Brockos Week(aka Denver Week)

I'm hopeful that the issues the Pats OL had on Monday were a combination of Buffalo's schemes and Patriot inexperience (in the sense of this was the first time this grouping had been together -- which sucks when you are going against confusing schemes, --and in the sense that Cannon, Vollmer, and to a lesser extent, Stork were all still getting into/back into game shape

Collins back would be huge. I see a game similar to last week's for the Pats' O, unfortunately, so hoping BB and Patricia can cook something up to confuse the new kid in Denver.

Based on local talk radio, a lot of confidence in Denver for this one. They seem to think homefield advantage, the Denver D, The Pats injuries, and Brockstar at QB are the perfect combination for a Denver victory.

Sox and Rocks said:

Based on local talk radio, a lot of confidence in Denver for this one. They seem to think homefield advantage, the Denver D, The Pats injuries, and Brockstar at QB are the perfect combination for a Denver victory.

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I buy the first three, but I don't really see having Osweiler at QB as a particularly strong point in their favor given that he's a rookie starting his second game going against one of the best defenses in the NFL (at least by points allowed against). The only way that makes sense to me is if they're saying comparatively that they are in a stronger position with him in this game than if they had Peyton, otherwise I'm skeptical.

The OL must play much better this week or with Denver's D and our shortage of reliable weapons, this will be a turnover fest.

Denver's offense is becoming more productive (not hard) and NE's less productive (unavoidable). I would be reasonably confident too.

I see both teams in the teens in this game. Special teams or a key turnover may decide it.

Yup, everything about this set up seems like it should make them confident. Catching the Pats at just the right time, with all of our injuries and their move away from the turnover-machine that Peyton had become this year. That said, if the Pats can go on the road, this banged up, and get out of there with a win, I will feel really good about our Super Bowl chances, especially given the fact that this game will possibly have big implications for home field as a common opponent with CIN. If any two of Ware, Sanders, and Mathis miss this game, and if Collins could come back, that would go a long way towards equalizing this one.

They really need Collins in this one, as Denver's going to be running short-intermediate routes all over the field with Daniels and Davis. I feel pretty good about New England's Superbowl chances regardless of this week's outcome, though a win this week would be really impressive. I'm honestly not sure they'll face a more difficult task the entire rest of the season until the Superbowl. I think I'd rather play in Cincy than Denver, given Denver's D and the altitude issue, which I think impacts teams more than is given credit for.

I think that this is the game where the injuries finally have become too much. I hope I'm wrong.

tims4wins said:

I see both teams in the teens in this game. Special teams or a key turnover may decide it.

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Agreed. This would also be a good time to use a gadget play if they've got a good one up their sleeve. One big play could well be the difference in this type of game and I think we're going to struggle to sustain drives and generate offense.

If John Fox's elects to kick a field goal in the 4th, the story would be about how the Broncos only scored 17 pts against a mediocre Chi D.

I feel somewhat confident in the Pats because I think Belichick and Brady have a really good handle on the Wade Phillips defensive strategy. I think the Pats score in the low to mid 20's and don't see the Broncos getting more than 17 unless the Pats have a bad day with turnovers.

One thing I will say on behalf of the Pats - and I realize this has little bearing on the game - is that over the last 4 or 5 years, they seem to have won almost all of these big AFC conference matchups. They beat Denver in the regular season every year from 2011-2014. Beat Cincy last year. Have not lost to Luck yet. Beat the Ravens and Steelers a few times. They seem to really get up for these head to head matchups that affect playoff seeding.

pokey_reese said:

Yup, everything about this set up seems like it should make them confident. Catching the Pats at just the right time, with all of our injuries and their move away from the turnover-machine that Peyton had become this year. That said, if the Pats can go on the road, this banged up, and get out of there with a win, I will feel really good about our Super Bowl chances, especially given the fact that this game will possibly have big implications for home field as a common opponent with CIN. If any two of Ware, Sanders, and Mathis miss this game, and if Collins could come back, that would go a long way towards equalizing this one.

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I hear what you're saying but I am assuming (OK, hoping) that the Pats will be a lot healthier during the playoffs than they will be on Sunday night. They should have Edelman back. Amendola should be over his knee issue. The o line will have been together for a while. Collins should be back and at full strength. Of course, new injuries can and probably will pop up. But my point is that I don't see the Pats' SB chances as being especially tied to how they do in this game. Sure, if they can win under these circumstances, it speaks well about how they can do when they are at closer to full strength. But I am assuming (again, hoping) that the team we see in the playoffs will look a lot different than the current version.

Pats D plus playing a phenomenal, yet somewhat predictable, Wade Phillips D, gives me some confidence. Rex can't beat the Pats, but he sure as shit can design some exotic D and confuse the offense. One more week of OL cohesion is going to be exponential too, I'm liking the hometown team 31-21

i am here to awaner your q

Sox and Rocks said:

Based on local talk radio, a lot of confidence in Denver for this one. They seem to think homefield advantage, the Denver D, The Pats injuries, and Brockstar at QB are the perfect combination for a Denver victory.

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it should be if Denver does not win Sunday when are we going to this is the weakest NE will be this year even if denver wins Sunday i expect denver to lose @ pitt or ciny basicly if NE wins sunday i expect then to be 16-0

http://www.patspulpit.com/2015/11/24/9796408/w-12-ne-den

these are my through if u enjoy pats pupuit

Denver's Red Zone offense has been a big weakness this year (under both Manning and last week with Brock).

NE's Red Zone defense has been excellent even if they give up yards between the 20s.

That dynamic is my big concern for Denver. NE's offensive injuries may not matter if Denver can't score some TDs inside 20 yards as opposed to FGs.

Also, Denver signed Christian Ponder today to back up Brock.

86spike said:

Denver's Red Zone offense has been a big weakness this year (under both Manning and last week with Brock).

NE's Red Zone defense has been excellent even if they give up yards between the 20s.

That dynamic is my big concern for Denver. NE's offensive injuries may not matter if Denver can't score some TDs inside 20 yards as opposed to FGs.

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denver red zone def has been good the last 2 weeks too this couild be a 18-15 game

Mr Jums said:

I buy the first three, but I don't really see having Osweiler at QB as a particularly strong point in their favor given that he's a rookie starting his second game going against one of the best defenses in the NFL (at least by points allowed against).

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You know he was drafted in 2012 right?

86spike said:

Also, Denver signed Christian Ponder today to back up Brock.

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No way, Ponder is there to hand Trevor Siemian's helmet to him when Block tweaks his ankle. Just a little NU love.

Though I'm sure Ponder really is Osweiler's backup, any word on what the Broncs think of Siemian (that is, if they think of him at all, a la Rick in Casablanca)

As worried as I was about the Bills game, I'm strangely (perhaps irrationally) optimistic about NE's chances in this game. As others have noted, the Patriots get up for games like these, especially when the prevailing sentiment is in favor of their opponent. I think we are going to see a statement game from the Pats defense - the 'Brockstar' is in for a long evening.

Ware missed practice again this morning. Mathis too.

Still no Collins....ugghhh..

Danny Amendola was a limited participant today at practice. Slater returned. Vollmer is over his concussion. Still no Collins.

He's at the facilities working out, I can't imagine he'd miss another after this week, assuming he does miss the game.

That he's actually working out now is a great sign. The last time I had a deathbed type illness I lost 20lbs. And I'm not a finely tuned athlete. He just needs to bulk back up, he'll be fine.

Apparently Ware is unlikely to play this week.

I am much more pessimistic about this game than usual.

Here's why:

1. The Pats offense, as we know, requires the receivers to read the D and adjust their routes based on the coverage. That, in turn, requires the receivers and Tom to be on the same page. Julian being out was a big blow given how simpatico he and Tom are. Adding Danny to the injured list under the circumstances is a killer, especially given how good Denver's defense is on all three levels. Now, true, Danny could play, but I tend to doubt that he will given the natural tendency to want to give him a little more time to heal before seeing live action. But whether Tom will have confidence in guys like Harper and Martin (if he plays) to make the right reads and make the plays, and whether they can in fact do so with any degree of consistency, are legitimate questions. The offense has looked much choppier since Julian went down against the Giants, and I think we are going to see more of the same, especially if we don't have Amendola on the field.

2. Having re-watched the Bills game, the offensive line was even worse last Sunday than I thought it was. I don't expect Denver to be nearly as complicated as what Rexy dialed up. They will just play and wont try to confuse Tom all that much. But Cannon was just awful and Andrews had a tough time when he was in there. I know I am an outlier, but I would prefer Stork at tackle to Cannon at this point and think the only hope is that Marcus will play a lot better in his second week back with the rust worn off and after having adjusted to the speed of the game, sort of like LaFell's jump from week 1 to week 2 back. But I am not holding my breath.

3. The Denver D, even without Ware, would have been challenging even for the Pats' healthy offense. Not that I would have been negative about that match-up. I'm just making the point that with all the injuries, it's gone from an interesting head to head contest of top units to something quite different.

4. The altitude thing. Many players over the years have commented that playing in Denver is like nowhere else. They're sucking wind by the second half and truly have trouble breathing. Denver is not unbeatable at home but the altitude advantage is real and truly extraordinary.

There are flip sides, of course. The Pats D is playing extremely well. Brady is Brady, and as cliche as it sounds, finds a way to score. Brock Osweiler, while not an actual rookie, is extremely inexperienced, and BB/Patricia Defenses have generally had their way with such QBs. The Pats routinely rise to the occasion. I like the BB-Kubiak match-up.

If forced to predict, my gut would go Pats. But I have a lot less conviction about that than I have had in a very long time.

This would be a fantastic week for the defense or special teams to put points on the board.

Edit: also, the reemergence of Brandon LaFell would be HUGE this week. If he can lock in his WR1 status, that will go a long ways for Gronk's game along with all of the other WR options.

TheoShmeo said:

I am much more pessimistic about this game than usual.

Here's why:

1. The Pats offense, as we know, requires the receivers to read the D and adjust their routes based on the coverage. That, in turn, requires the receivers and Tom to be on the same page. Julian being out was a big blow given how simpatico he and Tom are. Adding Danny to the injured list under the circumstances is a killer, especially given how good Denver's defense is on all three levels. Now, true, Danny could play, but I tend to doubt that he will given the natural tendency to want to give him a little more time to heal before seeing live action. But whether Tom will have confidence in guys like Harper and Martin (if he plays) to make the right reads and make the plays, and whether they can in fact do so with any degree of consistency, are legitimate questions. The offense has looked much choppier since Julian went down against the Giants, and I think we are going to see more of the same, especially if we don't have Amendola on the field.
.

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I don't remember which play it was but yeah, this. TB was steamed after one blitz in particular when none of the receivers read the blitz and turned around at all (at least on the offensive left where the camera was pointed). Ready or not, Harper and Martin are going to be asked to fill some big shoes. Hopefully they can step up.

Brunell on ESPN now talking about Brock like he's Roger Staubach. So transparent.

RedOctober3829 said:

@MikeReiss: LB Jamie Collins (undisclosed illness) back on practice field for Patriots. Hasn't practiced since Nov. 6, two days before Washington game.

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Outstanding news, even if he doesn't play against Denver. I was starting to worry that this was not going to end well.

Who knows if Collins has enough strength to go on Sunday, but this is a positive sign. If the Broncos defense is the best in the league, the Pats defense isn't far behind. Expect a real low scoring game this Sunday.

Doug Kyed ‏@DougKyed 4m4 minutes ago
Asante Cleveland's elevation to the 53-man roster might not be a good sign for Michael Williams (knee) - added to the injury report Wed.

Thanksgiving with Tom, Giselle and the kids...
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/tom-brady-thankful-he-can-frighten-his-kids-dressed-as-giant-turkey-140335197.html

86spike said:

Apparently Ware is unlikely to play this week.

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“@TroyRenck: No DeMarcus Ware practicing. As I reported yesterday Ware told me he’s not playing”

Things that make me pessimistic about this game:

1. The OL troubles that really showed up last week. It was a disaster against the Bills, and I worry they're going to get Brady injured.

2. The WR injuries. Brady could get rid of the ball quickly with Edelman and Amendola and Lewis out there. All dynamic players. If they're missing all three, the dropoff is enormous. They still have Blount and Gronk and LaFell and Chandler, so there's still some talent there, but the offense has to look different, and Brady probably will need more time to throw, which, from point #1, I worry they'll not be able to provide.

3. The running game. Or, more specifically, the running game struggles. Last two games:

- 23 rushes, 77 yards (3.3 ypc)
- 22 rushes, 85 yards (3.9 ypc)

If the passing game is going to have more difficulty, one way to help them is to run more effectively. I'd like to see them be able to pound the ball on Sunday, but I'm not sure how well that will work against Denver's run D (8th in rushing yards allowed per game, at 93.7, and 2nd in rushing yards allowed per carry, at 3.5).

Things that make me optimistic about this game:

1. The Patriots' defense has been fantastic. I think they show up big on Sunday. The Broncos tackles are weak, so I expect Jones, Ninkovich, and Sheard to be very disruptive. If they bring people over to help, and leave their interior guys one-on-one against the Patriots' DTs, expect Easley - who is coming on like a freight train - to have a big game. Also, watch for Mayo and Hightower to successfully bring pressure up the middle.

2. Osweiler. He has talent. But he's so inexperienced, and Belichick tends to do well against inexperienced QBs.

3. Brady, with a week to work with guys like Harper and Martin, should find a rhythm with them. I expect Brady to have a good game, so long as the OL gives him time to throw. Denver not having Ware available (which seems likely to be the case at this point) is a huge boost.

RedOctober3829 said:

@MikeReiss: LB Jamie Collins (undisclosed illness) back on practice field for Patriots. Hasn't practiced since Nov. 6, two days before Washington game.

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@jeffphowe: JAMIE COLLINS IS HERE AT PRACTICE. JAMIE COLLINS IS HERE AT PRACTICE. JAMIE COLLINS IS HERE AT PRACTICE. JAMIE COLLINS IS HERE AT PRACTICE.

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“@DougKyed: Patriots inj. report:
OUT Coleman Edelman
DOUBTFUL Collins
QUESTIONABLE Keshawn, Williams, AmenDola
PROBABLE Jones, Branch, Cannon, Jackson”