Recent content by Yo La Tengo

  1. Yo La Tengo

    Who Should The Sox Extend?

    How about Chris Martin? Turns 38 this year with only 303 MLB innings in his career. I bring this up somewhat in jest since extensions are usually not for guys approaching 40 but I'd love to see him here for another year and also potentially extend Hendricks once he shows he's healthy.
  2. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    I think assessing "stuff" and pitch shapes and other specific objective measurements is really helpful when deciding who to draft or which under-performing player should be targeted. For example, Giolito was really bad the second half of last year and not great the year before, but there could...
  3. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Here's my speculative take: Breslow and crew agree with your position on Montgomery's "stuff" and decided early on that he was not going to be a target, especially considering the anticipated cost. Plus, no long term deals for pitchers over 30 (which I agree with!). They targeted Giolito...
  4. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    I think that is likely why the Sox, and other teams, were hesitant to offer a 6 year deal. But do they think he's going to not perform this year, at age 31, after putting up very consistent stats over the last three years? And their pitching mojo/tweeks/program would work on Giolito but not...
  5. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Worth noting that the Sox braintrust was definitely not interested in playing out this experiment when they signed Giolito. Which is significant when assessing their expectations for this staff and as a point of comparison with potentially signing Montgomery, since Breslow and Co. decided they...
  6. Yo La Tengo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    Eno Sarris is a stats guy at the Athletic who writes some smart stuff. Here's his summary about the Sox, in which he predicts Boston with have a top-five rotation in the AL: The Red Sox rotation had the fifth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in the American League this spring, and that’s usually...
  7. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    The Sox have more than enough resources to easily cover any of the monetary penalties that could be levied for a payroll well over that initial line. Considering the Sox are currently $95 million under the initial penalty threshold for 2025, they have a ton of room to maneuver and could likely...
  8. Yo La Tengo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    This is great! Sox pitchers threw more than 5 innings 62 times last year, winning 41 of those games. And they threw less 5 innings 63 times, and won only 20 of those games. Not sure what to make of that symmetry but my instinct is getting the sub-5 inning starts up to 5 innings is likely...
  9. Yo La Tengo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    I don't disagree with your math but I am concerned that there is essentially no room for injuries or poor performance from the five starters. I can see plausible upside for each of them. But I think it is really unlikely that all five achieve those improvements in both performance and...
  10. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    A couple of relevant details. Any team that is over the initial luxury tax threshold and signs a free agent who turned down a a qualifying offer will lose $1 million from their international signing pool while a team that is not over the luxury tax would only lose $500,000. In addition, a team...
  11. Yo La Tengo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    I agree with you about Pivetta and hope he can get to 180 innings. Bello seems like a different story in that he really faded down the stretch last year, pitching poorly over his last 5 or 6 starts. He looked worn out (that was reported as well). I hope he can get to 170 innings but that...
  12. Yo La Tengo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    I think the general consensus is that a pitcher should add 25-30 innings year to year. Here are the innings pitched by each of the 5 starters last year: Bello- 157 Pivetta- 142 Crawford- 129 Houck- 106 Whitlock- 71 That's 605 innings which would project to a total of 730 innings to 755...
  13. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Yes, but those penalties are not really that big of a deal in comparison to the total payroll. If the Sox had a CBT payroll of $256 million payroll this year, the penalty would a payment of $3.8 million. Next year, if they had a payroll of $260 million, the penalty would go up but so would...
  14. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    I don't disagree with your summary, but there were three things that led me to think they'd take a more aggressive approach this year: they reset the tax last year, they have finished in last place 3 of the last 4 years, and they are currently ~$94 million under the first threshold for next...
  15. Yo La Tengo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Is there a refund policy for the hours I have spent tracking Jordan Montgomery this offseason? I am thoroughly frustrated with the failure to add more starting pitching since I think this team is otherwise in a position to compete this year and in the coming years. Plus, being competitive...