Your preferred Celtic target at #3

1. Bender (highest eventual upside)
2. Hield (most able to help next year, given current roster)

Would prefer a trade to either.

Trade to Philly in deal for Okafor if #3-6 and Dunn is on the board for Philly.
Trade to Chicago in deal with Bradley for Butler if #3-6. Expand deal to include Taj Gibson.

Keep pick and select Ingram if #1-2.

Bender if making the pick.
Trade if it nets a star (Butler, Cousins, Love, not Okafor, he's hot garbage with upside to become above average not a star)

Do not trade for Okafor under any circumstances. I do not understand that line of logic at all. His upside is basically Al Jefferson. Al Jefferson in an era where Al Jefferson style skills are less valuable than they have ever been. He's a defensive sieve. He's not particularly efficient, even in the post. In his brief time in the NBA, he's already shown some character concerns. Of all the proposed trade targets, Okafor is the one that has never made any sense to me, nor have I ever seen anyone construct a particularly good argument about why he'd fit the team outside of "he's a big". It's not even like he'd mesh particularly well with any of the Celtics' current bigs given he can't defend, and I'm not sure he'd add much on the offense given the degree to which he's a ball stopper. He just seems like a guy people have latched onto because he might be available, and he plays a position the C's don't have depth in...even though he doesn't play it particularly well or fit the Celtics' system worth a damn.

Scoops Bolling said:

Do not trade for Okafor under any circumstances. I do not understand that line of logic at all. His upside is basically Al Jefferson. Al Jefferson in an era where Al Jefferson style skills are less valuable than they have ever been. He's a defensive sieve. He's not particularly efficient, even in the post. In his brief time in the NBA, he's already shown some character concerns. Of all the proposed trade targets, Okafor is the one that has never made any sense to me, nor have I ever seen anyone construct a particularly good argument about why he'd fit the team outside of "he's a big". It's not even like he'd mesh particularly well with any of the Celtics' current bigs given he can't defend, and I'm not sure he'd add much on the offense given the degree to which he's a ball stopper. He just seems like a guy people have latched onto because he might be available, and he plays a position the C's don't have depth in...even though he doesn't play it particularly well or fit the Celtics' system worth a damn.

Click to expand...

Under any circumstance? Okafor is already far ahead of Jefferson at the same age but even if he was Big Al Redux that type of production at a position of need is certainly worthy of a non-Simmons/Ingram rookie. He was a 19 year old kid placed in a horrific situation without a legitimate NBA guard on the entire roster to get him the ball in scoring positions, was paired with Noel which eliminated any spacing for him to work resulting in double teams and/or forced shots, while still being a 19 year old kid in a men's league with no veterans on the roster to learn from having been left to run blind.

Once Colangelo arrived and immediately brought back Ish Smith we saw Okafor's numbers make a dramatic rise. His FG% went from 46% in Nov and 44% in Dec......to 61% in January and 57% in February once a semblance of an NBA point guard was in place in Smith. Was your inefficient comment referring to the first two months of the season? Over the final 3 months (after Smith returned) Okafor was an extremely efficient scorer with an eFG% at the top of the league among true offensive options as a 20-year old!

There are no doubt he has holes in his game as all 20-year olds do and he will never have the athleticism to be an elite defender or the instincts to be a great rebounder. He's still one of the most offensively gifted bigs to come into the league in the past 10-15 years. Okafor's liabilities will prevent him from having a super high ceiling however his offensive skills that he already possesses which will surely keep improving make his floor a really good NBA player who will be on a super cheap rookie deal for 3 more years.

Since we're talking draft I feel the exploding cap will create a new market efficiency in rookies, primarily 3 and 4-year college players, who can step into rotations immediately in a similar way that pre-arb players do in MLB. When role players like Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli are going to be making $10-15m next season there is tremendous value in finding a mature college kid to play these minutes.

While I obviously want to make a post shitting on Okafor, I actually think this is a good topic, so I'll try and refocus. Bender seems to be the consensus at 3. What if he's gone, and they have to make a pick?

Is there anyone else you can squint at, and make a case for? I don't watch much college ball myself, so these are mostly just names and stats for me.

If we're picking 4 or 5 and Bender is gone (and I'm not sold on him at 3), I probably go Jamal Murray and then Dunn. Neither player wows me but both could be a cheap replacement for Evan Turner and both would be an upgrade over Rozier.

This is going to be a depressing thread.

If there isn't a good deal to be made I don't see drafting a guard as a problem if you get a good player. Trades can happen later. Rozier and Evan Turner just got major minutes in a playoff series. I like Murray and Dunn. After the workouts teams are going to fall in love with one of those guys. Take whichever one you like the best and you'll be getting offers.

One trade I think would be interesting would be the pick for Brook Lopez if the pick is 5 or 6. Bonus for the Celtics that the trade would help next year's pick we have coming to us.

If the Celts are forced to pick, then at the very least Hield should really help with their pretty abysmal outside shooting. He'd make them better next year.

If the Celtics get stuck at 6, I'd take Hield. Otherwise, I'd roll the dice on Murray.

Bender/Dunn/Hield in that order. With Dunn, I don't care about the logjam at guard. That would probably mean flipping Bradley perhaps in a deal to move up with one of the other first-round selections.

I definitely would think it should be shipped if there is a deal out there to be made, however. Otherwise, I'm for making the pick unless 1/2, but would still listen to offers.

HomeRunBaker said:

Under any circumstance? Okafor is already far ahead of Jefferson at the same age but even if he was Big Al Redux that type of production at a position of need is certainly worthy of a non-Simmons/Ingram rookie. He was a 19 year old kid placed in a horrific situation without a legitimate NBA guard on the entire roster to get him the ball in scoring positions, was paired with Noel which eliminated any spacing for him to work resulting in double teams and/or forced shots, while still being a 19 year old kid in a men's league with no veterans on the roster to learn from having been left to run blind.

Once Colangelo arrived and immediately brought back Ish Smith we saw Okafor's numbers make a dramatic rise. His FG% went from 46% in Nov and 44% in Dec......to 61% in January and 57% in February once a semblance of an NBA point guard was in place in Smith. Was your inefficient comment referring to the first two months of the season? Over the final 3 months (after Smith returned) Okafor was an extremely efficient scorer with an eFG% at the top of the league among true offensive options as a 20-year old!

There are no doubt he has holes in his game as all 20-year olds do and he will never have the athleticism to be an elite defender or the instincts to be a great rebounder. He's still one of the most offensively gifted bigs to come into the league in the past 10-15 years. Okafor's liabilities will prevent him from having a super high ceiling however his offensive skills that he already possesses which will surely keep improving make his floor a really good NBA player who will be on a super cheap rookie deal for 3 more years.

Click to expand...

Honestly I didn't love Okafor coming out, and I like him less now. His eFG% may have increased, but he actually got worse as an overall player in the second half. His defense went from very bad to an outright travesty, and the team was so so so much better with him on the bench on both ends. He just kills any type of system a team wants to run on either end of the floor.

On D- He can't really block shots, and he's miserable at switching, his athletic limitations make me doubt he'll ever progress to even average at either of those things.

On O- He stops the ball, just completely eats up possessions and clock time. Post-ups are some of the worst offense in the NBA, and it's all he brings. Since he isn't now, and likely never will be an instinctive passer like a Horford he doesn't help his teammates get good shots.

Looking at the on/offs from post-ASB, the Sixers' offense and defense went in the tank when he was on the floor. Their OReb dropped off significantly, their turnovers went through the roof, he just killed them on both ends.

I appreciate the sentiment with Hield but I can't help but feel a little agitated by the idea of drafting for immediate help, because I don't think it's realistic in most cases. If there's an adjustment curve (and there will be) while he figures out how to get open against NBA competition, what else is he going to do for you? People throw out wild comps but what if he's on the Redick trajectory? I guess I'd go with Bender or whoever else has the biggest upside (Marquese Chriss? I don't watch much college ball so genuinely asking).

I think the Celtics are trading this pick under almost any circumstance. Ingram I'd guess is the one exception. Regarding HRB's comment about the potential value in experienced college players; if the C's don't end up trading their whole first round I do hope they devote some later picks to guys who can carve out roles in the near future with an eye toward consolidating some of the current roster assets as needed. Of course, I'm sure GMs league-wide are all going to be after the next Dray Green so competition could be fierce.

I don't think Danny will sacrifice value to draft for need. (Look at the Rozier pick). He won't draft Hield if he sees better value with other picks.

That said, I think the most likely scenario is he trades the pick.

Eddie Jurak said:

I don't think Danny will sacrifice value to draft for need. (Look at the Rozier pick). He won't draft Hield if he sees better value with other picks.

That said, I think the most likely scenario is he trades the pick.

Click to expand...

I don't like how Hield's game translates and feel he will have trouble creating his own shot at the next level. I feel he would have trouble even getting into our guard rotation next year much less be worth a high lottery pick for that right.

If Ainge keeps the pick I do feel he'll look hard to move it but if he can't then Dunn appears to be the BPA and he's ready to play from day one. I don't know how this works in Boston with Isaiah having the ball in his hands though so need has to play a factor to some degree when you're looking to build a team.

Re: Okafor's peripherals. I place less weight on team numbers when evaluating a player on such a dysfunctional team and more on traditional scouting. The offense was designed for it to stop once it got into the post and with little floor spacing and no perimeter shooting a post move was Okafor's only option......I'm thinking that is also more a function of the Sixers dysfunction. He has improved his mid-range game and has good form to be able to expand his face up game in time. At this point with him such a young player who isn't close to a finished product I don't trust those numbers carrying much weight as they are result-oriented (and not projections with an expanded game and actual NBA teammates) and more on the individual skills I've seen him display post-ASB. If he doesn't turn out to be a really good player for a long time I'll be very surprised.

I'm sure Okafor will be a "good" player. What I don't think he'll be is a "good" player who is a cornerstone of a winning team. The offense will always be there for him but his defense and potential weight issues down the road would concern me.

BigSoxFan said:

I'm sure Okafor will be a "good" player. What I don't think he'll be is a "good" player who is a cornerstone of a winning team. The offense will always be there for him but his defense and potential weight issues down the road would concern me.

Click to expand...

We wouldn't need to move picks 3-6 for a cornerstone especially in this draft as that wouldn't be realistic without adding an additional starter or future draft picks. I'm talking about a cost-controlled player who if he matches Jefferson's production would be tremendous value drafting in that spot. The Jefferson comp is a good one even though Okafor is far ahead of him at the same age.....I could certainly live with that out of the 3-6 pick. I'd expect that cornerstone guy out of the 1st pick but not 3-6.

HomeRunBaker said:

We wouldn't need to move picks 3-6 for a cornerstone especially in this draft as that wouldn't be realistic without adding an additional starter or future draft picks. I'm talking about a cost-controlled player who if he matches Jefferson's production would be tremendous value drafting in that spot. The Jefferson comp is a good one even though Okafor is far ahead of him at the same age.....I could certainly live with that out of the 3-6 pick. I'd expect that cornerstone guy out of the 1st pick but not 3-6.

Click to expand...

I agree there. I am one of the ones who would probably trade the 3-6 pick for Okafor because I don't really like the other options. And I'm sick of watching Sullinger.

Pxer said:

Bender/Dunn/Hield in that order. With Dunn, I don't care about the logjam at guard. That would probably mean flipping Bradley perhaps in a deal to move up with one of the other first-round selections.

I definitely would think it should be shipped if there is a deal out there to be made, however. Otherwise, I'm for making the pick unless 1/2, but would still listen to offers.

Click to expand...

I can't imagine a world in which trading Bradley, alone let alone packaged with anything else of value, for anyone outside the top 6 in this draft class makes sense. I'm skeptical that it makes sense for anyone outside Ingram and Simmons.

for purpose of this thread, we're to assume that there's no attractive trade to make... in that case...

you either draft for immediate help - Dunn or Hield. Dunn has slightly more upside while Hield is a slightly better roster fit (maybe trade down for Hield).

Or you draft for most long-term upside: Bender (and stash) or Jaylen Brown with all his physical gifts.

I'm a bit torn on Murray & lean towards staying clear of him. Don't see him ever being a PG - to me he's more like a younger Hield

HomeRunBaker said:

If Ainge keeps the pick I do feel he'll look hard to move it but if he can't then Dunn appears to be the BPA and he's ready to play from day one. I don't know how this works in Boston with Isaiah having the ball in his hands though so need has to play a factor to some degree when you're looking to build a team.

Click to expand...

If Dunn can guard 2-guards I don't think it would matter - we saw from the Atlanta series that Isaiah can be a very effective offensive 2 guard.

HomeRunBaker said:

Trade to Philly in deal for Okafor if #3-6 and Dunn is on the board for Philly.
Trade to Chicago in deal with Bradley for Butler if #3-6. Expand deal to include Taj Gibson.

Keep pick and select Ingram if #1-2.

Click to expand...

HRB, do you think Ainge would prefer trading for George or Butler if the packages were roughly equal? ( I think George would cost a little bit more)

maufman said:

I would keep the pick and grab Hield if it's the 6th pick, but would think hard about trading down if it's #3 or #4.

How far down will Henry Ellenson slide? He could be a nice trade-down target if Dunn is the best player available when the C's pick, but Ellenson probably needs to fall to #9 to make the return on such a trade worthwhile.

Click to expand...

Agree completely with your first sentence, and I like Ellenson well enough, but is he redundant with Olynyk? I guess if we assume Sully's gone, having two offensively versatile, stretch big men who aren't really rim protectors is good, but there are a handful of guys that I think have considerable defensive upside- Deyonta Davis is another late lottery projection that I'd prefer over Ellenson. And Steven Zimmerman, Damian Jones, Diamond Stone, and AJ Hammonds all should be available later. Certainly all have significant warts, particularly on offense.

As far as win-now guys, Hield and Dunn would be the target for 3-6, with Valentine, Caris Levert, Taurean Prince and Brice Johnson as the other guys potentially capable of contributing something to a winning team.

Petr Cornelie is my annual youtube-mixtape international late round target. Bender-lite, he's a coordinated 7-footer who can shoot, but doesn't look ready to battle with guys down low in the NBA.

tbb345 said:

HRB, do you think Ainge would prefer trading for George or Butler if the packages were roughly equal? ( I think George would cost a little bit more)

Click to expand...

I would say George as he is more versatile with his ability at the 3/4, improves our roster balance to alleviate our glut of 2's or 2/3's, has a far better health/durability history, and is frankly the better overall player. For all the love Crowder gets in Boston we really miss winning this crucial position against the best teams as we did with Pierce for years.

Butler is a really good player but I don't see any evidence that he can help lure a big FA to Boston based on his asshole reputation. If Durant wants to play somewhere warm he'll choose between San Antonio and Golden State. If he wants to win rings......he'll choose between San Antonio and Golden State. Whatever is the incremental percentage above zero that's the chance we have of landing him against these teams.

I'd be in favor of unloading the farm for George and overpaying Horford if for some reason Atlanta doesn't max him (Atl can pay him $150m vs the $111m Max another team could pay him). It's much more likely Atlanta brings back Horford and trades Teague to offset that additional cost. They can then go with Schroder as their starter and sign a relatively cheap backup.

I don't mind Durant to Golden State as it means the Warriors are either gutting the roster in order to turn Klay Thompson into a 3&D player or trading him. And the latter seems more likely and Boston one of the teams best positioned to land him.

HomeRunBaker said:

I'd be in favor of unloading the farm for George and overpaying Horford if for some reason Atlanta doesn't max him (Atl can pay him $150m vs the $111m Max another team could pay him). It's much more likely Atlanta brings back Horford and trades Teague to offset that additional cost. They can then go with Schroder as their starter and sign a relatively cheap backup.

Click to expand...

Did I miss something about George possibly being available? Why would Bird want to stick around for a rebuild in Indiana if he moved George?

NickEsasky said:

Did I miss something about George possibly being available? Why would Bird want to stick around for a rebuild in Indiana if he moved George?

Click to expand...

Nope. I was simply answering the (presumably) hypothetical question as to who i would prefer.

NickEsasky said:

Did I miss something about George possibly being available? Why would Bird want to stick around for a rebuild in Indiana if he moved George?

Click to expand...

I know Simmons has tweeted and talked about it on his podcast. Not that George is definitely available but that there are teams gearing up to make a run for him (BS specifically mentioned the Lakers trading their pick this year and D'Angelo Russell). He also said it would have to be a big time offer but that he puts nothing past Bird.

HomeRunBaker said:

Nope. I was simply answering the (presumably) hypothetical question as to who i would prefer.

Click to expand...

tbb345 said:

I know Simmons has tweeted and talked about it on his podcast. Not that George is definitely available but that there are teams gearing up to make a run for him (BS specifically mentioned the Lakers trading their pick this year and D'Angelo Russell). He also said it would have to be a big time offer but that he puts nothing past Bird.

Click to expand...

Got it, thanks. I wasn't sure if I had missed news about the Pacers trying to rebuild. I assumed that after Bird's comments after letting Vogel go, he is looking to bring in an offensive coach and reload with the current edition.

NickEsasky said:

Got it, thanks. I wasn't sure if I had missed news about the Pacers trying to rebuild. I assumed that after Bird's comments after letting Vogel go, he is looking to bring in an offensive coach and reload with the current edition.

Click to expand...

There has been talk of a complete makeover from Vogel to uniform changes, etc. I suppose there is a chance that could include George however you don't see young stars entering their prime traded unless there are strong mitigating circumstances which I don't see from where I sit.

HomeRunBaker said:

There has been talk of a complete makeover from Vogel to uniform changes, etc. I suppose there is a chance that could include George however you don't see young stars entering their prime traded unless there are strong mitigating circumstances which I don't see from where I sit.

Click to expand...

Yes. How exactly do you make that team better by trading George? I don't know. Maybe Sam Hinkie would know...

With the Bulls' ownership going out of its way to make Butler the face of the franchise, and the Thunder about to put the Spurs down, I think that the summer pickings are looking slim for Boston. I don't mind trading out of this draft if Boston is in the 3-6 range, but really want no part of Eddy Curry v2.0 in a league migrating away from those players

Oops, a visitor interrupted me mid point. I think I would prefer extra picks for 2016 to guys like Okafor (unless it's part of a three team deal for a better player). To be brutally frank I think I'd rather Noel and picks for Dunn to Okafor.

Anyway, if the Warriors do manage to beat the Thunder and Durant decide to head there this summer, that's where I would hope Boston looks, since Golden State gutting their depth to make Klay Thompson an outlet shooter seems counterproductive and Boston has the sort of young depth players to allow the Curry/Durant/Green trio to play the season on cruise control.

Eddie Jurak said:

Yes. How exactly do you make that team better by trading George? I don't know. Maybe Sam Hinkie would know...

Click to expand...

Next year you obviously don't. The Pacers were just the 7 seed and lost in the 1st round. The first question the Pacers should look at is how do you make the team much better and keep George. I'd keep him, but I could see moving him for a package of 3 Brooklyn picks and Smart. And if I'm the Celtics I'd do that if I knew I could get Durant too.

i don't think a team has ever traded the equivalent of 4 lottery picks for one player in the NBA. seems like a huge overpay. look at the packages that brought allen & KG, among other notable superstar trades...

i agree on okafor - i don't see a compelling reason to trade for him as i'm not sure he makes this team better this year or in the future. he might be worth about as much as a #3-6 this year.

Klay seems like a legit target if GS gets durant.

Buddy Hield turns out to be a legit 6'5" so he's moved up for me (I figured he was six four the way Delonte West was). He might also be the perfect piece to dangle in a Klay Thompson trade if Golden State is able to land Durant.

To sign Durant would mean gutting the entire roster in order to make Klay Thompson a 3 & D guy on the Curry/Durant Warriors. If they sign him it makes a lot more sense to break Klay up into multiple low cost players to maintain the depth.

maufman said:

Why do we think the Warriors would unload KT to clear room for what could well be a one-year rental on KD? I would assume the Warriors' objective is to keep their core together at all costs.

Click to expand...

Durant would be as much of a "one-year rental" as LeBron is in Cleveland. Technically he will opt out only for the purpose of assuring he receives the new max in 12 months. If Durant signs in Oakland he is going to be there with Curry for awhile.

If the Warriors win it all again, do they really want to mess with a good thing? What do they really gain - will they really be better? That much roster turnover (Thompson & a bunch of depth guys out; Durant & a bunch of depth guys in) surely risks some serious chemistry adjustment time.

nighthob said:

To sign Durant would mean gutting the entire roster in order to make Klay Thompson a 3 & D guy on the Curry/Durant Warriors. If they sign him it makes a lot more sense to break Klay up into multiple low cost players to maintain the depth.

Click to expand...

I thought they would just have to shed Bogut, Barnes and Livingston, so long as Ezeli is willing to wait to sign his extension until after KD is locked up. Barnes would be replaced by KD, so no loss there. Livingston is a nice piece, but not one that would cause you to forgo Durant. So then it comes down to whether you think Ezeli is up to playing the regular season minutes at Center that Bogut does.

I still think Durant signs a one and one with OKC so that he, Russ and Ibaka all hit the market at the same time.

ALiveH said:

If the Warriors win it all again, do they really want to mess with a good thing? What do they really gain - will they really be better? That much roster turnover (Thompson & a bunch of depth guys out; Durant & a bunch of depth guys in) surely risks some serious chemistry adjustment time.

Click to expand...

The odds of Durant in Oakland rise substantially if the Warriors don't repeat IF he truly wants out of OKC long term.

Swedgin said:

I thought they would just have to shed Bogut, Barnes and Livingston, so long as Ezeli is willing to wait to sign his extension until after KD is locked up. Barnes would be replaced by KD, so no loss there. Livingston is a nice piece, but not one that would cause you to forgo Durant. So then it comes down to whether you think Ezeli is up to playing the regular season minutes at Center that Bogut does.

Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure that the savings from the stretch release of Bogut are eaten up by the minimum cap holds. So far as I know both Bogut and Iguodala need to go to open up 7-9 max cap space for Durant. Or they could turn Klay Thompson into multiple lower cost players to save money that way. And if you have Durant and Curry on the team, it's not like Klay would be shooting the ball more than 8-10 times a game, and that's an awful lot of money to be spending on one of the other guys on the floor.

Swedgin said:

I still think Durant signs a one and one with OKC so that he, Russ and Ibaka all hit the market at the same time.

Click to expand...

I think it's more likely that he reups for a year because next summer there will be even more teams with cap space, the cap makes a huge jump, and he becomes a 10 year max guy (which works out to something like 29% of the total cap).

If they're willing to pay tax, wouldn't the best scenario for both teams be a S&T for Barnes?