2016 Broncos Thread: Elway or the Highway

86spike

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Just starting this for later.

Lots of question marks that need answers over the next few weeks/months. Maintaining the D, fixing the OL and the QB question will keep Elway busy right away.

I'm looking forward to what lies ahead.
 

edmunddantes

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Congratulations to the Broncos.

Can they really keep the band together?

They aren't horribly in cap hell, but they do have a good amount of FA if I recall correctly.

Elway is really going to earn his salary to keep a good team together.
 

Slow Rheal

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They've got some massive negotiating/decisions to make re: their 2016 FA list highlighted by: V Miller, E Mathis, Osweiler, R Hillman, B Marhsall, M Jackson, D Trevathan, CJ Anderson, and B McManus
 

kelpapa

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It's been mentioned on this board several times, but Talib and Ware are probably gone. It'll cost them $4.6 mm to cut both Ware and Talib per Spotrac. Talib's cap hit next year is almost $10 mm and Ware's is $11.6 mm.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Add LT Ryan Harris to that list, though Clady should be back. The salary cap situation boils down to this, they will have less than $5M in cap room after they:

-Cut Manning
-Tag Von Miller
-Tender CJ Anderson and Brandon Marshall - I am assuming it will take a 2nd round tender to keep them
-Re-sign their ERFAs, including contributors like Paradis and McManus
-Pay their draft picks.

That leaves them still having to pay Osweiler, Mathis, Jackson, Trevathan, Hillman and other depth players like Antonio Smith, Norwood, Bolden and Keo.

The two obvious places to make cap room are cutting or restructuring Ryan Clady and cutting or restructuring Demarcus Ware.

The net result is that they are going to have a new QB next year (not necessarily a bad thing), still have a patchwork offensive line and likely have lost the depth that makes their front seven so effective. They still will have excellent receivers and the best secondary in the game. It will take an amazing draft, players like Ware and Miller willing to take a discount and some great injury luck to get them back next year.
 

j44thor

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What is the cap implication if Manning retires vs. they cut him? If it is significant that gives Manning some serious leverage.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Oz. He can't be happy that he got benched thanks to a CJ Anderson fumble which obviously cost him a lot of $$. I'm sure he must also think that he should be a SB champion QB today.

I'll be very surprised if he is back in DEN.
 

86spike

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They've got some massive negotiating/decisions to make re: their 2016 FA list highlighted by: V Miller, E Mathis, Osweiler, R Hillman, B Marhsall, M Jackson, D Trevathan, CJ Anderson, and B McManus
They will keep Miller, Osweiler, Marshall and McManus.

Maybe Anderson comes back, but Hillman hits the bricks. I suspect Elway will look for RBs in the middle of the draft.

Jackson and Trevathan are going to get more money elsewhere and Mathis should retire.

Another potential cost saver will be cutting Colquitt. He punted well down the stretch but has been pretty shitty for a few years in general (and gets paid a ton).

Lots to do and it will be very interesting to see if Elway continues to put the eggs in the defensive basket or if he tries to balance the O. More to support Osweiler.
 

86spike

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What is the cap implication if Manning retires vs. they cut him? If it is significant that gives Manning some serious leverage.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Oz. He can't be happy that he got benched thanks to a CJ Anderson fumble which obviously cost him a lot of $$. I'm sure he must also think that he should be a SB champion QB today.

I'll be very surprised if he is back in DEN.
I think retirement saves Denver about $2M on the cap vs cutting him.
 

j44thor

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They will keep Miller, Osweiler, Marshall and McManus.

Maybe Anderson comes back, but Hillman hits the bricks. I suspect Elway will look for RBs in the middle of the draft.

Jackson and Trevathan are going to get more money elsewhere and Mathis should retire.

Another potential cost saver will be cutting Colquitt. He punted well down the stretch but has been pretty shitty for a few years in general (and gets paid a ton).

Lots to do and it will be very interesting to see if Elway continues to put the eggs in the defensive basket or if he tries to balance the O. More to support Osweiler.
Why are you so confident osweiler comes back? He essentially saved the season only to be sent back to the bench after the offense had a bad half that was largely not his fault.

I'll be surprised if there isn't some resentment towards the organization on his part.
His paycheck would be looking a lot different this off-season if he was the SB championship QB. There will be teams interested in his services given the dearth of starting QBs in the nfl.
 

wibi

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I think retirement saves Denver about $2M on the cap vs cutting him.
Unless there is something different in his contract from what OTC is showing you wont gain any additional savings by cutting him versus him retiring.
 

86spike

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Why are you so confident osweiler comes back? He essentially saved the season only to be sent back to the bench after the offense had a bad half that was largely not his fault.

I'll be surprised if there isn't some resentment towards the organization on his part.
His paycheck would be looking a lot different this off-season if he was the SB championship QB. There will be teams interested in his services given the dearth of starting QBs in the nfl.
We'll see.

He's been saying all the right things about team first, etc. But he might want to move on. What would his options be? Cleveland, Philly, Houston, SF, Buffalo? None of those teams seem positioned to compete for a title the way Denver could be positioned (free agency decisions pending). In addition, Brock grew up in Montana and seems happy to be a Bronco. Unless Denver low balls him, I bet he'll re-sign.

Of course, it's also distinctly possible that Elway and Kubiak don't think he's good enough to merit big money, so maybe they will choose to go in a different direction (although options at QB are pretty grim).
 
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In my view, Osweiler comes back because the team that drafted him - with QB God John Elway at the helm - just won a Super Bowl and it's clearly a tremendous situation for him. He is the heir apparent-PLUS, and walks into an offense that can't possibly do worse with him, in his second year as a starter, than it did with The Sherrif, now tucked safely into his home, feet up, double-fisting Papa John's, and making sure that his wife isn't waging her fearless, secret bout with dwarfism all by her lonesome.
 

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By the way, congratulation Spike, starting a title defense thread must be a great feeling. You and J-Man brought some great knowledge this year. Here's wishing the Broncos all the worst, terrible luck and extreme failure in the future.


In terms of Osweiler, I would be shocked if the two sides don't meet in the middle at around $10-12M. The only other QB options that would make sense are some sort of Manning for Brees swap or kicking the tires on RG3, who might be a monster in Kubiak's offense.
 
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If they can time-travel to get 2012 RG3, pre-Shanahan'ing, then I totally agree. Otherwise, I will bet cash money RG3 is no more than a backup next year, anywhere, despite starter needs by teams far poorer and dumber than the Broncos. Elway might be many things, but he is clearly no fool, and I think passing up on 2016-2020 Osweiler in favor of 2016-? Griffin would be one of the biggest QB missteps in several decades.

(Brees, sure, might as well explore it just for leverage)
 

Quiddity

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What is the cap implication if Manning retires vs. they cut him? If it is significant that gives Manning some serious leverage.

Will be interesting to see what happens with Oz. He can't be happy that he got benched thanks to a CJ Anderson fumble which obviously cost him a lot of $$. I'm sure he must also think that he should be a SB champion QB today.

I'll be very surprised if he is back in DEN.
Oz has got to be extremely upset; he did better than Manning did and got screwed over by the team, media and NFL's obsession with giving Manning another title. Denver still wins the Super Bowl and in easier fashion if he is playing as he was performing better than Manning. He could have been seen as possibly the next Tom Brady (while I doubt he'll ever have that type of career, it is a very similar story, coming in to replace a well respected veteran and winning the championship). Instead he sits on the bench while Manning gets gifted a championship through none of his own doing. I could see him leaving the Broncos just to spite them.

I do say this as a biased Pats fan with no knowledge of the Broncos inner working or preferences on the matter.
 

Gunfighter 09

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If they can time-travel to get 2012 RG3, pre-Shanahan'ing, then I totally agree. Otherwise, I will bet cash money RG3 is no more than a backup next year, anywhere, despite starter needs by teams far poorer and dumber than the Broncos. Elway might be many things, but he is clearly no fool, and I think passing up on 2016-2020 Osweiler in favor of 2016-? Griffin would be one of the biggest QB missteps in several decades.

(Brees, sure, might as well explore it just for leverage)
It would certainly be sub-optimal, but if the $4-5M price difference between Osweiler and RG3 is what allows them to keep Ware or Talib it might be worth it.
 

Trlicek's Whip

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It would certainly be sub-optimal, but if the $4-5M price difference between Osweiler and RG3 is what allows them to keep Ware or Talib it might be worth it.
I agree. They just won a ring with one of the worst season-long QB performances of all time with Manning, so Kubiak can just double down on the defense and run another grungy offensive campaign to defend the title. Robert Griffin III has to have more upside than Zombie Manning or at least be as fungible as Osweiller.
 

Morning Woodhead

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I know this sounds crazy, but would some team picking in the high teens - low 20's offer the 2 first round picks for Von Miller.

Seems insane but young pass rushers with his talent don't hit the market that often. A team like the Vikings, Bengals or Rams with decent depth already built up could at least consider it.
 

86spike

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Elway and Kubiak are still close with Mike Shanahan (in fact, Kubiak said last week that the two had been talking about SB prep). No fucking way are they bringing in RG3 if they value Shanahan's opinion of him.

Osweiler's weaknesses during his starting run were:

(a) some inaccuracy passing (mainly on deep shots);
(b) limited ability to read defensive changes at the line;
(c) limited number of plays in his arsenal and handcuffs from the coaches on audibles; and
(d) pocket presence and sensing pressure.

All 4 of those things tend to be typical with young QBs and all can be expected to improve with more time and a full offseason installed as starter. An improved OL will help him immensely as well.

I don't expect him to turn into Aaron Rogers, but as I've said before, he could be Joe Flacco. That's worth investing in, IMO. We'll see if Elway agrees.
 

Valek123

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Why in gods name if you are Denver would you even consider trading him? He just blew up offensive lines through the entire play-off run and should be one of the cornerstones of that defense for the next 4-5 years, the Fans would revolt if you traded him. I'm sure they would offer two 1st round picks and Denver would laugh them off.
 

Stitch01

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Flacco is a reasonable ceiling for Osweiller. He probably wont hit it and will probably be in that below average QB range, but there are worse options and outcomes.
 

86spike

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Flacco is a reasonable ceiling for Osweiller. He probably wont hit it and will probably be in that below average QB range, but there are worse options and outcomes.
And if he ends up being a pedestrian option for a few years, that buys them time to draft/groom a real option.

There's a significant chance that Denver is about to go into a full rebuild given the QB question.
 

Shelterdog

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Why in gods name if you are Denver would you even consider trading him? He just blew up offensive lines through the entire play-off run and should be one of the cornerstones of that defense for the next 4-5 years, the Fans would revolt if you traded him. I'm sure they would offer two 1st round picks and Denver would laugh them off.
Because he's kind of a jackass--there's the tampering with the drug test, a bunch of moving violations, and apparently other failed drug tests. He's an amazing onfield talent and a bit of an off the field risk, and maybe you don't want to spend $20 million a year on a guy like that.
 

Morning Woodhead

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Why in gods name if you are Denver would you even consider trading him? He just blew up offensive lines through the entire play-off run and should be one of the cornerstones of that defense for the next 4-5 years, the Fans would revolt if you traded him. I'm sure they would offer two 1st round picks and Denver would laugh them off.
I'm not saying the Broncos will let him go, but if I were another team, I'd consider making an offer and putting the heat on the Broncos to match (franchise tag obviously comes into play).
 

Stitch01

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And if he ends up being a pedestrian option for a few years, that buys them time to draft/groom a real option.

There's a significant chance that Denver is about to go into a full rebuild given the QB question.
Yeah I agree. Osweiller isn't going to get as much as he would if he led the playoff run and wasn't terrible in his work as a starter. Even if the likely outcome if below average quarterback there's enough ceiling there.

Wouldn't shy away from drafting a QB high if there was someone I liked.
 

86spike

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Because he's kind of a jackass--there's the tampering with the drug test, a bunch of moving violations, and apparently other failed drug tests. He's an amazing onfield talent and a bit of an off the field risk, and maybe you don't want to spend $20 million a year on a guy like that.
still worth it.
 

Shelterdog

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still worth it.
There's a good chance he will be, but I think it's a lot easier to pay a shitload to Brady/Rice/Joe Thomas/Manning/Watt/Calvin Johnson (superstars who are apparently awesome off the field, although we don't actually know that as outsiders) compared to, say, Randy Moss--a superb talent with a problem here or there.
 

86spike

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There's a good chance he will be, but I think it's a lot easier to pay a shitload to Brady/Rice/Joe Thomas/Manning/Watt/Calvin Johnson (superstars who are apparently awesome off the field, although we don't actually know that as outsiders) compared to, say, Randy Moss--a superb talent with a problem here or there.
Von has been fine since he served his suspension for trying to game the piss tests. Demarcus Ware has supposedly been a very positive influence on him and has inspired him to continue to master his game.

How the hell do you let the best OLB in football go? You don't.
 

Stitch01

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Yeah, he seems like a bit of a jackass and for all I know he'll get suspended next year but zero chance he's going anywhere.
 

Shelterdog

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Yeah, he seems like a bit of a jackass and for all I know he'll get suspended next year but zero chance he's going anywhere.
Certainly. It may be that the best way to handle him (although it's expensive under the cap) is just to keep tagging him--the cost would be about 14, 17 and 23 million for each of the next three years so the third year hit would be tough to stomach but at least you minimize your risk if he douches out at some point.
 

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It will be interesting to see which of the two types of Franchise tags they put on him. The exclusive rights tag is about $1M more (top 3 average vs top 5), but it eliminates the possibility of Oakland, Cleveland or Jacksonville deciding they like Miller more than 2 first round picks. That extra million is probably more important to Denver than most teams, though, since they have so many other players to re-up.

Jason from OTC did an article discussing the Miller contract dilemma:

http://overthecap.com/looking-ahead-to-von-millers-upcoming-contract-negotiation/
 

Mooch

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I can't imagine that Von Miller would play under the franchise tag after carrying that team all postseason and getting his ring. Dude will want to get paid at the top of the LB class and have security in his next deal. If the Broncos try this tactic and don't give him JJ Watt type money, I could see a lengthy holdout coming.
 

86spike

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If Denver needs to tag him, it will be done 100% with the goal of getting extra time to work out a long term deal. Elway has said as much publicly. I agree with Mooch that the risk of creating acrimony and a holdout is not worth it for a player that valuable.
 

Toe Nash

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We'll see.

He's been saying all the right things about team first, etc. But he might want to move on. What would his options be? Cleveland, Philly, Houston, SF, Buffalo? None of those teams seem positioned to compete for a title the way Denver could be positioned (free agency decisions pending).
Jets could be an option. They would have interest I'd think and he would have a couple good WR, a solid running game and a good defense -- similar to the way Denver is built but not quite as good. A lot of baggage with being in the spotlight there but it's not as crazy as it was with Rex and if he does well he'd be a superhero.
 

j-man

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i think its 50/50 oz is back next year and without oz i cant see better than 8-8 for denver in 16 if i was gm of denver i would keep brock 2 y deal 15 mil per then stand pat hope RB M forte takes a 2 y 8 mil deal add a vet DE in training camp

yes denver has a easyier sch but so does the rest of the afc west and when u are the champs every team guns for u
 

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You're not getting Brock back for less than $10M per. The Rams / Texans / Browns or potentially even Jets would write that check in a heartbeat. We are living in a world where Sam Bradford and Kurt Cousins are both going to get north of $15M/per.
 

edmunddantes

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No way they allow him to get to March 9th (not sure the date) when his 19 million becomes guaranteed. So not sure how that tweet makes any sense.
 

pappymojo

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The tweet just says the team hasn't told him they will cut him. Doesn't mean they won't cut him or that they told him they won't cut him.
 

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Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis 8m8 minutes ago
Broncos offer to Osweiler: 3 years, more than $45 million http://www.9news.com/sports/broncos-offer-to-osweiler-3-years-more-than-45-million/69607526…

KUSA - The Denver Broncos’ priority is unmistakable. They want to make Brock Osweiler their starting quarterback in 2016 and beyond.

Of course, commitment to a player in the salary cap/free agent NFL economy is always measured in dollars.

The Broncos have offered Osweiler a three-year contract proposal that is worth more than $45 million, NFL sources told 9NEWS. Osweiler can become an unrestricted free agent at 2 p.m. Wednesday. The market begins with a “soft” opening Monday where free agents can talk to other teams to gage interest and their value.
good lord thats ridiculous
 

edmunddantes

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Even though the Broncos don't want to pay it, there is a reason the corpse of Manning's career will probably get decent money to play QB somewhere next year.


There is a total lack of quality QB's on the open market. So unproven guys and guys that have shown some flashes are going to get some big contracts. Fitzpatrick will also probably do well for himself this offseason. Just like Osweiller.