The sixers and building a winner

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DukeSox

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This is good for Philly, the last thing you'd want is Jah just laughing it off saying "yeah, we do haha", like most NBA players would.

He's 19 and hasn't won a game since winning the natty last year.
 

Devizier

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It's so hard to parse these things, but the divergent approaches of the Timberwolves and Sixers' offseason strategies seems to be showing up the results awfully early.
 

bowiac

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While I basically agree that Hinkie hasn't done the best job in execution, and maybe not even in approach, that seems harsh. What we're seeing there is divergent lottery results, where Minnesota got Towns and Wiggins mostly through better lottery luck (via Cleveland in Wiggins' case).
 

HomeRunBaker

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While I basically agree that Hinkie hasn't done the best job in execution, and maybe not even in approach, that seems harsh. What we're seeing there is divergent lottery results, where Minnesota got Towns and Wiggins mostly through better lottery luck (via Cleveland in Wiggins' case).
I don't buy the Sixers being "unlucky" in the lottery. One of the reasons being that the team with the worst record still only has a 25% chance of winning the lottery and the #1 selection. This is one more reason why their strategy is so flawed.
 

Cellar-Door

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While I basically agree that Hinkie hasn't done the best job in execution, and maybe not even in approach, that seems harsh. What we're seeing there is divergent lottery results, where Minnesota got Towns and Wiggins mostly through better lottery luck (via Cleveland in Wiggins' case).
Minny also had good players on the roster, so not sure how well you can compare, though they did make their trades for a mix of players and picks, rather than just going the draft pick lottery route that PHI did when trading their players.
However, I don't know that it is really "luck" that they got Wiggins, they traded for him after he was picked rather than trading for a pick and getting lucky in the lottery.
 

Remagellan

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With all due respect to Golden State, the team that won the championship the year before had a pretty good big man so I don't know if it is safe to say a big man is obsolete in today's game.

And although I wanted them to take Mudiay in the draft and I am now intrigued by what a Noel-Porzingas combo would look like running up and down the court, I don't think having Noel and a gimpy Embiid on a roster is reason enough to pass on Okafor, who is far and away the best player on the team (and a fighter to boot).

The Sixers bad lottery luck begins with Cleveland winning the lottery two years ago and ends with Embiid getting hurt prior to the draft. If it weren't for either of those things, the Sixers would have Wiggins, because the Cavs would have taken Embiid if he didn't get injured before the draft. If we had Noel, Okafor, and Wiggins right now there would be far more trust in the process.
 

Cellar-Door

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I wouldn't say anyone is arguing big men are obsolete, only that you have to be able to space the floor, and occasionally go small. SA is terrific at both those things, in part because their big man is maybe the greatest PF ever to play, and he developed an effective 10ft and out game, plays small ball C and is a terrific passer.

With the sixers the problem so far is that they invested 3 top 3 draft picks in big men who can't space the floor, and all 3 are really 5s, and are less effective at the 4.

That means in a best case scenario (Embiid comes back and is good), they still need to trade at least 1.

I understand the thought process of BPA, but I don't think they were clear enough BPA to draft guys Hinkie should know can't effectively play together. I don't see any combination of those 3 that works. None of them space the floor, and none of them defend the 4 that well (Noel isn't that bad, but he's very good at the 5, so it's a waste to make him an average at best defensive 4, especially since his offense is poor.)

Let me give a counter drafting strategy based on who was projected as possible picks in Sixers spots.
2014- Exum/Smart/ Keep Payton
2015- Porzingis

That would be to me a much better base for a team. You have young real talent at guard and in the frontcourt, a much better defensive team, but not going to win so many games as to hurt the draft options this year. Most importantly all those guys can easily play in the same rotation. Maybe eventually you move one of the guards, but you don't have to, they have enough size to play as a backcourt together.
 

LondonSox

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Passing on embiid and drafting porzingis is revisionist history.
Porzingis was actually reportedly high on the Sixers board but near universal consensus was Okafor was the right pick. Same for embiid. Risky of course but a true franchise changer potentially.

The best reason against Okafor was a combination of small ball and Noel and embiid. Not that someone else was clearly more talented etc.

And re luck Yeah not just that they haven't had any favours in the lottery balls but also that they've actually been out awfulled every year. But the embiid injury hurt, on top of some ot great lottery luck, this last year the Lakers not only got some luck but picked the supposed sixers target. I bet this team would be bad with Russell but it would look like a team.

But even more it was miami getting 10th pick in a top 10 protected pick and thunder also only just not passing theirs on too.

It's not just a lack or fortune on the balls but other teams results falling so close to a great outcome but just the wrong side. Miami was one loss from giving up the worst pick for them possible. And worse it likely got them a really good player
 

Cellar-Door

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Passing on embiid and drafting porzingis is revisionist history.
Porzingis was actually reportedly high on the Sixers board but near universal consensus was Okafor was the right pick. Same for embiid. Risky of course but a true franchise changer potentially.

The best reason against Okafor was a combination of small ball and Noel and embiid. Not that someone else was clearly more talented etc.

And re luck Yeah not just that they haven't had any favours in the lottery balls but also that they've actually been out awfulled every year. But the embiid injury hurt, on top of some ot great lottery luck, this last year the Lakers not only got some luck but picked the supposed sixers target. I bet this team would be bad with Russell but it would look like a team.

But even more it was miami getting 10th pick in a top 10 protected pick and thunder also only just not passing theirs on too.

It's not just a lack or fortune on the balls but other teams results falling so close to a great outcome but just the wrong side. Miami was one loss from giving up the worst pick for them possible. And worse it likely got them a really good player
Well it's obviously revisionist since that is the whole point, but it's also pretty reasonable. At the time we heard that teams were taking Embiid off their board because they found his medical records concerning, and certainly it was not at all crazy to think Philly could have passed on him. As for Okafor, a lot of people thought he was going to the Lakers, but it was also pointed out how bad a fit he was for the Sixers roster. Almost everyone who had Okafor 2 had Philly looking at one of Russell, Mudiay, Porzingis, so they were clearly options.
My point isn't that Embiid and Okafor weren't maybe considered BPA where they were drafted, but that each had real concerns, and there wasn't some huge cliff to the next prospect. Hinkie went with what he considered a straight BPA strategy, I was advocating that he probably would have been better off to at least minimally factor in roster construction.
 

LondonSox

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fair enough. I think it's hard to be objective when you see how things have gone, but it's also very clear that Embiid having ongoing injury concerns or Okafor being a poor natural fit for the limited roster already in place were reasonable discussed points at the time too. So I can't really argue with your points, even if I think we both do at least understand what Hinkie did.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In Okafor's first 3 months as a Sixer he has........

* Got in a scuffle outside a nightclub resulting in a gun being pulled on him.
* Punched Patrick McFinnigan in the face outside a Boston club after being told his team sucks.
* Now reported that he was stopped going 108 mpg over the Ben Franklin Bridge a couple weeks ago.

This team is going to end up killing somebody yet.
 

LondonSox

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I do think the extra stuff on Okafor is so typical after a bad news story on someone comes out.
IE This guys hasn't done anything wrong so I'll ignore/ won't pay for the guys who are trying to sell me stories. Then something breaks the veneer and then the journalists call around/ start investigating if there is any other dirt and any older stuff comes out of the woodwork.

The gun story is from October and speeding from months ago. Not to say it's not bad news or really depressing, but it's coming out like he did these things all in the last week!

I'm also a bit over the sixers being competitive until late, I am partly assuming this is the result of teams realizing they have to go go up a couple of gears, where the sixers just don't have extra gears, in fact the reverse (which is the other part) they don't have a clutch time lineup, esp no point guard. Can't run the offense without a point guard when the toher team goes up the gears.
 

Remagellan

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The going 108 on the bridge thing is disturbing. Not only did he endanger others, but there is a history of Philly athletes dying young due to reckless driving (Pelle Lindbergh, Jerome Brown) so that incident resonates here more than it might other places.
 

LondonSox

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I'm pretty amazing that didn't come out sooner, and it's worse than someone else pointing a gun at him or him punching a guy that shoved him etc. You don't get to even possibly blame or escape liability on that one. It's not seen as as bad, it seems, I'm not sure why. Time for him to grow up fast, I did see him apologize in a sensible way, bad decisions. I own them etc. Not dodging or passing blame.
 

bosox4283

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The going 108 on the bridge thing is disturbing. Not only did he endanger others, but there is a history of Philly athletes dying young due to reckless driving (Pelle Lindbergh, Jerome Brown) so that incident resonates here more than it might other places.
Plus (I live in Philly), the Ben Franklin Bridge is pretty narrow, often busy with other cars, and not that long. To hit 108 on that road is very dangerous.
 

jon abbey

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I don't think this has been linked here yet, a very good piece on Okafor in the current ESPN magazine. Some sample, IMO revealing quotes:

From draft day: "Four hours later, Minnesota takes Towns. Then, a shock: The Lakers pick Ohio State guard D'Angelo Russell. Those around Okafor openly wonder whether he'll fall to New York at No. 4 or whether Philadelphia will trade its No. 3 pick to a team in need of a big man. Instead, it's Philly at No. 3. Okafor hugs his family, puts on a 76ers hat and shakes hands with the commissioner. He's processing on the fly. No one in his circle imagined Philadelphia as an option. He's never even been to the city, never worked out for the team and knows only the basics: The Sixers seem to be in permanent rebuilding mode, an 18-win team last season. He also knows the team has two big men -- Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel. Okafor wonders how he will fit in. I worked toward this since I can remember, he says in an interview after the pick. This is the beginning of a dream. Then: I'm not disappointed. By now, the online comments are flooding in. Okafor doesn't look happy. He doesn't look appreciative. He doesn't look like he wants to be a Sixer."

""When I pictured myself in the NBA, I always imagined myself with an older guy taking me under his wing," Okafor says. "I don't have that." There's no bitterness in his voice; it's just a statement. "What I thought would happen didn't happen. I'm the face of the franchise right away.""

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14172705/the-lonely-burden-sixers-jahlil-okafor
 

jon abbey

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How can you possibly draft someone at #3 overall that you've never bothered to work out? Obviously Okafor was very high profile, his strengths and weaknesses were well known, people didn't think he'd fall out of the top two for a while, but even with all that, still to me that's very negligent. It's one thing if you're picking 10th or 12th and a guy drops out of the top 3, then I get drafting him even though you've had no interaction with him previously, but at #3 it just seems amateurish and negligent.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How can you possibly draft someone at #3 overall that you've never bothered to work out? Obviously Okafor was very high profile, his strengths and weaknesses were well known, people didn't think he'd fall out of the top two for a while, but even with all that, still to me that's very negligent. It's one thing if you're picking 10th or 12th and a guy drops out of the top 3, then I get drafting him even though you've had no interaction with him previously, but at #3 it just seems amateurish and negligent.
Nowhere it is said that Philly didn't attempt to get him in to workout though. His agent very well could have refused to have him workout for Philly which really wouldn't be surprising.
 

Cellar-Door

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Nowhere it is said that Philly didn't attempt to get him in to workout though. His agent very well could have refused to have him workout for Philly which really wouldn't be surprising.
Yeah rumors at the time were that he and his agent wanted nothing to do with Philly.
 

jon abbey

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That's a good point and somehow didn't occur to me, but then still why take him? He was obviously such a bad fit on the court and off, take someone who did work out with you and who wouldn't have come into the situation unhappy to begin with (Porzingis and Mudiay both worked out with Philly pre-draft). I don't buy that you take him anyway because he was head-and-shoulders the best talent left at that point, if anything you deal the pick and get at least something additional in exchange for moving down.

I don't have any innate bias against the Sixers and I've been as curious to see how this 'process' plays out as anyone, but it's starting to feel like the current Padres situation, a GM who is over his head dealing with a real world team.
 

Cellar-Door

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That's a good point and somehow didn't occur to me, but then still why take him? He was obviously such a bad fit on the court and off, take someone who did work out with you and who wouldn't have come into the situation unhappy to begin with (Porzingis and Mudiay both worked out with Philly pre-draft). I don't buy that you take him anyway because he was head-and-shoulders the best talent left at that point, if anything you deal the pick and get at least something additional in exchange for moving down.

I don't have any innate bias against the Sixers and I've been as curious to see how this 'process' plays out as anyone, but it's starting to feel like the current Padres situation, a GM who is over his head dealing with a real world team.
It's the argument I was making earlier. That's how I would do it, but Hinkie believes in a BPA approach, best asset, and trade if needed. I will admit it worked with MCW.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That's a good point and somehow didn't occur to me, but then still why take him? He was obviously such a bad fit on the court and off, take someone who did work out with you and who wouldn't have come into the situation unhappy to begin with (Porzingis and Mudiay both worked out with Philly pre-draft). I don't buy that you take him anyway because he was head-and-shoulders the best talent left at that point, if anything you deal the pick and get at least something additional in exchange for moving down.

I don't have any innate bias against the Sixers and I've been as curious to see how this 'process' plays out as anyone, but it's starting to feel like the current Padres situation, a GM who is over his head dealing with a real world team.
It was a GREAT year to move down too as it's risky to tie the hopes of your future to a kid/agent who want nothing to do with the organizations vision. Yes, it's been clear to me for awhile he's in way too deep and every time I keep thinking he has put himself in a position to dig out of it he goes and continues appearing in way too deep. I admire having a vision and sticking to it but for a very smart young person he's sabotaging his entire career in one big swoop.
 

bowiac

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Really depends on if you think Okafor was in another tier from the other talent, or whether was the best player available, but not by much. As I've said, I had Okafor a tier below some guys taken after him, so I'm the wrong guy to guess there however.
 

Tony C

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That's a good point and somehow didn't occur to me, but then still why take him? He was obviously such a bad fit on the court and off, take someone who did work out with you and who wouldn't have come into the situation unhappy to begin with (Porzingis and Mudiay both worked out with Philly pre-draft). I don't buy that you take him anyway because he was head-and-shoulders the best talent left at that point, if anything you deal the pick and get at least something additional in exchange for moving down.

I don't have any innate bias against the Sixers and I've been as curious to see how this 'process' plays out as anyone, but it's starting to feel like the current Padres situation, a GM who is over his head dealing with a real world team.
I agree with the general critique, but as to why take him....I mean, it's not like it's been a bad pick, he's working out pretty damn well. Yes they had a surplus at the position, but he sure as hell looks better than Noel and, well, we know about Embiid. The issue is more about those players than that Okafor is a bad pick. Sure, in retrospect Porzingis is a better fit, and even Mudiay, too, but I don't buy that Okafor was a mistake per se. I will say Hinkie seems to have no vision. Or, rather, too much of a vision, not enough sense to realize he shouldn't be such a purist in pursuing that vision.

Hinkie and Morey are giving new age GMs a bad name, not that I think that's fair (it's fair about them, just not fair about more analytics-based GM-ing, which is doing fine). Man alive are the Rockets bad. I've barely seen them play -- is it Lawson or....what?
 

Cellar-Door

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I agree with the general critique, but as to why take him....I mean, it's not like it's been a bad pick, he's working out pretty damn well. Yes they had a surplus at the position, but he sure as hell looks better than Noel and, well, we know about Embiid. The issue is more about those players than that Okafor is a bad pick. Sure, in retrospect Porzingis is a better fit, and even Mudiay, too, but I don't buy that Okafor was a mistake per se. I will say Hinkie seems to have no vision. Or, rather, too much of a vision, not enough sense to realize he shouldn't be such a purist in pursuing that vision.

Hinkie and Morey are giving new age GMs a bad name, not that I think that's fair (it's fair about them, just not fair about more analytics-based GM-ing, which is doing fine). Man alive are the Rockets bad. I've barely seen them play -- is it Lawson or....what?
I don't think he looks any better than Noel as a center. They are basically opposites, Noel is a phenomenal defender at the 5 with terrible offense. Okafor is a high potential offensive C (though his per games are at this point mostly a product of volume, he's a very inefficient scorer right now) and a poor defender.
 

LondonSox

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I do think you are giving up on him awfully early defensively and esp for rebounds etc, he's improving his rebounding already and defensively there aren't too many big men who come so young from a big program where they had limited responsibility and shine.

I don't see any reason Okafor can't be a solid rebounder, probably not elite given his ups, but he's good positioning wise and boxing out. Defensively yeah he's never going to be Noel, and he's likely to be given fits by the Golden state super small lineup etc, but he'll be ok down low and will improve on help and pick and rolls etc over time.

Let's also be clear it's a bit weird that they didn't have him in etc, he was clearly a potential pick. If his agent wouldn't have him in though and the Sixers felt he was a talent / trade chip above all others then... yeah. I mean if you have him as number 2 on the board behind KAT and it's not close, it's not like there isn't a lot of information and tape on the kid etc. Hinkie has been following him since high school.

But it would be nice to know there is a plan not just a spreadsheet sometimes, and I'm very logical as a person.

I do think in today's NBA you probably need to think about trading Noel or Okafor. I'm not sure in the modern NBA if Okafor is clearly better, he might be, but Noel can guard a green at centre or a big boy too. He just can't really shoot. Or drive that well. I guess you see what you can do over the season see if someone comes along with something trade wise that is crazy (like MCW or Kings) and see what happens for the lottery etc.
There's also Embiid on top of all this.

Ah I don't know any more, the Philly media is tearing itself apart with self loathing over the Sixers/ Eagles/ Flyers/ Phillies combo of total suck. Everything is negative, they're digging for dirt on everyone and everything, it's not helpful and it's very depressing.

I think you have to see what hinkie can pull off this year, with the lottery and potential trades etc.
 

jon abbey

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FWIW, Okafor is last in the entire league in ESPN's 'Real Plus/Minus' ratings, which was part of an Insider piece the other day. They make the point that Durant had terrible RPM numbers his first two seasons, so obviously it could just be part of his learning curve, but still pretty interesting, as you'd never guess it from the box scores. The most relevant part:

"Jahlil Okafor ranks dead last in the NBA in real-plus minus. This might seem surprising, especially since the big man leads all rookies in scoring, but the box score doesn't always tell us much about a player's real impact.

Okafor's nightmarish -6.02 RPM indicates that the big man actually manages to make the 0-17 Sixers worse with his play on both sides of the ball, no small feat.

How? On offense, the combination of his high usage, his low efficiency (mediocre shooting, high turnover rate) and the problems of creating good spacing around Okafor have become a deadly trifecta for Philly.

On a more positive note, while Okafor came into the league with a reputation for lackluster effort on D, his -0.53 defensive RPM, while far below average for an NBA 7-footer, suggests that he hasn't been truly awful on the defensive end. And at age 19, he has plenty of time to become better at both ends."
 

Remagellan

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The key thing to remember with Okafor is his age as that last sentence points out. The Sixers may see him as their future Tim Duncan (although admittedly he seems far from that both on and off the court), but in fairness to Okafor, Duncan came into the league after four full years of playing college basketball at the highest level, and Jahlil only one year of that. Noel in his year plus of playing NBA ball has emerged as an elite defender. Maybe everyone should give Okafor at least a year or so of playing at this level before pronouncing this is the player that he is and always will be.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sixers have to be watching the Lakers' situation very closely. They look like a decent bet to finish bottom 3 and will be shedding the Kobe dead weight, which will make them an attractive option for FAs once again. If they're able to reel in a Durant, make another high lotto selection, and perhaps trade some youth for another established star, then the value of that pick would really nosedive.
 

bowiac

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I agree that this year shouldn't really change our evaluation of Okafor so far. He hasn't been a revelation, but that's fine, since he's a rookie, but he's also shown enough to not be considered a bust. I'll say however that Noel had one of the best defensive profiles in recent draft history, so him emerging as a top NBA defender doesn't really tell us much about Okafor in that respect.
 

bowiac

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Buried within this hit piece on Hinkie was this nugget:

The next big test for Hinkie (if he lasts that long) will involve Okafor, who according to league sources will strongly consider the tactic that Greg Monroe utilized in Detroit last season: signing a one-year qualifying offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent rather than agreeing to extend his rookie deal. That decision is a few years off, but there's no evidence that the Sixers actually will be competitive by then.
This is an interesting side angle to The Process. Incumbency rights within the NBA CBA are strong, but it's not the reserve system. Franchise guys are actually free to leave if they hate you enough.
 

nighthob

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Honestly I was shocked that Jimmy Butler didn't do it, as he would have made about 25% more had he waited one more year.
 

Cellar-Door

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Buried within this hit piece on Hinkie was this nugget:
This is an interesting side angle to The Process. Incumbency rights within the NBA CBA are strong, but it's not the reserve system. Franchise guys are actually free to leave if they hate you enough.
The thing is also, the higher you were picked the easier it is for you to take this route. A guy like Jimmy Butler made less on his entire rookie contract than Okafor makes in 1 year. He isn't going to be desperate to cash in first chance he gets.
 

BigSoxFan

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It is pretty funny that the game they win is literally the worst possible game that they could have won.
 

Cellar-Door

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What can you do though, combine the worst coach in the NBA (by a HUGE margin) with the single most damaging player in the NBA and they never had a chance.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Sixers have to be watching the Lakers' situation very closely. They look like a decent bet to finish bottom 3 and will be shedding the Kobe dead weight, which will make them an attractive option for FAs once again. If they're able to reel in a Durant, make another high lotto selection, and perhaps trade some youth for another established star, then the value of that pick would really nosedive.
The Lakers pick they acquired is top 3 protected. If the Lakers combination of suck & luck leds to them landing in the top 3, the pick is top 3 protected in 2017, then unprotected in 2018, but the Lakers owe their 2018 pick to Orlando, top 5 protected.
 
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