Protecting the Shields -- The Nick Cafardo Thread

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The Gray Eagle

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Haha, just reading his "season-changing event" thing from yesterday. So Rasmus might have changed the Astros season with his grand slam on Saturday. And then hits a much more dramatic HR the very next game. But the Astros lose a tough one anyway. Guess their season wasn't turned around magically. And then Ellsbury's steal of home might have changed the Yankees season, because they won the very next day. Of course they got demolished the day after that and were out of the game by the first inning. Oh well.

What a load of nonsense he is peddling. Something happened! That might change everything! It didn't? Oh. Never mind then. But later things will change, so then we will look back at some other thing that changed everything! Because a 162-game baseball season is always changed by a single event that happens in April somehow. Because one thing happens first, so obviously that directly causes everything that happens afterward.

So he goes to Farrell with his dumb idea that the Red Sox need a big event to "inspire their confidence." Farrell is a grownup, so he basically tells Cafardo that his idea is stupid. "“Consistent pitching,” Farrell said. “That’s what we need. That will enable us to do what we want to do.”

Does that cause Cafardo to rethink his idea? Of course not. He quotes Farrell and spends a paragraph going in that direction, but then just stops and goes back to pushing the narrative he invented. There have been no extraordinary events so far, he says, then lists some big events that have happened, like Betts hitting 2 triples and Ortiz homering. They just didn't magically fix the team and cause a long winning streak, so they don't count.

Then he just blabs about of bunch of stuff that happened this year and in the past, that isn't really connected to anything, and then talks about how the Red Sox struggled in the Astros series. Which they ended up winning 2-1 on the road.

And then finishes by saying that something dramatic has to happen to inspire the team, but that Farrell getting fired wouldn't be it. Why not? Who knows, it just wouldn't. The end.

Cafardo is always trying to invent some simple-minded storyline to explain things and make everything into a morality play. It's like how little kids see the complex world when they aren't old enough to understand it.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Cafardo very much wants to be the "voice of the Red Sox" and wants to be connected to them. If the Sox win the World Series this year, he wants to be referred to as the guy who first (this is very important, that he's first) person to recognize that Dustin Pedroia's crotch itch was what propelled Boston to a 12-game winning streak and a strangle hold on the division. So every day, like Gray Eagle pointed out, Cafardo points out something completely innocuous and writes, "This event, right here, is what made the Red Sox' 2016 season."

It's like standing at the foot of the ocean and saying, "This is the highest the tide will ever go today!" every time the water rolls in. Eventually you're going to be correct but God damn is it a really dumb and tedious thing to do.
 

joe dokes

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And then finishes by saying that something dramatic has to happen to inspire the team, but that Farrell getting fired wouldn't be it. Why not? Who knows, it just wouldn't. The end.
"I don't know?"
"Third base."
 

Granite Sox

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Nauseating:
It doesn’t always look pretty, but it’s an effective combination for the Red Sox at that position. In a dirt dog ranking system, Hanigan would rank pretty high.
Commitment! Guts! Try hardieness! Early birdieness! Uniform laundering! Nutrition! We feel you rank... highly.
They are tied for 25th in baseball with only 13 homers through 18 games. They are tied with Pittsburgh for the most doubles with 47. But as we’ve often said here, home runs are better than doubles.
Who knew? We knew! We even said it... often!
Teams are beginning their coverages of the Red Sox feeling they’re one team that might need to make some moves at some point.
A team... that might... at some point. WTF. If they do... we told you so first!

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/04/25/hard-not-like-way-ryan-hanigan-plays-ball/t17S535FJAEyBTS6K4k4YK/story.html
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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You know what's better than HRs or doubles? Slugging percentage. The Sox are 3rd in the AL this year in SLG. 2nd in OPS. If you want to simplify things for Nick's cottage cheese brain, the Sox also lead the league in batting average.

Nick is a Scottish Terrier with a bone. The infantile infatuation with home runs is his bone, and he's gonna chew on it well past the point of any return.
 

joe dokes

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You know what's better than HRs or doubles? Slugging percentage. The Sox are 3rd in the AL this year in SLG. 2nd in OPS. If you want to simplify things for Nick's cottage cheese brain, the Sox also lead the league in batting average.

Nick is a Scottish Terrier with a bone. The infantile infatuation with home runs is his bone, and he's gonna chew on it well past the point of any return.

Even SimplerNick: You know how they decide who wins games? They add up the Runs. And the Red Sox have the most of those. (ADDED BONUS: Guys who score runs are usually the hungriest and grittiest of guys).
 

TheoShmeo

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Cafardo very much wants to be the "voice of the Red Sox" and wants to be connected to them. If the Sox win the World Series this year, he wants to be referred to as the guy who first (this is very important, that he's first) person to recognize that Dustin Pedroia's crotch itch was what propelled Boston to a 12-game winning streak and a strangle hold on the division. So every day, like Gray Eagle pointed out, Cafardo points out something completely innocuous and writes, "This event, right here, is what made the Red Sox' 2016 season."

It's like standing at the foot of the ocean and saying, "This is the highest the tide will ever go today!" every time the water rolls in. Eventually you're going to be correct but God damn is it a really dumb and tedious thing to do.
Cafardo added a parting shot in today's column generally along these lines:
It was Boston’s first shutout of the year. For a team that has struggled to pitch, it was a big moment this early in the season.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/04/25/tom-glavine-liked-what-saw-from-pitchers-duel/7KQrQOqvbbjAwcMyMm0RaJ/story.html
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It's like he's still covering football. In the NFL if you play great and shut an opponent out, it really can be a harbinger of things to come; there's only 16 games after all. In baseball, the season is 10 times as long, one game means almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. Nick has yet to figure this out. He's only been on the Sox beat more than a decade, so eventually maybe he'll understand this.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Nick's track record continues its unblemished run. From his Sunday Notes:

9. David Murphy, OF, Rochester — Don’t expect Murphy to stay down in Triple A for long. He is basically getting the rust off and then should be up with the Twins, who need some revamping with their outfield defense. Murphy has only three hits in 25 at-bats, but as soon as the 34-year-old veteran picks it up, it shouldn’t be long before he is up.
Murphy retired today.
 

joe dokes

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Nick's track record continues its unblemished run. From his Sunday Notes:



Murphy retired today.

IIRC, didn't Nick "report" back in ST that Murphy would retire rather than go to AAA. Then he went to AAA. Then he retired just as Nick was pushing him back to the majors. Its like Murphy read his columns and just decided to fuck with him.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I think Nick wrote that Murphy wouldn't go to AAA with the Sox. He may well have felt that it was OK to go to AAA with the Twins because they're terrible and he might have a shot to get called up early. Of course his retirement was prompted by the fact that the Twins just passed him over for a callup, so he is undoubtedly cooked.

Of course did Nick have any insight into any of this? Of course not.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It's like he's still covering football. In the NFL if you play great and shut an opponent out, it really can be a harbinger of things to come; there's only 16 games after all. In baseball, the season is 10 times as long, one game means almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. Nick has yet to figure this out. He's only been on the Sox beat more than a decade, so eventually maybe he'll understand this.
Chasing the ghost of the '04 team and July 24. Of course, those Sox split their next 10 and didn't truly get hot until a couple weeks later but everybody knows that Varitek himself used the time off from his ejection to begin designing the WS rings that very night.
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
Elsewhere, Nick has a friend.
Girardi says that if he were Commissioner, he would ban infield shifts.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-manager-joe-girardi-ban-shift-commissioner-article-1.2615626
"“I think it’s an illegal defense, like basketball,” Girardi said. “Guard your man; guard your spot. If I was commissioner, they would be illegal."

Which is it Joe: guard your man, or guard your spot? Because if you shift, you ARE guarding your man: that's the whole point of the shift, guarding the specific person who's batting.

(I'm thinking that if Nick had been around when the forward pass was first gaining popularity, he'd have ended up in a sanitarium.)
 
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bluefenderstrat

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Well, back in the olden days, the batter could call for the pitcher to throw the ball high or low, inside or out, to his liking. I'm sure Nick simply prefers the purity of 1860s Base Ball and would like to see the modern game honor its past.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I thought it was hilarious last night when the bufoon(s) on MLBTV kept bringing up Girardi's disdain for the shift, without mentioning that he elects to use the shift, a hell of a lot more than Farrell.

The shift thing always boggles me because RHH have a "natural" shift on the left side of the infield. Why shouldn't LHH be subject to the same on the right side?
 

E5 Yaz

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1. Yankees manager Joe Girardi merely said what many baseball people say off the record. He hates the shift. Girardi watched Nathan Eovaldi get robbed of a no-hitter because a ball that normally would have been fielded by the shortstop trickled through the shift. Girardi said if he were commissioner he would outlaw shifts. Bravo. The game has become distorted with positions left unoccupied. You can’t do that at pitcher, catcher or batting, so why should you be able to do it at other positions? Hopefully, over time, batters take their free hits to the unoccupied side of the shift and shifts die a natural death. When the Astros shift on Mookie Betts and then pitch him away, you wonder what the heck is going on out there. Let’s play baseball.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/baseball/2016/04/30/white-sox-have-quickly-turned-page/XqzGZ9eNPliSqcxxR0xATJ/story.html
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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He hates the shift. Girardi watched Nathan Eovaldi get robbed of a no-hitter because a ball that normally would have been fielded by the shortstop trickled through the shift. Girardi said if he were commissioner he would outlaw shifts.
Man, I feel for New York Yankee manager Joe Girardi. If there was only some way that New York manager Joe Girardi could have helped New York Yankee pitcher Nathan Eovaldi not get robbed of a no-hitter due to the shift set in motion by New York Yankee manager Joe Girardi in the New York Yankee infield defense. But what could New York Yankee manager Joe Girardi do? He was mandated by the commissioner of the world to make that shift. ARGH! What a Gordian knot! How to untangle it?

This is like The Kitchen Table Killer* getting arrested for hacking up 35 prostitutes with steak knives and blaming the makers of kitchen cutlery and good table manners "God damn it, if we could only rip our food with our teeth, I wouldn't have been tempted to butcher those women with steak knives. Obama should seriously investigate making dinner cutlery illegal!"
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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It really sucks that the Globe's lead baseball writer can't see how shifts have actually IMPROVED the game, adding in a new layer of strategy and athleticism required for winning baseball.

The Sox this weekend were clearly beating the shift on a regular basis, with JBJ, Shaw, etc., going the other way on purpose and picking up easy hits. The Sox are clearly combatting the shift on purpose, and are well designed for it, with players who handle the bat well and aren't one-trick ponies.

This is interesting stuff: Which teams are well designed to beat the shift? How often is the shift effective vs. ineffective? Are teams just playing "me-too" and not actually analyzing the data correctly?

It's a new thing to talk about, analyze, etc. But, instead, we just get the same whining we got when people had the audacity to start looking at OPS instead of BA.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I heard Bob Costas on MLB Network before the Sox game on Saturday (I think) talk about the shift. Harold Reynolds basically asked him about Girardi's comments and how the shift kind of sucks, right? And Costas said (and I don't have the numbers in front of me) that basically that after 2012 managers started using defensive shifts more than ever. You would think that the batting average of the league would go down with so many batters hitting into a shift (and I think that this is a good instance of you using BA as a go to stat) but actually batting averages have risen in the 13, 14 and 15 seasons*.

Small sample size, I know, but it also shows that shifts aren't killing the game. I like Bob Costas a lot more than many people on this board, but we're not talking about Bill James here. He's an older, more mainstream announcer and he figured this out. It's amazing to me that Cafardo can't or won't.

* Harold Reynold's reaction to this information was "Oh? Huh."
 

tims4wins

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Well BABIP would be the correct stat, not BA, and it looks like this:
2010: .297
2011: .295
2012: .297
2013: .297
2014: .299

Can't find 2015 at the moment. But clearly shifts are not driving down BABIP.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Costas actually did say BABIP because he said it's traditionally been in the range that you've listed and it hasn't gone down, only up.

I was half paying attention. ;)
 

TFisNEXT

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TheoShmeo

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Perhaps part of the reason why unthinking dimwits believe that the shift would have an impact on batting average and BABIP (if they knew what it is) is that the shift tends to take away a lot of sharply hit balls that look like they should be hits and results in a fair amount of "excuse me" hits when batters go the other way (either on purpose or not). The former stand out a lot more than the latter but I think it's fair to say that the shift taketh away and the shift giveth.
 

timlinin8th

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Perhaps part of the reason why unthinking dimwits believe that the shift would have an impact on batting average and BABIP (if they knew what it is) is that the shift tends to take away a lot of sharply hit balls that look like they should be hits and results in a fair amount of "excuse me" hits when batters go the other way (either on purpose or not).
If shifts aren't affecting BABIP but are taking away "sharply hit" balls in play in lieu of "weak hits", is it having an appreciable impact on SLG% or XBH? This would all make a great article, but instead we get "SHIFT BAD! Go back to old timey baseball, and get that shortstop out of the infield! Its creating too many double plays!"
 

CoffeeNerdness

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The sky is falling after two loses to the Yankees. They could have had their "defining moment!!!" but they couldn't harness their Kulpa fueled anger.

After the surge in Chicago, beating a first-place team two out of three, losing consecutive games to a team that’s 11-17 was, to use an overstated word in these parts, deflating. You wonder if they’re starting to awaken a sleeping giant with the losses on a day when the Yankees still played without Alex Rodriguez, who is on the disabled list, and Jacoby Ellsbury, who has a sore hip.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/05/07/red-sox-confidence-evaporates-with-second-straight-loss-yankees/6E3EWg57i2gdEkU8BwtIgK/story.html

From Sunday Notes:
5. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP, Diamondbacks — The elimination of a cutter and more emphasis on a slider is why De La Rosa, who was demoted to the bullpen in April, is back in the rotation. De La Rosa allowed four runs in 5⅔ innings in his last start, but the Diamondbacks feel he has turned the corner.
He wasn't demoted. They used him in extra innings emergency situations.
 
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John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I'm really not trying to be a dick here, but when was the last time the Yankees were considered a "giant"? 2009? Maybe 2010?

Cafardo is clueless.
 

Humphrey

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Nick seems to think it's 2003 and he's still covering the Pats with all these "momentum turning" wins and losses and what not.

The Yanks made the playoffs last year. Odds are even if they don't this year they aren't going to play .360 ball for the entire season.

The only thing in the article worth mentioning is what's going on with Price....if this small sample is what his season is going to be like, then, yes, the Sox have a big problem on their hands.
 

TheoShmeo

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Obviously the back-to-back losses to the Yanks devastated the Sox wouldn't you say?:p
I sent Cafardo an e-mail with some light teasing about that and his false dichotomy regarding analytics and old fashioned scouting.

To say that his responses were defensive and confused would be a an insult to both concepts. He immediately jumped to the nowhere to be found in my e-mail conclusion that I was suggesting that the Sox were winning because of saber metrics. Huh? And he claimed that "None of your teams have won a World Series." By "mine" I take it he meant teams that use saber metrics.

Cough, 04, 07 and 13 Red Sox, cough.
 
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joe dokes

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I sent Cafardo an e-mail with some light teasing about that and his false dichotomy regarding analytics and old fashioned scouting.

To say that his responses were defensive and confused would be a an insult to both concepts. He immediately jumped to the nowhere to be found in my e-mail conclusion that I was suggesting that the Sox were winning because of saber metrics. Huh? And he claimed that "None of your teams have won a World Series." By "mine" I take it he meant teams that use saber metrics.

Cough, 04, 07 and 13 Red Sox, cough.

The Giants have won a WS or 2 lately
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18795

As have the Cardinals:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32471/how-the-cardinals-use-sabermetrics

In 2004 the Cardinals made a conscious effort to build an analytics department. A baseball team can’t become sabermetric-minded overnight; it takes time to establish and then time to work out the kinks.
[snip]
He also utilizes WAR, a linear weights statistic that when used to evaluate batters combines batting, fielding, baserunning and replacement level by position.
"There is no perfect stat, but when you look at trying to define Wins Above Replacement, it is a very simple place to grab information and get a feel for it," he said.
There are several versions of WAR out there, and while he looks at all of them, he does have a favorite.
"I use our own internal system, because that's what I'm most familiar with and also in the past five, six years I feel like we've made very good decisions based on it," Mozeliak said. "My confidence in it is very strong."
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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You should ask him what he meant by the "your" in the "None of your teams have won a World Series." phrase. Though I have a pretty sure he meant what you think he meant. Which is just fucking stupid because how many baseball FOs don't have an analytics department? Even the Royals have someone that does that shit, right?
 

TheoShmeo

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You should ask him what he meant by the "your" in the "None of your teams have won a World Series." phrase. Though I have a pretty sure he meant what you think he meant. Which is just fucking stupid because how many baseball FOs don't have an analytics department? Even the Royals have someone that does that shit, right?
I think he meant what you think he meant....

Here's a bit more of what he wrote:

I'm glad Red Sox are doing less of it [shifting] and that John Henry said the team is moving away from
analytics. Just look around Mlb. Must if the successful teams
emphasize traditional baseball. None of your teams have won a World
Series.
PS: Until his last e-mail, he was reasonably incoherent. The last one was on a lap top or desk top, and the first several -- including the snippet above -- were on his iPhone. MAYBE he was moving a little too fast until the last one....
 
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