Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave

Rasputin said:

Well don't I look like an ass? 'Sokay, when I don't do the research myself, I deserve to.

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It surprised the hell out of me. I was actually expecting to confirm your point.

I just took a look at a few of these guys and almost to a man, they played at higher than Low A in their first year.

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Here's the breakdown of those 18 guys by highest level reached in the year they were drafted:

AA: 5
A+: 3
A: 4
A- or rookie league: 2
None (played no summer-season pro ball their draft year): 4

Benintendi made it to A ball in his first year, so he's pretty near the middle of this range.

I think the Red Sox are traditionally a little more conservative than other clubs in pushing guys. I don't see a huge difference in what he did and a couple of the guys who made A+ or AA. I would expect a Kris Bryant like treatment of him. In that if he comes and mashes AA without missing a beat then we'll be listening to people complain that Benintendi is getting the Bryant/Springer treatment if he's not on the opening day roster. If he is just pedestrian or even just good in AA he will be on a slower track.

(I don't think he is as good as Kris Bryant, btw)

Harper btw is a unique case. He got his GED in order to skip his senior year of high school and went to junior college instead to play with a wood bat and was drafted 4 months before his 18th birthday. He really shouldn't be considered part of the conversation IMO. Doesn't change anything, just people forget the guy is less than two years older than Benintendi.

smastroyin said:

I think the Red Sox are traditionally a little more conservative than other clubs in pushing guys. I don't see a huge difference in what he did and a couple of the guys who made A+ or AA. I would expect a Kris Bryant like treatment of him. In that if he comes and mashes AA without missing a beat then we'll be listening to people complain that Benintendi is getting the Bryant/Springer treatment if he's not on the opening day roster. If he is just pedestrian or even just good in AA he will be on a slower track.

(I don't think he is as good as Kris Bryant, btw)

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I think they pushed Bogaerts (completely unnecessarily in my view, giving away control of his age 27 season in the process) and Betts very aggressively.

Otherwise I agree.

In the question of how hard they're likely to push him, we should remember that we have a new head of baseball ops, and one that has pushed players aggressively before.

Perhaps I erred in saying it is "likely" that Benintendi will be ready in 2017. Maybe I extrapolated too much from the reports I have read from various analysts, most recently Keith Law, who said it's possible that he might even be ready for a late-season call-up this year, a year after being drafted, like Conforto last year. (If it's possible he might be ready late this year, that possibility should increase by 2017). Whether it's actually "likely" or not, my main point was that I suspect it was a factor in their not seriously exploring other OF option for 2016 that might have had longer-term impact, such as Fowler or the bigger fish such as Upton or Cespedes. They may not be counting on Benintendi being ready by 2017, but they also may not be willing to make a significant bet against it by committing big dollars to a FA.

Dewey'sCannon said:

Whether it's actually "likely" or not, my main point was that I suspect it was a factor in their not seriously exploring other OF option for 2016 that might have had longer-term impact, such as Fowler or the bigger fish such as Upton or Cespedes. They may not be counting on Benintendi being ready by 2017, but they also may not be willing to make a significant bet against it by committing big dollars to a FA.

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That's the part that's really silly. Look at the outfielders we have. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Rusney Castillo, Chris Young. One guy who is a good combination of young and solid. Two guys who have showed promise who haven't really established themselves, and one guy who is older who can play a larger than normal backup role.

They needed Young because neither Castillo nor Bradley have established themselves but the Sox are pretty clearly committed to giving them the playing time in 2016 to establish themselves or GTFO. That's the message to take from the fact that they didn't invest in a Fowler, Upton, or Cespedes. If you sign one of them, you don't have the playing time for Castillo or Bradley, not anything about Beninenti.

After 2016, if one of Castillo Bradley has failed to establish themselves, then sure, maybe they're looking at a one or two year option instead of a longer term option, but I don't think it reasonably plays into 2016. There's a much more 25-man roster centric reasoning that I am sure was the reason.

Rasputin said:

That's the part that's really silly. Look at the outfielders we have. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Rusney Castillo, Chris Young. One guy who is a good combination of young and solid. Two guys who have showed promise who haven't really established themselves, and one guy who is older who can play a larger than normal backup role.

They needed Young because neither Castillo nor Bradley have established themselves but the Sox are pretty clearly committed to giving them the playing time in 2016 to establish themselves or GTFO. That's the message to take from the fact that they didn't invest in a Fowler, Upton, or Cespedes. If you sign one of them, you don't have the playing time for Castillo or Bradley, not anything about Beninenti.

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But it would presumably not have been that difficult to trade Castillo or Bradley. And certainly Castillo (it's more complicated with Bradley) has shown nothing that should make the Sox even slightly hesitant to trade him to make room for an FA signing. It is exceedingly unlikely that he will ever be more than a bottom-third hitter with pretty good defense and a bit of speed. 4 WAR will be a very good peak season for him, and I won't be surprised if he never touches that number. He's not even a logical platoon partner for Young.

OTOH, keeping him makes sense if the Sox see Benintendi as the long-term answer and just want a half-decent placeholder for another year or so.

FWIW, in his game chat today, Rob Bradford predicts Benintendi will play in Boston this season.

phenweigh said:

FWIW, in his game chat today, Rob Bradford predicts Benintendi will play in Boston this season.

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There are only two scenarios I see that happening...1) desperation due to multiple outfielders getting hurt or being epicsly ineffective or 2) he plays out of his mind for four months, he races through Portland and Pawtucket, and they call him up when rosters expand to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle during a late push for the post-season. But even the latter means someone (or multiple someones) is hurt or playing poorly enough to get pushed to the side by an unproven rookie.

Frankly, unless it's the most desperate of desperate emergencies, I can't see them starting his service clock before 2017. Let alone that he'd actually be ready.