I'm not a Leicester supporter, but I think this team deserves its own thread, and they don't seem to have one yet. This is clearly THE story of the season so far. They are on fire right now, having taken 26 of their last 30 points. They were listed at 2000:1 to win the title before the season; that has dropped to 10:1.
So can they win the league? Probably not. But I would have thought it was nearly impossible for them to be top at Christmas, too, and yet here they are. They've been helped some by relative struggles of the other traditional big clubs, but they're on an 85-point pace, which is no slouch. And their good form really dates back to the end of last season; they finished last year 7-1-1 and so are 18-6-2 for 60 points in their last 26 matches, and they are third in the 2015 calendar year table, over 36 matches.
Interestingly, they have been successful despite deviating from the current vogue for pressing/possession. Instead they are all about pacey counters. They are 18th with only 43.6% possession and they are dead last in pass completion %. But they are 7th in shots per game and 4th in shots on target per game. They have by far the highest shot conversion rate, and I suspect that's likely to regress. I know in hockey it is well established that shooting percentages regress heavily to the mean, does anyone know of similar evidence in soccer?
They have been heavily reliant in attack on Vardy and Mahrez; those two have combined for 28 goals and 10 assists. Okazaki has three goals, no one else has more than 1. If those two slow down or get injured, they could be in real trouble.
Reasons to think they can't win the title:
1) Regression to the mean.
2) Most of their players have never been through anything resembling a real title chase before. The pressure and media spotlight will be immense and something new for them. An inexperienced team could crack.
3) They lack depth and their performances will suffer when they can't rotate to keep key players fresh.
4) They have had pretty good luck with injuries so far. That might not continue.
5) Teams will eventually figure out how to defend against their counterattacking system and they may not have a Plan B.
6) Nothing like this has even remotely come close to occurring in the big money era.
Reasons to think they can win the title:
1) They've been pretty awesome so far.
2) EVERYONE in England is going to be pulling for them. Who wouldn't want Leicester to win?
They have @Liverpool, Manchester City, and @Spurs in their next four. A tricky stretch. We'll know a little more about their title credentials after that.
Also, if you're Leicester and someone offers you 50m for Mahrez or Vardy in January, what do you do? Probably turn it down, because the money should still be there in June (assuming no injuries), but it's not an easy call.
So can they win the league? Probably not. But I would have thought it was nearly impossible for them to be top at Christmas, too, and yet here they are. They've been helped some by relative struggles of the other traditional big clubs, but they're on an 85-point pace, which is no slouch. And their good form really dates back to the end of last season; they finished last year 7-1-1 and so are 18-6-2 for 60 points in their last 26 matches, and they are third in the 2015 calendar year table, over 36 matches.
Interestingly, they have been successful despite deviating from the current vogue for pressing/possession. Instead they are all about pacey counters. They are 18th with only 43.6% possession and they are dead last in pass completion %. But they are 7th in shots per game and 4th in shots on target per game. They have by far the highest shot conversion rate, and I suspect that's likely to regress. I know in hockey it is well established that shooting percentages regress heavily to the mean, does anyone know of similar evidence in soccer?
They have been heavily reliant in attack on Vardy and Mahrez; those two have combined for 28 goals and 10 assists. Okazaki has three goals, no one else has more than 1. If those two slow down or get injured, they could be in real trouble.
Reasons to think they can't win the title:
1) Regression to the mean.
2) Most of their players have never been through anything resembling a real title chase before. The pressure and media spotlight will be immense and something new for them. An inexperienced team could crack.
3) They lack depth and their performances will suffer when they can't rotate to keep key players fresh.
4) They have had pretty good luck with injuries so far. That might not continue.
5) Teams will eventually figure out how to defend against their counterattacking system and they may not have a Plan B.
6) Nothing like this has even remotely come close to occurring in the big money era.
Reasons to think they can win the title:
1) They've been pretty awesome so far.
2) EVERYONE in England is going to be pulling for them. Who wouldn't want Leicester to win?
They have @Liverpool, Manchester City, and @Spurs in their next four. A tricky stretch. We'll know a little more about their title credentials after that.
Also, if you're Leicester and someone offers you 50m for Mahrez or Vardy in January, what do you do? Probably turn it down, because the money should still be there in June (assuming no injuries), but it's not an easy call.
