Are the 2015-2016 Celtics better or worse than the 2014-2015 Celtics?

Tonight's Red Claws update:

Mickey: 7-15, 17 points, 9 boards, 2 assists, 2 steals, 5 blocks, and (according to Twitter) one monster put-back dunk
Rozier: 5-10, 16 points, 3 boards, 8 assists
Young: 9-18, 26 points, 15 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals

FWIW (nothing, I know), the Celtics are in first place in their division right now.


and 7th best in the conference.

Rozier and Young summoned to Boston. Mickey left behind at the Red Claws.

Here's a look at who shows up on the BRef advanced stats leader board (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_leaders.html?lid=header_leaders):

Offensive Rebound Pct. Sully 8th
Defensive Rebound Pct. Sully 16th
Total Rebound Pct. Sully 9th
Assist Pct. IT 9th
Steal Pct. JCrowder 1st,
Marcus 13th
Usage IT 13th
Defensive Rating Sully 4th
(KO would be 5th if he had enough minutes to qualify)
JCrowder 7th
AmirJ 12th
DWinShares JCrowder 11th
WinShares/48 Sully 16th
BPM Sully 7th
JCrowder 19th
OBPM IT 9th
DBPM Sully 6th
AmirJ 7th
JCrowder 8th




Nice to see such depth, with 5 different guys showing up on the leader board. Only IT on the offensive side, which is not surprising given our stellar team defensive ranking and average team offensive ranking.

Koufax said:

Rozier and Young summoned to Boston. Mickey left behind at the Red Claws.

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I caught the game today (was a bummer to only get Mickey and not Rozier/Young). Mickey went 10-20, 25 points, 13 boards, 4 blocks. Sloppy game overall (as expected). Mickey is a notch above whatever else Maine has.

Smart out for a couple of weeks. Can we call him injury prone yet?

I'm kinda getting there to be honest, given these haven't felt like freak injuries, but related to his style of play. Too early to have actual confidence, but it's a bad feeling, especially given how important he is to this team.

moondog80 said:

Smart out for a couple of weeks. Can we call him injury prone yet?

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They need to convince him that there's no official Tommypoint stat. When you're that big and hurl yourself around like that injuries are going to happen. And he's way too important to the team.

Klay Thompson: 31.3 mpg, 16.3 ppg .454/.413/.833, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg. Turns 26 in February. Owed $69 million over next 4 years.

Avery Bradley: 30.2 mpg, 16.1 ppg, .469/.418/.741, 2.5 rpg, 2.1 apg. Turned 25 last week. Owed $24.8 million over next 3 years.

Bradley was one of the rawest, inept offensive players I have ever seen his rookie year. I don't know if he can maintain a 3 point field goal percentage north of 40% (on a relatively high volume - 5.7 attempts per game) but that this is a question even worthy of discussion is a testament to how much work this kid obviously has put in. When the Celtics resigned him before last season, I felt kind of -eh- about Bradley, but he is a steal at this money, especially considering what he brings to the table defensively.

That is a weird comparison, precisely because of Bradley's limitations defensively. Bradley can't defend 2s especially effectively, which really limits his utility as a player when Smart isn't on the court to cover up for him. I'd much rather have Thompson at his deal than Bradley at his.

Avery is beginning to live up to his potential as one of the best (someone had him #1) if not the best High School player of his class. Definitely one of Danny's best picks on draft night......sometimes these things take time.

Bradley is shooting out of his mind right now. What the stats don't show is how close all of his misses are to going in. There are so many in and outs. I'm hoping this is a sustained leap.

HomeRunBaker said:

Avery is beginning to live up to his potential as one of the best (someone had him #1) if not the best High School player of his class. Definitely one of Danny's best picks on draft night......sometimes these things take time.

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Very impressive considering the overall weakness of that draft. At 19 he picked the last good player on the board (non-character issue division). In addition to being a young and pretty raw draftee, Avery also had to deal with injury and usage issues. I know Stevens is sort of going for a positionless system but a clearly defined role can do wonders for a player, especially when that player is AB and that role no longer involves playing point guard.

Roster Crunch

Is Evan Turner a part of this rotation when Smart is healthy again? He has the ball in his hands a lot and during big possessions, be it good or bad. Bradley is thriving, and I hope his minutes aren't cut to keep Turner on the floor even if it is just to showcase him for a trade.

But is he a part of the team in the future, if not why is he getting 30 minutes a game? Are Danny and Brad showcasing him for a trade? I'm worried that the complaining of Jae and Thomas could get louder if Danny and Brad don't get them on board with the goals of this season. With all due respect to trying to compete this year, what the hell are we going to do with this jammed up talented roster?

I don't want to start a new thread without asking, but maybe a roster crunch thread if any mod thinks necessary? This thread I'm posting in is about the 16 team vs the 15 team so it really isn't appropriate. The roster log jam isn't being addressed specifically in a thread of its own, and I can feel Danny's anxiety with it coming at him like a freight train.

Something has gotta give, we can't add three more draft picks to this roster next year and expect to have a halfway decent team. Danny needs to address the roster jam of players and picks soon or we will be selling a lot of draft picks for cash or drafting and stashing players over seas during the next few drafts. My main concern is wondering what players are part of the long term plans. Below in my whiteboard is each player and their contract status, my opinion of importance to master plan is the number, and the future draft picks.

Who is in the long term plans for this team? What do we do with players like Amir & JJ and their team friendly options who won't be on this team in three years? So many questions...


Celtics White Board

1-Smart (RFA (summer 2018))
2-Bradley (UFA 2018)
3-Crowder (UFA 2020)
4-Thomas (UFA 2018)
5-Sullinger (RFA 2016)
6-Hunter (RFA 2019)
7-Mickey (UFA 2019 team option 17/18 & 18/19)
8-Olynyk (RFA 2017)
9-Rozier (RFA 2019)
10-Amir (team option for 16/17)
11-Jerebko (team option for 16/17)
12-Turner (UFA 2016)
13-Young (RFA 2018)
14-Zeller (RFA 2016)
15-Lee (UFA 2016)


2016 1st round Nets pick
2016 1st round Celtic Pick
2016 1st round Mavs pick (1-7 protected)
2016 2nd round Philladelphia
2016 Minn 2nd round pick(considered 2nd round here) 1-12 first round protected
2016 2nd round Memphis/Dallas(better)
2016 2nd round Miami pick
2016 2nd round Cleveland pick

2017 Nets/Celtics swap pick
2017 Memphis 1st round (1-11 protected, not probably of being fulfilled due to other stipulations)
••(5. [Memphis pick is delivered two years after Grizzlies fulfill obligation to Denver. Pick is protected 1-11 in 2017; 1-13 in 2018; 1-9 in 2019; 1-7 in 2020, unprotected in 2021]‘)
••(2016 first round draft pick from Memphis
Memphis' 1st round pick to Denver (via Cleveland) protected for selections 1-5 and 15-30 in 2016, 1-5 in 2017 and 1-5 in 2018 and unprotected in 2019 [Cleveland-Memphis, 1/22/2013; Cleveland-Denver, 1/7/2015])
••Grizzlies protected pick was acquired in Jeff Green trade and will be sent to Boston two years after Memphis sends a protected first-round pick to Denver Nuggets (expected in 2017). Based on protections of that selection that vary each year, Boston is most likely to receive the pick in 2019, when it is top-eight protected. If not received in 2019, the pick rolls over to future seasons. It is top-six protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.)

2017 Minnesota 2nd rounder(if 2016 2nd r)
2017 clippers 2nd rounder
2017 Cleveland 2nd rounder

2018 Nets 1st round pick
2018 Celtics 1st round pick
2018 Celtics 2nd round pick

2019 Celtics 1st
2019 (Probably Memphis)
2019 Celtics 2nd
2019 Pistons 2nd

2020 Celtics 1st
2020 Celtics 2nd
2020 Heat 2nd

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston_celtics/
http://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/
Picks link- http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4716912/bostons-pile-of-draft-picks

Hopefully Turner's playing time decreases (and moves to the 3) with Smart back, and he slowly loses time at both G and F to the rookies as they pick up the defensive system.
His real benefit right now is that he's been playing good defense 1-3 and being able to switch all over the place is a key to the good defense they play. Turner, Jerebko, and Olynyk have been key to that. Problem is that all are struggling offensively, and the PF glut is moving Jerebko to the 3 where he's much less effective than the 4.

Roster crunch should definitely be its own thread. That along with the Nets situation are the two "important" storylines for the next 12 months for the Celtics.

...look about the same to me. Those 50+ win projections were crazy talk.

Two pretty ugly home losses to bad teams, I agree. Still optimistic, but the generally improved quality of the lower end of the East makes every game a grind.

They are unquestionably better than last year. Maybe not better than they way they ended last year though.

Is it me or has Jared Sullinger regressed badly? He's frustrating.

Eddie Jurak said:

They are unquestionably better than last year. Maybe not better than they way they ended last year though.

Is it me or has Jared Sullinger regressed badly? He's frustrating.

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I mean - of course they're better than the early season craptastic pre-IT Rondo version but they've basically been the same team for the past year or so. Smart hasn't progressed primarily due to injury and they're not getting much from the rookies, which we expected. Amir Johnson has replaced Zeller and has been a little better but is far from the impact big we need. I agree on Sullinger. I'm absolutely ready to move on from him. Unfortunately, there aren't any better options since Lee sucks.

At the end of the day, this team will scratch and claw but they are limited by their mediocre talent.

Haven't watched every single game this season but what I have seen, I've been impressed with. It's probably because they are winning at a decent clip but I really enjoy watching them play.

It appears David Lee is going to be the odd man out of the big man rotation, and it's about time. It was a valiant effort to try to extract some value from him, but he's always been a terrible defender, and this year was a poor offensive player as well. No matter what situation they put him in - starter, bench, post up, pick and roll - he couldn't get going. Zeller may well be a better fit for the team at this point. I also like the Olynyk-Johnson-IT trio in the starting lineup together, with Sullinger coming off the bench. It provides more floor spacing and more interesting pick-and-roll combinations, and lets Sully go to work in the post against mostly bench guys.

On the other hand, Evan Turner is still featured prominently. I wish Young or Hunter were good enough that they deserved all of his minutes, but it looks like that hasn't happened yet. They're still on pace for 46 wins, in what has felt like a slow start to the season. 50 wins isn't that much of a pipe dream.

They desperately need Turner's playmaking skill. Which may be all you need to know about the 2016 Celtics.

nighthob said:

They desperately need Turner's playmaking skill. Which may be all you need to know about the 2016 Celtics.

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I really don't see it. They're 3.3 points worse so far this year with Turner on the court. That's just raw plus/minus, but it's reflected in RPM as well. For all his "playmaking", they're better when he's on the bench...

They have two people right now that can effectively get the ball past the half court line. And they can't play the other one 48 minutes a night.

They are 47-35 over their last 82 and are on a 46 win pace. Shitty losses are frustrating but not sure 50 win talk is that overblown.

10-6 on the road, tied with the Spurs for second best in the league. 9-9 at home, which is exceptionally mediocre. Will the real Celtics please stand up?

Evan Turner is to NBA Offenses what John Wayne Gacy was to teenage boys.

I dont know how to link this but:

Boston Celtics rookie second-round pick Jordan Mickey was named the D-League Player of the Month for December on Tuesday after averaging 19.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.3 blocks per game in eight appearances. For the 2015-16 season, Mickey has played 17 games in Maine while averaging 18.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 4.7 blocks over 35.2 minutes per game. He has 11 double-doubles this season, ranking third in the league. ??:
http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/bos/boston-celtics

bosox79 said:

I dont know how to link this but:

Boston Celtics rookie second-round pick Jordan Mickey was named the D-League Player of the Month for December on Tuesday after averaging 19.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.3 blocks per game in eight appearances. For the 2015-16 season, Mickey has played 17 games in Maine while averaging 18.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 4.7 blocks over 35.2 minutes per game. He has 11 double-doubles this season, ranking third in the league.??:

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It can't be stated enough how awful the basketball is in this league. You have rosters full of non-NBA prospects many without even an inclination of wanting to defend and the others without the ability to do so.

Our own Vander Blue is putting up a 21/6/4/2 stat line down there. Ricky Ledo a 20/7/4/2. It's a league for non-NBA players who don't want to make money overseas with the dream of catching a 10-day contract(s) and playing time from an injury riddled, lottery bound NBA team post-All Star break for an audition and half a season of salary. It's an alternative to Overseas and a place for rookies to get some run like Mickey is.

The NBA really needs to join the 20th century and create a real minor league.

What would that entail that's different than the D-league?

nighthob said:

The NBA really needs to join the 20th century and create a real minor league.

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Not sure if this was a joke, but minor leagues definitely are a 20th century concept in my mind. The future developmental league for the NBA is going to be the leagues around the world in Europe and Asia etc. . I think basketball will move more towards soccer in this respect: Prospects build themselves up in Europe and then the top players get poached by the NBA. Its already happening.

smastroyin said:

They are 47-35 over their last 82 and are on a 46 win pace. Shitty losses are frustrating but not sure 50 win talk is that overblown.

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Celtics would need to finish 31-16 to reach 50 wins. There are current 4 teams with a .660 winning percentage or better:

Warriors
Spurs
Thunder
Cavs

I'd say no chance this team reaches 50 wins without some kind of drastic trade.

BigSoxFan said:

Celtics would need to finish 31-16 to reach 50 wins. There are current 4 teams with a .660 winning percentage or better:

Warriors
Spurs
Thunder
Cavs

I'd say no chance this team reaches 50 wins without some kind of drastic trade.

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At this point, I think that's right, though I wouldn't rule out some kind of trade. It will be harder for Danny this year than last when his rostr was loaded with tradeable guys who weren't helping (Rondo, Green, etc).

More than anything, I wish he could get a mulligan on the Lee deal.

Barring a trade what is the ceiling this year? Losing 4-1 in the first round? I guess that would be progress. Barely

BigSoxFan said:

Celtics would need to finish 31-16 to reach 50 wins. There are current 4 teams with a .660 winning percentage or better:

I'd say no chance this team reaches 50 wins without some kind of drastic trade.

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Yes, their shitty showing in the last two weeks makes it less likely they will get to 50 this year, but that doesn't mean their chances of doing so were overblown

Eddie Jurak said:

More than anything, I wish he could get a mulligan on the Lee deal.

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Hard to see how this would have changed the outcome of anything. Lee seems at very least a more tradeable asset than Wallace was.

tims4wins said:

Barring a trade what is the ceiling this year? Losing 4-1 in the first round? I guess that would be progress. Barely

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If they get the 8 seed, sure, but you don't think they're at least competitive with basically everyone but Cleveland in a playoff series?

I felt as if David Lee was missing a ton of layups and short shots this year, so I took a quick look at the numbers.

This year he is taking 56% of his field goal attempts from 0 to 3 feet, which exceeds his career number of 49%. Not only is his game more reliant on the short game, but he has been pretty poor from that range, only making 55% of his shots (for his career he makes about 66% from that short range, including the three prior years at Golden State with 68.6%, 67%, and 68.9%). For comparison, here are a few other Celtics bigs' FG% from 0 to 3 feet: Amir: 68.9%, Olynyk: 68.2%, Zeller: 65.8%, and Sully: 57.3%.

He sure looks old out there, so it is not surprising he is not playing anywhere near his usual numbers, but if he had been shooting his typical career percentage from 0-3 feet this year (career 66.2%), that means he probably would have hit about 11 more baskets.

With 11 more baskets, all of a sudden his numbers look a lot nicer. True shooting percentage goes from his current .519 to .573, almost exactly matching his career number of .574.

Sure, it does not matter because 32 year old David Lee is who he is, but I still can't help thinking how just a few more layups and he'd probably have a little more trade value than he currently does.

All layups are not created equal. I'm guessing that Curry/Green/Thompson get you wide open layups more often than Thomas/Lee/Smart. Also, does anyone really think KO is a better finisher around the rim than Sullinger?

Tuff Ghost said:

I felt as if David Lee was missing a ton of layups and short shots this year, so I took a quick look at the numbers.

This year he is taking 56% of his field goal attempts from 0 to 3 feet, which exceeds his career number of 49%. Not only is his game more reliant on the short game, but he has been pretty poor from that range, only making 55% of his shots (for his career he makes about 66% from that short range, including the three prior years at Golden State with 68.6%, 67%, and 68.9%). For comparison, here are a few other Celtics bigs' FG% from 0 to 3 feet: Amir: 68.9%, Olynyk: 68.2%, Zeller: 65.8%, and Sully: 57.3%.

He sure looks old out there, so it is not surprising he is not playing anywhere near his usual numbers, but if he had been shooting his typical career percentage from 0-3 feet this year (career 66.2%), that means he probably would have hit about 11 more baskets.

With 11 more baskets, all of a sudden his numbers look a lot nicer. True shooting percentage goes from his current .519 to .573, almost exactly matching his career number of .574.

Sure, it does not matter because 32 year old David Lee is who he is, but I still can't help thinking how just a few more layups and he'd probably have a little more trade value than he currently does.

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The comment above about all layups not being created equal is spot on. Lee has regressed dramatically as a player primarily due to the demise of his athletic ability in each of the prior two seasons entering this year. His performance as a Celtic should surprise nobody and iirc quite a few others were beating this drum with me in the summer.

We swapped contracts and it put Ainge in a position to acquire a mega piece (theoretically he still does) as Lee's deal was much larger allowing more flexibility in going after a key piece. Lee's value was always tied to his contract and not his play on the floor. It's still mind boggling that Stevens began the year with him starting against elite bigs......Lee was probably the least prepared player in our frontcourt to matchup with them.

TheRooster said:

All layups are not created equal. I'm guessing that Curry/Green/Thompson get you wide open layups more often than Thomas/Lee/Smart. Also, does anyone really think KO is a better finisher around the rim than Sullinger?

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I do. 100%. Olynyk has better touch, jumps higher and gets fouled more. Sully has a lot of 3 attempt possessions.

Obviously all lay-ups are not created equal, and the Warriors offense is at a different level from the Celtics, but just looking at last year, David Lee was not really running with Curry/Thompson/Green. He was spending more time with Iguodola, Livingston, and Barbosa.

He played 904 minutes. He played 345 with Curry (38% of his minutes), 317 with Thompson (35%), and 188 with Green (21%).

Curry, Thompson, and Lee played 191 minutes simultaneously (21%).

Not that I am arguing against what you are saying. He got minutes with those guys and the Warriors team from top to bottom is better than the Celtics team, so everyone would agree that the quality of his shots were higher last year.

He's never shot below 60% on 0-3 footers in his entire NBA career and this year he's at 55%. Watching him, he looks like toast, but I would not be surprised if there was a slight luck factor in play suppressing his FG% a little bit. I am not saying he is going to get it to go back to Warriors levels, but if I had to bet if his final 0-3 ft FG% would be above or below 55% (without factoring in a trade), I'd take the over.

The least of Lee's problems are his offense. He's passable at that end of the floor but when you have a hard time finding a worse defensive front court big you need much more than passable to offset the layup line at the other end.

Cellar-Door said:

I do. 100%. Olynyk has better touch, jumps higher and gets fouled more. Sully has a lot of 3 attempt possessions.

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Agree. Sullinger's lack of lift means that he gets swallowed up a lot inside (unless it's an open dunk). Plus, KO has some nifty moves with both hands around the rim, as he demonstrated last night at least twice last night (IIRC).

Three point shooting is really hurting the C's. They are shooting .320 on the year, which is fourth worst in the league and well below the current year's league average of .350. If you take all of the teams that shoot three's worse than league average, they combine for a winning percentage of .418, which is not surprising. The best team to shoot three's below average is probably the Hawks.

Top 5 Teams by 3 Pt %
Golden State: .425
San Antonio: .382
Phoenix: .376
Washington: .368
Chicago: .368

League Average: .350

Bottom 5 Teams by 3 Pt %
Philadelphia: .321
Boston: .320
Memphis: .319
Brooklyn: .318
LAL: .312

The Celtics currently only have four players shooting above league average on three's:
Jerebko: .417 (15-36)
Olynyk: .398 (45-113)
Bradley: .362 (68-188)
Crowder: .358 (68-190)

There are ugly numbers from the rest of team; obviously Turner (.155) and Smart (.206) are terrible, but at least their volume is not too high.

I think Isaiah is having a great year, but even he is below average on three's and he takes a ton, probably partly because he is asked to do too much for the offense:
Thomas: .329 (77-234)

If you compare Thomas's 3-point shooting on the Celtics vs. his career, he has been worst while on the Celtics, which probably speaks to the team offense, what he is asked to do, and his usage percentage:
Sacramento years (chronological order): .379, .358, .349
Phoenix: .391
Boston: .345, .329

I am not sure what to say. To be an elite team in the NBA you need to be able to make threes. You can probably be okay or even pretty good without the 3 point shooting, but shooting like this does not give much hope.

I think you're dead on with the shooting being the biggest current problem. Even Bradley had a great month in November but has been terrible since. You could hope that guys like Bradley and Smart improve, and that Thomas trends back to his historical averages, but I think a scoring wing who's efficient from 3 is their biggest need.

I suppose the optimistic take on Thomas' numbers is that if/when the C's do add a legit scorer to the mix, Thomas should get a nice boost in efficiency from not having to do it all himself.