General Playoff Thread: The Long 2nd Season

jon abbey

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So wouldn't the team then be better off with a tough defensively minded role player taking up Love's roster spot?
Yes, I argued that this past offseason, no idea why they re-signed him except to stockpile assets. It doesn't matter much because the East is so weak and CLE can just outscore most teams without having to play too much D, but you can't play him at defensive 5 and beat the top West teams. Now that they have Frye, he's even a worse fit, I expect him to be traded this offseason.
 

jon abbey

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Warriors needed to cut that lead in to single digits. 12 might be too tough to overcome in Oklahoma, with Curry having a pretty terrible game.
Yeah, they're not getting anything from Curry or Green, it's amazing they're this close.
 

jon abbey

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OKC's role players are also all playing out of their minds, starting somewhere in the SA series. Adams (maybe not a role player), Roberson, Waiters, no one saw this coming.
 

jon abbey

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Second straight asskicking, will be interesting how they rebound at home.
 

Greenwell982

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As someone who watched an inordinate amount of Warriors games this year, it's pretty apparent that they aren't passing the eye test here. They look extremely tentative, aren't playing with any real flow and just are missing that swagger they had.
Really want to be proven wrong, but I don't see them winning three in a row now.
 

Three10toLeft

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I think some home cooking will do Draymond well. Curry is who I would be more concerned about.

Other than the show he put on in Q3 of G2, he hasn't been near his MVP level.
 

Kliq

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If I'm a GS fan I'm not happy about the effort given out by them, especially at the start of the game when they were sloppy with the ball and were not getting back on defense. I can live with not making shots and even losing, but to come out flat and lost almost every 50-50 ball, that is really disappointing. To be the defending champs and down 2-1 heading into a road game, I don't know, I would like to see them come out with a little more heart.
 

TheRooster

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Funny how size still matters in basketball. And selling out on Curry 's 3s is working out great. Better that he drive than shoot from deep.
 

jon abbey

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Funny how size still matters in basketball. And selling out on Curry 's 3s is working out great. Better that he drive than shoot from deep.
Even when he drives, they seem to always have guys contesting him at the rim.
 

ilol@u

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Whatever slim chance the Celtics had to sign Durant this offseason is basically 0% now. Durant is definitely staying in OKC.
 

nattysez

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I wish I could put my finger on why the Warriors are losing, but it seems like such a wide array of things, I'm not sure how it's fixable. It does seem like OKC is the more tenacious team -- they're getting to the 50-50 balls, they're denying everything at the rim, etc. The Warriors knew how important tonight's game was and still let it get away from them in the first half. One assumes that they'll play like men possessed on Thursday, but I'd assumed the same thing about tonight's game.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Donovan is coaching circles around kerr through 4 games
Of all the analysis in this thread, this is the one piece I agree with most. Someone else observed that Curry looks hurt and I have to agree. He simply doesn't have his normal swagger. And Green has been taken out of his game by his own actions though he showed something towards the end of tonight. Furthermore, huge credit to Westbrook, Durant, Adams, Ibaka, Roberson and even Waiters who have all elevated their games at the right time.

If OKC takes down the Warriors, the hot takes crowd (basically those with the low intellect and sports knowledge of a Skip Bayless...yeah, I am looking at you Hagios) will use terms like choke and "finesse" which all sound great to the mouth-breathers. However it discredits this OKC team which has peaked at the right time, beating two of the best teams in the NBA this season in rapid succession. That is the product of players upping their games and the coaches devising match-up advantages that aren't easily countered. That isn't a choke by Golden State -that is simply great basketball by OKC. Hell, I know the match-ups aren't great but I am not counting the Thunder out against the Cavs (and especially Toronto if The North somehow shocks the world) in the finals. Again, they have really stepped their game up and you have to respect it.

Finally, I know for most folks this series is over but I won't bet against Golden State here. They won all three regular season games against OKC so its possible. But they were both different teams back then.
 

Kliq

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The only real choking argument I could see for GS is that all of their star players have gone MIA during different points in the series, sometimes when it was absolutely critical. The series is far from over, and I expect GS to come out firing when they get home, although I expected them to take it up a notch tonight and they came out flat.

But OKC is the team that is peaking right now. I heard Fat Jonah Hill on ESPN the other day talking about watching the Cavs players watch OKC beat GS (he just happened to be at the same bar as them, what a coincidence) and he mentioned that the Cavs would like to play OKC because LeBron owns Durant and they crushed OKC this season. That seems like such a bad idea because clearly, OKC is very different than they were in the regular season and are playing the best basketball in their franchise's history. They have gone 7-2 in the last 9 games against San Antonio in Golden State, and some of those wins were dominant victories. Oklahoma City has proven themselves to be BY FAR the best team in basketball right now and the last thing I would want to be doing is looking forward to playing them in a series.
 

jablo1312

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I think this is the most pressing issue for the Warriors at this point. When this lineup is on the floor, they have nowhere to hide Curry defensively. Stick him on Westbrook, and he's toast. Stick him on Roberson (who, as has previously been said, is playing well above his established performance level) and the Thunder will run the Westbrook-Roberson PnR all day. The Warriors can't afford to have guys help off of any of KD, Waiter and Ibaka, as all 3 are established 3 point shooters. So you're in a borderline 2-on-2 situation with Curry as 1 of the 2 defenders...not going to end well often. It's tougher to double Westbrook now too b/c it appears that Roberson has at least realized he just needs to cut to the hoop to facilitate the offense.

Offensively, if Curry doesn't have it going, then the Dubs are obviously going to look much worse. It's one thing if Steph is missing his own shots coming off of screens or off the dribble, but the number of turnovers tonight was just stunning. It's like he forgot what to do with the basketball when given space inside of the arc. Whatever it is, Kerr need to look at more way to move Curry off ball and use the gravity of his presence to create more room for Thompson PnR's with Green, Bogut, and Iguodala.

I think Ezeli needs to play more if Bogut can't find ways to contribute more/be less hurt. The offensive rebounding situation is starting to get out of control imo. Draymond is a great defender but he's not a rim protector, and he's not going to single-handedly out-rebound Ibaka and Adams. We know at this point you're not going to get a ton of Iggy/Barnes help on the boards either, but I don't think they can get away with giving the Thunder 15 offensive boards.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Donovan is coaching circles around kerr through 4 games
I don't think Donovan is coaching rings around Kerr. It's just that for the first time in two years, GSW has matchup problems and they could be unsolvable. When GSW goes to its "death lineup,", typically the other team doesn't have 1 - much less 2 - 6'11" players who can score, defend on the perimeter, and protect the rim. I mean the Cs gave GSW fits with IT, Bradley, Smart, Crowder, and a random big. Imagine if IT was 6'5" and Crowder was 6'11" plus Jerakbo could actually protect against the rim.

I think GSW's biggest problem is on the defensive end. I think OKC shot something like 70% when the "death lineup" was on the floor in Game 3 and from what I watched in Game 4, I would be surprised if the % was much under that. Without a rim protector, RW and KD are driving to the basket with impunity and either getting easy shots (for themselves or for their teammates) or going to the foul line.
 

Kliq

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Donovan deserves a lot of credit for two developments. The first is that he beat San Antonio going big with Adams and Kanter and then in the next round he is up 3-1 on Golden State going small. He is beating the two best teams in basketball at their own game, in back-to-back rounds. Credit the front office for building that kind of flexibility and the players, especially guys like Adams and Roberson, who have stepped it up in the playoffs.

The second thing he deserves credit for is being the coach that manages to get the most out of Dion Waiters. He has him playing good defense, catch-and-shooting threes and moving the ball, three things he struggled with earlier in his career.
 

BaseballJones

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I wish I could put my finger on why the Warriors are losing, but it seems like such a wide array of things, I'm not sure how it's fixable. It does seem like OKC is the more tenacious team -- they're getting to the 50-50 balls, they're denying everything at the rim, etc. The Warriors knew how important tonight's game was and still let it get away from them in the first half. One assumes that they'll play like men possessed on Thursday, but I'd assumed the same thing about tonight's game.
Role players typically play better at home, so it's not surprising that guys like Waiters are playing well in OKC. I think Golden State wins game 5 and then if they get to game 7, I like their chances at home there as well.

Game 6 is it. Can Golden State win a game in OKC? Right now it's not looking good for them to be able to pull it off. If OKC beats them and then goes on to beat Cleveland in the championship series, that will culminate one of the greatest postseason runs in NBA history, IMO.
 

coremiller

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I think this is the most pressing issue for the Warriors at this point. When this lineup is on the floor, they have nowhere to hide Curry defensively. Stick him on Westbrook, and he's toast. Stick him on Roberson (who, as has previously been said, is playing well above his established performance level) and the Thunder will run the Westbrook-Roberson PnR all day. The Warriors can't afford to have guys help off of any of KD, Waiter and Ibaka, as all 3 are established 3 point shooters. So you're in a borderline 2-on-2 situation with Curry as 1 of the 2 defenders...not going to end well often. It's tougher to double Westbrook now too b/c it appears that Roberson has at least realized he just needs to cut to the hoop to facilitate the offense.

Offensively, if Curry doesn't have it going, then the Dubs are obviously going to look much worse. It's one thing if Steph is missing his own shots coming off of screens or off the dribble, but the number of turnovers tonight was just stunning. It's like he forgot what to do with the basketball when given space inside of the arc. Whatever it is, Kerr need to look at more way to move Curry off ball and use the gravity of his presence to create more room for Thompson PnR's with Green, Bogut, and Iguodala.

I think Ezeli needs to play more if Bogut can't find ways to contribute more/be less hurt. The offensive rebounding situation is starting to get out of control imo. Draymond is a great defender but he's not a rim protector, and he's not going to single-handedly out-rebound Ibaka and Adams. We know at this point you're not going to get a ton of Iggy/Barnes help on the boards either, but I don't think they can get away with giving the Thunder 15 offensive boards.
Part of the problem with hiding Curry defensively last night was that Klay got in early foul trouble. That meant they had to move Klay off Westbrook and hide him to keep him on the court for his offense, which meant Curry had to guard Westbrook. Curry can't keep up with Westbrook (no one can), and that wore Curry down in the second half, causing his offense to suffer.

But defense was not really the Warriors' issue last night. OKC only shot 43%. GSW's problems were turnovers, rebounding, fouls, and Curry's health.
 

DJnVa

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Finally, I know for most folks this series is over but I won't bet against Golden State here. They won all three regular season games against OKC so its possible. But they were both different teams back then.
Well, it's 3-1, I'd bet against them, but that doesn't mean the same as thinking the series is over. Whatever is ailing Draymond and Curry needs to get fixed in a hurry and I'd imagine they come out flying Thursday night. If they don't, and game 5 is a grind, even if the Warriors win it, I think OKC ends it in 6. But if GS gets their swagger back tomorrow night, then Saturday is going to be fun.
 

Hagios

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If OKC takes down the Warriors, the hot takes crowd (basically those with the low intellect and sports knowledge of a Skip Bayless...yeah, I am looking at you Hagios) will use terms like choke and "finesse" which all sound great to the mouth-breathers. However it discredits this OKC team which has peaked at the right time, beating two of the best teams in the NBA this season in rapid succession.
Yes OKC is a great team that is peaking at the right time, but when the 72 win Bulls went into the playoffs no other team could realistically expect to peak and beat them. They were tough team and a defensive nightmare for other opponents. The 95-96 Bulls only lost 3 games all playoffs.

The only way you can salvage the theory that Golden State is an historically great team is to put it all on Curry's ankle. Which is absolutely a big factor. It may even be the only factor. But given the way the playoffs opened up for them last year, I don't think you can so easily write off the theory that perhaps, yes, GS is a finesse team and defense wins championships. Or have you completely discarded that as a possibility?
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yes OKC is a great team that is peaking at the right time, but when the 72 win Bulls went into the playoffs no other team could realistically expect to peak and beat them. They were tough team and a defensive nightmare for other opponents. The 95-96 Bulls only lost 3 games all playoffs.

The only way you can salvage the theory that Golden State is an historically great team is to put it all on Curry's ankle. Which is absolutely a big factor. It may even be the only factor. But given the way the playoffs opened up for them last year, I don't think you can so easily write off the theory that perhaps, yes, GS is a finesse team and defense wins championships. Or have you completely discarded that as a possibility?
I mean, they're a "finesse" team inasmuch as they've got some incredibly skilled offensive players, but they're a very good defensive team as well. They finished the regular season in a virtual tie (with the Celtics, Jazz and Clippers) for third overall in Adjusted Defensive Rating. Last year they finished first. Green, Bogut and Klay are elite defenders. Ezeli and Iguodala are very good.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes OKC is a great team that is peaking at the right time, but when the 72 win Bulls went into the playoffs no other team could realistically expect to peak and beat them. They were tough team and a defensive nightmare for other opponents. The 95-96 Bulls only lost 3 games all playoffs.

The only way you can salvage the theory that Golden State is an historically great team is to put it all on Curry's ankle. Which is absolutely a big factor. It may even be the only factor. But given the way the playoffs opened up for them last year, I don't think you can so easily write off the theory that perhaps, yes, GS is a finesse team and defense wins championships. Or have you completely discarded that as a possibility?
I know I didn't believe in Golden State last season and while it's true that the path opened up nicely for them last year they, for lack of better phrase, simply got the job done. This postseason is playing out like I thought last one was going to......how much of that is Curry being injured and how much is Donovan/OKC's defensive coaches schemes is what the debate really should be about. Even a healthy Curry would have trouble against the attention to detail from OKC's off the ball defenders who are switching and getting physical with Curry in denying him the ball. Again, how much so probably is a direct result of Curry not being fully healthy but it's difficult to know how much. Either way, Donovan is killing it in this series.......his team is more focused, determined, and prepared to win playoff games than Kerr's.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Yes OKC is a great team that is peaking at the right time, but when the 72 win Bulls went into the playoffs no other team could realistically expect to peak and beat them. They were tough team and a defensive nightmare for other opponents. The 95-96 Bulls only lost 3 games all playoffs.

The only way you can salvage the theory that Golden State is an historically great team is to put it all on Curry's ankle. Which is absolutely a big factor. It may even be the only factor. But given the way the playoffs opened up for them last year, I don't think you can so easily write off the theory that perhaps, yes, GS is a finesse team and defense wins championships. Or have you completely discarded that as a possibility?
How does that idea square with the fact that, by pretty much every available measure, Golden State's defense was better than OKC's this year and that Golden State has the best rated defense of any team left in the playoffs?
 

coremiller

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Yes OKC is a great team that is peaking at the right time, but when the 72 win Bulls went into the playoffs no other team could realistically expect to peak and beat them. They were tough team and a defensive nightmare for other opponents. The 95-96 Bulls only lost 3 games all playoffs.

The only way you can salvage the theory that Golden State is an historically great team is to put it all on Curry's ankle. Which is absolutely a big factor. It may even be the only factor. But given the way the playoffs opened up for them last year, I don't think you can so easily write off the theory that perhaps, yes, GS is a finesse team and defense wins championships. Or have you completely discarded that as a possibility?
Yes, I'm comfortable writing off the theory that GS is a soft, finesse team that can't play defense.

GSW's problems in this series aren't defense anyway. In Games 1 and 4, OKC won despite shooting 43.8% and 43.3%. GSW's problems are rebounding and turnovers, not an inability to get stops.

And OKC's advantage in this series isn't toughness or strength/power, it's length and speed. OKC has beaten GSW by going small and running them off the court, which I never would have believed could happen. The Adams/Kanter two-big lineup that dominated the Spurs has barely played in this series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, I'm comfortable writing off the theory that GS is a soft, finesse team that can't play defense.

GSW's problems in this series aren't defense anyway. In Games 1 and 4, OKC won despite shooting 43.8% and 43.3%. GSW's problems are rebounding and turnovers, not an inability to get stops.

And OKC's advantage in this series isn't toughness or strength/power, it's length and speed. OKC has beaten GSW by going small and running them off the court, which I never would have believed could happen. The Adams/Kanter two-big lineup that dominated the Spurs has barely played in this series.
I wouldn't discount the toughness factor. There were two scenarios last night where there was a loose ball which had several Warriors reaching and lunging for the ball while Westbrook dove on the floor to gain possession on one occasion and deflect the ball out to a teammate on another while the Golden State players were standing there flat-footed in a daze. One team is watching things happen while the other is making things happen. Call it what you want.....toughness, grit, determination.....whatever it is one team has had it while the other hasn't and some do call that being soft.
 

tbrep

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I think the way the games are officiated going forward will be huge. Not saying OKC won because of favourable officiating (that's not true - they thoroughly outplayed the Warriors) but if the refs don't allow as much contact, it becomes a LOT harder to deny Curry space off the ball.
 

coremiller

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I wouldn't discount the toughness factor. There were two scenarios last night where there was a loose ball which had several Warriors reaching and lunging for the ball while Westbrook dove on the floor to gain possession on one occasion and deflect the ball out to a teammate on another while the Golden State players were standing there flat-footed in a daze. One team is watching things happen while the other is making things happen. Call it what you want.....toughness, grit, determination.....whatever it is one team has had it while the other hasn't and some do call that being soft.
My default view is that toughness/grit/determination are way overrated as explanations of sports outcomes. There are cases where that happens, but they are much rarer than the frequency with which people resort to silly cliches about psychological narratives. Westbrook is the quickest, fastest player in the league, why should we be surprised that he gets to loose balls before anyone else does?
 

HomeRunBaker

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My default view is that toughness/grit/determination are way overrated as explanations of sports outcomes. There are cases where that happens, but they are much rarer than the frequency with which people resort to silly cliches about psychological narratives. Westbrook is the quickest, fastest player in the league, why should we be surprised that he gets to loose balls before anyone else does?
Because he is the only one diving on the floor to get it while the others are watching him? Trying not to overthink it here. On these plays he clearly outworked the Warriors surrounding him.....that isn't a cliché.
 

coremiller

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That's exactly my point -- Westrbrook's ability to react and move more quickly than anyone else is an athletic skill, not a reflection of some psychological trait.

Psychology, competitiveness, and toughness matter a lot, but mostly in terms of willingness to work hard at preparation when the bright lights aren't on. The idea that the Thunder are "outworking" the Warriors because they "want it more" is total nonsense. They're just longer and faster and the Warriors haven't figured out how to tactically negate those advantages (if they can). But if they do, it will because the Warriors made some smart adjustments and figured out how to play their game, and not because they "toughened up" or "matched the Thunder's desire" or some psychological BS cliche.
 

AMS25

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How does that idea square with the fact that, by pretty much every available measure, Golden State's defense was better than OKC's this year and that Golden State has the best rated defense of any team left in the playoffs?
I think that people have to stop comparing OKC's regular season stats with those of Golden State. For Donavan, the regular season was about experimentation. He had to re-integrate Durant (coming off an injury) into a lineup full of players he'd never played with before (Waiters, Kanter, Singler, DJ Augustin, etc.). He tried all sorts of different combinations out there; some worked, some didn't. From the Lee Jenkins article on SI.com (sorry my attempt to post a link was unsuccessful):

"They had a new coach, Billy Donovan, who experimented with lineups, minute allotments, pick-and-roll coverages. He went small, with Durant at power forward and Ibaka at center, and then big, with 6' 11" Enes Kanter alongside 7-foot Steven Adams. He played Durant and Westbrook together the entire first quarter, allowing the bench more freedom in the second, but that backfired so he staggered his stars’ court time. He stopped blitzing every ballhandler, a Thunder trademark, to better protect the three-point line. He emphasized weakside action, an OKC sore spot, to grease movement."

"'I needed to take risks,' Donovan says. 'I needed to get answers. Sometimes you have to throw stuff out there and see whether it’s a good idea or isn’t. I told the guys there would be some rocky roads.' They started 7–6. They lost eight of 12 after the All-Star break. At Florida, Donovan would have said he was playing for March. In Oklahoma City it was for May. Durant required some late-night reassurances, via text, from Presti and assistant GM Troy Weaver: Stay with this, they urged. Execs compared Donovan with a masseur, working out long-lasting knots, a process both painful and productive."

KD wasn't the only one getting impatient; Thunder fans complained incessantly about the lineups, Kyle Singler, Randy Foye, Kyle Singler, Randy Foye, and the defense. In any case, it's now the playoffs, and just like there was "Playoff Tito" there is "Playoff Donavan."
 

BigSoxFan

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Being willing to dive on the floor has nothing to do with athletic ability. Having a quicker reaction to a loose ball certainly does but if one team is consistently willing to go to the floor for loose balls, that is an indication to me of toughness, grit, determination or whatever other word people want to use.

I don't buy the Warriors are finesse argument but I do think that they are not matching OKC's intensity, which can be troublesome for such an emotional sport.