

Listen I know PHI fans have a ton invested in Noel, and he still has a lot of potential, but right now he's not actually very good, he's basically 2013 Biyombo but playing more minutes.
This really understates Noel's ability now. Look at the per 36 numbers for Biyombo.
SeasonAgeMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%2P2PA2P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS
2012-132021862.65.7.4510.00.002.65.7.4511.22.3.5213.26.49.60.60.52.41.43.26.4
2013-142110723.04.8.6110.00.003.04.8.6111.53.0.5173.58.812.30.30.22.91.34.27.5


Versus Noel
SeasonAgeMPFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%2P2PA2P%FTFTAFT%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPFPTS
2014-152023114.710.2.4620.00.0.0004.710.2.4622.23.6.6092.96.69.52.02.12.22.33.211.6
2015-162119655.610.8.5210.00.0.5005.610.7.5212.54.2.5902.87.19.92.22.21.82.93.513.7



I also think you are overstating what you need out of 5 offensively. If a center can protect the rim, has the lateral quickness to switch the pick and roll and can be a reliable roll man, he is getting paid a lot of money. It is much easier to construct a roster around that guy, than an offensively gifted but defensive impaired center like Monroe (which may make them undervalued by the market and may explain Ainge's interest in both Monroe and Okafur). Also worth noting that Noel looked much better on the offensive end after the Sixers acquired a semi-competent PG. Guys like Noel do need a PG who can adequately run a pick and roll.[/table]
 
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Cellar-Door

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This really understates Noel's ability now. Look at the per 36 numbers for Biyombo.


Versus Noel


I also think you are overstating what you need out of 5 offensively. If a center can protect the rim, has the lateral quickness to switch the pick and roll and can be a reliable roll man, he is getting paid a lot of money. It is much easier to construct a roster around that guy, than an offensively gifted but defensive impaired center like Monroe (which may make them undervalued by the market and may explain Ainge's interest in both Monroe and Okafur). Also worth noting that Noel looked much better on the offensive end after the Sixers acquired a semi-competent PG. Guys like Noel do need a PG who can adequately run a pick and roll.[/table]
Not sure why you think that shows him as much better?
He got more shots because he was on one of the worst teams of NBA history while Biyombo was on a playoff team, he accordingly scored more points per 36, he wasn't anywhere near the rebounder that Biyombo was, and he didn't finish as well. Both miserable FT shooters. The two places Noel is better were passing and steals, Biyombo significantly more blocks, and less turnovers (probably a product of smaller offensive role).

All in all, it's a pretty good comp, very raw big men who have room to grow, but are miserable offensive players.

I like players in Noel's mode, and I think he has a real chance to be really good, but he's not there yet, and given his contract situation it's going to be tough for PHI to get a return for him that's much better than 1 year of Teague.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Not sure why you think that shows him as much better?
I like players in Noel's mode, and I think he has a real chance to be really good, but he's not there yet, and given his contract situation it's going to be tough for PHI to get a return for him that's much better than 1 year of Teague.
What is Noel's contract situation, and why is it impacting his trade value? He has two seasons of his rookie contract left at 4.3 and 5.8 million, and then becomes a restricted free agent. Do you think somebody's going to offer him the max or something? I suspect that's unlikely, barring a major step forward in the next two years. Either way, the idea of 2 years of cheap control and the right to match what the market offers isn't driving his price down.

Meanwhile, Jess Teague's an unrestricted free agent after next year. His value's made significantly lower by that. There's a very real chance that's a rental if you're the Sixers.
 

Cellar-Door

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What is Noel's contract situation, and why is it impacting his trade value? He has two seasons of his rookie contract left at 4.3 and 5.8 million, and then becomes a restricted free agent. Do you think somebody's going to offer him the max or something? I suspect that's unlikely, barring a major step forward in the next two years. Either way, the idea of 2 years of cheap control and the right to match what the market offers isn't driving his price down.

Meanwhile, Jess Teague's an unrestricted free agent after next year. His value's made significantly lower by that. There's a very real chance that's a rental if you're the Sixers.
He has one year at $4.4M, that $5.8M is the qualifying offer for his RFA year not a salary. So yes they have the right to match which is nice, but he only has 1 year left, and then he's going to get a big contract from someone based on potential. I think RFA control is overrated for non-max players, since you pretty much only get to match the top of the market, it only helps you keep a guy who really wants to leave.

Edit- basically all RFA lets you do is match what the stupidest team in the league with cap space is willing to pay somebody.
 

LondonSox

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You guys are under valuing Noel a lot. He's really really good defensively at 22 and very very efficient offensively without needing the ball.
I'm not shocked no one watches the sixers and defense stats etc are hardly exciting esp on a bad team. The team defensively was bad, really bad in front of him, the guards couldn't stop anyone, his played next to a bad Okafor a lot too. He was still amazing. He's exactly want I want for a center in the modern nba on a fast team.

But here you go. The article is a good read.
I'm waiting for ANY argument how Teague is more valuable than Noel. I got zero. And as for there are a lot of Noels around, I call Bullshit. He's doing exceptionally rare defensive things at 22.

Still, even with playing out of position, Noel has accumulated 251 steals and 242 blocks so far in his two-year career. Here’s an extensive list of players who accumulated at least 250 steals and 240 blocks in the first two seasons of their NBA careers, dating back to the 1973-74 season, when steals and blocks were first recorded:

  • David Robinson
  • Nerlens Noel
That is all.

Furthermore, Noel’s 4.0 defensive box plus/minus is 7th best in NBA history for players just two years into their career (minimum 2,000 minutes played), just barely behind David Robinson and ahead of guys like Tim Duncan, Sam Bowie, Andrei Kirilenko, and Draymond Green.


Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/06/03/dissecting-the-jeff-teague-for-nerlens-noel-rumor/#rwcR7GrST06oIZ2b.99
 

Devizier

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Noel is obviously worth a qualifying offer next season, but what if someone offers him a near-max contract in free agency? Setting aside the poison pill provisions, Omer Asik was signed for 15% of the cap a few years ago, and that's a good benchmark. Given the fact that he's younger and has more pedigree, I'd imagine that Noel might get up to 20% of the cap ($13M/year) from someone, particularly a borderline playoff contender. Is he worth enough to the Sixers to keep at that price? This is probably why they're exploring trades right now.
 
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