The Really Early Question About Stephen Wright Post E-Rod Return

Snodgrass'Muff

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There is literally zero excuse to take Steven Wright out of the rotation until he starts makimg mistakes -- absolutely none whatsoever. Especially in favor of Joe freaking kelly who hasn't even come close to earning that kind of special consideration. There is no reason at all whatsoever to believe that Joe Kelly currently deserves a rotation spot over Steven Wright under any standard of measurement that is actually sane. That may change, but until it does, let's see if Kelly can turn his excellent stuff into a high class power reliever, the way Andrew Miller (eventually) did. That's a better use of both Wright and Kelly based on what we know right now.

I'm sure Wright would be willing to go to the pen, but I'm not convinced it's the best use of either man. I think the correct move is to hold Kelly in the bullpen because Kelly in the bullpen, if he could adjust to a bullpen role, is a far more valuable commodity, as I attempted to illustrate with the reference to another power lefty who couldn't figure it out in a starting role.
Before making such bold statements, perhaps you should take a moment to open up Kelly's baseball-reference or fangraphs page and check to see which hand he throws with.

Plus, there's really not a lot of evidence that Kelly is likely to be any better in the pen. That said, unlike when that piece was written, the Sox are not out of contention and Wright has been incredible so far. If the team is looking at all of their pitchers being healthy and with Wright, Owens and Rodriguez all performing, the best way to control assets until someone can be moved for a good package is for Kelly to move to the pen and Owens to be demoted. Of course, there's a pretty good chance this works itself out before we get to that point.
 

FinanceAdvice

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I read recently that the Red Sox for the first 20 games set an all-time record since 1900 for most K's at 210. On closer examination, they also have the most BB's in AL (82). Wight and Kelly are the main culprits with 11 and 10, respectively. However, Wright has 25 K's to Kelly's 11. Add in the Wright WHIP of 1.14 to Kelly's 2.77, Kelly's propensity for breaking down and Wright's avg. of .196 compared to Kelly's .368 leads me to keep Wright in SR with Kelly to the bull pen.

The season is a marathon and things could change with role reversals but for the time being now I'd have Wright in SR.
 

shaggydog2000

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Coming inti the season he was considered a possible 5 or long man. So far in SSS he has pitched like a bonafide 1. The longer he keeps results going that put his season stats within the range of where they are now he becomes a 1-2. If he does it next season he's an absolute legit 1 or 2. For now with the SSS he's a 4/5 pitching like a 1.

With the ability to change speeds on the knuckler he could very well be at least a 2 if he can stay consistent for the most part over a full season.
There's not a ton of data to go on, but his FIP and XFIP are higher than his current ERA by a lot. The FIP is still very good (3.30), but the XFIP is more like a #4 starter (4.26). And the difference is mostly the HR/FB rate being normalized for XFIP. He's currently at 4% where the average is around 11 or 12%. For his career he is at 10% now, and he was at 12% last year. I don't think he has any special home run preventing ability, so I think the XFIP is probably a better representation of his true performance so far. I think he is on a hot streak that combines pitching well and some good luck. The only stat of his that should be starting to stabilize after the 110 batters he's faced is k%, which has been good, so you never know where his numbers are going to end up 3-4 months from now. But I think his performance makes it hard to make up any excuse to take him out of the rotation, and I see being a solid back end of the rotation guy for years as his floor. Kelly I can't say that about.
 

phenweigh

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There's not a ton of data to go on, but his FIP and XFIP are higher than his current ERA by a lot. The FIP is still very good (3.30), but the XFIP is more like a #4 starter (4.26). And the difference is mostly the HR/FB rate being normalized for XFIP. He's currently at 4% where the average is around 11 or 12%. For his career he is at 10% now, and he was at 12% last year. I don't think he has any special home run preventing ability, so I think the XFIP is probably a better representation of his true performance so far. I think he is on a hot streak that combines pitching well and some good luck. The only stat of his that should be starting to stabilize after the 110 batters he's faced is k%, which has been good, so you never know where his numbers are going to end up 3-4 months from now. But I think his performance makes it hard to make up any excuse to take him out of the rotation, and I see being a solid back end of the rotation guy for years as his floor. Kelly I can't say that about.
I vaguely recall a study that showed knuckleballers have a lower HR/FB rate than conventional pitchers. If true, then XFIP may not be the best stat for predicting Wright's success going forward.
 

czar

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I vaguely recall a study that showed knuckleballers have a lower HR/FB rate than conventional pitchers. If true, then XFIP may not be the best stat for predicting Wright's success going forward.
League average HR/FB% is between 9-10%. HR/FB% for knuckleballers since stats are available in 2002 (mainly Wakefield and Dickey) is 9.8%. So that aspect of xFIP doesn't seem too off.

I think the bigger issue (and I can't find the research right now -- might not exist) is that some pitchers tend to induce weak contact moreso than others (so the assumption in FIP/xFIP of essentially league average BABIP is somewhat flawed). This used to be the case with Matt Cain and likely happens with knuckleballers. For example, the average BABIP for all knuckleballers since 2002 is .280. League average over that time is .294.

So FIP and xFIP likely are a bit bearish on Wright, but not due to HR/FB, but overzealous BABIP regression (which is baked into the coefficients indirectly).
 

phenweigh

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Thanks for the correction/clarification of my vague recollection. It seems a little weird to me that if knuckleballers do indeed tend to induce more weak contact, that would be consistently expressed by both BABIP and HR/FB rate. Anyhoo, I'm bearish on the idea that FIP and xFIP may be bearish on Wright.
 

czar

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Thanks for the correction/clarification of my vague recollection. It seems a little weird to me that if knuckleballers do indeed tend to induce more weak contact, that would be consistently expressed by both BABIP and HR/FB rate. Anyhoo, I'm bearish on the idea that FIP and xFIP may be bearish on Wright.
Yeah, I agree that it seems logical at first blush -- my guess is that knuckleballs have a wider spread in batted ball results for fly balls. I.e., they do induce weaker contact at that end of the spectrum. However, perhaps "bad" knuckleballs are hit for HRs (on FB) more than "bad" other pitches to offset this.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Thanks for the correction/clarification of my vague recollection. It seems a little weird to me that if knuckleballers do indeed tend to induce more weak contact, that would be consistently expressed by both BABIP and HR/FB rate. Anyhoo, I'm bearish on the idea that FIP and xFIP may be bearish on Wright.
There's a clear survivor's bias inherent in knuckleball data. Call it the "Charlie Zink Syndome" perhaps.

Knuckleballers who don't induce more weak contact, don't get too many chances.
 

phenweigh

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Yeah, I agree that it seems logical at first blush -- my guess is that knuckleballs have a wider spread in batted ball results for fly balls. I.e., they do induce weaker contact at that end of the spectrum. However, perhaps "bad" knuckleballs are hit for HRs (on FB) more than "bad" other pitches to offset this.
Another thought I had is that occasionally when a knuckleballer decides to sneak a batting-practice fastball by a hitter and the hitter is guessing fastball ... it gets crushed.
 

simplicio

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Yeah, I agree that it seems logical at first blush -- my guess is that knuckleballs have a wider spread in batted ball results for fly balls. I.e., they do induce weaker contact at that end of the spectrum. However, perhaps "bad" knuckleballs are hit for HRs (on FB) more than "bad" other pitches to offset this.
It may also be, at least partially, that their fastballs are really slow and easier to go yard on if the hitter's ready for one.

Edit: oops, likewise.
 

chrisfont9

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Before making such bold statements, perhaps you should take a moment to open up Kelly's baseball-reference or fangraphs page and check to see which hand he throws with.

Plus, there's really not a lot of evidence that Kelly is likely to be any better in the pen. That said, unlike when that piece was written, the Sox are not out of contention and Wright has been incredible so far. If the team is looking at all of their pitchers being healthy and with Wright, Owens and Rodriguez all performing, the best way to control assets until someone can be moved for a good package is for Kelly to move to the pen and Owens to be demoted. Of course, there's a pretty good chance this works itself out before we get to that point.
The question for Kelly-to-the-pen is probably less about his effectiveness and more about health, right? He keeps going to the DL including this latest rather serious one. Maybe they think that workload will be better for him in the long run. Personally I've been disappointed in Kelly since he lost the national anthem staredown against Scott Van Slyke.
 

geoduck no quahog

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My impressions of Kelly are limited to what is written about him. I don't have enough experience to judge him with my eyes. Of course W/L is a stupid stat, but it's not totally irrelevant to picking a point last year when he seemed to turn a corner. His performance this year doesn't mean much (although I quote one of Lauber's opinions below). Kelly's future value has no bearing on Wright's ability. The Red Sox should pitch the best 5 starters they have and we all know that at least 6 starters are inevitable during a season. I'm not giving up on Kelly.

Some writings that lead me to this:

Lauber
...Kelly's evolution from thrower to pitcher began to take root during the final two months of last season, when he started relying more on his offspeed pitches. And in holding the Orioles to two runs in five bend-but-don't-break innings of a 4-2 victory, Kelly demonstrated that he can have success with his changeup and curveball.
Kelly pitched to a 3.08 (NL) ERA his first 200 innings. He turned into a pumpkin after being traded to the Red Sox. He sucked through July last year but seemed to turn a corner starting in August. I think he must pitch stupid. He has a good fastball but doesn't strike people out. If it's his brain and not his body, something like that can be fixed.

Maddon had this to say about Arrieta last year:
"Fastball command," Maddon said. "Almost every time you find a young, strong-armed pitcher that struggles, I would say almost 100 percent of the time it's because he doesn't know where his fastball is going. It could be a good number, like 94, 95, 96 (mph), whatever, but eventually, if he can't command that pitch, the other pitches are moot. The hitter doesn't have to honor them nearly as much. And if you start having to throw those other pitches too often and then get behind in counts and then here comes the fastball, fastball gets crushed...

..."I've talked about David, David Price," Maddon said. "David, once he learned where his fastball was going, that's what really jettisoned David."

...Maddon also added about Arrieta, "I saw him in Baltimore, three, four, five innings, man, lights out, then all of a sudden, it would go away."
Enough. You get where I'm coming from. Wright has been fantastic. I'd put it this way: Wright's floor is much higher than Kelly's. Kelly's ceiling is higher than Wright's. I understand parking Kelly in AAA. I don't think he should go to the bullpen. I like both pitchers. Let's leave it at that.
 
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Drek717

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Kelly pitched to a 3.08 (NL) ERA his first 200 innings. He turned into a pumpkin after being traded to the Red Sox. He sucked through July last year but seemed to turn a corner starting in August. I think he must pitch stupid. He has a good fastball but doesn't strike people out. If it's his brain and not his body, something like that can be fixed.
He also posted FIP and xFIP numbers above 4 every single season as a starter, but thanks the crazy strand rates and depressed HR/9 of those years reversing he now is pitching worse than what his FIP/xFIP would indicate, while those metrics remained in the 4's.

He didn't turn into a pumpkin after being traded, the horseshoe fell out of his ass shortly before and the Red Sox didn't seem to mind if it meant they got to take on Allen Craig's contract in exchange for that burdensome John Lackey.

Maddon had this to say about Arrieta last year:


Enough. You get where I'm coming from. Wright has been fantastic. I'd put it this way: Wright's floor is much higher than Kelly's. Kelly's ceiling is higher than Wright's. I understand parking Kelly in AAA. I don't think he should go to the bullpen. I like both pitchers. Let's leave it at that.
Your point about Arrieta would hold a lot more water if Kelly had, at any point since AA, been within a reasonable approximation of Arrieta's 8 K/9. Arrieta was mowing people down in AAA, got called up and had control issues exposed at the ML level his first two years, then in 2012 was showing all the signs of putting it together but with poor BABIP luck and HR/9 rates. The Orioles let him go to the Cubs who gave him an extra year of polish in AAA and come 2014 he just started torching people.

If that was really Joe Kelly's path the best thing the Sox could do woudl be to option him to AAA for the season and just let him sort shit out for a year. He was rushed to the majors in the first place despite being a HS>College pitching convert and a College>Pros starting convert.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Thanks. Good points. I'm amending my prediction.

I think most of us could agree that parking him in Pawtucket until/unless the performance or health of one of the other 5 demands a recall. He hasn't made the case yet for pushing Wright to the pen, meaning he doesn't get an automatic call-up once he's healthy.
 

keninten

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At this point I`d rather see Buchholz to the BP. Wouldn`t the Sox have been better off not exercising his option? When an option is picked up are they stuck with the full amount for this year? If not, letting him go would get them closer to getting under the $189 cap. His $13 million seems pretty wasted so far. Kelly and Wright seem to have more upside than Buchholz. Giving Elias, Owens, and Johnson spot starts the rest of the year seems better than Buchholz also. Completely speculating here but Buchholz seems to need to get his head screwed back on more than anyone on the team not named Sandoval.
 

Rasputin

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At this point I`d rather see Buchholz to the BP.
Can Buchholz even pitch out of the bullpen? It doesn't look like he's had a relief appearance in the majors since 2008.

Wouldn`t the Sox have been better off not exercising his option? When an option is picked up are they stuck with the full amount for this year?
No and yes.

If not, letting him go would get them closer to getting under the $189 cap. His $13 million seems pretty wasted so far. Kelly and Wright seem to have more upside than Buchholz. Giving Elias, Owens, and Johnson spot starts the rest of the year seems better than Buchholz also.
I think you should reacquaint yourself with Buchholz' upside.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml

Good Buchholz is a lot better than we could reasonably expect out of anyone likely to replace him. If we were to get rid of him at any point this season, it would be after Rodriguez and preferably someone else, too, is healthy and pitching well.

Completely speculating here but Buchholz seems to need to get his head screwed back on more than anyone on the team not named Sandoval.
I would not remotely be surprised if he goes on the DL when Rodriguez comes off it.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 

keninten

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"
Can Buchholz even pitch out of the bullpen? It doesn't look like he's had a relief appearance in the majors since 2008.
He doesn`t look good as a starter. I was a Buchholz fanboy for a long time. Maybe some low leverage innings can help him or even give him the kick in the ass he might need.

I think you should reacquaint yourself with Buchholz' upside.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml
He doesn`t look consistent at all. Except for 2010 even year Buchholz seems to really suck. Some is injury but that`s alot of his problem. He`s going to turn 32 in August, how much longer will his upside be around?

Good Buchholz is a lot better than we could reasonably expect out of anyone likely to replace him. If we were to get rid of him at any point this season, it would be after Rodriguez and preferably someone else, too, is healthy and pitching well.
You can`t have too much pitching I guess. Kelly and Owens don`t look like his replacement but I`d rather watch them than Buchholz at this point. When he pitches I`m really hoping for the offense to light up the scoreboard for them to have a chance to win. If we did have another injury to a SP we could be in real trouble.

I would not remotely be surprised if he goes on the DL when Rodriguez comes off it.
At this point this could be the best case scenario
 
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geoduck no quahog

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Buchholz has a career WHIP of 1.49 in April and 1.43 in May.

The rest of the season reads: 1.05, 1.25, 1.27 and 1.19

The trade deadline is the time to panic.
 

luckysox

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Buchholz won't get released or sent to AAA. Yes, he could find the DL with something "strained," but the guy's upside is so freaking high that it is impossible to overlook it in search of consistency. When he is good, he is really, really good. Like, better than the rest of the staff good. I, too, am frustrated by things like walking JACE PETERSON 6,431 times in a game, but if they were sick of searching for Good Buchholz, they'd not have picked up the option. That was a commitment to working to find Good Buchholz for the rest of the season, even if Good Buchholz is hard to find. He'll get lots of rope.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Buchholz in the pen makes no sense. He has no experience there, as Ras noted, and perhaps his biggest strength as a pitcher is the depth of his repertoire; if the cutter isn't working on a given day, the curve or the change will be. And on a day when most or all of his pitches are working, he can attack hitters differently each time they face him. This is when he dominates. So it should be no surprise that Clay has a strong pattern of getting better as he works through a game:

Times through the order / OPS
1x .727
2x .712
3x .655

The first two numbers there are very close to 2016 AL average (.739 and .710). But a league-average pitcher gets markedly worse on the third time through (.768). So putting Clay in the pen effectively removes the part of his game that makes him an above-average pitcher. And this is even assuming that he would adapt well to the bullpen routine and rhythm.

I think the Sox will give him at least May to snap out of this, as long as he can continue to go out and throw 5-6 innings as he has been doing. If he doesn't snap out of it, and there isn't a physical problem, then I think the most likely way out is a trade, maybe to an NL team with a pitcher's park.
 

JimD

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In my mind, Clay Buchholz should essentially be considered the same as a reclamation project right now. Yes, his upside is 'freaking high' but so is his propensity for injury and he will be 32 years old in a few months. Counting on him to pitch effectively in a late-season role is a lottery ticket bet at best.
 

Devizier

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In my mind, Clay Buchholz should essentially be considered the same as a reclamation project right now. Yes, his upside is 'freaking high' but so is his propensity for injury and he will be 32 years old in a few months. Counting on him to pitch effectively in a late-season role is a lottery ticket bet at best.
Coincidentally, I'm betting that Buchholz is going to be spending some time on the disabled list soon enough.
 

SouthernBoSox

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There has never been a player in the history of baseball who has 10 years of service time referenced as an "upside" player like Buchholz. It's amazing.

He is who he is. A wildly inconsistent pitcher who flashes greatness, gets rocked, and gets injured. This isn't new.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Buchholz has a career WHIP of 1.49 in April and 1.43 in May.

The rest of the season reads: 1.05, 1.25, 1.27 and 1.19

The trade deadline is the time to panic.
There's a clear survivor bias in these numbers, though. Because, like a beautiful butterfly, Clay's pitching cycle develops in three distinct stages.

Clay Buchholz's 10-Year Career and why it bugs me

Egg Stage

39 GS - 1001 PA - 1.49 WHIP - March/April (regular season)
31 GS - 908 PA - 1.43 WHIP - May

Larval Stage
21 GS - 540 PA - 1.05 WHIP - June
21 GS - 546 PA - 1.25 WHIP - July

Adult Stage
28 GS - 739 PA - 1.27 WHIP - August
30 GS - 722 PA - 1.19 WHIP - September/October (regular season)

Clay's made 10+ April-and-May starts in each and every one of the last 6 seasons, they just haven't been very good (1909 PA allowing a collective 115 tOPS+).

He's made 11+ August-and-September starts half the time (in 2010, 2012, and 2014), which have generally been above average (1461 PA allowing a collective 92 tOPS+).

But Clay's only ever started 5+ June games twice in his career (2010, 2015); he's only ever started 5+ July games once (2014). This lack of overlap means that 0 times in his entire MLB career has Clay Buchholz actually started even 9+ games during the months of June - July. If there's any convincing reason to suspect that this year will be any different, I haven't heard it.

So while now probably isn't the time to panic, it's definitely the time to plan.
 

grimshaw

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I'm inclined at this point to just treat Clay like the league average pitcher he is - with a 4.03 xFIP, a below average strike out (7.02/9) and walk rate (3.2/9). As his BABIP goes on the high gb% (48) so goes he. Rather than factoring too heavily on the months (which Buzzkill put good work into), I'd like to see if he can repeat the success he had with Vazquez two years ago and hope things turn around enough that he looks like 2014 Clay by July.

If not, I'm no longer interested in retaining him past the deadline if he is hitting those league average benchmarks, if the rotation is rolling, and Kelly is doing fine in the pen. It will be time to cash in on this guy. The minors could still use more pitching prospects. If you can get 1 or two, I'm down for it.
 

whatittakes

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It's worth investing more time in Buchholz, but that's going to be harder and harder to justify with the other 4 rotation spots apparently rounding into shape. Did I hear correctly that E-Rod would be returning to the roster in the next couple weeks, or do I have that conflated with the imminent return of Carson Smith?

It could be quite a nice problem to have. The idea that 5 quality pitchers could push a talented underperformer out of a job when we went into the season thinking the rotation would be a weakness would be a very good thing.
 

Rasputin

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It's worth investing more time in Buchholz, but that's going to be harder and harder to justify with the other 4 rotation spots apparently rounding into shape. Did I hear correctly that E-Rod would be returning to the roster in the next couple weeks, or do I have that conflated with the imminent return of Carson Smith?

It could be quite a nice problem to have. The idea that 5 quality pitchers could push a talented underperformer out of a job when we went into the season thinking the rotation would be a weakness would be a very good thing.
As was pointed out to me when I suggested the possibility of trading Buchholz, if he's pitching well enough for someone to want to trade for him, he's pitching well enough for us to want to keep him. The only way it makes sense, then, is if someone else is pitching really well and is in need of a major league rotation slot. I'm not sure who that would/could be.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
if he's pitching well enough for someone to want to trade for him, he's pitching well enough for us to want to keep him.
Doesn't the truth of this depend quite a bit on what the Sox are willing to accept in return? A lot of teams might be willing to take a flyer on a struggling veteran who has dominated for stretches in the past. They just won't give up much for him. But depending on the exact identity of that "not much," there might still be a deal that would make sense for the Sox.
 

Rasputin

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Doesn't the truth of this depend quite a bit on what the Sox are willing to accept in return? A lot of teams might be willing to take a flyer on a struggling veteran who has dominated for stretches in the past. They just won't give up much for him. But depending on the exact identity of that "not much," there might still be a deal that would make sense for the Sox.
I want to say yes, but I'm not really sure. I mean, I'm sure someone would give up something of value for Clay Buchholz. It's just that he'd have to be pitching fairly well, but the Sox would have to think there's someone who could be pitching better. The someones in questions are probably Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, and Roenis Elias. That's an incredibly narrow window.

Now if we're talking about a trade going down in the offseason, I can see that better. You trade Buchholz for a lefty reliever and a lottery ticket and plan to start Owens or whomever. We end up with a rotation next year of Price, Porcello, Wright, Rodriguez, and Owens.

'Cause here's the thing. If the Sox were to trade Buchholz, it wouldn't be because they were looking for something of tremendous value in return, it would be because they're just as goddamn tired of the inability to count on him at all and it's really hard to do that kind of thing at the trade deadline.

But he'll be in the DL in a couple weeks anyway.
 

In my lifetime

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In the RS current starting pitching scenario with Kelly and ERod both out, I don't follow the trade Buchholz movement. Owens has a a WHIP of 1.93, he somehow pulled a Houdini last night thanks to CS, double plays, etc. to avoid giving up a crooked number while allowing 10 of the 1st 20 batters to reach base. In 2 starts, he has lasted 9 and 1/3rd while giving up 7 walks and 1 HBP. He certainly needs time in AAA to work on his control. Yesterday, Kelly threw off the mound for the 1st time and is still at least a week away from a rehab assignment, if everything goes well. ERod 1st rehab start on Thursday lasted 3 innings and resulted in 6 hits, and 3 walks. Clearly this is not a team that has an abundance of starting pitching. Best case scenario has ERod ready to pitch in 3 weeks and Kelly in 4-5 weeks. With the starters propensity for injuries in the recent past, which is the best predictor of future injury, it seems extremely doubtful that the RS will have all 6 starting pitcher candidates (this list does not include Owens) healthy together for more than a few weeks this season. So the rotation for the season is whichever 5 of the following 6 are not on the DL: Price, Porcello, Wright, Buchholz, ERod, and Kelly. The rare times, when/if all are healthy that skipping a turn of one of the latter 3 on a rotating basis to keep them relatively healthy wouldn't be the worst thing.
 

whatittakes

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In the RS current starting pitching scenario with Kelly and ERod both out, I don't follow the trade Buchholz movement.
Kelly and E-Rod won't be on the DL forever. It's a fair question to ask which of the two of Buchholz and Kelly should occupy the last rotation spot assuming everyone's healthy and Wright doesn't turn into a pumpkin.

Personally I think the real answer to this dilemma is "the Red Sox are likely to trade for another starting pitcher by the deadline." If we're in contention I expect DD to make a move to sharpen the top of the rotation a little, so we're not quite so dependent on Rick Porcello who I'll be honest, I'd have a bit of trouble trusting Porcello in the postseason with that HR/FB problem. that's my personal speculation of course, but I think it's one I share with a lot of people here. I think it's very likely that neither Kelly nor Buchholz finish the season starting for this team.
 

simplicio

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Personally I think the real answer to this dilemma is "the Red Sox are likely to trade for another starting pitcher by the deadline."
Think so? I think you only do that if four of the seven are complete busts/injured and you're somehow still in contention. You don't have to have the Mets' rotation to go deep in the post season if your offense is working- just ask the Royals.
 

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I'm worried about how dependent this team is on E-Rod being on form. With the injury, I wonder whether he might take some time to get his mechanics down again, it can happen sometimes, especially to young power lefties. if E-Rod is mired in the sophomore blahs, Steve Wright is our #3 starter in the playoffs, and I love Wright, but he's not a #3 starter in the playoffs. I think we have some faith that Price will be back to his usual tricks by the playoffs, but at the moment that's the only starter we can count on with reasonable faith to be up to playoffs level.

I think acquiring a starter would be an act of mitigating certain risks, and with E-Rod up in the air, Wright the kind of pleasant surprise you enjoy, but not the kind you count on indefinitely, and Porcello having a long track record of being vulnerable to big fly balls, which makes me uncomfortable about relying on him too heavily in the playoffs, we have plenty of risks to mitigate. I nmight be straining at gnats, and some risk has to be taken, but I really do feel like DD is going to want to hedge his bets on this rotation -- just ask the Royals, who acquired Johnny Cueto for similar reasons last deadline.
 

In my lifetime

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Kelly and E-Rod won't be on the DL forever. It's a fair question to ask which of the two of Buchholz and Kelly should occupy the last rotation spot assuming everyone's healthy and Wright doesn't turn into a pumpkin.

Personally I think the real answer to this dilemma is "the Red Sox are likely to trade for another starting pitcher by the deadline." If we're in contention I expect DD to make a move to sharpen the top of the rotation a little, so we're not quite so dependent on Rick Porcello who I'll be honest, I'd have a bit of trouble trusting Porcello in the postseason with that HR/FB problem. that's my personal speculation of course, but I think it's one I share with a lot of people here. I think it's very likely that neither Kelly nor Buchholz finish the season starting for this team.
Your post contradicts your point to some extent. On one hand, stating that the RS have too many starters and the other that they don't have enough quality starters and need to trade for another pitcher. Of course, every team would love to have higher quality starting pitching.

Kelly and R-Rod won't be on the DL forever, then the real answer is a trade for another starting pitcher. So I presume in your scenario, the RS trade Buchholz and then trade for a more reliable starter to replace him. Basically moving Buchholz and Kelly for a reliable #2 pitcher >> Buchholz. The problem is that other teams don't exist to give the RS a dime for 2 nickels.

My point is simply that due to current and the likelihood of additional injuries, the RS don't really have an excess of starting pitching. So figuring out who is in the 5th spot, when they currently only have 4 Major League worthy starters (excluding Owens, who to me is not ready) is not a question that needs an answer for at least 2 months and perhaps not until the off season. Best case scenario with everyone healthy in 2 months, the RS will have a much bigger sample size to make what could be a very obvious decision based on performance in the next 2 months.
 

whatittakes

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Your post contradicts your point to some extent. On one hand, stating that the RS have too many starters and the other that they don't have enough quality starters and need to trade for another pitcher. Of course, every team would love to have higher quality starting pitching.
Just to split hairs, I didn't say they need another pitcher. I said i think they will get another pitcher, and I think they will go for a top of the rotation SP because they probably have the assets to acquire one, they're a good candidate to get into the playoffs, because Henry will want to go for the World Series if possibe, especially in Ortiz' final year, and because of the percieved need for a #2 starter from the start of the season that Steven Wright is masking at the moment due to playing probably over his head.

if you don't think that this is a "go for it" year they probably don't "need" a starter just to make the playoffs, Acquiring one would be about making some noise when and if you actually get there. If that makes any sense.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Name some pitchers, and what you'd give up for them at the deadline...

The only Cueto/Price out there is Strasburg, who's not being traded. You want Peavy or Sabathia? There's no obvious candidate to me that improves the rotation so I'd like to speculate which rebuilding team would give up a stud for some Red Sox top 100 minor leaguers, and why that would make sense.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I can easily envision a swihart based deal to beane for gray.
And yes, I do believe this is a GFIN year with the heart of our lineup retiring...
 

williams_482

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Buchholz in the pen makes no sense. He has no experience there, as Ras noted, and perhaps his biggest strength as a pitcher is the depth of his repertoire; if the cutter isn't working on a given day, the curve or the change will be. And on a day when most or all of his pitches are working, he can attack hitters differently each time they face him. This is when he dominates. So it should be no surprise that Clay has a strong pattern of getting better as he works through a game:

Times through the order / OPS
1x .727
2x .712
3x .655

The first two numbers there are very close to 2016 AL average (.739 and .710). But a league-average pitcher gets markedly worse on the third time through (.768). So putting Clay in the pen effectively removes the part of his game that makes him an above-average pitcher. And this is even assuming that he would adapt well to the bullpen routine and rhythm.

I think the Sox will give him at least May to snap out of this, as long as he can continue to go out and throw 5-6 innings as he has been doing. If he doesn't snap out of it, and there isn't a physical problem, then I think the most likely way out is a trade, maybe to an NL team with a pitcher's park.
I'm not sure this is evidence of Buchholz getting better into games so much as evidence that Good Buchholz/Bad Buchholz is a real and tangible thing.

On any given day, if Clay is bad or mediocre he probably gets pulled before he can go through the lineup a 3rd time, but if he's good he stays in and (aparently) continues to pitch better than he normally does despite fatigue (and maybe familiarity). This bias is true of all pitchers to some extent, but for most pitchers performing well against the first 18 batters doesn't say much about how they will perform the third time through the order. Buchholz may be an exception.

If we want to see if he really improves as the game goes on, we need to look at time through the order splits exclusively for games in which he faced the batting order a third time.
 

simplicio

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The problem is that other teams don't exist to give the RS a dime for 2 nickels.
And the dimes themselves may not exist either- the rental market looks real thin this year. Beyond Strasburg and Volquez (and Latos, if he and the White Sox keep this up) who will almost certainly be unavailable, you're down to the Rich Hill/Jorge de la Rosa/Iwakuma class of SP who hit FA this fall. Is that an upgrade from our guys worth giving up extra for?
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Name some pitchers, and what you'd give up for them at the deadline...

The only Cueto/Price out there is Strasburg, who's not being traded. You want Peavy or Sabathia? There's no obvious candidate to me that improves the rotation so I'd like to speculate which rebuilding team would give up a stud for some Red Sox top 100 minor leaguers, and why that would make sense.
I think with Price and Rodriguez as power lefties already in place, the push will be for a RH #2 (non-knucleball variety).

Basically, exactly what Clay should be....but all too often isn't. There are a few options -- Gray, Ross, Cashner, etc. All the same names that were thrown out as reasonable gets in the offseason, in other words.

I'd expect something like Gray (3 1/3 years) + Reddick (1/3 year) for Swihart + Owens + Barnes (6 1/3 years each) is about the type of deal the Sox would be looking to swing at the deadline, though I'd expect Beane tries to pry one of the big-4 off DDski somewhere in the package.
 

NoXInNixon

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I think it's impossible to predict who might be available at the deadline. Maybe the nats crash and burn and Strasburg is available. Maybe the Mets collapse and decide to trade Harvey. Maybe Gray. Maybe someone we'd never imagine. Did anyone think on this date in 2012 that Lester would be traded?
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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I've got a soft spot for Hisashi, especially as a RHP with tons of downward action, but his team options (10m, 11m) and guaranteed options (14m, 15m at 162ip each year) mean I don't think he's getting moved. He's either not gonna be worth it from being so bad (and he's off to a rocky start) or he's too good to give up/he'd cost too much.

I'm also don't think I make the deal Buzzkill Pauley suggests - Gray is attractive, but some of his numbers (BB/ip for example) scare me too much to give up that much, and the more it would likely cost.
 

simplicio

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My bad, I just glanced at sportrac's FA list and they didn't mention options. Scratch off another possibility then. Prices are going to be steep!

Agreed on Gray- he's always struck me as an overpay waiting to happen.
 

TheGerbil

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Sep 28, 2010
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Kelly has proven that he belongs in the bullpen. Doesn't seem to have the makeup of a closer, but maybe another hard throwing option in the 7th or even 8th inning to keep Taz and Koji fresh.
Shaky group of 7 SP here...trader Dombrowski will have to make a move for another 1/2 caliber starter at the deadline if the Sox are serious in 2016.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I read about Rodriguez' lack of velocity today...I assume it's true.

They shouldn't be bringing him up if he can't throw in the 90's. I'd rather they sacrifice Kelly for a start or two if that's what it takes to get EdRod right.

Anyone know Kelly's timetable?
 

luckysox

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I read about Rodriguez' lack of velocity today...I assume it's true.

They shouldn't be bringing him up if he can't throw in the 90's. I'd rather they sacrifice Kelly for a start or two if that's what it takes to get EdRod right.

Anyone know Kelly's timetable?
Yep, that concerns me, too. I know the AAA options look pretty lousy right now, but if the rotation has to deal with them for another 2 or 3 times though to get EdRo back to where he needs to be, then so be it. This might be the season to do it with an offense that has been pretty consistent so far, and able to overcome some craptastic outings more than once.
 

soxhop411

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Might be a bit for E-Rod

“‪@bradfo‬: Farrell says on @DaleHolleyWEEI Rodriguez has knee soreness and will miss Thurs start @WEEI”
 

luckysox

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Might be a bit for E-Rod

“‪@bradfo‬: Farrell says on @DaleHolleyWEEI Rodriguez has knee soreness and will miss Thurs start @WEEI”
Not good. Get it healed and shoot for post all-star break. Do not mess with this guy's arm by having him favor his knee. Let's hope Kelly comes back this season like he did late last season. And Wright stays dry and awesome. And Buchholz stops sucking. And Price has turned it around for good. And this is the real Porcello. It's a rotation of hopes.
 

In my lifetime

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And this is why when 2 of the 6 are on the DL/Rehab starts, it is a waste of energy to debate who of the 6 are demoted from the rotation.
 

soxhop411

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“‪@MikeSilvermanBB‬: E-Rod has felt knee soreness in his rehab starts. Farrell expects/hopes (can’t really say if) the lefty will pitch this season.”