2016 NHL Draft

cshea

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Sigh. The draft isn't until the end of June, but the lottery is Saturday. McKenzie released his top 15 today.

B's pick is 14 again. 1% chance at #1, 1.1% chance at #2 and 1.3% chance at #3.

The San Jose pick is currently 20, but it could change. If they advance to the conference finals it will end up 27-30. The highest it could get is 18 the Preds and Bolts advance to the conference finals. Go Bolts and Ducks/Preds!

Anyways, here's McKenzie's current top 15 based on his survey of scouts. The top 6 seem pretty firm, in some order (Laine has closed the gap on Matthews) but it gets volatile after that. The D prospects are all over the place.

1. Auston Matthews, F
2. Patrik Laine, F
3. Jesse Puljujarvi, F
4. Matthew Tkachuk, F
5. Pierre-Luc Dubois, F
6. Alex Nylander, F
7. Olli Juolevi, D
8. Mikhail Sergachev, D
9. Jakob Chychrun, D
10. Clayton Keller, F
11. Tyson Jost, F
12. Jake Bean, D
13. Logan Brown, F
14. Charles McAvoy, D
15. Michael McLeod, F
 

McDrew

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I want McAvoy to get a serious look by the B's. On a BU team that returned all 6 starters(including 4 prior draft picks) from the 2015 championship, he got top pairing time with Grzelcyk consistently. He's not a Chara-type giant, but he's big, uses his physicality, and improved his play consistently over the season. I absolutely think that, like JFK, he needs more time in College/AHL and some good mentoring, but he could be a legit 1B or 2A defenseman.
 

The B’s Knees

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You gotta think the B's will be picking the best defenseman available with the shape their blueline is in.
Any rankings I've seen have all had Juolevi, Sergachev, and Chychrun in the top 10, so they are out of the picture unless the B's trade up.

Bean, McAvoy, and Dante Fabbro might be topping the B's wish list.
Fabbro may be similar to Senyshyn in that he could go higher in the draft than he's ranked based on potential upside.
 

Toe Nash

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You gotta think the B's will be picking the best defenseman available with the shape their blueline is in.
Any rankings I've seen have all had Juolevi, Sergachev, and Chychrun in the top 10, so they are out of the picture unless the B's trade up.

Bean, McAvoy, and Dante Fabbro might be topping the B's wish list.
Fabbro may be similar to Senyshyn in that he could go higher in the draft than he's ranked based on potential upside.
I hope they take the BPA as it would be a surprise if a draftee steps right in and contributes (unless they win the lottery). They will have to make other moves to help the defense in 2016, most likely a trade or two.
 

TFP

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This is such a dumb production. They're trying to manufacture drama and it's just stupid.
 

The Napkin

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14 Boston
13 Carolina
12 Ottawa
11 New Jersey
10 Colorado
9 Montreal
8 Buffalo
7 Arizona
6 Calgary (down from 5)
5 Vancouver (down from 3)
4 Edmonton (down from 2)

Toronto/Columbus/Winnipeg for the top 3. After commercials. lol. Can we get to the hockey now?
 

SoxFanInPdx

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Is there even a remotely realistic chance that the B's could pry that #2 pick from Winnipeg? If so, what would be the cost for trading with them?
 

jk333

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Is there even a remotely realistic chance that the B's could pry that #2 pick from Winnipeg? If so, what would be the cost for trading with them?
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up
The 14th and 23rd* picks could get them to about pick 5 per the table above. But that is based on historical data and could vary depending on draft-able players and team preferences. IMO, the study above may overvalue mid 1st rd picks slightly.

What's your interest in the #2 pick? I'd be more interested in trying to pry Trouba from Winnipeg for both 1st rd picks depending on his contract demands.
*possibly going down even further if the Sharks keep winning
 

burstnbloom

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I like McAvoy since I got to see him a little, my bias makes me like him more than Fabbro. I hope a lot of NHL execs feel the way he does about Jacub Chychrun. That post hype fall is a good thing for the B's. He may not end up being a Norris caliber D-man, which people talked about after last year, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a bit talented top 4. If you get a top 4 D at 8 or 9, you've done well.
 

TheRealness

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I like McAvoy since I got to see him a little, my bias makes me like him more than Fabbro. I hope a lot of NHL execs feel the way he does about Jacub Chychrun. That post hype fall is a good thing for the B's. He may not end up being a Norris caliber D-man, which people talked about after last year, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a bit talented top 4. If you get a top 4 D at 8 or 9, you've done well.
I know the shine on Chychrun has worn off a bit, but the Bruins will have to trade up to get him. While Fabbro allegedly outplayed him in the WJC18, Chychrun still appears to be a top 10 pick. As long as the Bruins get one of Fabbro/McAvoy/Chychrun I will be happy. I do not want to see them go for some power forward tough to play against ass hole, but the only thing Donny appears to have done lately is draft relatively well. Maybe he can do this well enough to make up for his shitty NHL player evaluations.
 

BigMike

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I like McAvoy since I got to see him a little, my bias makes me like him more than Fabbro. I hope a lot of NHL execs feel the way he does about Jacub Chychrun. That post hype fall is a good thing for the B's. He may not end up being a Norris caliber D-man, which people talked about after last year, but he's a pretty safe bet to be a bit talented top 4. If you get a top 4 D at 8 or 9, you've done well.
I think 40% chance Chychrun is there for Boston at #14 and 50% chance the Bruins pass on him.
 

burstnbloom

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I don't think there is any chance he's there at 14. I went back and forth on Twitter with Kirk and he really doesn't think the kid is worth trading up for. I trust him far more than I trust myself on these types of matters.
 

cshea

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As we discovered last year, trading up is a fools errand anyways.

It seems like the consensus top 5 D are Olli Juolevi, Mikhail Sergachev, Jakob Chychrun, Dante Fabbro and Charlie McAvoy. I would hazard a guess that at least 1 of those players will be available at 14. If Chychrun is there, one of Fabbro/McAvoy is probably gone, and vise versa. I'm fine with staying at 14 and selecting whichever player is left. If they are all gone, then there will be a higher end forward there to sweep up.
 

The B’s Knees

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As we discovered last year, trading up is a fools errand anyways.

It seems like the consensus top 5 D are Olli Juolevi, Mikhail Sergachev, Jakob Chychrun, Dante Fabbro and Charlie McAvoy. I would hazard a guess that at least 1 of those players will be available at 14. If Chychrun is there, one of Fabbro/McAvoy is probably gone, and vise versa. I'm fine with staying at 14 and selecting whichever player is left. If they are all gone, then there will be a higher end forward there to sweep up.
I think Jake Bean has to be in the D conversation as well with his 24 goals in the WHL (I didn't verify, but possibly tops among all draft eligible defensemen).
 

The Napkin

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Is the twitter talk about Vancouver trading the #5 just Murphy being Murphy or is there another source out there that I'm missing? Wonder if Benning likes McQuaid or Miller. Or if he really likes his nephew and would like to have him around.
 

cshea

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Is the twitter talk about Vancouver trading the #5 just Murphy being Murphy or is there another source out there that I'm missing? Wonder if Benning likes McQuaid or Miller. Or if he really likes his nephew and would like to have him around.
It's from Dreger on a radio station in Canada.

http://www.todaysslapshot.com/from-the-ice/dreger-aggressive-offers-made-blue-jackets-top-pick/

He basically says 3,4,5 could be in play, but it will cost a lot.

If we are set on taking a D, I don't there there is much of a reason to move up. From what I've read, there is not much separation among the top rated D prospects. There is no clear #1 there where it's moving valuable assets to get. Keep the assets and pick whichever D is left that we like the best at 14.
 

TheRealness

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I agree that if Defense is the target, it is best to just sit back and see who falls.

However, I would need a lot of Kleenex if they traded up into the top 5 and picked up Matt Tkachuck. My whole "don't want power forwards" doesn't apply to him. He's quite good and very talented. He would be a guy I'd be very interested in. Probably have to move up to 4 to get him, as it appears the top three is pretty set with Matthews, Laine, Other Finnish guy beginning with a "P" that I can't remember.
 

PedroSpecialK

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My hard-on this draft is for Markus Niemeläinen.

I don't know if he'll be around come pick 29/30, but he'd be an overdraft at 14... lots of mocks have him going to Boston with their 2nd first rounder, but I can see a team jumping at fleet-of-foot 6'7 defenseman.
 

TheRealness

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My hard-on this draft is for Markus Niemeläinen.

I don't know if he'll be around come pick 29/30, but he'd be an overdraft at 14... lots of mocks have him going to Boston with their 2nd first rounder, but I can see a team jumping at fleet-of-foot 6'7 defenseman.
Intriguing guy. I don't follow junior hockey closely other than stat watching and the occasional highlight,but that Saginaw team has words like "gong show" thrown around to describe them. Personally, I would be fine with them going Defense/defense if they had on to both picks, but if DeBrincat is still there at 29 (he won't be), I wouldn't mind them taking a talent like him. He's a guy in the Johnny hockey mold, but has an abundance of skill.

Two interesting draft/trade related notes from Kirk in that article: (1) he thinks the Bruins will try to trade the Sharks pick, and (2) he seems convinced the Bruins will move McQuaid or Miller and doesn't envision them playing together given their redundancy on the roster. I think the former is likely, Donnie Boy is likely shopping that Sharks pick (if not the 14) looking for an upgrade on defense. The second I depressingly think is wish casting, but it made me a little happier to read Kirk write it.

I am less than enthusiastic about Donny's potential to make a good trade. If a Bruins notification comes up on my phone I instinctively flinch. I just hope we can all get through this together.
 

TheRealness

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I would be pleased with that. In the mocks, Jake Bean seems to be rising up draft boards. He's definitely in play for the 14th pick, but I prefer Fabbro out of the Fabbro/Bean/McAvoy/checyhrun group.
 

burstnbloom

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I'd be very happy with Kirk's mock. I've spent a lot of time with Kirk's coverage this year and he has me so jazzed up about Fabbro that I will be VERY disappointed if they don't pick him over McAvoy or Bean.
 

cshea

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Sweeney's pre-draft press conference:

- Going to take 1 more run at Loui, probably not happening.
- Had talked to NSH about a number of things, including Vesey's rights. Side stepped cuz of tampering and all, but clear they'd be there if he makes it to 8/15
- Has talked to teams about moving a roster player out for picks this weekend.
- Lots of talks, would move 14 or 29 in right deal
- Gus and Trotman are headed to UFA
- For some baffling reason he is talking to Liles and Stempniak
 

cshea

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Draft Day!

Here are the current league-wide storylines and rumors...

- PK Subban is the biggest name on the market. Bergevin didn't exactly shoot anything down, they're definitely listening on him. I personally think the Oilers are the only team that could put a legitimate offer together if the Habs do get crazy enough to deal him. Maybe the Avs too.
- CBJ and #3. Seems like a good chance that pick gets moved. Puljujarvi is the expected player there, but McKenzie has said he doesn't think the Jets are completely locked into Laine and could surprise. So keep an eye on that. Amazingly enough, CBJ is in bad shape cap wise (seriously, go check out their GeneralFanager page. Fugly). ~$4 million in space but they have to sign Seth Jones. Some talk out there of #3 + a bad contract like Hartnell could be something they consider.
- Lots of Cam Fowler rumors. Buffalo and the Habs are the 2 teams linked to him now. We'll see if either blink and give up their first rounders tonight for him.
- Shattenkirk. B's linked there, STL may give permission for him to talk extension with an acquiring team.

Those seem to be the big rumors as of now, but I'm sure there will be more as the day goes on.
 

kenneycb

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Kulikov on the market and B's reported as interested. $4.33M cap hit next year and a UFA after.

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