Pats FA Watch: LGBT Back on a 1-year Deal

SeoulSoxFan

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Ale Xander said:
They still need a power back, i.e. someone good on 3rd and 4th and 1 or 2. I'd be inclined to package White to upgrade Blount. I love Forte, but he's not really a power back.
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A "power back" that's only good for short yardage situations seems like a limited usage of a roster spot. Blount was never one anyway, neither was Ridley. Devlin is coming back too.

A top 10 RB in 2015 earned about $4m (Vereen, Spiller, Ingram, etc.) If Forte is serious about what he was saying about salary vs. SBs, then a 3-year, $12m deal with a 2-year guarantee with $7m-$8m range (most RB contracts are guaranteed for 40% or less) would not only be the best offensive upgrade this team can make in FA, but also very doable under the cap.

Forte is a dual thread, once-elite, now SB-hungry veteran with gas left in the tank, and (by all accounts) a locker room leader. This guy fits the type of pickup BB does and should be terrific as a Patriot.

Edit: also encouraging -- had his best games after coming back from the MCL sprain in week 12.
 
Super Nomario

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SeoulSoxFan said:
A "power back" that's only good for short yardage situations seems like a limited usage of a roster spot. Blount was never one anyway, neither was Ridley. Devlin is coming back too.

A top 10 RB in 2015 earned about $4m (Vereen, Spiller, Ingram, etc.) If Forte is serious about what he was saying about salary vs. SBs, then a 3-year, $12m deal with a 2-year guarantee with $7m-$8m range (most RB contracts are guaranteed for 40% or less) would not only be the best offensive upgrade this team can make in FA, but also very doable under the cap.

Forte is a dual thread, once-elite, now SB-hungry veteran with gas left in the tank, and (by all accounts) a locker room leader. This guy fits the type of pickup BB does and should be terrific as a Patriot.

Edit: also encouraging -- had his best games after coming back from the MCL sprain in week 12.
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I'm curious about the apparent consensus that the RBs, not the OL, are to blame for the poor rushing performance this year. I think Lewis was the only RB who showed the ability to make something out of nothing, but I'd kinda like to see the RBs not getting hit two-three yards in the backfield so much. Forte getting drilled behind the LOS isn't going to be a big upgrade on anyone else getting drilled behind the LOS.
 
pappymojo

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Super Nomario said:
I'm curious about the apparent consensus that the RBs, not the OL, are to blame for the poor rushing performance this year. I think Lewis was the only RB who showed the ability to make something out of nothing, but I'd kinda like to see the RBs not getting hit two-three yards in the backfield so much. Forte getting drilled behind the LOS isn't going to be a big upgrade on anyone else getting drilled behind the LOS.
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Seems to me that poor performance by the RBs compounded the poor performance by the OL and vice versa. They both need an upgrade.
 
williams_482

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Personally, I'd much rather spend money on OL than RBs. Should improve both the passing and running games, and the improvement on the ground should be largest in higher leverage short yardage situations.

Not to say I would be opposed to getting Matt Forte, but he was the king of empty 1,000 yard seasons behind that shoddy Bears OL, and age isn't going to make him any better.
 
DJnVa

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williams_482 said:
Not to say I would be opposed to getting Matt Forte, but he was the king of empty 1,000 yard seasons behind that shoddy Bears OL, and age isn't going to make him any better.
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What are empty 1000 yard seasons? Seems if the OL was shoddy, him getting 1000 is pretty impressive.

Throw in 40+ catches and what's the issue?
 
williams_482

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DrewDawg said:
What are empty 1000 yard seasons? Seems if the OL was shoddy, him getting 1000 is pretty impressive.

Throw in 40+ catches and what's the issue?
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Surprisingly low success rates (and correspondingly low expected points values) given how good he was in the passing game.

I won't say he was a bad player, but his impressive 1000+ yard performances didn't actually help his teams that much because his line (presumably) didn't give him enough space to get the consistent gains which make running backs valuable. Given the hypothetical choice of seeing an older version of him do the boom and bust routine behind our questionable OL, or seeing someone like Blount running behind an upgraded OL, I will take the later.
 
E5 Yaz

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williams_482 said:
Given the hypothetical choice of seeing an older version of him do the boom and bust routine behind our questionable OL, or seeing someone like Blount running behind an upgraded OL, I will take the later.
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I'd take an older version of him behind an upgraded OL.

I know you said "someone like Blount" and not specifically Blount, but that does get me wondering whether Blount's days as an effective runner are over. Even before the hip injury, he wasn't the same force he had been previously.
 
williams_482

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E5 Yaz said:
I'd take an older version of him behind an upgraded OL.

I know you said "someone like Blount" and not specifically Blount, but that does get me wondering whether Blount's days as an effective runner are over. Even before the hip injury, he wasn't the same force he had been previously.
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That's the ideal, certainly. If they can sign Forte while upgrading the OL and maintaining solid play everywhere else on the field, that would be excellent. He has BB's stamp of approval, and that is good enough for me.

Blount actually seems like another guy who is far and away better off behind a strong OL. He sucked out loud in Tampa and Pittsburg (his rookie year is actually a textbook example of an "empty 1000 yard season") and anecdotally he was not particularly effective this season either. He's a big, powerful, downhill guy, but he can't really take advantage of those traits if the OL doesn't let him build up a decent head of steam.

He is getting old for a RB, but as a cheap option behind a stronger line I think he'd be fine.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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I don't know why you would ever spend money on a FA RB, especially after a season that saw a bunch of quality rookies taken in round 3 and beyond.
 
Devizier

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How about someone like James Starks? He's likely to re-sign with the Packers, but he hasn't yet. He sure as hell wouldn't get anyone excited, but he is capable (if not particularly good) in all facets of running back play, and he complements someone like Lewis in that he's more of a downhill runner (like Blount, but with nowhere near the size). Obviously the big negative with him is staying healthy, but that hardly makes him atypical for an NFL running back. His last contract was 2 years, 3.2 million. I can't imagine he'll get more than that as he rounds the corner into 30.

Just trying to think in terms of second- and third-tier guys because I don't think Lamar Miller, Matt Forte, or Charcandrick West will sign at a price that the Patriots will want to pay (never mind Doug Martin, coming off a career year).
 
DJnVa

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Now the fun time begins.

I did see where the Pats have opened as betting favorites (9/1) for the Super Bowl.
 
Mooch

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RedOctober3829 said:
If Forte doesn't pan out, what about going after Alfred Morris? This article makes a compelling argument.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/02/09/nfl-free-agent-running-back-alfred-morris-patriots/?cid=twitter_985thesportshub
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No thanks. Morris is a plodder with major issues with pass protection and minimal pass-catching ability. He probably has more road-wear than most guys his age due to his running style between the tackles. Forte is a much more intriguing option.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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Mooch said:
No thanks. Morris is a plodder with major issues with pass protection and minimal pass-catching ability. He probably has more road-wear than most guys his age due to his running style between the tackles. Forte is a much more intriguing option.
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I agree. The bigger concern should be building an OL that can block for any decent RB and working from there. A guy like Morris doesn't fix that problem and likely exacerbates it because his presence in the backfield generally screams "RUN" to the defense. Call it the reverse James White problem. As for Morris in particular, his best work came while playing with RGIII at the height of his running powers. I'd venture a guess that he benefited quite a bit from the threat Griffin's legs posed in those pre-Shanabotage glory days.
 
Mooch

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I'd like to see the Pats make a run at Kelechi Osemele. It would take a hell of a contract to bring him into the fold but he's got the inside/outside versatility that Belichick loves in offensive lineman and would represent a huge upgrade in our run blocking. The only issue is that his agent might push for Left Tackle type money and his best position with the Patriots would be at guard. I'd offer a contract similar to Iupati's deal (5/40, $22.5 guaranteed) after freeing up cap space. The guy is worth it.
 
RedOctober3829

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Mooch said:
I'd like to see the Pats make a run at Kelechi Osemele. It would take a hell of a contract to bring him into the fold but he's got the inside/outside versatility that Belichick loves in offensive lineman and would represent a huge upgrade in our run blocking. The only issue is that his agent might push for Left Tackle type money and his best position with the Patriots would be at guard. I'd offer a contract similar to Iupati's deal (5/40, $22.5 guaranteed) after freeing up cap space. The guy is worth it.
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Would you look at Geoff Schwartz? He's battled injuries the last 2 seasons but is still a very good guard. He would come cheaper than Osemele.
 
Mooch

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He would probably come cheaper than KO but I don't think he could play tackle in a pinch, unlike Osemele. Big guys with recurring foot problems like Schwartz scare the shit of me though. He would certainly come a lot cheaper though. Maybe if he'd accept a short-term deal with few guarantees. Worth kicking the tires to see if he's healthy since he's a decent road-grader when right.
 
bsj

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My personal priorities, not necessarily in this order, this offseason would probably be

1- Offensive Line. Need an upgrade there. Either 1 elite addition or, preferably, 2 above average additions. I think this is best served with a FA addition unless we can trade back into round 1.
2- RB. I would like to add a veteran RB to complement Lewis and White. I think Blount is done here. Pipe dream would be Lamar Miller, but would likely be cost-prohibitive. I think we need someone willing to take a 1-2 year deal at modest money. Guys who MAY fit that mold are Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Ridley.
3- TE. We need to upgraded at TE2. I liked Chandler, still do, but he drops too many balls to be the receiving weapon I think they want that position to be. This seems like something they can target in the draft. I think Nick Vannett would look awfully good lining up across from Gronk.
4- LB- Assuming we bolster this via the draft
5- WR- Again, likely looking to the draft to scoop someone up. But I would not mind seeing them scoop up a middle tier guy like a Sanu (Rutgers!) or a Rishard Matthews. Of course, an elite WR acquisition like Alshon is the pipe dream.
 
Super Nomario

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bsj said:
My personal priorities, not necessarily in this order, this offseason would probably be
3- TE. We need to upgraded at TE2. I liked Chandler, still do, but he drops too many balls to be the receiving weapon I think they want that position to be. This seems like something they can target in the draft. I think Nick Vannett would look awfully good lining up across from Gronk.
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I think rather than a pure second tight end it would be nice to see someone with TE / FB / H-back flexibility. I'm thinking sort of a mix of 2/3 James Develin and 1/3 Aaron Hernandez. Baltimore's Kyle Juszczyk is one example. Mascho wrote about Northwestern's Dan Vitale earlier this year: http://insidethepylon.com/film-study/film-study-u/offense-film-study-u/2015/10/08/cfb-week-6-preview-superback-dan-vitale/; he seems ideal for this role. Gronk's little brother Glenn is another option. A guy like that would only be a modest draft investment but it would add to the multiplicity of the offense in pass protection, power running, and spread passing. They could do a lot of different stuff without switching up personnel.
 
Number45forever

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I still wonder if that knee injury Chandler was dealing with hurt his performance this season. Word in training camp was that he, Gronk and Brady were working together a lot. Even though Chandler's cap number is high, I wonder if he sticks around somehow and has a much better season in year two of the Pats' system. I love the idea of Gronk-Chandler twin tower TEs so much, I wanted it to work.
 
dynomite

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Good overview on CSNNE of the Patriots potential interest in Forte : http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/will-new-england-patriots-attempt-to-sign-matt-forte

As the author points out, despite the team's low-budget approach to the RB position recently, they did draft Maroney in the 1st and Vereen in the 2nd.

Forte says he "wants to play in Super Bowls" and it's not about money. If he has anything left, that will be the real question. Well, that and whether he's willing to take a reduced role.
 
SeoulSoxFan

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E5 Yaz said:
Throwing names against the wall story, ESPN's NFL team reporters cite the one player on each team most in need of a new address. Some interesting possibilities here:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/32for32x160211/32-nfl-players-need-change-scenery-robert-griffin-iii-jason-pierre-paul
Reiss chooses LaFell in this category for the Pats
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Could BB find another gem among Browns' trash? This sounds awfully similar to another ex-Browns pick who found a home with the Pats:
Barkevious Mingo was the sixth pick in the 2013 draft, but he has never found a position on the defense. The Browns have used him as a pass-rusher and as a drop linebacker and can't seem to settle on what to do with him. He could use a fresh start with a new team that can take advantage of his skills. -- Pat McManamon
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MillarTime

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It's amazing to me how many people seem to want to deal Chandler Jones "for a pick" because he has some flaws and will likely be gone as a UFA after 2016. Given that Brady will be 39 next season, I think trading Jones for anything other than something that will definitely help you in 2016 is crazy. I know BB doesn't ever "load up" for one season, but subtracting an important player from a rapidly ascending defense for draft picks doesn't make sense to me, given their current window to compete for #5.
 
Stitch01

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I see most people proposing this thinking about a first round pick for one seasons of Jones with the idea that Hightower and Collins are higher priority signings, which also freed up salary space next year. Unless you view the contention window as exactly 2016, its not clear to me this doesn't help their window depending on the pick and the use of the 2016 cap space

That's before getting into the part where this franchise is never going to view Brady leaving as the end of their contention window.
 
RedOctober3829

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MillarTime said:
It's amazing to me how many people seem to want to deal Chandler Jones "for a pick" because he has some flaws and will likely be gone as a UFA after 2016. Given that Brady will be 39 next season, I think trading Jones for anything other than something that will definitely help you in 2016 is crazy. I know BB doesn't ever "load up" for one season, but subtracting an important player from a rapidly ascending defense for draft picks doesn't make sense to me, given their current window to compete for #5.
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I would only trade Jones if I could get a player of similar value. I have been beating the Jones-for-Wilkerson drum for a few weeks, but even I realize that is unrealistic. I wouldn't dump Jones for a pick.
 
Toe Nash

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MillarTime said:
It's amazing to me how many people seem to want to deal Chandler Jones "for a pick" because he has some flaws and will likely be gone as a UFA after 2016. Given that Brady will be 39 next season, I think trading Jones for anything other than something that will definitely help you in 2016 is crazy. I know BB doesn't ever "load up" for one season, but subtracting an important player from a rapidly ascending defense for draft picks doesn't make sense to me, given their current window to compete for #5.
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Plus, even if you expect to lose him after this year, you would get a comp pick for him then. So trading him would have to get you something significantly better than that.
 
H78

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Anyone else worried that "this is the year" we start to see a fair level of decline in Brady?

I know, I know - he had a borderline MVP year last season. But man - he was hit a LOT. Those hits have to be adding up, and for a guy who already has an increasingly-inaccurate long ball, I'm worried that the first thing we're gonna start to see "go" in the near future is his accuracy in the short passing game, which is his bread and butter.

Put me in the "let's build a better running game" category. We need to take a little bit of the load off of TB12. His mind is as sharp as ever, so give him a reasonable security blanket to audible to in the running game. When the time comes that he does start losing accuracy, we're gonna wish we had the running game to slow the defense down and allow Brady a little more time to work with when he *does* have to rely on his arm.

Again - I realize there's been no VISIBLE decline in the short passes, but 39 is 39 and it feels like we're skating on thin ice now. We're hoping he's an exception to the rule, but I think we need to find ways to protect him in case, suddenly, he isn't the exception and Father Time does suddenly start to catch up with him.
 
MillarTime

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Toe Nash said:
Plus, even if you expect to lose him after this year, you would get a comp pick for him then. So trading him would have to get you something significantly better than that.
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Agreed. I get that they could trade Jones and use the cap space to fill other spots, but not sure if I'd be willing to gamble on the summation of those move being a clear upgrade.

H78 said:
Anyone else worried that "this is the year" we start to see a fair level of decline in Brady?
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Yes, I'm concerned. To your point, he took an absolute pounding this year. This is why I would be focused on 2016 as THE window.
 
Bergs

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Although I agree his deep ball has declined, I think a lot of that has been exacerbated by the fact he either gets hit on his release or is shuffling around the pocket for a lot of them. He hasn't had a reliably clean pocket for more than a game at a time for more than 2 years now.
 
chilidawg

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MillarTime said:
Agreed. I get that they could trade Jones and use the cap space to fill other spots, but not sure if I'd be willing to gamble on the summation of those move being a clear upgrade.



Yes, I'm concerned. To your point, he took an absolute pounding this year. This is why I would be focused on 2016 as THE window.
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Hopefully the media will focus on this, piss Brady off and bring him in as motivated and focused as he was this year.
 
genoasalami

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H78 said:
Anyone else worried that "this is the year" we start to see a fair level of decline in Brady?

I know, I know - he had a borderline MVP year last season. But man - he was hit a LOT. Those hits have to be adding up, and for a guy who already has an increasingly-inaccurate long ball, I'm worried that the first thing we're gonna start to see "go" in the near future is his accuracy in the short passing game, which is his bread and butter.

Put me in the "let's build a better running game" category. We need to take a little bit of the load off of TB12. His mind is as sharp as ever, so give him a reasonable security blanket to audible to in the running game. When the time comes that he does start losing accuracy, we're gonna wish we had the running game to slow the defense down and allow Brady a little more time to work with when he *does* have to rely on his arm.

Again - I realize there's been no VISIBLE decline in the short passes, but 39 is 39 and it feels like we're skating on thin ice now. We're hoping he's an exception to the rule, but I think we need to find ways to protect him in case, suddenly, he isn't the exception and Father Time does suddenly start to catch up with him.
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Father time is undefeated. I don't care what you eat and how hard you train ...there is going to be a drop off in his performance sooner rather than later, It often starts with a seemingly minor injury that turns out to be 3 to 5 weeks on the bench. I am shocked he survived last year. His OL nearly got him killed.
 
Stitch01

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H78 said:
Anyone else worried that "this is the year" we start to see a fair level of decline in Brady?

I know, I know - he had a borderline MVP year last season. But man - he was hit a LOT. Those hits have to be adding up, and for a guy who already has an increasingly-inaccurate long ball, I'm worried that the first thing we're gonna start to see "go" in the near future is his accuracy in the short passing game, which is his bread and butter.

Put me in the "let's build a better running game" category. We need to take a little bit of the load off of TB12. His mind is as sharp as ever, so give him a reasonable security blanket to audible to in the running game. When the time comes that he does start losing accuracy, we're gonna wish we had the running game to slow the defense down and allow Brady a little more time to work with when he *does* have to rely on his arm.

Again - I realize there's been no VISIBLE decline in the short passes, but 39 is 39 and it feels like we're skating on thin ice now. We're hoping he's an exception to the rule, but I think we need to find ways to protect him in case, suddenly, he isn't the exception and Father Time does suddenly start to catch up with him.
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OL improvement, OL improvement, OL improvement.
 
H78

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Stitch01 said:
OL improvement, OL improvement, OL improvement.
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Definitely, but I think the team also needs someone they can consistently rely on to make good use of a potentially-improved OL. If they re-sign Blount I don't think they'd be doing that; he's way too inconsistent. He'll crush a weak DL one week and then go 10 carries/25 yards the next week.

Personally, I'd take a long look at improving the line and then signing, say, Chris Ivory. Sign Blount as a backup if he can be had at a reasonable price, but consider him as nothing more.
 
DJnVa

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H78 said:
Anyone else worried that "this is the year" we start to see a fair level of decline in Brady?
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I'm never going to assume that until we see it.

Now that doesn't mean that building a better running game or strengthening the OL shouldn't be done. Those should be done any time you can.
 
DJnVa

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H78 said:
If they re-sign Blount I don't think they'd be doing that; he's way too inconsistent. He'll crush a weak DL one week and then go 10 carries/25 yards the next week.
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Blount had no games like that last year. Any game we received 10 or more carries he averaged no less than 3.5 ypc. In the 9 games he received consistent usage he was over 4.0 ypc in 7 of them.

His 3 games under that 3.5 ypc average he had a total of 14 carries. He's actually pretty damn consistent when he's given carries.
 
williams_482

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DrewDawg said:
Blount had no games like that last year. Any game we received 10 or more carries he averaged no less than 3.5 ypc. In the 9 games he received consistent usage he was over 4.0 ypc in 7 of them.

His 3 games under that 3.5 ypc average he had a total of 14 carries. He's actually pretty damn consistent when he's given carries.
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Depends how you define consistent. Ivory would be more expensive and may be more likely to get hurt, but given health he is a more consistent runner on a play-to-play basis than Blount.
 
pappymojo

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williams_482 said:
Depends how you define consistent. Ivory would be more expensive and may be more likely to get hurt, but given health he is a more consistent runner on a play-to-play basis than Blount.
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To my eyes, Ivory looked very inconsistent last year. He appeared to really struggle once Mangold got hurt.

Week 6 - 20 rushes for 146 yards
Week 7 - 17 rushes for 41 yards
Week 8 - 15 rushes for 17 yards
Week 9 - 23 rushes for 26 yards
Week 10 - 18 rushes for 99 yards
 
Hoodie Sleeves

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Bergs said:
Although I agree his deep ball has declined, I think a lot of that has been exacerbated by the fact he either gets hit on his release or is shuffling around the pocket for a lot of them. He hasn't had a reliably clean pocket for more than a game at a time for more than 2 years now.
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It was really tough to get a good read on Brady - he's definitely getting the ball out faster than he was when he was younger - but hes also making a lot more 'dumb' throws in my mind. There's large periods where he carries the team, but there have also been games where his mistakes have cost them games - that didn't happen very often when he was in his early 30s. I think his peaks are still very high, but his valleys are lower.

Some of the dumb mistakes are probably just being rushed. His deep ball has always been terrible. Moss hid that for a couple years.

I don't understand the argument that if Brady's short accuracy goes, we're gonna want a strong running game. Brady's entire game is short accuracy and timing (and fantastic pocket mobility) - if it goes hes done, and he won't be on the field.
 
amarshal2

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Hoodie Sleeves said:
It was really tough to get a good read on Brady - he's definitely getting the ball out faster than he was when he was younger - but hes also making a lot more 'dumb' throws in my mind. There's large periods where he carries the team, but there have also been games where his mistakes have cost them games - that didn't happen very often when he was in his early 30s. I think his peaks are still very high, but his valleys are lower.

Some of the dumb mistakes are probably just being rushed. His deep ball has always been terrible. Moss hid that for a couple years.

I don't understand the argument that if Brady's short accuracy goes, we're gonna want a strong running game. Brady's entire game is short accuracy and timing (and fantastic pocket mobility) - if it goes hes done, and he won't be on the field.
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How do you reconcile this insight with his interception rate coming down from earlier in his career?
 
SeoulSoxFan

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RedOctober3829 said:
Tony Pauline ‏@TonyPauline 1m1 minute ago
Word from the combine is receiver Travis Benjamin will test the free agent market & has almost a handful of meetings w/other teams set up.
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I'm afraid Benjamin would be way too expensive and probably looking to be paid like a #1 receiver, but what an addition he could be. He's also a terrific returner and can certainly stretch the field (4.36 40-time at the combine).
 
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