What's gone right?

I think the most heartening thing is that many of all the big question marks have early positive outcomes, consistently enough at least to have reason to believe they're not mirages:
JBJ is hitting
3B is good (Shaw hitting/fielding)
Porcello is dealing
Wright is far more effective than a typical #6 pressed into service
Hanley is proving to be very solid at 1B

The second most heartening thing is that a lot of the needed-to-be-good performances are coming in:
Papi, Pedroia, Xander

The third most heartening things is that some of the disappointments are in the nature of temporary downturns of players with otherwise good track records:
Price, Hanley's hitting

The real problem is trotting out shitty starters in hopes they'll get it together.

Rovin Romine said:

The third most heartening things is that some of the disappointments are in the nature of temporary downturns of players with otherwise good track records:
Price, Hanley's hitting

Click to expand...

You could add Betts' meh start. I mean, he hasn't been terrible, but we know he'll be better.

Rovin Romine said:

The real problem is trotting out shitty starters in hopes they'll get it together.

Click to expand...

There's really only one of them, unless you count Price and that one, Buchholz, had a pretty good game tonight.

Porcello has had one bad game where he went six innings and allowed four runs. Since then, a 2.03 ERA.

Wright hasn't pitched fewer than six innings or allowed more than two runs.

Price has pitched three terrible games and three good ones.

Buchholz has had two good starts now out of six.

Henry Owens has only pitched two games, one good, one bad.

Joe Kelly only pitched three, one bad, one middling, and one aborted.

Eduardo Rodriguez has made no starts.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Buchholz does in his next start. If Henry does well in his and Buchholz does poorly, it might be Buchholz to the DL when Rodriguez comes back.

Rasputin said:

There's really only one of them, unless you count Price and that one, Buchholz, had a pretty good game tonight.

Porcello has had one bad game where he went six innings and allowed four runs. Since then, a 2.03 ERA.

Wright hasn't pitched fewer than six innings or allowed more than two runs.

Price has pitched three terrible games and three good ones.

Buchholz has had two good starts now out of six.

Henry Owens has only pitched two games, one good, one bad.

Joe Kelly only pitched three, one bad, one middling, and one aborted.

Eduardo Rodriguez has made no starts.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Buchholz does in his next start. If Henry does well in his and Buchholz does poorly, it might be Buchholz to the DL when Rodriguez comes back.

Click to expand...

Why the hate for Buchholz after last night? Other then a real injury, which I don't think you were referring to there is almost no chance that Owens keeps a spot in the rotation while Buchholz loses his. I also take exception to Owens having 1 good start out of 2. IMO he had 2 poor starts including letting 10 of the 1st 20 batters get on base, but somehow managed to give up only 2 runs in 6 innings (I assume that is the one you are calling good). Owens just doesn't have the command at this point in his career to be counted on to be a member of the rotation.

In my lifetime said:

Why the hate for Buchholz after last night? Other then a real injury, which I don't think you were referring to there is almost no chance that Owens keeps a spot in the rotation while Buchholz loses his. I also take exception to Owens having 1 good start out of 2. IMO he had 2 poor starts including letting 10 of the 1st 20 batters get on base, but somehow managed to give up only 2 runs in 6 innings (I assume that is the one you are calling good). Owens just doesn't have the command at this point in his career to be counted on to be a member of the rotation.

Click to expand...

IAWTP. Henry Owens cannot be considered to be a serious candidate for a Boston rotation spot until he improves his control, which he still has not mastered at AAA never mind the big leagues. He needs to get back to Pawtucket and work on this. In my mind, Owens is holding ERod's position until he returns - the real risk for Clay is if Joe Kelly puts everything together and starts to push him, but even then Buchholz should be given plenty of rope given Kelly's own history of inconsistency.

Savin Hillbilly said:

You could add Betts' meh start. I mean, he hasn't been terrible, but we know he'll be better.

Click to expand...

I'd call a .281 OBP pretty terrible. I agree he will improve, though.

From: 10 Young big Leaguers who have found their footing
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/176266342/mlb-prospects-major-leagues-find-their-footing?partnerId=ed-10286729-894061933

Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe alluded to, it's hard to imagine a No. 3 hitter playing shortstop for a winning team in Boston getting less hype and attention than the 23-year-old Bogaerts has. He is every bit as big a part of the Red Sox's resurgence as David Ortiz's so-far brilliant final bow, Travis Shaw's usurping of Pablo Sandoval's spot and Dustin Pedroia's resurgence.

First off, that Bogaerts has stuck at short is a credit to his defensive determination. He was upset when the Sox moved him to third to accommodate Stephen Drew midway through 2014, and he put in the work with infield coach Brian Butterfield to improve his range and first step. The result is that he's been an above-average defender, per the advanced metrics, here in 2016.

Couple that with a bat showing improved patience (his walk rate has risen from 4.9 to 8.8 percent) and a little more power, and Bogaerts has the fifth-highest wRC+ (118) mark of any qualified shortstop in the young season. He's also taken the extra base at a higher rate (86 percent) than any qualified regular.

Rasputin said:

There's really only one of them, unless you count Price and that one, Buchholz, had a pretty good game tonight.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Buchholz does in his next start. If Henry does well in his and Buchholz does poorly, it might be Buchholz to the DL when Rodriguez comes back.

Click to expand...

I dunno, I can't see that. Farrell seems to be repeating over and over how they need to get Clay going, and putting him on the DL doesn't do that.

Rasputin said:

There's really only one of them, unless you count Price and that one, Buchholz, had a pretty good game tonight.

Click to expand...

In fact, the Sox' team starting pitching numbers are close to league average in nearly every rate category. The rotation hasn't been "shitty" at all so far, just ordinary. And that's with significant underperformance by the two guys who were nominally the #1 and #2 going into the season, at least one of whom we can hopefully count on to be better the rest of the way.

BestGameEvah said:

Couple that with a bat showing improved patience (his walk rate has risen from 4.9 to 8.8 percent) and a little more power, and Bogaerts has the fifth-highest wRC+ (118) mark of any qualified shortstop in the young season. He's also taken the extra base at a higher rate (86 percent) than any qualified regular.

Click to expand...

And that was written before last night's game. Today, Xander's wRC+ is 136, third in MLB and a close second to Correa in the AL.

Any thoughts of Henry Iwens taking the place of anyone in this rotation should be shelved. He should be demoted and replaced even If they still need someone other than Rodriguez to make that start.

Plympton91 said:

Any thoughts of Henry Iwens taking the place of anyone in this rotation should be shelved. He should be demoted and replaced even If they still need someone other than Rodriguez to make that start.

Click to expand...

He does not appear to be ready right now. Anyone of the other AAA starters would be better, even if they win tonight.

luckysox said:

He does not appear to be ready right now. Anyone of the other AAA starters would be better, even if they win tonight.

Click to expand...

Well that's not true. Some would be at least as bad.

Make that 3 poor starts by Owens. It is like watching a little league game with all the walks. Time to pull the plug.

We're gonna win this division.

Also...ohmygodthewalks.

Pedroia

Not signing Ellsbury

luckysox said:

He does not appear to be ready right now. Anyone of the other AAA starters would be better, even if they win tonight.

Click to expand...

Owens career Minor League BB/9 is 4. At some point he is what he is. If he can't control an 88MPH fastball he doesn't have a future in pro ball.
It would be one thing if he was trying to harness a 95MPH fastball to go along with a wipeout change. The reality is he has never commanded a flat shitty FB that for some reason he only feels comfortable throwing up in the zone.

His upside is probably a low leverage long reliever unless he can somehow learn how to pinpoint his FB and consistently pitch down in the zone.

Another "disaster" start; another win. Off the top of my head I think there have been 5 or 6 starts of fewer than 5 innings and the Sox have won most of those games. Whether that's the result of a good bullpen, or the type of unrepeatable luck similar to the Orioles winning all those one-run games a few years ago, a good record in that particular subset of games (which every team will have a bunch of) is a nice bonus.

j44thor said:

Owens career Minor League BB/9 is 4. At some point he is what he is. If he can't control an 88MPH fastball he doesn't have a future in pro ball.
It would be one thing if he was trying to harness a 95MPH fastball to go along with a wipeout change. The reality is he has never commanded a flat shitty FB that for some reason he only feels comfortable throwing up in the zone.

His upside is probably a low leverage long reliever unless he can somehow learn how to pinpoint his FB and consistently pitch down in the zone.

Click to expand...

I don't get how a guy with his size can only pump a fastball up to 88mph. I realize it's about technique more than strength, but he's been in the system now for a while, and you gotta figure they would have worked on his technique to get a few additional mph's out of that long arm.
As soon as EdRod is ready, this kid has got to start from scratch or something. 88 mph without control... well, it's exactly what we've been seeing from him, but he'll run out of luck and it'll make his recent starts look pretty in comparison.

Also... didn't some smaht guy here figure out that that O's team with all the 1 win victories was the product of a shut-down pen and that's it been the copied model since? Royals, Yankees, Sox all using that template

The lineup has gone smashingly right.

Seven of the nine regular starters have ops+ numbers over 105:

- Hanley: 106
- Pedroia: 134
- Bogaerts: 121
- Shaw: 137
- Holt: 109
- Bradley: 124
- Ortiz: 184

Betts is at 94, so that's a little down, but even with that he's at 0.9 bWAR through 28 games, which would project to 5.2 bWAR over the course of a full season. That's a little down from his 6.0 last year, but still...pretty solid. And Vazquez is just terrific behind the plate so you don't worry about his 75 ops+.

Trotsky said:

I don't get how a guy with his size can only pump a fastball up to 88mph. I realize it's about technique more than strength, but he's been in the system now for a while, and you gotta figure they would have worked on his technique to get a few additional mph's out of that long arm.
As soon as EdRod is ready, this kid has got to start from scratch or something. 88 mph without control... well, it's exactly what we've been seeing from him, but he'll run out of luck and it'll make his recent starts look pretty in comparison.

Click to expand...

To me, Owens looks like his delivery is even slower and more deliberate than last season. IMO, he's probably had his ears talked off since Spring Training about things like "repeatability of delivery" and "mechanical precision" and "muscle memory" and whatever other buzzwords the Sox coaches are using to preach fastball command. So now, he's concentrating on that -- his checkpoints -- and not getting any drive at all from his lower half, making his FB even slower than last season.

Fangraphs books his average FB velocity down only about 1 mph, but his slider velocity up about 3.5 mph. Which suggests to me that he's still deliberately trying to work on creating a consistent delivery with unified arm speed that should allow him to command all his pitches to both sides of the plate without any significant tells.

Should, I said. That's a pretty cool 9.5 BB/9, which I can't ever remember seeing before.

The real problem is that Kelly's injury happened so fast - Owens clearly needs the additional work to become a credible MLB pitcher, but this time he hasn't been called up for garbage time starts in a throwaway season. Hopefully, Owens gets sent back down today and Elias gets the call the next time through the rotation.

Still, to look on the bright side, the Sox are 5-1 in Owens' and Kelly's six starts this season. That's a damn good team record for the #4 spot in the rotation, even if the starts have been horrifying to watch and criminally destructive of the bullpen. And although there's no way such a ridiculous win percentage is even close to sustainable, those wins are nevertheless already on the books. And hopefully, but the time the worm turns, it's Rodriguez toeing the rubber instead of either one of those two clowns.

Meanwhile, starter #5 weeps for the run support. It's astounding the team is 2-3 in Wright's five starts, when he's only given up 6 ER total.

Karma, I guess.

Hanigan. His numbers don't look pretty, but he seems to come through in some pretty clutch situations- the 13 pitch AB vs the Astros, the double and the really nice play at the plate last night. He and Vaz both can disappoint in their hitting a lot, but they're not easy outs, and that means a lot when the rest of the lineup gets grinding.

Trotsky said:

I don't get how a guy with his size can only pump a fastball up to 88mph. I realize it's about technique more than strength, but he's been in the system now for a while, and you gotta figure they would have worked on his technique to get a few additional mph's out of that long arm.
As soon as EdRod is ready, this kid has got to start from scratch or something. 88 mph without control... well, it's exactly what we've been seeing from him, but he'll run out of luck and it'll make his recent starts look pretty in comparison.

Also... didn't some smaht guy here figure out that that O's team with all the 1 win victories was the product of a shut-down pen and that's it been the copied model since? Royals, Yankees, Sox all using that template

Click to expand...

Owens reminds me of John Halama another tall lefty that struggled to break 90mph with his FB. Though Halama had much better command than Owens does. Owens is basically a poor mans Halama right now.

j44thor said:

Owens reminds me of John Halama another tall lefty that struggled to break 90mph with his FB. Though Halama had much better command than Owens does. Owens is basically a poor mans Halama right now.

Click to expand...

Lee Guetterman

I know I've heard pitching coaches talk about taller lefties taking a little more time to develop because of all the moving parts.
Andrew Miller and Randy Johnson are two other guys who began their careers with well below average control, but with good k rates (at least in the minors)
Granted Owens has about 1/80th of their stuff, but I'd like to give him more time (but please god, in AAA). He can generate a lot of swings and misses regardless of his velocity.
Smarter people than me, can probably break down his mechanics and talk about how to simplify things, but once Miller and Johnson found the plate enough, they kept it.

Here's hoping he's more Halama than Abe Alvarez.

If you look around you'll find some articles by mike Marshall about why arm length and stride length don't translate to velocity. When you think about the length being a lever you are making a bunch of assumptions about the mechanical system that don't translate directly to biomechanics.

Point being, there is no reason to come up with an assumption that just because a guy is tall he should be able to throw hard.

SABR on height:

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

This is a totally tongue in cheek observation, but in many ways what has gone right is almost everything EXCEPT Dombrowski's big moves. Unless you count Shaw over Pablo as a DD move.

A month from now, I expect Price will be cruising, Young will be hitting a bit more, and Smith will be healthy and slotted into a late inning role. But let the record show that much of the success in April came from the existing pieces (particularly the kids) playing up to potential.

nothumb said:

This is a totally tongue in cheek observation, but in many ways what has gone right is almost everything EXCEPT Dombrowski's big moves. Unless you count Shaw over Pablo as a DD move.

A month from now, I expect Price will be cruising, Young will be hitting a bit more, and Smith will be healthy and slotted into a late inning role. But let the record show that much of the success in April came from the existing pieces (particularly the kids) playing up to potential.

Click to expand...

Uhh that Craig guy on the whole has been pretty solid minus two hiccups

jimbobim said:

Uhh that Craig guy on the whole has been pretty solid minus two hiccups

Click to expand...

Absolutely. Like I said, making this remark in jest now because I expect it won't really be remotely true a month from now.

Heating up in the bullpen said:

Has anybody else noticed that a lot of close calls are going the Red Sox way? I'm thinking of several tag plays at 3rd - Sox runners being called safe, opposing runners being called out. Most of those plays are bang-bang judgment calls by the umps. Because the initial rulings are in favor of the Sox, the reviews end up in favor of the Sox, not because the evidence is clearly in favor of the Sox, but because there's not enough evidence to overturn.
The Ortiz score just before Hanley was tagged out at third play on Sunday was just the latest example. If the initial ruling had been no run, it probably wouldn't have been overturned.
To my eye the Sox have been getting a lot of those kinds of calls. It feels like everything that could go right is going right.

Click to expand...

Again last night with the play at the plate. There probably will be a time when a few in a row go against the team, and it may be helpful to look back to remember it tends to even out.

nothumb said:

This is a totally tongue in cheek observation, but in many ways what has gone right is almost everything EXCEPT Dombrowski's big moves. Unless you count Shaw over Pablo as a DD move.

A month from now, I expect Price will be cruising, Young will be hitting a bit more, and Smith will be healthy and slotted into a late inning role. But let the record show that much of the success in April came from the existing pieces (particularly the kids) playing up to potential.

Click to expand...

A team is the sum of its parts. Without Price and Kimbrel alone there's a ton more pressure on the other guys in different roles. Not having either of those guys makes every single slot in both the rotation and bullpen worse. Instead of Wright as the 5, now you have Owens, and probably Johnson up when Kelly gets hurt. No Kimbrel, Koji and Taz are leaned on even more heavily than before and the last man in your bullpen is likely Light or Ramirez instead of Hembree and Barnes.

BaseballJones said:

The lineup has gone smashingly right.

Seven of the nine regular starters have ops+ numbers over 105:

- Hanley: 106
- Pedroia: 134
- Bogaerts: 121
- Shaw: 137
- Holt: 109
- Bradley: 124
- Ortiz: 184

Betts is at 94, so that's a little down, but even with that he's at 0.9 bWAR through 28 games, which would project to 5.2 bWAR over the course of a full season. That's a little down from his 6.0 last year, but still...pretty solid. And Vazquez is just terrific behind the plate so you don't worry about his 75 ops+.

Click to expand...

The lineup is definitely hitting, they're the best AL offense by more than half a run. And what is encouraging is that for everyone who may be playing above their head (Ortiz and Pedroia are well above their best OPS+ ever, Shaw's BABIP seems impossibly high for his underlying numbers), there are players you can reasonably expect to perform better this year (Betts, Hanley, Young). So if (or when) some players come back to earth, we can expect others to compensate. This isn't an offense built around one or two guys playing well over their heads, it's balanced and deep.

The bullpen is shaping up nicely. Their overall numbers are closer to the middle of the pack than the top, but I think if we can get the starting rotation a bit more stable and going deeper into games, the depth guys will be used less and the overall numbers will come up. If you restrict the numbers to players on the active roster right now, their numbers improve considerably and they move into the top 5 in the AL in ERA,FIP, and XFIP, so a lot of the guys dragging down their numbers are the back of the bullpen guys they cycled through earlier in the year. Adding in Carson Smith and what we've seen from him so far, I'm pretty optimistic about the relievers.

The starting rotation is the only real concern for me. I think Price will end up straightened out. He's just been too good, and his strikeout and walk numbers are just too good for him to stink all year. Porcello has looked good, but I just don't have enough experience seeing him pitch well to say this is the new him. Wright has an ERA so much better than his xFIP that I keep waiting for the correction to come, even though i'm enjoying the hell out of watching him pitch. Even with a correction, he still looks like he has enough to be a mid to back end starter for years, so that's nice. And yeah, Buchholz and Owens. But maybe we see Edro soon? Real soon?

This thread is becoming alarmingly close to being a splooge fest which we haven't had since roughly 2013.

jimbobim said:

Uhh that Craig guy on the whole has been pretty solid minus two hiccups

Click to expand...

I nominate this for Most Confusing Post When Read Out of Context Ever.

I don't know whether to worry about Kimbrel yet or not. The walk rate and HR rate are a bit worrisome. But the sample is very small so far, and FWIW he historically has had his highest walk rates in April and May, so this may be normal early-season stuff for him.

joe dokes said:

Another "disaster" start; another win. Off the top of my head I think there have been 5 or 6 starts of fewer than 5 innings and the Sox have won most of those games. Whether that's the result of a good bullpen, or the type of unrepeatable luck similar to the Orioles winning all those one-run games a few years ago, a good record in that particular subset of games (which every team will have a bunch of) is a nice bonus.

Click to expand...

I like testing "off the top of my head" ideas when I have time. I looked for games the Sox won with the starter going fewer than 5 innings (so I basically looked for games the Sox won with the win going to a reliever, since if the starter had gone 5 or more he would get the win). Under that definition, there have now been three "Disaster Start" wins, including last night.

4/8 @ Blue Jays, W 8-7. Joe Kelly goes 3.0 IP (+6 batters in the 4th), leaves trailing 7-2. NRamirez (2 IP) and Barnes (1 IP) hold the line while the Sox chip away with 4 in the 6th (Holt GS) and 2 in the 7th (four straight one-out singles by Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz and HRamirez). Tazawa, Koji and Kimbrel shut the Jays down the rest of the way.

4/24 @ Astros, W 7-5 (12 innings) ... Sox jump on Feldman for 3 in the 1st and 2 more in the 3rd. Owens (3.1 IP), making his first start, gives back 1 in the 2nd and 2 in the 3rd, and is pulled with one out after an infield single in the 4th, having thrown 86 pitches and leading 5-3. Barnes (2 IP), Tazawa (1.2) and Koji (1) hold the Astros down while the Sox fail to pad the lead. Kimbrel gives up a 2-run homer to Rasmus in the 9th to send it to extras. Hembree goes the final three innings, getting the win when JBJ singles in the lead run (and Hanigan scores on a wild pitch for some insurance).

5/4 @ White Sox, W 7-3. Sox jump out to a 4-1 lead, but Owens is dancing on the edge with little command of his pitches (6 BB, 1 WP). When Owens gives up a HR to Garcia to lead off the 4th, Farrell gives the lefty the early hook with a 4-2 lead. Hembree gives one back (on 5 hits and 2 walks in 1.1 IP) before Barnes (1.2), Tazawa (1) and RossJr (2) shut the White Sox down and the Red Sox add some insurance for the final 7-3 tally.

So even among the three Disaster Start wins, the Sox only trailed in one of them.

There have been wins in three other games with less-than-quality starts:
4/9 @ Blue Jays, W 8-4. Porcello gives up 4 runs in 6 innings, but leaves with an 8-4 lead. Koji (1 IP) and Ross Jr (2) pitch three perfect innings to close it out.
4/13 vs Orioles, W 4-2. Kelly holds the Os to 2 runs, but gives up 7 hits and 5 walks before leaving with a 4-2 lead after 5 IP (116 pitches). Barnes (.2 IP), Layne (.2), Tazawa (.2), Koji (1) and Kimbrel (1) close out the Os first loss of the season.
5/1 vs Yankees, W 8-7. Price gives up 6 runs in 7 innings, Vasquez breaks the 6-6 tie with his 2-run shot off Betances, Koji gives one back and Kimbrel closes it out.

Heating up in the bullpen said:

I like testing "off the top of my head" ideas when I have time. I looked for games the Sox won with the starter going fewer than 5 innings (so I basically looked for games the Sox won with the win going to a reliever, since if the starter had gone 5 or more he would get the win). Under that definition, there have now been three "Disaster Start" wins, including last night.

4/8 @ Blue Jays, W 8-7. Joe Kelly goes 3.0 IP (+6 batters in the 4th), leaves trailing 7-2. NRamirez (2 IP) and Barnes (1 IP) hold the line while the Sox chip away with 4 in the 6th (Holt GS) and 2 in the 7th (four straight one-out singles by Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz and HRamirez). Tazawa, Koji and Kimbrel shut the Jays down the rest of the way.

4/24 @ Astros, W 7-5 (12 innings) ... Sox jump on Feldman for 3 in the 1st and 2 more in the 3rd. Owens (3.1 IP), making his first start, gives back 1 in the 2nd and 2 in the 3rd, and is pulled with one out after an infield single in the 4th, having thrown 86 pitches and leading 5-3. Barnes (2 IP), Tazawa (1.2) and Koji (1) hold the Astros down while the Sox fail to pad the lead. Kimbrel gives up a 2-run homer to Rasmus in the 9th to send it to extras. Hembree goes the final three innings, getting the win when JBJ singles in the lead run (and Hanigan scores on a wild pitch for some insurance).

5/4 @ White Sox, W 7-3. Sox jump out to a 4-1 lead, but Owens is dancing on the edge with little command of his pitches (6 BB, 1 WP). When Owens gives up a HR to Garcia to lead off the 4th, Farrell gives the lefty the early hook with a 4-2 lead. Hembree gives one back (on 5 hits and 2 walks in 1.1 IP) before Barnes (1.2), Tazawa (1) and RossJr (2) shut the White Sox down and the Red Sox add some insurance for the final 7-3 tally.

So even among the three Disaster Start wins, the Sox only trailed in one of them.

There have been wins in three other games with less-than-quality starts:
4/9 @ Blue Jays, W 8-4. Porcello gives up 4 runs in 6 innings, but leaves with an 8-4 lead. Koji (1 IP) and Ross Jr (2) pitch three perfect innings to close it out.
4/13 vs Orioles, W 4-2. Kelly holds the Os to 2 runs, but gives up 7 hits and 5 walks before leaving with a 4-2 lead after 5 IP (116 pitches). Barnes (.2 IP), Layne (.2), Tazawa (.2), Koji (1) and Kimbrel (1) close out the Os first loss of the season.
5/1 vs Yankees, W 8-7. Price gives up 6 runs in 7 innings, Vasquez breaks the 6-6 tie with his 2-run shot off Betances, Koji gives one back and Kimbrel closes it out.

Click to expand...

My point is that they won all those games. Which is probably unusual.
There was also the Kellly leaves in the first inning game. They lost that one.

joe dokes said:

My point is that they won all those games. Which is probably unusual.
There was also the Kellly leaves in the first inning game. They lost that one.

Click to expand...

Sorry, I misread your original post, which is why I was only looking for Disaster Start Wins. Let's see how those compare to Disaster Start Losses.

4/6 @ Indians, L 7-6. Buchholz goes 4 innings, gives up 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks, leaves trailing 5-2. Sox come back to take the lead 6-5 in the 6th. Indians tie it up with a run in the 6th (NRamirez in his second inning of work). Tazawa gives up a blast to Napoli in the 7th for the difference in the game.
4/11 vs Orioles, L 9-7. Price gives up 5 runs in 5 innings (all in the 3rd), leaves tied at 5-5. Os go ahead with 1 in the 6th, Sox tie it in the bottom of the 6th. Kimbrel gives up the 3-run, 2-out homer to Davis in the 9th. Sox get one back on a Betts homer, and Pedroia and Bogaerts both get on, but Ortiz grounds into a double play and Hanley strikes out to end it.
4/12 vs Orioles, L 9-4. Buchholz gives up 5 runs in 5 innings (+ 4 batters in the 6th). Sox jumped out to a 2-0 lead. Os tied it in the 4th on Hardy's homer around the Pesky Pole. Sox went ahead in the 5th, 4-2. Buchholz couldn't get an out in the 6th, going single-homer-walk-double, leaving with the game tied and runners on 2nd and 3rd. NRamirez gave up a sac fly (run charged to Buchholz) before getting out of the inning without further damage. In the 7th, Ramirez (single, then pulled) and Ross Jr combined to give up 4 runs (including another Hardy poke behind the pole in right).
4/19 vs Rays, L 3-0 (10 innings). Joe Kelly leaves with shoulder pain after getting two outs and giving up two walks in the 1st. The bullpen -- Hembree (3.1 IP), Ross Jr (3.0), Tazawa (1.0) and Kimbrel (1.0) -- shuts the Rays down through 9. But Drew Smyly is on, one-hitting the Sox through 8. Barnes gives up 3 runs (1 earned) in the 10th to take the loss, as the Sox hitters did nothing against Erasmo Ramirez and Alex Colome.
4/21 vs Rays, L 12-8. Price can't make it out of the 4th inning, giving up 8 runs in 3.2 IP and leaving down 8-5. Sox scrap back to tie it with 2 in the 6th and 1 in the 7th, but Cuevas and NRamirez combine to give up 1 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th.
4/23 @ Astros, L 8-3. Another stinker from Buchholz, as he gives up 5 runs in 5.2 innings, the big blow being Rasmus' grand slam in the 5th, and he leaves trailing 5-2. Sox make it 5-3 with a run in the 8th, then Elias gives up 3 in the bottom of the 8th to seal it.
4/28 vs Braves, L 5-3. Buchholz goes 6.1 IP but gives up 5 runs and leaves trailing 5-2. Sox never get anything going offensively despite 10 hits, 3 walks and 2 errors by the Braves.

So ten total Disaster Starts, with three wins.* Anybody know how that compares to league averages?

*Or four wins in 11 Disaster Starts if you count Price's 5/1 start against the Yankees. I don't think those other two non-quality starts qualify as disasters - Porcello givng up 4 in 6 innings and leaving with an 8-4 lead, and Kelly giving up 2 in 5 innings and leaving with a 4-2 lead.

More on Disaster Starts, from Alex Speier's 108 Stitches newsletter:
"It was a game they did not and could not have won a year ago.
The kiddie-pool shallow state of the Red Sox bullpen in 2015 rendered it virtually impossible at times either to come back for a late-innings victory or to withstand a poor starting pitching effort. A three-inning , six-walk outing such as the one authored by lefthander Henry Owens on Thursday night represented a recipe for certain failure in 2015. The Sox were winless in 10 games in which their starter got knocked out in three or fewer innings, and 1-18 in games where their starter failed to log more than four innings.
In early 2016, games no longer follow such a script. The Red Sox’ growing array of bullpen options – along with a lineup that seems to mount threats in steady waves – has resulted in an ability to win games that so often seemed unwinnable last year.
The Red Sox’ 7-3 win over the White Sox on Thursday marked Boston’s second win of the young season in a game in which one of their starters failed to record an out after the third inning. They are 2-1 in such games, and 3-3 in contests where their starter gets knocked out in four or fewer innings. They are the only team in the majors this year with multiple wins in games where one of their starters got knocked out in three or fewer innings."

Should JBJ and Mookie be switched up (temporarily?) in the lineup?
For the season Jackie has an OPS over .800 with OBP at almost .350 With his level of defense, he's looking like an All Star right now.

Speaking of JBJ..... does Cafardo know "5-tools" are? Ellsbury definitely did not have 5 tools.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/05/08/choosing-bradley-over-ellsbury-right-call/3p1MkasVIEO3EL10UBT4qI/story.html

Yeah, JBJ hitting a .900 OPS clip is something going absolutely right.

Buzzkill Pauley said:

Yeah, JBJ hitting a .900 OPS clip is something going absolutely right.

Click to expand...

He's had a surprising number of defensive miscues, but the 2016 JBJ is sure fun to watch.

Batting at .372 OPS above his defensively-flawless 2014 campaign certainly appears to paper over a surprising number of miscues.

Fingers crossed, knock on wood. All that.

Buzzkill Pauley said:

Yeah, JBJ hitting a .900 OPS clip is something going absolutely right.

Click to expand...

Comparing JBJ's current 15-game hitting streak to his 25-game hot streak last year.

2016
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
55 10 21 4 3 4 17 4 15 .382 .424 .782 1.206
Beginning numbers (4/24) .222 .271 .315 .586
Current (5/9 - 15 games) .303 .353 .550 .903

2015
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
83 29 37 13 4 7 32 7 24 .446 .489 .952 1.441
Begin (8/9) .121 .254 .172 .426
End (9/7 - 25 games) .312 .385 .631 1.016
End of season .249 .335 .498 .832

Not quite as hot (yet?) this year. We all know last year's hot streak was followed by a strong swoon (25 games with a .138/.233/.263/.496 slash line - not far off from the numbers he had when the streak started). Hopefully he can keep the cooling off spell from being so cold this year.

(Edit: Corrected the beginning number for each streak)

Harry Hooper said:

He's had a surprising number of defensive miscues, but the 2016 JBJ is sure fun to watch.

Click to expand...

I'm worried about his arm though. That awesome Pedey throw to third the other day was the result of a terrible bounced throw from JBJ, and I've seen too many of his throws home pulled up the first base line now not be feeling alarmed. I really hope it's just an adjustment that needs to be made to the new weight he's put on. It would be a pretty cutting irony to have him start hitting like a monster just in time to go down for arm surgery.

simplicio said:

I'm worried about his arm though. That awesome Pedey throw to third the other day was the result of a terrible bounced throw from JBJ, and I've seen too many of his throws home pulled up the first base line now not be feeling alarmed. I really hope it's just an adjustment that needs to be made to the new weight he's put on. It would be a pretty cutting irony to have him start hitting like a monster just in time to go down for arm surgery.

Click to expand...

I think the throw the other night can be chalked up to the wet ball. That wasn't a case of a throw being a little off line, he essentially late released and threw it into the ground. I don't see that as the sort of thing symptomatic of an injury.

Heating up in the bullpen said:

More on Disaster Starts, from Alex Speier's 108 Stitches newsletter:

The Red Sox’ 7-3 win over the White Sox on Thursday marked Boston’s second win of the young season in a game in which one of their starters failed to record an out after the third inning. They are 2-1 in such games, and 3-3 in contests where their starter gets knocked out in four or fewer innings. They are the only team in the majors this year with multiple wins in games where one of their starters got knocked out in three or fewer innings."

Click to expand...

This is really all I was guessing at. Not surprisingly, Alex Speier did it better than I did.

Heating up in the bullpen said:

Comparing JBJ's current 15-game hitting streak to his 25-game hot streak last year.

2016
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
55 10 21 4 3 4 17 4 15 .382 .424 .782 1.206
Beginning numbers (4/24) .222 .271 .315 .586
Current (5/9 - 15 games) .303 .353 .550 .903

2015
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
83 29 37 13 4 7 32 7 24 .446 .489 .952 1.441
Begin (8/9) .121 .254 .172 .426
End (9/7 - 25 games) .312 .385 .631 1.016
End of season .249 .335 .498 .832

Not quite as hot (yet?) this year. We all know last year's hot streak was followed by a strong swoon (25 games with a .138/.233/.263/.496 slash line - not far off from the numbers he had when the streak started). Hopefully he can keep the cooling off spell from being so cold this year.

(Edit: Corrected the beginning number for each streak)

Click to expand...

I've been pretty pro-JBJ since his initial start despite a whole ton of evidence that he was going (could still be) nothing but AAAA stuff. That said, he's definitely exceeding even his most ball-washing cheerleaders here or anywhere. I still think he's simply going to be a very streaky hitter- locks in and kills it (over an 1.000 OPS for stretches) and then loses it (sub .600 OPS for stretches) and we'll wind up with a guy around a .750-.775 OPS on the season which would still put him, including even his miscues this season defensively, as one of the top 5 CF's in the league (I can't wrap my head around OPS+ still or WAR or any of those...).

I wondered back in Spring Training if a streaky hitter winding up at the same numbers as a consistent hitter would be worth less in a way- obviously if the playoffs coincide with a streaky hitter's shit streak then yeah.

simplicio said:

I'm worried about his arm though. That awesome Pedey throw to third the other day was the result of a terrible bounced throw from JBJ, and I've seen too many of his throws home pulled up the first base line now not be feeling alarmed. I really hope it's just an adjustment that needs to be made to the new weight he's put on. It would be a pretty cutting irony to have him start hitting like a monster just in time to go down for arm surgery.

Click to expand...

Since this is the "what's gone right" thread, it's fair to point out that JBJ could be moved to LF rather than go down for arm surgery, if he indeed has injured it.