Will Bryce Harper be a Yankee in 2019?

Apisith · Sep 28, 2015

I think it'd be more fun speculating how big of a contract he'd get. If he tests the market, will he get $35m/year? $40m? He'll probably get 8 years, but will he get 10? 12?

Al Zarilla · Sep 28, 2015

Curious about Harper's favorite player being Mantle, with their lives barely overlapping, much less the younger guy ever being able to see the older one play. Mantle was definitely one of the most exciting players of all time, great power and great speed, good looking guy too, which added to his popularity. Harper is also, I believe, a big baseball historian, making it more likely he'd develop a fascination with a couple of generations older player. Nothing wrong with that, just rambling here.

mt8thsw9th · Sep 28, 2015

Plus given how awful MLB was at allowing clips of players ending up on Youtube for more than a few hours, I'm not sure how he could have seen much of him playing.

derekson · Sep 28, 2015

Harper is going to get something like 10/$400M.

Spacemans Bong · Sep 28, 2015

jon abbey said:
I guess it's from his dad, it says in this article his other two favorite players are/were Pete Rose and George Brett:

"I love him. He was unbelievable — incredible," he says. "Mantle always was my favorite player," with his love for him stirred by his father. "I mean, watching his games on ESPN Classic and hearing things about him, he was the typical corn-fed white kid from Oklahoma," Harper says. "And so cool to watch play. I've always tried to (model) my game after his — how he played, what he accomplished. What better player to put a number on for."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/nationals/2013/03/28/bryce-harper-washington-nationals-mickey-mantle/2029681/

His dad ain't that old either - I think Harper's parents had him young, so the old man's on the right side of 50. You're probably going back to Grandpa Harper to find somebody who watched The Mick play.

Nothing wrong with looking up to Rose, Brett and Mantle, but even as a sports history geek from a very young age, it's a little weird not to have any heroes who played when you were alive. I guess Harper's dad taped a lot of ESPN Classic or something. Maybe Ken Burns too.

Flunky · Sep 28, 2015

this exact thread exists on NYYfans.

Apisith · Sep 28, 2015

If the average cost of a win for signing a free agent continues to rise to around $7.5m/win, and Harper continues to be a world-beater, averaging 7-10 wins a year, could he break $500m?

His first year under his new contract would be in his age 27 season. You have guys signing 7 year deals in their age 30 and 31 seasons, so I could see Boras asking for a 12 or 13 year deal. If he gets a 10+ year deal, the AAV only has to be 40ish million per year to get him to $500m total. It also helps that his swing is perfect for Yankee Stadium so they'll be all over him. It's a much safer signing from a long term perspective because he could still hit a ton of homers when the other parts of his game declines.

Alternatively, if Boras wanted to go for a shorter contract route, would any team be willing to stump up $50m/year to have him for his age 27-31 seasons? Then he gets to hit the market again at not too old an age and let salaries continue to inflate for a few more years.

glennhoffmania · Sep 28, 2015

Stanton got 13/325 at age 25 before hitting FA and without the Yankees being bidders. Harper will get at least 10 years and at least $350m in today's market environment and in 2015 dollars. In 2018 I'm guessing 12/480m. And the Yankees will give him an opt out that he can exercise in all even numbered years.

JimD · Sep 28, 2015

I don't think there is any doubt Harper will be a Yankee on Opening Day 2019.

foulkehampshire · Sep 28, 2015

JimD said:
I don't think there is any doubt Harper will be a Yankee on Opening Day 2019.

Like Stanton, Lester, or Hanley?

This is a pretty tired idea. With revenue sharing, even small market organizations can afford to pony up for superstars.

RSN Diaspora · Sep 28, 2015

Shouldn't we have this thread in Inside the Lines III?

DourDoerr · Sep 28, 2015

jon abbey said:
I guess it's from his dad, it says in this article his other two favorite players are/were Pete Rose and George Brett:

"I love him. He was unbelievable — incredible," he says. "Mantle always was my favorite player," with his love for him stirred by his father. "I mean, watching his games on ESPN Classic and hearing things about him, he was the typical corn-fed white kid from Oklahoma," Harper says. "And so cool to watch play. I've always tried to (model) my game after his — how he played, what he accomplished. What better player to put a number on for."

Interesting that he'd use that phrase. I used to hear it all the time - and I think they used in even in "The Natural" to describe the reliever who blows the save - but don't hear it much any more. I remember that it was used a bit when Gossage was up for the Hall of Fame. One point allegedly in Gossage's favor was that he was one of the last of that breed. Harper using the phrase shows he's probably aware (at least more than most current ballplayers) of the game's history. I like Harper as he seems to march to a different drummer which is refreshing given the demands of sponsors, the baseball establishment, etc. to conform.

mt8thsw9th · Sep 28, 2015

Or he's just proud of his white heritage. Due to corn subsidies, corn is in pretty much everything we eat, so he probably did consume a lot of corn growing up in Las Vegas.

loshjott · Sep 28, 2015

I can't find the quote via a google search now, but I remember when the Nats came to Fenway in 2012, Harper said something to the effect that it's an honor to stand in the same batter's box where Ted Williams stood. He was 19 at the time. The kid clearly appreciates baseball history.

mt8thsw9th · Sep 28, 2015

It was the fourth hit under Harper/Fenway/Ted Williams:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/post/bryce-harper-stephen-strasburg-ready-for-fenway-park-debuts/2012/06/08/gJQAj5HcOV_blog.html

grimshaw · Sep 28, 2015

I would actually welcome him being a Yankee since A-Rod will be gone and they will be completely devoid of douches. It's fun to actively root against someone on a rival team.
I didn't think Braves fans could get fired up about anything, but this is a fun article on why he's so disliked. http://www.talkingchop.com/2015/6/22/8821743/atlanta-braves-washington-nationals-bryce-harper-hate-rivalry-chipper-jones

JimD · Sep 28, 2015

So, assuming that Aaron Judge is the real deal in right field, would Harper play center in pinstripes and push Ellsbury to left?

yecul · Sep 28, 2015

Out of the lineup today. Something to monitor in the run up to '19.

Bryce Harper is not in the Nationals' starting lineup Monday afternoon against the Reds.

Harper made an early departure from Sunday's game after getting choked by teammate Jonathan Papelbon in the Nationals dugout. It's a big mess right now in Washington. Matt den Dekker will start in right field Monday in a lineup that features very few of the club's regulars

reggiecleveland · Sep 28, 2015

We should speculate on who play RF if he sign for 400 million for the Yankees, then gets hooked on crack and ets arrested with 60 pounds of cocaine?
Who would play RF then?
How would the Yankees approach crack as a subject locally in their media plan? Nationally?

If they won a world series while he was on crack would the Yankees act like he was not part of it like they did when Arod carried them to 2009? I mean cold they disown Harper as easily if he got caught doing something bad? Would they forgive as quickly if if turned out he could still hit, like Arod?

This is a fun thread!

EDIT: Thanks for allowing speculative scenarios!

Leather · Sep 29, 2015

Harper may or may not run out groundballs with sufficient moxie.

Not a True Yankee.

chrisfont9 · Oct 6, 2015

If Harper is a bitchy asshole who's hated in his clubhouse, I'm not so sure the Yankees will want him as much as he may want them. The last thing they need is another unbelievably expensive guy who the fans don't actually like. And they don't sign everyone they can afford anymore, just the guys who fit a need.

Papelbon's Poutine · Oct 6, 2015

I've never seen anything suggesting that his teammates hate him and the fans love him. So, no. Most of the hate has been from opponents.

glennhoffmania · Oct 6, 2015

This is a fan base that cheers for A-Rod on a daily basis after he made a total ass of himself and became the most hated man in baseball. I think they'd be ok with Harper.

loshjott · Oct 6, 2015

chrisfont9 said:
If Harper is a bitchy asshole who's hated in his clubhouse, I'm not so sure the Yankees will want him as much as he may want them. The last thing they need is another unbelievably expensive guy who the fans don't actually like. And they don't sign everyone they can afford anymore, just the guys who fit a need.

Find one source for any of that, please. Harper's teammates and Nats fans love him.

LuckyBen · Oct 6, 2015

loshjott said:
Find one source for any of that, please. Harper's teammates and Nats fans love him.

Well there is the video of him getting strangled by the teams closer. I know the fans love Harper, but it wouldn't surprise me if the stories come flooding out when he leaves.

Papelbon's Poutine · Oct 6, 2015

LuckyBen said:
Well there is the video of him getting strangled by the teams closer. I know the fans love Harper, but it wouldn't surprise me if the stories come flooding out when he leaves.

The notorious dbag that had been there for about a month? Yeah, namesake or not, I'm not putting a lot of weight into Papelbon's assessment of teammates. Did you happen to catch the video the next day of Scherzer goofing off with him and fake choking him?

loshjott · Oct 6, 2015

LuckyBen said:
Well there is the video of him getting strangled by the teams closer. I know the fans love Harper, but it wouldn't surprise me if the stories come flooding out when he leaves.

This is a joke, right? Is my sarcasm meter off kilter?

chrisfont9 · Oct 7, 2015

I said "if" Harper is unpopular. There's a question out there when he gets attacked by a teammate and supposedly Papelbon is the one getting support in the clubhouse. I have no idea what his teammates really think of him. I just said that that if he's disliked that'd be one reason he might not end up in NY. Frankly this entire thread is a bit silly since the premise is that since Harper seems to have a soft spot for the Yankees, he'll end up there. That's pretty ridiculous. For starters, every Boras client has a connection to the Yankees, supposedly. Secondly, as I said, the Yankees aren't reflexively signing big name players for the headlines. They're a team that overspends but on players who fit their plan. We have no idea what their plan will be in four years or whenever it is Harper hits the market.

Papelbon's Poutine · Oct 7, 2015

Where are you seeing Papelbon getting support in the clubhouse? Not being snarky, but do you have a link for that because pretty much everything I've seen has been universally against him.

Average Reds · Oct 7, 2015

chrisfont9 said:
I said "if" Harper is unpopular. There's a question out there when he gets attacked by a teammate and supposedly Papelbon is the one getting support in the clubhouse. I have no idea what his teammates really think of him. I just said that that if he's disliked that'd be one reason he might not end up in NY. Frankly this entire thread is a bit silly since the premise is that since Harper seems to have a soft spot for the Yankees, he'll end up there. That's pretty ridiculous. For starters, every Boras client has a connection to the Yankees, supposedly. Secondly, as I said, the Yankees aren't reflexively signing big name players for the headlines. They're a team that overspends but on players who fit their plan. We have no idea what their plan will be in four years or whenever it is Harper hits the market.

There is reason to believe that Bryce Harper may be a bit of a prima donna. Unless you have information that you are not sharing, there's no reason to believe that he's a "bitchy asshole who is hated in his clubhouse." To use that half-assed speculation as a jumping off point to explain why the Yankees won't or shouldn't want him is laughable and paints you as naive in the extreme.

Harper is a generational talent who will be turning 26 shortly after he hits free agency. I have no idea whether he has his mind set on playing for the Yankees or not, but if he does, I can pretty much guarantee that the Yankees will find room for him.

chrisfont9 · Oct 7, 2015

Average Reds said:
There is reason to believe that Bryce Harper may be a bit of a prima donna. Unless you have information that you are not sharing, there's no reason to believe that he's a "bitchy asshole who is hated in his clubhouse." To use that half-assed speculation as a jumping off point to explain why the Yankees won't or shouldn't want him is laughable and paints you as naive in the extreme.

Harper is a generational talent who will be turning 26 shortly after he hits free agency. I have no idea whether he has his mind set on playing for the Yankees or not, but if he does, I can pretty much guarantee that the Yankees will find room for him.

Why are you asking me for information about the clubhouse? I already clarified what I was saying, and NONE OF US has any information about anyone's clubhouse.

chrisfont9 · Oct 7, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Where are you seeing Papelbon getting support in the clubhouse? Not being snarky, but do you have a link for that because pretty much everything I've seen has been universally against him.

In the first few days I heard a few pundits on radio saying Papelbon was the one getting support. I see one online source (CJ Nitkowski) saying the players support Harper. Then there's this.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/surprise--surprise--anonymous-players-side-with-jonathan-papelbon-over-bryce-harper-150406768.html

So no, I am not making this up.

EvilEmpire · Oct 7, 2015

So nothing from Harper's teammates? OK.

glennhoffmania · Oct 7, 2015

That sounds like some anonymous former and current players around the league talking about Harper not hustling on a fly ball, not current teammates of Harper backing Papelbon in their dispute. That's a pretty significant difference.

rembrat · Oct 7, 2015

EvilEmpire said:
So nothing from Harper's teammates? OK.

He's a douche but he's their douche.. for now. See Yasiel Puig on how that can go south in a hurry.

EvilEmpire · Oct 7, 2015

He's a douche but he's their douche.. for now. See Yasiel Puig on how that can go south in a hurry.

Oh, I get all that. I just think this is all overblown. I'm also somewhat amused that one of the few guys that could beat Harper in a douche-off is Papelbon.

Sampo Gida · Feb 9, 2016

I need to see him repeat last year and stay healthy for the next 2 years before I assign a monetary value to him in 2019. He is a great talent, but last year he feasted off some pretty awful divisional pitching (Mets excepted), and he has had a tendency to injury.

In a perfect world, Hal probably does not want to spend that kind of money on 1 player. Winning does not seem to mean as much to him, so long as he does not lose enough to drop attendance under 3 million. They already have 57 million committed to 4 players in 2019, or 35 million to 3 if Tanaka opts out, and getting under the LT threshold seems important to him. If Tanaka opts out, only Severino is left from the current rotation and the farm does not look all that stacked with SP prospects, and they are expensive on the open market. A lot depends on the LT threshold and how the top prospects pan out I guess, as well as Cashmans ability to roll the dice in trades.

Way too many variables for me to answer now. Boras is obviously going to exact top dollar for him. I wouldn't bet on him being a Yankee, although Boras et all will want to make sure teams know they are the favorites to land him

ThePrideofShiner · Jul 4, 2018

If he could learn to play a solid first base, think of the positional flexibility he could offer.

SemperFidelisSox · Jul 4, 2018

Torres 2B
Judge RF
Harper 1B
Stanton DH
Sanchez C
Gregorius SS
Hicks CF
Andujar 3B
Florial LF

It’s happening. Harper will move like A-Rod.

Will Bryce Harper be a Yankee in 2019?

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