Chat S--- Get Banged: Leicester Have Won the League!

I don't think anyone was seriously suggesting a Leicester title would be comparable to Atletico's title - Leicester may be rich by European football's standards, but they're poor by Premiership standards, and them winning the title would be like discovering that Santa Claus is actually real. (I did, and still do, wonder if perhaps their tactical similarities might be replicable by other poor relations in differing leagues across Europe...but there's no evidence to suggest Ranieri set out to copy Atletico this season, is there?)
 

Bailey10

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Leicester have been able to combine a relatively strongly defense, a once in a lifetime season by Vardy at striker and shrewd signings like Mahrez and Kante to create an unbelievable season. They play direct and are not afraid of anybody, which has caught many premier league oppositions by surprise. In the end, its their unexpected attacking prowess that has propelled them this far.

When Atleti won the title, their back line was able to impose their will and grind out win after win in La Liga. Juanfran, Godin, Miranda and Felipe Luiz bullied teams defensively and also on set pieces. Combined with Courtois in goal and Gabi and Tiago sitting in front of the back four, it was Atleti's defensive solidity and overwhelming physical strength that won them the title.
 
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coremiller

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One of the big questions facing Leicester was how their counter attacking style would work against weaker sides that park the bus against them. Today against Norwich, who have not kept a road clean sheet all season, showed that they may have problems. They struggled to create much of anything for 88 minutes until Ulloa's late winner.

But they did win. A very precious 3 points.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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They got all three points today, but it was the first time when I thought maybe they were laboring a little under the weight of expectations. They had eight days off, but still looked a step slow and stuck in mud for the last 20 minutes of the game.

They don't concede goals, though, and that makes things easier. Watching today, though, it wasn't difficult to imagine a run of being on the other side of some 1-0 games. The finish line is getting close now, and they don't need to keep it going for very much longer -- after the Watford game, I really thought they all but had both hands on the trophy, but despite getting all three points today, I have a nagging feeling that Spurs aren't quite out of this yet.
 

coremiller

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They have a 5-point lead with 8 games to go. I think they probably need 5 more wins -- that would force Spurs to take 20/24 remaining points, which is not impossible but would be a hard ask (Arsenal would need 26/27 which is almost certainly beyond them). If they only pick up 12 points, that opens the door for both Spurs and Arsenal to get hot and make a run.

Teams have blown bigger leads than this before -- in 2012 Man Utd were 8 points ahead of Man city with only 6 matches remaining, although City did have the advantage of a head-to-head fixture at home left (somehow this doesn't really get remembered as an epic choke by United, even though it was).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Yeah, 5 wins would basically keep them on their season pace -- they have 4.8 wins every 8 games and average 2.1 points per game played. If they keep up that pace, they end with 79 or 80 points and the only team that could catch them is a near perfect (7-1-0 or 8-0-0) Spurs. If they finish the season like they've played it so far, 5-2-1 or 4-4-0 are reasonable expectations and either should be good enough. I think their path to losing the league is if pressure down the stretch turns some of those wins turn into draws.
 

CodPiece XL

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For me personally, this team reminds me more of an another unfashionable team that took the English league by storm back on the 70’s.

Nottingham Forest had just managed to get promoted to the English 1st Division in 1977 ( they finished behind Wolves and Chelsea to get promoted) , they were one of the favorites to get relegated that season and head back down. Instead, they surged to the top , everyone was expecting the wheels to come off, the media was positive they could not keep it up, there wasn’t not any pressure on them.

Well, the rest is history. They won the league. Not only that, they went on to win two European Cups in the following seasons. Now, I’m certain that WONT happen and of course Notts Forest had Brian Clough but I do see parallels. There are some squad similarities: Forrest also had two no nonsense center halves, Lloyd and Burns, nothing fancy, not afraid to put the tackle in ( Huth , Morgan) and Forrest also had a mesmerizing wing wizard called John Robertson who could tie you in knots ( Mahrez). They also had their fair share of bargain basement cast offs.

I know it’s not a perfect comparison. There is more money to throw at players ( millions being spent by all teams) , it’s a different financial era. However, I do see some similarities and I think both teams can be appreciated in different ways almost 40 years apart.

I was a kid back then…but I still remember these upstarts taking Man Utd to the cleaners. Liverpool were kings of Europe…Notts Forest were unwelcome gate crashers. I really hope they pull it off this season, it’s been glorious to watch. They are not losing as many goals, which was my main concern...make it happen.
 
The degree of difficulty of winning two European Cups in the late 1970s is probably just about on a par with Leicester winning the league this season - so yeah, that's a good comparison.

However this season ends, though, I do see Leicester's overall trajectory being the same as Montpellier's, who I mentioned previously. Montpellier won Ligue 1 in 2012 after finishing 14th in 2011; since then, they've finished 9th in 2013, 15th in 2014 and 7th in 2015, and they're currently 15th this season. A club like Forest could hope to keep their best players for several years after a miracle season like 1977, but sadly, that's not how things work any more.
 

Schnerres

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I would guess that Tottenham could go 5-3-0 (at Liverpool, at Stoke, at Chelsea) in their matches and earn 18 more points. Of course they could easily turn such a draw into a win and all is mood. If they get those 18 points, which should be close to optimum for them, Leicester has to get 14 due to their worse goal +/-, so they either go 4-2-2 or just win 5 more and be safe.
I would say with those away matches (Palace, Sunderland, ManUnited, Chelsea) and the close matches they´ve played, it will be very close. I hope they make it happen at home against Everton.

You know, my home team is Kaiserslautern, which won the Bundesliga title in 98 after being relegated in ´96 while winning the cup and being promoted again in 97. The club really wasn´t a 2nd league team, had many national team players and an experienced coach in Rehhagel who won everything at Bremen, Bayern, Kaiserslautern and the Euro with Greece later, so it´s also a decent comparison to Leicester. I don´t think that is the bottom of the table team from last season. If you can spend millions on transfers and wages, you need good people to spend it on the right players and good things can happen. And you need luck, healthy players and get on a roll.
That season in 97-98 was magical, too, so i feel for them.
I doubt they will lose all their players or their best players - there´s so much money for every PL team and for Leicester, too, so why would they have someone leaving. If they´re smart, they buy another five to ten starting players for next season (get guys like Okazaki from the Bundesliga or Ligue1 for 0-10mil.€ each, someone like Nordtveit from Gladbach who will join West Ham now), as the additional matches from international competition will weigh heavy on them.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Yeah, that goal difference if it holds makes it so Spurs are effectively four points back. If Spurs can pick up three points on Leicester City in the next 7 games, I think that final match day of the season would be pretty interesting.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Another weekend, another 1-0 win. And another game where they just barely hung on by their fingernails. I actually thought they were second best and Crystal Palace deserved more out of the game, but you could say that against Watford and Newcastle too. I still am skeptical they can hang on to this, but at this point they are running out of games to collapse.
 

candylandriots

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Another weekend, another 1-0 win. And another game where they just barely hung on by their fingernails. I actually thought they were second best and Crystal Palace deserved more out of the game, but you could say that against Watford and Newcastle too. I still am skeptical they can hang on to this, but at this point they are running out of games to collapse.
Every time I have seen them this year, they get one or two chances and absolutely bury them. Today was a perfect example. I thought Palace outplayed them as well, but it was typical Palace with crosses to no one and hitting the crossbar and side netting. Give Leicester credit, they do not make mistakes and are absolutely ruthless on their opponents' mistakes.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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They really control the middle too. They are physical and never give you a free run. If a team like Leicester City is ever going to win the league, I guess making three goals in three games stand up for nine points is how you're going to do it.
 

fletcherpost

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I think it's easy to discount the job the defense and midfield do when the other team attack. They are really well drilled and compact. palace had a lot of the ball, but how many great chances did they create. Not many. They had a couple of great crosses, but no one got on the end of them...that's a lot to do with the Leicester defense marking tight and defending well as a unit and shoring up the space in the box. They seldom get opened up, teams don't often get behind them. I think Wes Morgan was 100% in tackles made yesterday and he and Huth are a great pairing.

it is a cliche but this is how you win titles, grind out wins when you're not at your best. At some point Vardy will get a few goals, and Drinkwater has had his bad game (v Newcastle) and was immense yesterday. It's not easy to take 13 points from 15 at any point in the season, and teams are sitting much deeper against them, which might be why Vardy isn't getting in behind nearly as much as he was in the first half of the season. They do the little things well. ie. against Newcastle they ran the clock down like bosses. They had a about three solid minutes in and around corner flags. It's amazing how many teams can't or don't do that. They aren't scoring many goals, bu they're keeping it tight at the back and not conceding many.

Spurs have some tough games coming up, both teams will drop points. It'll be interesting to see how Leicester play when they really need to chase a game. I know they got a late winner against Norwich, but at this stage of the season, it seams like every couple of matches is a new phase of the season. Fairytales don't happen too often in sport these days, so i think that's where my doubts stem from.
 
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Bill Barnwell, if you can believe it, actually put together a solid article that combined context for Leicester's run with some historical cross-league and cross-sport context for where a LCFC championship would rank in unlikeliest of david-and-goliath stories. Spoiler: he ranks Nottingham Forest first, Kaiserslautern 2nd, and would put Leicester 3rd. The 2013 Red Sox came in 9th.
 
Bill Barnwell, if you can believe it, actually put together a solid article that combined context for Leicester's run with some historical cross-league and cross-sport context for where a LCFC championship would rank in unlikeliest of david-and-goliath stories. Spoiler: he ranks Nottingham Forest first, Kaiserslautern 2nd, and would put Leicester 3rd. The 2013 Red Sox came in 9th.
I was just coming here to post that same link, and the start of your first sentence almost exactly mirrors how I was going to start. His statistical analysis of why Leicester is leading the league is actually good in and of itself, and slightly more believable than his ranking of the top ten unexpected league winners (which still makes for a nice parlor game-level discussion).
 

SocrManiac

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The one flaw I see is Vardy's hotheadedness. I can totally see him getting a violent conduct ban at the worst possible time.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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With so many one goal wins, it's tempting to think that kind of form can average out over the last couple of months and those games can easily become draws and one-goal losses. But it's misleading. Since Boxing Day in the PL, they have 10 clean sheets and have conceded only 6 goals in 14 games. If they aren't going to concede goals, it's getting really hard to see them giving back 7 points to Spurs.
 

lars10

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Does anyone think that either of the two handballs were penalties? It almost seems as though the interpretation of what is a handball:soccer; what is a catch:NFL football. I realize there's ball to hand, but I also thought that defenders were supposed to keep their hand close in to their body and not use their hands to their advantage. Seemed to me that in both cases the defender gained a major advantage by having the ball hit their hand.

If either of those are called it's a very different game. Leicester the last few weeks seemingly should've lost several games, but have kept winning 1-0... can that trend continue?
 
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I completely disagree, at least for the first one (the breakaway where Schmeichel was beat). Simpson's arms were right next to his body and the ball hit him on the elbow; if his arms were magically not there, it would have hit him square in the chest. I think that one was an excellent non-call.

Not sure of which other one you're referring to.
 

Dummy Hoy

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I think it's easy to discount the job the defense and midfield do when the other team attack. They are really well drilled and compact. palace had a lot of the ball, but how many great chances did they create. Not many. They had a couple of great crosses, but no one got on the end of them...that's a lot to do with the Leicester defense marking tight and defending well as a unit and shoring up the space in the box. They seldom get opened up, teams don't often get behind them. I think Wes Morgan was 100% in tackles made yesterday and he and Huth are a great pairing.

it is a cliche but this is how you win titles, grind out wins when you're not at your best. At some point Vardy will get a few goals, and Drinkwater has had his bad game (v Newcastle) and was immense yesterday. It's not easy to take 13 points from 15 at any point in the season, and teams are sitting much deeper against them, which might be why Vardy isn't getting in behind nearly as much as he was in the first half of the season. They do the little things well. ie. against Newcastle they ran the clock down like bosses. They had a about three solid minutes in and around corner flags. It's amazing how many teams can't or don't do that. They aren't scoring many goals, bu they're keeping it tight at the back and not conceding many.

Spurs have some tough games coming up, both teams will drop points. It'll be interesting to see how Leicester play when they really need to chase a game. I know they got a late winner against Norwich, but at this stage of the season, it seams like every couple of matches is a new phase of the season. Fairytales don't happen too often in sport these days, so i think that's where my doubts stem from.
This was how Leicester won the championship 2 years ago under Nigel Pearson.
 

fletcherpost

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I think if Southampton had gotten one of the two penalty shouts nobody really could complain. But, both were close calls and sometimes they will be given sometimes not, rightly or wrongly...and it's getting that outside of stonewall ball to hand penalty shouts (like the one Norwich conceded on Saturday v Newcastle, that was a stonewaller) most hand balls are debateable and are being debated. Huth is a very clever player, as a defender. He knows where his hand is. Some players might tuck the hand in, but not Huth and he's not obligated to. And it's a close range shot, struck at pace and it's ball to hand. I dunno if he could get his hand out of the way in time even if he wanted to, which he doesn't IMO. I think during the game there wasn't a major appeal from the Southampton players, there was a shout but not a mass crowding of the ref, but my memory is sketchy.

The Simpson handball, again, it is smart play by Simpson, but he was running, he was trying to block the shot he knew was coming, his arms were in motion, as they had to be for him to stoor it to cover the shot...but they were pretty well tucked in. Sometimes you get them both, sometimes one sometimes none. A few pundits are saying it's time to do away with the ball to hand stuff and if it's a handball, just give a pen. But we'll see a lot of players kicking to the hand in matches, so that might well be another can of worms should it come to pass. A halfway solution is let the officials review the play. It's so hard to make those calls live, when you might not be perfectly sighted. They say luck evens out over a season. Leicester are getting some breaks, no doubt.
 

Tony the Pony

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Handballs used to be defined as fouls when they were intended handballs. The sport has completely gone away from that, and I hear the weirdest arguments on a weekly basis by all these talking heads on TV.

Simpson's was 100% intentional. He knew exactly what he was doing. Huth less so, but botherline.

You can eliminate the noise very easily; redefine the rules. Every time the ball strikes arm or hand it's a foul. No more controversies, but we'll see an influx of players trying to hit defenders' arms inside the box.

Then again, the sport can do with a rule change. I remember when they changed the rule that the keeper could pick up back passes (was it 1991? 1992?). ONe of the first matches I visited with new rules was QPR - Arsenal at Loftus Road and seeing the goalies trying to kick away back passes was hilarious
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, make it simple--if your arm/hand is away from your body (making yourself bigger) and is struck, it's a foul. Defenders will have to adjust.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The laws of the game require the player to have handled the ball deliberately, although all of the guidance about the laws has settled on the notion that it requires a "deliberate act," which can be just a bit different from deliberately handling.

By and large, I think they have it right. Hand to ball and distance are the two criteria that are drilled into refs and while they don't always judge it right in real time, those seem like the right criteria for the impossible task of reading a player's mind.

I don't think any touching of the ball with the arm or hand should be a foul, given that handling in the box is a penalty. It's too punitive and what you'll end up seeing is players in any part of the box trying to put the ball off a player's hand to draw a penalty. If soccer has a problem in this department it is that most penalties are converted, and scores in soccer usually average around or under 2 goals per side. So, it's unlike pretty much any other infringement penalty in any other sport -- a hockey penalty shot is probably the closest and it's still considerably different. When you add in that a single infringement can cost a team a goal, a player, and the player for the next game, you really either need to reduce the penalty for infringement or do what soccer tries to do now -- let refs be the judge whether the infringement is in the class of fouls for which the sanction given bears at least some rational relationship to the culpability and player malfeasance.

I assume that nobody is going to favor coming up with some sanction short of a penalty shot for certain classes of fouls even if they occur in the box, so I think for better or worse what we have now is good. Moving to two refs would solve a lot of problems and probably lead to more consistency on this and every other call, but that ain't happening.
 
By and large, I think they have it right. Hand to ball and distance are the two criteria that are drilled into refs and while they don't always judge it right in real time, those seem like the right criteria for the impossible task of reading a player's mind.
I think the rule makes sense, but I think there's too much inconsistency in how the rule is applied and interpreted, both by referees on the pitch and by fans and pundits off of it. As such, I'm in favor of this:
You can eliminate the noise very easily; redefine the rules. Every time the ball strikes arm or hand it's a foul. No more controversies, but we'll see an influx of players trying to hit defenders' arms inside the box.
This is particularly relevant when you consider the forthcoming arrival of instant replay - controversies will be magnified when replay officials asked to judge intent still get key decisions wrong.
 

teddykgb

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Attackers already do everything they can to earn penalties. It would be complete madness to make all ball to hand contact a penalty. We need fewer technicality penalties not more
 

Bailey10

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Leicester's last 6 fixtures:

Gameweek 33 Sunderland (A)
Gameweek 34 West Ham (H)
Gameweek 35 Swansea (H)
Gameweek 36 Man Utd (A)
Gameweek 37 Everton (H)
Gameweek 38 Chelsea (A)

The foxes would need to drop a minimum 7 points (assuming Spurs win all of their remaining fixtures) to lose the title.

Anybody see that happening at this point? I believe if they manage to get 6 points from the next three gameweeks, the title is theirs. Relegation battlers Sunderland and Swansea are more likely to show up and give Leicester a run for their money than Everton and Chelsea, who will have nothing to play for in the last two weeks of the season.
 

SocrManiac

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The one flaw I see is Vardy's hotheadedness. I can totally see him getting a violent conduct ban at the worst possible time.
I hate to quote myself but there's an interesting parallel in Serie A. Gonzalo Higuain, who is arguably more important to Napoli with 30 goals, just got handed a 4 match ban for losing his mind at a weak second yellow. Napoli were already effectively 6 points down (they had essentially already lost by the time Higuain was off). It was a long shot to begin with, but if the ban stands I don't see any way Napoli can mount a title challenge.

Is Vardy worth those extra points should he do something inexplicably stupid?
 

Dummy Hoy

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I'm confused...are you asking if Jamie Vardy (21 goals) is worth being in the line-up because he might (uncarded for 11 weeks) do something rash?

I'm actually really confused, because you're an excellent poster in this forum but that's an insane query if I'm reading it correctly.
 

fletcherpost

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I think Vardy is on 5 yellow cards and the Amnesty starts after the second Sunday in April. I don't think he's gonna blow his top and fire into a defender and risk a straight red or retaliate and get sent off. He might have a devlish side, most good forwards do have a bit of anger in them, but he's also a pro, in a team going for an unlikely EPL title. He knows his value to the team, even when he's not scoring. A huge part of his game is getting in behind the defense and playing the ball just before the defender makes the tackle and winning a free kick. He's done it countless times, he knows it's coming and he plays for it. He goes arse over tit pretty much every match.

If Socrmaniac calls it and Vardy loses his mind and fires into an opposing player, with violence on his mind, fair enough, he shall be annointed as the Nostradamus of this forum and duly credited.
 

SocrManiac

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I'm confused...are you asking if Jamie Vardy (21 goals) is worth being in the line-up because he might (uncarded for 11 weeks) do something rash?
Not at all. I originally responded to the "This team is bulletproof." Perhaps I didn't make it clear enough, but the only fringe case I can see where this team collapsing is if they lose a major piece for an extended period. The only guy I see out there with an unstable streak, outside of potentially Danny Simpson, is Jamie Vardy. I think this team cares about each other too much for one guy to lose it or for his teammates to let it happen.

The side is built on consistency and understanding both the team's overall strategy and how the squadmates are reacting. Kante and Drinkwater have very distinct roles, but when Kante needs a spell from the high press they seamlessly interchange. You'll see it happen in-game and won't even know how they agreed to it. The defense prevents a team from working up the center of the pitch, then invites crosses and dares opponents to win them. This requires an absolutely psychic partnership between Huth and Morgan to control the portion of the box that Schmeichel can't and it's working flawlessly.

The main flaw I see doesn't seem to bite them. Schmeichel doesn't communicate well with his defense. More often than I'd like to see he's coming out to challenge for a cross and somebody is taking it away from him. If it happens once in awhile it's not a huge deal but it's a pattern. Still, it'll cost them a goal or two by the end of the season, not the title.
 

Gunfighter 09

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I think Vardy is on 5 yellow cards and the Amnesty starts after the second Sunday in April. I don't think he's gonna blow his top and fire into a defender and risk a straight red or retaliate and get sent off. He might have a devlish side, most good forwards do have a bit of anger in them, but he's also a pro, in a team going for an unlikely EPL title. He knows his value to the team, even when he's not scoring. A huge part of his game is getting in behind the defense and playing the ball just before the defender makes the tackle and winning a free kick. He's done it countless times, he knows it's coming and he plays for it. He goes arse over tit pretty much every match.

If Socrmaniac calls it and Vardy loses his mind and fires into an opposing player, with violence on his mind, fair enough, he shall be annointed as the Nostradamus of this forum and duly credited.
It is much more likely that Spurs squander what little chance they have with Dier getting his 10th yellow this week or noted hotheads Alli or Lamela getting a bad red than Vardy going crazy.


Leicester's last 6 fixtures:

Gameweek 33 Sunderland (A)
Gameweek 34 West Ham (H)
Gameweek 35 Swansea (H)
Gameweek 36 Man Utd (A)
Gameweek 37 Everton (H)
Gameweek 38 Chelsea (A)

The foxes would need to drop a minimum 7 points (assuming Spurs win all of their remaining fixtures) to lose the title.

Anybody see that happening at this point? I believe if they manage to get 6 points from the next three gameweeks, the title is theirs. Relegation battlers Sunderland and Swansea are more likely to show up and give Leicester a run for their money than Everton and Chelsea, who will have nothing to play for in the last two weeks of the season.
West Hamm will still be fighting for Europe and potentially even 4th in week 33. With their talent, they could (and have) beat anyone. You are spot on with the two relegation battling teams, both of who probably only have budgeted a point against LCFC, so they are likely to sit back and play for 0-0. Both ManU and Chelsea have been especially adept at bus parking in a manner that would neutralize the Foxes counterattacking style. Chelsea could also be battling for a European slot at 5 or 6th or even 7th, depending on how the FA Cup goes. I agree that Everton has nothing to play for and looks quite certain to get cut up by Leicester's style seeing how they have given up goals on the counter all year long.
 

SocrManiac

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Too much has been made of the counterattacking style of late. Going back the last six games I don't see a single goal on the counter.

They certainly took clubs by surprise in the first part of the season but lately teams have been hanging back. In fact, you could argue this has made them more effective at defending set pieces. Sides are more players back on set pieces with Vardy alone- usually two, sometimes three. If somebody is with him (Okazaki) a team might have four guys defending for their own set piece.
 

sachmoney

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Only caught the end of the Southampton game, but it looked like Leicester's high press was highly effective. Southampton had a dreadful time holding onto the ball. There wasn't really a hold onto the lead mentality. Leicester killed that game off. Leicester seemed so together and committed. Just the way that team is carrying itself, it seems like there is so much self belief that it's a matter of when not if, which I'm not sure you could say about a team like Arsenal. I haven't seen many Spurs games lately, but I'd add that I've seen more from them than Arsenal too.

It's amazing how transformed this team is. I remember watching them early last year and thinking "wow, this team isn't going to score enough goals to stay up." It seemed like Ulloa was the only one that could score. David Nugent was dreadful. Both Vardy and Mahrez have come into their own. This is truly a dream season for them. Such an amazing transformation.
 

teddykgb

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In regards to the "on the counter" stuff, it's somewhat interesting in that they tend to have more of the ball against worst competition (duh). But they've still been ultra counter oriented against other big sides.

In Leicester's past 5 matches they've had the following possession numbers:(SOU) 46%, (CPY)44%, (NEW)50%, (WAT) 50%, (WBA) 65%

But if you go back to City/Arsenal/Spurs/Pool matches in the new year: 38% (TOT), 34% (MC), 28% (ARS), 36% (LIV). They took 9 points from these matches.

Again, some of this point is obvious. They have less of the ball against more talented teams. But the story of this season has been their ability to repeatedly take all 3 points when playing with about 1/3rd of the possession of their opponents in the big matches. This is normally a recipe for draws or worse, but they've been amazing at converting these situations into all the points.

Now that I'm down the rabbit hole, matches with ~40% possession or less (my arbitrary definition):

@WHU 30% (W) 2-1
(H)TOT 35% (D) 1-1
(H)ARS 42% (L) 2-5
@NOR 34% (W)2-1
(H)WAT 41% (W)2-1
(H)MUN 31% (D)1-1
@SWA 41% (W)3-0
(H)CHE 34% (W)2-1
@EVE 33% (W)3-2
@LIV 35% (L)0-1
(H)MCY 39% (D)0-0
@TOT 38% (W)1-0
(H)LIV 36% (W)2-0
@MCY 34% (W)3-1
@ARS 28% (L)1-2

That's 15 matches where they've had about a third of the ball. On 32 matches played that's nearly half their matches. They've got 30 points from these matches with only 3 losses. Truly remarkable. They've scored 2 goals or more in 9 of them while having this little of the ball.

Some of it is schedule related but it is true that they've had far more of the ball since they lost to Arsenal. Still usually around 45-50% as opposed to some of these low numbers.
 

SocrManiac

Tommy Seebach’s mustache
SoSH Member
Apr 15, 2006
8,629
Somers, CT
Great stuff, Teddy.

Do you think Ranieri changed the script after the Arsenal game? He must have felt the time coming when they couldn't surprise teams anymore. Having an additional game plan is one thing, executing it to this degree is a completely different animal.
 

teddykgb

Member
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Jul 16, 2005
11,012
Chelmsford, MA
No, I really don't. I think it's mostly a quirk of scheduling. They've played Norwich, West Brom, Watford, Newcastle, Palace, and Soton since Arsenal. Most of those teams are shit and LC would have more of the ball. Against Palace and Southampton they again lost possession at 44% and 46% but these were much closer. If you look at the first matchup versus these squads, however, the numbers are about the same.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,144
AZ
Perhaps I didn't make it clear enough, but the only fringe case I can see where this team collapsing is if they lose a major piece for an extended period.
Still too early to say this, I think. Maybe next week at this point or the week after, but I don't think we're at the point yet where extraordinary scenarios about Vardy losing his mind are necessary to knock Leicester City from the top.

I think one of Arsenal or Spurs or both are going to close out the year very strong, at least until mathematically eliminated. A reasonable expectation is for 77 points to be good enough to take the league for Leicester, maybe 78 since they likely will not hold the tiebreaker if it comes down to it. Eight points in six games is not a given. Easily attainable, given current form, but they are not dominating games and it doesn't take much for a run where the breaks go the other way for a couple of weeks. There is a reason that teams like Leicester City do not win the premier league, and why having them win would be so special, and it's exactly because 38 games is a long long time to sustain excellence and hold off challengers. The finish line is in sight, but plenty of good teams playing good football have found ways to do worse than 8 points in 6 games.
 

candylandriots

unkempt
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Mar 30, 2004
12,324
Berlin
Maybe I'm showing my ignorance, but every time I look at this thread, I think to myself, "WTF does Chat S--- Get Banged, mean?"
 

fletcherpost

sosh's feckin' poet laureate
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Jul 15, 2005
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Saw a stat the other day that said Leicester allow more crosses into the box than any other team, but only a small portion of these crosses actually reach an attacker. What tends to happen is if, say, the oppostion attack down the left flank the wideplayer often has a decent amount of space to make the cross. The Leicester central defenders and the right back push in and cover the goal area, the defensive midfielders are also usually in the 18 yard box and the cross is headed or cleared and they have the makings of a counter attack with Vardy around the half-way line and Mahrez and other pacy players to back up the attack, and they do have a lot of pace in the team.

The suggestion is that they allow the crosses because they're so well drilled in defense now, (moreso than in the first half of the season when they were conceding goals) and it helps facilitate their conter attacking strategy. Troy Deeney was on MOTD2 last week and he said from his (an attacking perspective) they are a nightmare to play against because they cover the goal area so well, that it's hard to get a clean shot on goal. Southampton had a lot of the ball last week, fired in a lot of crosses, and only got in behind the defense a couple of times. That's not a coincidence. Also if their counter attack breaks down, as it often does, they still have bodies in midfield and in defense to hold off the opposition whilst players run back and they reset for defense. It's cool to watch and more often than not it's Kante who is the hero, going after the ball, like a dog after a bone (as Ian Wright described him.)

And, just like any sport, the passing of time allows teams to watch matches and do their analyses and change tactics and strategy. it's also true that teams like WBA, Norwich have sat back, played for the clean sheet, and that's been something Leicester have adapted to. At the start of the season, they were favourites to go down, even though they had a good finish to the previous season, teams weren't fearful of them, like they would a Man City or an Arsenal. It takes time to adapt, or even just accept that a stretch of good form might be more than temporary. Just like it took teams a while to realize that early season Chelsea weren't that good, as a team. Chelsea were shit for weeks before players on opposing teams actually said in post match interviews they were going into those matches expecting to get something from the game. I think the reverse was true regarding Leicester in the first half of the season.

Even now a lot of people in the game - Souness and Hoddle and Waddle for example, struggle to accept what Leicester are doing.

Be interesting to see how it plays out against Sunderland. They need three points. They're at home, they have it all to play for.

EDIT: regarding possession, it's not how much you have the ball but what you do with it. Anyone can pass the ball across the back four, play it to a holding midfielder who plays it back to the right back and back along the line it goes...it's possession, but it's not gonna win you fuck all. Pretty sure Swansea were getting a lot of the ball in the first half of the season, and were losing games left right and centre. Penetration is more important.
 
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CodPiece XL

Member
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Jun 4, 2007
2,422
Scottsdale, AZ.
To add to what Deeney was also saying and I'm kind of going from memory. In general you want to disrupt the center halves and drag them out of position but Huth and Morgan don't bite. They never isolate themselves. One takes the near post and the other occupies the middle of the box at corners. Essentially goading the opposing team into crossing the ball because they are confident they clear whatever is thrown at them.

It also helps that the fullbacks are well drilled. More to the point, the whole team knows exactly what is expected of them and the work rate is exceptional.