Marks the rare (only?) occasion where Fangraphs crowdsourcing overestimated the value of a large dollar contract.
Dombrowski: SP likely from FA. Which should we sign?
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
Jon MorosiVerified account @jonmorosi 1h1 hour ago
Johnny Cueto rejected a six-year, $120 million offer from #DBacks, source confirms @SteveGilbertMLB report. @FOXSports
Johnny Cueto rejected a six-year, $120 million offer from #DBacks, source confirms @SteveGilbertMLB report. @FOXSports
The article states the deal is 5/210 when it is 5/110 unless I am hallucinating from all the turkey this weekend.
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick 2m2 minutes ago
Clubs in the Johnny Cueto market believe he's looking for a $140-160M payout. That's Cole Hamels-Jon Lester territory.
Clubs in the Johnny Cueto market believe he's looking for a $140-160M payout. That's Cole Hamels-Jon Lester territory.
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago
Price ex-teammates think a city he likes, the NL, being able to hit will be among factors more important than the last $$$$.
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago
@pgammo But never underestimate Dave Dombrowski
Price ex-teammates think a city he likes, the NL, being able to hit will be among factors more important than the last $$$$.
Peter Gammons @pgammo 6h6 hours ago
@pgammo But never underestimate Dave Dombrowski
Wait, Price, with all of 39 career PA and an OPS of .157, suddenly wants to hit?
Why do I suspect that Gammo mistyped Price for Greinke?
Why do I suspect that Gammo mistyped Price for Greinke?
Julie DiCaro @JulieDiCaro 9m9 minutes ago
#Cubs said to be 'balking' at the price for David Price. Told back up plans are 'plentiful and more than adequate.'
#Cubs said to be 'balking' at the price for David Price. Told back up plans are 'plentiful and more than adequate.'
Yeah that's the first reference I've heard to Price wanting to hit. Odd.
So if Cueto ends up with $140m, and after Zimmermann got $110m, do people really still think that Price is going to get $210m-$240m? I still find it hard to believe that it'll take $30m per year for at least 7 years to get him.
So if Cueto ends up with $140m, and after Zimmermann got $110m, do people really still think that Price is going to get $210m-$240m? I still find it hard to believe that it'll take $30m per year for at least 7 years to get him.
Given the inflation in the free-agent market and the fact that Zimmermann signed for only five years instead of the six both Cain and Hamels received, one would have expected a larger average annual value — perhaps closer to $25 million per season.Price has generally been about 40 percent more valuable than Zimmermann in terms of wins above replacement over the last five years, and he's also entering his age-30 season. Doing the basic math, that would put the left-hander in a place to earn around $31 million per season. Don’t expect the preeminent free-agent starter — and one without the health risks or recent decline shown by Zimmermann — to settle for five years, either. Price still remains likely to get seven years, putting his estimated contract value around $220 million overall.
http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20151129/SPORTS/151129329/14009/?Start=1
That maneuver would be screaming for MLBPA to file a grievance, and for free agents to avoid Boston like the plague. It's one thing when you send down a guy with limited service time like Allen Craig, who proved over the course of two seasons he could no longer hit at a big league level. Hanley's only "sin" to this point in his Red Sox tenure is being injured (and being a poor defensive LF). When he's healthy, he can still rake.
I'm certain you can't use the Craig loophole with Hanley. That was a very special case involving Craig's limited MLB service time + options available.
If they DFA him they will be on the hook for the whole salary - both in real terms and for the LT.
So .. no .. bad idea.
I assumed this would be the case, and that the contract will probably be for 5 years. So 5/150-ish for Greinke vs. 7/210+ for Price. Pick your poison, but it's the cost of doing business at the high end of the free agent SP market.
Blarg. Pick your poison or maybe we can't get either of these guys to leave the National League. I definitely prefer 5/150 for Greinke than 6/150 for Cueto, who seems easily the most likely to be a total bust.
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that, in addition to the Diamondbacks, Johnny Cueto has received interest from the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox and Cubs, among others.
It was reported earlier Monday that Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the D'Backs. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick hears that the right-hander is looking for a contract in the $140-160 million range, and while it remains to be seen whether he'll get there, Heyman says "the market still favors Cueto." Since Cueto was traded during the 2015 season, the team that signs him this winter will not have to forfeit a draft pick.
Via Roto
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25395640/d-backs-pursue-cueto-and-also-clear-air-about-a-long-ago-snub
It was reported earlier Monday that Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the D'Backs. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick hears that the right-hander is looking for a contract in the $140-160 million range, and while it remains to be seen whether he'll get there, Heyman says "the market still favors Cueto." Since Cueto was traded during the 2015 season, the team that signs him this winter will not have to forfeit a draft pick.
Via Roto
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25395640/d-backs-pursue-cueto-and-also-clear-air-about-a-long-ago-snub
Apparently the AL East is a 12-team mixed fanball league where you can't possibly win unless you have a Lake Wobegon roster where everybody is above average. I think some posters need to take a look at the other rotations in the division, as currently constituted. The only one that's clearly better than ours is the Yankees', and the Yankee lineup looks pretty weak, with the only guy projected by Steamer at >3 WAR being McCann.
We really don't need to do nearly as much to make ourselves the best on-paper roster in the division as some seem to think.
I think of Miley as more of a quality #4, but certainly between him and Rodriguez there's a pretty good chance one of them submits what any reasonable person would call a "solid #3 LHP" season.
I would feel pretty much completely the opposite to this.
Grienke is 32. Cueto will turn 30 in February. Grienke has pitched about 600 more professional innings than Cueto. Their rate stats, FIP and xFIP are all pretty similar. Cueto played most of his career for the Reds with a known hitters park as his home field. Greinke has predominantly been in pitchers parts or neutral parks. Greinke doesn't have the blip at the end of 2015 that Cueto did for five starts after joining KC, but Cueto largely pulled out of that for the playoffs.
All things being equal I'd probably pick Greinke over Cueto, but if we're talking about 5/$150 for one versus 6/$150 for the other I think I'd take the free extra year, especially since that's Cueto age 30-35 seasons whereas 5 years for Greinke gets you ages 32-36.
I also think Cueto is going to land between the Diamondbacks offer and his claimed asking price. Zimmerman got 5/$110M, the 6 year equivalent to that is 6/$132M. That's my guess on what Cueto gets.
Jim Bowden says he hears Boston won't let Price get away and projects deal of 7/213.5
Now who's bigger than the game!
Seriously. Cueto actually wants to pitch for the Boston Red Sox. Sign him and use the extra ~$75MM saved to, you know, improve the team in other ways as needed over time. Greinke admitted he will pitch anywhere. High-bid and use the extra ~$50MM saved to, you know, improve the team in other ways as needed over time.
I hate when the Sox fixate on one "most bestest" option. Like with Teixeira, this situation just doesn't feel like it will end well.
But this time, at least, there are other options almost as good, just as freely available for considerably less money, and within a reasonable probability factor to be almost as good, just as good, or perhaps even better. Now that those options are down to three, even though the Sox might be able to get Price, they certainly shouldn't let themselves be without a chair when the music stops.
I'm glad I'm not the only one getting Teixeira flashbacks. I also voted for Greinke.
A Greinke and Cueto double dip would be pretty risky (all of these contracts will be risky) but tantalizing ceiling.
Rotation of 1) Greinke 2) Cueto 3) Ed Rod 4) Porcello 5) Buch/Kelly/Johnson/Owens ( injuries/depth etc) Miley traded.
Remember that old Theo line about how health is the new frontier of Sabermetrics? I wonder if we're targeting Price because his control and the simplicity of his mechanics suggests better than average odds of staying healthy. Here's one report raving about his mechanics:
This is why I'd prefer to spend significantly more for Price than, say, Cueto.
Can somebody give a quick & dirty explanation (or point me to one) of what's alarming in that video? I know it's common wisdom that Cueto's mechanics are $#@%ed, so I'm sure it's true, but for those of us for whom the mechanical side of pitching is a black art, a walk-through would be helpful.
I may be way off here but I don't know if it's an injury risk so much as there are more moving parts/require more flexibility than Price's very simple motion. So as you get older and lose more dexterity/flexibility repeating his mechanics will be harder.
I also think that the back turn puts more pressure on your shoulder.
From one know-nothing to another slightly more learned, he looks like Luis Tiant. I wonder if the corkscrew rotation combined with the moving parts tbb345 mentions puts more strain on the arm.
(Ignore prior non-post. I hit enter prematurely.)
(Ignore prior non-post. I hit enter prematurely.)
I definitely don't know enough to know anything but my experience as a fan over the past 20+ years is that the more boring the delivery, the better when it comes to consistency and health.
I believe you're right that a simple delivery improves consistency, because it facilitates the repeatability of mechanics and muscle memory of the release point. But my guess is that's the reason why fewer "quirky" delivery guys make the majors, though, rather than a commentary about the longevity of the few like Cueto or Tiant who go on to achieve elite status that way.
I'm not sure it's relevant to injury, though. Mark Prior is exhibit A, but there are a metric ton of pitchers who start out lauded for their mechanics and then suffer hurt from the constant repetition of a very violent motion, regardless.
Sure, Wakefield had a super boring delivery, but I wouldn't say that's why he pitched through 19 MLB seasons.
Agree with some of the others on the Teixeira'like feeling. I'm also not buying in to the reality value behind that # being thrown out. Taking the Scherzer contract and then simply adding an extra $3.5m kicker in Boston's favor isn't how this is going to play out. If we end up with Price it's probably going to be a lot more painful then that.
Meh, maybe it's just the Debbie Downer in me but i'm not really liking the look of things now that Zimmerman is off the table. LA isn't going to let Greinke get away, and going an extra mile of top dollar money to trump a super competitive field on Cueto seems too risky and full of immediate bust potential. The outside possibility we could shift gears (through trade on a starter) and end up signing Heyward/Gordon to a worse contract (in a less desired sense) then any of the above has me even more nervous.
Probably not the most popular stance to take, but if it comes down to a walking away empty because all the available options totally suck scenario..I really hope DD has it in him to do that. Can't see myself supporting the "it's not my money" stance on Price if he ends up going all Robinson Cano on a contract that extends beyond 7 years.
Bowden on WEEI: "Price is the guy DD wants. Fallback option is Cueto as Greinke is staying out west. He pays star players everywhere he's been and everywhere he's been he's had a #1 starter. Has a good relationship with Price's agent but it's going to cost more than Scherzer. I think they'll pull it off but they'll have stiff competition. I think he'll get in range of 7/213 but may be higher. Being LHP and age, it's a worthwhile gamble. He consistently goes 200 IP, wins in AL East, and is left handed. Competition is LAD if Greinke leaves, Giants want ZG or Price, and what I understand that the Cubs are in on Price but want to keep it low-key. The wild card is St. Louis with the question marks in their rotation. If I know one thing about DD, he closes deals. He has the backing of JWH and good relationships with Price and his agent. This won't be something they do again but they view Price as their ticket to get back to the playoffs. Not a lot of opportunities to get aces in trade or draft. If they want to win now, I don't know any other way.
7/213 is absurd. That isn't Scherzer money when you factor in present value. It blows Scherzer away. That's Kershaw money. And while Kershaw wasn't a FA, he was 26 and he's a better pitcher. Scherzer's deal equated to about 7/170. How does Price get 7/213 after the Scherzer and Lester deals last year?
Unless, of course, there are a lot of deferrals here as well, but the AAV for luxury tax purposes wouldn't change.
Unless, of course, there are a lot of deferrals here as well, but the AAV for luxury tax purposes wouldn't change.
Ok, I've decided I want Price, because after Buch gets hurt again and we decline his 2017 option (or trade him for peanuts to Oakland), and after Kelly gets moved permanently to the pen, we'll have Price, Edro, Miley, Owens and Johnson in the rotation. Have the Sox ever had a rotation of 5 LHers?? That'd be fun. Especially at Fenway.
It's hilarious how many people think Buchholz's option should have been turned down/ will be turned down.
I still love Joe Kelly. Would rather keep them than the other young veterans on the pitching staff.
I love Kelly, because I think he could be a monster All-Star quality reliever. He should not start for a pennant contender, IMO.
In a market where Price will probably get 30 million and Rick Porcello gets 20 would someone like to explain why declining Buchholz option at 13 makes sense? When he's healthy he's a legit #2. He would make more than that on the market despite the injury issues. Owens and Johnson will have their turn as no teams really get through a season untouched by injuries but why force it?
This notion that it's Price or bust has really become too much. And denotes a lack of imagination that scares me a little bit with this team right now. What if you don't get him, then what? And what's the limit? $250m? $300m? Is there a limit? Did Price guarantee winning for Detroit, Toronto, Tampa?
The thing is, there are ways to win without Price. If you add Chen (very good in the AL East) + Iwakuma (for example) for a total of say $120m on relatively short term deals + see who's available at the trade deadline, you have a good shot at getting to the playoffs, and once you get there, whatever happens happens. When one of the best arguments is a variant of "it's not my money/they have the money", you know this ace obsession is going to lead to a stupid decision.
*Not saying you're saying it, RedOctober, I know it's Bowden's reading of the situation.
