Brockos Week(aka Denver Week)

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
22,089
A Scud Away from Hell
Am I the only one that's shocked at the -5.5 initial line (it may be down near -3 now)?

This Pats offense has struggled mightily against the same team that allowed 466 yards in the air week 2. The offensive line was not only beaten 1-on-1, but missed assignments all night (White included). Denver has a #2 pass rushing D in DVOA. Broncos also excel at shutting down the short/intermediary routes (-31.8% on short routes, #1 DVOA).

Plus, Osweiler looked pretty good and could be the 3-4th best QB they've faced all year. He'll have plenty of drives to pile up FGs.

I'd have thought it'd be Denver - 3 minimum. Hope the sharps are right but am scratching my head how Pats could be favored right at this moment.

Edit: usually Pats gain a lot of hidden yards in two areas: special teams play and net penalty yards.

Regrettably, Denver's ST is pretty decent in its own right. #7 in DVOA. They are, however, 9th most penalized team in the league.

Broncos are particularly onerous on defense, where they lead the league with 44 flags & 469 yards (vs. league's least penalized team on defense, NE with just 17 flags).

Salsa: http://www.nflpenalties.com/phase.php?year=2015

Footnote: Buffalo has given up a whopping 852 yards on penalties. With 10 games played, that's an obvious 85+ yards per game. That's about twice as more as the 49ers, who've only given up 429 penalty yards on the season.
 
Last edited:

Ralphwiggum

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2012
9,824
Needham, MA
Feels like a pick 'em game to me with the Pats injury situation, game in Denver, but with the Pats with a significant advantage at QB even if Osweiller is league average or even a bit better than that.
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Building on @SeoulSoxFan, Wade Phillips does what Wade Phillips does. So does Gary Kubiak. They're both good and have had (isolated) good games against the Patriots. I highly doubt there's any carryover in concepts from last week so I think it'll just be execution that matters. Stuff like penalty yards and ST is absolutely where to be looking.
_________________________________
ITP is still trying to figure out to use these, but the Pats Game Map from last week:


The Broncos Game Map from last week:
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
22,089
A Scud Away from Hell
@STEVEBURTONWBZ: Danny Amendola is out against the Broncos. In fact, not even traveling with the team. #WBZ Not real shocking.
I'm cautiously optimistic about Keshawn Martin coming back & continued flashes from Chris Harper.

However, having Asante Cleveland seems like a big clue to me. More 2-TE sets for sure, but where he could really help is in the end zone.

Pats have gotten away from the pretty unique 4-TE sets near the goaline, ever since they traded away Hooman. The staff may be thinking a combo of Gronk, Chandler, Williams, and Cleveland allows a better chance of getting a TD, especially with both Amendola & Edelman out.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,274
“@jeffphowe: Danny Amendola has NOT been ruled out for Sunday yet, per sources. His knee will be tested tomorrow before Pats decide who travels.”
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
If we have no Amendola I expect lots of that two TE stuff, and quite a bit of screen passes. Pats haven't shown much of that lately and they've got three backs who can catch that ball out of the backfield.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Volin hedges, saying: "There's a report that Amendola won't play tomorrow. We'll have more clarity later if Amendola makes the team flight."

Edit: As others are saying, it's pretty clear the WR corps tomorrow will be LaFell, Harper, and perhaps Martin. Not ideal, and we'll likely need Gronk to be GRONK.

Personally, I'm excited to see what Harper can do. Quick feet and some decent elusiveness. If he looks good on punt returns, he may well continue to handle those duties through the rest of the regular season to lighten Danny's load.
 
Last edited:

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,274
“@tomecurran: Danny Amendola will indeed miss game vs. Broncos as @STEVEBURTONWBZ reported first.”
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
Gronk's prolly going to be doubled the entire game at this rate. Running the ball doesn't seem like a good idea... Got nothing really. Maybe they can pick off Brock a couple times and get some points from the D.
 

TomTerrific

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,700
Wayland, MA
In surprised no one's talking about the weather for this game. Current forecast is for the game to start with temps in the low 20's, and moderate snow starting just prior to game time.

We all know Brady's ability in snow games. Of course, we know nothing of Osweiler's abilities in same.

The snow and cold makes me doubly sad we're not seeing Peyton
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,044
The more I think it through the more they have to use White in the short game. There's not much else for choice
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Osweiler played at Arizona State. Maybe someone can find a Pac10 game in a snowstorm, but I doubt it. And we know how often he has seen the field in Denver.

On balance, this is good. I'll take the element of chance that comes with this weather. It shapes up as a butt ugly game.
 
Osweiler played at Arizona State. Maybe someone can find a Pac10 game in a snowstorm, but I doubt it. And we know how often he has seen the field in Denver.

On balance, this is good. I'll take the element of chance that comes with this weather. It shapes up as a butt ugly game.
I'll take Brady over any QB in bad weather, but Osweiler is from Montana. During the Bears game last week the announcers mentioned the weather angle. Osweiler said he actually liked playing in colder temperatures. He's also 6'8" so I'm sure his hands don't have trouble grabbing a slick, cold football.
 

NortheasternPJ

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 16, 2004
19,271
Gronk's prolly going to be doubled the entire game at this rate. Running the ball doesn't seem like a good idea... Got nothing really. Maybe they can pick off Brock a couple times and get some points from the D.
It's sounds like you got a secret recording from Belichick talking to McDaniels during the week putting the game plan in

I'm concerned with this game plan. I hope they figured out a better plan.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,867
San Andreas Fault
I'll take Brady over any QB in bad weather, but Osweiler is from Montana. During the Bears game last week the announcers mentioned the weather angle. Osweiler said he actually liked playing in colder temperatures. He's also 6'8" so I'm sure his hands don't have trouble grabbing a slick, cold football.
Hadn't had a DFG flashback in a while. Announcers have actually been pretty good lately talking about just the game. We'll see from smarmy Cris tomorrow night.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Yeah autocorrect fail. Denver is an elite pass defense, they're good against the run but not invulnerable
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Doubling Gronk just means White is going to have a big game doing a Lewis impression.
Let's hope so.

I actually would like to see a few 2 RB sets -- Bolden and White are two of the most versatile guys left on the roster, and it could be a way to throw off the Denver D if the Pats go with two backs who can carry the ball, stay in to block, or motion out to catch passes on any given play.

Edit: And at the risk of sounding crazy, I also wonder whether Ebner could be called upon to do... Something on a play or two.

Highlight videos are highlight videos, but dude was amazing with a rugby ball in his hands and seems to have a pretty impressive size/strength/speed combo. He seems like a smart player who could do something interesting if asked -- end around, fake handoff into blocking, etc. -- and is unlikely to do something really dumb with the ball.
 
Last edited:

Reardon's Beard

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 3, 2005
3,795
My best guess: coach is going to run the ball and run the ball hard. He's going to capitalize on his best strategy based on the tools he has available to him. I think that means two tight end sets and a lot of running from Blount with James backing him up. Throw in the occasional play action to one of the TEs and LaFell, there you go. 21 points, maybe 24 or 27 with Ghost kicking but my numbers are probably overly optimistic. This game will be decided by the New England defense and special teams. All three phases of the game need to work to get the W, offense won't be able to make up for shortcomings in this one.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
He was on the practice field this week, unless you think it was a body double.

If his condition were that bad, he'd have hit non football injury reserves. They are tight lipped but not irrational.
 

PeaceSignMoose

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 13, 2006
1,745
Boston
I'm mobile so I can't dig this up now, but I remember there was a series of tweets (Loyko maybe) who indicated how often Belichick likes to have a guy come back from an injury on Friday, then play the following Sunday after a full week of practice.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
My best guess: coach is going to run the ball and run the ball hard. He's going to capitalize on his best strategy based on the tools he has available to him. I think that means two tight end sets and a lot of running from Blount with James backing him up. Throw in the occasional play action to one of the TEs and LaFell, there you go.
This is my line of thinking. Denver has great CBs; if you play 12 personnel you make them take one of their CBs off the field, or you should have a favorable running matchup if they want to put Talib on Gronk.

Let's hope so.
I actually would like to see a few 2 RB sets -- Bolden and White are two of the most versatile guys left on the roster, and it could be a way to throw off the Denver D if the Pats go with two backs who can carry the ball, stay in to block, or motion out to catch passes on any given play.
I think we could see some of the 2-back sets, but with White as the de facto slot receiver. With only 2 or 3 WR active, I'd be surprised if he didn't get reps at WR in practice. Who else are they going to use?
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
This is my line of thinking. Denver has great CBs; if you play 12 personnel you make them take one of their CBs off the field, or you should have a favorable running matchup if they want to put Talib on Gronk.


I think we could see some of the 2-back sets, but with White as the de facto slot receiver. With only 2 or 3 WR active, I'd be surprised if he didn't get reps at WR in practice. Who else are they going to use?
Agreed with your 2nd point.

As for your first, I still have no idea how McDaniels will try to attack.

Running makes sense, both to avoid Denver's strength and to cover our personnel weakness at WR (and our iffy offensive line) at the moment.

Still, last year against mostly the same Broncos personnel (albeit a different scheme and coordinator) Brady attempted 53 passes to only 23 attempted rushes to great effect.

Just a few weeks ago, the Chiefs managed to put up 29 on the Broncos despite their starting RB only rushing for 2.9/carry.

I think the run game will be a feature of the game plan, but I'm fascinated to see how McDaniels leverages the rest of the offense to buttress it.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,367
Or go back to the 3 TE sets they did on the goal line early in the season, and choose run or split em out by audible, based on the match ups. Why can't that be effective at the 50?
Michael Williams is out of action and Hooman was traded elsewhere, leaving Asante Cleveland as the 3rd option. The way things are going, Pats won't even have 2 TEs to finish this game.
 

JohnnyK

Member
SoSH Member
May 8, 2007
1,941
Wolfern, Austria
Dewey McDonald released again after 2 days, Darius Fleming up from the PS. (Source)

Looks like a pure special-teams move, seeing that no other linebacker apart from Collins appeared on the injury report.

On a somewhat unrelated note, I am surprised Edelman is not listed on the injury report, seeing that he is on the active roster and the injury report policy appears to dictate that he should be on there.
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2005
4,459
Worcester
Dewey McDonald released again after 2 days, Darius Fleming up from the PS. (Source)

Looks like a pure special-teams move, seeing that no other linebacker apart from Collins appeared on the injury report.

On a somewhat unrelated note, I am surprised Edelman is not listed on the injury report, seeing that he is on the active roster and the injury report policy appears to dictate that he should be on there.
He was listed as out on the Friday injury report.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Running makes sense, both to avoid Denver's strength and to cover our personnel weakness at WR (and our iffy offensive line) at the moment.

Still, last year against mostly the same Broncos personnel (albeit a different scheme and coordinator) Brady attempted 53 passes to only 23 attempted rushes to great effect.
Yeah, I don't think Denver's weak against the run or anything, but passing into the teeth of their D with Chris Harper and a not-yet-in-sync LaFell seems like a recipe for disaster. Last year when they played Denver they also hadn't picked up Blount yet. Part of thinking here is the particular package. If you go 2 TE, does Denver stay in base or go to nickel? If they go base, that gets a CB off the field and Gronk (or a WR) is matched on a LB. If they go nickel, you oughta be able to run.

Just a few weeks ago, the Chiefs managed to put up 29 on the Broncos despite their starting RB only rushing for 2.9/carry.
If the Broncos turn the ball over five times the Pats might score 29, too. KC's scoring drives that game were 31, 43, 19, 8, 46, 9, and 81 (which was basically all one play) yards. The Chiefs' offense was picking off Manning, essentially.