Early season bullpen thread

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
I do like that idea of sending Owens down today and bringing up Marco Hernandez (or someone else, if appropriate) and then swapping that guy out in time for Tuesday's game when they need the 5th starter again. Heck, if Price and Buchholz pitch like they can and rest the 'pen, do a bullpen game, letting Hembree, Ross, and Barnes each go 2-3 innings!
Hernandez can't be recalled until 5/12 without being a DL-list countermove.

Which means the only position players available today without a 40-man countermove are Deven Marrero, Swihart, Castillo, Coyle, and Brentz. None of them has an OPS over .600 in AAA at the moment.

Edwin Escobar is now a Diamondback because someone wanted Cuevas in Boston for that one game, but whatever.

Pick your poison, I guess.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I'm assuming O'Sullivan doesn't have any options, otherwise I don't see why they wouldn't go with him.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
I'm assuming O'Sullivan doesn't have any options, otherwise I don't see why they wouldn't go with him.
He's not on the 40-man roster. There are five possible options who are.

And he was terrible in those commercials with Pedroia.

I vote no.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,228
Portland
I'm assuming O'Sullivan doesn't have any options, otherwise I don't see why they wouldn't go with him.
I see him as more of an emergency starter. He's had a nice start in AAA but has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
Owens has been ugly, but I'd honestly rather him over that guy.
Cuevas is also a pseudo-prospect who I'd put above O'Sullivan.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 7, 2015
318
Kinda scary that we've had 6 bullpen games already (starts with 4IP by the starter or less), leading to a 157.1ip by our starters vs. 252 innings played. That's "good" enough for 9th most in the bigs - boy have we been lucky with how they've carried the team at time.
 

strek1

Run, Forrest, run!
SoSH Member
Jun 13, 2006
31,882
Hartford area
Kinda scary that we've had 6 bullpen games already (starts with 4IP by the starter or less), leading to a 157.1ip by our starters vs. 252 innings played. That's "good" enough for 9th most in the bigs - boy have we been lucky with how they've carried the team at time.
And they' have been lucky in the way their appearances have played out. Look at last night with the Mookie- Hanigan Double play when Barnes was on the mound. Sometimes when it's "your" year stuff like that happens. So let's hope it's an early sign that it will be the Sox year.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,270
Hernandez can't be recalled until 5/12 without being a DL-list countermove.

Which means the only position players available today without a 40-man countermove are Deven Marrero, Swihart, Castillo, Coyle, and Brentz. None of them has an OPS over .600 in AAA at the moment.

Edwin Escobar is now a Diamondback because someone wanted Cuevas in Boston for that one game, but whatever.

Pick your poison, I guess.
Thanks for Hernandez info. The Escobar scenario isn't relevant as we wouldn't lose any of those players who have options available. As far as a players OPS over 3 weeks of baseball I'm not too concerned about that when the player up would at most get one spot-start to give a regular a day off following a night game while possibly providing an extra positional body in late game strategy in others.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,095
Pittsboro NC

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,095
Pittsboro NC
My guess is O'Sullivan is up just as long-man bullpen depth for a day or two, given the extra work logged by the 'pen last night. Otherwise why bring him up now for a start in four days? Someone else will likely get that next would-have-been-Owens start.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Brian Johnson is about as ready as Owens. O'Sullivan makes the most sense and is pitching the best of the available options and has a major league track record, even if it is a sucky one. Him making a start or two can't provide much worse value than Owens did.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,561
Maybe... though his 1IP/2R/3BB/1K line from Wednesday night isn't too inspiring.
If the reason you're sending Owens down is that he walks too many people, both Elias and Johnson have higher walk rates and worse K/BB ratios in Pawtucket this year than Owens did. O'Sullivan is the only Paw Sox starter with considerably better numbers, and he's never been particularly good in the majors.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2007
1,095
Pittsboro NC
Brian Johnson is about as ready as Owens. O'Sullivan makes the most sense and is pitching the best of the available options and has a major league track record, even if it is a sucky one. Him making a start or two can't provide much worse value than Owens did.
I'm agnostic about who takes the last one or two starts before EdRod is ready to come back.
I'm just thinking about what makes sense with the O'Sullivan move. Seems like if you're sending down a starting pitcher a night after your bullpen had to throw 6 innings, you wouldn't prioritize bringing up the guy who will be starting in four days. Rather, you would prioritize bringing up someone who can soak up some innings in case there's another Disaster Start in the next few days. O'Sullivan last pitched on Sunday, so he's good to go in that regard. Maybe if he doesn't end up getting used you keep him around for that next start. But if you end up needing to use him, it's no problem to send him back down and bring up Johnson (or someone else) to take the start.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I'm agnostic about who takes the last one or two starts before EdRod is ready to come back.
I'm just thinking about what makes sense with the O'Sullivan move. Seems like if you're sending down a starting pitcher a night after your bullpen had to throw 6 innings, you wouldn't prioritize bringing up the guy who will be starting in four days. Rather, you would prioritize bringing up someone who can soak up some innings in case there's another Disaster Start in the next few days. O'Sullivan last pitched on Sunday, so he's good to go in that regard. Maybe if he doesn't end up getting used you keep him around for that next start. But if you end up needing to use him, it's no problem to send him back down and bring up Johnson (or someone else) to take the start.
That's usually always the case. If there is a disaster start, I imagine Cuevas would get the nod over Brian Johnson though. He's had 14bb in 21 innings and is recovering from an injury. In his last 3 starts, 11.2 ip, he has walked 11 batters. Elias has been just as bad. I'm not sure who the other option was. Owens, Cuevas, Johnson, O'Sullivan, Elias and?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
That's usually always the case. If there is a disaster start, I imagine Cuevas would get the nod over Brian Johnson though. He's had 14bb in 21 innings and is recovering from an injury. In his last 3 starts, 11.2 ip, he has walked 11 batters. Elias has been just as bad. I'm not sure who the other option was. Owens, Cuevas, Johnson, O'Sullivan, Elias and?
The last of the five other options beyond O'Sullivan I was thinking about was strictly a bullpen option for the next few games, since Noe Ramirez also could have been called up today.

Moot point FTW. As usual. The Sox FO has spent surprisingly little time this season reading SoSH so that they can do what I think they should!
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
5,145
O'Sullivan's AAA line this year looks pretty good- any chance he was a Brian Bannister reclamation project?
 

iayork

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 6, 2006
639
O'Sullivan's AAA line this year looks pretty good- any chance he was a Brian Bannister reclamation project?
Alex Speier says in three tweets:

Red Sox callup Sean O'Sullivan has spent parts of 8 years in AAA, but he's increased his K rate roughly 40% over career AAA level in 2016

O'Sullivan said an element of the credit for increased strikeout rate belongs to Brian Bannister, who helped him break down ...

...the strike zone quadrants where his pitches had been most effective and most vulnerable.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,270
Brian Johnson is about as ready as Owens. O'Sullivan makes the most sense and is pitching the best of the available options and has a major league track record, even if it is a sucky one. Him making a start or two can't provide much worse value than Owens did.
They are all crap shoots at this point however the way I read this is that O'Sully is up as a mop-up innings eater until he's used up and a fresh arm will be called up for the start in Owens place. It doesn't make sense otherwise to call up your starter 4 days in advance as it is a wasted roster spot over the weekend.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Hernandez can't be recalled until 5/12 without being a DL-list countermove.

Which means the only position players available today without a 40-man countermove are Deven Marrero, Swihart, Castillo, Coyle, and Brentz. None of them has an OPS over .600 in AAA at the moment.

Edwin Escobar is now a Diamondback because someone wanted Cuevas in Boston for that one game, but whatever.

Pick your poison, I guess.
Light sent down yesterday, Hernandez called up.

Don't ask me, I read Buzzkill's post and nodded my head in agreement.
 

phenweigh

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 8, 2005
1,379
Brewster, MA
Light sent down yesterday, Hernandez called up.
I read your post and thought, I don't recall Pat Light getting called up after he was sent down. ESPN transactions agree that Light was sent down April 30 and yesterday, but don't list him as being called up in between. Sox Prospects doesn't list yesterday's Light/Hernandez transactions. Something is amiss.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
I don't see anything on SoxProspects about Light-for-Hernandez.

I usually trust them more than ESPN about the Sox minor leaguers, but I could be wrong. I don't see how the Sox could get around the 10-day duration requirement for Hernandez's option assignment, unless there's been a rule change. It's certainly possible there was.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
I don't get Kimbrel. Don't think I'm alone in being on the edge whenever he comes into a save situation. So far he doesn't seem to be the lights-out closer that his reputation promises.

I'm curious if anyone here has paid attention to him over the years. Is he pitching any differently? Does he take 1/4 of a season to fall into a routine? Is his pitch selection the same as it's always been?

I can't stand a closer who throws balls (unless they're swing-and-miss balls) and some of his pitches are definitely waste - in non-waste situations.. Oftentimes he seems to yank the ball and I'm surprised he hasn't hit more LHH.

There are some premium closers who (despite blowing a few saves) you know are good for the ninth. Guys who never seem to fall behind in the count and make every pitch a statement pitch. Miller, Jansen, Rondon, (I assume Chapman), etc.

On the other hand, the stats support Kimbrel (despite my eyes). He has an infinitesimal WHIP (0.88) despite 8 walks in 16 innings (with today, 17). Comparable relievers are:

Davis: 0.69 WHIP with 5 walks
Rodney: 0.93 WHIP with 7 walks
Robertson: 0.95 WHIP with 6 walks
Phelps: 0.95 WHIP with 9 walks

So I guess there are better stats to look at (BB/9; K/9; K/BB; HR/9...)

Sometimes I miss 2013 Koji.
 

Maximus

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
5,774
How could you not?

Kimbrel is one of the best. But he's still an adventure.

Because 2013 Koji was better than the best. With his 88-mph fastball, he was transcendent.
Kimbrel with his wildness can be terrifying. 2013 Koji was incredibly efficient.
 

alwyn96

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 24, 2005
1,351
Not super relevant, but is Brandon Workman even remotely close to doing anything? I know he had TJS but he doesn't seem to have thrown a ball in anger since 2014. Seems like a longer than usual recovery.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,872
Maine
Not super relevant, but is Brandon Workman even remotely close to doing anything? I know he had TJS but he doesn't seem to have thrown a ball in anger since 2014. Seems like a longer than usual recovery.
His surgery was on June 15, 2015. Twelve months is the typical recovery time. Since spring training, they've said he's not likely to be back until after the All Star game.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,494
Not here
Kimbrel with his wildness can be terrifying. 2013 Koji was incredibly efficient.
I think Koji 2013 is something like Wakefield 1995, a little bit of magic the universe hands you just so you know it's still the boss.

In July, August, and September, he pitched in 37 games, a total of 40.1 innings, and allowed one earned run. He averaged less than thirteen pitches per inning. He walked two batters. It was one of the most insane things we'll ever see.
 

alwyn96

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 24, 2005
1,351
His surgery was on June 15, 2015. Twelve months is the typical recovery time. Since spring training, they've said he's not likely to be back until after the All Star game.
Ah, thanks. I had thought his surgery was Winter 2014 for some reason.

Appropo of nothing, Kyle Martin is having a good Spring in AAA. 3.50 ERA (1.15 FIP), 11.0 k/9 (31% k%), 1.0 bb/9. He's been striking guys out at a pretty good clip and has for years, and he's gotten off to a pretty good start. Not on the 40-man, but if he keeps this up I bet we see him this year. Today's game notwithstanding, there hasn't been much to complain about the bullpen's performance, though.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
16,851
From Abraham in the Glob today:
"Something is fishy with Carson Smith. He was activated off the disabled list on May 3 and so far has appeared in only three games, facing 11 batters and throwing 48 pitches.
Farrell denied there is any physical issue, as did Smith. But the Sox are clearly being extraordinarily careful with the 26-year-old righthander. Smith strained a flexor muscle in spring training and that injury is often a precursor to a more serious elbow problem. It’s something to keep an eye on."
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,453
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
From Abraham in the Glob today:
"Something is fishy with Carson Smith. He was activated off the disabled list on May 3 and so far has appeared in only three games, facing 11 batters and throwing 48 pitches.
Farrell denied there is any physical issue, as did Smith. But the Sox are clearly being extraordinarily careful with the 26-year-old righthander. Smith strained a flexor muscle in spring training and that injury is often a precursor to a more serious elbow problem. It’s something to keep an eye on."

Interesting .. I was thinking the same thing in yesterday's game when Farrell went Koji/Kimbrell for the 8th/9th - despite Kimbrell pitching 4 days in a row, It seemed an obvious time to use Smith in the 8th and Koji in the 9th.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,658
Last night was Kimbrel's third game in a row.

In two games (Apr 11 vs Bal; Apr 24 vs Hou), he put up this line: 2.0 ip, 3 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 4 k, 22.50 era, 2.50 whip, 18.0 k/9, 1 loss, 0-1 saves

In all the other games (16 total), he's put up this line: 15.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 6 bb, 24 k, 0.00 era, 0.60 whip, 14.4 k/9, 10-10 saves

So besides the two blips, he's been insanely good.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 7, 2015
318
Interesting .. I was thinking the same thing in yesterday's game when Farrell went Koji/Kimbrell for the 8th/9th - despite Kimbrell pitching 4 days in a row, It seemed an obvious time to use Smith in the 8th and Koji in the 9th.
Or they might have a very specific plan for him to rebuild the strength/confidence in his arm, so he can be most effective down the stretch - and not right now when it seems like other parts of the pen are what need to shake out. He's thrown 9, 27 and 12 pitches in his three games - so it doesn't seem like he's on some cap, either. Not to mention: he's under control through 2020, and has proven to be an elite bullpen arm - why rush him at all? Just for the optics?
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,542
From Abraham in the Glob today:
"Something is fishy with Carson Smith. He was activated off the disabled list on May 3 and so far has appeared in only three games, facing 11 batters and throwing 48 pitches.
Farrell denied there is any physical issue, as did Smith. But the Sox are clearly being extraordinarily careful with the 26-year-old righthander. Smith strained a flexor muscle in spring training and that injury is often a precursor to a more serious elbow problem. It’s something to keep an eye on."
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/05/17/carson-smith-still-managing-elbow-injury-which-has-limited-ability-to-recover-between-outings/

KANSAS CITY — Red Sox right-hander Carson Smith has pitched just three times since being activated two weeks ago, and it’s because he’s still feeling the effects of a spring training elbow injury.
The Red Sox acquired Smith this winter to bring his wipeout slider to the late innings, but he has pitched only 2 2/3 scoreless innings since debuting on May 3. He has gone six and five days, respectively, between appearances, which he attributes in part to his recovery time not being where it should be
“Sometimes I feel great the next day,” he told WEEI.com. “Sometimes there may be a hint of something there. They told me that’s what happens with these types of injuries, so we’re just taking it day by day.”
[snip]
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Two things stand out in that article:

The way I bounce back is obviously one way to gauge that. We’re working it, working me in there as often as they can, and I’m getting sharper every time.
Bounce back, meaning pain? Or muscle fatigue?

“Obviously I’m still trying to . . . I’m not in midseason form right now,” he said. “I had a shortened spring training as far as outings, but I feel pretty comfortable out there. I’m not the guy that needs to touch the ball every other day to stay sharp, so right now I’m comfortable with the outings I’m getting and see where it goes from here.
"...comfortable with the outings I'm getting.." Again, is he talking about slowly working his way into game shape (I don't think so), or is he talking about an unhealed strain (I do think so).

The flexor mass muscles are also known as the lateral and medial epicondyle muscles. This muscle mass extends from the elbow down the forearm to ligaments and tendons at the wrist joint. The medial and lateral epicondyle muscles enable you to flex your arm at the elbow, as well as rotate, flex and pronate your wrist. Torn flexor mass muscles are not that common in adults, according to the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery at the University of Iowa College of Medicine. However, this injury is sometimes seen in baseball pitchers and other athletes.
Kyle Gibson was diagnosed with a flexor muscle strain in 2011 and ended up with Tommy John.

Anthony Slama went down with the same injury in 2011 and avoided surgery.

JJ Putz has some interestingly relevant attributes (sorry for the lengthy selection of quotes):

March 17, 2007, from USA Today:

Seattle Mariners closer J.J. Putz has a mild right elbow strain, and the team should have him back soon...
...Tests showed that the injury was a strain and nothing more serious...
...The diagnosis, made in Seattle by Dr. E. Edward Khalfayan, was a “mild flexor pronator strain.”

...Trainer Rick Griffin described the injury as common among pitchers in spring training and that two or three Mariners have already had the condition and recovered from it.
March 26, 2007, from The Seattle Times:

… the faces of Mariners officials were tense and the answers terse Thursday, when Putz went out for his bullpen session that initially seemed an unqualified success. He threw well and felt great — until 30 minutes after he finished. That’s when his elbow tightened. Again.

“It was kind of like an achy stiffness,” Putz explained Friday before hustling off to his MRI. “They made it sound like that’s a good thing, just because that it’s showing it’s getting fatigued and stressed. As the night went on and this morning, it’s kind of gone away, so that’s good.”
June 29, 2013 (years later)

After missing seven weeks with a right elbow injury, J.J. Putz was activated from the disabled list this afternoon. Putz originally appeared bound for surgery due to a strained flexor pronator and nerve irritation, but he didn’t have any setbacks after resuming his throwing program and made it through four minor league rehab appearances
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Kimbrel so far this year:

21 Appearances
12 Clean (57%)
2 w/ Inherited Runners Scoring + 2 With Runs Allowed (19%)

That's good, right?

Koji so far this year:

21 Appearances
8 clean (38%)
1 Inherited Runner...and Scored + 3 with Runs Allowed (19%)

That's also good, right?

I really don't know.

Some comps:

Britton

20 Appearances
13 Clean (65%)
1 Inherited Runner scored + 3 with Runs Allowed (20%)

Melancon:

24 Appearances
7 clean (29%)
5 with Runs Allowed (20%)

Miller:

20 Appearances
11 Clean (55%)
1 Inherited Runner Scored + 3 with Runs Allowed (20%)
 

alwyn96

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 24, 2005
1,351
Tommy Layne LOOGY watch:
2015
v RHB 322/433/517
v LHB 148/248/170

2016
v RHB 261/346/391
v LHB 276/400/414

A lot of the damage against Layne has been in his last three appearances, where he's really thrown some gasoline on the fire. Hopefully he can get it back together.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,658
Kimbrel so far this year:

21 Appearances
12 Clean (57%)
2 w/ Inherited Runners Scoring + 2 With Runs Allowed (19%)

That's good, right?

Koji so far this year:

21 Appearances
8 clean (38%)
1 Inherited Runner...and Scored + 3 with Runs Allowed (19%)

That's also good, right?

I really don't know.

Some comps:

Britton

20 Appearances
13 Clean (65%)
1 Inherited Runner scored + 3 with Runs Allowed (20%)

Melancon:

24 Appearances
7 clean (29%)
5 with Runs Allowed (20%)

Miller:

20 Appearances
11 Clean (55%)
1 Inherited Runner Scored + 3 with Runs Allowed (20%)
Not that these three appearances don't count, because obviously they do. But Kimbrel has been really good in all but 3 of his 22 appearances.

Apr 11, Apr 24, May 28 - 3.1 ip, 7 h, 6 r, 6 er, 2 bb, 6 k, 16.20 era, 2.40 whip, 16.2 k/9
Every other game - 18.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 6 bb, 29 k, 0.00 era, 0.50 whip, 14.5 k/9

So in 86% of his appearances he's been insanely good. In 14% of his appearances he's been tagged.